Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidates for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, as indicated by President Trump, who has expressed dissatisfaction with the current Chair, Jerome Powell, and is considering new candidates for the position [3][6]. Candidate Selection Process - The candidate list for the Federal Reserve Chair has been narrowed down from 11 to 5 individuals, with interviews ongoing. The final decision is expected to be made before Christmas [5][10]. - Current candidates include Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Kevin Warsh, and Kevin Hassett, with Hassett being viewed as the frontrunner with a 47% probability of being appointed [7][9]. Criticism of Current Policies - Candidates have publicly criticized the current Federal Reserve policies, with Kevin Warsh stating that the Fed is hindering stronger economic growth and calling for a reduction in the balance sheet and interest rates [9]. - Hassett also echoed similar sentiments, suggesting that the Fed has made several policy mistakes and should return to an independent, data-driven approach [9].

哈塞特在周一接受媒体采访时指出，当前就业市场正在发出复杂信号。他解释道，企业发现人工智能极大提高了现有员工的生产效率，以至于他们不一定需 要雇佣刚毕业的大学生。这种变化可能导致劳动力市场出现短暂停顿。 关于货币政策，哈塞特强调现在是美联储真正以数据为导向的时候了。经济学家们认为，劳动力市场走弱可能促使美联储下月再次降息二十五个基点。 尽管如此，哈塞特对经济前景保持乐观。他认为由于产出增长和收入增长非常强劲，自由市场将相对快速地解决这个问题。随着新的消费方式出现，这种由 技术调整引起的劳动力市场波动不会持续太久。 白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特近日公开表示，人工智能技术的广泛应用正显著提升员工生产率，这可能导致企业放缓招聘步伐，使劳动力市场进入一段"平静 期"。不过他强调，这种由AI引发的就业市场疲软将是暂时现象。 数据显示，人工智能对就业市场的影响已经显现。斯坦福大学一项研究发现，在AI暴露度最高的职业中，二十二至二十五岁早期职业者的就业率相对于暴 露度较低的职业下降了百分之十三。另一份报告则直接指出，人工智能在今年一至九月期间导致了一万七千三百多个岗位被裁减。 ...

国债期货日报 2025/11/19 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注央行政策操作 盘面点评： 周三期债低开后快速下探，此后低位震荡，品种全线收跌。资金面缓解，DR001在回落至1.42%附近。公开 市场逆回购3105亿，净投放1150亿。 重要资讯： 1.财政部5年、7年国债加权中标收益率分别为1.5610%、1.6720%，边际中标收益率分别为1.5907%、 1.6985%，全场倍数分别为3.95、4.86。 2.贝森特：特朗普将在圣诞节前决定美联储新主席人选。 3.日媒：中国已向日本通报暂停进口日本水产品。 行情研判： 今日 A股反弹，债市受到一定影响。资金面边际转松，一级市场国债加权中标利率明显低于二级市场，发行 情况不错，但二级市场不为所动。目前股市、资金面、新债发行均不是影响市场的关键因素，短期市场缺乏 有力驱动。在货币政策缺乏信号的情况下，短期市场难以打破震荡格局，中期在基本面支持下仍有一定上涨 空间。操作上，中期多单继续持有。 | | 2025-11-19 | 2025-11-18 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-11-19 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of new regulations for currency brokerage firms in China marks a significant shift in the oversight of the financial sector, aiming to enhance transparency and accountability in brokerage activities [3][4][17]. Regulatory Changes - The National Financial Supervision Administration revised the "Management Measures for Currency Brokerage Companies," effective from August 1, 2025, marking the first comprehensive overhaul in 20 years [3][11]. - The People's Bank of China issued the "Management Measures for Interbank Market Brokerage Business," effective January 1, 2026, which delineates the boundaries for brokerage activities in the interbank market [3][11]. Key Provisions of the Regulations - The new regulations clarify the permissible activities for brokerage firms, allowing them to provide brokerage services in various markets while prohibiting them from engaging in bond issuance activities [7][8]. - A set of strict rules, or "red lines," has been established, including prohibitions on holding positions, controlling trading accounts, and manipulating markets [8][20]. - All brokerage activities must be traceable, requiring real-time and accurate disclosure of quotes and transactions, with all communications stored securely for at least five years [8][9]. Institutional Requirements - The revised regulations define "currency brokerage companies" as licensed non-bank financial institutions with a minimum registered capital of 100 million yuan [13][14]. - The scope of services has been expanded to include gold and derivatives, allowing these companies to provide brokerage services for a wider range of financial instruments [14][15]. Market Impact - The first successful gold inquiry spot transaction under the new regulations was facilitated by Shanghai Guoli Currency Brokerage Co., indicating increased market activity and liquidity [18][19]. - The role of gold brokers is now defined as "transparent intermediaries," with strict rules against self-dealing and price manipulation [20]. Industry Dynamics - The regulatory changes are expected to shift the industry landscape from "gray intermediaries" to licensed brokers and in-house brokerage departments within large financial institutions [25]. - The business model is transitioning from profit through price differentials to value creation through transparency and data services [26][27]. Regulatory Focus - The emphasis of regulation has shifted from merely preventing incidents to ensuring accountability and traceability in brokerage activities [29].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve plans to significantly reduce the scope of regulatory oversight on bank safety and soundness, raising market concerns [1] - Trump hinted that the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair has been determined, expressing frustration over the resistance faced in dismissing Powell [1] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that Trump may announce the nomination for the next Federal Reserve Chair before Christmas [1] Group 2 - Richmond Fed President Barkin supports Powell's view that a rate cut in December is not a foregone conclusion [3] - Fed Governor Barr expressed concerns that loosening regulations could lead to risk accumulation, potentially setting the stage for future crises [3] - Political uncertainty in the UK has increased, with nearly half of Labour Party voters wanting leader Starmer to step down before the next election, according to a Times poll [3] Group 3 - The Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Pill, emphasized that persistent inflation above target should not be overlooked, with expectations for inflation to gradually decline [3] - The Monetary Policy Committee believes that the neutral interest rate level is between 2% and 4% [3] - Japanese government economic strategy advisors indicated that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates before March next year [3] - Bank of Japan Governor Ueda and other officials held a meeting to discuss economic policy, with Ueda suggesting a gradual approach to adjusting monetary easing [3]

新华财经北京11月19日电（马萌伟）上周，人民币汇率在美元回落的影响下升至年内新高，人民币对美 元中间价保持升值不过速率有所回落。 具体数据显示，美元指数跌0.26%报99.28；在岸人民币兑美元累计涨218个基点报7.1007，离岸人民币 兑美元累计涨271个基点报7.0991，中间价累计调升11个基点报7.0825。 分析认为，在当前美元指数反弹有限和中间价稳步升值的环境下，人民币汇率仍将保持偏低波动，并对 美元有望维持偏强态势。接下来要重点关注美元走势和人民币对美元汇率中间价调控力度。 美元反弹有限人民币汇率创年内新高 在美国联邦政府上周结束停摆、包括非农报告在内的一系列数据发布前，交易员正加紧为美元波动性上 升做准备，美元指数上周自进入9月以来首次连续第二周收跌，人民币汇率在美元回落的影响下明显走 高。 14日，在岸人民币兑美元逼近7.09，最高升至7.0912，创一年来新高；离岸人民币兑美元一度升至 7.0900。 但值得注意的是，人民币中间价虽升破年内高点，不过速率较有所放缓。分析称，这或是由于人民币汇 率刷新年内高点，且临近年末，结汇资金集中出现等因素有关。与前几周相比，逆周期因子调节幅度趋 于 ...

文件明确写道："委员们认为，在评估新数据揭示的产能闲置程度、劳动力市场前景以及货币政策限制 程度的判断时，他们可以保持耐心。" 凯投宏观经济学家Abhijit Surya表示，11月会议纪要进一步强化了澳洲联储"继续观察等待"的短期立 场。但他仍预计，该行在2026年底前可能再降息50个基点，"只是整体风险更偏向'少降而不是多降'"。 Surya认为，若劳动力市场后续出现走软迹象、通胀持续受控，澳洲联储在明年下半年仍将保留一定的 政策操作空间。 然而，多数分析指出，在工资增速居高不下、生产率低迷的双重约束下，任何降息举措都将面临通胀反 弹的风险。未来数月的关键经济数据，将成为决定澳洲货币政策路径的核心依据。 11月18日公布的澳洲联储货币政策会议纪要显示，鉴于劳动力市场依然紧张、劳动生产率增长持续乏 力，委员会的关注重点已从"是否继续降息"转向"进一步降息的可能幅度"。 尽管澳大利亚劳动力市场保持相对紧张，工资增长整体呈现温和态势，但结构性矛盾正加剧货币政策制 定的复杂性。 澳大利亚第三季度工资价格指数环比上涨0.8%，同比上涨3.4%。增速与澳洲联储对全年工资增长的预 测基本一致。 安永资深经济学家Paul ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to keep social financing conditions relatively loose and promote a reasonable recovery of prices [4]. - The stock index is expected to continue its volatile pattern with support at the bottom and pressure on the upside. Short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and a new driving force is awaited for the index to rise further [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Macro - Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.53% with a 1.66bp increase, DR007 at 1.52% with a 0.03bp increase, GC001 at 1.69% with a 35.50bp increase, GC007 at 1.56% with a 5.50bp increase, SHBOR 3M at 1.58% unchanged, LPR 5 - year at 3.50% unchanged, 1 - year treasury at 1.40% with a - 0.10bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.54% unchanged, 10 - year treasury at 1.80% with a 0.05bp increase, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.13% with a - 1.00bp change [3]. - **Open - Market Operations**: Last week, the central bank conducted 1.122 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 626.2 billion yuan. This week, 1.122 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits will mature on Thursday [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 fell 0.65% to 4568, the SSE 50 fell 0.3% to 3003, the CSI 500 fell 1.17% to 7151, and the CSI 1000 fell 1% to 7448. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.9261 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 15.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed lower, with Internet services, cultural media, and education sectors leading the gains, and coal, battery, steel, fertilizer, energy metals, shipping ports, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals sectors leading the losses [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF volume increased by 6.6% to 121,863, and its open interest increased by 2.2% to 278,688; IH volume decreased by 4.3% to 54,759, and its open interest decreased by 3.4% to 97,691; IC volume increased by 15% to 134,440, and its open interest increased by 3.3% to 254,019; IM volume increased by 10.4% to 217,767, and its open interest increased by 19% to 362,020 [5]. - **Premium and Discount**: IF's premium and discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were - 3.75%, 3.40%, 2.96%, and 3.43% respectively; IH's were - 2.36%, 2.12%, 0.88%, and 1.07% respectively; IC's were - 3.03%, 11.73%, 10.63%, and 11.05% respectively; IM's were 4.08%, 15.22%, 13.31%, and 12.89% respectively [7].

证 券 研 究 报 告 刚性"泡沫" ——2026年海外宏观经济展望 证券分析师：赵伟 A0230524070010 陈达飞 A0230524080010 2025.11.19 ◼ 2022年底ChatGPT诞生以来，大类资产价格的泡沫化与分化并存，反映的是AI产业趋势的"强预期"和经济周期"弱现实" 的冲突。2025年，特朗普"对等关税"冲击有惊无险；美国经济"软着陆"；央行"降息潮"继续演绎和美元"意外"走弱； 权益等风险资产与黄金等避险资产"齐飞"。但历史回溯而言，当"强预期"和"弱现实"的割裂演绎到极致时，"泡沫" 破裂的风险或趋于上行。 ◼ 2025年，贸易"前置"推动美国与非美经济"大收敛"——美国"前低后高"、非美"前高后低"。2026年，美、欧、日 经济周期依然存在冲突。美国经济"软着陆"仍是基准假设，私人消费的主要矛盾是"缺钱、缺人、缺工作"，AI资本开支 对GDP的拉动或边际走弱，地产链企稳、但弹性偏弱；欧元区核心国与外围国从分化走向收敛，可关注德国制造的周期性复 苏；日本"物价-工资-利润"良性循环启动，关注内循环的持续性。 ◼ 2026年，美、欧、日货币政策周期趋于分化，财政扩张的力度 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a significant correction on Tuesday, with the TMT sector rising against the trend and the pro-cyclical sectors experiencing a collective decline. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach [2][3]. - The bond market showed a narrow - range oscillation. The central bank's net investment may increase, but if the net investment is less than expected, the tightness of the capital market may continue this week. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations for long - term bonds [5][7]. - The precious metals market showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. In the medium and long term, it is expected to drive the precious metals market to reproduce a bull market similar to that in the 1970s. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options [9]. - The shipping index (European line) showed a downward trend in shock. It is expected to continue the shock pattern in the short term and rise in shock in the short term [11][12]. - The copper market showed a shock operation. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the gradual upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices. It is recommended to focus on the marginal changes in the demand side and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [12][16]. - The alumina market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on whether the production reduction of high - cost enterprises can reverse the supply - demand pattern [17][19]. - The aluminum market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the changes in downstream start - up, inventory depletion rhythm, and overseas policies [21][22]. - The aluminum alloy market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, changes in downstream procurement rhythm, and inventory depletion process [22][24]. - The zinc market showed a shock adjustment. It is recommended to focus on whether there is an improvement in demand and interest - rate cut expectations [24][27]. - The tin market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy on dips [27][31]. - The nickel market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [31][33]. - The stainless - steel market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on the production reduction of steel mills and the price of nickel iron [34][37]. - The lithium carbonate market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [38][41]. - The polysilicon market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to focus on the support of spot prices and the digestion of warehouse receipts [42][43]. - The industrial silicon market showed a small - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the implementation of organic silicon production reduction [44][45]. - The steel market showed a weak trend. It is recommended to try short positions. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge [46][48]. - The iron ore market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see [49][50]. - The coking coal market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to wait and see [51][53]. - The coke market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to wait and see [55][56]. - The meal market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [57][60]. - The pig market showed a sign of stabilization. It is recommended to wait and see [61]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: The A - share market showed a significant correction on Tuesday. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly. The TMT sector rose against the trend, and the pro - cyclical sectors declined significantly [2][3]. - News: Domestically, China protested against Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan. Overseas, the Bank of Japan discussed economic and monetary policies with the prime minister [3]. - Capital: The trading volume of the A - share market was stable, and the central bank had a net investment of 37 billion yuan [3]. - Operation suggestion: Wait for the market to stabilize and mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. If there is a deep decline, consider a bull spread of put options [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: The main contracts of treasury futures all rose, and the yield of major interest - bearing bonds changed little [5]. - Capital: The central bank had a net investment of 37 billion yuan, and the inter - bank market liquidity was tight [5]. - Operation suggestion: Conduct range - bound operations in the short term [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: The US labor market remained resilient, and the US Treasury announced relevant data. The US stock market fell, and precious metals bottomed out and rebounded [8][9]. - Outlook: In the medium and long term, it is expected to drive the precious metals market to reproduce a bull market similar to that in the 1970s. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options [9]. - Capital: The outflow trend of gold and silver ETFs may gradually weaken [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - Shipping index: As of November 17, the SCFIS European line index and the US - West route index both declined [11]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US was different [12]. - Logic: The futures market showed a downward trend in shock. It is expected to continue the shock pattern in the short term [12]. - Operation suggestion: Rise in shock in the short term [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: The price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the market trading atmosphere was average [12]. - Macro: The US government shutdown affected the market liquidity and the Fed's interest - rate cut decision [13]. - Supply: The copper concentrate TC was at a low level, and the production of electrolytic copper decreased in October [14]. - Demand: The operating rate of copper rod processing increased, and the downstream demand was resilient [15]. - Inventory: The LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while the domestic social inventory decreased [15]. - Logic: The macro situation and fundamentals support the copper price. It is recommended to focus on the marginal changes in demand and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [16][17]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 85,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - Spot: The price of alumina decreased, and the supply pattern was gradually relaxed [17]. - Supply: The production of alumina increased in October, and it is expected to continue to be in a surplus situation in November [18]. - Inventory: The inventory of alumina increased [18]. - Logic: The market is in a state of supply - demand relaxation, and the price is expected to continue to be weak and volatile [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [19]. Aluminum - Spot: The price of aluminum decreased, and the market trading was inactive [19]. - Supply: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in October, and it is expected to decrease slightly in November [20]. - Demand: The operating rate of aluminum products decreased, and the demand was under pressure [22]. - Inventory: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was difficult to deplete [22]. - Logic: The aluminum price will fluctuate between macro - positive factors and weak fundamentals. It is recommended to focus on downstream start - up, inventory depletion, and overseas policies [21][22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 21,200 - 21,800 yuan/ton [22]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: The price of aluminum alloy decreased [22]. - Supply: The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased in October, and it is expected to continue to decline in November [23]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum alloy was weak, and the inventory digestion was slow [23]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy decreased slightly [23]. - Logic: The price of ADC12 will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to focus on scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement, and inventory depletion [24]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton [24]. Zinc - Spot: The price of zinc decreased, and the downstream demand was weak [24]. - Supply: The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the supply pressure of refined zinc was relieved [25]. - Demand: The operating rate of primary processing industries was basically stable, and the demand was not strong [26]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory decreased, and the LME inventory increased [26]. - Logic: The supply - demand situation is stable, and the zinc price will fluctuate. It is recommended to focus on demand improvement and interest - rate cut expectations [27]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [27]. Tin - Spot: The price of tin decreased slightly, and the market trading was average [27]. - Supply: The import of tin ore and tin ingots decreased in September, and the supply was still tight [28]. - Demand and inventory: The operating rate of solder decreased in October, and the inventory increased slightly [29]. - Logic: The supply is tight, and the demand in South China is resilient. It is recommended to buy on dips [31]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a low - buying strategy on dips [31]. Nickel - Spot: The price of nickel decreased significantly [31]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel decreased in October, but it was still at a high level [31]. - Demand: The demand for nickel in electroplating and alloys was stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate was weak [32]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory was high, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly [32]. - Logic: The market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price was under pressure. It is recommended to focus on macro - expectations and Indonesian policies [33]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton [33]. Stainless Steel - Spot: The price of stainless steel was stable, and the market trading was inactive [34]. - Raw materials: The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron decreased [34]. - Supply: The production of stainless steel decreased in November, and the supply pressure was still there [35][36]. - Inventory: The social inventory increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [36]. - Logic: The policy and macro - driving forces were insufficient, and the price was expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to focus on steel mill production reduction and nickel iron price [37]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton [38]. Carbonate Lithium - Spot: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the market trading was light [38]. - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate increased in October, and it is expected to continue to increase [39]. - Demand: The demand for lithium carbonate was optimistic, and the inventory decreased [39][40]. - Logic: The price fluctuated in a high - level range. It is recommended to focus on the resumption of production of large enterprises and the marginal changes in demand [41]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [42]. Polysilicon - Spot price: The price of polysilicon was stable [42]. - Supply: The production of polysilicon is expected to decrease in November and increase slightly in December [42]. - Demand: The downstream demand is expected to decline, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [43]. - Inventory: The inventory of polysilicon increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [43]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. It is recommended to focus on the support of spot prices and the digestion of warehouse receipts [43]. - Operation suggestion: The price is expected to be in a high - level shock [44]. Industrial Silicon - Spot price: The price of industrial silicon was stable [44]. - Supply: The production of industrial silicon is expected to decrease in November [44]. - Demand: The demand for industrial silicon is expected to decline, and the inventory decreased [44][45]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range. It is recommended to focus on the implementation of organic silicon production reduction [45]. - Operation suggestion: The price is expected to operate between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [45]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price was stable, and the basis weakened [46]. - Cost and profit: The cost of iron elements had weak support, and the cost of carbon elements had support. The profit of cold - rolled coils was the highest [46]. - Supply: The production of iron elements increased, and the production of five major steel products decreased [46]. - Demand: The domestic demand was weak, and the export was at a high level. The apparent demand decreased [47]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils needed to be further reduced [48]. - View: The price of steel was stable, and the price of coking coal decreased. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge. It is not recommended to go long [48]. Iron Ore - Spot: The price of mainstream iron ore powder increased slightly [49]. - Futures: The price of iron ore futures increased, and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened [49]. - Basis: The optimal delivery product was Carajás fines, and the basis of different varieties was different [49]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal increased, and the demand for iron ore was high [49]. - Supply: The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival at ports decreased [50]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill inventory increased [50]. - View: The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [50]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The price of coking coal futures decreased significantly, and the spot price also showed a downward trend [51]. - Supply: The production of coking coal increased slightly, and the import of Mongolian coal increased [51][53]. - Demand: The demand for coking coal decreased, and the steel mill's replenishment demand was weak [52][53]. - Inventory: The overall inventory increased slightly [52]. - View: The price of coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [53][54]. Coke - Futures and spot: The price of coke futures decreased, and the spot price was expected to be stable in the short term [55][56]. - Profit: The average profit of coking plants was negative [55]. - Supply: The production of coke decreased slightly [55]. - Demand: The demand for coke was affected by the increase in hot - metal output and the decrease in steel mill profit [56]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased slightly [56]. - View: The price of coke is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The price of soybean meal was stable, and the trading volume decreased. The price of rapeseed meal was up and down, and there was no transaction [57][58]. - Fundamentals: The US soybean crushing volume in October exceeded expectations, and the export inspection volume was at the lower end of the expected range. China purchased US soybeans [58][59]. - Outlook: The US soybean demand improved, but the export demand was still weak. The domestic soybean meal supply was loose. It is expected to fluctuate widely [59][60]. Pig - Spot situation: The spot price of pigs oscillated, and there were signs of stabilization [61].