Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent surge in the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Index is driven by improvements in supply-demand structure, changes in the global macro environment, and elevated national strategic priorities, indicating potential sustainability in this market trend [1][10] - The article emphasizes that nonferrous metals are a typical cyclical industry, with prices determined by supply and demand, and are closely tied to macroeconomic conditions and industrial investment [1][11] - The current rise in nonferrous metals is not only cyclical but also influenced by structural themes such as national strategic security, new technology cycles, economic recovery, and changes in global liquidity [1][10] Group 2 - China's strategic mineral resources face two significant issues: high dependence on foreign sources and lack of cost competitiveness in domestic resources [3][4] - The article outlines several national policies aimed at enhancing resource security and promoting high-quality development in the copper, aluminum, and gold industries, with specific targets for resource growth and production capacity [8][9] - Investment in the nonferrous mining sector is projected to reach 208.9 billion yuan in 2024, marking a ten-year high, with significant increases in fixed investment expected in the coming years [9] Group 3 - The article identifies two major drivers for the nonferrous market in 2025: the real demand for metals driven by AI and the increasing gold reserves held by central banks amid a trend towards de-dollarization [11][12] - Economic recovery in China is anticipated to boost demand for industrial nonferrous metals, while global supply constraints and domestic capacity controls are expected to keep supply tight [12][13] - The article highlights the importance of inventory depletion in supporting prices, with specific examples of lithium and aluminum inventory trends [14] Group 4 - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a potential easing of monetary policy, with expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, which could enhance the attractiveness of nonferrous metals [15][16] - The article predicts a mid-term bull market for nonferrous metals driven by a combination of monetary easing, demand growth from emerging sectors, and supply-side constraints [18][20] - The industrial nonferrous index is favored for its clear focus on manufacturing and strong performance compared to broader indices, with significant historical returns and robust profitability metrics [21][25][27] Group 5 - Ordinary investors are advised to consider specific ETFs and mutual funds that focus on the industrial nonferrous sector, emphasizing a strategy of index-based and leading company investments [31][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - 2025 is an atypical volatile bond market. From the perspective of fund product net value and interest - rate bond yield changes, it is a bear market, while from the perspective of credit bonds, it is a bull market [3][6]. - There are four direct reasons for the poor experience in the bond market in 2025: the overdraft effect at the end of last year, less - than - expected monetary easing, intensified supervision, and increased risk appetite [3][9]. - There are four underlying macro - logical reasons: the after - effect of the "924" policy and broad fiscal support for economic stability, repeated Sino - US trade frictions but resilient exports, the continuation of Fed rate cuts and de - dollarization along with policies boosting the risk appetite of the stock and commodity markets, and profound changes in institutional behavior in a low - interest - rate environment [3][14]. - The bond market in 2025 is divided into four stages, with different driving factors and yield changes in each stage [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Four Direct Reasons and Macro - logical Reasons for the Atypical Volatile Market Direct Reasons - **Overdraft effect at the end of last year**: At the end of 2025, the expectation of broad monetary policy and the pre - emptive allocation before the New Year led to a "fast - bull" market. In late November 2025, the market's expectation of a reserve requirement ratio cut increased, and the bond yield dropped rapidly after the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference [9]. - **Less - than - expected monetary easing**: The market expected significant interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts at the beginning of the year, but only one round of cuts occurred in May, and other tools were used to maintain liquidity [9][10]. - **Intensified supervision**: In early August, the government announced the resumption of VAT on new government and financial bonds, and in September, a draft of new regulations on public funds was released, increasing the redemption fee and causing concerns in the market [10]. - **Increased risk appetite and the stock - bond seesaw**: After the reciprocal tariffs, expectations of domestic policy stimulus, tariff cuts, a weakening US dollar, and other factors led to an increase in risk assets. The implementation of anti - involution policies also boosted the commodity market [10]. Macro - logical Reasons - **Policy support for economic stability**: The "924" policy in 2024 and broad fiscal measures supported economic stability, with the GDP in the first half of 2025 growing by 5.3% year - on - year [14]. - **Resilient exports despite trade frictions**: Sino - US trade frictions had two unexpected turns, but China's exports remained resilient, and the bond market's reaction to trade frictions gradually became dull [14]. - **Boosted risk appetite**: Fed rate cuts, de - dollarization, and domestic policies such as the anti - involution policy and the development of the AI industry increased the risk appetite in the stock and commodity markets [19]. - **Changed institutional behavior**: In a low - interest - rate environment, the enthusiasm of institutional investors for bond investment decreased, and the market's cautious attitude restricted the downward space for interest rates [22]. 2. Four - stage Review of the 2025 Bond Market Stage One (January 1 - March 17) - The 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 1.6% to 1.9%. The market mainly traded around the correction of the broad - money expectation, with many negative factors such as Sino - US trade issues, a tech boom, and tightened liquidity [28]. Stage Two (March 18 - June 30) - The 10 - year Treasury yield first dropped significantly and then fluctuated, ranging from 1.6% to 1.9%. The market focused on the loosening of liquidity and Sino - US trade frictions, and the impact of trade frictions gradually weakened [34]. Stage Three (July 1 - September 30) - The 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 1.6% to around 1.9%. The market was mainly affected by the anti - involution policy, a booming equity market, and strict regulations [42]. Stage Four (October 1 - Present) - The 10 - year Treasury yield fluctuated weakly in the range of 1.8% - 1.85%. The bond market was insensitive to trade frictions, and the expectation of monetary easing was not strong [48].

美国财长贝森特进一步建议，美联储可考虑将通胀目标区间调整为1.5%至2.5%或1%至3%。市场普遍将此解读为为美联储降息 开绿灯。 宽松押注白热化 金价创历史新高 近期市场焦点高度集中于美联储下任主席花落谁家。美国总统特朗普态度非常明确，美联储在执行货币政策时必须咨询他的意 见，并称不同意其观点的人永远都不可能成为美联储主席。 在特朗普的一方言论之下，候选人在公开场合狂飙鸽派言论。候选人之一美联储理事沃勒表示，美联储仍存在可观的降息空 间。另一名获特朗普频繁暗示的候选人则持续释放鸽派的言论，称美联储在降息问题上远落后于经济形势。 【重要声明：上述内容及观点由第三方合作平台智昇提供，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，投资者据此操作，风险自担。】 据美国媒体透露，美国总统特朗普极有可能在新年第一周公布下任美联储主席人选。这意味着未来一周内，围绕主席职位的角 逐将更趋激烈，市场加大对美联储宽松的押注，美元指数明显走弱。 中东恐再生变 避险有所升温 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，美元信用危机是驱动黄金上涨的根本逻辑，且这一逻辑并未改变。叠加地缘摩擦存 在升级风险，同时众多央行仍然延续购买黄金的行动，黄金价格延续牛 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the precious metals market saw gold leading the rise and silver booming. In 2026, precious metals will remain in a pattern of being prone to rise and hard to fall under the triple narratives of the politicization of the Federal Reserve, the decline of the US dollar credit, and the silver spot crisis [1][2][130]. - For gold, the weakening of the US dollar system will continuously boost its allocation value due to the Fed's independence crisis, the impact of the mid - term elections, and the long - term erosion of the US dollar credit [1][130]. - For silver, the supply - demand contradiction will be further intensified by low inventory, potential import tariffs, and strong demand from various sectors [2][131]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Review - In 2025, both domestic and overseas precious metals continued to be strong, with silver breaking through the historical peak in April 2011 in the fourth quarter. The gold - silver ratio declined by over 15% from its high in September, highlighting the relative strength of silver at the end of the year [9]. - The price of precious metals was mainly affected by policy uncertainties after Trump took office, trade tariff concerns, Fed independence concerns, and the Fed's restart of interest rate cuts. Silver's strength was due to multiple factors such as the advance release of demand, inventory transfer, and strong industrial and investment demand [18]. 3.2 Price Difference Fluctuation and Silver Squeeze Event Elaboration 3.2.1 Trade Tariff Event Leading to Price Difference Fluctuation - From the end of last year to the first quarter of this year, concerns about potential US gold import tariffs led to large - scale arbitrage trading, pushing up the price difference between COMEX gold and London gold. Similar situations recurred in the third quarter due to concerns about copper and other metal tariffs [22][25]. 3.2.2 Silver Spot Shortage and Frequent Squeeze Pressures - In the fourth quarter, the silver market faced frequent squeeze pressures. The key issue is the spot market squeeze, as the low supply elasticity and low inventory of silver cannot meet the strong physical demand. Multiple factors on the demand side have led to frequent long - squeeze short positions in the silver market [28][35][47]. 3.3 Loose Monetary Expectations Expected to Continue to Boost Precious Metals Valuation 3.3.1 Analysis of the Weakness of the US Dollar Index in 2025 - In 2025, the US dollar index was generally weak, falling by about 10% from nearly 110 at the beginning of the year to above 98. The "reciprocal tariff" policy in the second quarter was the direct trigger, and the Fed's interest rate cuts and technical balance - sheet expansion in the second half of the year further weakened the US dollar [70]. 3.3.2 The US Dollar Index in 2026 is Expected to Remain Weak Due to the Unchangeable Loose Monetary Path in the US - The market's expectations for the Fed's monetary policy in 2026 are more optimistic than the Fed's official stance. The US economy's downward pressure and the easing of inflation concerns will support the Fed to continue its loose monetary policy. The Fed's independence is being eroded, and the US mid - term elections in 2026 are expected to exacerbate this problem [77][79][97]. 3.4 Central Bank Gold Purchases are the Foundation, and Investment Demand is the Driver - Since the second half of 2024, the bull market in gold has been mainly driven by the rapid growth of investment demand, which has exceeded central bank gold purchases. Central bank gold purchases still provide important support for gold prices and are a key factor in stabilizing prices during corrections [110][113]. - Gold investment demand mainly includes gold bars, coins, and gold ETFs. Gold ETFs are an important factor affecting gold prices, and their investment usually increases significantly during the Fed's interest rate cut and balance - sheet expansion cycles [116]. 3.5 Precious Metals Market Outlook 3.5.1 2026 Annual Outlook: Gold and Silver Led the Rise in 2025 and Will Reach New Highs in 2026 - In 2026, precious metals will continue to rise, but investors need to pay a higher cost for "political premium." Gold is likely to rise due to the Fed's loose policy, risk aversion, and central bank gold purchases. Silver may outperform gold due to spot squeezes and industrial demand, but its volatility will increase significantly [130][131].

Group 1 - The overall commodity market has experienced significant volatility, with high-volatility assets like silver undergoing deep corrections, impacting gold prices [1] - Gold, as a hard currency, is expected to have stronger and longer-term upward momentum due to the ongoing de-dollarization trend and escalating geopolitical conflicts [1] - As of December 30, 2025, the CSI Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) rose by 0.06%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Zijin Mining (02899) up 2.87% and Jiangxi Copper (600362) up 2.84% [1] Group 2 - The US dollar has entered a depreciation cycle, with the dollar index dropping approximately 10% in 2025, which typically benefits gold prices due to their inverse relationship [3] - The tense situation in Venezuela and global geopolitical risks have heightened the market's focus on gold's safe-haven attributes, supporting gold prices [4] - Three key factors supporting the current gold bull market include the Federal Reserve's resumption of easing, declining confidence in the dollar, and escalating geopolitical risks [4] Group 3 - The Gold Stock ETF (517520) is known for its higher elasticity during gold price increases, making it an attractive investment for those looking to gain from rising gold prices [5] - The ETF closely tracks the CSI Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) and selects high-quality gold industry companies from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong markets, allowing investors to capture gold price gains effectively [5] - Investing in this ETF can help diversify individual stock risks while providing exposure to the entire gold industry [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings Black Industry - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] Financial - CSI 500: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000: Rebound [3] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Consolidation [3] - Gold: Correction [3] - Silver: Correction [3] Light Industry - Logs: Oscillation [4] - Pulp: Rising [4] - Double - offset paper: Stable oscillation [4] Oilseeds and Oils - Soybean oil: Oscillating bearish [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating bearish [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Bullish [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Oscillation [9] Polyester - PX: Wide - range oscillation [9] - PTA: Wide - range oscillation [9] - MEG: Low - level oscillation [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Viewpoints The report analyzes various industries including black industry, finance, light industry, oilseeds and oils, agricultural products, soft commodities, and polyester It evaluates the current supply - demand situation, policy impacts, and market trends of each industry's products and provides corresponding investment ratings and short - to medium - term trend predictions [2][3][4][6][7][9] Summary by Directory Black Industry - **Iron ore**: High supply, weak demand, and high inventory remain unchanged The real demand is weak, but short - term policy changes bring bullish sentiment, and the futures continue a technical rebound Long - term short - selling opportunities should be considered after restocking [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: The fourth round of coke price cuts is expected to be proposed by the end of the month and implemented in early January End - of - year production capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies provide support, but steel export policies may have a negative impact on raw material demand and prices [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Policy changes bring short - term bullish sentiment, but steel export policies may reduce export volume and impact raw material prices The current steel price is expected to remain bottom - oscillating [2] - **Glass**: The domestic float glass spot market is declining, with high inventory due to weak demand Attention should be paid to macro policies and production line cold - repair [2] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: The market is in short - term oscillation, with some sectors showing capital inflows or outflows The scale of public funds has reached a new high, but stock and hybrid funds have declined [3] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is flat, and the central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations The bond market shows a slight rebound [3] - **Precious metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the US economic data affect its price It is currently in a short - term correction [3] Light Industry - **Logs**: The spot market price shows a differentiated trend, with supply pressure easing and demand relatively weak The price is expected to oscillate [4] - **Pulp**: The cost supports the pulp price, but demand is weak due to low profitability in the papermaking industry and high inventory in paper mills The price may oscillate [4] - **Double - offset paper**: The supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides some support Price increases are expected to continue, but the fundamental support is weak [4] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in November, and the inventory pressure is high The demand for bio - diesel is uncertain, and the supply of domestic oils is abundant The market is oscillating bearish [6] - **Meals**: The global soybean inventory is relatively loose, and the supply of soybean meal will be sufficient in the future The price is expected to oscillate [6] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average transaction weight may decline, and demand is expected to increase due to the approaching New Year's Day The pig price is expected to rise slightly [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Production in major domestic and foreign rubber - producing areas is affected by weather, and the demand is weakly supported The inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period, and the price is expected to oscillate [9] Polyester - **PX**: The conflict in Russia and Ukraine increases supply risks, and the PX price is in wide - range oscillation [9] - **PTA**: Oil price fluctuations affect the cost, and the short - term supply - demand improves, but the long - term outlook is poor The price follows the cost [9] - **MEG**: There is long - term inventory pressure, but imports may decrease in the next two months The price is in low - level oscillation [9] - **PR**: Supply increases, and the market is under pressure, expected to oscillate weakly [9] - **PF**: The inventory is low, but downstream orders are insufficient The market is expected to oscillate [9]

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices have dropped significantly after reaching historical highs, with declines of 4.6% for gold and 14.3% for silver, as traders returned from the Christmas holiday [1] - The surge in speculative activity in China has contributed to the volatility in precious metal prices, with gold nearing $4550/oz and silver around $84/oz [1] - The solar energy sector is increasingly using copper instead of silver, leading to a decline in silver demand despite the growth in global photovoltaic installations [2][4] Group 2 - Despite the ongoing growth in solar installations, silver demand in the solar industry is expected to decline by 2025 due to rising silver prices prompting manufacturers to cut costs [2] - The silver market is experiencing a shortage, with projections indicating that global silver supply will lag behind demand for the sixth consecutive year, although the gap will be the smallest since 2021 [4] - The Chinese government's decision to implement silver export licenses starting January 1, 2026, has further fueled interest in silver, particularly in China and the U.S. [4] Group 3 - The spot price of silver reached a peak of $83.90/oz in London, while gold was just 65 cents shy of $4550/oz [5] - The borrowing costs for gold and silver remain high, with silver lending rates at 6.6%, indicating tight supply conditions [5] - As of December 29, the largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, reported a decrease in holdings by 84.6 tons, while the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw a minor reduction of 0.86 tons [8]

据智通财经消息，12月30日，早盘贵金属板块大面积低开，白银有色跌停，豫光金铅、兴业银锡、贵研 铂业、晓程科技跌幅靠前。 消息面上，隔夜国际贵金属价格大幅收跌，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货价格跌4.45%，报4350.2美元/ 盎司；COMEX白银期货价格跌7.2%，报71.64美元/盎司。现货白银价格大跌近9%，现货钯价格跌超 15%，现货铂价格跌超14%。 12月30日，国内黄金饰品价格对比显示，多家黄金珠宝品牌公布的境内足金首饰价格较昨日均大幅回 调，老凤祥报价1363元/克，老庙黄金报价1359元/克，周大福报价1363元/克，六福珠宝报价1403元/ 克。周生生足金饰品标价1353元/克，较前一日1406元克的价格下跌53元/克。 能出现更严重下跌，从而表明短期市场顶部已经形成。 就在白银价格高位震荡之际，前桥水基金大宗商品主管、现任Black Snow Capital创始人兼首席执行官的 Alexander Campbell警告称，白银当前面临多重短期风险。 黄金白银或现更严重下跌 受投资者获利回吐、短期期货交易者多头平仓影响，国际黄金、白银期货价格29日大幅下跌，金价跌幅 一度超过4.5%，银价 ...

Group 1 - Nvidia's stock price plummeted 17% in a single day, resulting in a market value loss of nearly $600 billion, marking the largest single-day market loss in U.S. stock market history [1] - The emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese company, has caused significant concern on Wall Street, as it achieved results comparable to OpenAI's GPT-4 with a training cost of only $5.57 million, compared to OpenAI's $100 million [2][9] - The media has referred to this event as an "Sputnik moment" in the AI field, indicating a significant shift in technological capabilities [3] Group 2 - DeepSeek's success challenges the notion that more computational power is necessary for better AI models, suggesting that smarter algorithms can achieve similar results with less resource investment [9] - The "Six Little Dragons" from Hangzhou, including DeepSeek and other tech companies, have collectively raised over 18 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards technology-driven growth in the region [12][13] - The concept of "embodied intelligence" is gaining traction, with significant investments in humanoid robots and AI that can interact with the physical world, marking a new frontier in AI development [16] Group 3 - The "Guzi economy," referring to the market for anime and gaming merchandise, has grown to a market size of 200 billion yuan, with over 667,000 related enterprises in China [19] - The rise of "digital nomads," who work remotely and travel, is reshaping workplace dynamics and challenging traditional office structures [20] - Gold prices surged by 70% in 2025, reaching over $4,500 per ounce, driven by a decline in the dollar's global reserve status and increased central bank purchases [23] Group 4 - The competition in the food delivery market intensified with JD's entry, leading to significant consumer benefits through aggressive pricing strategies [26] - Nvidia's market capitalization surpassed $5 trillion, making it the first company in history to reach this milestone, reflecting its dominance in the AI hardware market [28][29] - Warren Buffett announced his retirement as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, raising questions about the future of value investing in the rapidly evolving tech landscape [32] Group 5 - SpaceX achieved a record 167 rocket launches in 2025, demonstrating the industrialization of space travel and significantly reducing launch costs [35] - The developments in AI, technology, and consumer behavior in 2025 indicate a transformative year, with implications for various industries and investment strategies [36]

Group 1: Market Overview - The report focuses on various financial and commodity markets, including macroeconomics, foreign exchange, stocks, bonds, and commodities [1][2][3] - The overseas market shows strong GDP growth in the US, while the domestic market emphasizes expanding domestic demand and implementing proactive fiscal and monetary policies [2] - The end - of - year market is affected by factors such as low liquidity, holiday effects, and policy expectations [4] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - The RMB exchange rate is expected to end the year stably after a temporary halt in its sharp rise. The focus is on the effect of exchange - rate - stabilizing policies [3][4] - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0098 on the previous trading day, down 13 basis points, and the mid - price was 7.0331, up 27 basis points [3] Group 3: Stocks - The stock index faces pressure to break through at high levels and is expected to fluctuate and accumulate momentum in the short term. After the New Year, there is a greater probability of a spring rally [4][5] - The CSI 300 index closed down 0.38 on the previous trading day, and the trading volume of the two markets decreased slightly [4] Group 4: Bonds - The bond market is not pessimistic in the medium term. Although the bond futures fell sharply on Monday, the view is to hold mid - term long positions and intervene in short - term long positions on dips [5][6] - The bond futures opened sharply lower on Monday and then fluctuated narrowly. The overnight funds were loose, but the cross - year funds were tight [5] Group 5: Commodities - Precious Metals - Platinum and palladium prices dropped significantly due to factors such as profit - taking, exchange risk - control measures, and pre - holiday risk aversion. The long - term bullish foundation remains, but short - term risks are high [7][8][9] - Gold and silver prices also experienced a sharp decline. The short - term is weak, and the long - term is still optimistic. It is recommended to reduce positions or clear positions in the short term [10][11][12] Group 6: Commodities - Base Metals - Copper prices fell due to pre - holiday profit - taking. The short - term adjustment does not change the long - term upward trend, and it is recommended to watch more and act less before the holiday [13][15] - Aluminum faces short - term adjustment pressure, while alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up performance [15][16] - Zinc, nickel - stainless steel, and tin are expected to fluctuate widely, and lithium carbonate is recommended to focus on long - term value and avoid short - term risks [17][20][21] Group 7: Commodities - Black Metals - Steel prices such as rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with support from the cost side and pressure from weak demand [28][29] - Iron ore prices fluctuate with high supply and rigid demand balancing each other [30] - Coking coal and coke are facing a fourth - round price cut, and the future trend depends on supply and demand changes [31][33] - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space may be limited [34][35] Group 8: Commodities - Energy and Chemicals - Pulp prices fell due to market sentiment, while offset paper prices rose due to cost support. It is recommended to wait and see [37][39][40] - LPG has near - term support but is under pressure in the medium - term [41][42] - PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips face a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. It is necessary to pay attention to supply and demand changes and cost factors [43][45][48] - Methanol is recommended to buy at low prices, while PP, PE, pure benzene - styrene, and other products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [49][53][60] - Rubber is expected to fluctuate widely, and glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [61][64][65] - Logs are expected to fluctuate without clear upward or downward drivers, and propylene is recommended to pay attention to marginal changes [68][69][70] Group 9: Agricultural Products - The supply and demand of live pigs in the peak season need to be verified. The long - term can be bullish, but the short - term is based on fundamentals [72][73][74] - Oilseeds show a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. It is recommended to try a long - short spread strategy with a light position [75][76] - Oils are expected to fluctuate, with palm oil being relatively strong in the sector [77][78] - Cotton prices may experience a short - term correction but have long - term upward potential [79][80] - Sugar prices face increasing upward pressure in the short term [81][82] - Eggs are in a situation of over - capacity in the long term, and it is recommended to participate in a long - position rebound with a light position [83] - Apples face short - term upward pressure, and it is recommended to wait for a retracement to go long [84][85] - Red dates are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to pre - holiday procurement [86][87]