原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：美联储如期降息 库存小幅去化 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 11 日 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 观点：预计价格短期偏强运行，关注宏观情绪和矿端消息。 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复 产情况、消费释放情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-12-11 美联储如期降息25基点，启动"技术性扩表" 市场分析 国内政策预期升温。11月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进 一步促进消费政策措施。11月24日，国家发展改革委价格司组织召开价格无序竞争成本认定工作座谈会。11月28 日，工信部组织召开动力和储能电池行业制造业企业座谈会，强调认真落实党中央关于综合整治"内卷式"竞争的 决策部署，加快推出针对性政策举措，依法依规治理动力和储能电池产业非理性竞争。数据方面，中国10月出口 （以美元计价）同比下降1.1%，前值增8.3%，进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节前抢出口影响，前期的"抢出口" 和"抢进口"有待消化，同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓，国内经济基础有待夯实。中国11 月官方制造业PMI环比回升至49.2，高技术制造业PMI连续10个月位于临界点50以上，受高基数影响非制造业PMI 小幅回落。中国11月外贸增速大幅回升，以美元计价出口同比转增5.9%，进口同比增1.9%；稀土出口环比增长26.5%， 大豆进口环比降14.5%。中共中央政治局会议明确指出，明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing price stability with cautious downstream purchasing, while supply pressures remain high and demand is weak, leading to limited inventory depletion [3] Supply - In November, the crude steel output of 43 domestic stainless steel plants is estimated at 3.4592 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 61,800 tons (1.6% decline) but a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - December's stainless steel crude steel output is projected to be 3.2857 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.02% and a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - The production of the 300 series is expected to be 1.7147 million tons in December, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.6% [2] - Steel mills are facing limited production cuts, with increased maintenance schedules towards year-end potentially leading to more proactive reductions due to loss pressures [2] Inventory - Social inventory depletion is insufficient, with a trend of decline in warehouse receipts [2] - As of December 5, social inventory of the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 492,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2,800 tons [2] - On December 10, stainless steel futures inventory is 61,498 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 839 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight strengthening towards the end of the trading day, while high-price transactions are limited due to cautious purchasing [3] - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike and domestic policy adjustments, with upcoming central economic work meetings to be monitored [3] - Nickel ore market remains stable, with Philippine mines primarily fulfilling previous orders and no new tenders from northern mines [3] - Nickel-iron transaction prices have risen to around 900 yuan per nickel (tax included), indicating a slight recovery in iron plant profits [3] - Demand remains weak in the off-season, particularly in the home appliance and construction decoration sectors, leading to limited order releases and low inventory depletion [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's interest - rate cut and expansionary signals, along with China's relatively loose policy signals, create a positive sentiment in the有色金属 market. Different metals have different price trends based on their own supply and demand fundamentals [5][8]. - For copper, short - term prices are expected to continue rising, supported by supply tightening expectations [5]. - For aluminum, prices are expected to rebound due to factors such as inventory reduction and supply disruptions [8]. - For lead, the price shows a relatively strong trend in the short - term as the social inventory of lead ingots is at a low level [10]. - For zinc, in the short - term, the price is expected to follow copper and aluminum to strengthen, but the medium - term supply surplus cycle remains unchanged [12]. - For tin, after the release of macro risks, the price may stabilize and strengthen [15]. - For nickel, the short - term price may turn to a volatile trend [17]. - For lithium carbonate, there may be no clear trend in the short - term, and price fluctuations are likely to be large [20]. - For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term as the price is approaching the cost line and the supply reduction expectation is increasing [23]. - For stainless steel, the market is waiting for effective supply - side control and the release of downstream demand to break the current deadlock [26]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the price is likely to follow the aluminum price in the short - term [29]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper Market Information - The Fed's interest - rate cut and bond - buying plan led to a 0.78% increase in the LME 3M copper contract to $11,559 per ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 91,770 yuan per ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 700 tons to 164,975 tons, and the domestic daily warehouse receipt decreased by 0.1 tons to 29,000 tons [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - Short - term prices are expected to continue rising, with the SHFE copper main contract operating in the range of 91,200 - 93,300 yuan per ton and the LME 3M copper in the range of $11,450 - $11,800 per ton [5]. Aluminum Market Information - The Fed's actions led to a 0.6% increase in LME aluminum to $2,862 per ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,960 yuan per ton. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased slightly, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 521,000 tons [7]. Strategy Viewpoint - Prices are expected to rebound, with the SHFE aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,800 - 22,200 yuan per ton and the LME 3M aluminum in the range of $2,830 - $2,900 per ton [8]. Lead Market Information - The SHFE lead index fell 0.26% to 17,121 yuan per ton, and the LME 3S lead fell $4.5 to $1,987.5 per ton. The domestic lead ingot social inventory decreased to 20,400 tons [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - The short - term price shows a relatively strong trend due to low social inventory of lead ingots [10]. Zinc Market Information - The SHFE zinc index rose 0.08% to 23,095 yuan per ton, and the LME 3S zinc rose $3 to $3,103.5 per ton. The zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 430 tons to 136,000 tons [11]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the short - term, the price is expected to strengthen following copper and aluminum, but the medium - term supply surplus cycle remains [12]. Tin Market Information - On December 10, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract rose 3.30% to 322,630 yuan per ton. The supply shortage has been slightly alleviated, but there are still concerns. The demand in traditional fields is weak, while emerging fields provide long - term support [14]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the release of macro risks, the price may stabilize and strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 300,000 - 330,000 yuan per ton and the overseas LME tin in the range of $39,000 - $42,000 per ton [15]. Nickel Market Information - The SHFE nickel main contract fell 0.64% to 116,150 yuan per ton. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price rebounded [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - The short - term price may turn to a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see, with the SHFE nickel price operating in the range of 113,000 - 118,000 yuan per ton and the LME 3M nickel in the range of $13,500 - $15,500 per ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index rose 0.99% to 91,969 yuan. The LC2605 contract closed at 95,980 yuan, up 3.43% [19]. Strategy Viewpoint - There may be no clear trend in the short - term, and price fluctuations are likely to be large. It is recommended to wait and see, with the LC2605 contract operating in the range of 93,200 - 98,600 yuan per ton [20]. Alumina Market Information - On December 10, 2025, the alumina index fell 2.16% to 2,541 yuan per ton. The Shandong spot price fell to 2,710 yuan per ton, and the overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price fell to $311 per ton [22]. Strategy Viewpoint - It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term as the price is approaching the cost line and the supply reduction expectation is increasing. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2,400 - 2,700 yuan per ton [23]. Stainless Steel Market Information - The stainless steel main contract rose 0.44% to 12,555 yuan per ton. The social inventory decreased to 1,080,300 tons, with a 0.54% month - on - month decrease [25]. Strategy Viewpoint - The market is waiting for effective supply - side control and the release of downstream demand to break the current deadlock [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The main AD2602 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose 0.58% to 20,930 yuan per ton. The domestic three - place inventory decreased to 49,000 tons [28]. Strategy Viewpoint - The price is likely to follow the aluminum price in the short - term [29].

FICC日报 | 2025-12-10 关注中国11月通胀数据和美联储利率决议 市场分析 国内政策预期升温。11月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进 一步促进消费政策措施。11月24日，国家发展改革委价格司组织召开价格无序竞争成本认定工作座谈会。11月28 日，工信部组织召开动力和储能电池行业制造业企业座谈会，强调认真落实党中央关于综合整治"内卷式"竞争的 决策部署，加快推出针对性政策举措，依法依规治理动力和储能电池产业非理性竞争。数据方面，中国10月出口 （以美元计价）同比下降1.1%，前值增8.3%，进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节前抢出口影响，前期的"抢出口" 和"抢进口"有待消化，同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓，国内经济基础有待夯实。中国11 月官方制造业PMI环比回升至49.2，高技术制造业PMI连续10个月位于临界点50以上，受高基数影响非制造业PMI 小幅回落。中国11月外贸增速大幅回升，以美元计价出口同比转增5.9%，进口同比增1.9%；稀土出口环比增长26.5%， 大豆进口环比降14.5%。中共中央政治局会议明确指出，明年经 ...

位。(3) 短纤价格继续跟随成本紧密波动。 能源化 (1) 苯乙烯市场整体维持窄幅震荡。 (2) 出口的讨论提供一定 支撑,但聚合物市场销售疲软。(3)美国汽油需求转弱,调油料 价格下行,高辛烷值组分价格下行。 (1) 出口情绪稍缓, 内需不足上方空间有限。 (2) 下方有反内 尿素 卷及成本端支撑。 (1) 检修减少,开工负荷高位。(2)远洋到港,供应增加。( 3) 下游需求开工走弱。（4）原油价格走低,油制成本下降。 (1) 检修较少,开工负荷较高,供应压力偏大。(2) 下游改善 不及预期。(3)丙烯单体高位,成本支撑较强。(4)原油价格 走低,油制成本下降。 (1) 盘面回归基本面。 (2)后续检修较少,新产能放量,供应 PVC 压力攀升。 需求减弱, 订单不佳。 (1) 广西氧化铝投前开始送货,部分氧化铝厂延迟投产,采购节 奏放缓。（2）开工负荷较高,检修较少。(3)山东烧碱存在累 库压力,液氯价格居高不下。(4)临近交割月,01合约持仓异 常,出现空逼多现象。 (1) 地缘/关税缓和,国际油气回归基本面宽松逻辑。(2) CP/ FEI近期回补修复上行。(3)华南茂名石化乙烯装置计划检修, 届时至1月 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：淡季施压上方空间 关注美联储会议 以伊冲突 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 10 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 逻辑:昨日沪铝高位调整。宏观上就业市场数据好于预期，凸显出在美联储 预期降息之前劳动力市场仍有韧性，决策者可能会强调通胀风险，这可能制约进 一步的宽 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a period of price stability, with fluctuations in production and inventory levels, while demand remains weak in the off-season [3][4]. Supply - In November, the crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel plants is estimated at 3.4592 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 61,800 tons, representing a decline of 1.6%, but a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2]. - The production forecast for December is 3.2857 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.02%, but a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2]. - The 300 series output is expected to be 1.7147 million tons in December, down 4.4% month-on-month and down 7.6% year-on-year [2]. - Steel mills are facing limited production cuts, but year-end maintenance is increasing, and some companies may arrange for early annual maintenance due to loss pressures [2]. Inventory - Social inventory reduction is insufficient, with a trend of decline in warehouse receipts [2]. - As of December 5, the social inventory of the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 492,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2,800 tons [2]. - On December 8, stainless steel futures inventory stood at 61,556 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1,442 tons [2]. Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with recent price increases from steel mills and the transfer of inventory pressure to agents and traders [3]. - The nickel ore market remains stable, with Philippine mines primarily fulfilling previous orders, while Indonesian domestic benchmark prices have decreased by $0.52 to $0.91 per wet ton [3]. - Nickel-iron transaction prices have risen to around 900 yuan per nickel (including tax), with the market's bargaining range adjusted upwards, and iron mills' profit losses have somewhat recovered [3]. - Demand remains weak in the off-season, with limited order releases in downstream sectors such as home appliances and construction decoration, leading to a general reliance on just-in-time inventory [3]. Short-term Outlook - The market is expected to experience a period of adjustment within the range of 12,400 to 12,800 yuan [4]. - Overall, while macroeconomic conditions are stabilizing and supply pressures are easing, weak demand in the off-season and insufficient inventory reduction are significant challenges [3].

不过，中国人民大学副校长郑新业表示，"十五五"时期，我国依然面对全球经济复苏乏力，地缘政治冲 突持续，国际产业链、供应链重构等问题，从内部看，经济转型过程中的结构性矛盾尚未完全解决，科 技创新的"卡脖子"问题仍需突破，区域发展不平衡、城乡差距等问题仍需持续破解，高质量发展的内涵 式增长路径仍需进一步探索。 对此，会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要加快构建新发展格局，着力推动高质量发展，坚持稳中求进工 作总基调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，更好统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性。 华夏时报记者 张智 北京报道 12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。这是中央经济工作会议的前瞻会议， 为明年中国经济发展确定方向。 2025年是中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义的一年，过去5年，我们有效应对各种冲击挑战，我国经 济、科技、国防等硬实力和文化、制度、外交等软实力明显提升，"十四五"即将圆满收官，第二个百年 奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局。 会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集 ...

tion of the w K # 17 10 all of the relation and Bank t = 30 DINGTON 1 10 01 11 日 01 100 al = 中國日 1 al 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 11 一周五 10 8-3" 85 ll E. 哥哥 126 2025年12月8日，中共中央政治局会议为2026年经济工作定下"稳中求进、提质增效"的总基调，"更加积极有为的宏观政策"与"坚持内需主导"等八大部署形 成清晰政策框架。恰逢美联储议息会议启幕，外部货币政策环境的潜在宽松窗口，与国内政策的精准发力形成呼应。在"十五五"开局的关键节点，内外因素 的协同共振，让2026年中国经济质的有效提升与量的合理增长路径愈发清晰。 政治局会议释放的核心信号，是宏观政策将延续"积极+宽松"组合并强化协同效应。这一基调的确立，既基于2026年作为"十五五"开局之年的发展需求，也 源于对经济运行主要矛盾的精准把握。会议明确的"更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"双轮驱动，为经济增长提供了稳定预期。 更加积极的财政政策将在支出力度与可持续性之间寻求精准平衡。粤开证券首席经济学 ...