财政支出方面，唐龙生表示，财政支出靠前发力，重点领域支出保障有力。今年以来，财政部门加强资 源统筹，加大支出强度，优化支出结构，民生、科技等国家重大战略领域得到较好保障。前三季度，全 国一般公共预算支出20.81万亿元，同比增长3.1%。其中，社会保障和就业支出增长10%，教育支出增 长5.4%，卫生健康支出增长4.7%，科学技术支出增长6.5%，节能环保支出增长8.8%，文化旅游体育与 传媒支出增长4%。上述6项支出增幅均为近三年同期最高水平。 财政部国库支付中心副主任唐龙生10月17日在财政部召开的2025年前三季度财政收支情况新闻发布会上 介绍，今年以来，各地区各部门认真落实更加积极有为的宏观政策，迎难而上、沉着应对，我国经济运 行顶住压力、稳中有进，展现出强大韧性和活力。财政政策更加积极、接续发力，着力稳就业、稳企 业、稳市场、稳预期，保持必要支出强度，加大对基本民生和重点领域的经费保障，财政运行总体平稳 有序。 唐龙生介绍，财政收入增幅逐季回升。前三季度，全国一般公共预算收入16.39万亿元，同比增长 0.5%。分季度看，一季度下降1.1%；二季度由降转升，增长0.6%；进入第三季度，7月份增长2. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, Trump restarted the trade war against China, imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese products exported to the US, causing a general decline in commodities at the beginning of the week. Relevant measures were introduced to support energy - saving and carbon - reduction transformation in key industries like steel. The domestic steel demand is expected to decline during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, and enterprises should pay attention to the transition from output control to carbon - emission control. Overseas, short - term funds flowed to US Treasury bonds and gold due to Trump's tariff threat. The IMF predicted that the world economy would grow by 3.2% in 2025, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the July forecast [7]. - In terms of supply and demand, manufacturers maintained normal production to fulfill previous orders. The inventory was at a neutral level, and the short - term cost was supported by the stable price of semi - coke. The spot profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were in the red, at - 445 yuan/ton and - 390 yuan/ton respectively. Technically, the weekly K - line of the ferrosilicon main contract was below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend. It is expected that ferrosilicon will oscillate between 5300 - 5600 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Macro and Overseas**: Trump's tariff threat led to a decline in commodities at the beginning of the week. Measures were introduced for energy - saving and carbon - reduction in the steel industry. The domestic steel demand will decline in the future. Overseas, funds flowed to safe - havens due to the tariff threat, and the IMF raised the world economic growth forecast [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Manufacturers maintained normal production, with a neutral inventory level. The short - term cost was supported by semi - coke. The spot profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were negative [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The weekly K - line of the ferrosilicon main contract was below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: With high - level production and a downward trend in subsequent crude steel output, the alloy is likely to remain in the red. Ferrosilicon is expected to oscillate between 5300 - 5600 [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of October 17, the ferrosilicon futures contract持仓量 was 412,000 lots, an increase of 33,000 lots compared to the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract month - spread was 78, a decrease of 34 points. The number of warehouse receipts was 12,611, a decrease of 3,693. The Ningxia ferrosilicon price was 5,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [9][12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of October 17, the ferrosilicon basis was - 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 points [21]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Industry**: This week (October 16), the national capacity utilization rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 35.48%, a decrease of 0.46% from the previous week. The daily average output was 16,115 tons, a decrease of 2.62%. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel types was 19,572.5 tons, a decrease of 0.92%. The national ferrosilicon weekly supply was 112,800 tons. The national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 69,080 tons, an increase of 4.62% [27][31]. - **Upstream**: As of October 13, the electricity price in Ningxia decreased by 0.01 yuan/kWh, while that in Inner Mongolia increased by 0.005 yuan/kWh. As of October 16, the semi - coke price remained unchanged. The ferrosilicon spot production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11%, and in Ningxia was 5,522 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 0.11%. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 445 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.48%, and in Ningxia was - 392 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.51% [35][38]. - **Downstream**: This week, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.95 tons, a decrease of 0.59 tons compared to the previous week but an increase of 6.59 tons compared to last year. From January to August 2025, China's ferrosilicon export volume was 254,200 tons, a decrease of 25,800 tons compared to the same period last year, a decline of 9.21% [44].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.17」 焦煤市场周报 会议预期库存回落，盘面延续宽幅震荡 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 523家炼焦煤矿山产量：原煤日均产量196.1万吨，环比增12.2万吨。 2. 314家独立洗煤厂：精煤日产26.1万吨，环比增0.5万吨。 3. 炼焦煤总库存（独立焦化厂+6大港口+钢厂）：为1914.16万吨，环比增加21.16万吨，同比下降1.51%。 4. 仓单：唐山蒙5#精煤报1422，折盘面1202 5. 吨焦盈利情况：全国30家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利-13元/吨。 6. 钢厂盈利率：钢厂盈利率55.41%，环比上周减少0.87个百分点，同比去年减少19.05个百分点。 7. 需求端铁水产量：日均铁水产量240.95万吨，环比上周减少0.59万吨，同比去年增加6.59万吨。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 1. 宏观方面，特朗普重 ...

「2025.10.10」 瑞达期货研究院 焦炭市场周报 会议预期钢材去库，焦企亏损二轮提涨 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结2」 行情回顾及展望 1. 宏观方面，特朗普重启对华贸易战，对中国输美产品加征100%关税，周初商品普遍回落；《求是》杂志评论员文章称，根据 形势变化及时实施精准有力的宏观政策，增强政策可预期性，是引导市场形成积极预期的关键；国家发改委印发《节能降碳中 央预算内投资专项管理办法》，支持钢铁等重点行业节能降碳改造；中钢协召开钢铁工业提质升级座谈会。会议指出，"十五五" 期间国内钢铁需求总体呈波动下降趋势，企业要注意产量调控是向碳排放调控的过渡期和关键期。 2. 海外方面，受特朗普威胁中国加收100%关税影响，短期资金转向美债和黄金；国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布最新一期《世界 经济展望报告》，预计2025年世界经济将增长3.2%，较7月预测上调0.2个百分点。 3. 供需方面，需求端，本期铁 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomic factors include Trump restarting the trade war with China, potential for precise macro - policies, support for energy - saving and carbon - reduction in the steel industry, and a predicted decline in domestic steel demand during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. Overseas, short - term funds have shifted to US bonds and gold due to Trump's tariff threats, and the IMF expects the world economy to grow by 3.2% in 2025 [6]. - In terms of supply and demand, pre - holiday inventory has rebounded rapidly, production has slightly declined from a high level, and inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has decreased by 2.1 tons, and iron water production is oscillating at a high level. Profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia are in the negative, and the mainstream steel procurement pricing is still under negotiation [6]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend. It is expected that after October, new production capacity in Inner Mongolia will increase, and the supply pressure will rise. With the national policy of reducing crude steel production, the alloy is likely to remain in a loss state. The manganese - silicon main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5650 - 5850 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Macro**: Trump restarts the trade war with China, adding 100% tariffs on Chinese products exported to the US, causing a general decline in commodities at the beginning of the week. The state may implement precise macro - policies, and the steel industry is supported in energy - saving and carbon - reduction. The domestic steel demand is expected to decline during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [6]. - **Overseas**: Due to Trump's tariff threats, short - term funds shift to US bonds and gold. The IMF expects the world economy to grow by 3.2% in 2025, 0.2 percentage points higher than the July forecast [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Pre - holiday inventory rebounds rapidly, production slightly declines from a high level, and inventory increases for three consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreases by 2.1 tons, and iron water production is at a high level. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is - 145 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is - 270 yuan/ton. The mainstream steel procurement pricing is still under negotiation [6]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: After October, new production capacity in Inner Mongolia is expected to increase, and the supply pressure will rise. With the national policy of reducing crude steel production, the alloy is likely to remain in a loss state. The manganese - silicon main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5650 - 5850 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: As of October 17, the silicon - manganese futures contract's open interest is 598,000 lots, an increase of 33,000 lots. The 5 - 1 contract spread is 42, an increase of 8 points. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipts are 48,976, a decrease of 5,359. The spread between the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon January contracts is 288, a decrease of 76 points [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of October 17, the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price is 5530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The basis is - 168 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 points [24]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Industry**: The production of silicon - manganese is at a high level, with the national capacity utilization rate at 43.28%, an increase of 0.09%. The daily average production is 29,830 tons, an increase of 655 tons. The weekly demand of five major steel types for silicon - manganese is 121,113 tons, a decrease of 0.79%, and the weekly supply of national silicon - manganese is 208,810 tons, an increase of 2.25% [27]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, the national silicon - manganese inventory is 262,500 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons [32]. - **Upstream**: As of October 17, the price of South32 South African semi - carbonate lump at Tianjin Port is 34.0 yuan/ton - degree, a slight increase. As of October 13, the electricity price in Ningxia has decreased by 0.01 yuan/kWh, and that in Inner Mongolia remains unchanged. The port inventory of imported manganese ore is 445.7 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons. The arrival of manganese ore from different countries shows different trends. The silicon - manganese spot profit remains in a loss state [36][41][46]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills is 240.95 tons, a decrease of 0.59 tons from last week but an increase of 6.59 tons compared to last year. The final pricing of Hebei Iron and Steel Group's silicon - manganese in September is 6000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The bond market is influenced by the rebound in the stock market due to tariff black swan events, the continuous expectation of a Fed rate cut, and rising global trade uncertainties. It is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 0.30% year - on - year decrease; PPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Social financing scale is 437.08 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 3.42 trillion yuan (+0.79%); M2 year - on - year is 8.40%, down 0.40% (-4.55%); Manufacturing PMI is 49.80%, up 0.40% (+0.81%) [9]. - The US dollar index is 98.35, down 0.33 (-0.33%); USD/CNH (offshore) is 7.1302, up 0.003 (+0.04%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.42, up 0.01 (+0.35%); DR007 is 1.42, up 0.01 (+0.39%); R007 is 1.53, up 0.02 (+1.49%); Inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) 3M is 1.58, down 0.01 (-0.67%); AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, up 0.00 (-0.67%) [9]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant figures include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the precipitation fund trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the net position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [11][12][14]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Relevant figures include the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local government bonds [22]. IV. Spread Overview - Relevant figures include the inter - term spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [22][23][24]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [26][29][36]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [38][43]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [45][47]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [52][54][58]. Strategy - Unilateral: The repurchase rate has declined, the price of treasury bond futures is oscillating, and the 2512 contract is neutral [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is an adjustment pressure in the medium term, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is relatively weak, and short - term attention should be paid to domestic macro - policy increments. The price of iron ore will fluctuate within a range, and the strategy is to conduct range operations and use covered call options [2][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Situation - The black - series carbon elements were relatively strong yesterday, the price of finished products stabilized, while the iron ore price was relatively weak, and the sentiment of the black - series market remained weak [3]. Supply - The overseas ore shipment decreased slightly month - on - month. The shipment of Rio Tinto in Australia decreased significantly, while that in Brazil was relatively stable. The arrival volume reached a new high this year, and the support from the supply side continued to weaken [3]. Demand - Domestic demand decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level, still supporting the iron ore price. The blast furnace overhauls mainly occurred in Hebei, Shanxi, Jiangsu, and Shandong. The daily average pig iron output in this period was 2.4095 million tons (month - on - month - 0.59), basically the same as the average level in August. High demand still supported the iron ore price to some extent [4]. Inventory - The inventory level at the steel mill decreased slightly month - on - month, and the daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills decreased due to production cuts. Steel mills were about to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The port inventory continued to accumulate month - on - month due to the continuous increase in arrival volume [4].

我们也清醒地看到，当前经济发展仍面临一些困难和挑战。既要正视困难，更要坚定信心。信心，建立 在对我国经济长期发展趋势的准确把握上，建立在对微观主体活力的真切感知上，建立在对我国经济强 大韧性的深刻认识上。凝心聚力办好自己的事，是我们应对一切不确定性的最大确定性。要坚决贯彻落 实好党中央、国务院的决策部署，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，深化改革开放创新，努力完 成全年经济社会发展目标任务，为"十四五"圆满收官、"十五五"良好开局打下坚实基础。 （文章来源：经济日报） 从要素流动感受经济运行的旺盛活力。经济活动的热度，往往直观体现在人流、物流、资金流、信息流 等要素流动上。当前，我国劳动力市场总体稳定，重点群体就业保障有力，人才红利持续释放；全国统 一大市场建设纵深推进，产业链供应链韧性不断增强，社会物流成本稳步降低，经济循环持续改善； 5G、人工智能、大数据等加速与实体经济深度融合，新产业、新业态、新模式蓬勃发展；更加积极的 财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策落实落细，社会融资规模保持快速增长，金融市场平稳运行。这些关键 要素的畅通流动和高效配置，充分证明我国经济肌体强健，内生动力不断增强。 从国际比较看清我国 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a reduction of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month[11] - Food prices fell by 4.4% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.83 percentage points to the CPI decline, making it the primary factor affecting the CPI[12] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.0%, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points, indicating stable demand[14] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in September 2025, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[13] - PPI remained stable month-on-month, showing no change, while the year-on-year decline was influenced by a low base from the previous year[19] - Key industries such as coal processing and black metal smelting saw a reduction in their negative impact on PPI, decreasing by approximately 0.34 percentage points compared to the previous month[21] Group 3: Policy Implications - The low CPI and PPI levels create room for policy adjustments, suggesting the need for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to support economic recovery[30] - The report emphasizes the importance of timely and effective policy measures to enhance economic momentum and fully leverage policy effects[30] Group 4: Risks - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in China-US policies[31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The bond market is affected by the stock market rebound driven by tariff black swan events, with a decline in risk appetite. The continuous expectation of Fed rate cuts and rising global trade uncertainties increase the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 0.30% year - on - year decrease; China's monthly PPI has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year decrease [9] - Monthly updated economic indicators: Social financing scale is 437.08 trillion yuan, with a 3.42 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and a 0.79% increase rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.40%, with a 0.40% month - on - month decrease and a 4.55% decrease rate; Manufacturing PMI is 49.80%, with a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a 0.81% increase rate [10] - Daily updated economic indicators: The US dollar index is 98.68, with a 0.36 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.36% decrease rate; The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.1274, with a 0.015 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.21% decrease rate; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.41, with a 0.01 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.63% decrease rate; DR007 is 1.42, with a 0.01 point month - on - month decrease and a 1.01% decrease rate; R007 is 1.53, with a 0.02 point month - on - month increase and a 1.49% increase rate; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.59, with a 0.01 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.38% decrease rate; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a 0.00 point month - on - month increase and a 0.38% decrease rate [10] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Not elaborated in detail in the text, only mentions related charts such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation fund trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, etc [12][16][25] 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - The text mentions related charts such as the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and the local bond issuance situation [26] 4. Spread Overview - The text mentions related charts such as the inter - period spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures and the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [26] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [30][33][41] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [43][50] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [51][52] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [58][60][64]