瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 螺纹钢市场周报 炉料反弹+宏观利好 螺纹期价止跌走高 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格及价差：截至12月19日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3119（+59），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3320（+40）。（单 位：元/吨/周） 2. 产量：螺纹产量上调。181.68（+2.9），同比（-37.05）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求回升。本期表需208.64（+5.55），（同比-30.04）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库和社库继续下滑。螺纹钢总库存452.54（-26.96），（同比+49.52）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率35.93%，环比上周持平，同比去年减少12.55个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美联储威廉姆斯表示，货币政策已为2026年做 ...

Group 1: Economic Policy Focus - The meeting emphasized "domestic demand as the main driver" for economic growth, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" to promote an economy led by domestic demand and consumption[6] - The macro policy remains "more proactive and effective," with a focus on enhancing policy effectiveness and maintaining a "moderately loose" monetary policy[8] - The narrow fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to be around 4%, with new local special bonds projected to be issued at approximately 4.6 trillion yuan[8] Group 2: Social Welfare and Consumer Support - The meeting highlighted the importance of "people's livelihood," aiming to resolve issues such as overdue payments to enterprises and wages for migrant workers[9] - Policies to stimulate consumption, such as birth subsidies and trade-in programs, are expected to continue to support social expectations[11] - The government aims to create three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027[11] Group 3: Risk Management and Structural Adjustments - Despite a temporary easing of external risks, the focus on social welfare remains high, indicating a commitment to stability and consumer confidence[9] - The total issuance of debt related to debt resolution has reached approximately 3.7 trillion yuan as of December 8, 2025, to ensure steady progress in debt resolution and overdue payment clearance[12] - The policy framework aims to unify the effectiveness and strength of measures, focusing on "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" in economic governance[8]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and the price of aluminum ingots is expected to operate at a high level in the short term [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival (from mid - January to around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month), affecting 741,000 tons of construction steel production [2] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel plants has stopped production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, with daily output affected by about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished product price continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low recently, with a downward - moving price center due to weak supply - demand and pessimistic market sentiment, and the winter storage is sluggish this year [3] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at a high level. In November, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than 3% in September, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January has slightly increased [2] - The new production capacity of domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum is steadily released, and the weekly output has increased. The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.5% [3] - The primary aluminum alloy industry's operating rate remained at 60%, the same as last week; the aluminum plate and strip operating rate was stable at 65.0% but under pressure; the aluminum cable operating rate decreased by 0.4% to 62%; the aluminum profile operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 51.6% [3] - On December 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 596,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last Thursday and 1,000 tons from last Monday [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's economic growth potential during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is estimated to be between 4.5% and 5%, with the possibility of exceeding this range [1] - Factors contributing to growth include capital and labor inputs, which are expected to support over 3% growth, while total factor productivity is projected to contribute around 2% [1] - To achieve this growth potential, effective management of the transition from real growth to nominal growth is crucial, with a recommendation for more proactive macroeconomic policies and maintaining inflation around 2% [1] Group 2 - The expected nominal growth rate, if real growth reaches 5% with a 2% inflation rate, would be 7%, leading to an anticipated increase in China's economic total by 30 trillion to 40 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - By 2035, the goal is to double the economic total from approximately 100 trillion yuan in 2020 to 200 trillion yuan, with per capita GDP projected to exceed $20,000 [1] - Regarding income levels, China's GNI for 2024 is projected at $13,660, just $275 short of the World Bank's high-income threshold, indicating a potential transition to high-income status by 2025 or 2026 [2]

Group 1 - Multiple international institutions have raised their growth forecasts for China's economy, with the IMF increasing its 2025 growth prediction by 0.2 percentage points to 5% and the World Bank raising it by 0.4 percentage points [1] - Major investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have also adopted a positive outlook, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its 2025 growth forecast from 4.9% to 5.0% [1] - This upward revision occurs amidst a globally unstable economic environment, where the IMF projects a global growth rate of only 3.2% for 2025 [1] Group 2 - Resilience is a key theme highlighted by various institutions regarding China's economy, with the IMF noting significant resilience despite multiple shocks [2] - The World Bank states that China's economic performance has exceeded initial expectations for the year, particularly in exports [2] Group 3 - The resilience of China's economy is attributed to strong macroeconomic policies and the coordinated efforts of the "three drivers" of growth [3] - The Chinese government has prioritized expanding domestic demand, with policies like the trade-in program for consumer goods contributing to a recovery in consumer spending [3] - In the first three quarters, China's retail sales grew by 4.5% year-on-year, with final consumption contributing 53.5% to economic growth, an increase of 9 percentage points from the previous year [3] Group 4 - China's foreign trade remains robust, with a 4.0% year-on-year increase in total goods imports and exports in the first three quarters, and a 6.2% increase in trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries [3] - The World Bank emphasizes that the diversification of export markets is a crucial support for China's trade resilience [3] Group 5 - China's export competitiveness is no longer primarily reliant on price, as the country has established a strong presence in advanced industries such as electric vehicles and solar panels, allowing it to withstand moderate currency appreciation [4] - The Central Economic Work Conference has outlined a more proactive macroeconomic policy approach, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and a strong domestic market for 2026 [4] Group 6 - The IMF's managing director expressed confidence in China's potential for stronger economic growth, projecting that China's contribution to global economic growth could remain around 30% in the coming years [6] - China's economic growth is seen as a stabilizing force for the global economy, benefiting not only its own development but also the broader world economy [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The product is in a low - level operation, with the fundamentals remaining weakly stable and moving in a low - level consolidation [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Key Data - In November 2025, the national production of crude steel was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%, with a daily output of 2.329 million tons/day and a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; the production of pig iron was 62.34 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%, with a daily output of 2.078 million tons/day and a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%; the production of steel was 115.91 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%, with a daily output of 3.8637 million tons/day and a month - on - month increase of 1.0% [2] - From January to November 2025, the national cumulative production of crude steel was 892 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%, with a cumulative daily output of 266,970 tons; the production of pig iron was 774 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%, with a cumulative daily output of 231,750 tons; the production of steel was 1.333 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%, with a cumulative daily output of 399,030 tons [2] Group 4: Market Situation and Impact - Recently, the environmental protection production restrictions in Beijing, Hebei, and Tianjin in late December have attracted market attention. In Tianjin, most local steel strand factories have received environmental protection production restriction notices, with a 50% production restriction. However, due to recent demand issues, the steel strand manufacturers' production capacity utilization is about 60%, so this production restriction has little impact on them [2] - The product continued the previous day's narrow - range consolidation yesterday, with little change in fundamentals. Weak demand restricts the rebound of steel prices, and the support at the bottom of rebar at 3000 still exists. The domestic meeting last week had no overly unexpected policies, and there is a lack of drivers at the macro level. Currently, rebar has support at the 3000 mark, and attention should also be paid to the support strength of the raw material end [2] Group 5: Later Concerns - Macro policies and downstream demand conditions [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - For building materials, the price is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with the price center moving downward and the market sentiment remaining pessimistic due to the weak supply - demand situation and lackluster winter storage [2][4]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to remain high in the short term, with price fluctuations affected by macro - sentiment and ore - related news [2][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Building Materials - **Production Disruptions**: Yunnan and Guizhou short - process steel enterprises will have a total production reduction of 741,000 tons during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills will stop production, with a daily production reduction of about 16,200 tons [4]. - **Real Estate Transaction Data**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is in a weak supply - demand situation, with the price center moving downward. The winter storage is lackluster, and the price is expected to move in a range - bound manner. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. Aluminum Ingots - **Supply Situation**: The current domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 44.39 million tons, with a small increase in operating capacity due to high profits, but no significant increase in supply [4]. - **Demand Situation**: The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 61.8%. Different sectors have different performance, with the aluminum profile operating rate rebounding slightly, while the aluminum plate and strip and recycled aluminum sectors are under pressure [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of December 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas was 596,000 tons, with a slight increase. Due to delayed shipments from Xinjiang and consumption resilience, the inventory has not entered a continuous accumulation phase [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The price is expected to remain high in the short term, with high prices suppressing consumption. Attention should be paid to macro - guidance, macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crises, ore - mine resumption, and consumption release [5][6].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月18日 【原油】 夜盘油价继续反弹。EIA数据显示尽管上周原油库存下降，但汽油和馏分油超预期累库。特朗普不断 升级对马杜罗政府施压行为,宣布对进出委内瑞拉的受美国制裁油轮突施"全面彻底"封锁,但要 考虑使用受制裁船只来完成委内瑞拉原油出口的数量较为有限这一事实。美委局势可能带来阶段性 风险溢价,然全球原油供需愈发宽松背景下,和谈取得进展导致市场担忧达成协议后俄油供应释放 进一步增大供应压力。短期市场多空消息面博弈,油价波动加剧。 (责金属) 本周美国非农等数据验证经济降温轨迹。美联储理事沃勒称货币政策处于限制性区间,仍有降息空 间。黄金偏强运行逼近历史高点，如果实现突破则贵金属强势表现有望延续。 【铜】 隔夜沪铜增仓震荡,测试短期均线支撑强度。私鲁延长一年现有非法采矿政策。铜市整体持仓高, 昨日上海贴水150元，广东升水75元。2026年供应环境前紧后松，跨年多配冲高潜力仍在。 隔夜沪铝再次站上22000元。迈期铝社库窄幅波动,表观消费尚可,沪铝中期震荡偏强趋势未改, 短期多头背靠40日线位置持有,跌破则考虑离场观望。 【铸造 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference indicates that China's economy is expected to grow around 5% in 2025, with a total economic volume reaching approximately 140 trillion yuan, despite facing challenges in the coming year [1][11]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policies - China will continue to implement more proactive fiscal and monetary policies in 2026, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and debt levels while optimizing fiscal expenditure structures [2][12]. - The total government bond issuance for 2025 is projected to be 11.86 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate of around 4%, which is expected to remain stable in 2026 [2][13]. - Monetary policy will focus on maintaining liquidity and supporting economic growth, with tools including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments [3][14]. Group 2: Income and Employment - A plan to increase urban and rural residents' income is expected to be implemented in 2026, aiming to enhance the quality of employment and raise the basic pension for residents [5][15]. - The goal is to synchronize income growth with economic growth, ensuring that labor remuneration increases alongside productivity [6][16]. - Employment policies will prioritize stability, focusing on key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers, while promoting training in high-demand industries [7][17]. Group 3: Consumption and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is a top priority for 2026, with a focus on balancing goods and service consumption, particularly in sectors like tourism and elderly care [8][18]. - Investment is expected to stabilize, with an emphasis on infrastructure projects that enhance consumer services and improve living standards [9][20]. - The government aims to stimulate private investment, particularly in high-tech and service sectors, to boost overall economic activity [10][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious optimism regarding the Chinese stock market, expecting a high single-digit growth in the index for the year 2026 [3][12]. Core Insights - The nominal GDP growth expectation for China is around 4%, slightly below market consensus, with a focus on moderate fiscal policies emphasizing infrastructure investment [1][2]. - The report highlights China's first-mover advantage in emerging industries such as technology, batteries, electric vehicles, robotics, and photovoltaics, projecting an increase in global export market share from 15% to 16%-17% [1][5]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to implement two additional rate cuts in early 2026, contributing to a relatively loose liquidity environment that favors risk assets [1][9]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policy - The overall macroeconomic policy for China in 2026 is characterized as moderately supportive rather than aggressively stimulative, aiming to stabilize current growth levels and alleviate deflationary pressures [2][3]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to be moderate but may be front-loaded in the first half of the year, focusing on infrastructure investments such as urban renewal and AI computing centers [3][15]. - Monetary policy will emphasize structural tools with limited room for interest rate cuts, projected to be between 10-20 basis points for the year [3][15]. Real Estate and Consumption Policies - Specific measures in the real estate sector include potential mortgage rate subsidies expected to be detailed after the 2025 Two Sessions, aimed at stabilizing market expectations [4][17]. - Consumption policies will continue to support trade-in programs and explore service sector consumption subsidies, with implementation anticipated in the second half of 2026 [4][17]. Industry Competition and Export Outlook - The competitive landscape for China's industries remains strong, particularly in high-growth sectors like electric vehicles and robotics, with an expected increase in export market share [5][20]. - Despite global trade protectionism, China's export market share is projected to rise, supported by a large pool of engineering graduates and a strong manufacturing base [5][20]. Economic Challenges and Future Vision - Current economic conditions show a slight recovery in market confidence, but challenges remain in addressing consumer spending and social welfare issues [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the need for gradual policy adjustments and feedback collection from market participants to ensure effective implementation of proposed economic measures [7][25].