Group 1 - The Chinese economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, driven by more proactive macro policies, including aggressive fiscal measures and moderately loose monetary policies [1][5] - The implementation of policies has shown strong characteristics, such as targeted approaches, early execution, and enhanced collaboration between different levels of government [1][7] - The resilience of the Chinese economy is attributed to the active role of various enterprises, which have adapted to external challenges and focused on innovation [2][3] Group 2 - Consumer spending has shown signs of recovery, particularly in service consumption and upgraded consumption categories, although challenges in addressing insufficient domestic demand remain [5][7] - Major reforms have been initiated following the 20th National Congress, with 369 significant reform tasks outlined, aimed at enhancing economic circulation and promoting the vitality of business entities [5][7] - The current economic environment presents both challenges and opportunities, with a focus on long-term development and the establishment of a unified national market [5][7]

国家统计局发布的数据显示，今年上半年，我国国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长5.3%，比去年同期和 全年均提升0.3个百分点。受访专家认为，中国经济在应对风险挑战中展现出强劲韧性，为实现全年目 标打下了较好基础。当前外部不稳定不确定因素较多，国内有效需求不足，经济回升向好基础仍需加力 巩固。 经济增长含金量高 5.3%的增长，含金量高在哪儿？ 发展韧性更强—— 中国国际经济交流中心副理事长王一鸣表示，当前外部环境继续发生深刻变化，地缘政治动荡加剧，全 球经济增长动力减弱。我国经济处在新旧动能转换期，传统产业增势减弱，房地产市场深度调整，新兴 产业仍在成长。上半年经济实现5.3%的增长，表明中国经济韧性持续增强，也为实现全年经济增长目 标奠定了较好基础。 运行稳定性增强—— "上半年经济运行稳定性远超预期，实体经济和金融市场'双稳'态势明显。"国家发展改革委宏观经济研 究院副院长郭春丽认为，经济运行"稳"的态势不仅表现在GDP同比增长5.3%、比去年同期和全年均提升 0.3个百分点，就业、物价、工业、服务业、消费、投资、出口等主要指标总体保持稳定，还表现在经 济运行季度间波动明显减少。一、二季度GDP同比增长分别为 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil): Bullish [1][3][4][5] - Iron ore: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [1][8][9] - Coke: Bullish [1][10][12][13] - Coking coal: Bullish [1][14][16][17] - Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon): Range-bound [1][18][20][21] Core Views of the Report - The steel market continues to be driven by production cut news and significant increases in raw material prices, with rebar showing seasonal weakness in production and demand but still expected to run strongly due to increased hot metal production and positive market sentiment; hot-rolled coil has relatively stable fundamentals and may maintain a strong trend in the short term due to macro policies and raw material price increases [1][4][5] - The iron ore market has seen a significant increase in hot metal production, with both supply and arrivals increasing, and subsequent shipments expected to rise. However, the rapid recent price increase has compressed profit margins, so it is not advisable to chase the rise, and short-term observation is recommended while considering short positions in the medium term [1][8][9] - The coke market has seen the first round of spot price increases implemented, with expectations of further increases. Market sentiment is affected by production cut news, and steel mill restocking has made the market more positive, so it may maintain a strong trend [1][12][13] - The coking coal market has seen a recent increase in domestic production, approaching last year's levels. Some mines have resumed production in July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory has decreased, spot trading has improved, and downstream restocking has boosted the market, so it may continue to run strongly in the short term [1][16][17] - The ferroalloy market has limited supply-demand contradictions. The ferromanganese market has increasing supply and decreasing demand, with cost support from manganese ore but potential cost weakening. The ferrosilicon market has both supply and demand decreasing, with lower production area electricity prices and high factory inventories, so it is expected to trade within a range [1][20][21] Summary by Variety Steel Rebar - **Market situation**: There are still occasional production cut news, and significant increases in raw material prices drive the steel price up. Production and apparent demand have decreased month-on-month, total inventory has increased slightly, showing obvious seasonal weakness. Hot metal production has increased significantly, driving up the expected demand for furnace materials [1][4][5] - **Price range**: [3150, 3190] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: May continue to run strongly [1][5] Hot-rolled Coil - **Market situation**: Production, apparent demand, and inventory changes are small, with relatively stable fundamentals and limited contradictions. The market is trading around macro policies, anti-involution, and industry production cut policies, and raw material price increases have also pushed up the steel price [1][4][5] - **Price range**: [3320, 3360] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: May maintain a strong trend in the short term [1][5] Iron Ore - **Market situation**: Hot metal production has increased significantly, with both supply and arrivals increasing, and subsequent shipments expected to rise. Ports and steel mills have both seen inventory accumulation. Steel mills have good profits and high production enthusiasm, and locking in profits on the futures market has driven up the iron ore price. However, the rapid recent price increase has compressed profit margins [1][8] - **Price range**: [785, 815] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: Short-term observation, consider short positions in the medium term [1][9] Coke - **Market situation**: The first round of spot price increases has been implemented, and there are expectations of further increases. There is a lot of production cut news in the market, which affects market sentiment. Steel mill restocking after the rapid price increase has made the market more positive [1][12] - **Price range**: [1520, 1550] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: May maintain a strong trend [1][13] Coking Coal - **Market situation**: Domestic production has recently increased, approaching last year's levels. Some mines have resumed production in July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory has decreased month-on-month, spot trading has improved, and market sentiment has generally improved. Downstream restocking has boosted the market [1][16] - **Price range**: [920, 950] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: May continue to run strongly in the short term [1][17] Ferroalloys Ferromanganese - **Market situation**: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and inventory pressure has not been significantly relieved. Manganese ore currently supports the price, but there are expectations of cost weakening due to lower electricity costs in multiple production areas and slightly lower long-term quotes from some mines. Hot metal production is at a high level, providing rigid support for ferromanganese demand [1][20] - **Price range**: [5700, 5890] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: Short-term trading is mainly sentiment-driven, and attention should be paid to the 6000 yuan/ton integer mark [1][21] Ferrosilicon - **Market situation**: Both supply and demand are decreasing. Production area electricity prices have decreased, further lowering the cost line. Factory inventories are still relatively high, some factories plan to resume production, and the downstream consumption off-season has arrived, increasing the difficulty of factory de-stocking [1][20] - **Price range**: [5390, 5575] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: Short-term trading is mainly sentiment-driven, and the market is expected to trade within a range [1][21]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the finished product, short - term observation is recommended, and try shorting at high prices after a rise [2] - For raw materials, the view is to take a short - term wait - and - see approach or try shorting on rebounds [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Product - In early July, the average daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 2.097 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous period; the steel inventory was 15.07 million tons, a 2.4% decrease from the previous ten - day period and a 4.6% decrease from the same ten - day period last month [2] - This week, the average含税 cost of steel billets from mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2,775 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/ton. Compared with the current ex - factory price of common square billets of 2,950 yuan/ton on July 16, the average profit of steel mills was 175 yuan/ton [2] - The finished product continued to adjust and consolidate yesterday. After continuous rebounds, steel prices slowed down in the past two trading days. The latest real - estate data was weak, and demand restrained prices. There are still important domestic meetings recently, and the rebound driven by sentiment is not over [2] Raw Materials - The view is to take a short - term wait - and - see approach or try shorting on rebounds [2]

Group 1 - The iron ore spot transaction volume reached 1 million tons, with prices for PB powder at 751 yuan/ton and super special powder at 634 yuan/ton, indicating a price spread of 117 yuan/ton between high and low-grade products [1] - The futures market saw the main iron ore contract closing at 785.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.81%, and trading volume reaching 463,317 lots [1] - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 78,000 tons to 29.871 million tons, marking a phase of decline after the seasonal peak in shipments [2] Group 2 - The demand for black metals in the first half of the year was primarily driven by exports, while macroeconomic policies have positively impacted steel demand expectations, particularly in manufacturing, real estate, and infrastructure [3] - The profit levels of steel mills remain healthy, suggesting that iron ore prices may continue to experience strong fluctuations in the short term [3] - Rio Tinto's iron ore shipment target for the Pilbara region remains unchanged at 323-338 million tons for 2025 [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly, with Brent in the range of 68 - 70 USD/barrel. Medium - term outlook is bearish due to expected oversupply after the 4th quarter [2]. - Asphalt: The unilateral price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the cracking spread is expected to be strong. The BU main contract is expected to trade between 3500 - 3650 [5]. - LPG: The PG price is expected to be weak due to sufficient supply and low downstream purchasing enthusiasm [9]. - Natural gas: US natural gas prices are expected to rise, while European natural gas prices are expected to oscillate [9][10]. - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has some demand support, but the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - PX: Expected to follow the cost side and oscillate in the short term [13]. - PTA: Expected to oscillate and consolidate, with attention to device changes [14]. - Ethylene glycol: Supply is gradually returning, putting pressure on prices, and expected to oscillate and consolidate [17]. - Short - fiber: Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported, and it is expected to oscillate and consolidate [19]. - PET bottle chips: Expected to follow the raw material side and oscillate and consolidate [23]. - Styrene: Expected to oscillate in the short term due to supply and demand changes [27]. - PVC: In the second half of the year, it is in a pattern of oversupply, and prices are expected to be bearish in the medium and short term [30]. - Caustic soda: Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly [30]. - Plastic and PP: Fundamental is weak, and prices are expected to be bearish in the medium and short term [32]. - Glass: Short - term focus on production and sales, medium - term focus on cost reduction and plant cold - repair [35]. - Soda ash: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with attention to policy trends [38]. - Methanol: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with attention to the evolution of the Middle East situation [39]. - Urea: Expected to be weak in the short term, with attention to export policies [43]. - Corrugated paper: Overall in a weak pattern, with some price increases expected [44]. - Offset paper: In a situation of weak supply and demand, prices are expected to be stable [45]. - Logs: It is recommended to wait and see for the near - month contract, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [48]. - Natural rubber and 20 - number rubber: Wait and see for the RU and NR main contracts; hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread [52]. - Butadiene rubber: Try shorting the BR main contract opportunistically [55]. - Pulp: Try shorting a small amount of the SP main contract [57]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2508 closed at 66.38 USD/barrel, down 0.14 USD/barrel (- 0.21%); Brent2509 closed at 68.52 USD/barrel, down 0.19 USD/barrel (- 0.28%); SC main contract 2509 closed at 507 CNY/barrel [1]. - Related News: Trump's attitude towards Powell affected the market; the Fed's economic report indicated cost pressure; EIA data showed changes in US oil inventories and production [1]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - narrow - range oscillation; arbitrage - gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; options - wait and see [2]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2509 closed at 3612 points (- 0.14%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3433 points (- 0.17%) at night [3]. - Related News: Prices in different regions showed different trends, affected by factors such as demand and supply [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; arbitrage - asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; options - wait and see [6]. LPG - Market Review: PG2508 closed at 4072 (- 0.88%) at night; PG2509 closed at 3988 (- 0.77%) at night [6]. - Related News: Prices in different regions had different trends [6][7]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - weak operation [9]. Natural Gas - Market Review: TTF closed at 34.809 (+ 1.06%), HH closed at 3.551 (+ 0.79%), JKM closed at 12.475 (+ 1.42%) [9]. - Related News: US natural gas inventory increased, supply and demand changed [9]. - Trading Strategy: HH unilateral - buy on dips; TTF unilateral - oscillate [10]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU09 closed at 2855 (- 0.56%) at night; LU09 closed at 3568 (- 2.22%) at night [10]. - Related News: Changes in fuel oil inventories and trading volume [11]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see; arbitrage - wait and see [12]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6716 (+ 28/+ 0.42%), and 6684 (- 32/- 0.48%) at night [12]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [13]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [13]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4706 (+ 10/+ 0.21%), and 4696 (- 10/- 0.21%) at night [13]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [14]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [16]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 main contract closed at 4351 (+ 29+0.67%), and 4349 (- 2/- 0.05%) at night [16]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales, equipment shutdown [16]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [18]. Short - fiber - Market Review: PF2508 main contract closed at 6356 (- 12/- 0.19%) during the day, and 6338 (- 18/- 0.28%) at night [19]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [19]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [21]. PET Bottle Chips - Market Review: PR2509 main contract closed at 5886 (+ 16/+ 0.27%), and 5876 (- 10/- 0.17%) at night [20]. - Related News: Stable factory quotes, average market transactions [23]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [24]. Styrene - Market Review: BZ2503 main contract closed at 6166 (+ 22/+ 0.36%) during the day, and 6151 (- 15/- 0.24%) at night; EB2508 main contract closed at 7343 (+ 3/+ 0.04%) during the day, and 7304 (- 39/- 0.53%) at night [24]. - Related News: Changes in port inventories, equipment shutdown [24]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: PVC prices declined, and caustic soda prices were stable [27][30]. - Related News: Changes in PVC and caustic soda inventories, new device production expectations [30]. - Trading Strategy: PVC - bearish in the medium and short term; caustic soda - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [31]. Plastic and PP - Market Review: LLDPE prices declined in some regions, and PP prices had slight changes [32]. - Related News: Changes in maintenance ratios [32]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - bearish in the medium and short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [33]. Glass - Market Review: Glass futures 09 contract closed at 1070 CNY/ton (- 1/- 0.09%), and 1078 CNY/ton (+ 8/+ 0.75%) at night [34]. - Related News: Market conditions in different regions, changes in deep - processing orders [34]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - pay attention to logical conversion; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [36]. Soda Ash - Market Review: Soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1208 CNY/ton (- 6/- 0.5%), and 1215 CNY/ton (+ 7/+ 0.6%) at night [37]. - Related News: Equipment operation, price trends [38]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - prices are expected to be strong, pay attention to policy trends; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [38]. Methanol - Market Review: Methanol futures closed at 2362 (- 14/- 0.59%) at night [39]. - Related News: Changes in production enterprise signing volume [39]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [40]. Urea - Market Review: Urea futures oscillated and closed at 1733 (+ 2/+ 0.12%) [40]. - Related News: Changes in production and inventory, new Indian tender prices [43]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - sell call options on rebounds [44]. Corrugated Paper - Related News: Market prices were stable with some increases, cost and demand situations [44]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Offset Paper - Related News: Market prices were stable, supply and demand situations [45]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Logs - Related News: Price changes, project funds, and market conditions [47]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see for the near - month contract; arbitrage - pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; options - wait and see [49]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - Market Review: RU main 09 contract closed at 14525 (+ 25/+ 0.17%); NR main 09 contract closed at 12485 (- 5/- 0.04%) [49]. - Related News: Changes in export and consumption data [51]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see for RU and NR main contracts; arbitrage - hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread; options - wait and see [52]. Butadiene Rubber - Market Review: BR main 09 contract closed at 11405 (- 45/- 0.39%) [53]. - Related News: Changes in production and shipping index [55]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - try shorting the BR main contract opportunistically; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [55]. Pulp - Market Review: SP main 09 contract closed at 5242, unchanged from the previous day [55]. - Related News: New product launch by Starbucks [56]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - try shorting a small amount of the SP main contract; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [57].

永赢欣益纯债一年定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金 2025 年第 2 季度报告 永赢欣益纯债一年定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金 基金管理人：永 赢 基 金管理有限公司 基金托管人：兴业银行股份有限公司 报告送出日期：2025 年 07 月 17 日 永赢欣益纯债一年定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金 2025 年第 2 季 度报告 §1 重要提示 基金管理人的董事会及董事保证本报告所载资料不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并对其内 容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 基金托管人兴业银行股份有限公司根据本基金合同规定，于 2025 年 07 月 15 日复核了本报告中的 财 务指标、净值表现和投资组合报告等内容，保证复核内容不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证基金一定盈利。 基金的过往业绩并不代表其未来表现。投资有风险，投资者在作出投资决策前应仔细阅读本基金的招 募说明书。 本报告中财务资料未经审计。 本报告期自 2025 年 04 月 01 日起至 2025 年 06 月 30 日止。 | §2 | 基金产品概况 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range with a downward trend and weak operation [1] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to move in a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel production [2] - In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown plans, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased 40.3% month - on - month and increased 43.2% year - on - year [3] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, with prices hitting new lows. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish [3] Aluminum - In the US, consumer price inflation in June reached a five - month high, which may lead the Fed to wait and see before September [2] - As of last Thursday, the national alumina operating rate decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92%, with some enterprises in Shandong and Guangxi under maintenance [3] - Guinea requires 50% of bauxite exports to be transported by its own ships, and its bauxite exports have increased 37% in 2025 [3] - As of the end of June, alumina enterprise inventories increased by 81,000 tons [3] - Last week, the aluminum processing industry's operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% [3] - On July 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas increased by 35,000 tons compared with last Thursday [3] - Since the end of June, the reduction of aluminum rod production has led to an expected decrease in the proportion of molten aluminum in July, and the supply of aluminum ingots has increased significantly [3] - The decline in aluminum prices on Monday was due to the short - term impact of concentrated arrivals over the weekend [3]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The domestic CPI has remained around 0 since April 2023, with June CPI showing a year-on-year increase of 0.1% after four consecutive months of decline [1] - The June PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, marking the 33rd consecutive month in negative territory, with production materials and living materials both showing significant declines [2][3] - The decline in prices is attributed to factors such as the deep adjustment in the real estate market, pessimistic income expectations, and overcapacity in emerging industries like new energy and photovoltaics [3] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - To address the low price environment, it is essential to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies, including effective fiscal and monetary measures [3] - The report suggests expanding government-led investment demand, focusing on new infrastructure and urban renewal, and utilizing special government bonds to stimulate the economy [3][5] - There is a need to enhance consumer demand by increasing residents' income, particularly for low- and middle-income groups, and stabilizing property and stock market incomes [5] Group 3: Market Outlook - The report indicates that the upcoming policy window in July is expected to bring more favorable policies, which may boost market risk appetite [6][7] - The market is currently lacking a clear mainline, but sectors such as technology growth (semiconductors, AI, consumer electronics) and new consumption industries are highlighted as having upward potential [8] - The focus on long-term investments from insurance funds is expected to increase, as new policies are set to encourage stable and value-oriented investments [7]

Economic Growth - The GDP for the first half of 2025 reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1] - The growth rate of 5.3% was both expected and surprising, as many international institutions predicted lower than 5% [3] Consumption Contribution - Consumption contributed 52% to economic growth, while investment contributed 16.8% and foreign trade contributed 31.2% [4] - The increase in consumption is attributed to the implementation of consumption policies and specific action plans [4][6] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by 2.8% in the first half of the year, with a noted decline in real estate investment impacting overall growth [7][9] - The slowdown in investment growth is a result of structural adjustments, particularly in the real estate sector [10] Real Estate Market - The real estate sector remains in a downtrend, necessitating efforts to stabilize both investment and sales [11] - Short-term measures focus on risk prevention, particularly regarding liquidity issues for real estate developers [13] Macroeconomic Policy - There is a call for increased support from central fiscal policies for investment, consumption, and foreign trade in the second half of the year [14] - Attention is needed on price parameters like GDP deflator, CPI, and PPI, with adjustments to macro policies based on these trends [16]