1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to repeated digestion of domestic policy benefits and unimproved corporate profits, the stock index may face callback risks; after the Fed's September rate cut, the expectation of three rate cuts this year has been digested, and gold may enter a phase - based adjustment after a rapid rise. In the medium - to long - term, the stock index's valuation is dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth, and it will maintain a wide - range oscillation; gold may face a deep adjustment due to the fading of uncertainties and fully digested rate - cut expectations [39] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - From January to August this year, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline, industrial production decreased but remained at a high level, and the consumption growth rate slowed down marginally, indicating a weak foundation for China's economic recovery, with prominent characteristics of strong production but weak demand and strong service industry but weak manufacturing [4][39] 3.2 Stock Index Fundamental Data - The year - on - year growth rate of M1 continued to rise, and the gap with M2 further narrowed, reflecting increased fiscal spending and a transfer of government deposits to enterprises and residents. The A - share market was active with abundant liquidity [15] - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets approached 2.4 trillion yuan, hitting a new high. The central bank conducted 1.8268 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net injection of 562.3 billion yuan [18] 3.3 Gold Fundamental Data - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index in the US dropped from 58.2 to 55.4 in September, hitting a new low since June. The one - year inflation expectation was 4.8%, down 0.1 percentage point from last month, indicating negative impacts of US tariff policies, a slowdown in labor demand, and suppressed consumer confidence and spending [26] - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures continued to soar, reflecting increased demand for physical gold delivery and high market bullish sentiment [37] 3.4 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Be cautious of the callback risk of the stock index; gold may enter a phase - based adjustment. Medium - to long - term: The stock index will maintain a wide - range oscillation; gold may face a deep adjustment [39]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced significant trading activity on September 18, with total market turnover exceeding 3 trillion yuan, reaching 3.17 trillion yuan, marking the fourth highest in history [1] - Year-to-date total trading volume has reached 283.59 trillion yuan, surpassing the entire trading volume for 2024, setting a new annual record ahead of schedule [1] Liquidity and Market Sentiment - Analysts believe that the current liquidity support narrative has not been broken, and the logic behind the rise of the Chinese stock market is sustainable [1] - Positive factors are emerging, such as the potential reopening of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and a recovery in public fund issuance, suggesting a continued upward trend in the market [1] Brokerage Sector Performance - The brokerage sector, represented by the 300 billion yuan top brokerage ETF (512000), saw a price drop of 2.97% despite a net inflow of 12.62 billion yuan in a single day, continuing a trend of increased positions [1] - The brokerage ETF has recorded a total net inflow of 64.53 billion yuan over the past 16 trading days [1] Investment Insights - Western Securities indicates that resident savings are entering the market, and the brokerage sector is expected to perform well in the future, particularly focusing on undervalued and high ROE leading brokerages [3] - Huatai Securities highlights that brokerage investment and brokerage services benefit from high market growth, with a positive outlook for multi-business line growth [3] - According to China Merchants Securities, the brokerage sector's price-to-book ratio is at 1.58, within the 43.84% percentile over the past decade, suggesting that brokerages deserve more attention and allocation in a bull market [3] ETF Characteristics - The brokerage ETF (512000) passively tracks the CSI All Share Securities Companies Index, encompassing 49 listed brokerage stocks, with nearly 60% of its holdings concentrated in the top ten leading brokerages [4] - The ETF serves as an efficient investment tool, balancing investments in leading brokerages while also considering the high growth potential of smaller brokerages [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential resumption of interest rate cuts is expected to boost global risk appetite and significantly improve liquidity expectations in emerging markets, leading to favorable conditions for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 1: Market Impact - Analysts predict a dual benefit of risk appetite recovery and foreign capital inflow for A-shares and Hong Kong markets [1] - The current market liquidity is gradually easing, with expectations that the central bank will maintain ample market liquidity, which will positively influence stock and bond market performance [1] Group 2: Sector Opportunities - From a structural opportunity perspective, sectors such as technology growth, low valuation dividends, and certain recovering sectors are worth attention [1] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to show a "policy-driven + profit improvement" support leading to a fluctuating upward trend in the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in margin trading balances in the A-share market reflects increased market activity and investor sentiment, with the balance surpassing 2.4 trillion yuan, setting a new historical high [1][4]. Group 1: Margin Trading Balance - As of September 17, the total margin trading balance reached 24,054.44 billion yuan, an increase of 127.92 billion yuan from the previous trading day, marking a new record [2]. - The financing balance, which is a key driver of this growth, totaled 23,885.22 billion yuan, up by 127.11 billion yuan, while the securities lending balance was 169.22 billion yuan, increasing by 0.81 billion yuan [2]. - The margin trading balance has shown a fluctuating upward trend, rising from 1.64 trillion yuan in early 2021 to 1.86 trillion yuan by early 2025 [2]. Group 2: Investor Participation and Market Trends - The number of individual investors in the margin trading market reached 7.66 million as of September 17, with 549,700 active participants, indicating a significant increase in investor engagement [3]. - Financing funds have shown a clear preference for high-growth sectors, with industries such as power equipment, electronics, non-bank financials, and communication leading in net financing purchases [3]. Group 3: Securities Firms and Revenue - The sustained high level of margin trading balances has contributed to increased revenue for securities firms, with net interest income reaching 26.24 billion yuan in the first half of the year, accounting for 10.45% of total revenue [5]. - Securities firms are actively optimizing service processes and adjusting credit business limits to enhance their capacity to capture market opportunities, as seen with Huayin Securities raising its credit business limit to 8 billion yuan [5][6]. Group 4: Risk Management and Competitive Landscape - As the margin trading market enters a phase of fee competition, securities firms are focusing on improving service quality and professional capabilities to mitigate the impact of fee reductions [6]. - Leading securities firms leverage their advantages in capital, clients, and channels to dominate the margin trading business, while smaller firms are developing differentiated competitive strategies [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to boost risk appetite in the A-share and Hong Kong markets, leading to a recovery in foreign capital inflows and structural investment opportunities in sectors like technology and low-volatility dividends [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - On September 18, A-shares experienced a decline, with all three major indices falling over 1%, while the trading volume reached 3.17 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase since August 28 [1]. - Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve's rate cut will improve liquidity expectations in emerging markets, benefiting both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1][2]. Group 2: Liquidity Environment - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024 [1]. - The rate cut is expected to enhance global liquidity, increasing investor willingness to allocate to equity assets, particularly in emerging markets [1][2]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Analysts highlight that A-shares may experience a structural market driven by low-volatility dividends and technology growth, with potential for a simultaneous rise in both stock and bond markets [3][4]. - The current market sentiment is improving, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showing unique advantages that may attract international capital [2][4]. Group 4: Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include technology growth, low-volatility dividends, and industries benefiting from policy support, such as renewable energy and electric vehicles [5]. - The technology sector, particularly in areas like robotics and energy storage, is expected to present significant investment opportunities [5].

Core Insights - The U.S. financial system is experiencing a significant liquidity contraction, influenced by Treasury auction settlements and corporate quarterly tax payments [1] - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) has risen to 4.51% as of September 15, marking a notable increase from 4.42% the previous trading day, and the largest single-day rise since December 31 [1] - The spread between SOFR and the effective federal funds rate has widened to 18 basis points, the highest level since December 26, as market expectations suggest a potential 25 basis point cut by policymakers [1] Group 1 - The increase in SOFR is attributed to a combination of the U.S. Treasury rebuilding cash reserves and the Federal Reserve's ongoing balance sheet reduction [1] - The usage of a Federal Reserve overnight lending tool, often seen as an indicator of excess liquidity in the financing market, has dropped to a four-year low [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report presents the market liquidity overview of various sectors on September 15, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - On September 15, 2025, the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of different sectors are presented, and their changes compared to the previous trading day are analyzed [1][2]. II. Stock Index Plate - The trading volume was 713.276 billion yuan, a change of - 17.13% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1312.518 billion yuan, a change of - 5.02%; the trading - holding ratio was 53.98% [1]. III. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume was 366.174 billion yuan, a change of - 20.19% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 734.723 billion yuan, a change of + 1.52%; the trading - holding ratio was 50.86% [1]. IV. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - The basic metals trading volume was 321.031 billion yuan, a change of - 10.46% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 526.57 billion yuan, a change of + 0.53%; the trading - holding ratio was 76.86%. The precious metals trading volume was 335.04 billion yuan, a change of - 29.88% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 504.483 billion yuan, a change of - 0.01%; the trading - holding ratio was 80.65% [1]. V. Energy and Chemical Plate - The trading volume was 420.384 billion yuan, a change of + 7.90% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 438.009 billion yuan, a change of - 1.91%; the trading - holding ratio was 80.02% [1]. VI. Agricultural Products Plate - The trading volume was 345.756 billion yuan, a change of + 24.29% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 549.893 billion yuan, a change of - 0.60%; the trading - holding ratio was 65.12% [1]. VII. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume was 308.728 billion yuan, a change of + 9.00% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 381.236 billion yuan, a change of + 2.23%; the trading - holding ratio was 77.19% [2].

Market Liquidity Overview - R007 increased from 1.4566% to 1.4651%, a rise of 0.85 basis points, while DR007 rose from 1.4372% to 1.4575%, an increase of 2.03 basis points. The spread between R007 and DR007 narrowed by 1.18 basis points [1][9] - The net inflow of funds this week was 2.997 billion, a decrease of 64.904 billion from the previous week. Fund supply was 110.177 billion, and fund demand was 107.180 billion. Fund supply increased by 15.540 billion, with net financing purchases rising by 37.822 billion [1][13] Industry Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most sectors in the CITIC first-level industry index rose this week, with the real estate sector showing the most significant increase at 6.99%. Other sectors like electronics and agriculture also saw slight gains. Conversely, the banking and comprehensive finance sectors led the declines, falling by 0.64% and 0.58%, respectively [2][18] - The electronic industry received the highest net inflow of leveraged funds, totaling 16.839 billion, while the transportation sector experienced a net outflow of 1.031 billion, marking the most significant reduction [21][22] Style Sector Liquidity Tracking - Growth and cyclical styles led the performance this week, with increases of 3.56% and 1.87%, respectively. The growth style accounted for 58.61% of the average daily trading volume, indicating it was the most active sector [3][19] - The average turnover rate for the growth style was the highest at 3.45%, while financial and stable styles had relatively low turnover rates [3][19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report presents the market liquidity situation on September 12, 2025, including the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors such as stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity The report shows the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of different sectors, as well as their changes compared to the previous trading day, and provides multiple figures for data visualization, including trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each sector [1][2][4] II. Stock Index Plate On September 12, 2025, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 860.732 billion yuan, a - 15.38% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1381.936 billion yuan, a - 1.89% change; the trading - holding ratio was 61.92%. Multiple figures related to the stock index plate are provided, such as the rise - fall ratio, trading - holding ratio, and precipitation fund changes of each variety [1][5] III. Treasury Bond Plate The trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 458.795 billion yuan, a - 20.23% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 723.756 billion yuan, a - 1.75% change; the trading - holding ratio was 64.11%. Figures about the rise - fall ratio, trading - holding ratio, and precipitation fund changes of each variety in the treasury bond plate are presented [1][5] IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) The trading volume of the basic metal plate was 358.521 billion yuan, a + 27.67% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 523.786 billion yuan, a + 3.58% change; the trading - holding ratio was 74.07%. The trading volume of the precious metal plate was 477.791 billion yuan, a + 34.69% change; the holding amount was 504.509 billion yuan, a + 2.04% change; the trading - holding ratio was 131.45%. Figures regarding the rise - fall ratio, trading - holding ratio, and precipitation fund changes of each metal plate variety are given [1][5] V. Energy Chemical Plate The trading volume of the energy chemical plate was 389.622 billion yuan, a + 7.51% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 446.529 billion yuan, a + 0.44% change; the trading - holding ratio was 67.68%. Figures about the rise - fall ratio, trading - holding ratio, and precipitation fund changes of the main varieties in the energy chemical plate are provided [1][5] VI. Agricultural Product Plate The trading volume of the agricultural product plate was 278.189 billion yuan, a - 4.69% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 553.236 billion yuan, a + 0.02% change; the trading - holding ratio was 42.87%. Figures regarding the rise - fall ratio, trading - holding ratio, and precipitation fund changes of the main varieties in the agricultural product plate are given [1][5] VII. Black Building Materials Plate The trading volume of the black building materials plate was 283.248 billion yuan, a + 5.40% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 372.916 billion yuan, a - 1.70% change; the trading - holding ratio was 77.39%. Figures about the rise - fall ratio, trading - holding ratio, and precipitation fund changes of each variety in the black building materials plate are presented [2][6]

Macro Economic Insights - The macroeconomic news over the weekend is positive, indicating a favorable outlook for the market. August social financing data shows a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, with M0 increasing by 11.7%, M1 by 6%, and M2 by 8.8%, suggesting ample liquidity in the market [1] - The narrowing gap between M1 and M2 indicates that household deposits are continuously flowing into the market, which is beneficial for the stock market [1] - The Ministry of Finance has stated that there is ample room for fiscal policy to exert influence, alleviating concerns in the current market environment [1] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce interest rate cuts on September 17, with mainstream institutions predicting two cuts this year, each by 25 basis points. The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point cut, while a 50 basis point cut would significantly support global capital markets [1] Industry Developments - In the technology sector, the U.S. has taken a confrontational stance against China, which has responded with countermeasures. Additionally, the three major telecom operators in China have announced support for Apple's new products [1] - Positive news has emerged in the energy storage sector, indicating potential growth opportunities [1] - The recent controversy involving Luo Yonghao and Xibei has garnered attention, raising questions about its potential impact on the prepared food sector in the upcoming week [1] Market Trends - Attention should be paid to whether the market can increase trading volume in the coming week. If volume does not increase, the index is likely to remain in a large range below 3900 points. The previous week's market performance exhibited an "N" shape [1]