13日早盘，两市股指全线高开，随后涨幅有所回落。到发稿，沪指小幅走高，创业板指涨近1%。 职业方面，家居、物流、医药、石油、钢铁等板块走强，航运概念、跨境电商、算力概念等活泼；军 工、稳妥、电力等板块走低。 昨日大幅拉升的港股回落走低，到发稿，恒生指数、恒生科技指数均跌超1%。 昨日下午，中美日内瓦经贸谈判联合声明发布，两边许诺将于2025年5月14日前采取修改加征的从价关 税等系列行动。 中航资本表明，此次关税下调的起伏大超商场预期，将明显提振商场心情，比如科技和外需板块，前者 受前期商场风险下行的压制，后者则受偏高关税税率影响较大。短期商场或重回风险偏好的心情中，前 期跌落较多的科技和外需板块或迎来节奏性修复。 A股短期震动偏强的趋势或许进一步加强，根本面预期的改进或许导致A股打破上行。一是近期A股震 动偏强的中心驱动要素或许进一步加强：首要，方针和流动性宽松是A股"五一"节后走强的主要驱动要 素，此次超预期大幅下降加征关税不会对国内方针和流动性宽松产生影响，反而或许进一步加大美联储 降息和人民币升值的预期，对流动性宽松预期有利；其次，中美平缓带来的风险偏好改进是推进近期走 势偏强的另一个中心要素，本次超 ...

风险提示：国际贸易、地缘冲突超出预期；上市公司业绩增速回落超预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指在周线箱体中轨线找到支撑，正在展开超跌反弹。沪指于 4 月中旬逐步企 稳反弹，目前已经回补了 4 月 7日的向下跳空缺口，上方正面临着今年一季度高点和去年四季度的成交 密集区的压力，预计继续反弹的阻力将有所增大，建议保持震荡市思维。 首先，中美贸易谈判取得实质性进展，市场风险偏好有所提升。新华社 5 月 11 日晚报道"中美经贸 高层会谈坦诚、深入、具有建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋 商机制。中美双方将尽快敲定相关细节，并将于 5 月 12 日发布会谈达成的联合声明"。周一下午三点， 新华社发布了《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，中美两国同时大幅下调之前加征的关税。中美经贸谈 判的效率和互相减免关税的幅度总体超出投资者预期，市场风险偏好有所上升。当然，4 月中旬以来市 场始终在交易贸易冲突的缓和，要看到市场已经计入一定改善预期。不悲不喜，谨慎应对仍是基本原 则。 其次，沪指高开高收，成交放大。周一，两市高开后一路向上反弹，收盘接近全天最高点。两市量 能在 1.3 万亿 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Sino - US tariff reduction exceeded expectations, improving global risk appetite. The capital market's risk preference was boosted, and the market pricing mainline might shift from tariff policies to fundamental factors [2]. - The easing of Sino - US trade tensions led to a decline in the demand for safe - haven assets, causing a significant drop in gold prices. Gold is in a phased adjustment, and the adjustment time is expected to be long [3][4]. - The Sino - US joint statement relieved pressure on the global economy. Copper prices are expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation in the short term, supported by fundamentals but restricted by the rebound of the US dollar index [6][7]. - The progress of trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and the aluminum price rebounded. The continuous reduction of aluminum ingot social inventory indicates that consumption still has resilience [8]. - The Sino - US tariff negotiation achieved significant progress, and the alumina price is expected to continue to oscillate and recover due to the improvement of both macro and fundamental aspects [9][10]. - The Sino - US tariff reduction agreement alleviated concerns about the US economic recession. Zinc prices first rose and then fell, and are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term under the stimulation of macro - level benefits [11]. - The lead price was boosted by macro - level benefits but faced pressure at the integer level. There is a risk of a small - scale adjustment after the short - term benefits are digested [12]. - The reduction of Sino - US tariffs exceeded expectations, and the concern about the decline in tin demand eased. Tin prices were driven by the macro - level, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the 60 - day moving average [13][14]. - The smooth progress of Sino - US trade negotiations boosted risk preference. Industrial silicon is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend in the short term due to the supply - demand imbalance [15][16]. - The trend of lithium carbonate prices is unclear. It is recommended to wait and see due to the misalignment of upstream and downstream capacity structure investment and the unclear price trend [17][18]. - The Sino - US economic and trade forum results exceeded market expectations, and the Philippine nickel ore export ban might be implemented in June. Nickel prices are expected to rise [19][20]. - Although the Sino - US economic and trade results were positive, the oil price might return to a downward trend due to the expected increase in OPEC + production and the mediocre demand growth [22][23]. - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks boosted market sentiment. Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly, although the fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil are weak [24][25]. - The Sino - US tariff policy exceeded expectations, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate strongly due to the improved market sentiment, although the supply is generally loose [26]. - The USDA report was generally positive for soybeans. Domestic soybean inventories are accumulating rapidly, and the short - term soybean meal futures may oscillate and rebound. Rapeseed meal may follow the trend of soybean meal [27][28]. - The Sino - US trade negotiation achieved significant progress, and the palm oil price may oscillate in the short term due to the improvement of macro - level sentiment and the expected increase in inventory [29][30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated upward, and LME copper fell back after hitting 9600 US dollars. The spot market transaction was weak, and the LME inventory decreased to 19.1 million tons [6]. - The Sino - US joint statement relieved pressure on the global economy. The fundamentals still provide strong support, but the rebound of the US dollar index restricts the upward movement of copper prices. It is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation in the short term [7]. 3.1.2 Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 19,910 yuan/ton, up 1.66%. LME aluminum rose 2.15%. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to decline significantly, and the aluminum price tested the pressure above the 20,000 - yuan mark again [8]. 3.1.3 Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures rose 0.67%. The supply decreased due to factory maintenance and production reduction, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to continue to oscillate and recover [9][10]. 3.1.4 Zinc - On Monday, the main contract of zinc first rose and then fell. The import of zinc ingots supplemented the market supply, and the downstream procurement was weak. The inventory increased slightly, and the spot premium continued to decline. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11]. 3.1.5 Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated strongly during the day and gave back the gains at night. It is in the consumption off - season, the downstream procurement is insufficient, and there is a risk of a small - scale adjustment after the short - term benefits are digested [12]. 3.1.6 Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated sharply during the day and opened high and oscillated narrowly at night. The supply - demand is weak, and the tin price is driven by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the pressure of the 60 - day moving average [13][14]. 3.1.7 Nickel - On Monday, the nickel price oscillated widely. The Sino - US economic and trade forum results exceeded expectations, and the Philippine government plans to implement a nickel ore export ban in June. The nickel price may rise [19][20]. 3.1.8 Precious Metals - On Monday, international precious metal futures closed down. COMEX gold futures fell 3.06%, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.36%. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions reduced the demand for safe - haven assets, and the rebound of the US dollar index also pressured the prices [3]. 3.2 Energy 3.2.1 Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil oscillated strongly. The oil price has rebounded to near the previous high. Due to the expected increase in OPEC + production and mediocre demand growth, it may return to a downward trend [22][23]. 3.3 Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - On Monday, steel futures rose. The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks boosted market sentiment. Although the fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil are weak, steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly [24][25]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures rose. The Sino - US tariff policy exceeded expectations, and the market sentiment improved. Although the supply is generally loose, the iron ore price is expected to oscillate strongly [26]. 3.4 Agricultural Products 3.4.1 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the soybean meal 09 contract rose, and the rapeseed meal 09 contract fell. The USDA report was generally positive for soybeans. Domestic soybean inventories are accumulating rapidly, and the short - term soybean meal futures may oscillate and rebound. Rapeseed meal may follow the trend of soybean meal [27][28]. 3.4.2 Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil 09 contract rose. The Sino - US trade negotiation achieved significant progress, and the palm oil price may oscillate in the short term due to the improvement of macro - level sentiment and the expected increase in inventory [29][30]. 3.5 Others 3.5.1 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon rebounded from a low level. The supply - demand is imbalanced, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend in the short term [15][16]. 3.5.2 Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, the lithium carbonate price oscillated strongly. The trend is unclear due to the misalignment of upstream and downstream capacity structure investment and the unclear price trend. It is recommended to wait and see [17][18].

撰写品种：建材（螺纹、玻璃） 撰写时间： 2025.05.12 回顾周期：2025.05.05- 2025.05.09 研究员：张孟威 咨询证号（Z0020205） 建材周度报告 建材市场周报： 一、主要观点 本周（2025.05.05-05.09）建材继续维持下跌趋势，螺纹稍有抵抗，玻璃再创新低。 宏观方面，英美就关税贸易协定达成一致，成为关税战以来的首份协定，预示着市场 风险逐步减弱，资产波动率或均值回归。 螺纹现货成交周环比表现清淡，钢厂利润持续被压缩，虽然部分钢厂仍有微薄利 润，但整体产量周度环比有所下滑，随着传统淡季的逐步到来，剔除五一节假日影响 螺纹需求开始弱化，周度库存也有所累积，螺纹钢基本面边际走弱。玻璃方面，本周两 条产线冷修，产量环比下降，需求环比有所改善，但就一季度竣工面积数据来看，终端 地产仍较疲软，玻璃整体仍处在供大于求阶段，价格持续承压。 公司热线：028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉：4006821188 综上，建材淡季逐渐到来，就周环比数据来看，基本面已经有开始走弱迹象，随着 宏观环境的逐步好转，市场风偏逐步转强，或许能对建材 ...

市场信心迎来修复窗口 ——中美日内瓦经贸会联合声明点评 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 1、《507 国新办一揽子政策释放了哪 些信号？》2025-05-07 2、《2025 年五一假期全球市场表现 及国内外事件追踪》2025-05-05 3、《稳定预期，政策蓄力》2025-04-25 证券研究报告/策略事件点评报告 2025 年 05 月 12 日 分析师：徐驰 报告摘要 一、事件 分析师：张文宇 新华社 5 月 12 日发布中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明。声明提出，中华人民共和国政 府和美利坚合众国政府认识到双边经贸关系对两国和全球经济的重要性；认识到可持 续的、长期的、互利的双边经贸关系的重要性；鉴于双方近期的讨论，相信持续的协 商有助于解决双方在经贸领域关切的问题；本着相互开放、持续沟通、合作和相互尊 重的精神，继续推进相关工作。 二、点评 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 风险提示： 经济增速不及预期，政策力度不及预期，政策变化的节奏复杂性超预期，产业政策落 地不及预期等。 请务必阅 ...

中美关税冲突短期缓和 ——点评中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明 分析师：杨畅 执业证书编号：S0740519090004 Email：yangchang@zts.com.cn 分析师：夏知非 执业证书编号：S0740523110007 Email：xiazf01@zts.com.cn 2、双方在关税税率上达成较大幅度调降，表明双方对不希望出现贸易脱钩的极端情 况具有共识，关税冲突存在底线。由于谈判达成显著的实质性成果，市场风险偏好有 望短期缓和。 相关报告 3、联合声明强调"双方将建立机制，继续就经贸关系进行协商"，表明除了税率调降， 双方也达成机制性进展，未来"日内瓦机制"下的 90 天谈判期十分关键。预计美方 将进一步对华展开要价，谈判可能从关税延申至市场开放（加大购买）、服务贸易（知 识产权）以及投资等领域。 4、考虑到特朗普多变的重商主义行事风格、中美意识形态矛盾以及中国经济更加深 入的结构性变化，双方达成类似第一阶段经贸协议的 2.0 版可能会经历一定的博弈过 程，能否在 90 天内达成进展，从而使双方关税不再次急剧转变，还需要进一步观察， 因此不能排除关税反复风险。未来特朗普政府仍有涵盖药品、半导体等领 ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 摘要： 出口的坚韧与国内精炼铜消费的强劲可以形成相互验证，这种情况可能在 5 月份仍会有所持续，因此短期内国内精炼铜预计仍将维 持较强的去库格局，从而对价格、升水、月差带来较为明显的支撑，同时近期国内政治局会议也强调了政策对低价格的指引需求，这 也从一定程度上相当于为工业品划定了底线思维 。 1、上周金铜窄幅震荡 贵金属方面，上周 COMEX 黄金上涨 2,5 2%，白银 上涨 2.18%；沪金2506合约 上涨 0 .77%，沪银2506 合约下跌 0 .17%。主要工业金属价格中，COMEX铜、沪铜分别变动-0.93%、+0.3%。 2、贸易谈判延续，风险偏好回升 上周宏观方面较为平静，缺乏重要经济数据指引，同时美国的贸易谈判仍在开展，美国已经率先同英国达成贸易协定，并且 也已经与中国代表在瑞士展开谈判，所以整体宏观情绪较为平静，同时上周的美国初请失业金人数也出现下降，劳动力市场 短期内仍然稳固，市场急于定价美国经济衰退或者复苏都是不太合理的交易，因此价格本身的表现也较为平静。周末中美贸 易代表在瑞士的谈判结果对短期市场的走强可能有较强的 ...

2025 年 5 月 12 日 股指期货周报 正信期货研究院 股指期货周报 品种研究报告 风偏改善、指数上行，关注 4 月经济检验 市场回顾：海外英美达成贸易协定、权益风偏改善，国内降准降息落 地、政策预期支撑，随着利空因素逐渐落地、风险扰动边际减弱，节 后指数震荡上行，板块全线收涨。截至5月9日当周，沪深300跌0.36%、 上证 50 跌 0.84%、中证 500 涨 0.46%，中证 1000 涨 0.50%；IF 跌 0.55%、 IH 跌 1.01%、IC 涨 0.35%，IM 涨 0.59%。Shibor 隔夜利率下行 26 个 基点，DR007 下行 25.77 个基点，银行间市场利率边际下行。 宏观基本面：4 月政治局会议强调要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，外需扰动 背景下、内需引擎作用加强，宏观政策调控预期进一步加强，5 月劳 动节后降准降息落地，虽然一季度经济在逆周期调节的作用下超预期 修复，但二季度经济存在较大的回落压力，当前通缩压力仍然明显， 后续需要进一步关注宏观政策的提振作用和经济修复的内生动力。 观点策略：国内方面，4 月指数调 ...

首先，内外部环境有所改善，市场顺势反弹。近期，国际贸易冲突没有继续升级，世界各国与美国 的谈判陆续开始，全球正在交易贸易冲突的缓和。与此同时，上周三央行宣布降准降息，金融政策放松 以支持实体经济，市场因此受到鼓舞，重心略有上移。此外，年报和季报已经披露完毕，市场进入了业 绩真空期，主题投资亦有所活跃。当然，由于中美关税尚处于历史高位，出口行业正在受到一定影响， 投资者密切关注中美谈判进程以及后续增量政策的落实情况。 上周，两市震荡反弹，成交有所放大。节后归来，沪指连续上涨，周三高开后，直接回补了 4 月 7 日的向下跳空缺口，周五收盘已经重回 60 天和 120 天均线上方。深圳成指上周表现出补涨特征，但尚 未回补上方缺口。量能方面，上周两市日均量能超过 13000 亿左右，比四月最后一周有所增加，呈现放 量上行格局。上周市场热点主要集中在军工和高端制造业。投资风格方面，普涨格局下，投资风格差异 不明显。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指在周线箱体中轨线找到支撑，正在展开超跌反弹。沪指于三月中下旬，在 去年四季度的密集成交区间遇到较强技术阻力，开始进入调整。最终在周线的箱体中轨线附近找到支撑 并展开反弹。目前来看，沪指 ...

增加仓位的股性已经是许多基金产品留住基金持有人的关键策略。 近日，多只"重债轻股"的基金产品密集披露基金合同终止风险，这背后反映了基金持有人对市场的期待，与基 金产品重仓对象发生矛盾的现象。目前，基金持有人对市场走势的预期越来越多地指向权益类资产的反弹，一 些仓位配置严重偏离市场风格的基金产品面临较大的赎回压力。 多位基金公司人士判断，风险偏好已逐步回归，投资中国股市的机会成本快速下降，从而促使增量资金积极入 市。 股票买太少，密集提示产品存续风险 压缩股票仓位的基金产品，在当前市场中可能不太讨巧基金持有人。 5月10日，德邦基金发布公告称，旗下德邦新回报灵活基金根据《基金合同》的规定，《基金合同》生效后， 连续60个工作日出现基金份额持有人数量不满200人或者基金资产净值低于5000万元情形的，基金将按照基金 合同的约定终止并进入清算程序，无需召开基金份额持有人大会。截至5月8日，基金已连续50个工作日的基金 资产净值低于5000万元。 显而易见的是，在重仓基操作策略上，上述FOF以62%的压倒性优势配置到债券型基金产品上，而给予偏股型 基金产品不足6%的仓位，或成为该基金提示基金规模缩水的核心触发因素，即 ...