Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong is emerging as a significant financial hub amidst global market volatility, driven by capital inflows and the need for alternative financing options due to the ongoing tariff wars and the depreciation of the US dollar [2][23]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Hang Seng Index rose over 20% following the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," while the Hong Kong dollar reached a strong exchange rate of 7.75 against the US dollar [1]. - In the first half of 2025, net inflows from mainland China into the Hong Kong stock market exceeded 710 billion HKD, significantly higher than previous years [2]. - The Hong Kong IPO market saw a 700% year-on-year increase in funds raised, driven by international capital [2]. Group 2: Currency and Financial Stability - The US dollar index fell over 10% in the first half of 2025, marking its worst performance since 1973, leading to significant capital outflows from the US [3][23]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened multiple times to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar, injecting approximately 129 billion HKD into the financial system [5][10]. - The Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate fluctuated between strong and weak zones, prompting discussions on the benefits and drawbacks of the linked exchange rate system [5][39]. Group 3: Wealth Management and Investment Trends - Boston Consulting Group predicts that by 2029, Hong Kong will surpass Switzerland as the largest cross-border wealth management center globally [4]. - Wealth management revenues in Hong Kong increased significantly, with HSBC reporting a 14% rise in wholesale banking income in the first quarter [17][30]. - The average wealth of adults in mainland China is projected to continue growing, enhancing cross-border investment potential [32]. Group 4: RMB and Trade Financing - Hong Kong is the largest offshore RMB business hub, handling about 80% of global offshore RMB payments [18]. - Cross-border RMB settlements between China and ASEAN countries grew by 35% year-on-year, indicating a shift towards RMB financing [22]. - The demand for RMB in trade financing is increasing, reflecting a broader trend of "de-dollarization" in international trade [26]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The financial landscape in Hong Kong is expected to evolve with increased focus on offshore RMB markets and digital financial infrastructure [38][45]. - The capital from the Middle East is becoming a significant source of wealth for Hong Kong, with sovereign wealth funds projected to grow substantially [37]. - Hong Kong's unique position as a "super connector" between China and international markets is likely to enhance its financial stability and growth prospects [46].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves consistently for eight months, with a total of 2,298.55 tons as of June 30, 2023, although the pace of accumulation has slowed down compared to previous years [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Reserve Changes - In the first half of 2023, the People's Bank of China added a total of 18.97 tons of gold, which is nearly 10 tons less than the 28.93 tons added in the same period last year [1][2]. - The monthly gold purchases by the central bank have shown a decreasing trend, with May 2023 recording the lowest monthly addition of 1.87 tons [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Purchases - The slowdown in gold accumulation is attributed to three main factors: the need to control purchase costs, the optimization of foreign exchange reserve structure, and the rising gold prices expected in 2025 [2][3]. - The central bank's strategy is influenced by the weakening credibility of the US dollar and the increasing demand for diversification in foreign exchange reserves due to global economic uncertainties [5]. Group 3: Global Trends in Gold Accumulation - In the first quarter of 2023, global central banks added only 244 tons of gold, a 21% decrease compared to the previous year, indicating a broader trend of reduced gold purchases [4]. - Despite the decrease in gold accumulation, there is a strong expectation among central banks to continue increasing their gold reserves in the coming years, with 72% of central banks indicating plans to add to their gold holdings [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Analysts suggest that the second half of 2023 may see fluctuations in gold prices, with potential for increases due to ongoing geopolitical risks and the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5].

Core Insights - The development of stablecoins, particularly dollar-pegged stablecoins, has significant implications for the global economy and financial system, as highlighted by Zhou Xiaochuan [1][3][5] - While dollar stablecoins can enhance transaction efficiency and reduce costs, they also pose risks of dollarization, which can undermine monetary policy independence and financial stability in various countries [4][6] Summary by Sections Potential Impact of Dollar Stablecoins - Dollar stablecoins are primarily based on the US dollar and can improve efficiency in transactions and remittances, especially in cross-border payments due to their fast settlement and low costs [3] - They can also facilitate the purchase of various assets, including digital and crypto assets, thereby stimulating related markets [3] Risks and Side Effects of Dollarization - Dollarization refers to the widespread use of the US dollar in economic activities instead of local currencies, which has been observed in Central America and some transitioning economies [4] - It can weaken a country's monetary policy independence as the demand for local currency decreases, limiting the central bank's ability to manage monetary policy [4] - Dollarization may lead to financial instability, exposing local financial institutions to liquidity and exchange rate risks, often adopted in extreme situations like high inflation or debt [4] Cautious Considerations for Stablecoin Development - Zhou emphasizes the need for countries to carefully assess the impact of dollarization on their economies and financial systems when considering the promotion of domestic stablecoins [5] - The widespread use of dollar stablecoins could exacerbate the dominance of the US dollar in the global economy, affecting other nations' monetary and economic policies [5] - Countries should adopt a prudent approach in advancing stablecoin development to ensure alignment with their economic interests and financial stability goals [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,174 billion by the end of June 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of $322 billion, or 0.98% [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the decline in the US dollar index and the overall rise in global financial asset prices [1] - The dollar index fell by 2.5% in June, reaching its lowest point in three years at 96.9, leading to appreciation of non-US currencies such as the euro and pound, which rose by 3.89% and 2.1% respectively [1][2] - The stable growth of China's economy and resilient foreign trade contribute positively to the stability of foreign exchange reserves [2] Group 2: Market Conditions - The Barclays Global Aggregate Total Return Index (USD Hedged) increased by 1.0%, and the S&P 500 index rose by 5.0%, providing strong support for foreign reserves [2] - Despite a more complex and severe external environment, with weakened global economic momentum and high volatility in international financial markets, investor confidence in China's capital market remains strong [2]

| 纷瑞达期货 | | --- | 贵金属产业日报 2025-07-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 771.3 | -5.76 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8872 | -47 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 175760 | 720 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 229481 | -21237 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 141279 | -1840 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 85369 | -2361 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 21456 | 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 1330695 | -9051 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 767.8 | -3.2 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 8912 | 15 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -3.5 | 2.56 沪银主力 ...

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2025.07.07-07.11 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周黄金价格由"美元主导短期波动 + 美联储政策预期切换" 为核心： 美元走弱和降息预期升温推动前半周上涨，而非农数据超预期引发政策 预期修正和美元反弹，导致后半周回落。地缘风险和通胀数据提供间歇 性支撑，但市场情绪受制于数据敏感性和技术阻力。中长期看，全球去 美元化、财政赤字扩张及央行购金（2025年95%央行计划增持）仍构成 黄金底层支撑，但短期需警惕数据扰动及仓位调整风险。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 黄金主力合约2510短线偏空，下方支撑：754－760，上方压力 784－790。 n 本周策略建议 黄金主力合约2510短线偏空，下方支撑：754－760，上方压力784 －790。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 精选指标情况 [图片] 本报告数据 ...

·西南期货：贵金属的长期牛市趋势有望延续 ·中信建投期货：短期贵金属或因风险偏好上升而略有承压但长线支撑依然牢固 ·光大期货：短线不能排除金价大幅下跌的可能性 ·西南期货表示，当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，关税存在巨大不确定性。"逆全球化"和"去美元 化"大趋势，利好黄金的配置价值和避险价值。各国央行的购金行为对黄金走势也形成了支撑。如果美 国经济增速放缓，美联储有望开启降息，为黄金提供新的上涨驱动力。因此，贵金属的长期牛市趋势有 望延续，考虑做多黄金期货。 ·德商银行：避险需求仍是金价的主要支撑 ·SIA Wealth Management：即使美联储提前降息也不会给黄金带来大幅提振 【机构分析】 ·中信建投期货表示，特朗普再度推迟关税生效日期，或从8月1日开始征收，特朗普签署"大而美"法 案，短期或给美国经济带来支撑，市场风险偏好的提升或短期给贵金属带来压力，但长期来看，美国债 务负担将进一步提升，损害美元信用，贵金属长期支撑仍然充足。总体来看，短期贵金属或因风险偏好 上升而略有承压，长期则继续受益于美元信用的削弱，贵金属长线支撑依然牢固。 ·光大期货表示，近期市场相对平淡，宏观环境并未趋紧。市场预期美联 ...