Market Reaction - Asian markets opened in a typical risk-averse mode following the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, but there was no panic selling [1] - U.S. stock futures initially opened down about 1% but narrowed the decline to around 0.4% [1] - Oil prices surged initially, with WTI crude reaching $79 per barrel before retreating to $76, reflecting a 2.95% increase [5] - The dollar strengthened against the euro and most major currencies, with the dollar index rising 0.22% to 98.99 [7] - Gold prices initially spiked but then fell back, currently reported at $3,369 per ounce [9] Geopolitical Context - President Trump announced the completion of airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities, suggesting a potential regime change in Iran [1] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Iran's nuclear and missile programs have been significantly damaged, with military actions nearing completion [1] - Despite the escalating geopolitical tensions, Iran has not shown clear signs of retaliation, leading to a relatively restrained market response [2] Oil Market Implications - Analysts warn that if Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could spike to $120-$150 per barrel, significantly impacting the global economy [2][7] - The market is closely monitoring Iran's potential actions, with a 35% probability estimated for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [7] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, falling below the $100,000 mark for the first time since May, while Ethereum also saw substantial declines [10]

2025年06月23日 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 | | --- | 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘政治有所升级 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 3 | | 铜：伦铜现货走强，支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝：等待库存拐点 | 7 | | 氧化铝：窄幅震荡 | 7 | | 铝合金：区间震荡 | 7 | | 锌：供应过剩或渐显，偏承压 | 9 | | 铅：供需双弱，震荡运行 | 10 | | 锡：紧现实弱预期 | 11 | | 镍：远端镍矿端预期松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：供需边际双弱，钢价低位震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：临近交割月，关注仓单接货意愿 | 15 | | 工业硅：上方空间有限，逢高空配 | 17 | | 多晶硅：继续空配 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：矿端报价坚挺，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：铁水增量，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：铁水增量，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力 ...

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月23日 免费声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料、但厂发期货对这些信息的能确性及完整体不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人 员的不同观点、见解及分析方法。并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。 在任何情况下。 报告内容仅供参考,报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不 风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士,题权归广发期货所有,未经 构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价。 投资者据此投资, 广发期货书面授权. 任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发、需注明出处为广发期货。 6 关注微信公众号 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 张晓珍 Z0003135 些业期现日报 | 品中 | 6月20日 | 6月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 7347 | 7399 | -55 | -0.70% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7415 | 7462 | -47 | -0.63% ...

研究报告 橡胶周报 地缘提振供需宽松，盘面或将区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 13705-14100 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格窄幅震荡，总体微幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2509 报收 13900 元/吨，当周上涨 25 点，涨幅 0.18%。 【操作策略】 预计天然橡胶期货主力合约本周或将维持区间震荡。 操作上，建议保持观望，激进投资者可考虑区间操作。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 3 9 研究报告 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格窄幅震荡，总体微幅 上涨。 报告日 ...

Group 1: Report Overview and Core Views - The report is titled "Stock Index Futures: Phased Disturbance Phase, Long - term Trend Remains Unchanged" and was released on June 23, 2025 [1] - The core view is that this year's stock market is an oscillating upward trend driven by valuation expansion. However, the market valuation lacks a high margin of safety, and a shift from the crowded trading of small - cap stocks may lead to adjustments. In the later stage, maintain a long - position mindset but make comprehensive judgments based on technical, sentiment, and news factors, and consider the support levels of the CSI 300 spot index at 3800 and 3750 points. During market corrections, IH and IF are expected to be stronger than IM and IC [2] - Factors to watch include geopolitical situation changes and domestic policy directions [3] Group 2: Strategy Recommendations Short - term Strategy - The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM as 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4] Trend Strategy - Temporarily wait and see. If the adjustment intensifies, try to go long at low levels. The core operating ranges for the main contracts of IF2507, IH2507, IC2507, and IM2507 are 3690 - 3880 points, 2571 - 2690 points, 5421 - 5784 points, and 5727 - 6113 points respectively [4] Cross - variety Strategy - Go long on IF (or IH) and short on IC (or IM) [5] Group 3: Spot Market Review Global Stock Index Performance Last Week - In the US stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.02%, the S&P 500 fell 0.15%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.21%. In the European stock market, the UK's FTSE 100 fell 0.86%, Germany's DAX fell 0.7%, and France's CAC 40 fell 1.24%. In the Asia - Pacific market, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.5%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 1.52% [8] Performance of Major Domestic Indexes - Most major domestic indexes fell last week, with growth - style indexes experiencing larger declines [9] Industry Performance in Indexes - Most industries in the CSI 300 Index and the CSI 500 Index fell last week [14] Group 4: Stock Index Futures Market Review Performance of Futures Contracts - The main contract of IH rose last week, and the main contract of IM had the largest amplitude [17] Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures declined [21] Basis and Cross - variety Ratios - The report shows the basis (futures - spot) trends of stock index futures main contracts and cross - variety ratios of some index futures main contracts [22] Group 5: Index Valuation Tracking - As of June 20, the P/E (TTM) ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 14.64 times, 12.83 times, 11.07 times, 27.71 times, and 36.97 times respectively [23][24] Group 6: Market Fundamentals Review - The report presents data on the number of new investors in the two markets, the share of newly established equity - biased funds, the flat trend of capital interest rates last week, and the net capital injection of the central bank [26]

以下文章来源于培风客 ，作者Odysseus 首先我们要明白，现在的世界就处在战争和混乱的威胁当中，冷战和热战的概率都并不低，我能理解 很多朋友总是希望一切能好起来，但这可能还只是一个开始。也许还需要一段不短的时间，我们才能 回到以前的那种和平年代。我也很希望可以说，这个世界依然岁月静好，但现实并非如此。 在今天美国时间下午的袭击结束之后，我读了很多解读，我觉得虽然我并非专家，但有很多地方可以 分享。 在开始之前，我想说的一点是，政治尤其是地缘政治没有对错，对的人可以被杀全家，错的人可以活 很久，这都经常发生，所以 不要用道德和是非去判断地缘政治 。就像布林肯之前说的， 你要么在餐 桌上，要么在菜单上。 一个简单的框架 让我们先从一个框架开始，十多年前在我还很年轻的时候，我有一次在中东遇到了一位外交官，当时 中东已经非常混乱了，阿拉伯之春对每个人都造成了影响，而且比较搞笑的是，阿拉伯之春最开始的 设想和最后的结果是相反的，我很疑惑，我向他请教说，有没有一个简单的框架，可以让我了解中东 的局势和情况。我得到了一个地缘政治101框架中东版本，我觉得非常好用。 在中东，地区里面主要有三种势力， 宗教，军队和官僚 。 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货锌周报 需求深入淡季 20250622 作者：陈小国 交易咨询号：Z0021111 从业资格号：F03100622 0769-22116880 1 周度观点及策略 2 产业链结构 3 期限市场 4 库存端 5 供给端 6 需求端 7 其它 周度观点及热点资讯 周度观点 u 宏观：在向好的通胀、就业数据，以及依旧模糊的关税政策中，美联储6月议息会议依旧选择"按兵不动" ，会后美联储 官员提出后续通胀恶化的可能性，仍保持年内降息2次的预期。近期地缘政治扰动下避险情绪推动资金流入能源市场，大 宗商品走势得到一定提振。 u 供应：原料方面，海外二季度主流矿山产量表现较好，新投产矿山产出增长，全球锌精矿处于放量阶段；成品方面，下 周供应有增量预期炼厂为：山西耿翔科技有限公司，计划月底前恢复生产；云南云铜锌业股份有限公司当前生产趋于稳 定，长单已经开始招标，供货数量7000吨/月；后续供应有减量预期的炼厂为：广西华锡集团股份有限公司，从减产检修 扩大到停产检修，预计本月影响达到3000吨；中色锌业、白银有色等，计划7月开始年度检修。 u 需求：需求淡季持续深入 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The recent actions taken by the United States have intensified tensions, and the current situation may not be the worst yet [1] - The motivations behind these actions are complex, involving both economic structural issues and political interests of certain groups seeking to enhance their influence [2] - The U.S. measures have led to significant volatility in international markets, affecting stock prices and commodity prices, which has increased operational uncertainties for businesses [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. actions have contributed to a sustained increase in international tensions, prompting countries to reassess their relationships with the U.S. and complicating regional alliances [6] - There has been a notable increase in military activities in certain regions, leading neighboring countries to enhance their defense capabilities [6] - The erosion of trust in international relations is making it increasingly difficult to rebuild confidence, which could hinder globalization and reduce long-term capital flows [7] Group 3: Long-term Risks and Predictions - The ongoing hardline stance of the U.S. may exacerbate global tensions and lead to a broader restructuring of supply chains, potentially limiting progress in developing countries [8] - The potential for conflicts in certain regions to escalate poses a significant challenge to the existing international order [8]

市场终于跌了…不过市场跌不多，现在的买盘还是很强！板块之间的变化会比大盘的变化更多一些，机会也一样更多些。 我们对于本次股市出现短暂下跌，是乐观且期待的，因为这样，短暂的机会才会出现。但是我们还在等待的趋势性机会，可能还是不会有。 在今天这次的展望里，我们会给出对于目前市场上的几个主流资产的观点看法。 大家好，我是老丁 看一下本周整体的大盘情况，本周上证指数下跌0.51%，创业板指下跌1.66%，恒生科技指数下跌2.03%，恒生指数下跌1.52%，纳斯达克上涨0.72%（截止 周五盘前）。 现在市场上最值得关注的就是，茅台为首的白酒下跌，寒武纪为首的芯片阴跌，泡泡玛特为首的新消费回调，还有地缘政治带来的原油上涨。（因为所属 不同市场，我们会在下文详细表述这些） 这也是在下周如果要看机会需要着重关注的地方。其实这种机会，都是点状的，目前市场上没有发现趋势性机会….由此，我们也只能在暂时捉不到大鱼 的时候，也看看小鱼，哪怕不参与，验证一下观点也好。 刚过去的这一周，美联储公布了利率决议，表示不降息。现在利率还是维持在高位…根据历史经验，当美联储过去有过大的货币政策，居民和企业都大幅 借贷，然后后续货币政策从宽松又 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Neutral, expecting a sideways trend [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Neutral, with a range - bound outlook [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Neutral, with a long - term upward potential for gold [1][4] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Nickel)**: Copper - Neutral, Aluminum - Slightly Bullish, Nickel - Neutral [4] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bearish, with a downward trend [4][6] - **Silicon Energy**: Neutral, with limited price fluctuations [6] - **Steel and Ore (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore)**: Neutral, with a narrow - range sideways movement [6] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Bearish [8] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda Ash - Bearish, Glass - Bearish [8] - **Crude Oil**: Slightly Bullish [8][10] - **Methanol**: Bullish [10] - **Polyolefins**: Bullish [10] - **Cotton**: Slightly Bullish [10] - **Rubber**: Bearish [10] 2. Core Views - A - share market shows cautious sentiment in the short - term, lacking upward momentum and continuing the sideways pattern. However, with increasing capital volume and clear policy support, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [1] - The Treasury bond market is affected by overseas geopolitical issues to a limited extent. With the central bank's net injection in the open market, the bond market is running at a high level, but the trend is uncertain [1] - Precious metals are affected by geopolitical factors, with gold prices oscillating at a high level and a potential long - term upward movement. Silver is more volatile than gold [1][4] - Non - ferrous metals face supply - demand imbalances. Copper has supply constraints but weak demand; aluminum has supply concerns and low inventory support; nickel has an oversupply situation [4] - Carbonate lithium has an increasing supply and weak demand, with a downward price trend [4][6] - Silicon energy has sufficient supply and demand uncertainty, with limited price fluctuations [6] - Steel and ore markets have limited contradictions, and the pressure of raw material valuation adjustment has eased, with prices in a narrow - range sideways movement [6] - Coking coal and coke markets are bearish due to factors such as inventory accumulation and production reduction [8] - Soda ash has a high inventory and weak demand, while glass has a relatively loose supply and weak demand, both with a bearish outlook [8] - Crude oil prices are supported by geopolitical factors, and the future trend depends on the development of the Middle - East situation [8][10] - Methanol production is increasing, but downstream losses are expanding. If domestic coal - chemical plants start centralized maintenance, prices will rise further [10] - Polyolefins have stable production, and prices are supported by rising crude oil prices [10] - Cotton has a strengthening expectation of tight supply and demand, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10] - Rubber has an increasing supply and weakening demand, with limited potential for a trend - reversal [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Index Futures - Market sentiment is cautious, with limited short - term upward momentum. A - shares continue the sideways pattern, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of low - level long - position layout [1] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Overseas geopolitical issues have a limited impact on the domestic bond market. The central bank's net injection in the open market supports the bond market at a high level, but the trend is uncertain [1] 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold prices are oscillating at a high level, with a potential long - term upward movement. It is recommended to buy on dips or hold short - put options. Silver is more volatile than gold, and attention should be paid to stop - loss [1][4] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Copper - Supply is tight, but demand is weak due to macro uncertainties. Prices are affected by market sentiment and funds, with a sideways trend [4] 3.4.2 Aluminum - Alumina has an oversupply pressure, but the downward drive may slow down.沪铝 has low inventory support, with a slightly bullish outlook [4] 3.4.3 Nickel - The supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward momentum weakens at low prices. It is recommended to hold short - option strategies [4] 3.5 Carbonate Lithium - Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The price trend is downward [4][6] 3.6 Silicon Energy - Supply is sufficient, and demand is uncertain. Price fluctuations are limited, and it is recommended to hold short - put options [6] 3.7 Steel and Ore 3.7.1 Rebar - Supply is increasing, demand is stable, and inventory is decreasing at a slower pace. Prices are expected to move in a narrow range in the short - term, with a weak long - term trend. It is recommended to hold short - call options [6] 3.7.2 Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and demand are both increasing, with a slight inventory reduction. Prices are expected to move in a narrow range in the short - term. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts [6] 3.7.3 Iron Ore - Supply and demand are expected to shift from tight to balanced and slightly loose. Prices are expected to follow steel prices and move in a narrow range. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts [6] 3.8 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal production is decreasing, but inventory is increasing, with a bearish outlook. Coke production is decreasing, and prices are under downward pressure [8] 3.9 Soda Ash and Glass 3.9.1 Soda Ash - Supply is decreasing in the short - term, but inventory is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts or long - glass short - soda ash strategies [8] 3.9.2 Glass - Supply is relatively loose, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts or long - glass short - soda ash strategies [8] 3.10 Crude Oil - Prices are supported by geopolitical factors, and the future trend depends on the development of the Middle - East situation. It is recommended to hold long - call options [8][10] 3.11 Methanol - Production is increasing, but downstream losses are expanding. If domestic coal - chemical plants start centralized maintenance, prices will rise further [10] 3.12 Polyolefins - Production is stable, and prices are supported by rising crude oil prices [10] 3.13 Cotton - Supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10] 3.14 Rubber - Supply is increasing, demand is decreasing, and the potential for a trend - reversal is limited. Attention should be paid to the tire inventory cycle and demand improvement [10]