Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, as the dry season approaches and southwest production decreases, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The current industrial silicon futures are affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies promoting capacity exit, the futures price may rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average with large inventory pressure. Although production is decreasing, downstream demand may also weaken. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality, and relevant policies are expected to be introduced in the year [1][3][8]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9100 yuan/ton and closed at 9140 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 228,268 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 46,161, a decrease of 1092 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9600 - 9800 yuan/ton. The price in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained stable. The weekly output of Yunnan sample silicon enterprises was 6265 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 54%, a significant decrease from the previous week. As the dry season in Yunnan approaches, some local silicon furnaces have stopped production, and the operating rate is in a continuous downward trend. In November, only integrated enterprises or those with long - term order delivery needs will be in production, and the number of remaining operating furnaces may be less than 20 [1]. Consumption Analysis - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of silicone DMC was 11000 - 11300 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. Affected by the large - scale price adjustment of the leading manufacturer, downstream inventory replenishment increased, and market confidence was boosted. However, the problem of oversupply was still prominent, and the market was expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [2]. Strategy - The spot price is stable, and production in the southwest is decreasing, so the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies promoting capacity exit, the futures price may rise. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and long positions can be taken at low prices for dry - season contracts [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 56320 yuan/ton and closed at 56065 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 143,844 lots, and the trading volume was 215,288 lots [5]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 49.50 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 26.10 (with a month - on - month change of 1.16%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.93GW (with a month - on - month change of 2.49%). The weekly output of polysilicon was 28,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.41%, and the silicon wafer output was 14.24GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.32% [5]. - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.34 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.36 yuan/piece. The polysilicon output in October was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, production in the southwest will decrease significantly, and the output is expected to decline [7]. - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 was 0.31 yuan/W, Topcon G12 was 0.31 yuan/W (a decrease of 0.01 yuan/W), Topcon210RN was 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [7]. - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [7]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average, with large inventory pressure. The production has started to decrease recently, and the output in November may decrease month - on - month. The downstream production plan may also weaken. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality. Participants need to pay attention to risk management and follow up on policy implementation and spot price transmission. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to lay out long positions at low prices. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton [8].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The asphalt market is under pressure with local spot prices falling. The current fundamental situation of asphalt is weak, with sluggish terminal demand and concentrated release of long - term refinery resources, suppressing the spot market. Without significant fluctuations in the cost side, the market is expected to continue weak and volatile [2]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 3, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2601 in the afternoon session was 3,233 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 207,852 lots, a net increase of 7,905 lots, and the trading volume was 263,304 lots, a net increase of 82,215 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast 3,406 - 3,750 yuan/ton; Shandong 3,150 - 3,620 yuan/ton; South China 3,370 - 3,520 yuan/ton; East China 3,410 - 3,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot prices in North China, Shandong, South China, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions fell, while those in other regions remained relatively stable [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Weak and volatile, with a short - term focus on waiting and seeing. - Inter - period: No strategy. - Cross - variety: No strategy. - Futures - spot: No strategy. - Options: No strategy [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - PTA follows cost fluctuations. The market focus is on the increased maritime inventory of Russian oil. If most is compliant oil, there will be significant downward pressure on oil prices in Q4; if most is sanctioned oil, the impact on price decline is limited. PX load in China has recovered to a relatively high level, and the rebound space of PXN is limited. PTA has low processing fees and high inventory pressure after November. The demand side has improved marginally, but the long - term inventory accumulation expectation has limited improvement. Polyester demand has improved, and the load in November is expected to remain stable. PF has good fundamentals, and the processing difference is expected to be strong. PR processing fees are expected to fluctuate with raw materials [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures show TA & PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [8][9][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [15][18] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present toluene US - Asia spreads, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profits [23][24] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating loads of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX loads in China and Asia [26][29][31] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipt inventories of PX, PTA, and PF [34][37][38] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, and the inventory days and profits of filament factories, as well as the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and dyeing machines [46][48][59] PF Detailed Data - Figures show polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, and relevant operating rates and profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [68][74][80] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profits, and various month - to - month spreads [89][91][98]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy upstream prices are fluctuating, while the chemical mid - stream starts to increase. The report also presents various events in the production and service industries, as well as price and operation data of different industrial chains from upstream to downstream [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Mid - level Event Overview 3.1.1 Production Industry - On November 3, affected by rising production costs and continuous supply shortages, TSMC has started annual price negotiation with customers, with an expected 3% - 10% increase in advanced process prices in 2026. Samsung Electronics has suspended DDR5 DRAM contract quotes in October, and other storage manufacturers are expected to resume quotes around mid - November [1]. 3.1.2 Service Industry - China has decided to resume travel agencies' business of organizing Chinese citizens' group tours to Canada. The visa - free policy for France and other countries will be extended to December 31, 2026, and Sweden will be visa - free from November 10, 2025, to December 31, 2026 [1]. 3.2 Industry Overview 3.2.1 Upstream - **Black**: Iron ore prices have rebounded [3]. - **Agriculture**: Palm oil prices have declined [3]. - **Energy**: Liquefied natural gas prices have dropped [3]. 3.2.2 Mid - stream - **Chemical**: The PX start - up rate has been rising, and the urea start - up rate has remained stable [3]. - **Energy**: Coal inventories in power plants have increased [3]. - **Infrastructure**: The asphalt start - up rate has gone up [3]. 3.2.3 Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have decreased [3]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights has increased [3]. 3.3 Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On November 3, the spot price of corn was 2150.0 yuan/ton (- 0.20% year - on - year), eggs were 6.2 yuan/kg (- 1.13% year - on - year), palm oil was 8714.0 yuan/ton (- 3.39% year - on - year), cotton was 14859.2 yuan/ton (+ 0.19% year - on - year), and pork was 18.0 yuan/kg (- 0.28% year - on - year) [32]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On November 3, the spot price of copper was 86941.7 yuan/ton (- 1.48% year - on - year), zinc was 22328.0 yuan/ton (+ 0.59% year - on - year), aluminum was 21450.0 yuan/ton (+ 1.53% year - on - year), and nickel was 122216.7 yuan/ton (- 0.11% year - on - year) [32]. - **Ferrous Metals**: On November 3, the spot price of iron ore was 817.4 yuan/ton (+ 2.31% year - on - year), rebar was 3178.2 yuan/ton (+ 0.55% year - on - year), and wire rod was 3335.0 yuan/ton (+ 0.53% year - on - year) [32]. - **Non - metals**: On November 3, the spot price of glass was 13.9 yuan/square meter (0.00% year - on - year), and natural rubber was 14658.3 yuan/ton (- 1.29% year - on - year) [32]. - **Energy**: On November 3, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 61.0 dollars/barrel (- 0.85% year - on - year), Brent crude oil was 65.1 dollars/barrel (- 1.32% year - on - year), liquefied natural gas was 4320.0 yuan/ton (+ 2.53% year - on - year), and coal was 817.0 yuan/ton (+ 0.99% year - on - year) [32]. - **Chemical**: On November 3, the spot price of PTA was 4558.8 yuan/ton (+ 0.51% year - on - year), polyethylene was 7088.3 yuan/ton (- 0.49% year - on - year), urea was 1590.0 yuan/ton (- 2.15% year - on - year), and soda ash was 1204.3 yuan/ton (- 0.47% year - on - year) [32]. - **Real Estate**: On November 3, the national cement price index was 136.3 (+ 1.43% year - on - year), the building materials composite index was 113.0 points (+ 0.89% year - on - year), and the national concrete price index was 91.0 points (- 0.10% year - on - year) [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has high inventories and a supply surplus, and nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, the sharp reduction in nickel ore supply in the Philippines in the fourth quarter may lead to a rebound in nickel prices [3]. - The stainless - steel market has weak demand, rising inventories, and gradually weakening cost support. Stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,790 yuan/ton and closed at 120,950 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.26% compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 97,352 (- 1,139) lots, and the open interest was 108,671 (- 3,846) lots. The main contract showed a slight oscillatory upward trend. The Fed's hawkish stance strengthened the market's expectation of a cooling of the December interest - rate cut, and the stronger US dollar index may suppress the prices of foreign - market metals. But the RMB exchange - rate fluctuations offset the foreign - market pressure to some extent, and the import cost supported the domestic - market performance. China's comprehensive PMI output index in October remained at the critical point of 50.0%, showing overall economic stability and providing weak support for the demand for industrial metals [1]. - On November 20, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange changed the electrolytic nickel delivery standard. From this date, electrolytic nickel produced according to GB/T 6516 - 2025 and ASTM B39 - 79(2023) is allowed to be used to make standard warehouse receipts for delivery. From November 18, 2027, electrolytic nickel produced according to GB/T 6516 - 2010 and ASTM B39 - 79(2013) cannot be warehoused to make standard warehouse receipts, but the existing ones can still be used for futures - contract delivery. The new standard improves the quality requirements for delivery products and sets a two - year transition period, which has a neutral - to - strong impact on prices in the long term [1]. - The nickel ore market was calm, and prices remained stable. There was strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and factory procurement enthusiasm was low. In the Philippines, increased rainfall in the Surigao mining area may cause delays in shipping. Downstream nickel - iron prices were under pressure, and iron plants were reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is + 26, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 27 [2]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was okay. Indonesian Yongheng nickel began to flow into the domestic market, and the spot premiums of various brands were slightly adjusted. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse - receipt volume was 31,206 (- 182) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 252,750 (+ 648) tons [2]. Strategy - The strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,675 yuan/ton and closed at 12,630 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 107,662 (- 12,218) lots, and the open interest was 77,047 (- 4,171) lots. The main contract continued the oscillatory weakening trend, mainly affected by the weakening of the black - metal sector [3][4]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange updated the daily - target requirements for hot - rolled coil and stainless - steel futures contracts. The new standards mainly improve the quality requirements for delivery products and set a six - month transition period, which has a neutral - to - strong impact on prices in the long term [4]. - Market demand remained weak, spot trading was light, and traders faced great pressure to sell. Prices were lowered. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,900 (- 50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,950 (- 50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 295 - 595 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 922.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - The strategy for stainless steel is neutral for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Urea spot prices decreased yesterday, and low - price transactions improved. Short - term fluctuations are expected. In the short term, autumn fertilizer production for agriculture is ongoing in some areas, and the overall operating rate has increased with the recovery of equipment. The production of autumn fertilizers for compound fertilizers is nearing completion, and the inventory of compound fertilizers for winter wheat is mainly being cleared. With the improvement of weather, the sentiment of product sales has improved. The operation of melamine has increased slightly, with rigid demand for procurement. In the long - term, due to the release of new production capacity, the supply and demand of urea will remain relatively loose. Gas - fired equipment maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. The factory inventory decreased last week, and the highest inventory is still in Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the operating rate of compound fertilizers in the Northeast, the raw material procurement rhythm, and the national light - storage rhythm. Urea is still affected by export sentiment, and the export policy may change. [2] - Strategies: For single - side trading, expect range - bound fluctuations; for inter - period trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for cross - variety trading, there is no specific strategy. [3] 3. Summary by Directory I. Urea Basis Structure - The report provides information on the market prices of small - sized urea in Shandong and Henan, as well as the basis of the main continuous contracts in Shandong and Henan, and the price of the urea main continuous contract and relevant spreads. [1][6][7] II. Urea Production - The report shows the weekly production of urea and the loss of urea plant maintenance. [17][22] III. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes the production cost, spot production profit, and the operating rates of coal - based and gas - based urea production. [25][26][29] IV. Urea Foreign Market Prices and Export Profits - The report presents the FOB prices of small - sized urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR prices of large - sized urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB prices of small - sized and large - sized urea in China, and the export profit and on - paper export profit of urea. [31][33][37] V. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It shows the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, as well as the number of days of pending orders. [46][47][48] VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes the upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract. [51][54][55] Market Data Summary - **Price and Basis**: On November 3, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,623 yuan/ton (- 2). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,560 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,560 yuan/ton (- 30), and in Jiangsu was 1,560 yuan/ton (- 20). The price of small - sized anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis in Shandong was - 63 yuan/ton (- 28), in Henan was - 63 yuan/ton (- 18), and in Jiangsu was - 63 yuan/ton (- 18). The urea production profit was 30 yuan/ton (- 30), and the export profit was 904 yuan/ton (+ 32). [1] - **Supply Side**: As of November 3, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.32% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.5543 million tons (- 75,900 tons), and the port sample inventory was 110,000 tons (- 100,000 tons). [1] - **Demand Side**: As of November 3, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 31.04% (+ 3.33%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 49.98% (+ 1.68%), and the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 7.53 days (+ 0.12). [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral [6]. - The investment rating for BR is also neutral [6]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For natural rubber, with the recovery of domestic arrivals, Qingdao port inventory has rebounded. Despite potential further inventory increases, strong cost - side support due to raw material price firmness in overseas main producing areas may limit short - term downward adjustment. The domestic futures price is undervalued, but with insufficient supply - demand drivers, prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [6]. - For butadiene rubber (BR), the recent price decline is mainly due to cost - side drag. The upstream raw material butadiene has a weak price trend due to increased supply and weakened demand. However, with resilient downstream demand and the current low absolute price, the downward space is expected to be limited [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,095 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,200 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,360 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,720 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, reaching a new high in the same period in recent years [2]. - In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, standard rubber exports totaled 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; smoked sheet exports were 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; latex exports were 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, standard rubber exports to China totaled 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; smoked sheet exports to China totaled 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; latex exports to China totaled 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [2]. - In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. Automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million vehicles for the first time in the same period in history, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for 5 consecutive months [3]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 5.3491 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires in the first three quarters was 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [3]. - In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On November 3, 2025, the RU basis was - 495 yuan/ton (- 10), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 495 yuan/ton (+ 60), the NR basis was 769.00 yuan/ton (- 43.00); whole latex was 14,600 yuan/ton (+ 0), mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (- 50), and 3L spot was 15,100 yuan/ton (+ 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,830 US dollars/ton (- 10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 500 yuan/ton (- 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,400 yuan/ton (- 50) [4]. - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 60.00 Thai baht/kg (- 0.10), Thai rubber latex was 56.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), Thai cup lump was 51.90 Thai baht/kg (- 1.40), and the spread between Thai rubber latex and cup lump was 4.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 1.40) [4]. - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.34% (- 0.53%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.12% (- 0.72%) [5]. - Inventories: The social inventory of natural rubber was 447,668 tons (+ 15,439), the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,038,951 tons (- 11,478), the RU futures inventory was 120,900 tons (- 3,120), and the NR futures inventory was 44,655 tons (+ 2,015) [5]. Butadiene Rubber (BR) - Spot and spreads: On November 3, 2025, the BR basis was - 60 yuan/ton (- 75), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,500 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,000 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton (- 250), the price of private - owned butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,050 yuan/ton (- 300), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 2,285 yuan/ton (- 211) [5]. - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.90% (- 4.81%) [5]. - Inventories: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 3,680 tons (- 840), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,200 tons (- 1,450) [5]. Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. With the recovery of domestic arrivals, Qingdao port inventory has increased. Although inventory may further increase, strong cost - side support may limit short - term downward adjustment. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [6]. - For BR, maintain a neutral view. The recent price decline is due to cost - side drag, but with resilient downstream demand and low absolute price, the downward space is limited [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][5][7] Core Views - **Cotton**: In the short term, the upper limit of the cotton futures market is under significant hedging pressure, and there is a possibility of a callback to test previous lows after cost solidification. In the long - term, the beginning inventory of the new year is low, consumption is resilient, and the current cotton price is undervalued. After the seasonal pressure, the cotton price can be optimistically viewed [2] - **Sugar**: Before the end of the year, the sugar market is expected to fluctuate. Next year, the situation is not optimistic, and there is a possibility of new lows [5] - **Pulp**: The fundamental improvement of the pulp market is insufficient, and the pulp price is likely to remain in the bottom - range fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of demand during the peak season in the fourth quarter [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,600 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,656 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,859 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [1] - US Cotton: From October 24 to 30, 2025, 202,500 tons of US 2025/26 cotton were graded and inspected, with 80.7% meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements [1] Market Analysis - International: Sino - US negotiations have made progress, pushing up US cotton prices, but the amount of US cotton China will purchase is unclear. The US government shutdown has delayed key data release, and the short - term upside of the outer market is limited due to supply and demand pressure [2] - Domestic: The new cotton year starts with low inventory, but new cotton is being listed. The purchase price of seed cotton is rising, and the expected decline in production supports the post - holiday market. However, the short - term upside of cotton prices is limited due to hedging and weak demand [2] Strategy - Neutral. In the short term, there is a high hedging pressure on the market, and in the long - term, the cotton price can be optimistically viewed after seasonal pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5499 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.29%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5695 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [2] - New Sugar: On October 30, 2025, Yingmao Sugar Industry's Mengpeng Sugar Mill started production, and the new sugar is priced at 5700 yuan/ton, 710 yuan lower than the same period last year [3] Market Analysis - International: The global sugar market is in a bearish cycle due to oversupply from Brazil and India. Although the sugar - making ratio in Brazil has decreased recently, the long - term rebound of raw sugar is limited [4] - Domestic: The new sugar season in China is expected to have increased production, but the price is near the production cost, and the tightening of syrup control policies supports the price, limiting the downside [4] Strategy - Neutral. The market will fluctuate before the end of the year, and there may be new lows next year [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract yesterday was 5306 yuan/ton, up 94 yuan/ton (+1.80%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5045 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton [5] - Market: The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market is rising moderately, with different price increases in various regions and pulp types [5] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans have limited impact on the overall supply. Domestic imports have increased, and port inventories remain high [6] - Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the United States and insufficient domestic demand are suppressing pulp prices. Despite new production capacity, effective demand is lacking, and paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [6] Strategy - Neutral. The pulp price is likely to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for soybeans is neutral [3] - The investment rating for peanuts is also neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - The soybeans market is currently in a state of oversupply, and there is a risk of price correction during the concentrated selling period. The price increase in the short - term is limited due to high prices and competition from the Huanghuaihai region [1][3] - The peanut market shows large variety and regional price differences. Attention should be paid to farmers' subsequent shipping enthusiasm and the acquisition intention of major oil mills [3][5] Market Analysis Soybeans - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2601 contract yesterday was 4076.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 26.00 yuan/ton (- 0.63%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A01 + 4, a change of + 26 (+ 32.14%) from the previous day. The warehouse capacity is saturated, the acquisition is difficult, and the price is high. Some grain merchants are shifting their focus from acquisition to sales [1][2] - Market information: The price of new - season soybeans in the Northeast market is stable. Farmers' willingness to hold prices has loosened, and the atmosphere of panic buying has cooled [1] Peanuts - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2601 contract yesterday was 7800.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 12.00 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 7950.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 120.00 yuan/ton (+ 1.53%) from the previous day. The spot basis was PK01 + 0.00, a change of - 88.00 (- 100.00%) from the previous day [3] - Market information: The national average price of common peanuts is basically stable, with large variety and regional price differences. The contract purchase price of oil mills is 7800 - 8200 yuan/ton for common peanuts and 7750 - 7800 yuan/ton for oil peanuts, with strict quality control and general arrival volume [3] Strategy Soybeans - The new - season soybeans in the Hubei and Hunan regions are gradually on the market, and downstream demand is picking up. However, due to high prices and competition, the short - term market will be stable, and the price increase space is limited. The unilateral strategy is neutral [3] Peanuts - The strategy is neutral, and the risk is weakening demand [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the consensus on key economic and trade issues between China and the US, futures prices have declined. The apparent demand for rebar continued to rise last week, production increased, but the total inventory declined slowly. Hot-rolled coil inventory has far exceeded the same period after a significant increase. Coking coal and coke spot prices are running strongly, providing some support for costs. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill margins and the approaching end of the consumption peak, steel mills are expected to cut production, which may trigger a phased negative feedback cycle. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil are likely to turn into a volatile trend [2]. - In the iron ore market, the sample steel mill's molten iron production decreased significantly on a weekly basis. Due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills may continue to cut production, suppressing raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have declined from their peak, and the port inventory increase during the consumption peak has suppressed the futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampens the overall market sentiment. After the macro positive factors are realized, the futures prices face correction pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar futures main contract was 3,079 yuan/ton, down 0.87% from the previous day and 0.68% from last week; the closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures main contract was 3,295 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day and 0.12% from last week. The spot price of rebar (HRB400E 20mm, Shanghai) was 3,220 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous day and up 0.31% from last week; the spot price of hot-rolled coil (Q235 4.75mm, Shanghai) was 3,310 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day and 0.60% from last week [3]. - **Production and Inventory**: The national rebar production of building material steel mills was 212.59 million tons, up 2.67% from last week; the hot-rolled coil production was 323.56 million tons, up 0.34% from last week. The total social inventory of five major steel products was 1,077.08 million tons, down 2.06% from last week; the rebar social inventory was 430.81 million tons, down 1.52% from last week; the hot-rolled coil social inventory was 328.93 million tons, down 2.56% from last week [3]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products was 916.4 million tons, up 2.65% from last week; the apparent demand for rebar was 232.18 million tons, up 2.73% from last week; the apparent demand for hot-rolled coil was 331.89 million tons, up 1.58% from last week [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude, do not chase up or sell down, and consider buying on dips after a correction [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore futures main contract was 782.5 yuan/dry ton, down 2.19% from the previous day and 0.51% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract was 106.79 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.24% from the previous day and up 2.51% from last week [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The sample steel mill's molten iron production decreased significantly on a weekly basis. Global iron ore shipments declined from the peak, and the port inventory increased during the consumption peak. Steel mills may continue to cut production, suppressing iron ore prices [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude and patiently wait for the price to correct before buying on dips [5]. 3.3 Industry News - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 33.141 billion tons, a week-on-week increase of 12.298 billion tons; the total arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 32.184 billion tons, a week-on-week increase of 11.893 billion tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 15.859 billion tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.9 billion tons [7]. - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the total global iron ore shipments were 32.138 billion tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.745 billion tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 27.592 billion tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.667 billion tons [7]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, at the end of October, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 9.05 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 310,000 tons, a decrease of 3.3%. The inventory continued to decline slightly [7].