Group 1: Coal Industry Insights - The 2026 coal supply contract plan aligns with expectations, with the port benchmark price remaining unchanged at 675 RMB/ton, slightly exceeding expectations [5][6] - The contract signing quantity remains consistent, with a flexible expression for compliance; coal enterprises are required to fulfill at least 75% of their own resource quantity [5] - The pricing mechanism for coal contracts has been adjusted to include a monthly price adjustment mechanism for production area contracts, making it more responsive to market changes [5] Group 2: Company Analysis - Zhejiang Natural - Zhejiang Natural reported a revenue of 818 million RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.48%, but Q3 revenue declined by 30.38% [7] - The company’s gross profit margin decreased by 1.30 percentage points to 34.00% for the first three quarters of 2025, with Q3 gross profit margin at 28.23% [7] - Despite challenges, the company expects a recovery in Q4 2025, driven by the release of capacity from overseas subsidiaries and strong customer relationships [7] Group 3: Company Analysis - Zhongheng Electric - Zhongheng Electric launched two 800VDC solutions aimed at enhancing efficiency in new and existing data centers, potentially increasing system efficiency to 98.5% [9][13] - The company achieved a revenue of 1.42 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.3%, although net profit decreased by 15.6% [13] - Future growth is anticipated as the company expands its high-voltage direct current (HVDC) solutions in both domestic and international markets [13]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 广期所对碳酸锂限仓，近期亢奋情绪或 降温 新能源观点：⼴期所对碳酸锂限仓，近期亢奋情绪或降温 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需双增，供需延续偏紧格局，库存去化加快；工 业硅和多晶硅供需表现分化，但累库风险在变大。中短期来看，现实 供需偏好，碳酸锂去库加快，投资者乐观情绪驱动碳酸锂价格加速走 高，但广期所开始对碳酸锂限仓，近期亢奋情绪或降温，谨防双边波 动风险；光伏协会上周中快速辟谣收储传闻，硅料供应端收缩政策仍 可期，硅料价格也呈现出下方有支撑的特征。长期来看，硅供应端收 缩预期较强，尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升 阶段，但需求预期也在不断拔高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，碳酸锂长 期供需走向需要重新审视。 ⼯业硅观点：情绪回落供需仍偏弱，硅价震荡运⾏。 多晶硅观点：政策预期反复，多晶硅⾼位震荡。 碳酸锂观点：交易情绪有所降温，注意锂价⾼位波动。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-11-21 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 ...

Core Economic Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, exceeding the previous year's growth by 0.4 percentage points, indicating good progress towards the annual target of around 5% [12][24] - However, the growth rate showed a "front-high and back-low" trend, with the third quarter's growth slowing to 4.8% due to the impact of "anti-involution" policies [12][24] Consumption - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, but the growth rate slowed to 3.5% in the third quarter, primarily due to the diminishing effect of the old-for-new policy and a continuous slowdown in residents' income growth [15][24] - Service consumption remained resilient, with a 5.2% year-on-year increase in the first three quarters, outperforming goods retail growth of 4.6% [15][24] Investment - Fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a significant drop to -6.2% in the third quarter, driven by weak performance in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments [16][24] - Real estate investment saw a decline from -12.1% in the second quarter to -19.2% in the third quarter, remaining the largest drag on fixed asset investment growth [16][24] Export - Exports grew by 6.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a slight increase to 6.5% in the third quarter, supported by non-US markets and key products like integrated circuits, electric vehicles, and lithium batteries [17][24] - The easing of US-China trade tensions, including a 10% reduction in average tariffs on Chinese goods, is expected to positively impact foreign trade performance and business expectations in the fourth quarter [25][24] Policy and External Environment - Domestic policies are focused on stabilizing demand, with fiscal measures including the issuance of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools and an additional 500 billion yuan in local government debt quotas to support project construction and debt repayment [12][24] - Monetary policy has resumed bond purchase operations, emphasizing the use of structural tools to support the economy [20][24] Outlook for Q4 - Economic recovery is anticipated in the fourth quarter, supported by coordinated policy efforts and resilient export performance, making it likely to achieve the annual growth target of around 5% [4][25] - However, potential pressures from high base effects, insufficient internal consumption momentum, and high real estate inventory levels should be monitored [5][24]

Core Viewpoint - The market opened higher but experienced a decline, with the CSI A500 index rising by 0.11%. The banking sector showed strength, while consumer sectors like tourism, food, retail, and textiles weakened. The overall market sentiment remains supported by ongoing global tech investment enthusiasm and policies promoting economic stability [1]. Market Performance - The CSI A500 index saw a slight increase of 0.11% in early trading. The banking sector performed well, while sectors related to tourism, food, retail, and textiles faced declines [1]. - As of the morning close, ETFs tracking the CSI A500 index experienced slight gains, with 12 ETFs exceeding a trading volume of 100 million yuan, and 3 surpassing 2.9 billion yuan. Specific ETFs such as A500ETF Fund, A500ETF Huatai-PB, and A500ETF E-Fund had trading volumes of 3.704 billion yuan, 3.270 billion yuan, and 2.906 billion yuan respectively [1]. ETF Trading Data - A500ETF Fund: Current price 1.159, up 0.17%, trading volume 3.704 billion yuan [2] - A500ETF Huatai-PB: Current price 1.232, up 0.16%, trading volume 3.270 billion yuan [2] - A500ETF E-Fund: Current price 1.187, up 0.25%, trading volume 2.906 billion yuan [2] - Other notable ETFs include A500ETF South, A500ETF Jias, and A500ETF Leading, with respective trading volumes of 2.627 billion yuan, 1.093 billion yuan, and 620.1 million yuan [2]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the foundation for the current slow bull market remains intact, supported by factors such as sustained global tech investment enthusiasm, ongoing "anti-involution" policies, and increased household savings entering the market. There is potential for the A-share index to continue strengthening in the future [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are affected by emotions and news, with significant price fluctuations. The industrial silicon market may see an improved supply - demand pattern after southwest production cuts, while the polysilicon market has large inventory pressure and is affected by policies and weak reality [3][7] - For industrial silicon, the current valuation is low, and if there are relevant policies, the price may rise. For polysilicon, the consumption side performs averagely, and the market is expected to be volatile [3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 19, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8985 yuan/ton and closed at 9390 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan/ton (4.68%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 306,669 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 43,412 lots, up 10 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton [1] - The price of organic silicon DMC was 13000 - 13200 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton. Other downstream product prices also rose, with a cumulative increase of about 1700 - 2200 yuan/ton in a week [2] Strategy - The spot price is stable with some increases. After southwest production cuts, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the total inventory has decreased. The current industrial silicon market is affected by overall commodity emotions and policy news. It is recommended to operate in the short - term range, and consider going long on dry - season contracts at low prices [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 19, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures oscillated strongly, opening at 52,300 yuan/ton and closing at 54,625 yuan/ton, up 4.28% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 134,317 lots, and the trading volume was 361,538 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.09% month - on - month to 26.70, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 5.14% month - on - month to 18.42GW. The weekly polysilicon production was 26,800 tons, down 0.74% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer production was 13.12GW, down 2.45% month - on - month [4] - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.26 yuan/piece (down 0.01 yuan), N - type 210mm was 1.60 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.27 yuan/piece (down 0.01 yuan). The polysilicon production in October was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, and the production in November in the southwest region was expected to decline [6] - The prices of battery cells and components remained relatively stable [6] Strategy - The supply and demand of polysilicon have both weakened, with large inventory pressure. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted, resulting in large market fluctuations. It is recommended to operate in the short - term range, and the 12 - contract is expected to oscillate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call primarily discusses China's economic development goals and macroeconomic policies as outlined in the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, focusing on high-quality development and technological self-reliance [1][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Growth Targets**: By 2035, China's per capita GDP is targeted to exceed $20,000, implying a nominal growth rate of approximately 3.5% and a real growth rate of about 4.17% over the next decade [1][2]. - **High-Quality Development**: The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes high-quality development and technological advancement, marking a shift from previous plans that prioritized economic growth alone [4][5]. - **Supply-Side Policies**: Future demand-side policies will focus on supply-side stimulation, such as providing financial support to enterprises and encouraging innovation, rather than direct fiscal stimulus [9][10]. - **Consumer Spending**: There is an increasing market focus on the consumer sector, with expectations for policies aimed at boosting consumer spending, although the effectiveness of these measures may be gradual [6][7]. - **Export Performance**: China's strong export performance in 2025 is attributed to the expansion into non-U.S. markets and increased overseas investment, rather than a strategy of "grabbing exports" [3][14][15]. - **Fiscal Policy Outlook**: Despite a projected fiscal deficit rate of 4.0% in 2025, the overall fiscal policy will remain prudent, focusing on enhancing fiscal efficiency and supporting national strategic tasks [12][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Technological Self-Reliance**: The emphasis on technological self-reliance indicates a significant shift in policy priorities, reflecting the need to enhance domestic capabilities in the face of global competition [4][5]. - **Impact of Global Economic Environment**: The anticipated shift towards expansive fiscal and monetary policies in developed countries by 2026 is expected to improve the global demand environment, benefiting China's exports [16]. - **Consumer Services Expansion**: Efforts to expand high-quality service consumption include large-scale events and reforms to reduce barriers to consumer spending, such as easing restrictions on car purchases [8][11]. - **AI and Economic Outlook**: The discussion on AI suggests that current valuations in the tech sector do not indicate a bubble similar to the 2000 internet bubble, as AI's impact on economic growth is still developing [17][18]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into China's economic strategies and the implications for various sectors.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The adjusted net income for the company was RMB 2.51 billion, reflecting a 5% increase year-over-year [4][10] - Total revenue increased by 11.1% to RMB 11.9 billion, driven by both volume and price increases [11] - Gross profit decreased by 11.4% to RMB 3 billion, with a gross margin rate dropping 6.3 percentage points to 24.9% [13] - Operating cash flow for the quarter was RMB 3.2 billion, representing a 3.2% increase [13] - Capital expenditure for Q3 totaled RMB 1.2 billion, with an annual CapEx forecast of RMB 5.5 billion to RMB 6 billion for 2025 [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The parcel volume reached 9.57 billion, growing 9.8% year-over-year [4][10] - The average selling price (ASP) for the core express delivery business increased by 1.7% or RMB 0.02 [10] - The combined unit cost of sorting and transportation decreased by RMB 0.05 year-over-year, benefiting from economies of scale [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The express delivery industry in China experienced steady growth, with overall pricing levels stabilizing and beginning to recover [4][6] - The retail parcel volume grew close to 50% year-over-year, indicating strong growth momentum [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on a balanced approach to quality-first growth, enhancing service capabilities and operational efficiency [4][8] - Future priorities include upholding service quality, deepening last-mile capabilities, optimizing network policies, advancing cost efficiency, and safeguarding fairness [7][8] - The company aims to shift from high volume to a focus on both quality and quantity, adapting to the changing competitive landscape [8][34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the express delivery industry is undergoing a strategic shift towards high-quality development amid a backdrop of regulatory changes [8][24] - The company expects industry volume growth to stabilize around 10% next year, with a focus on service quality and operational efficiency [33][34] - Management views the recent regulatory consultations as an opportunity for improvement and alignment with industry standards [24][29] Other Important Information - The company is committed to investing in automation and digitization to enhance operational capabilities and maintain competitive advantages [24][29] - The anti-involution policy is expected to promote healthier competition and stabilize market rates above cost levels [22][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Industry structure and outlook - Management believes that scale, better services, and higher efficiency will lead to greater opportunities in a fragmented industry landscape [16][17] Question: Impact of anti-involution on market pricing - Management indicated that the anti-involution policy aims to rationalize pricing and promote healthy competition, expecting market rates to stabilize [22][23] Question: Recent regulatory consultations - Management stated that the consultations are consistent with anti-involution policies and are viewed as a reminder for internal improvements [24][25] Question: Volume slowdown and competitive dynamics - Management acknowledged a recent deceleration in industry growth, primarily due to price increases affecting low-margin e-commerce merchants [32][33] Question: Cost reduction and CapEx challenges - Management emphasized ongoing efforts to improve cost efficiency across all segments and maintain competitive advantages despite industry changes [37][39]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's parcel volume grew by 9.8% year over year, reaching 9.57 billion parcels in Q3 2025 [4][10] - Adjusted net income increased by 5% to RMB 2.51 billion [4][10] - Total revenue rose by 11.1% to RMB 11.9 billion, driven by both volume and price increases [11] - Gross profit decreased by 11.4% to RMB 3 billion, with gross margin dropping by 6.3 percentage points to 24.9% [12] - Operating cash flow was RMB 3.2 billion, representing a 3.2% increase [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average selling price (ASP) for the core express delivery business increased by 1.7% or RMB 0.02, with a positive contribution from an increase in key account (KA) volume [10] - The combined unit cost of sorting and transportation decreased by 7.7% or RMB 0.05, benefiting from economies of scale [11] - Unit costs for line haul transportation decreased by 11.5% to RMB 0.34, while unit sorting costs remained stable at RMB 0.25 [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The express delivery industry in China experienced steady growth, with overall pricing levels stabilizing and beginning to recover due to government interventions [4][10] - The industry volume growth exhibited some moderation entering Q4, with uncertainties in microeconomic recovery still present [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on a balanced approach to quality-first growth, enhancing service quality and cost efficiency [4][5] - Future priorities include strengthening last-mile capabilities, optimizing network policies, and advancing end-to-end cost efficiency [6][7][8] - The company aims to shift from high volume to a focus on both quality and quantity, addressing challenges posed by low-priced parcels [8][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term prospects of the express delivery and logistics industry despite short-term challenges [5][10] - The company views the regulatory environment and anti-involution policies as opportunities for growth and improvement [24][30] - Management anticipates industry volume growth to stabilize around 10% next year, with a shift towards higher quality and operational efficiency [34] Other Important Information - Capital expenditure for Q3 totaled RMB 1.2 billion, with an annual CapEx forecast of RMB 5.5 billion to RMB 6 billion for 2025 [14] - The company is committed to investing in automation and digitization to enhance operational capabilities [24][30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Industry structure and outlook - Management believes that scale, better services, and higher efficiency will lead to greater opportunities in a fragmented industry landscape [16][17] Question: Impact of anti-involution on market pricing - The anti-involution policy aims for rational recovery in pricing, promoting healthier competition and sustainable long-term growth [21][22] Question: Volume slowdown and competitive dynamics - The recent deceleration in industry growth is attributed to price increases affecting low-margin e-commerce merchants, with expectations for volume growth to stabilize around 10% next year [32][34] Question: Cost reduction challenges and CapEx growth - Management is focused on cost efficiency and believes that attention to end-to-end coordination will maintain cost leadership despite industry changes [36][40]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased from 1017 yuan/ton to 1009 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.79%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass dropped from 1016 yuan/ton to 1000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.57%. The main basis increased from - 1 yuan/ton to - 9 yuan/ton, a rise of 800.00% [5]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1000 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. Fundamental - Cost Side - The production profit of glass has weak recovery, and the supply is at a historically low level in the same period. The national floating glass production line has 222 in operation, with an operating rate of 75%, and the daily melting volume is 15.91 tons, both at historically low levels in the same period [2][21][23]. Fundamental - Demand Side - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of floating glass was 470.82 tons. The real - estate terminal demand is weak, the orders of glass deep - processing enterprises are at a historically low level in the same period, and the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic [2][26]. Fundamental - Inventory Side - The inventory of national floating glass enterprises is 63.247 million weight - boxes, an increase of 0.18% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [2][39]. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production and consumption of floating glass have fluctuated. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption is 53.1 million tons, with a decline rate of 1.15% [40]. Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy and environmental protection policy, the floating glass industry has seen capacity clearance, such as the "coal - to - gas" conversion in the Shahe area and industry cold - repair, resulting in production losses [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The glass supply has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, the downstream's phased replenishment has ended, and the glass factory's inventory has increased. The "anti - involution" market sentiment has subsided [3][4].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with sectors such as non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, national defense, beauty care, and banking showing strong gains, while sectors like comprehensive services, real estate, media, construction materials, and retail faced declines [1][1][1] - The market is currently in a consolidation phase around the 4000-point mark, with a long-term upward trend expected to continue [1][1][1] Sector Performance - Strong performance was noted in shipbuilding, precious metals, energy metals, and banking, while internet services, software development, cultural media, and electronic components lagged behind [1][1] - The market is in a critical phase for positioning for the upcoming year, with a likelihood of continued consolidation around the 4000-point level [1][1] Investor Sentiment - The stabilization of A-share indices is seen as a positive factor for short-term market confidence [1] - Despite geopolitical tensions leading to cautious funding behavior, the potential for increased market volatility remains [1] - Mid-term outlook remains optimistic due to sustained global tech investment enthusiasm, ongoing "anti-involution" policies, and increased retail investment [1][1]