Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent stable performance of the A-share market, highlighting that all 31 Shenwan first-level industries recorded positive returns from June 23 to July 18, indicating a structural bull market where holding any sector would yield profits [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The TMT sector, particularly telecommunications and computers, led the gains, while defense, military, and biomedicine also performed well in the growth sector [1] - High-dividend sectors, especially steel, showed strong performance [1] - The ChiNext Index outperformed the ChiNext Composite Index, indicating a potential structural bull market where certain sectors may not outperform the overall market [1] Group 2: Investor Psychology - Investors often experience anxiety about market uncertainty, fearing both missing out on gains and the risk of buying at high prices [2][3] - This anxiety reflects a growing awareness among investors, marking a step towards maturity in investment behavior [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The article suggests three levels of construction to address the conflicting emotions of fear and opportunity in investing [2] - The first level emphasizes psychological adjustment, advocating for acceptance of imperfection in market predictions and focusing on building a diversified investment portfolio [3][4] - The second level discusses the importance of asset allocation, recommending a mix of equity and bond investments to smooth out volatility and enhance returns [5][6] - The third level stresses the significance of position sizing and risk management, advising investors to maintain a portion of cash to manage potential market pullbacks effectively [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the management of multiple funds at Anxin Fund, particularly focusing on the departure of renowned fund manager Zhang Yifei, who is expected to transition to private equity after his departure [1][2]. Group 1: Zhang Yifei's Background and Career - Zhang Yifei has a master's degree in economics and has held various positions in finance, including roles at Morgan Steel (Shanghai) and the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [3]. - He joined Anxin Fund in September 2012, became a public fund manager in March 2014, and was promoted to Deputy General Manager in May 2023, but left this position less than a year later [3]. Group 2: Fund Management Performance - Zhang Yifei is recognized as a rare "fixed income +" fund manager who has successfully navigated multiple stock and bond cycles, gaining significant market attention, especially after the market turbulence in 2021 [5]. - Under his management, the funds he oversaw achieved notable performance, with a total management scale reaching 32.192 billion yuan [5]. - The Anxin Stable Value Fund, managed by Zhang Yifei, has consistently delivered positive returns every year since its inception, with a total return of 82.45% and an annualized return of 6.1%, while maintaining a maximum drawdown of only 7.2% [5]. Group 3: Transition of Fund Management - Following Zhang Yifei's departure, the management of the funds will be taken over by Li Jun and Huang Wanshu, who are also part of the Anxin Fund's mixed investment team [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current investment landscape, particularly focusing on the insurance sector's asset allocation strategies and the shift towards equity investments due to the underperformance of the bond market [3][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - There is a consensus in the industry that after a downturn in the bond market, investors are looking to equities for returns, although there are concerns about high valuations and the sustainability of upward momentum [3]. - Institutional investors have been net sellers of broad-based ETFs, with over 100 billion sold since mid-April, indicating a cautious approach despite a high risk appetite reflected in the net inflow into industry ETFs [3]. - The insurance sector faces challenges in absolute and relative performance assessments, necessitating a focus on alpha opportunities within the industry [4]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Challenges - Insurance companies are constrained by asset-liability matching requirements, which limits their ability to invest heavily in equities, necessitating a continued allocation to long-duration bonds [4]. - The overall investment process in insurance firms is evolving towards a more team-oriented approach to ensure consistent expectations and performance across different accounts [5][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The insurance sector is experiencing a gradual increase in equity allocation, driven by high costs of liabilities and a mismatch in the speed of asset allocation between fixed income and equities [5]. - The current low interest rate environment has led to a significant increase in insurance premium income, but the sustainability of this growth is questioned due to the potential for asset-liability mismatches [6][9]. Group 4: Research and Analysis - There is a need for cross-research among different asset classes within financial institutions to avoid siloed thinking and enhance overall market understanding [7][8]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the broader market context, particularly the implications of low interest rates on asset valuations and investment strategies [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the author's 16-year career in the finance industry, emphasizing the importance of mentorship, professional growth, and the aspiration to become a top fund manager in China [1][2][7]. Group 1: Career Development - The author began their career in 2006 at Pacific Securities, where they received early encouragement to become an excellent fund manager, which became a guiding principle [2]. - Transitioning to Haitong Securities, the author focused on quantitative analysis, contributing to the team's recognition in the market [3]. - The move to CITIC Securities was influenced by a mentor's recognition of the author's research methodology, reinforcing their career aspirations [4]. Group 2: Market Insights and Contributions - In 2018, during a challenging market environment due to US-China trade tensions, the author utilized a quantitative macro-timing system to provide accurate market predictions [4]. - The author played a significant role in providing market stabilization suggestions during the trade conflict, receiving recognition from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [4]. - In 2020, the author led a pivotal investment decision that significantly boosted the company's quarterly performance, marking a high point in their career [5]. Group 3: Future Aspirations - In 2023, the author set a goal to become the top fund manager in China, supported by the leadership's commitment to talent development [7]. - The author achieved the highest annual timing return in their career, reflecting the effectiveness of their research and investment strategies [8]. - The establishment of Shanghai Ruicheng Fund is aimed at fulfilling the author's long-term vision of creating a competitive investment product that leverages quantitative strategies and economic cycle theories [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article maintains a tactical asset allocation strategy, recommending an overweight in Hong Kong stocks, a standard allocation in gold and RMB, and an underweight in Japanese stocks and US Treasuries [1][2]. - Global market risk appetite has been recovering, driven by the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, marginal improvements in US-China relations, and the resilience of the US economy, leading to strong performance in risk assets like equities and commodities, while safe-haven assets like bonds and gold faced pressure [1][2]. - Trump's announcement of new tariffs may temporarily disrupt market risk appetite, increasing geopolitical uncertainty, but the overall market is expected to adjust back to the previous recovery trend after a brief impact [1][2]. Group 2 - The market is still in the process of repricing US Treasuries based on the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which involves significant fiscal spending increases and may lead to a substantial expansion of the federal deficit [2]. - The article expresses optimism towards Hong Kong stocks due to improving liquidity and risk appetite, while being cautious about Japanese stocks facing inflationary pressures [2]. - Despite short-term pressure on gold from risk appetite fluctuations, global macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties continue to support its allocation value [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent launch of the Itaú E Fund MSCI China A50 Interconnection ETF in Brazil marks a significant advancement in the ETF mutual access cooperation between China and Brazil, enhancing cross-border investment opportunities and promoting deeper capital market collaboration [2][4][6]. Group 1: ETF Launch and Features - The Itaú E Fund MSCI China A50 Interconnection ETF, listed on the Brazilian Securities and Futures Exchange, is designed to track the MSCI China A50 Interconnection Index, which focuses on the performance of 50 leading A-share companies in China [4][5]. - The ETF provides Brazilian investors with a convenient tool to access investment opportunities in the Chinese market, reflecting the ongoing efforts to enhance cross-border investment tools [4][6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Future Prospects - The launch of this ETF follows the introduction of the first product under the ETF mutual access framework in May, indicating a growing trend in cross-border ETF products between China and Brazil [5][6]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has been actively expanding ETF mutual access with various regions, including Japan, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, indicating a broader strategy to enhance global capital market connectivity [8][9]. - Analysts believe that the expanding mutual access framework will facilitate easier participation for domestic and foreign investors in both markets, thereby increasing the attractiveness of A-shares for long-term foreign capital allocation [9][10].

Group 1: Market Overview - Global market risk appetite is recovering, driven by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and improving US-China relations[6] - Recent announcements of new tariffs by Trump may temporarily impact market risk preferences, increasing geopolitical uncertainty[15] - The "Big and Beautiful" plan is expected to significantly increase the federal deficit, leading to upward pressure on US Treasury yields[16] Group 2: Tactical Asset Allocation - Tactical overweight on Hong Kong stocks due to improving market liquidity and risk appetite, with a recommended allocation of 4.81%[24] - Tactical underweight on US Treasuries, with a cautious stance due to fiscal pressures and economic dynamics, recommended allocation of 24.44%[24] - Tactical neutral position on gold, as geopolitical uncertainties still support its value despite recent pressure from improved risk appetite, recommended allocation of 6.20%[24] Group 3: Performance Metrics - The tactical asset allocation portfolio achieved a weekly return of 0.37%, with a cumulative excess return of 2.80% relative to the benchmark[30] - Year-to-date performance of major indices shows the Shanghai Composite Index up 4.73%, while the Hang Seng Index has increased by 20.34%[12] - The portfolio's absolute return stands at 7.93% year-to-date, indicating strong performance against the benchmark[30]

Group 1 - The report maintains a tactical asset allocation view, recommending an overweight in Hong Kong stocks, a neutral position in gold and RMB, and an underweight in Japanese stocks and US Treasuries [1][13][15] - Global market risk appetite has been recovering, driven by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, marginal improvements in US-China relations, and resilient macroeconomic conditions in the US [1][11][12] - The announcement of new tariffs by Trump may temporarily impact market risk appetite, but the overall market is expected to adjust back to the previous recovery trend after a brief shock [1][11][12] Group 2 - The "Big and Beautiful" plan is expected to significantly increase federal fiscal deficits, which may lead to upward pressure on US Treasury yields [1][12] - The report expresses optimism about Hong Kong stocks due to improving liquidity and risk appetite, while being cautious about Japanese stocks facing inflationary pressures [1][13][14] - The report highlights the potential for gold to serve as a hedge against risks, despite short-term pressure from improved market risk appetite [1][14][15] Group 3 - The tactical asset allocation strategy includes a focus on sectors with strong growth potential, particularly in technology and emerging industries within Hong Kong [1][14] - The report indicates that the US economy's resilience may support a higher yield environment for US Treasuries, with a cautious outlook on their performance [1][13][14] - The report anticipates that the RMB will remain stable due to the strong growth momentum of the Chinese economy compared to other major economies [1][15]

Group 1 - The ETF market has seen significant growth in 2023, with a total scale reaching 4.38 trillion yuan as of July 11, representing a 17.6% increase from the end of last year [1][2] - Bond ETFs have led this expansion with a nearly 1.3 times year-to-date growth, while gold ETFs have doubled in size, and cross-border ETFs focusing on technology and innovative pharmaceuticals have attracted over 73.6 billion yuan [1][2][3] - In contrast, stock ETFs have experienced net outflows, totaling 25.05 billion yuan year-to-date, with the CSI A500 index being particularly affected, seeing a net outflow of 78.06 billion yuan [6][7] Group 2 - The bond ETF market has accelerated due to the rise of passive investment and policy benefits, with net inflows of 192.31 billion yuan this year, making it the most attractive product category [2][3] - Gold ETFs have also seen substantial inflows, with 17 commodity ETFs reaching a total scale of 159.78 billion yuan, marking a 111.15% increase from last year [3] - Cross-border ETFs have gained popularity, particularly in the technology and innovative pharmaceutical sectors, with net inflows exceeding 67.7 billion yuan this year [4] Group 3 - The stock market has shown signs of recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 3,500-point mark, indicating increased investor risk appetite [1][8] - Analysts suggest that the current market environment reflects a non-typical recovery phase, reminiscent of trends seen between 2013 and 2015, with potential for further upward movement if certain economic factors align [7][8] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors that have not yet surpassed previous highs, such as cyclical industries and non-bank financials, which may offer better value [8]

Group 1 - The report highlights a strong breakout in A-shares, with major indices rising, particularly the ChiNext Index which increased by 2.36%, and the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above 3500 points, driven by policy support and improved manufacturing expectations [4][10] - The report notes a technical adjustment in the bond market, with 30-year and 10-year government bonds declining by 0.49% and 0.26% respectively, attributed to the risk appetite shift towards equities and tightening liquidity post-quarter-end [4][10] - The report indicates that the U.S. stock market is experiencing a high-level correction, with major indices declining under the pressure of the Federal Reserve's "higher for longer" interest rate expectations, while the dollar rebounded by 0.93% this week [4][10] Group 2 - The report suggests a diversified asset allocation strategy, recommending a focus on the bond market due to supportive liquidity and optimistic sentiment, while also monitoring the scale of MLF renewals and fiscal-monetary policy coordination [5] - For overseas equities, the report advises overweighting non-U.S. markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, to capitalize on structural opportunities amid a weakening dollar and resilient fundamentals [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring commodity prices, which are rebounding due to policy stimulus and cost support, while also noting that the effectiveness of future measures needs to be tracked [4][5] Group 3 - The report identifies that the A-share market is currently in a small-cap, high-growth style cycle, with liquidity supporting a continued influx of funds into smaller stocks, despite a negative return of -8.54% for the market capitalization factor year-to-date [34] - The report highlights that the current valuation levels of A-shares are approaching historical averages, with the price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 800 at the 50th percentile of the rolling three-year range, reflecting a cautiously optimistic market sentiment [67] - The report notes that while earnings expectations have slightly improved, they remain below historical averages, indicating ongoing concerns about the profitability of A-share listed companies, with a projected rolling one-year earnings growth rate of 10.4% [67]