Group 1: Q3 Refinancing Meeting Insights - The Q3 refinancing meeting maintained the long-term bond issuance pace while moderately increasing short-term bond issuance and long-term bond repurchases[7] - The Treasury Department announced a doubling of the repurchase frequency for 10-20 year and 20-30 year bonds, increasing the quarterly repurchase limit from $8 billion to $16 billion[10] - The estimated financing needs for the next three years show little change, with a total decrease of $14 billion compared to April estimates[18] Group 2: Supply Shock and Interest Rate Outlook - The risk of a supply shock in U.S. Treasury bonds is considered low for the remainder of 2023, with upward pressure on bond yields significantly reduced[20] - Short-term interest rate pressures are manageable, with the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield rising approximately 30 basis points from March to October 2023[20] - Long-term bond issuance increases have pushed long-term bond yields and term premiums higher, with yields rising over 130 basis points from June to October 2023[23] Group 3: Economic Data and Rate Expectations - The Federal Reserve's decisions will increasingly depend on economic data, with potential scenarios for CPI and employment data influencing interest rate expectations[32] - The Jackson Hole meeting in August is highlighted as a critical time for potential interest rate guidance, with expectations of a 50 basis point cut if inflation remains within the 2.8-3.0% range[32]

Core Viewpoint - The July non-farm employment data shows a significant downward revision in previous months, indicating an overestimation of employment levels, particularly in government sectors. The overall labor market is cooling down, with rising unemployment rates and declining labor participation rates [2][3][5]. Employment Data Revision - The July non-farm employment recorded an increase of 73,000 jobs, but previous months' data were heavily revised downwards. June's employment was adjusted from 147,000 to 14,000, and May's from 144,000 to 19,000, totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs [3][2]. Unemployment Rate Trends - The unemployment rate rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, while the U6 unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 7.9%. This indicates a broad cooling of the job market, with a decrease in labor participation rate to 62.2%, the lowest since the beginning of 2023 [5][6]. Sector-Specific Employment Changes - Job growth in July was concentrated in the education and healthcare sectors, with retail, education, and financial activities seeing the most significant increases. However, government employment decreased by 10,000 jobs, marking the third negative month this year, with substantial downward revisions in previous months [6][2]. Labor Market Supply and Demand - As of June, job vacancies in the U.S. fell to 7.44 million, with a vacancy rate of 4.4%. The labor supply-demand gap recorded 422,000, indicating a return to pre-pandemic levels and suggesting a balance in the labor market [8]. Wage Growth Trends - Average hourly earnings in July increased by 0.3% month-over-month, with a year-over-year growth of 3.9%. However, long-term trends show a slowdown in wage growth since November 2024 [9][10]. Real Wage Growth - The real wage growth, adjusted for inflation, showed a year-over-year increase of 1% in June, down by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. This indicates stable wage income growth [10]. Sectoral Wage Changes - In July, the highest year-over-year wage growth was observed in the retail and business services sectors, at 5.2% and 5.1%, respectively. Conversely, the slowest growth was in public utilities and construction, with declines of approximately 0.7 and 0.2 percentage points [12]. Interest Rate Expectations - Following the release of weak employment data, expectations for interest rate cuts in September have increased, with the probability rising from 40% to 80%. The anticipated number of rate cuts for the year has also increased from 1.3 to 2.2 [16].

不降息！这次"表稳里动"的美联储议息会议，似乎让资产价格"受惊"了。 会后，国际黄金价格跌至3327美元/盎司，美元指数升至99.82，10年期美债收益率升至4.37%，2年期美债收益率飙升至3.93%，美股则涨跌不一。 当地时间7月30日，美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）维持联邦基金目标利率在4.25%—4.50%，连续五次"按兵不动"。但市场关注的焦点并非降不降 息，而是此次会议及其声明是否释放出"政策转折"的前兆信号。 答案并不简单。表面上，美联储仍然坚持"数据驱动"立场，强调美国通胀尚未令人信服地回落，降息条件尚不成熟。但此次决议中罕见地出现了两票反对意 见（理事鲍曼和沃勒主张立即降息25个基点）。这或预示着美联储内部政策共识出现裂缝，未来路径将更加灵活、多变且具有争议性。 彭博经济研究院首席美国经济学家AnnaWong指出，自1993年以来，美联储首次出现两位理事对政策决议持不同意见，凸显内部矛盾加剧。或因妥协使然， 本次政策声明比预期更显鸽派，特别提及上半年经济增长放缓。她分析，6月核心个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数和7月非农数据，可能进一步激化FOMC的 分歧。 这并非简单的"鹰"与"鸽"之 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below expectations, leading to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [11][12] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, matching expectations, while year-on-year wage growth increased from a revised 3.8% to 3.9% [11] - The Nasdaq fell over 2%, marking the largest decline for the S&P 500 since May, with small-cap stocks hit hardest [1] - The VIX index surpassed 20, indicating rising fear in the market, while gold prices surged by 2% amid geopolitical tensions [1] Key Economic Indicators - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for July dropped to 48, indicating the fastest contraction in nine months, with the employment index hitting a five-year low [2][12] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a slowdown, with new orders declining for six consecutive months [12] Company News - Major tech companies are beginning to see profitability from AI investments, with significant revenue growth reported by Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta, collectively increasing their market value by over $350 billion [14] - Amazon faced scrutiny regarding its position in the AI race, despite exceeding earnings expectations, as concerns about its cloud business growth persist [23] - The combined capital expenditure for AI infrastructure by major tech firms is projected to approach $400 billion, surpassing the total defense spending of the EU last year [15] Regulatory and Policy Developments - The People's Bank of China established a new macro-prudential and financial stability committee, emphasizing the need for a moderately loose monetary policy [10] - The U.S. government announced a new tariff structure, with rates varying based on trade relationships, impacting various sectors [19][21] Market Reactions - Following the release of disappointing employment data, hedge funds have been selling U.S. stocks for four consecutive weeks, particularly in the tech, media, and telecom sectors [20] - The stock prices of companies like Meituan, Ele.me, and JD.com surged after a joint commitment to resist harmful competition practices [17]

Market Overview - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below expectations, leading to a sharp rise in interest rate cut expectations [10][12] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, matching expectations, while the year-on-year wage growth increased from a revised 3.8% to 3.9% [10] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for July fell to 48, indicating the fastest contraction in nine months, with the employment index hitting a five-year low [11] - The S&P 500 index dropped 1.60%, marking a cumulative decline of 2.36% for the week, while the Nasdaq fell over 2% [6] Company News - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta reported significant revenue growth, indicating that AI is beginning to generate profits, with their combined market value increasing by over $350 billion [14] - Amazon faced scrutiny regarding its position in the AI race, despite exceeding earnings expectations, as concerns about its cloud service growth persisted [22] - Tesla's July delivery numbers showed a 229% year-on-year increase for Xpeng, while NIO's deliveries were down 40% year-on-year [16] - The Chinese government announced the establishment of a macro-prudential and financial stability committee to maintain liquidity and support credit growth [9] Economic Policies - The U.S. government announced a new tariff structure, with rates varying based on trade relationships, impacting countries like Canada and India [19] - The Chinese central bank emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth and stabilize the financial system [9] - The National Development and Reform Commission in China plans to implement measures to combat "involution" in competition and promote rational pricing [15]

Group 1 - Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on multiple countries, causing significant market reactions including a drop in US stock indices and a surge in gold prices [2] - US non-farm payroll data for July showed only 73,000 jobs added, far below expectations, leading to increased speculation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [2] - Wahaha's inheritance dispute saw Zong Fuli lose the first round in Hong Kong, with implications for her control over the company depending on a pending court decision in Hangzhou [2] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China announced a continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing support for the real economy and financial risk prevention [3] - Hong Kong's stablecoin licensing framework has been established, with major banks likely to apply for licenses, indicating a growing interest in the stablecoin market [3] - OPEC+ is expected to approve a new production increase plan, potentially adding 548,000 barrels per day, amid concerns over current oil prices [3] Group 3 - WuXi AppTec raised its share buyback price limit from 90.72 yuan to 114.15 yuan per share, leading to a significant rally in the innovative drug sector [4] - The stock ETF market in China experienced a net outflow of over 10 billion yuan, while Hong Kong stocks attracted inflows, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [5] - American Bitcoin Corp, backed by the Trump family, is set to go public through a reverse merger, having completed a $220 million private placement [5]

Group 1 - President Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs on imports from Canada, Brazil, India, and Taiwan just hours before the tariff deadline, despite ongoing negotiations for more favorable agreements [1] - Employment growth has sharply declined over the past three months, with an increase of only 73,000 jobs in July and a downward revision of nearly 260,000 jobs in the previous two months, resulting in an average increase of only 35,000 jobs over the last three months, the worst level since the pandemic began [1] - The report has raised expectations for a rate cut in September to 80.0% [1] Group 2 - President Trump stated that if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell continues to refuse to lower interest rates, the Federal Reserve Board should take control [1] - Bond prices have continued to rise as investors bet on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to an increase in gold prices [1]

Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Outlook - China's fiscal policy has maintained a proactive stance in the first half of the year, with increased spending intensity and optimized expenditure structure, indicating significant operational space for the second half [2][3] - Key areas of focus for fiscal support include urban renewal, investment in human capital, and industrial upgrades, reflecting a systematic and forward-looking approach [2][3] - The broad fiscal revenue and expenditure gap has increased by at least 1.6 trillion yuan year-on-year, highlighting the critical role of fiscal policy in stabilizing consumption, investment, and the financial system [3] Group 2: Consumer Market and Policy Incentives - The introduction of policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods is expected to benefit the lower-tier markets and the silver economy, which are seen as undervalued opportunities [4][5] - The "old for new" policy is anticipated to enhance consumer upgrading in lower-tier markets, with significant potential for the home appliance market due to the aging of previous policies [5] - The aging population is expected to drive demand in healthcare, elderly services, and related industries, creating investment opportunities in medical devices, innovative drugs, and elder care services [6] Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The "anti-involution" policy is reshaping the industrial landscape by promoting the exit of inefficient capacity, with leading companies expected to benefit from improved profitability due to their competitive advantages [7] - The focus on "anti-involution" is not merely about capacity reduction but aims at optimizing market mechanisms for high-quality industrial development [7] - The investment logic for core assets in the A50 index is shifting from "reassessing resilience" to "reassessing growth," indicating a potential revaluation of these assets as the real estate cycle stabilizes [9] Group 4: Market Opportunities and Investment Strategies - The current market strategy involves a dual approach of "dividend assets as a shield" and "new tracks as a spear," with dividend assets providing stability amid uncertainty and new sectors driving structural opportunities [8] - The expectation of synchronized interest rate cuts in China and the U.S. is likely to lower financing costs for the real economy and attract foreign investment into the A-share technology growth sector [10] - The anticipated decline in financing costs may stimulate demand in the real estate sector and consumer goods, enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese exports [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips in August and maintaining this strategy in the medium to long term [6][7] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, copper prices are under pressure due to the implementation of copper tariffs (excluding electrolytic copper) and the decline in the expectation of a September interest rate cut. However, with the expectation of two interest rate cuts this year and the tight supply of copper mines throughout the year, copper prices are supported. In the long run, as tariffs ease and the market expects interest rate cuts in Q3, liquidity will gradually ease the upper - limit pressure on metals, and the tight supply of copper mines will also support copper prices [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook (PART 01) - In August, maintain the strategy of buying on dips. The exclusion of electrolytic copper from the 50% copper tariff on August 1 may lead to the outflow of US electrolytic copper and accelerate the supply - demand balance in non - US regions. The Fed's inaction in July, combined with strong US economic and employment data and the risk of rising inflation, has further reduced the expectation of a September interest rate cut, which suppresses copper prices. In the medium to long term, as tariffs ease and the market expects interest rate cuts in Q3, there are still expectations of two interest rate cuts this year, which will gradually ease the upper - limit pressure on metals. The tight supply of copper mines throughout the year also supports copper prices. Although copper prices are currently in short - term adjustment with a support level of 77,000, the medium - to - long - term strategy of buying on dips is maintained [6][7] 2. Market Review (PART 02) - In July, copper prices were generally in a high - level consolidation. From late June to early July, due to the expectation that the "232" policy might be implemented in September or October, the shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions intensified, and copper prices rose. On July 3, Shanghai copper reached 80,990 yuan/ton, equivalent to the integer mark of 10,000 US dollars/ton for London copper. On July 8, the US announced a 50% tariff on copper, and copper prices fell from the high. In late July, the "anti - involution" trend in multiple industries and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station project boosted market sentiment, and copper prices reached 80,000 yuan/ton again. However, the "anti - involution" had limited impact on the non - ferrous supply, and the downstream acceptance of high prices was poor. After the sentiment subsided, copper prices returned to the fundamentals [8][9] 3. Macroeconomic Factors (PART 03) - **Tariff Policy**: The Sino - US tariff extension for 90 days has temporarily reduced tariff disturbances. The US announced a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivative products from August 1, excluding copper input materials and copper scrap. This led to a sharp decline in New York copper futures and related ETFs. Although electrolytic copper is excluded from the tariff, there is still long - term uncertainty as the US may consider imposing tariffs on electrolytic copper from 2027 [13][17] - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% in July, which was in line with market expectations. Two Fed governors voted against maintaining the interest rate, supporting a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in July. The strong US economic and employment data and the risk of rising inflation have reduced the expectation of a September interest rate cut [20][22] - **Domestic Economy**: China's Q2 GDP annual rate was 5.2%, and the first - half GDP increased by 5.3% year - on - year. Fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% year - on - year in the first half of the year, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. The Politburo meeting in July emphasized the need for macro - policies to continue to be effective in the second half of the year, release domestic demand potential, and promote high - level opening - up. The "anti - involution" policy and the acceleration of the implementation of growth - stabilizing policies may support industrial product prices [27] - **Policy Impact on Supply and Demand**: From the supply side, policies will guide the copper smelting industry to control production capacity, which is expected to restore TC/RC processing fees and ease the contradiction between mining and smelting. From the demand side, the "anti - involution" series of policies focus on promoting stable growth in the manufacturing industry, which will boost the downstream demand for copper. In the long run, the supply - demand mismatch may further push up the copper price center [29] 4. Fundamental Factors (PART 04) - **Supply Side** - **Copper Ore Import**: In June, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.3497 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% and a year - on - year increase of 1.77%. The supplies from Chile and Peru, the top two suppliers, continued to decline, with Peru's supply dropping by about 15%. The long - term processing fees negotiated between domestic smelters and overseas mines this year are zero, and the spot processing fees in the domestic market remain low, indicating that the tight supply of copper mines is difficult to ease in the short term [30] - **Copper Ore Processing Fees**: As of the week of July 25, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 42.98 dollars/dry ton, up 0.22 dollars/dry ton from the previous week. The spot market for copper concentrates is less active, and processing fees are "stable with a slight correction" [34] - **Refined Copper Inventory**: Affected by the "232" tariff policy, the rush to import copper since April has led to a shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions. However, as the policy expectation is fulfilled, LME copper inventory has increased. As of July 25, LME copper inventory reached 128,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons from the end of June. COMEX copper inventory is also increasing [38] - **Electrolytic Copper Production**: In the first half of 2025, China's electrolytic copper production reached a new high. From January to June, the cumulative production was 6.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 674,700 tons or 11.40%. The estimated production in July was 1.1504 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. Although smelting is in a loss stage, the willingness to cut production actively is not strong [42] - **Scrap Copper Import**: In June, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% and a year - on - year increase of 8.49%. The supply from Thailand, the new largest scrap copper supplier, continued to increase, while the supply from the US dropped significantly due to tariff policies. However, due to the adjustment of the smelting raw material structure, domestic smelters' demand for scrap copper has increased, and the increased supply from other countries has made up for the shortfall [45] - **Demand Side** - **Power Sector**: As of the end of June, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18%. The solar power installed capacity was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in June decreased significantly after the "5.31 rush - to - install" period. In 2025, the investment in the national power grid is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time. From January to June, the cumulative investment in the power grid was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. The power supply project investment also increased significantly. However, affected by the off - season and high copper prices, the wire and cable operating rate in June dropped to 72.41% [49] - **Real Estate Sector**: In the first half of 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. The new construction area, completion area, and other indicators all declined. Although real estate sales are basically stable and inventories are decreasing, the demand for copper in the real estate sector remains weak [53] - **Automobile Sector**: From January to June, automobile production and sales increased by 12.5% and 11.4% year - on - year respectively. New energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year - on - year respectively. The export of automobiles and new energy vehicles also increased significantly. With the implementation of relevant policies and the rich supply of new products, the increase in automobile production will drive copper consumption [57] - **Home Appliance Sector**: In June 2025, the national air - conditioner production was 28.383 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The cumulative production from January to June was 163.296 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. In August, the total production plan for air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 26.97 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. Although the production plan for air - conditioners in August still decreased year - on - year, the decline was expected to narrow compared with the previous month [58]

机构：前端收益率大幅回落 投资者重新拥抱降息预期 金十数据8月1日讯，机构分析称，本周非农就业数据公布之际，美国国债市场刚刚经历了一轮重新定 价：此前投资者已基本排除降息的可能，并对美联储主席鲍威尔周三"鹰派"言论反应强烈。然而，在就 业数据发布后，市场迅速转向，前端收益率大幅回落，反映出投资者重新拥抱降息预期，并将未来12个 月的降息幅度预期从就业数据前的不到100个基点提高至约114个基点。9月降息的概率已回升至64%， 而此前不足40%。不过，要在下次美联储会议上完全定价一次降息，市场预计仍将面临阻力。接下来， 7月和8月的通胀数据将对美联储决策以及债市走向具有更关键的影响。 ...