Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of China's import and export data for September 2025, highlighting the resilience of the trade despite ongoing Sino-U.S. trade tensions [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Export and Import Growth**: In September 2025, China's exports and imports grew by 8.3% and 7.4% year-on-year, respectively, exceeding market expectations [1][2][4]. - **Impact of U.S. Trade Relations**: Exports to the U.S. fell by 27%, while imports from the U.S. decreased by 16.1%, indicating a significant impact from ongoing trade disputes [1][2][4]. - **Shift in Trade Partners**: The share of exports to the U.S. dropped from nearly 20% before the trade war to about 10% in September 2025, with ASEAN, Africa, Latin America, Russia, India, and Brazil filling the gap [1][2][3]. - **Product Structure Changes**: The export structure has improved, with machinery and high-tech products growing at 12.6% and 11.5%, respectively. Vehicles, aircraft, and transportation equipment saw a robust growth of 22.6%, becoming a key source of export resilience [1][2][3][4]. - **Import Dynamics**: Imports from developed regions like the EU, Japan, and South Korea increased, while imports from the U.S. fell to below 5% of total imports. The share of imports from Latin America, Russia, ASEAN, Brazil, and Africa has risen [1][6][7]. Additional Important Insights - **Countermeasures Against U.S. Tariffs**: China has adopted reciprocal measures in response to U.S. tariffs, maintaining strong trade resilience despite the tensions. High-tech and high-value-added products are crucial for supporting exports [2][4][9]. - **Economic Trends Reflected in Trade Data**: The strong performance in September indicates a long-term competitive advantage for China, particularly in vehicle-related products, which now account for nearly 10% of total exports. The rapid growth of precious metals imports is linked to recent market trends and potential infrastructure demands [9][10]. - **Diverse Product Performance**: The data shows a varied performance across different product categories, with machinery and electronic equipment leading exports at 35.3%, followed by mineral products at 25.7%. Precious metals and related products have also seen significant growth [10][11]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the resilience of China's trade amidst external pressures and the evolving dynamics of its import and export structures.

1. Report Information - **Report Title**: Non - ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - **Date**: October 17, 2025 [2] - **Researcher**: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] 2. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 3. Core Views - Copper is expected to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern due to strong fundamentals and macro uncertainties [8]. - Lithium carbonate is predicted to fluctuate around 75,000 yuan, with short - term supply - demand balance and continued inventory reduction, but facing increasing macro risks [25]. - Aluminum is likely to remain high - level volatile, affected by macro emotions and the contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality, with the import window closed [41][45]. - Nickel will continue to move in a range - bound pattern, with the fundamental surplus of primary nickel unchanged and the price under pressure, supported at the 120,000 - yuan level [74][79]. - Zinc will operate with a weak and volatile trend, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern, with overseas low - inventory providing support and domestic weak fundamentals restricting the rebound [104][105]. 4. Summary by Metal Copper 4.1.1 Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai copper traded between 82,300 and 86,830 yuan, with total positions decreasing by about 5.5% to 546,000 lots. The price rebounded after hitting the bottom, affected by Sino - US economic and trade frictions and market sentiment [7]. - LME copper traded between 10,463 and 10,864.5 US dollars. As of October 10, the net long positions of funds increased by about 5% to 59,179 lots [7]. 4.1.2 Operation Suggestion - Copper prices will continue to be supported by fundamentals but face increasing macro uncertainties, and are expected to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern next week [8]. 4.1.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Copper ore processing fees are in a deeper inversion. The inventory of copper concentrates at seven ports increased, and the import of copper concentrates and its ores in August 2025 increased. The production of electrolytic copper in September decreased significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline in October [11][13]. - **Demand**: The weekly开工 rate of scrap copper rods and refined copper rods increased. The开工 rate of wire and cable and enameled wire also rose, but the new orders of enameled wire have not fully recovered [15][17]. - **Spot**: Domestic copper inventories increased by 1.84 to 275,000 tons, and the inventory in bonded areas increased by 0.72 to 97,700 tons. LME + COMEX inventories increased by 2,701 tons to 450,000 tons [18]. Lithium Carbonate 4.2.1 Market Review - The futures price of lithium carbonate decreased, with the main contract trading between 71,800 and 76,840 yuan, and total positions increasing by 10.7% to 755,000 lots. The spot price of lithium carbonate moved up, and the market trading activity was flat [24]. 4.2.2 Operation Suggestion - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to grow, and the demand shows obvious peak - season characteristics. The fundamentals support lithium carbonate, but considering the increasing macro risks, the main contract is expected to fluctuate around 75,000 yuan [25]. 4.2.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate reached a new high of 21,066 tons, and the production from various raw material sources increased. The cost of producing lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene and lithium mica increased [25][30]. - **Demand**: The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium cobalt oxide increased. The price of battery cells also moved up, and the demand in the battery field is growing [31][34]. - **Spot**: The difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is at a low level, and the inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,143 tons to 132,658 tons [35][36]. Aluminum 4.3.1 Market Review - Aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded, maintaining a high - level volatile pattern, mainly affected by macro emotions. The futures price of alumina followed the sector down, and the price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. The inventory in the peak season continued to decline [41]. 4.3.2 Operation Suggestion - Wait for the callback to buy, and pay attention to controlling risks. The price of domestic bauxite is expected to remain stable, the price of alumina is under pressure, and the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the high - level volatility of Shanghai aluminum [45]. 4.3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Bauxite**: The domestic bauxite market is stable, with supply being temporarily tight in some areas. The price of imported bauxite continues to decline [46][47]. - **Alumina**: The price of alumina continues to fall, with an oversupply situation. The domestic operating rate decreased slightly, and the import window is open [49][51]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of the smelting industry remains at a high level. The cost decreased slightly this week, and the profit increased slightly [57]. - **Export**: In August 2025, the export of aluminum profiles increased slightly month - on - month, and the import window of aluminum ingots remained closed [64][65]. - **Processing**: The operating rate of downstream processing leading enterprises remained flat this week, showing a general performance in the peak season [66]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased slightly [71]. Nickel 4.4.1 Market Review - Shanghai nickel continued to move in a low - level volatile pattern, affected by macro factors. The futures market maintained a contango structure, and the import window remained closed [74]. 4.4.2 Operation Suggestion - Shanghai nickel will continue to move in a range - bound pattern, with the fundamental surplus of primary nickel unchanged. Pay attention to overseas market changes and policy disturbances in Indonesia [79]. 4.4.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Nickel Ore**: The price of Philippine nickel ore remained stable, and the price of Indonesian pyrometallurgical nickel ore increased [80]. - **Nickel Iron**: In September, the production of Indonesian nickel iron increased year - on - year, and the production of domestic nickel iron decreased. The import of nickel iron increased [86][89]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The production capacity of electrowinning nickel is rapidly expanding. In September, the production of refined nickel increased slightly, and the downstream demand was less than expected [91][92]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of nickel salts continued to rise this week. In September, the production of nickel sulfate increased month - on - month, and it is expected to continue to increase slightly in October [95][97]. - **Stainless Steel**: The inventory of stainless steel increased this week, and the market demand is weak, with the futures price falling [101]. Zinc 4.5.1 Market Review - The US dollar index continued to weaken, and LME zinc had strong short - term bottom support. Shanghai zinc gave back the post - holiday gains, and the import window has been deeply closed since July [104]. 4.5.2 Operation Suggestion - The zinc market shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern, and is expected to operate with a weak and volatile trend in the short term. Pay attention to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage and the actual export volume [105]. 4.5.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The processing fee of domestic zinc ore has peaked and declined. The production of refined zinc in October is expected to increase month - on - month, and the import window remains closed while the export window is approaching to open [115][116]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of galvanized, die - cast zinc alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises increased to some extent, but the terminal demand is still weak [117][118]. - **Spot**: Domestic zinc inventories decreased by 0.04 to 162,700 tons, and LME zinc inventories decreased to less than 40,000 tons [119].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **China-U.S. trade relations** and the **impact of tariffs and restrictions** on both countries' economies and industries, particularly in the **technology and high-tech sectors**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Dynamic Adjustment in China-U.S. Relations** The China-U.S. relationship is currently in a phase of strategic standoff, characterized by dynamic adjustments and short-term fluctuations due to changes in relative power and ongoing economic tensions [1][2][3] 2. **Recent Trade Tensions** Recent trade tensions have manifested through U.S. measures such as the 301 investigation, expanded chip industry restrictions, and increased export controls targeting Chinese technology development. In response, China has retaliated with measures against specific industries and companies [5][6] 3. **Technological and Military Developments** China's recent technological breakthroughs and military displays have heightened U.S. concerns, prompting a potential escalation in U.S. restrictions to maintain its technological and financial dominance [6][11] 4. **Differences in Decision-Making Processes** The Trump administration's decision-making process lacks systematic coordination, relying heavily on personal decisions, which contrasts with China's more structured approach. This has led to misunderstandings and increased tensions between the two nations [7][10] 5. **Potential U.S. Measures Against China** The U.S. may implement further measures to pressure China, including restrictions on capital flows, halting student visa issuance, and limiting investments in high-tech sectors. These actions could significantly impact trade relations [12][22] 6. **Negotiation Signals** Despite ongoing pressures, the U.S. has indicated a willingness to negotiate, aiming to avoid a complete decoupling that could harm both economies. There is potential for agreements to be reached in upcoming meetings [13][20] 7. **Future of Trade Relations** The future of China-U.S. trade relations remains uncertain, with potential for escalation in conflicts but also opportunities for resolution through negotiations. Key upcoming events may influence the trajectory of these relations [18][19] 8. **Core Demands from Both Sides** - **China's Main Demand**: Reduction of unfair tariffs imposed by the U.S., which are significantly higher than those on other countries [21] - **U.S.'s Main Demand**: Reduction of the trade deficit with China and gradual decoupling, particularly in high-tech sectors [22] Other Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Impact of Domestic Politics** The upcoming midterm elections in the U.S. are unlikely to significantly influence China-U.S. relations, as domestic issues are expected to take precedence over foreign policy concerns [23] 2. **Potential for Future Cooperation** Despite tensions, there remains a possibility for cooperation in critical areas such as chip manufacturing and AI, which are vital for both economies [13][20] 3. **TikTok Negotiations** The resolution of the TikTok issue is anticipated to be addressed in future negotiations, with significant technical and regulatory hurdles remaining [16]

10月14日，市场全天震荡调整，创业板指、科创50指数盘中双双跌超4%。沪深两市成 交额2.58万亿，较上一个交易日放量2215亿。截至收盘，沪指跌0.62%，深成指跌 2.54%，创业板指跌3.99%。 普通K线 ▼ 龙头回溯 九转 热点掘金 加自选 均 0 0 日 ~ ~ (+) 日 (+) 日 (+) 日 (+) 日 (+ (0) 918 1895,332 中证2000年工程 2 54.25% 2.59亿 总笔数 委员 1828 683万 均等量 7 21 最新 1831.943 开盘 20.056 最高 3KB -1.08%最低 1739 2.50% 均价 振幅 5611800 量比 机号 当日进出统计: 1650 36 2917. -9361/ TT 商务部:对韩华海洋株式会社5家美国 = 177 2025-10-14 12:05 星期二 财联社 中美经贸磋商 中方决定将韩华海洋株式会社5家美国相关子公司列入反制清单,并采 织、个人与其进行有关交易、合作等活动。 韩华海洋的国防装备制造业务聚焦于高端海军装备的研发、建造与服务，涵盖潜艇 无人系统及国际防务合作等多个领域。以下是其核心业务的详细解析： ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the US and China, particularly highlighting the significant increase in tariffs imposed by the US on Chinese goods, which reached as high as 145% [3][5][9] - China's response to US tariffs has included measures such as export controls on rare earth materials, which are crucial for high-tech industries, thereby impacting US companies heavily reliant on these materials [7][9] - The article notes that despite the US's attempts to negotiate and reach agreements, the trade relationship remains fraught with challenges, and recent actions from both sides have led to renewed tensions [5][11] Group 2 - The economic implications of the trade war are severe, with warnings from Moody's about potential recessions in 22 US states, affecting a significant portion of the population and leading to increased debt burdens on middle and low-income families [11][13] - The US government's debt is highlighted as a critical issue, with projections indicating a deficit of $1.7 trillion for the fiscal year 2025, raising concerns about the sustainability of US fiscal policy and the potential for a debt crisis [13] - The article emphasizes the interconnectedness of the US and Chinese economies, suggesting that the trade relationship's deterioration could have far-reaching consequences for the global economy [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. plans to impose an additional 100% tariff on all goods imported from China starting November 1, 2025, and implement export controls on "all critical software," leading to a decline in global risk assets and increased market volatility [1][2]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3900 points, and the bond market saw a general decline in interest rates, with 30-year and 10-year government bonds dropping by 5.01 and 2.54 basis points, respectively [1]. - On October 10, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices dropped by 3.56% and 2.71%, while international spot gold rose by 1.05%, surpassing $4000 per ounce [1]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts believe that the recent escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions is primarily due to unreasonable sanctions on China's shipbuilding industry, with the market expected to adopt a cautious approach [1][2]. - Compared to the previous "reciprocal tariff" policy in April, the current market reaction is more measured, as investors have gained experience and are more prepared for potential outcomes [2][3]. A-Share Market Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, several brokerages maintain a positive long-term outlook for the A-share market, citing factors such as the resilience of Chinese enterprises, improving company quality, increasing dividends and buybacks, and sustained capital inflows [4]. - The A-share market is expected to remain focused on domestic factors, with analysts noting that the current market environment is stronger than in April [3][4]. Bond Market Impact - The impact of the current tariff escalation on the bond market is expected to be less severe than in April, with analysts predicting that the 10-year government bond yield will fluctuate between 1.7% and 1.75% [5][6]. - The market's learning effect from previous tariff announcements has led to a more rational response, with current sentiment favoring equities over bonds, limiting the extent of yield declines [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The bond market may see a downward trend in the fourth quarter, but a cautious and optimistic attitude is recommended. The market has a foundation for a slow decline, with more rational pricing and stable allocation demand. The recent tariff shock is a "one - time" pricing behavior, and if the tariff policy fluctuates, long - duration assets may face callback risks. It's advisable to track the arrangement of the Sino - US summit to judge the implementation possibility of the tariff policy [2][90]. - The tariff and technology control may have limited impact on the domestic capital market. The potential "cancellation" or "reduction" of tariffs makes it difficult to immediately price the long - term impact on the fundamentals. The market is unlikely to repeat the extreme situation in April [4]. - In terms of investment strategy, the portfolio duration should be set at a medium - to - long level. High - quality coupon assets are recommended as the bottom - position, and opportunities in 2 - year AA -/AA - grade credit bonds and 10 - year local bonds can be explored. For trading, medium - duration varieties such as secondary perpetual bonds with large previous declines can be focused on [2][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Matters - In October, the central bank did not conduct treasury bond trading operations [7]. - On October 9, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3900 points for the first time in 10 years, which may signal a slow - bull market in the equity market and put upward pressure on the bond market [8]. - The fourth - quarter treasury bond issuance plan was announced. Treasury bond issuance, especially ultra - long - term bonds, may enter a seasonal off - peak. The 30 - year ultra - long - term special treasury bond will no longer be renewed, and 2500002 has an advantage in becoming the active bond [11]. - On October 10, 2025, Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods and export controls on key software, which will take effect on November 1, 2025, increasing the uncertainty of the Sino - US summit [15]. 3.2 Money Market - From October 9 to 11, 2025, the central bank's net reverse - repurchase investment was - 15263 billion yuan. The liquidity in the inter - bank market was loose after the cross - quarter. The net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) was positive, and the yields of NCDs declined [16][17]. - In the primary market, the total issuance scale of NCDs last week was 215.97 billion yuan, with a net financing of 81.02 billion yuan. The issuance scale of city commercial banks was the largest, but the net financing was negative. The issuance interest rates of NCDs increased compared with the previous week [26][28][30]. - In the secondary market, the yields of NCDs of all maturities decreased. The yield of AAA - rated 1 - month NCDs decreased by 17.96BP to 1.45%, and the 1Y - 3M spread was at the 56.98% quantile [32]. 3.3 Bond Market - In the first week after the holiday, treasury bonds were the main source of interest - rate bond supply. The total issuance of interest - rate bonds was 14, with an actual issuance of 286.864 billion yuan and a net financing of 215.998 billion yuan [34][41]. - In the primary market, from January to October, the net financing of local government bonds was faster than that of treasury bonds. As of October 11, 2025, the cumulative net financing of treasury bonds was about 5.58 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 6.15 trillion yuan [34]. - In the secondary market, from Thursday to Friday last week, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds decreased, and the 10 - 1 - year term spread was compressed. After Trump announced the tariff increase, the bond market declined significantly. The liquidity premium of active and sub - active bonds of 10 - year treasury bonds and 10 - year policy - bank bonds changed differently [34][46]. - The term spread of 10 - 1 - year treasury bonds was compressed to 47.19BP, and the 30 - 1 - year term spread widened. The long - and ultra - long - term spreads between local and national bonds changed differently [57][59]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - The 20 - day moving average of the daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase in the first week after the holiday was 7.53 trillion yuan, and the leveraged trading scale recovered after the holiday [62][68]. - In the cash - bond market, state - owned banks weakened their bond - buying, rural commercial banks significantly increased their purchases, especially of long - term local bonds and 5 - 10 - year policy - bank bonds. Securities firms and funds were also important buyers, while insurance companies were net sellers, especially of long - term treasury bonds [62][70]. - The current average cost of major trading players adding 10 - year treasury bonds is around 1.87% [74]. - Considering capital occupation and tax costs, commercial banks and insurance companies can obtain relatively higher returns by investing in local bonds [82]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures decreased by 0.10% compared with before the holiday, the wire rod futures price was flat, the cathode copper futures price increased by 3.39%, the cement price index increased by 0.45%, and the Nanhua Glass Index increased by 0.66%. The CCFI index was flat, and the BDI index decreased by 9.89% [85]. - In terms of food prices, the pork wholesale price decreased by 3.47%, and the vegetable wholesale price decreased by 2.99%. The settlement prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 1.15% and 1.38% respectively. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.11 [85].

2025.10. 12 美东时间10月10日，美方宣布，针对中方采取的稀土等相关物项出口管制，将对中方加征100%关税，并对所有关键 软件实施出口管制。 对此，10月12日，商务部网站发表《商务部新闻发言人就近期中方相关经贸政策措施情况答记者问》，在其中商务部 新闻发言人表示，动辄以高额关税进行威胁，不是与中方相处的正确之道。 对于关税战，中方的立场是一贯的，我们 不愿打，但也不怕打。 商务部新闻发言人表示，中方敦促美方尽快纠正错误做法，以两国元首通话重要共识为引领，维护好来之不易的磋商 成果，继续发挥中美经贸磋商机制作用，在相互尊重、平等协商基础上，通过对话解决各自关切，妥善管控分歧，维 护中美经贸关系稳定、健康、可持续发展。 商务部新闻发言人表示， 如果美方一意孤行，中方也必将坚决采取相应措施，维护自身正当权益。 稀土出口管制措施 商务部新闻发言人表示，10月9日，中方发布了关于稀土等相关物项的出口管制措施，这是中国政府依据法律法规， 完善自身出口管制体系的正常行为。中国作为负责任大国，始终坚定维护自身国家安全和国际共同安全，始终秉持公 正、合理、非歧视的原则立场，审慎适度实施出口管制措施。 商务部新闻发 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the challenges faced by U.S. soybean farmers due to a significant drop in exports to China, which has historically been a major buyer of U.S. soybeans [3][22] - President Trump's proposed subsidy plan aims to support farmers using revenue generated from tariffs, but the effectiveness of this plan is questioned [6][22] Group 1: Market Dynamics - U.S. soybean farmers are experiencing a rare bumper crop in 2025, yet their sentiment is extremely low due to plummeting prices, with estimates around $9.5 per bushel [3][11] - China accounted for nearly 40% of U.S. soybean exports last year, but current sales to China have dropped to zero, creating a significant market void [3][22] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that no new soybean shipments to China have been booked as of mid-September, indicating a severe decline in demand [3][22] Group 2: Political and Economic Implications - Trump's administration is under pressure from agricultural states, leading to the consideration of a subsidy plan funded by tariff revenues [6][8] - The political motivation behind the subsidy plan is to maintain support from soybean and cotton farmers, who are crucial for Trump's electoral base [8][22] - Despite promises of trade agreements to boost agricultural exports, these commitments have not materialized, leaving farmers feeling abandoned [17][22] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Other countries, such as Brazil and Argentina, are seizing the opportunity to capture market share from the U.S. by implementing favorable policies for soybean exports [14][16] - The U.S. soybean export volume to China has drastically decreased, with figures showing only slightly over 200 million bushels exported from January to August, compared to nearly 1 billion bushels in the same period the previous year [14][22] - The ongoing trade tensions have increased farming costs and diminished the competitiveness of U.S. agricultural products in the global market [17][22]

Economic Outlook - The biggest uncertainty facing China's economy this year is the extreme pressure from external tariffs, but the first half of the year showed three positive aspects: actual GDP growth of 5.3%, new achievements in technology and consumption, and proactive government measures to mitigate potential shocks [2] - The growth in the first half was primarily driven by resilient external demand, contributing an additional 1 percentage point to GDP growth, while consumption and investment saw declines of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points respectively [3] - The second half of the year will depend on whether domestic demand can effectively take over, as investment, consumption, and external demand all showed signs of slowing down in August [4] Consumer Behavior and Debt Levels - The decline in household leverage is attributed to multiple factors, including structural changes in consumption behavior due to the pandemic, uncertainties in Sino-US trade relations, and fluctuations in asset prices affecting borrowing demand [5] - The ongoing deleveraging process among households poses challenges for traditional methods of stimulating consumption through increased leverage [5] Policy Recommendations - There is a need for stronger coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, focusing on enhancing the effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment [7] - Continuous monitoring of domestic and international economic conditions is essential to ensure timely policy responses, avoiding delays that could exacerbate economic downturns [7] - Policies should be carefully evaluated for consistency, especially those that may restrict consumption, to avoid counterproductive effects on economic stimulus [8] Currency Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB has shown resilience against the USD despite external pressures, with a cumulative appreciation of about 1% as of September 19, 2025, attributed to a combination of internal and external factors [10] - The RMB's exchange rate is influenced by various factors, including the depreciation of the USD and improvements in China's economic fundamentals, suggesting that the RMB is not significantly overvalued [11][12] - The ongoing trade surplus indicates upward pressure on the RMB, while domestic economic conditions suggest that it may be slightly overvalued relative to internal equilibrium levels [12] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite a net outflow of RMB in cross-border transactions, the overall market does not indicate significant concerns regarding the RMB's valuation [13] - Factors that could positively influence the RMB include potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and progress in Sino-US trade negotiations [14] - However, uncertainties remain regarding the pace of Fed rate cuts, future trade negotiations, and the impact of domestic economic conditions on consumer demand [14][16]