Group 1: Report Overview - The report is dated June 3, 2025, and focuses on stock index futures [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The news is complex, but there is still support below for stock index futures [1] Group 4: Futures Data Tracking - On June 2, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month declined. IF fell 0.34%, IH fell 0.33%, IC fell 0.61%, and IM fell 0.88% [2] - The total trading volume of stock index futures decreased, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, IF decreased by 13,110 lots, IH by 2,353 lots, IC by 27,803 lots, and IM by 58,891 lots [3] - In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 16,628 lots, IH by 6,971 lots, IC by 13,683 lots, and IM by 26,656 lots [3] Group 5: Futures Member Positions - The data shows the changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members in different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM. For example, in the IF2506 contract, long positions decreased by 9,935 and short positions by 12,374 [6] Group 6: Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The range of trend intensity is an integer within [-2, 2] [7] - The US claims that China violated the consensus of the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks, but China firmly rejects the unreasonable accusation. The US has introduced new discriminatory restrictions against China, which has increased the uncertainty and instability of bilateral economic and trade relations [7] Group 7: Other Market News - The sales volume of consumer goods trade - in programs has exceeded 1 trillion yuan this year, driving the continuous recovery of consumption [8] - The Hong Kong stock market rebounded in a V - shape. The Hang Seng Index closed down only 0.57%. Pop Mart rose more than 4%, while the automobile stock sector declined due to the "price war" [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing tensions between the U.S. and China regarding trade agreements, specifically highlighting China's firm stance against U.S. accusations of violating the Geneva Economic and Trade Talks consensus [1][2]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce firmly rejected U.S. claims of violations, asserting that China has adhered to the consensus reached in the joint statement following the Geneva talks [1]. - Following the Geneva talks, the U.S. has implemented several discriminatory measures against China, including AI chip export controls and restrictions on sales of chip design software [1][2]. - The article emphasizes the importance of the joint statement as a significant achievement based on mutual respect and equal negotiation, urging the U.S. to correct its erroneous actions [2]. Group 2: Impact on Semiconductor Companies - Major EDA companies like Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens EDA have received notifications regarding new U.S. export restrictions, prompting Synopsys to suspend its financial forecasts for the upcoming fiscal year [2][3]. - Cadence described the new regulations as "very complex" and is currently seeking clarification while assessing the impact on its business [3]. - Siemens EDA is also collaborating with global clients to mitigate the effects of the new restrictions [3].

Group 1: Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate Stability - Despite intensified US-China trade tensions and cumulative tariffs exceeding 100%, the RMB to USD exchange rate remains stable, even slightly appreciating, which exceeds market expectations [2][3] - External factors contributing to this stability include the depreciation of the USD due to a crisis of confidence, as well as the impact of Trump's policies that have led to a significant decline in the USD index, which has dropped over 7% this year [3][4] - Internal factors include the anticipation of external pressures reflected in the RMB's previous adjustments, as well as government measures to stabilize the market, such as the introduction of financial policies and the release of stabilizing signals in the exchange rate [4][6] Group 2: Future Support for RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate is supported by four key factors: the negative impact of Trump's tariffs on the US economy, ongoing USD credit crises, the resumption of US-China economic dialogues, and the adequacy of China's policy reserves to stabilize market expectations [5][6] - The potential for a shift to two-way fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate is increasing, driven by the convergence of economic cycles and monetary policies between China and the US [6][7] Group 3: Corporate Exchange Rate Risk Management - Companies are advised to adopt a "risk-neutral" approach to manage exchange rate risks, avoiding unilateral bets on RMB appreciation or depreciation [8][9] - Recommended strategies include natural hedging through matching foreign exchange income and expenses, promoting the use of RMB for settlements, and utilizing foreign exchange derivatives to hedge against potential fluctuations [8][9]

Group 1 - The recent high-level economic talks between China and the United States in Geneva have made substantial progress, with both sides engaging in constructive communication and reaching important consensus [1][2] - The U.S. tariff policies have negatively impacted domestic businesses and the global economic order, leading to significant losses across various sectors, amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars [2] - The talks are seen as a crucial opportunity to alleviate trade tensions, with global economic growth expectations being downgraded due to the adverse effects of these tariffs [2][3] Group 2 - Swiss officials and business leaders view the talks as significant for reducing global trade uncertainty and fostering a cooperative environment between the two largest economies [3] - The successful outcome of the talks is expected to benefit not only the economies of China and the U.S. but also have a profound impact on the global economy [3]

Group 1 - The "5·07" incremental policy aims to stabilize the market and expectations, exceeding market expectations in certain aspects while aligning with the directives from the Politburo meeting [1][5] - The policy includes a broad range of measures, such as a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy interest rates and a 0.5 percentage point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, which are seen as significant yet conventional actions [7][10] - The A-share market reacted positively but more moderately compared to the previous "9·24" policy, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a cumulative increase of only 2% over three trading days following the announcement [3][5] Group 2 - The "5·07" policy reflects a continuation of the proactive macroeconomic stance established in previous meetings, emphasizing the need for effective implementation of existing policies and the introduction of new measures [2][11] - The government has outlined a framework for a more proactive fiscal policy, with a deficit rate set around 4% and an increase in new government debt to 11.86 trillion yuan, indicating a strong push for economic support [11][13] - The policy also includes targeted measures to support foreign trade enterprises affected by tariffs, ensuring financial assistance and promoting domestic sales [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent high-level economic and trade talks between China and the U.S. in Geneva resulted in significant progress and important consensus, benefiting both parties and aligning with global expectations [1][9]. Group 1: Meeting Atmosphere and Outcomes - The atmosphere of the talks was characterized as candid, in-depth, and constructive, leading to substantial progress and important agreements [5][6]. - Both sides openly discussed their concerns, providing quantitative data to support their positions, which facilitated deeper discussions [5][7]. - The talks were deemed successful, with both parties expressing satisfaction with the outcomes [6][8]. Group 2: Establishment of Communication Mechanism - China and the U.S. agreed to establish a mechanism for economic and trade consultations to maintain communication regarding mutual concerns in the economic field [10]. - The economic teams from both sides will lead this mechanism, engaging in regular and ad-hoc communications to address issues in China-U.S. trade [10][11]. Group 3: Future Cooperation and Challenges - The primary goal of the communication is to restore trade between China and the U.S., with plans to explore further issues and expand cooperation [11]. - There is significant potential for collaboration in manufacturing and emerging technologies, contingent on the U.S. perspective on these partnerships [12]. - The ongoing trade tensions have prompted a reevaluation of global supply chains, introducing uncertainty and potential costs [12][13]. Group 4: Global Trade Dynamics - The international community is engaged in a narrative regarding the short-term and long-term implications of tariffs, with various economies assessing the impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade [13]. - The current state of international division of labor and supply chains aligns with U.S. capital market interests, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of these arrangements if tariffs remain [13][14]. Group 5: Joint Commitment to Progress - The results of the talks are seen as a product of prior negotiations and mutual concessions, emphasizing the need for both sides to safeguard the outcomes for the benefit of global economic stability [19][20].

Group 1 - The visit of Katsuhiro Saito, leader of Japan's Komeito party, to China is significant as it marks the first official visit by a Japanese political leader to China since the onset of tariff negotiations under the Trump administration [1][3] - The letter from Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to China is seen as a signal of Japan's desire to strengthen ties with China amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. [1][3] - Japan aims to leverage its relationship with China to enhance its negotiating position with the U.S. during trade discussions, indicating that Japan is not solely reliant on the U.S. for economic partnerships [3][5] Group 2 - Japan is seeking to establish a cooperative relationship with China to bolster its economic resilience against U.S. pressures, especially in light of ongoing U.S.-China trade frictions [5][6] - The focus on Southeast Asia by Japan, including Ishiba's planned visits to Vietnam and the Philippines, highlights the region's growing importance in global supply chains and economic stability [5][6] - The potential for Southeast Asian countries to maintain neutrality in the U.S.-China trade conflict could benefit China's economic cooperation and stability in the region [8]

Domestic Economic Indicators - In March 2025, China's manufacturing PMI recorded 50.5, with a month-on-month change of 0.3[7] - The social retail sales total for February 2025 increased by 4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month change of 0.3%[27] - The total social financing scale for Q1 2025 reached 15.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.37 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year[2] Production and Demand - The domestic electric furnace operating rate was 64.1% as of April 3, 2025, unchanged from the previous week[10] - The average daily sales of domestic passenger cars reached 91,789 units as of March 31, 2025[30] - The wholesale price of pork was 20.51 yuan/kg as of April 9, 2025, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.25 yuan/kg[36] Trade and Investment - In February 2025, the import value increased by 1.5% year-on-year, with a month-on-month change of 18%[27] - The export value decreased by 3% year-on-year in February 2025, with a month-on-month change of -9%[27] - The cumulative year-on-year growth of fixed asset investment in February 2025 was 4.1%, with a month-on-month change of 0.9%[17] Market Volatility and Policy Impact - The announcement of a 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. led to a temporary decrease in the yield of U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds to around 4.3%[3] - The South China Industrial Products Index recorded 3,410.15, with a year-on-year change of -371.04[36]