1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybeans/meal, the monthly supply - demand report has limited impact. The market rebounds due to full reflection of previous negatives and macro - factors. South American demand is good, and overall price support exists but with limited upside. In China, supply is ample, demand is good, and inventory pressure is relatively large, so prices are expected to fluctuate [2][4][6]. - For sugar, globally, supply is transitioning from a deficit to a surplus. International prices are expected to rebound at low levels, and in the domestic market, Zheng sugar is likely to oscillate in a range and rebound in the short - term [11]. - For the oil and fat sector, the US biodiesel has been digested, and the oil and fat market has declined. The increase in production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to slow down. Indonesian inventory is low, and the price of palm oil is supported. Domestic soybean oil is in the process of inventory accumulation, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory, so prices are expected to oscillate and provide opportunities to buy on dips [17]. - For corn/corn starch, the US corn futures have declined, and the rebound space is limited. In China, corn supply is still scarce, and spot prices are expected to fall. The 01 corn contract is in bottom - range oscillation with limited downward space [26][28]. - For live pigs, large - scale enterprises maintain high slaughter volumes, and overall supply remains stable. With relatively high inventory, there is downward pressure on prices [34]. - For peanuts, the supply of new peanuts is still limited, and the market is stable. The 01 peanut contract is in short - term bottom - range oscillation [40]. - For eggs, as restocking in each link nears completion, egg prices are expected to face pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [47]. - For apples, the high - quality fruit rate of early - maturing apples is poor. The opening price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be high, and the futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [54]. - For cotton - cotton yarn, new cotton is entering the acquisition period. The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase, and there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand improvement is limited, so the market is expected to be slightly weak [65]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans/Meal - **Outer - market situation**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.4% to 1062.75 cents/bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.75% to 290 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Relevant information**: USDA export sales report forecast shows expected US 2025/26 market - year soybean export net sales of 40 - 150 tons; Anec reported Brazilian soybean and meal export volumes from September 14 - 20; extreme weather may delay Brazilian soybean planting by 2 - 3 weeks; Chinese oil mills' soybean inventory increased, and meal inventory also increased [2][3]. - **Logic analysis**: The monthly supply - demand report has limited impact, and the market rebounds due to previous negatives and macro - factors. South American demand is good, and overall price support exists but with limited upside. In China, supply is ample, demand is good, and inventory pressure is relatively large, so prices are expected to fluctuate [4][6]. - **Strategy suggestions**: Unilateral: wait and see; Arbitrage: expand the MRM05 spread; Options: wait and see [7]. Sugar - **Outer - market changes**: ICE US raw sugar and London white sugar prices both fell [7]. - **Important information**: Brazilian sugar exports in the first two weeks of September decreased compared to last year; 10 - month contract delivery information; the global sugar market is transitioning from a deficit to a surplus, and Brazilian sugar production has uncertainties [8][9][10]. - **Logic analysis**: Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, and global inventory is increasing. The expected increase in global sugar production is high, and prices are expected to rebound at low levels. Domestically, a large amount of imported sugar has entered the market, and Zheng sugar is likely to oscillate in a range and rebound in the short - term [11]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: consider buying near the previous low; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell out - of - the - money put options near the previous low [12][13]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Outer - market situation**: CBOT US soybean oil and BMD Malaysian palm oil prices both decreased [15]. - **Relevant information**: Malaysian palm oil production decreased in early September; Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase; Chinese oil and fat trading volume decreased [16]. - **Logic analysis**: US biodiesel has been digested, and the oil and fat market has declined. The increase in production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to slow down. Indonesian inventory is low, and the price of palm oil is supported. Domestic soybean oil is in the process of inventory accumulation, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory [17]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: consider buying on dips; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [18][19][21]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Outer - market changes**: CBOT corn futures fell [23]. - **Important information**: CBOT corn futures fell due to profit - taking and a stronger dollar; Chinese port corn and related product inventories changed; corn processing and starch production increased, and starch inventory decreased; North port purchase prices were weak [24][25]. - **Logic analysis**: US corn futures have declined, and the rebound space is limited. In China, corn supply is still scarce, and spot prices are expected to fall. The 01 corn contract is in bottom - range oscillation with limited downward space [26][28]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: wait for the 12 - month contract to correct and buy the 01 contract after it stabilizes; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [29][30][31]. Live Pigs - **Relevant information**: Pig prices are generally falling; piglet and sow prices are also falling; agricultural product wholesale price indices and pork prices decreased [33]. - **Logic analysis**: Large - scale enterprises maintain high slaughter volumes, and overall supply remains stable. With relatively high inventory, there is downward pressure on prices [34]. - **Strategy suggestions**: Unilateral: take a short - term bearish view on near - month contracts; Arbitrage: conduct LH15 reverse spreads; Options: buy long - term call options [35]. Peanuts - **Important information**: Peanut prices increased slightly; oil mills' purchase prices and arrival volumes were affected by rain; peanut oil and meal prices were stable; peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased [36][37][39]. - **Logic analysis**: The supply of new peanuts is still limited, and the market is stable. The 01 peanut contract is in short - term bottom - range oscillation [40]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: the 11 and 01 contracts are in bottom - range oscillation, and try short - term long positions on the 05 contract after it corrects; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [41][42][43]. Eggs - **Important information**: Egg prices are oscillating, with some areas stable and some falling; the number of laying hens in production increased in August; egg sales and inventories decreased [45][46]. - **Trading logic**: As restocking in each link nears completion, egg prices are expected to face pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [47]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: consider short - selling on rallies; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [48][49]. Apples - **Important information**: Apple cold - storage inventory decreased; apple exports increased, and imports decreased slightly; mid - season apple prices were firm, and new - season apple prices varied by region; storage merchants' profits decreased [51][52][53]. - **Trading logic**: The high - quality fruit rate of early - maturing apples is poor. The opening price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be high, and the futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [54]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: wait and see; Arbitrage: wait and see first; Options: wait and see [57][58]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Outer - market impact**: ICE US cotton prices fell [60]. - **Important information**: The Fed cut interest rates; Indian cotton weekly and cumulative listings changed; Zhangjiagang bonded - area cotton inventory decreased slightly [61][62]. - **Trading logic**: New cotton is entering the acquisition period. The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase, and there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand improvement is limited, so the market is expected to be slightly weak [65]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: expect US cotton to oscillate, and Zheng cotton to be slightly weak, and trade opportunistically; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [66].

Group 1: Overall Report Information - The report is a non - ferrous metals morning report released on September 17, 2025, by the non - ferrous metals team of the research center [1] Group 2: Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot premium of Shanghai copper increased by 25, the spread between scrap and refined copper increased by 257, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 3049. The LME inventory decreased by 1675 [1] - **Core View**: This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000, breaking upward on Thursday and Friday. Fundamentally, the domestic social inventory of copper did not accumulate despite the increase in imported copper arrivals. The downstream start - up weakened, and it was in the stage of consuming finished product inventory. Macroscopically, copper currently benefits from the global fiscal and monetary double - expansion. After the FOMC meeting next week, pay attention to the possible phased realization of bullish factors. The copper price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the third and fourth quarters. If there is a callback after short - term bullish factors are realized, consider laying out medium - term long positions below 79,500 or selling put options below 78,000 [1] Group 3: Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum ingots remained unchanged, the domestic alumina price decreased by 9, and the aluminum exchange inventory remained unchanged. The aluminum LME inventory decreased by 1500 [1] - **Core View**: Supply increased slightly, with imports of aluminum ingots providing an increment from January to July. Downstream start - up improved, but overseas demand declined significantly. In September, inventory is expected to decline. In the short - term, the fundamentals are okay. Pay attention to demand. Hold at low prices in the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1] Group 4: Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot premium remained at - 60, the price of Shanghai zinc ingots increased by 30, and the zinc social inventory remained unchanged. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 1175 [1][2] - **Core View**: This week, zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. On the supply side, the domestic TC decreased slightly, and the imported TC increased. In September, smelting production decreased slightly due to concentrated maintenance. On the demand side, domestic demand was seasonally weak, and overseas demand had some production resistance. The domestic social inventory continued to rise, and the overseas LME inventory decreased. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further differentiate. In the short - term, it can be used as a short - side configuration, and the internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued to hold [2] Group 5: Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the price of Shanghai nickel spot increased by 50, and the LME inventory increased by 1950 [3] - **Core View**: On the supply side, the production of pure nickel remained at a high level. On the demand side, it was weak overall, and the premium was stable recently. In terms of inventory, there was a slight accumulation in the domestic market and an increase in overseas warehouse receipts. In the short - term, the fundamentals are weak, and the anti - involution sentiment in the macro - aspect has rebounded. Pay attention to the news that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau has taken over part of the world's largest nickel mine [4] Group 6: Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the price of 304 cold - rolled coils increased by 50, and the price of 201 cold - rolled coils increased by 50 [5][6] - **Core View**: On the supply side, steel mills in the north are expected to resume production gradually. On the demand side, it is mainly for rigid demand. In terms of cost, the price of nickel iron remained stable, and the price of ferrochrome increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan remained stable, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly. Fundamentally, it is still weak. Pay attention to the news that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau has taken over part of the world's largest nickel mine [6] Group 7: Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot premium decreased by 5, the Shanghai - Henan price difference decreased by 25, and the LME inventory increased by 2225 [7] - **Core View**: This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. On the supply side, the scrap volume was weak year - on - year, and the supply of waste batteries was tight. On the demand side, the inventory of battery finished products was high, and the market was not prosperous in the peak season. The supply is expected to be tight, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000. In September, there is an expectation of a peak season, but the terminal consumption and lead ingot procurement are weak this week. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate significantly next week, in the range of 16,800 - 17,200 [7] Group 8: Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot import earnings decreased by 2200.06, the spot export earnings increased by 1949.49, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [9] - **Core View**: This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the processing fee of tin ore was at a low level, and some domestic smelters reduced production. Overseas, the import from Wa State was less than 200 metal tons in August, and the supply of raw materials is expected to increase gradually after October. On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, and the domestic inventory fluctuates. The LME inventory has rebounded from a low level. In the short - term, the domestic fundamentals are in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [9] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 15, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 65, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 33 [10] - **Core View**: This week, the leading enterprises in Xinjiang continued to resume production. Currently, the production in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable. In the short - term, the supply and demand in September and October are still in a tight balance state. In the long - term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still large, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [10] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 400, the SMM industrial carbon price increased by 400, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 139 [12] - **Core View**: This week, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. Affected by the expectation of CATL's resumption of production, the futures price dropped significantly in the middle of the week. On the raw material side, miners are not willing to sell at low prices. On the lithium salt side, upstream salt factories also have the sentiment of holding prices. The current basis level has strengthened slightly, and the supply of large - discount goods has decreased. The current contradiction is that under the background of over - capacity, the resource side faces phased compliance disturbances. In the seasonal peak season, the monthly balance after CATL's gradual production reduction turns to continuous inventory reduction, but the amplitude is small. The price elasticity is high after the speculation of supply - side disturbances is realized, and the price has strong downward support before the disturbances are realized [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - The current core contradiction in the polyolefin market is not prominent. In the PE market, the current maintenance remains high, and the short - term supply pressure is relatively limited. In the PP market, propane is strong, PDH losses intensify, and short - term unplanned maintenance increases. However, after the new device is put into production in early September, the pressure in East China increases, driving the basis to weaken rapidly, and market transactions are dull [23]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - The supply of pure benzene in September is expected to be more relaxed than expected due to the maintenance of a reforming device in East China, and the weakening demand support will limit the price drive. For styrene, the overall start - up of downstream 3S has rebounded this week, and the port inventory has fallen from a high level. There is an expectation of improvement in supply and demand in the future, but the rebound space is limited due to high port inventory [26]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - The caustic soda market has stabilized slightly in the past two days, and the supply is expected to decline next week. The demand is expected to weaken in the future, but the inventory pressure of caustic soda enterprises is not large, and the spot price may remain firm in the short term. The PVC market has stopped falling and stabilized recently, but the overall pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse, and there is no obvious sign of improvement in demand [30]. Polyester Industry - PX supply is gradually increasing to a relatively high level, and the supply - demand expectation in September is relatively loose, but the medium - term supply - demand is still expected to be tight. PTA supply - demand is expected to be tight in September, but the basis and processing fees have limited repair drivers. Ethylene glycol supply is strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - fiber supply - demand is still weak in the short term. Bottle - chip supply - demand may be balanced in September, and inventory may increase slightly [33]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices fell due to concerns about supply surplus overwhelming the premium brought by geopolitical risks. In the short term, oil prices are likely to run weakly, and it is recommended to take a short - side approach [38]. Urea Industry - The urea futures price is running weakly due to the dual pressure of increased supply and weak demand. The domestic urea daily output has rebounded, while agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is limited [42]. Methanol Industry - The methanol supply is expected to increase in September as domestic maintenance devices return and foreign start - up reaches a seasonal high. The demand from traditional downstream industries remains weak, and the port inventory has increased significantly, with weak basis performance and prominent pressure [44]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all decreased, with decreases of 0.24%, 0.43%, 0.13%, and 0.71% respectively. The spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 increased by 28.00% and 42.55% respectively [23]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: PE and PP inventories showed different trends last week, with PE de - stocking and PP stocking. The current maintenance of PE remains high, and short - term supply pressure is limited. For PP, propane is strong, PDH losses intensify, and short - term unplanned maintenance increases, but new devices will increase pressure after being put into production in September [23]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR China pure benzene, and styrene in East China all changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 1.7%, and the price of styrene in East China increased by 0.3% [26]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 3.4%, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 10.2%. The supply of pure benzene in September is expected to decrease, and the demand support is weakening. For styrene, there is an expectation of improvement in supply and demand in the future [26]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% remained unchanged, the price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 0.2%, and the price of East China ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged [31]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories decreased by 7.8%, and the total social inventory of PVC increased by 2.1%. The supply of caustic soda is expected to decline next week, and the demand for PVC remains weak [31]. Polyester Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and various polyester products changed. For example, the price of POY150/48 increased by 0.5%, and the price of FDY150/96 decreased by 0.5% [34]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The supply of PX is gradually increasing, and the supply - demand in September is expected to be relatively loose. The supply - demand of PTA in September is expected to be tight, but the basis and processing fees have limited repair drivers. Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a short - term supply - demand balance but may face oversupply in the fourth quarter [34]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Change**: On September 12th compared with September 11th, the prices of Brent, WTI, and various refined oil products decreased. For example, the price of Brent decreased by 1.66%, and the price of NYM RBOB decreased by 0.51% [38]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of crude oil is expected to be in a record - high surplus next year, and the increase in Saudi Arabia's export quota to China confirms the supply pressure. The increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States has raised concerns about economic and demand slowdown [38]. Urea Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing price of the methanol main contract decreased by 0.83%, and the prices of various urea futures contracts and spreads also changed [42]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The domestic urea daily output has rebounded to 18.44 tons, and the start - up rate has increased month - on - month. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial rigid - demand procurement is limited. Although export containerization provides some support, the decline in Indian consumption weakens the positive effect [42]. Methanol Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 decreased by 0.83% and 2.30% respectively, and the MA91 spread decreased by 22.54% [44]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.43%, and the port inventory increased by 8.59%. The domestic maintenance devices are expected to return in early September, and the foreign start - up has reached a seasonal high, while the traditional downstream demand remains weak [44].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic indicators for August, highlighting a year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) decrease of 0.4% and a Producer Price Index (PPI) decrease of 2.9%, which aligns closely with the company's predictions. The article emphasizes the impact of base effects on these indices and suggests a slight improvement in the economic outlook for September and beyond [1][5][19]. Summary by Sections CPI and PPI Analysis - August CPI decreased by 0.4%, lower than the predicted -0.13%, while PPI decreased by 2.9%, closely matching the forecast of -2.96%. The simulated deflation index based on CPI and PPI is approximately -1.40%, similar to the previous value of -1.44% [1][5]. - The article notes that August experienced significant base pressure for CPI and PPI, indicating a collision of the highest CPI base pressure and the largest PPI base advantage of the year [1][6]. Monthly Trends - Both CPI and PPI remained flat month-on-month in August, showing slight improvement compared to previous periods. Notably, PPI components marked the first month of positive growth in 2023, and core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose to a new high of 0.9% year-on-year [1][8][19]. - The non-food CPI segment showed weaker month-on-month performance compared to July, primarily due to the price rhythm of durable goods. Despite this, household appliances still saw a month-on-month increase of 1.1% and a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [13][14]. PPI Component Insights - The article highlights a clear stabilization in upstream prices, with mining and raw materials showing significant month-on-month positive changes. Key industries such as coal mining and black metal smelting transitioned from negative to positive growth [16][17]. - The automotive manufacturing sector continued to experience a decline of 0.3% month-on-month, primarily attributed to traditional fuel vehicles, while prices for photovoltaic equipment and new energy vehicles showed reduced year-on-year declines [16][17]. Policy Implications - The article suggests that the rising price indicators in the PMI over three consecutive months indicate initial effectiveness of the "anti-involution" policies. The PPI data for August supports this conclusion, with a clear policy direction aimed at consolidating competitive restructuring in key industries [3][19]. - Looking ahead, the company forecasts that September's CPI and PPI will benefit from favorable base effects, projecting a year-on-year CPI increase of 0.15% and a PPI decrease of 2.55%, indicating potential improvements in deflationary pressures [19][20]. Market Dynamics - The article discusses the transition from liquidity-driven asset pricing to profit-driven phases, contingent on actual and nominal growth recovery. The construction industry and PPI are identified as critical indicators for this transition [4][20].

Summary of the Conference Call for Tianji Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - The lithium hexafluorophosphate market is experiencing strong demand, primarily driven by growth in the energy storage sector, with an optimistic demand growth rate of 25%-30% expected through 2026 [2][3] - The market is becoming increasingly concentrated, with the top three companies holding over 70% of the market share, which has recently approached 80% [4] - The supply-demand situation is currently tight, with rising lithium carbonate prices increasing raw material costs, leading to price hikes for small batch orders [16] Company Performance - Tianji Co., Ltd. has significantly increased its lithium hexafluorophosphate production, expecting to produce approximately 24,000 tons in the second half of the year, a rise of 9,000 tons compared to the first half [2][7] - The nominal annual production capacity is 37,000 tons, with actual capacity potentially reaching 45,000 tons [8] - The company plans to invest nearly 400 million yuan in a new 15,000-ton production line, with equipment costs estimated at 25-26 million yuan per ton [2][28] Sales and Market Share - In 2025, Tianji's total sales are projected to be close to 40,000 tons, with C customers accounting for approximately 40% of sales [11] - The market share among C customers is estimated to be around 30%-35%, with expectations of over 25% growth in sales to these customers in 2026 [12][13] Pricing and Cost Structure - Tianji is currently operating at a break-even point with a sales price of around 55,000 yuan per ton, with production costs for new capacity slightly above 50,000 yuan per ton [5][17] - The cost difference between old and new production lines is approximately 10,000 to 15,000 yuan per ton [18] Future Outlook - The company anticipates limited new capacity additions in the first half of 2026, which may lead to a supply-demand imbalance and potential price increases [20] - If the growth rate reaches 30% in 2026, a supply shortage is likely, further solidifying the market position of leading companies [21] - The overall effective capacity in the industry is expected to be below 300,000 tons, with the top companies collectively holding about 200,000 tons of capacity [24] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is challenging for smaller companies, many of which are operating at reduced capacity or have ceased production due to cost pressures [25][27] - The top three companies maintain communication and collaboration to navigate market changes and avoid destructive competition [30] Financial Performance - Tianji has reported consecutive losses in 2024 and 2025, highlighting the cyclical nature of the industry and the need for periodic market adjustments [31] - The company has effectively managed inventory write-downs, with no significant impacts on the third quarter's performance [37] Raw Material Prices - Key raw materials, including anhydrous hydrofluoric acid and phosphorus pentachloride, have shown stable pricing trends, with the latter experiencing a decline due to oversupply [32] Customer Relationships - Pricing negotiations with major customers like BYD and CATL are structured around long-term contracts, with adjustments based on market conditions [33][34] International Operations - Tianji currently supplies a small volume of products overseas but has no immediate plans for overseas manufacturing due to high costs [39]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The copper price broke through and rose this week. With supply disturbances and expected decline in electrolytic copper production in September, there is obvious support at the bottom, and potential squeezing risks should be noted [1]. - For aluminum, supply slightly increased, and demand is expected to improve seasonally in September with inventory depletion. Attention should be paid to reverse spreads between distant months and inside - outside in the low - inventory pattern [1]. - The zinc price fluctuated narrowly this week. In the short term, it is expected to rebound and is recommended for observation; in the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable for short - side allocation. Inside - outside positive spreads can be held, and opportunities for positive spreads between months can be noted [5][6]. - The nickel market has high - level pure nickel production, weak overall demand, and stable premiums. With the situation in Indonesia to be continuously monitored, the short - term fundamental situation is average [7]. - The stainless - steel market has weak fundamentals with partial passive production cuts by steel mills, mainly rigid demand, and stable inventory in Xifu areas. Attention should be paid to the development of the situation in Indonesia [10]. - The lead price oscillated this week. Supply is expected to be tight, demand has a slight improvement, but inventory is at a high level. It is expected that the lead price will maintain a low - level oscillation next week [12]. - The tin price oscillated upward this week. The domestic market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term. It is recommended to observe in the short term and hold at low prices near the cost line in the medium - to - long - term [15]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term supply - demand balance depends on the resumption rhythm of Hesheng. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom due to over - capacity [18]. - The lithium carbonate price declined this week. The core contradiction is the excess supply in the medium - to - long - term and the short - term compliance disturbances at the resource end. With the arrival of the peak season, the price has strong downward support [20][21]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 25, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 39, and the LME inventory decreased by 200 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Market orders remained resilient, and the copper rod operating rate showed no obvious distinction between peak and off - peak seasons. The rumor of tax rebate cancellation in some areas led to a tight waste - refined price difference, and the production of anode copper may be affected in September and October. The planned production of electrolytic copper in September decreased unexpectedly [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots all increased by 20, and the domestic alumina price decreased by 12. The LME inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply slightly increased, and demand was in the seasonal off - peak season in August with a slight improvement in the middle and late stages. The inventory is expected to deplete in September [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 90, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 375 [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic TC of zinc ore has limited upward movement, and the import TC increased. The smelting increment in August was further realized. Domestic demand is seasonally weak but has certain resilience, and overseas demand has some resistance in production due to processing fees [5]. Nickel - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 1550, and the LME inventory increased by 3996 [6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: Pure nickel production remained at a high level, demand was weak, and premiums were stable. The situation in Indonesia needs continuous monitoring [7]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the 304 cold - rolled coil price increased by 50, and the 430 cold - rolled coil price increased by 100 [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills had partial passive production cuts, demand was mainly rigid, and inventory in Xifu areas remained stable [10]. Lead - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the spot premium increased by 5, and the LME inventory decreased by 3475 [12]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to be tight, demand has a slight improvement, but inventory is at a high level. It is expected that the lead price will maintain a low - level oscillation next week [12]. Tin - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the spot import profit increased by 874.40, and the LME inventory increased by 20 [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term. Supply is affected by smelter maintenance and overseas production resumption difficulties, and demand has a peak - season expectation but also a decline in photovoltaic growth [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 20, and the 553 East China basis decreased by 20 [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The resumption of production in Xinjiang is progressing steadily, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable. The short - term supply - demand balance depends on the resumption rhythm of Hesheng, and there is over - capacity in the medium - to - long - term [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1600, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 2111 [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The price declined this week due to multiple factors. The core contradiction is the excess supply in the medium - to - long - term and the short - term compliance disturbances at the resource end. With the arrival of the peak season, the price has strong downward support [20][21].

Group 1 - The best time to buy gold typically occurs during periods of price lows, low market risk sentiment, and strong dollar and real interest rates putting pressure on gold prices [1][3] - When international gold prices adjust due to short-term economic data or policy expectations, but long-term demand logic remains intact, it is often the best time for rational investment [1][3] - If precise short-term fluctuations cannot be predicted, strategies such as dollar-cost averaging or phased buying can help smooth costs and reduce the risk of one-time purchases [1][3] Group 2 - Key factors influencing the timing of gold purchases include price trends, market environment, and macroeconomic conditions [3] - Price factors are fundamental for choosing when to buy gold, as significant price fluctuations require understanding price ranges [4][5] - When international gold prices decline more than 5%-10% from recent highs and stabilize at key support levels, it often indicates undervaluation, suggesting phased buying [5][6] Group 3 - The long-term trend of gold is closely related to the global economic environment [6][7] - A strong dollar index or a Federal Reserve rate hike cycle tends to put pressure on gold prices, making it a potentially lower-cost buying opportunity [7][8] - When inflation rises, financial markets become unstable, or geopolitical risks emerge, demand for gold significantly increases, leading to potential price rises, thus making early positioning advisable [8][9] Group 4 - Market sentiment often amplifies price volatility, and during overly optimistic periods, it is unwise to chase high prices [9][10] - When trading in the gold market is quiet, and mainstream analysis is cautious or pessimistic, it often indicates that prices are nearing undervaluation, presenting a more stable buying opportunity [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant recovery in the fatty acid market, particularly for stearic acid and lauric acid, driven by the strong rise in palm oil prices since August [1][2] - As of August 31, the average price of stearic acid was 10,044 yuan per ton, an increase of 571.22 yuan (6.03%) from August 1, while lauric acid averaged 18,600 yuan, up 1,703.05 yuan (10.08%) [1][2] - The domestic market is experiencing tight supply and cost support, leading stearic acid producers to flexibly adjust prices based on their inventory, with expectations of price increases in the short term [1][2] Group 2 - The strong performance of palm oil, primarily imported from Malaysia and Indonesia, is influencing domestic prices, with palm oil prices rising to an average of 9,393.57 yuan, up 470.64 yuan (5.27%) since August 1 [2] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory was reported at 2.113 million tons, lower than expected, while exports increased by 3.82%, alleviating concerns of oversupply and supporting price increases [2] - Indonesia's biodiesel policies are expected to sustain demand for palm oil, further supporting international prices as exports decrease [2] Group 3 - The fatty acid market is facing supply constraints due to raw material shortages, low operating rates, and low inventory levels among companies, which are limiting the availability of stearic acid [3] - Despite weak terminal demand and reduced production capacity, the overall supply-demand balance remains tight, keeping stearic acid prices elevated [3] - The import volume of stearic acid in July was 15,700 tons, a decrease of 32.9% year-on-year, with rising import costs further suppressing import intentions [3] Group 4 - Demand for fatty acids is currently weak, with downstream industries primarily consuming previously low-priced orders and showing resistance to high-priced raw materials [4] - The tire and real estate sectors have not yet activated demand, leading to a supply surplus in the stearic acid market, where some manufacturers are forced to lower prices to stimulate sales [4] - The PVC production chain, which relies on stearic acid, is facing low demand due to limited new construction projects in real estate, resulting in only essential purchases from downstream enterprises [4] Group 5 - Lauric acid demand is also affected by seasonal changes, with a decline in demand from the daily chemical and food industries as they enter autumn and winter [5] - However, there is some minor replenishment of inventory due to the rising prices of palm kernel oil, despite overall market transactions being limited [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The copper price broke upward this week. The market order transactions remained resilient, and the difference between refined and scrap copper prices was tight. There are concerns about anode copper production in September and October, and potential squeeze - out risks should be noted [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly, with imports providing an increment from January to July. August was a seasonal off - peak for demand, but there was a slight improvement in the second half of the month. In September, inventory is expected to decline. Pay attention to far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. - The zinc price fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply increased in August, and demand was seasonally weak domestically but had some resistance overseas. Short - term rebound is expected, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and take a short - position in the long - term. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be held, and positive spreads between months can be noted [4]. - For nickel, the production of pure nickel remained at a high level, demand was weak overall, and domestic inventory decreased slightly while overseas inventory remained stable. The situation in Indonesia needs continuous attention [6]. - The stainless - steel market had some passive production cuts by steel mills. Demand was mainly for rigid needs, costs were relatively stable, and inventory remained unchanged. Follow the situation of the Indonesian parade [9]. - The lead price fluctuated this week. Supply was expected to be tight, demand improved slightly, but inventory was at a high level. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation next week [11]. - The tin price oscillated upward this week. The domestic market was in a state of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold positions at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [14]. - For industrial silicon, the production in Xinjiang is expected to accelerate, and the southwest production is stable. The short - term supply - demand balance depends on the resumption of production of Hesheng. In the long - term, it will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [17]. - The lithium carbonate price decreased this week. The core contradiction is the long - term over - capacity and short - term supply disruptions. The price has strong downward support [19][20]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 55, the spread increased by 133, and the LME inventory increased by 950. The copper price broke upward this week [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Market orders were resilient, and the difference between refined and scrap copper prices was tight. Some regions' scrap copper rod production decreased, and there are concerns about anode copper production in September and October [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 100. Supply increased slightly, and demand was in a seasonal off - peak in August [1]. - **Inventory and Outlook**: In September, inventory is expected to decline. Pay attention to far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory situation [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 120, and the LME inventory decreased by 1500. The zinc price fluctuated narrowly this week [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased in August, domestic demand was seasonally weak, and overseas demand had some resistance. Short - term rebound is expected, and long - term short - position is recommended [4]. Nickel - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 500, and the LME inventory decreased by 132. The production of pure nickel remained at a high level, and demand was weak [6]. - **Situation in Indonesia**: The parade in Indonesia turned into a riot, and the situation needs continuous attention [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the price of 430 cold - rolled coil increased by 50, and the price of scrap stainless steel decreased by 30. Some steel mills had passive production cuts [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Demand was mainly for rigid needs, costs were relatively stable, and inventory remained unchanged. Follow the situation of the Indonesian parade [9]. Lead - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the lead price oscillated, the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000, and the exchange inventory reached a historical high of 70,000 tons [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply was expected to be tight, demand improved slightly, but inventory was at a high level. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation next week [11]. Tin - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the tin price oscillated upward, the LME inventory increased by 115, and the position increased by 15,147 [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic market was in a state of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold positions at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [14]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan changed, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased. The production in Xinjiang is expected to accelerate [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply - demand balance depends on the resumption of production of Hesheng. In the long - term, it will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the SMM electric and industrial carbon prices decreased by 350, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 930. The price decreased this week [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The core contradiction is the long - term over - capacity and short - term supply disruptions. The price has strong downward support [19][20].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The pure benzene market shows short - term resilience but faces increasing supply - demand contradictions and price decline risks after September [3]. - The styrene market has a short - term strong and medium - term pressured pattern, with limited upward price movement and a long - term supply - surplus situation [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On August 25, the styrene main contract closed down 0.65% at 7,330 yuan/ton with a basis of 25 (+28 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.03% at 6,206 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost**: On August 25, Brent crude closed at 63.7 (+0.1 dollars/barrel), WTI crude at 67.7 dollars/barrel, and East China pure benzene spot was 6,072.5 yuan/ton (-17.5 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene sample factory inventory was 20.3 tons (-0.3 tons), a 1.1% de - stocking; Jiangsu port inventory was 16.2 tons (+1.3 tons), an 8.5% stocking. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.4 tons (-0.2 tons), a 1.1% de - stocking [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene may have reduced supply due to plant maintenance at the end of August. Currently, the weekly styrene output is 37.1 tons (+0.2 tons) with a plant capacity utilization of 78.5% (+0.3%) [2]. - **Demand**: The downstream 3S开工率 varies. EPS capacity utilization is 61.0% (+2.9%), ABS 71.1% (+0%), and PS 57.5% (+1.1%), showing a continuous increase [2]. - **Views** - **Pure Benzene**: In the short - term, it maintains resilience due to plant fluctuations and low inventory, but after September, supply - demand contradictions may intensify, and prices may decline [3]. - **Styrene**: It has a short - term strong and medium - term pressured pattern. Short - term price increase is limited, and the medium - term is in an oversupply situation [4]. II. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: The report provides price data for styrene and pure benzene from August 22 to August 25, including futures, spot, and various price differences [6]. - **Output and Inventory**: From August 15 to August 22, styrene output increased by 0.45% to 37.1 tons, and pure benzene output increased by 1.26% to 45.1 tons. Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased by 8.53% to 16.2 tons, and pure benzene port inventory decreased by 1.37% to 14.4 tons [7]. - **Capacity Utilization**: From August 15 to August 22, the capacity utilization of styrene increased by 0.35% to 78.5%, and that of some downstream products changed to varying degrees [8]. III. Industry News - On the 22nd, the Russia - Ukraine peace talks faced difficulties, causing international oil prices to rise [9]. - Global diesel shortages support refinery profits, affecting the crude oil and chemical industry chain [9]. - India plans to expand petrochemical production to counter China's dominance in the global petrochemical market [9]. IV. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on pure benzene and styrene prices, production, inventory, and capacity utilization from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21]