农产品早报 2025-12-05 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周四 CBOT 大豆上涨，巴西升贴水上涨，大豆到港成本略涨。周四国内豆粕现货稳定，华东报 3010 元/ 吨，豆粕成交较弱、提货较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 213.53 万吨，上周压榨大豆 220.38 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 8.17 天环比上升 0.19 天，上周国内大豆及豆粕累库，主要是压榨量较大， 表观消费环比持平。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 巴西主要种植区 11 月同比偏干，不过 12 月初预报降雨恢复，然而东南部产区预计降雨量持续较少，产 区还未达到一帆风顺，据外媒报道，截至上周四，巴西 2025/26 年度大豆种植面积已达预期面积的 89%。 USDA 预测全球大豆供需格局由供需双增转换成供减需增，但因为全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高， 尚不足以产生 CBOT 大豆盘面种植利润丰厚的行情，预计在南美天气没有出现显著问题背景下大豆到港 成本仍然震荡为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton in November, with both supply and demand decreasing, but supply reduction being larger. However, due to a large supply base and the supplement of spot market supply from warehouse receipt cancellation, there is still expected to be inventory accumulation pressure [1]. Polysilicon - It is expected to maintain a high - level range oscillation, with a reverse market structure remaining. The trading strategy suggests trying long positions around 50,000 for futures, holding or taking profit on sell put options for options, and considering buying straddles if volatility decreases [2]. Tin - With a bullish view on tin prices in the short - term, as the fundamentals are relatively strong. It is recommended to hold previous long positions and pay attention to macro - end changes and the recovery of Myanmar's supply [4]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. Whether the market can rebound depends on the actual production reduction scale of existing enterprises and the inventory inflection point. - Electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to overseas monetary policy trends and domestic inventory destocking rhythm [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are likely to oscillate, with the main contract referring to the range of 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton. Although the previous supply pressure has eased, the fundamentals do not provide strong upward momentum [7]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to overseas interest - rate cut expectations and other macro - drivers [8]. Nickel - The market may oscillate and repair, but the medium - term supply surplus still restricts the upward space of prices. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short - term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and downstream procurement rhythm [11]. Stainless Steel - It is expected to oscillate, with the main contract operating in the range of 12,300 - 12,700 yuan/ton. Although there is some room for price repair at a low valuation, the driving force is limited. Attention should be paid to steel mill production reduction and nickel - iron prices [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, with the main contract operating in the range of 90,000 - 95,000 yuan/ton. Although the market shows resilience around 90,000, there is limited new driving force [15]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The spot prices of various industrial silicon products remained stable on November 25 compared to November 24, with the basis of some products showing a decline [1]. Monthly Spreads - The monthly spreads of industrial silicon contracts remained unchanged on November 25 compared to November 24 [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% month - on - month, with Xinjiang's production increasing significantly, while Yunnan and Sichuan's production decreased. The production of polysilicon increased by 3.08%, while the production of organic silicon DMC and regenerative aluminum alloy decreased. The export volume of industrial silicon decreased significantly by 35.82% [1]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's factory inventory and social inventory increased slightly, while the warehouse receipt inventory decreased [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - Polysilicon spot prices were stable, while battery cell prices declined, and the prices of mid - stream silicon wafers and battery cells were weak [2]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - Polysilicon futures oscillated upward, with the main contract rising to 54,730 yuan/ton. The spread structure showed a reverse market structure [2]. Fundamental Data - Weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 2.59%, while monthly polysilicon production increased by 3.08%. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers also showed certain changes [2]. Tin Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 0.58% on November 26 compared to the previous day, and the LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 19.15% [4]. Monthly Spreads - Some monthly spreads of tin contracts changed significantly, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 107.14% [4]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, while refined tin imports decreased by 58.55% and exports decreased by 15.33% [4]. Inventory Changes - SHEF inventory decreased slightly, while social inventory increased [4]. Aluminum Price and Spreads - The prices of SMM A00 aluminum and Yangtze River A00 aluminum increased slightly on November 26, and the spreads also changed [6]. Fundamental Data - In October, alumina and electrolytic aluminum production increased, while electrolytic aluminum exports decreased. The operating rates of some aluminum - related industries also showed certain changes [6]. Inventory Changes - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased, and LME inventory also decreased slightly [6]. Zinc Price and Spreads - The prices of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased slightly on November 26, and the spreads also changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In October, refined zinc production increased by 2.85%, imports decreased by 16.94%, and exports increased by 243.79% [7]. Inventory Changes - China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased, while LME inventory increased slightly [7]. Copper Price and Basis - The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased on November 26, and the basis and spreads also changed [8]. Fundamental Data - In October, electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62%, and imports decreased by 15.61%. The inventory of copper concentrates at domestic mainstream ports increased [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - The prices of various nickel products increased slightly on November 26, and the spreads and basis also changed [9]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production decreased slightly, and imports decreased significantly. The inventory of SHFE and social inventory decreased [9]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spreads - The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable on November 26, and the spreads changed [11]. Fundamental Data - In October, the production of regenerative aluminum alloy ingots decreased, while the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly. The operating rates of some aluminum alloy industries decreased [11]. Inventory Changes - The weekly social inventory of regenerative aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly, and the daily inventory in some regions decreased [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spreads - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils remained stable or increased slightly on November 26, and the spreads changed [13]. Fundamental Data - In October, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China decreased slightly, while that in Indonesia increased slightly. Stainless steel imports increased, and exports decreased [13]. Inventory Changes - The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased slightly, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The prices of various lithium carbonate products decreased slightly on November 26, and the basis also decreased [15]. Monthly Spreads - The monthly spreads of lithium carbonate contracts changed [15]. Fundamental Data - In October, lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73%, demand increased by 8.70%, imports increased by 21.86%, and exports increased by 63.05%. The total inventory decreased by 10.90% [15].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Macro Economic Outlook for China**: The actual GDP growth target for 2026 is expected to be around 5%, reflecting government confidence and policy strength. Over the next decade, GDP growth must not be lower than 3.5% to reach the level of moderately developed countries [1][4] - **Fiscal Policy**: The fiscal policy is expected to remain expansionary, with a fiscal deficit rate maintained at around 4%. Special government bonds may increase to 2 trillion, and special bonds could reach 4.6 trillion [1][5][6] - **Investment and Consumption**: Investment is anticipated to achieve positive growth in 2026, while export growth is expected to remain strong but slightly decrease to 3.5%-4%. Consumption is influenced by subsidy uncertainties and needs further analysis [1][7] Key Points - **New Economy Contribution**: The new economy's share of GDP has risen to approximately 18%, with high-tech investment accounting for 12% of total investment. The new economy has surpassed the traditional economy in scale, significantly driving economic growth [1][12] - **Impact of Artificial Intelligence**: AI significantly affects energy demand, with data centers' electricity consumption continuously increasing, driving demand for energy storage and raw materials like copper, aluminum, silicon, and rare earths [1][13] - **Consumer Market Performance**: In 2025, consumer growth reached its best level in 20 years, but sales of subsidized goods have declined. Internal consumption momentum is rising, with significant contributions from daily necessities, services, and cultural education products [1][14] Additional Insights - **Real Estate Market Trends**: Although the real estate market is still experiencing negative growth, the rate of decline is slowing, indicating stabilization. Policy support is crucial, and adjustments to mortgage rates are necessary to stabilize housing demand [2][21][23] - **Price Trends**: CPI is expected to return to around 0.5% in 2026, while PPI may also recover but is projected to remain negative. This indicates potential improvements in industrial profit margins and boosts confidence in listed companies' earnings [2][24][26] - **Future of Capital Markets**: The outlook for the capital market is optimistic, with expectations that the technology sector will continue to lead. The market performance will be influenced more by industry highlights and mid-level performance rather than macroeconomic fluctuations [1][29]

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but limited operability in the market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and good investment prospects [1] - Timber: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, with a bullish bias but limited market operability [1] - 20 - day Rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor market operability [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balanced state and poor market operability [1] Core Views - The prices of different soft commodities show various trends. Some are in a state of shock, some are expected to be weak, and some are supported by certain factors. The investment strategies vary from commodity to commodity, including temporary observation, being bullish on certain commodities, and looking for cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded sharply. New cotton cost provides support but also limits price increase. It may continue range - bound. Despite large new cotton production increase, low commercial inventory and fast sales support the market. As of November 20, national cumulative processed lint was 4631000 tons, up 812000 tons year - on - year. As of November 15, commercial cotton inventory was 3639700 tons, down 204300 tons year - on - year. Cotton yarn market trading was weak. Suggestion: temporarily observe [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production data in the second half of October was bearish. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand started the new season with good production expectations. In China, Zhengzhou sugar was weak. In October, syrup imports decreased year - on - year, but sugar imports were high, with supply pressure. The market focus shifts to the next season's output estimate. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated. In Shandong, apple acquisition is almost over. As of November 20, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 7.33 million tons, down 12.73% year - on - year. The market trading logic shifts to sales expectations. Due to high acquisition prices and poor apple quality, there is a high sentiment of reluctance to sell, which may affect the de - stocking speed. Pay attention to de - stocking [4] 20 - day Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber RU futures prices rose slightly, 20 - day rubber IR and butadiene rubber BR futures prices fluctuated. Global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, but Yunnan in China is gradually entering the non - production period. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased. Domestic tire operating rate decreased, and tire enterprise inventories increased. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increased to 468900 tons. Suggestion: RU is bullish, NR and BR should be observed, and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5] Pulp - Pulp futures prices declined slightly. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.173 million tons, up 3.0% from the previous period. Supply is loose, demand is weak, and the basis has narrowed. Suggestion: temporarily observe [6] Logs - Futures prices fluctuated. In November, the price of New Zealand radiata pine continued to rise, while domestic spot prices were weak. Traders' import willingness declined. Port outbound volume is over 60000 cubic meters, and inventory is low. Suggestion: temporarily observe [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall non - ferrous metals market is in a state of adjustment, with different trends for each metal. Some metals are affected by factors such as inventory changes, policy uncertainties, and overseas market conditions [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Thursday saw Shanghai copper trading with a short - position and a negative line in a volatile manner. SMM spot copper was reported at 86,435 yuan, with premiums in Shanghai and Guangdong at 80 and 55 yuan respectively. SMM social inventory increased by 700 tons to 194,500 tons this week. Wait for the US September non - farm payroll data at night. The Fed meeting minutes showed large differences, and the probability of a December interest rate cut dropped to 30%. Hold short positions with a stop - loss at 87,000 yuan [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum showed a weak and volatile trend today. Spot discounts in East, Central, and South China slightly narrowed to - 10 yuan, - 100 yuan, and - 125 yuan respectively. The non - ferrous metals market as a whole has been adjusting with reduced positions recently. The short - term fundamentals of the aluminum market are average, and the inventory build - up indicates poor performance. The adjustment may continue. Pay attention to the support of the middle Bollinger Band. The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 20,800 yuan today. Scrap aluminum supplies are tight, and the tax rate policy adjustment is still unclear. Both industry inventory and exchange warehouse receipts are at high levels. Cast aluminum alloy continues to follow the aluminum price, and the spread with AL may narrow. Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and both industry inventory and exchange warehouse receipts are rising. The oversupply situation is hard to change, and there is no movement during the heating season. Spot indices in various regions dropped by 5 yuan today. Alumina is likely to operate weakly before large - scale production cuts occur [3] Zinc - The impact of environmental protection in the north has been lifted, and downstream purchasing has accelerated. SMM zinc social inventory decreased to 152,700 tons, while LME zinc inventory increased to 45,000 tons. LME zinc broke through the support level and declined, but the tight overseas spot market still supports a high 0 - 3 month spot premium of $152.14 per ton. The split structure of domestic and overseas inventories is gradually being repaired, and the three - month import loss of zinc has narrowed to around 3,000 yuan per ton. There is still profit space for the cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy on the futures market. Both domestic and overseas mine TC have decreased, and the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing at low prices has improved. Shanghai zinc is expected to stabilize above the 60 - day moving average and is likely to fluctuate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan per ton [4] Lead - After the lead price correction, downstream buyers were active. After the delivery, the SHFE lead warehouse receipts gradually decreased to 30,600 tons, and SMM lead social inventory decreased to 37,700 tons. The low inventory level supports the futures price. SMM 1 lead has a discount of 110 yuan per ton to the nearby contract. The profit of recycled lead is under pressure, and the refined - scrap spread has narrowed to 25 yuan per ton. LME lead inventory is at a high level of 264,000 tons, with a 0 - 3 month discount of $27.39 per ton. The overseas market's oversupply pressure remains unchanged, and LME lead still has room for further correction. There is an expectation that the lead ingot import window will open, and Shanghai lead lacks the momentum to rebound. The lower support is tentatively seen at 17,000 yuan per ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel opened high and closed low, and market trading was dull. After the US government ended the shutdown, the positive news was exhausted, and the market began to worry about the stability of overseas liquidity. Pay attention to whether the Fed will take actions to ease the liquidity pressure recently. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 3,900 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 500 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 175 yuan. The spot price of Jinchuan nickel declined, and the price of high - nickel iron is quoted at 906 yuan per nickel point. The support brought by the rebound of upstream prices is weakening, which may drag down the overall price level of the nickel industry chain. Pure nickel inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 53,100 tons, nickel iron inventory increased by 500 tons to 29,600 tons, and stainless steel inventory increased by 6,700 tons to 952,000 tons. The bullish factors for Shanghai nickel are exhausted, and the nickel price is in a weak trend with a downward - shifting center of gravity [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed with a negative line and reduced positions. There is an environmental risk in a rare earth and tin mining area in Malaysia, and the mining area is under rectification. Due to the lack of specific data, the current impact on the tin market is limited. The domestic spot tin price remained unchanged at 291,500 yuan, with a discount of 100 yuan to the delivery month. The resumption rhythm of low - grade mines and the efficiency of capacity rectification of Indonesia's PT Timah are the keys to deepening the tight supply in the future. Hold long - term short positions with a stop - loss at 295,000 yuan [8] Lithium Carbonate - There is a battle at the integer - level price of lithium carbonate, and market trading is active. Downstream material factories are actively producing, and about 20 lithium iron phosphate enterprises have reached full - capacity operation. This phenomenon is expected to continue until the end of the year, mainly because downstream battery cell factories have a large increase in orders: the pure - electric heavy - truck project is continuously advancing, the traditional peak sales season of "Golden September and Silver October" for cars, and the shortage of energy - storage battery cells. The total market inventory decreased by 2,000 tons again, and traders increased their inventory. The sentiment in the middle - stream has improved, and the spot market shows some support. The latest quotation of Australian ore is $1,055. The lithium carbonate futures price is strengthening, inventory is continuously decreasing, and downstream demand is strong. Technically, it has broken through the range. Adopt a strategy of buying on dips [9] Industrial Silicon - After a short - term upward rush, the industrial silicon futures decreased in positions and declined today. The spot price increased slightly by 100 yuan per ton, and the price of downstream organic silicon DMC remained stable at 13,100 yuan per ton (SMM). Based on the "anti - involution" principle, the organic silicon industry plans to promote a joint emission - reduction plan in December, which is expected to affect the demand for industrial silicon by about 4,000 tons (corresponding to a reduction of 8,000 tons of DMC production), which is more cautious than the previous 30% reduction expectation. Overall, industrial silicon is in a technical correction in the short term, and the price is still expected to rise with the pricing repair expectation of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures declined synchronously with industrial silicon. The spot price of N - type polysilicon for re - feeding fluctuated within a narrow range, quoted by SMM at 49,700 - 54,900 yuan per ton. The overall demand in the photovoltaic market is weak, the marginal decline in terminal purchasing is obvious, and there is no intention to purchase domestic products overseas. There is still an expectation of reducing production in the component sector in December, and the inventory pressure in the battery cell sector is large. Although the polysilicon industry has cut production, the actual improvement in supply - demand is limited, and the price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Instead, it offers investment suggestions for various futures contracts in different sectors. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic stock index shows resilience, with overall volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. The A - share market is in a repricing adjustment, with short - term fluctuations and limited downside risks. [2] - The bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield facing resistance around 1.8%. [2] - Precious metals are expected to find support at certain levels, with a suggestion to buy on dips. [2] - Different commodities in the black, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and agricultural sectors have different price trends and corresponding investment strategies. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic stock index futures are in a state of repricing adjustment. Short - term fluctuations are common, and it is recommended to wait and see. In case of a deep one - day decline, a bull spread of put options can be arranged. [2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly. For the TL2512 contract, the fluctuation range is expected to be between 115.9 - 116.7, and an interval operation strategy is recommended. [2] Precious Metals - **Gold**: It is expected to find support around $4000 (925 yuan). A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, and selling out - of - the - money put options is suggested. [2] - **Silver**: It follows the trend of gold and is expected to find support around $49 (11,800 yuan). A light - position trial long strategy on dips is recommended. [2] Black Commodities - **Steel**: The volume of rebar and hot - rolled coil is expected to increase, and the spread between them is expected to widen. Rebar and hot - rolled coil should respectively focus on the support levels of 3000 and 3200. [2] - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a reference range of 750 - 800, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended. [2] - **Coking Coal**: It is viewed bearishly, with a reference range of 1100 - 1200. [2] - **Coke**: It is also viewed bearishly, with a reference range of 1600 - 1700. [2] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to fluctuate, with a reference range of 85,500 - 87,500. [2] - **Aluminum**: Different aluminum - related contracts have different expected price ranges. Some may have short - term downward space. [2] - **Zinc**: Supported by supply reduction expectations, with a reference range of 22,200 - 22,800, and long positions should be held. [2] - **Tin**: The price is expected to be strong, and long positions should be held. [2] Energy - Chemical Commodities - **PX**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. [2] - **PTA**: The medium - term supply - demand outlook is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. A rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 is recommended. [2] - **Short - fiber**: Similar to PTA, with a focus on reducing processing fees on rallies. [2] - **Bottle - chip**: The supply - demand pattern in November remains loose, and it follows the cost - end trend. [2] - **Ethanol**: There is short - term rigid demand support, but supply is high, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. [2] - **Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended. [2] - **Styrene**: It may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. [2] - **LLDPE**: The price changes little, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended. [2] - **PP**: Due to unexpected maintenance, the downward space is limited, and short - position stop - profit is recommended. [2] - **Methanol**: The port market continues to weaken, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of narrowing MTO in the 05 contract. [2] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to be weak, and a bearish view is recommended. [2] - **PVC**: The supply - demand contradiction remains, and a bearish strategy is recommended. [2] - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern is weakening, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended. [2] - **Glass**: It is expected to be weak, and a bearish view is recommended. [2] - **Natural Rubber**: Supported by overseas raw materials, the price is rising, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended. [2] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to face pressure at the upper level, and a mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended, with attention to the pressure around 10,800. [2] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic supply is loose, and attention should be paid to the support around 3000. [2] - **Pig**: There are signs of stabilization in the spot market, and a 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy should be held. [2] - **Corn**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2200. [2] - **Edible Oils**: The price is rising, and the P contract may reach 8900 in the short term. [2] - **Sugar**: Under the pressure of production increase, it is expected to be weak. [2] - **Cotton**: With a global bumper harvest and weak domestic downstream trading, it is expected to be weak. [2] - **Egg**: The supply is still loose, and short - position stop - profit should be gradually carried out on dips for the 2512 contract. [2] - **Apple**: It may fluctuate around 9500 in the short term. [2] - **Jujube**: It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support around 9000. [2]

Summary of Zinc Alloy Market Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the zinc alloy market in China for the year 2025, highlighting price trends, supply-demand dynamics, and industry applications [1][5][9]. Key Points Price Trends - The overall price of zinc alloy in China showed a downward trend in 2025, with the highest price recorded at 25,389 CNY/ton in January, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.54%, and the lowest at 22,907 CNY/ton in September, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 7.55% [1][5]. - Factors influencing price fluctuations include global macroeconomic instability, uncertainty in Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, and a supply increase coupled with weak demand [1][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply pressure increased in 2025 due to the release of new production capacity from smelting plants, while downstream demand remained weak, leading to an oversupply situation [7]. - The operating rate decreased from 64.54% in 2023 to 61% in 2025, with a notable decline during the Spring Festival due to delays in resuming operations [7]. - Import volumes of zinc alloy decreased in 2025, primarily from South Korea, Australia, and Japan, while exports surged in April due to consumption subsidies and export policies, reaching 1,281.714 tons [8]. Processing Fees - Processing fees for zinc alloys increased, with fees for die-casting No. 3 ranging from 400 to 950 CNY/ton and No. 5 from 1,000 to 1,500 CNY/ton, indicating differentiated pricing strategies based on product specifications [6]. Industry Applications - Zinc alloy applications are diverse, with approximately 45% used in the construction industry, benefiting from real estate completion and renovation projects [9]. - The automotive industry accounts for about 21% of zinc alloy usage, with a shift towards high-strength and corrosion-resistant materials due to lightweight demands [9]. - The home appliance sector represents 13% of the market, driven by consumption upgrades from policies promoting the replacement of old appliances [9]. Future Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment may see positive influences from U.S. trade policy changes, but challenges remain due to potential supply-demand imbalances and the impact of new smelting capacities [10]. - The overall demand for zinc alloy may face downward pressure, particularly in traditional sectors, while the performance in peak seasons is expected to be weaker than in previous years [10]. Regional Production - Major production regions in China include East China (29%), Central China (21%), and South China (18%), with significant companies like Zhuzhou Smelting Group and Yunnan Chihong Company serving the southern market [4]. Conclusion - The zinc alloy market in China for 2025 is characterized by fluctuating prices, increased supply pressures, and diverse applications across various industries. The outlook remains cautious due to potential oversupply and weak demand in traditional sectors [1][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand growth, with reduced maintenance leading to increased supply and a slight accumulation of inventory under the pressure of new production capacity. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand. Although unplanned maintenance eases some supply pressure, imported goods are abundant, and demand is generally weak except for agricultural films. The inventory of hedging merchants is gradually decreasing, the basis is strengthening, and inventory is being cleared. When the price is below 6800, the downstream's willingness to buy increases. The cost side is affected by the shock of crude oil and the strength of coal, and the PDH profit has continued to weaken this week. [2] Methanol - In the domestic market, Baofeng continues to purchase externally, and Jiutai has an unexpected maintenance. The domestic production will continue to increase. Currently, the marginal devices in the domestic market have suffered losses. In the port market, the gas restriction in Iran has been postponed, and the shipment has accelerated. As of November 19, Iran has shipped 885,000 tons, putting significant pressure on the port methanol market. With high inventory and the profit of imported methanol from Iran, the willingness to hold goods has weakened, and the price has declined while the basis remains stable. The demand side is based on rigid procurement. The market is currently trading on the logic of "weak reality", and the core contradiction lies in the high inventory in the port. The inventory contradiction of the 01 contract cannot be resolved, and the weak reality will continue to be traded before the gas restriction in Iran. [4] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The market has returned to a weak state, and the overall pattern of oversupply is still prominent. Fundamentally, the weekly production remains at a high level of around 750,000 tons, and the oversupply is obvious compared with the current rigid demand. The inventory of manufacturers has been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory has continued to rise. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid demand pattern. If there is no actual production capacity exit or load reduction in the future, the supply - demand situation will be further pressured. - Glass: The spot sales have strengthened, and the high sales rate in some regions has continued to be above 100%. Consecutive price cuts have driven the middle and lower reaches to purchase. Although 4 production lines in the Shahe area were cold - repaired last week, there will be production lines restarting and igniting in the future, which will put pressure on the supply side. The latest deep - processing order days have improved slightly, and there is still some rigid demand support in the short term as November is the peak season for year - end rush work. However, in the medium and long term, at the end of the peak season, the market is worried about the sustainability of future demand. As the temperature in the north drops, outdoor construction will gradually stop, and the demand side will shrink after December, putting pressure on the glass price. The real estate is still in the bottom cycle, and the completion volume has decreased significantly. Therefore, in the oversupply pattern, the glass industry still needs to clear production capacity to solve the oversupply dilemma. [7] PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: The supply - demand situation of the caustic soda industry still faces certain pressure. The purchasing enthusiasm of the main downstream alumina has decreased, so the support from the main demand side of caustic soda is weak, which suppresses the caustic soda price upwards. During the northern environmental protection control period, some alumina plants may have production reduction expectations. There is an overhaul expectation in the East China region, and the supply will decrease slightly. The price in this region may be relatively stable due to certain rigid demand support, but in the long term, the supply - demand still has pressure. The non - aluminum market is still sluggish, and overall, the supply - demand pressure is still relatively large. It is expected that the caustic soda price will fluctuate weakly. - PVC: The PVC spot market continues to fluctuate weakly. This week, maintenance and partial device load reduction have led to a decrease in production on a month - on - month basis, but it is still at a high level. Affected by local logistics, the market arrivals have decreased, and the social inventory has decreased on a month - on - month basis. Next week, the supply - side operating rate will increase. The demand side is in the traditional off - season from November to January of the next year. As the outdoor construction in the north gradually decreases in winter, the overall real estate demand reduction still has a negative impact. In terms of exports, India has officially cancelled the BIS certification for imported PVC issued in 2024, which is beneficial for domestic PVC to enter the Indian market. However, there is an expectation of anti - dumping duties, and the Asian contract price for December is still to be observed next week. It is expected that the external demand will be difficult to increase. The overall demand side has limited support for PVC. The supply - demand is still in an oversupply pattern, and it is difficult for the price to form an upward drive. It is expected to continue the weak pattern at the bottom. [8] Natural Rubber - The supply side: Yunnan has encountered cold weather, which has accelerated the end of the tapping season in Yunnan. The rainy season in southern Thailand continues, and the price of overseas raw materials is high, which strongly supports the rubber price. The demand side: Currently, the overall demand is weak. Channels are cautious in purchasing and mainly focus on digesting inventory. Next week, the purchasing enthusiasm of some agents on an as - needed basis may increase slightly, which will drive the overall sales volume. However, the overall demand is weakening, and the actual increase in purchasing volume is limited. The market still mainly focuses on digesting inventory. In conclusion, the natural rubber inventory has entered the seasonal inventory accumulation period, and the terminal demand support is insufficient. There is an expectation that the operating rate of downstream enterprises will further decline. It is expected that the natural rubber market will enter a range - bound consolidation. In the future, attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and macro - level changes. If the raw material supply is smooth, the rubber price is expected to decline. If the raw material supply is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to operate in the range of 15,000 - 15,500. [9] Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Recently, many sets of pure benzene devices have overhaul expectations, but the import expectation remains high, and the overall supply may still be relatively loose. On the demand side, the load of downstream styrene has increased due to the restart of some devices, but some loss - making varieties have reduced production to maintain prices, and the domestic demand side has limited support. The port inventory has increased, and there are still many arrivals in the future, so the supply pressure of pure benzene is relatively large. After the overhaul of the disproportionation device in the US Gulf ends, the support from blending oil may weaken, but South Korea's aromatics have an export expectation to the US, and the US dollar price of pure benzene has increased. Overall, the supply - demand expectation of pure benzene is still relatively loose, and the limited support from the cost side may limit the upward space. It may fluctuate and consolidate. However, since the current valuation of pure benzene is low, future attention should be paid to device changes. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see for BZ2603. - Styrene: After the overhaul of the disproportionation device in the US Gulf ends, the blending oil demand may weaken. However, in November, the supply - demand situation of styrene has further improved. With the South Korean mixed aromatics trading, styrene has an export transaction expectation, and the port inventory has decreased. There are positive factors supporting styrene, and it will mainly fluctuate and repair in the short term. However, as the profit of styrene is repaired, the overhaul of some factories may be delayed. Coupled with the trial operation of new devices and the expected weakening of downstream EPS demand, it is expected that the upward space of styrene will be limited. In the short term, the price of EB01 may mainly fluctuate and consolidate. [10] Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Recently, the operating loads of Asian and domestic PX have decreased. However, the supply of Asian MX is abundant, and some factories rely on MX to supplement PX production, so the PX supply still remains at a relatively high level. On the demand side, the PTA price still has certain support this week. However, the spot floating price and monthly spread of PX are still weak, and the overall support from oil prices is limited. It is expected that the rebound space of PX is limited. Strategically, PX should be regarded as a short - term high - level shock. - PTA: As two PTA devices in East China are gradually under maintenance, the basis has slightly strengthened. According to the balance sheet, the supply - demand of PTA is in a tight balance in November, but the supply - demand of PTA is expected to be relatively loose from December to the first quarter of next year, and the upward drive of the basis is limited. In terms of absolute price, recently, the absolute price of PTA is relatively strong due to the support of blending oil demand and India's cancellation of BIS certification. However, the overall support from oil prices is limited, and the rebound space of PTA is still limited. Strategically, TA should be regarded as a short - term high - level shock, and TA1 - 5 should be treated as a rolling reverse spread. - Ethylene glycol: The operating load of ethylene glycol is at a high level. The arrival of overseas ethylene glycol shipments is relatively concentrated in November, and the port inventory will continue to increase recently, and the basis will weaken. In addition, the inventory accumulation amplitude of ethylene glycol from November to December is expected to be relatively high, and the upward pressure on ethylene glycol is significant. Strategically, the seller of the out - of - the - money call option with an exercise price of no less than 4100 for EG2601 should hold, and EG1 - 5 should be reversely spread at high levels. - Short - fiber: Although the spot processing margin of short - fiber has been significantly compressed recently, there is still profit at present, and the inventory pressure of short - fiber factories is not large, so the short - fiber supply remains at a high level. On the demand side, the terminal demand has seasonally weakened in November. In addition, the cancellation of India's BIS certification has certain benefits for PTA and filament, but has relatively little impact on short - fiber. Therefore, under the short - term weak supply - demand expectation and cost - side support, it is expected that the absolute price of short - fiber will be under pressure, and the processing margin still has room for compression. Strategically, the unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA; the processing margin on the disk should be shorted at high levels. - Bottle - grade polyester: In mid - November, the Huarun device has both maintenance and restart. In addition, according to Longzhong Information, the commissioning of the new device of Dongying Fuhai has been postponed, and the domestic supply has not changed much. Considering that November is in the off - season of demand and the window period between the Spring Festival stocking, the demand side has insufficient support for bottle - grade polyester. The supply - demand of bottle - grade polyester remains in a loose pattern. Therefore, the social inventory of bottle - grade polyester will probably enter the seasonal inventory accumulation channel, and PR will mainly fluctuate with the cost side. The processing margin of PR is limitedly boosted by supply - demand and will change dynamically with the raw material cost. Strategically, the unilateral strategy of PR is the same as that of PTA; the processing margin of the main contract of PR is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton. [12] Crude Oil - Overnight, affected by the news that Russia and Ukraine may restart peace talks, the geopolitical premium has declined, and the oil price has declined under pressure. However, EIA data shows that the US crude oil inventory has decreased more than expected, and the decline of the oil price has been slightly narrowed. Recently, attacks or sanctions caused by the Russia - Ukraine issue have had a short - term impact on the oil price. However, under the pressure of continuous production increase by OPEC+ and the record - high US crude oil production, the supply - demand pattern of crude oil is still weak, and the upward pressure on the oil price is significant. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support of Brent crude oil at $60 per barrel and the geopolitical dynamics between Russia and Ukraine. [14] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 have all increased, and the L15 and PP15 spreads have also increased. The spot prices of East China PP raffia and North China LLDPE have increased, while the North China LL basis has decreased significantly, and the East China pp basis has remained unchanged. The prices of some PE and PP non - standard products have remained unchanged, while the prices of some have decreased. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory and social inventory have decreased, while PP enterprise inventory has increased, and PP trader inventory has decreased. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of PE devices has increased slightly, while the weighted operating rate of PE downstream has decreased slightly. The operating rate of PP devices and powder devices has increased, and the weighted operating rate of PP downstream has increased slightly. [2] Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of MA2601 and MA2605 have decreased, and the MA15 spread has increased. The basis of Taicang has remained unchanged. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line and Henan Luoyang have increased, while the spot price of Taicang Port has decreased. The regional spreads have changed significantly. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory have all decreased. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of domestic and overseas upstream enterprises have increased, the production - sales rate of Northwest enterprises has increased, the operating rate of downstream external - procurement MTO devices has decreased, the operating rate of downstream formaldehyde has increased slightly, the operating rate of downstream acetic acid has decreased significantly, and the operating rate of downstream MTBE has increased. [4] Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in North China have remained unchanged, while the prices in East China, Central China, and South China have decreased. The closing prices of glass 2601 have decreased, and the closing price of glass 2605 has remained unchanged. The 01 basis has increased. The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest have remained unchanged. The closing prices of soda ash 2601 and 2605 have decreased, and the 01 basis has increased significantly. - **Supply**: The operating rate and weekly output of soda ash have decreased slightly, the daily melting volume of float glass has remained unchanged, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the price of 3.2mm coated glass has decreased. - **Inventory**: The inventory of glass factories has increased, the inventory of soda ash factories has increased, the inventory of soda ash delivery warehouses has decreased, and the inventory days of soda ash in glass factories have remained unchanged. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area have all decreased compared with the previous period. [7] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and 50% liquid caustic soda have remained unchanged. The market prices of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC and East China ethylene - based PVC have decreased. The prices of SHSEOS, SH2601, V2605, and V2601 have decreased, and the V basis has increased significantly. - **Export and Profit**: The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC have some data unavailable, and some data have changed. - **Supply and Profit**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry and the sample operating rate in Shandong have decreased slightly, the operating rate of PVC has decreased, the profit of externally - purchased calcium - carbide - based PVC has remained unchanged, and the profit of Northwest integrated PVC has decreased. - **Demand**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have increased or decreased. The pre - sales volume of PVC has decreased. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China and Shandong has decreased, the upstream factory - warehouse inventory of PVC has decreased, and the total social inventory of PVC has decreased. [8] Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: The price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex has increased, the full - latex basis has decreased, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber has decreased, the non - standard price difference has decreased significantly, and the prices of some raw materials have remained unchanged. The 9 - 1 spread has remained unchanged, the 1 - 5 spread has increased, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased. - **Production and Consumption**: The production of Thailand, Indonesia, and China in September has changed, the production of India has increased. The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires have changed slightly, the domestic tire production in October has decreased, the tire export volume in October has decreased, the import volume of natural rubber in September has increased, and the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in October has decreased. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE have increased, the出库 rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao has decreased, and the入库 and出库 rates of dry rubber in general trade in Qingdao have increased. [9] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha have decreased, the price of CFR Northeast Asia ethylene has remained unchanged, the price of CFR China pure benzene has increased, the pure benzene - naphtha spread and ethylene - naphtha spread have decreased,

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is influenced by long - term bullish beliefs and short - term consumption concerns, with prices oscillating between 85,000 - 88,000 yuan [1]. - The aluminum and alumina market shows short - term lack of industrial highlights, but the medium - term oscillatory upward trend remains unbroken [2]. - The zinc market is supported by exports and costs, with prices consolidating at the low level of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton, and there are opportunities for cross - market reverse arbitrage [3]. - The lead market faces significant short - term correction pressure, with support levels at 17,100 yuan/ton and the 60 - day moving average [4]. - The nickel and stainless steel market is in a downward channel, with nickel prices showing a weak trend [5]. - The tin market needs to focus on domestic capital changes, and mid - to long - term short positions can be held around 295,000 yuan [6]. - The lithium carbonate market shows a strengthening trend in futures prices, with prices expected to be in the range of 80,000 - 105,000 yuan/ton [7]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate in the short term due to limited supply and demand improvement [8]. - The polysilicon market is also expected to oscillate in the short term, with its price influenced by policy expectations and related themes [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Sentiment**: The market has a "strong belief" in long - term copper price increases, but end - of - year consumption strength is a concern [1]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: It continues the situation of "weak supply and demand", and the industry is concerned about the processing fee negotiation at the Shanghai Copper Annual Meeting. The traditional demand sectors have lower operating rates than last year, and the SMM inventory has decreased [1]. - **Overseas**: A landslide accident occurred in a copper mine in the Congo (Kinshasa), and the province has suspended all artisanal mining activities [1]. - **Trend**: The copper price oscillates between 85,000 - 88,000 yuan. Short positions at last week's high can be held around 88,000 yuan, and put options with an exercise price of 84,000 yuan can be considered [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity is 95.8 million tons, and the price is in a downward trend. The industry inventory is increasing, and it is expected to be weak until large - scale production cuts occur [2]. - **Supply**: The operating capacity is temporarily stable, and a new 240,000 - ton capacity project of Tianshan Aluminum is progressing steadily [2]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises has increased slightly [2]. - **Inventory and Policy**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased, and the spot premium and discount have shown small - amplitude fluctuations [2]. - **Trend**: The medium - term oscillatory upward trend remains unbroken, but short - term attention should be paid to capital movements [2]. Zinc - **Market**: The LME zinc has risen by 1.7%, and the Shanghai zinc main contract has risen by 1.3% [3]. - **Spot and Supply**: The export window for zinc is open, the LME inventory has increased, and the import zinc concentrate TC has declined. Domestic zinc smelters' profits are under pressure, and there are cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunities [3]. - **Consumption**: The consumption is affected by environmental protection and high prices, and the domestic consumption expectation is average [3]. - **Trend**: The zinc price is expected to consolidate at the low level of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton, and there are opportunities for cross - market reverse arbitrage [3]. Lead - **Market**: The LME lead inventory has increased sharply, and the price has risen and then fallen. The Shanghai lead has a weak fundamental turn - weak expectation [4]. - **Spot and Supply**: The overseas lead concentrate is being consumed, and the domestic lead concentrate supply is tight. The production of primary and secondary lead has different trends, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [4]. - **Consumption**: The consumption is expected to weaken, and the short - term correction pressure is increasing [4]. - **Trend**: The Shanghai lead faces significant short - term correction pressure, with support at 17,100 yuan/ton and the 60 - day moving average [4]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market**: The Shanghai nickel and stainless steel prices have declined, and the market trading is weak [5]. - **Macro and Demand**: The inclusion of stainless steel in the list by the UK Department of Commerce has suppressed the demand expectation, and the market remains weak [5]. - **Spot and Supply**: The premiums of different nickel products vary, and the inventories of nickel and stainless steel have increased [5]. - **Trend**: The nickel price is in a weak trend, with the center of gravity shifting downward [5]. Tin - **Market**: The Shanghai tin has increased significantly, and the multi - empty game is intense due to uncertain supply in the short and long terms [6]. - **Supply**: The tin exports from Indonesia have decreased in October, and the African concentrate exports may be affected by the rainy season. The market is uncertain about the long - term supply [6]. - **Consumption**: The demand in traditional and photovoltaic fields at the end of the year is average, and the inventory has increased [6]. - **Trend**: Attention should be paid to domestic capital changes, and mid - to long - term short positions can be held around 295,000 yuan [6]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures**: The price has risen again, and the trading is active [7]. - **Spot**: The spot price of Shanghai lithium carbonate has continued to rise, and the production capacity of lithium salt plants has been fully released [7]. - **Demand**: The production of downstream material plants is active, and the order demand is strong [7]. - **Supply**: The total market inventory has decreased, with different trends in smelter, downstream, and trading inventories [7]. - **Trend**: The futures price is strengthening, and the price range is expected to be 80,000 - 105,000 yuan/ton [7]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The price has declined, and the market trading is average [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is constrained by the dry season in the southwest, and the demand in the polysilicon and organic silicon industries is expected to decline. The possibility of production cuts by monomer plants is uncertain [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory has decreased [8]. - **Trend**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term due to limited supply and demand improvement [8]. Polysilicon - **Futures**: The price has rebounded after reaching a high, and the market sentiment is affected by policy expectations [9]. - **Spot**: The spot price has continued to rise, and the production capacity of lithium salt plants has been fully released [9]. - **Demand**: The demand has declined, and the price has been under pressure. The subsequent price increase by silicon wafer enterprises is expected [9]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory has increased [9]. - **Trend**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with its price influenced by policy expectations and related themes [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the supply, demand, cost, profit, price, and spread of logs. It indicates that the supply - side pressure is decreasing, the demand remains weak with the approaching off - season and wood blue - stain period. The price is under pressure, and the market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance in the future [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Log Overview - **Supply - side**: In September 2025, the number of arriving ships was 16, and the arrival volume was 53.1 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs was about 200.13 million cubic meters, a 16.01% month - on - month increase. It is expected that the subsequent arrival will remain stable, and the supply - side pressure will decrease [7]. - **Demand and Inventory - side**: The weekly shipment volume and apparent demand show no significant improvement. The demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to fluctuate and adjust due to the weak demand despite the decrease in arrivals this week [9]. - **Price and Spread**: The outer - market quotation has a slight adjustment, the spot price is under pressure, and the wood - block price is stable. The spread is relatively stable, and the basis has certain support [11][13]. - **Cost and Profit**: The import cost of logs is expected to decline, and the import profit is decreasing [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The spot market price is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of the futures market are weakly oscillating, and it is expected to be under pressure in the short term [17]. 3.2 Part 2: Log Balance Sheet The report presents the weekly balance sheet of logs from June 6, 2025, to November 7, 2025, including arrival numbers, arrival volumes, daily shipment volumes, apparent demand, inventory by region and species, and the supply - demand difference [19]. 3.3 Part 3: Log Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: It includes the shipment volume of New Zealand logs, log imports, and imports by species [25][27][30]. - **Demand - side**: It involves the daily shipment volume of logs, the real - estate market, and downstream analysis such as wood - block price, profit, and downstream substitutes [34][36][41]. - **Inventory - side**: It includes inventory summaries, inventory by species, and inventory by region [58][60][66]. 3.4 Part 4: Cost and Profit - **Log Import Cost and Profit**: Analyzes the import cost and profit of logs [72]. - **Log Delivery Profit**: Analyzes the delivery profit of logs [77]. 3.5 Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis - **Log Outer - market Quotation**: Analyzes the outer - market quotation of logs [82]. - **Seasonality of Radiation Pine and Spruce Prices**: Presents the seasonal price trends of radiation pine and spruce [85]. - **Seasonality of Radiation Pine and Spruce Spreads**: Analyzes the seasonal spread trends of radiation pine and spruce [98]. - **Basis between Radiation Pine and LG**: Analyzes the basis between radiation pine and LG [104]. - **Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread of LG Main Contracts**: Presents the seasonal chart and inter - month spread of LG main contracts [106].