Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market showed mixed results with significant movements in various sectors, including a rise in lumber and coking coal prices by over 2%, while egg prices fell by over 4% [1][2][4] - The China Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1424.34 points, a slight increase of 0.01% from the previous trading day [1] Lumber Market Insights - Lumber prices surged by 2.81% due to optimistic expectations for the traditional consumption peak season in September and October, alongside increased foreign pricing [2] - The inventory levels of imported New Zealand lumber remained stable, but a significant increase in incoming shipments was noted, with 14 vessels expected, a 133% week-on-week increase [2] Precious Metals Performance - Gold and silver prices rebounded by over 1% following a significant downward revision of U.S. non-farm employment data, raising concerns about the U.S. labor market and economic conditions [3] - The market anticipates a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which could further support precious metal prices in the long term [3] Egg Market Dynamics - Egg futures experienced a notable decline of over 4%, attributed to an early surge in spot prices and insufficient demand [4] - The upcoming seasonal demand period is expected to influence prices, with potential for a rebound in September contracts as the market prepares for holiday stocking [4] Industrial Silicon Trends - Industrial silicon prices fell by over 3%, primarily due to increased production from small to medium-sized enterprises in the Southwest region [5] - The demand for industrial silicon remains weak across its main downstream sectors, including organic silicon and polysilicon, with overall demand showing a downward trend [5] Energy Sector Developments - OPEC+ announced a significant increase in production, which has pressured international oil prices and led to declines in related energy and chemical products [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical market has been affected by numerous non - fundamental factors recently. As August approaches, fundamentals will become the dominant factor. It is advisable for investors to adopt a light - position hedging strategy. The overall futures prices of energy and chemical products will continue to fluctuate, and basis and inventory can be used as benchmarks for hedging [3]. - For different varieties: - Crude oil: Geopolitical factors support prices, but there is supply pressure. The high refinery operations in China and the US and strong demand provide short - term support. Oil prices will oscillate, and geopolitical risks should be monitored [9]. - Asphalt: Spot prices are falling, and futures prices fluctuate around 3600 yuan/ton. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline [9][10]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: There is significant downward pressure on prices due to increased supply and reduced demand. It will oscillate weakly [10][11]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It follows the oscillation of crude oil prices. Although there are negative factors, the current low valuation means it will fluctuate with crude oil [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil** - Price: Overnight prices rose. - Main logic: The risk of increased US sanctions on Russian oil has increased. There is supply pressure from OPEC +'s production increase, but high refinery operations in China and the US and strong demand provide support. - Outlook: The strong reality of high refinery operations and the weak expectation of supply pressure will balance each other, leading to price oscillation. Geopolitical risks should be watched [9]. - **Asphalt** - Price: The main futures contract closed at 3602 yuan/ton, with spot prices in different regions varying. - Main logic: OPEC +'s production increase will put pressure on the cracking spread. The accumulation of floating storage and supply pressure on raw materials will affect futures prices. Demand is not strong enough for a bull market. - Outlook: The absolute price is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline [9][10]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil** - Price: The main contract closed at 2879 yuan/ton. - Main logic: OPEC +'s possible over - production, falling natural gas prices, and reduced power generation demand will lead to increased supply and decreased demand. - Outlook: It will oscillate weakly [10][11]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil** - Price: The main contract closed at 3588 yuan/ton. - Main logic: It follows crude oil prices. There are negative factors such as reduced shipping demand, but the low valuation means it will fluctuate with crude oil. - Outlook: It will follow the oscillation of crude oil prices [12]. - **PX** - Price: On July 28, CFR China Taiwan was 851 (- 23) dollars/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of commodity sentiment led to price drops, but the increase in crude oil prices at night provided cost support. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [13]. - **PTA** - Price: On July 28, the spot price was 4845 (- 55) yuan/ton. - Main logic: Weak polyester yarn sales, cooling commodity sentiment, but cost support remains. - Outlook: It will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the implementation of major plant maintenance in early August [14]. - **Pure Benzene** - Price: On July 28, the 2603 contract closed at 6241 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The improvement in fundamentals was limited by inventory pressure. - Outlook: The market may enter an oscillation period, and attention should be paid to high - level statements and Fed data [15]. - **Styrene** - Price: On July 28, the East China spot price was 7340 (- 160) yuan/ton. - Main logic: There is a weakening expectation in supply and demand, and inventory is accumulating. - Outlook: It will oscillate, and attention should be paid to commodity sentiment [16][17]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)** - Price: On July 28, the DCE main contract 2509 closed at 4436 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of commodity sentiment and typhoon - induced inventory reduction. However, supply is expected to increase in August and September. - Outlook: Inventory may reach an inflection point [17][18]. - **Short - fiber** - Price: On July 28, the PF2509 contract closed at 6482 yuan/ton. - Main logic: Cooling sentiment and falling upstream raw material prices. Supply - demand drivers are limited. - Outlook: Processing fees will remain stable, and prices will follow raw materials [18][19]. - **Bottle - chip** - Price: On July 28, the East China market price dropped to 6035 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of "anti - involution" sentiment and falling upstream raw material prices. Supply - demand drivers are limited. - Outlook: Processing fees have support, and prices will follow raw materials [20][21]. - **Methanol** - Price: On July 28, the Taicang spot price was 2385 (- 90) yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of commodity sentiment and the drag from coal prices. There is limited impact from policies, and the upper price limit is restricted by downstream feedback. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [22]. - **Urea** - Price: On July 22, the factory - warehouse and market low prices were 1780 (+ 20) and 1830 (+ 20) yuan/ton respectively. - Main logic: Strong supply and weak demand. Market sentiment temporarily boosts prices, but the fundamental support is limited. - Outlook: It will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the return to fundamentals [22]. - **LLDPE (Plastic)** - Price: On July 28, the spot price was 7300 (- 50) yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of commodity sentiment, supply pressure, and weak demand in the off - season. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [25]. - **PP** - Price: On July 28, the East China PP拉丝 price was 7100 (- 40) yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of macro - level sentiment, supply pressure, and weak demand. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [26][27]. - **PL** - Price: On July 28, the Shandong low - end price was 6170 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The short - term decline in commodity sentiment and the influence of PP and methanol fluctuations. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [27]. - **PVC** - Price: On July 28, the East China calcium - carbide - based PVC price was 5150 (- 90) yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of market sentiment and fundamental pressure, with an expected increase in production and cost. - Outlook: It will oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy details [29]. - **Caustic Soda** - Price: On July 28, the Shandong 32% caustic soda price was 2594 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of market sentiment, low inventory in Shandong, and cost support. - Outlook: The downward price space is limited, and attention should be paid to policy orientation [29]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.8 with a change of 0.02, and PX having various inter - period spreads with corresponding changes [31]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has its own basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, asphalt's basis is 206 with a change of 41, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82180 [32]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also specific values and changes for inter - variety spreads, like 1 - month PP - 3MA being - 340 with a change of 185 [33]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring** - Although specific content is not fully presented, it is expected to involve detailed monitoring of the basis and spreads of various chemical products such as methanol, urea, etc. [34][46][57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the recent production arrangement of refineries has increased, raising supply pressure. Although the peak season stimulates demand recovery, the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. The inventory continues to be depleted, and the weakening of crude oil weakens the cost support in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2509 fluctuating in the range of 3634 - 3680 [7][9] - The cost side indicates that the loss of asphalt processing has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has also increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In July 2025, the domestic total planned asphalt production is 2539000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 34.2761%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.359 percentage points. The refineries have increased production recently, raising supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7] - **Demand**: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 32.8%, the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, the modified asphalt开工率 is 14.5509%, the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 25%, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 28%. Except for a slight increase in the modified asphalt开工率, the others are either flat or decreased [7] - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 524.18 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7.60%. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit is 875.78 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4.48%. The loss of asphalt processing has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8] - **Expectation**: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2509 fluctuating in the range of 3634 - 3680 [9] - **Other Factors**: On July 21, the Shandong spot price is 3855 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 198 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The social inventory is 1319000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.53%. The in - plant inventory is 761000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.26%. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 210000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 22.22% [10] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Base - price Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt base - prices from 2020 to 2025 [19][20] - **Spread Analysis**: It includes the spread trends of the main contracts (such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, the crude oil cracking spread, and the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [22][25][28][32] 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [37][40] - **Supply - side Analysis**: It involves aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Marrow crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend, local refinery asphalt production,开工率, and maintenance loss volume estimation [44][46][49] - **Inventory Analysis**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and in - plant inventory inventory ratio [64][68][71] - **Import and Export Situation**: It presents the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt [74][77][79] - **Demand - side Analysis**: It covers petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, downstream machinery demand), and asphalt开工率 (by type) [80][83][86] - **Supply - demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to July 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [104][105]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows an increase in production by refineries, leading to increased supply pressure. The demand during the peak season has not recovered as expected and remains sluggish. Inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support from crude oil is weakening in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3603 - 3653 [8][10]. - The fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bullish, the inventory situation is complex (social inventory is decreasing, factory inventory is increasing, and port inventory is increasing), the disk is neutral, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions [8][11]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the strengthened expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China is 2539000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 33.9166%, a month - on - month increase of 0.779 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises is 261200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.91%. The output of sample enterprises is 566000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices is 582000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.51%. Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure [8]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 32.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of modified asphalt is 14.383%, a month - on - month increase of 0.34 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 25%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 30%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 460.93 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 11.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 838.2543 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.69%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. Crude oil has weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short - term [9]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3603 - 3653 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Base Price**: On July 17, the spot price in Shandong was 3820 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 192 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 1312000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45%. Factory inventory is 763000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%. Port diluted asphalt inventory is 27000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.75% [11]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [11]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net long, with an increase in long positions [11]. 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: The asphalt processing profit has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased [9]. - **Supply Side**: - **Shipment Volume**: The weekly shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises shows certain trends over time [46][47]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The domestic diluted asphalt port inventory has changed over time [48][49]. - **Production**: The weekly and monthly production of asphalt shows different trends in different years [52]. - **Price and Production of Venezuelan Crude Oil**: The price of Merey crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil have shown trends over time [55][57]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The production of local refinery asphalt has changed over time [58][59]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt has shown trends over time [61][62]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss**: The estimated maintenance loss of asphalt has shown trends over time [63][64]. - **Inventory**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The exchange warehouse receipts (including total, social inventory, and factory inventory) have changed over time [66][69]. - **Social and Factory Inventory**: The social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt have shown trends over time [70][71]. - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The factory inventory inventory ratio has shown trends over time [73][74]. - **Import and Export**: The import and export volume of asphalt has shown trends over time, and the import price difference of South Korean asphalt has also changed [76][77][80]. - **Demand Side**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The petroleum coke production has shown trends over time [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The apparent consumption of asphalt has shown trends over time [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand**: The downstream demand, including highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, and downstream machinery demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales), has shown trends over time [88][93][95]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate**: The construction rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, asphalt by use, and downstream construction (such as shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane) have shown trends over time [97][100][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet shows the monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand of asphalt from January 2024 to July 2025 [106][107].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is rated as 1, indicating a "偏强" (relatively strong) outlook [4][5]. 2) Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market is expected to experience short - term strong and volatile trends. The impact of liquid chlorine on cost and supply is crucial. If substantial production cuts or load reductions occur, a bullish view can be taken [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price is 2531, the cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price in Shandong is 810, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 123, and the base difference is provided on July 9, 2025 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - Based on the Shandong region, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda closed at 810 yuan/ton today, with a month - on - month increase of 2.33%. The purchase price of liquid caustic soda by major downstream enterprises has been raised, and due to the subsidy of liquid chlorine, the operating load of regional enterprises has changed, resulting in a decrease in supply and an increase in the price of liquid caustic soda [2]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The recent rebound in caustic soda futures prices is mainly due to the faster - than - expected decline in liquid chlorine prices, increasing the possibility of passive production cuts in caustic soda. The short - term spot price rebound is due to low prices stimulating phased replenishment demand. - In July, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda decreased significantly compared to June, with maintenance mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China. The previously shut - down plants in Shandong will gradually restart. The new production capacity from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure remains high. - On the demand side, non - aluminum demand support is weak, and the caustic soda inventory of alumina is high, but the export direction provides good support, and the willingness to replenish at low prices is strong. - In terms of cost, although the electricity price continued to decline in July, the rapid decline of liquid chlorine led to an increase in caustic soda costs. Overall, due to the impact of liquid chlorine, the far - month valuation is being repaired. The key is to focus on the impact of liquid chlorine on caustic soda supply. [3]

Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Recent short - term drivers for caustic soda have significantly slowed down, and the futures price has rebounded due to the faster - than - expected decline in liquid chlorine prices. The possibility of passive production cuts in caustic soda caused by liquid chlorine disturbances in the future has increased. In the short term, the spot price has rebounded due to low prices stimulating the market's phased replenishment demand, but the sustainability of replenishment may be limited [3]. - In July, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda has decreased significantly compared to June, with maintenance mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China. The previously maintained units in Shandong will gradually restart. The new production capacity of caustic soda from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure remains high [3]. - On the demand side, the support from non - aluminum demand is weak, and the alumina inventory of caustic soda is high, but the export direction provides good support, and the willingness to replenish at low prices is strong. Although the electricity price continued to decline in July, the rapid decline in liquid chlorine has led to an increase in the cost of caustic soda [3]. - Affected by liquid chlorine, the far - month valuation is repaired under the condition of rising costs. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the impact of liquid chlorine on the supply of caustic soda. If there are substantial production cuts or load reductions, a bullish view can be taken [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On July 7, 2025, the futures price of the 09 contract was 2380, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 770, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong was converted to the futures price of 2406, and the basis was 26 [1]. Spot News - On July 7, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine at Shandong Xinfa decreased by 150, with an ex - factory price of - 450 yuan, and the liquid chlorine plan for the next day was reported [2]. Market Condition Analysis - The short - term drivers for caustic soda have slowed down, and the futures price has rebounded. The short - term spot price has rebounded, but the replenishment may not be sustainable. The supply pressure is high, the non - aluminum demand support is weak, the alumina inventory is high, the export support is good, and the cost has increased due to the decline in liquid chlorine [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, with the range of trend intensity values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views For Caustic Soda - Recently, the short - driving force for caustic soda has significantly slowed down, and the futures price has rebounded due to the faster - than - expected price drop of liquid chlorine. There is an increasing possibility of passive production cuts in caustic soda caused by liquid chlorine disturbances in the future. The short - term spot price has rebounded due to low prices stimulating the market's phased replenishment demand, but the sustainability may be limited [5]. - From a fundamental perspective, the overhaul capacity of caustic soda in July has decreased significantly compared to June. The overhauls in July are mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China, and the previously overhauled units in Shandong will gradually restart. Meanwhile, the new production capacity of caustic soda from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure remains high. On the demand side, the non - aluminum demand support is weak, and the alumina's caustic soda inventory is high, but the export direction has good support, with a strong willingness to replenish at low prices. In terms of cost, although the electricity price continued to decline in July, the rapid decline of liquid chlorine led to an increase in the cost of caustic soda [5]. - In summary, affected by liquid chlorine, the far - month valuation has been repaired under the condition of increased costs, but the space for continuous rebound may be limited. In the later stage, focus on the transmission impact of liquid chlorine on caustic soda supply. If there are substantial production cuts or load reductions, it can be treated bullishly [5]. - Strategy: Weiqiao slightly increased the price, and the market shifted from an 8 - 10 inverse spread to a positive spread, but considering the off - season demand and warehouse receipt factors, the space will be limited. If there are substantial production cuts on the supply side in the future, it is beneficial for the peak - season contracts. A 10 - 1 positive spread or selling put options can be considered [5]. For PVC - From a fundamental perspective, the profit of the current chlor - alkali integration in the Northwest is gradually declining, but there is still a small profit. Looking at the second half of the year, the driving force for production cuts on the supply side is insufficient, and the structure of high production and high inventory of PVC is difficult to ease. Therefore, the market will still short the chlor - alkali profit in the later stage, but the short sentiment has weakened due to the rectification of the involution [6]. - The high - production structure is difficult to change in the short term: The overhaul volume of PVC is lower than that in the same period of 2023, and the high - production pattern continues. On the one hand, the chlor - alkali cost has declined. On the other hand, the demand for caustic soda in 2025 has good support, maintaining relatively high profits. The chlor - alkali industry chain compensates for chlorine with alkali, which also increases the difficulty of large - scale production cuts of PVC due to losses. In addition, there will still be a lot of production capacity put into operation in the future, especially in June - July, facing the release of new production capacity, with an expected production of 1.1 million tons. The high - production pattern is difficult to change in the short term [6]. - The pressure of high inventory persists, and the export demand can only relieve it periodically: In 2025, the competition pressure in the PVC export market has increased. Exports will still be affected by India's anti - dumping duty increase and BIS certification. India's PVC import BIS policy may be postponed for 6 months, and the Indian Trade Remedy Authority may make a final decision on the anti - dumping investigation of imported PVC in the first half of July. Therefore, the sustainability of PVC exports in the later stage remains to be observed. In terms of domestic demand, the demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak year - on - year, and enterprises' willingness to stock up is low [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The price of the cheapest deliverable caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,406 yuan/ton [9]. - The 09 basis of caustic soda has weakened, and the 8 - 10 month spread has strengthened [18]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of caustic soda was 1.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 51.8%. Among them, the cumulative export to Indonesia from January to May was 620,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91.4%. It is expected that the export demand for caustic soda will continue to be good in the second half of the year, but attention should be paid to the stocking rhythm of traders and downstream customers. It is estimated that the export of caustic soda in 2025 will increase by at least 30% year - on - year, and the annual export may exceed 4 million tons [22]. - The export support for high - concentration caustic soda will be reflected in the price difference between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda. The willingness to replenish stocks in the export direction at FOB of 380 - 390 US dollars is strong [26]. - The spot price has continued to decline, and the stocking demand of traders in South China is weak, resulting in limited expansion of the arbitrage space [31]. - The price difference between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda is lower than the evaporation cost, which is negative for caustic soda [35]. 2. Caustic Soda Supply - The market structure shows a decline in production and inventory. This week, the domestic caustic soda capacity utilization rate was 80.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 2% [38]. - The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 384,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 1.58% and a year - on - year increase of 2.45%. This week, the storage - capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in the country was 22.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.72%. Except for the storage - capacity ratios in North China, Northeast China, and South China showing a downward trend, the storage - capacity ratios in the Northwest, Central China, East China, and Southwest China increased week - on - week [40]. - Pay attention to the overhaul scale from July to August. At the beginning of July, the overhaul capacity of large factories in Shandong was resumed [42]. - In 2025, there will still be a lot of production capacity for caustic soda to be put into operation, but considering the continuous losses of chlorine - consuming downstream industries, especially PVC, the overall production capacity expansion may be less than expected. The capacity increase may be about 2%. Pay attention to the production capacity put into operation by Tianjin Bohua, Gansu Yaowang, and Qingdao Bay Chemical from June to July [43][46]. - Liquid chlorine is stable, the price of caustic soda is falling, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in the past three years [47]. - Among the chlorine - consuming downstream industries, the operating rate of propylene oxide has rebounded, but the profit is still at a low level; the operating rate of epichlorohydrin has declined, and the glycerol - method profit is in a loss state; the operating rates of dichloromethane and trichloromethane have decreased month - on - month [52][58][63]. 3. Caustic Soda Demand - The operating rate of alumina has increased month - on - month, the inventory has increased, and the profit has declined. The alumina device has resumed production, and the output has increased. The key in the second half of the year is whether the alumina production capacity put into operation can drive a new round of demand expansion. Pay attention to the production - capacity put - into - operation time of Weiqiao's 1 million tons, Wenfeng's third - line 1.6 million tons, and Guangxi Guangtou's 1 million tons [69][72][73]. - The pulp industry's production capacity continues to expand, but it is in the off - season of terminal demand. The operating rate of the finished - paper industry is lower than the same period last year [74][84]. - The operating rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing have declined, and the short - term demand is weak [85]. - The operating rate of the water - treatment industry has decreased month - on - month, while the operating rate of the ternary precursor industry is stable [89][91]. - The caustic soda balance sheet shows different supply - demand differences under different demand scenarios and corresponding operating rates [96]. 4. PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis has strengthened, and the 9 - 1 month spread has fluctuated weakly [99]. 5. PVC Supply and Demand - The operating rate of PVC has decreased month - on - month but has not reached the level of production cuts in 2023. There will be more overhauls in the Northwest from July to August in 2025 [104][106]. - Currently, there is new production capacity in the PVC industry. By 2025, 2.1 million tons of production capacity will be put into operation, with more concentrated production - capacity releases in the second half of the year. Most of the ethylene - method production - capacity releases have a relatively high certainty. There will be concentrated production - capacity releases of PVC from June to July, with an expected 1.1 million tons [107]. - The profit of the integrated devices in the Northwest is acceptable. In 2025, special attention should be paid to the profit of caustic soda. The chlor - alkali industry chain's practice of compensating for chlorine with alkali will be a long - term trend, which increases the difficulty of large - scale production cuts of PVC due to losses. The decline in coal prices has led to a decrease in costs, and the chlor - alkali integrated devices in the Northwest have always had profits in the first half of the year [109][112]. - PVC production enterprises have slightly reduced their inventory, while the social inventory has increased. The operating rate of PVC downstream industries has decreased month - on - month and is weaker than the same period last year [114][118]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of PVC was 1.6985 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 56.07%. Among them, the export to India was 763,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 31.6%. India is still the most important destination for China's PVC exports. However, the later PVC exports may be affected by policies. The Indian Trade Remedy Authority may make a final decision on the anti - dumping investigation of imported PVC in the first half of July, so the sustainability of PVC exports in the later stage remains to be observed [125]. - The number of PVC warehouse receipts has not increased significantly [127].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - PX cost support is weak, and attention should be paid to the possible increase in supply pressure due to high processing fees of PTA [1]. - The PTA downstream polyester operating rate is at a high level, the terminal textile trading has warmed up, and the demand side has rebounded. However, the marginal weakening of PX cost support and high PTA processing fees may lead to continued high operating loads, and attention should be paid to the supply - side recovery pressure [2]. - The cost decline and high short - fiber inventory will continue the weak pattern of the industrial chain, while the low inventory of filament may provide phased support. The risk of weakening demand in the traditional textile off - season needs to be vigilant [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary PTA&PX - On June 30, the PX main contract closed at 6,796.0 yuan/ton, up 0.65% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 40.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,798.0 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 222.0 yuan/ton [2]. - On the cost side, on June 30, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.34 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 65.07 US dollars/barrel. On the demand side, on June 30, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 663.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average trading volume was 620.33 million meters [2]. - PX: The cost side is affected by the narrow - range oscillation trend of international crude oil prices, and the support it can provide is relatively limited. The expected commissioning of new devices in Asia may bring supply pressure, and the limited repair space of downstream PTA processing fees may suppress the raw material procurement enthusiasm. It is expected that the PX price will maintain an oscillatory pattern [2]. - PTA: The downstream polyester operating rate of PTA is at a high level, the terminal textile trading has warmed up, and the demand side has rebounded. The strengthening of the basis reflects the tightness of spot goods. The marginal weakening of PX cost support and high PTA processing fees may lead to continued high operating loads, and attention should be paid to the supply - side recovery pressure [2]. Polyester - On June 30, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,542.0 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,730.0 yuan/ton, down 10.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 188.0 yuan/ton [3]. - On the supply side, the PX futures price oscillated downward from 7,076 yuan/ton on June 20 to 6,796 yuan/ton on June 30, and the PTA futures main contract also fell from 4,978 yuan/ton to 4,798 yuan/ton during the same period, and the raw material side declined under pressure [3]. - On the demand side, the MA15 trading volume of Light Textile City decreased continuously from 644.4 million meters on June 20 to 609.4 million meters on June 27 and then rebounded slightly, but it was still lower than the level at the beginning of the month, reflecting the lack of sustainability of terminal demand [3]. - In terms of inventory, the inventories of polyester filament FDY/POY/DTY were 18.9/17.2/25.3 days respectively, all lower than the five - year average values of 22.19/20.40/28.42 days, while the inventory of polyester short - fiber was 7.77 days, significantly higher than the five - year average of 4.96 days, indicating that the filament maintained a de - stocking trend, but the short - fiber had significant inventory accumulation pressure [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price was 6,796 yuan/ton on June 30, up 0.65% from June 27; the main contract trading volume was 295,108 lots, up 29.61%; the main contract position was 115,158 lots, up 3.16% [4]. - PX spot: The CFR price at the main port in China was 866.67 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in South Korea was 850 US dollars/ton, up 0.95% [4]. - PTA futures: The main contract price was 4,798 yuan/ton on June 30, up 0.42% from June 27; the main contract trading volume was 1,088,784 lots, up 36.27%; the main contract position was 1,085,040 lots, down 0.81% [4]. - PTA spot: The CFR price at the main port in China was 653 US dollars/ton, unchanged [4]. - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price was 6,542 yuan/ton on June 30, up 0.25% from June 27; the main contract trading volume was 132,190 lots, up 0.05%; the main contract position was 102,404 lots, down 12.71% [4]. - Short - fiber spot: The mainstream price in the East China market was 6,730 yuan/ton, down 0.15% [4]. - Other prices: The prices of some products such as Brent crude oil, US crude oil, CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY had different changes [4]. - Processing spreads: The processing spreads of naphtha, PX, PTA, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester short - fiber, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY also had different changes [5]. - Light Textile City trading volume: The total trading volume on June 30 was 663 million meters, down 16.29% from June 27; the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 533 million meters, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 129 million meters [5]. - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [5]. - Inventory days: The inventory days of polyester short - fiber, polyester POY, polyester FDY, and polyester DTY had different changes [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Macro Dynamics - On June 30, Russia launched the largest - scale air strike on Ukraine since the conflict, and a Ukrainian F - 16 fighter jet crashed [6]. - On June 30, the US consumer spending in May unexpectedly decreased by 0.1%, lower than the market - expected increase of 0.1%, inflation rose moderately, the annual rate of the US core PCE price index in May was 2.7%, higher than the expected 2.6%, reaching a new high since February 2025; the monthly rate of the US core PCE price index in May was 0.2%, and the market expected it to remain flat at 0.1%, and traders increased their bets that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates three times in 2025 [6]. - On June 30, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari expected two interest - rate cuts starting from September, and the impact of tariffs might lead to a suspension of interest - rate cuts [6]. - On June 30, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that from January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in the country was 2720.43 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [6]. - On June 27, some Fed officials made statements about interest - rate cuts [6]. Supply - Demand - Demand - On June 30, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 663.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 16.29%, the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 533.0 million meters, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 129.0 million meters [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the main futures and basis of PX, PTA, and short - fiber, PX and PTA spot prices, PX capacity utilization rate, PTA and short - fiber futures monthly spreads, PTA processing profit, industrial chain load rate, polyester short - fiber and filament production and sales situations, Light Textile City trading volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [9][11][13][15][16][20][23][24][25][26][27] 3.5 Appendix - The analysis of the future price trends of PX and PTA shows that PX may maintain or rise if the upstream crude oil is stable or rising, and PTA may also have an upward trend due to large basis and increasing demand. However, the possible fluctuations in crude oil prices and the decline in polyester operating rate are risk factors [35][36]

Market Review - The main contract for stainless steel closed at 12,635 CNY/ton, with a daily increase of 0.76% (+95 CNY), and a single position of 224,900 lots, which is a decrease of 48,262 lots compared to the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - A stainless steel plant in East China has entered a regular maintenance period until June 30, which is expected to impact the production of 300 series stainless steel by nearly 10,000 tons [2] - As of June 27, the benchmark price for stainless steel plates was 11,764.29 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 3.63% compared to the beginning of the month (12,207.14 CNY/ton). On June 26, the Shanghai Futures Exchange had 112,446 tons of stainless steel warehouse receipts, a decrease of 421 tons from the previous trading day [3] Institutional Perspectives - According to Ruida Futures, the implementation of Indonesia's PNBP policy has increased the cost of nickel resource supply. The Philippines plans to implement a nickel ore export ban starting June 2025, which will exacerbate raw material disruptions. The production capacity of Indonesian nickel iron is increasing, leading to a significant rebound in output, while nickel iron prices have recently dropped, reducing support for raw material costs. Steel mills are maintaining normal production but are reducing the output of the severely loss-making 300 series stainless steel due to cost pressures, although total output remains at historically high levels, indicating ongoing supply pressure. Demand is entering a traditional off-season, with increased macro market uncertainty and export demand pressure, while downstream performance remains cautious. Domestic inventory reduction is not performing well. On the technical side, the reduction in positions has weakened short positions, breaking through the MA10 pressure. The recommendation is to observe for the time being [4] - New Lake Futures reported that a market rumor indicated Qingshan plans to reduce production by about 150,000 tons in July, primarily affecting the 300 series. This news has significantly boosted market sentiment, leading to a strong rebound in stainless steel prices. However, due to overall weak consumption of stainless steel, the rebound is expected to be limited [4]