Core Viewpoint - The recent sell-off in U.S. Treasuries reflects a shift in market expectations towards optimism regarding economic growth [1] Group 1 - FHN Financial macro strategist Will Compernolle indicates that the sell-off in U.S. Treasuries is primarily driven by improved economic growth expectations [1] - There is evidence of resilience in economic hard data, suggesting that previous concerns about a potential crisis are diminishing [1] - The likelihood of the previously feared "doomsday scenario" occurring has significantly decreased, providing relief to the market [1]

Group 1 - The World Gold Council reported a global outflow of 19.1 tons from gold ETFs, valued at $1.83 billion, primarily driven by North American funds responding to changing tariff threats [1] - North American listed funds experienced an outflow of 15.6 tons of gold, worth $1.5 billion, as investor risk appetite improved due to better-than-expected temporary tariff relief between the US and China [1] - The report warns that the current neutral monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve may pose headwinds for gold in the summer, although inflation concerns and unsustainable debt levels could mitigate these risks [1] Group 2 - European-listed ETFs saw a modest inflow of 1.6 tons, valued at $224 million, with France leading the inflow as investors sought protection amid economic slowdown and geopolitical uncertainties [2] - In Asia, there was a notable outflow of 4.8 tons from gold ETFs, valued at $489 million, marking the first outflow since November 2024, following a record demand in April [3] - The World Gold Council remains optimistic about gold's potential for appreciation, citing that inflation has not significantly increased due to global trade tensions and rising tariffs [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-06-06 股市博弈情绪渐起，债市情绪回暖 股指期货：博弈情绪渐起，但隐忧不可忽视 股指期权：微暖情绪延续，续持备兑 国债期货：央⾏提前公告买断式逆回购操作 股指期货：博弈情绪渐起，但隐忧不可忽视。周四沪指高开回升， 小幅放量1400亿元。市场情绪有所提振，午后博弈渐浓，传周五中美元首 将通话讨论关税，提升关税缓和预期，通信、电子、计算机等高弹性行业 领涨，美容护理、纺服、农林牧渔等防御板块领跌。另一方面，隐忧渐 起，港股新消费出现回调，单边下跌，或是高拥挤开始释放，联动A股美 容护理等映射下跌。同时，深贴水仍然维持，微盘股指数、中证2000创阶 段新高。后市若关税有所进展，资金高拥挤环境下，或交易利空，或交易 利多出尽，导致热点退潮，易触发小微盘超额下降，倒逼中性策略降仓， 引发资金踩踏。主线缺乏，并谨防资金抢跑量化交易拥挤，故操作上， 维持空仓观望。 股指期权：微暖情绪延续，续持备兑。昨日标的市场延续前一日上 涨，仍然保持微暖情绪。值得注意的是，各品种偏度指数普遍回落，资金 防御情绪似乎有所缓和，但大方向上还是以谨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment in May 2025 shows a mixed performance across various asset classes, with a notable recovery in commodities and a positive response from developed markets to eased trade tensions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Asset Performance - In May 2025, major asset performances ranked as follows: Nasdaq > Nikkei > Hang Seng > LME Copper Futures > Euro Stoxx > ChiNext > CSI 300 > Hang Seng Tech > Brent Oil > 0 > China Bonds > US Dollar > Spot Gold > Sci-Tech 50 > South China Composite, with commodities showing upward trends since June [1][14]. - Developed markets outperformed emerging markets, with US tech stocks (TAMAMA index) rising by 11.4% and the DAX and Nikkei indices increasing by over 5% [2][18]. - The CRB index rose by 7.94% from the end of May to June 3, indicating a rebound in commodity prices [2][17]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic indicators for May 2025 suggest a mild recovery in the domestic economy, with the BCI, EPMI, and manufacturing PMI slightly better than previous values [4][66]. - The high-frequency simulation model estimates the actual GDP monthly index for May at 5.19%, projecting a second-quarter GDP of around 5.2% [4][71]. - The nominal GDP growth rate is expected to be around 4.06%, indicating a need for improved production capacity and policy transmission [4][93]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market is currently influenced by three main themes: the "tariff theme," which reflects eased tariff risks; the "odds theme," indicating a stabilization of market lower limits; and the "structural certainty theme," focusing on stable sectors and financial assets [3][59]. - The domestic stock market continues to exhibit a "dumbbell" structure, with small and micro-cap stocks and large-cap value styles performing well [2][29]. - Over 80% of the Shenwan first-level industries recorded positive returns in May, with finance and consumption leading the performance [2][39]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Future drivers for equity assets may include a return to historical patterns, with consumer assets showing both "odds and win rate" advantages [5][88]. - The market's lower limit has been raised following the easing of extreme trade conditions, with 71.8% of stocks closing above the 60-week moving average by the end of May [5][94]. - New thematic opportunities may arise from technological breakthroughs in key industries or new mid-term policy incentives expected around the end of July [5][95].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector is experiencing fluctuations at the bottom of the PMI index, with expectations for a gradual recovery in demand driven by government policies and market dynamics [4][16] - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the home decoration materials segment, particularly with the implementation of "old-for-new" subsidies and service consumption stimulus policies [4][16] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Overview - The construction materials sector has shown a slight increase of 0.18% in the past week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index, which decreased by -1.08% and -0.02% respectively [4] - The report highlights that the cement market price is currently at 367.8 RMB/ton, down by 3.0 RMB/ton from the previous week and down by 6.3 RMB/ton compared to the same period last year [20][21] 2. Cement Market - The average cement inventory ratio is reported at 65.7%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous week, but down by 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [25] - The average daily cement shipment rate is 47.8%, up by 1.4 percentage points from the previous week but down by 5.3 percentage points compared to last year [25] - The report notes that the cement price is expected to stabilize or slightly rebound in the coming months due to supply-side adjustments and demand recovery [12][19] 3. Glass Fiber Market - The report indicates that the profitability of the glass fiber sector remains low, with many second and third-tier companies operating at breakeven or loss [13] - The demand for high-end products in wind power and thermoplastics is expected to continue growing, which may support profitability for leading companies [13] - The report recommends companies like China Jushi and suggests monitoring others such as Zhongcai Technology and Shandong Fiberglass [13] 4. Glass Market - The glass sector is facing weak terminal demand, with inventory levels remaining high and price pressures expected to increase as the market enters a seasonal downturn [14][15] - The report recommends Qibin Group as a leading player in the glass market, with a focus on its cost advantages and growth potential in photovoltaic glass [14] 5. Home Decoration Materials - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to enhance the demand for home decoration materials [16] - Companies such as Beixin Building Materials and Arrow Home are recommended for their strong growth potential and market positioning [16]

Core Viewpoint - The May PMI data indicates a series of characteristics reflecting a weak but stabilizing economy, with improvements driven by eased tariffs and a package of financial policies [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The three "soft indicators" (EPMI, BCI, PMI) show consistent upward trends, suggesting a recovery in May after a downturn in April due to tariff disruptions [1][4]. - The EPMI increased by 1.6 points to 51.0, which is still the third lowest reading for the same period historically [6][7]. - The BCI rose slightly by 0.2 points to 50.3, remaining below last year's level, indicating mixed microeconomic conditions [6][7]. - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.5 points to 49.5, still below the neutral level of 50, while the non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.3 [7][8]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The midstream equipment manufacturing sector leads in absolute economic performance, followed by downstream consumer goods, while upstream raw materials lag behind [8][9]. - The May equipment manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2, and the consumer goods manufacturing PMI increased to 50.2, indicating positive trends in these sectors [9][10]. Group 3: Export and Demand - New export orders rose significantly by 2.8 points, reflecting a recovery in exports following the joint statement from the US and Japan [15][16]. - The production index increased to 50.7, and the purchasing volume index rose to 47.6, indicating a rebound in production and procurement activities [17]. Group 4: Price Trends and Expectations - Price indicators have not fully stabilized, but the downward pressure has eased, with the purchasing price index slightly declining to 46.9 [17][18]. - Microeconomic expectations have improved, with the production activity expectation index rising to 52.5, although still below March levels [19][20]. - The finished goods inventory index decreased to 46.5, indicating a cautious approach to inventory management by companies [22]. Group 5: Construction Sector - The construction sector remains weak, with the building PMI at 51.0, down from 51.9, indicating that real estate construction is a major drag on overall economic performance [23][24].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed a positive trend in May, with the Hang Seng Index fluctuating between 22,058.30 and 23,917 points, driven by optimism following the US-China tariff reductions [1] - The US suspended a planned 24% tariff on Chinese goods, reducing overall tariffs from 145% to 30%, while China reciprocated with a 10% tariff on US goods [1] - The IPO market in Hong Kong saw a resurgence, with major listings like CATL raising over 30 billion RMB, marking a significant recovery from last year's downturn [1] Group 2 - The innovative drug sector remains strong, with companies like Three Life Pharmaceutical and Stone Pharmaceutical announcing significant collaborations, leading to stock price surges [2] - The shipping sector benefited from tariff reductions, with companies like Orient Overseas International and SF Express seeing positive market reactions [2] - The overall outlook for the Hong Kong stock market in June is less optimistic due to a lack of strong catalysts and an increase in bearish news [2] Group 3 - The US faces significant fiscal challenges, including a downgrade of its credit rating by Moody's and a projected budget deficit increase of approximately $2.7 trillion over the next decade [3] - A substantial amount of US debt is set to mature in June 2025, raising concerns about the government's ability to refinance these obligations [3] - US-China trade negotiations are stalled, with potential new regulations targeting Chinese companies, indicating ongoing geopolitical tensions [3] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts in June will depend on economic data, with recent inflation indicators showing a slowdown [4] - OPEC+ is expected to discuss oil production increases, which could further influence market conditions [4] Group 5 - Geopolitical developments show some promise, with Russia and Ukraine set to hold peace talks, although a resolution remains distant [5] - Tensions between India and Pakistan continue, with ongoing conflicts affecting regional stability [5] Group 6 - The Lujiazui Forum in June is anticipated to announce significant financial policies, which could positively impact market sentiment [6] - Southbound capital inflows have reached historical highs, indicating strong investor interest in the Hong Kong market [6] Group 7 - The investment strategy for June focuses on exploring domestic demand potential, as the market's upward momentum is expected to be driven by internal factors rather than external [7] - The innovative drug sector is likely to attract continued investment, supported by recent business development collaborations [8] Group 8 - Companies like China Biologic Products and Innovent Biologics are positioned for growth due to their strong product pipelines and recent approvals [10][12] - Environmental companies like Conch Venture Holdings are facing challenges but are expected to improve profitability through operational efficiency [14][16] - Infrastructure firms like Anhui Expressway are benefiting from acquisitions and increased traffic, leading to significant profit growth [17][18] Group 9 - China Resources Power is leveraging its market position and operational efficiency to maintain profitability, with a focus on renewable energy expansion [19][20] - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation is experiencing strong demand in the shipbuilding sector, with expectations for continued growth [22] Group 10 - Jitu Express is seeing robust growth in package volume, particularly in Southeast Asia, driven by increased e-commerce activity [23][24] - Tongcheng Travel is reporting strong revenue growth, particularly in its core OTA business, with expectations for continued performance improvement [26][27] Group 11 - Anta Sports is experiencing significant growth in brand revenue, supported by successful product launches and channel innovations [28][29] - Multi-Point Intelligence is focusing on digital transformation solutions for local retailers, positioning itself as a leading SaaS provider in the sector [30][31][32]

Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: May 30, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Tariff easing and a continuous small increase in mid - June quotes have led to the stabilization and recovery of the index. The June quotes are relatively firm. Maersk's mid - June quote increased to $2319, indicating decent demand. Most other airlines' quotes remained stable in the $2500 - $3300 range. The decline in US - line trade data may be due to the time - lag effect of the Sino - US trade friction easing on May 12. The peak - season rush for exports may not be falsified. The June contract will follow the delivery logic, and if shipping companies are determined to hold prices, there may be a small increase. The far - month 08 and 10 contracts are mainly based on the logic of the US - line rush exacerbating the supply - demand contradiction in the peak season, and are more affected by sentiment. If the June prices are strong, the central price of the far - month peak - season contracts should also rise [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market on the day: Due to tariff easing and rising mid - June quotes, the index stabilized. Maersk's mid - June quote rose to $2319, while most other airlines' quotes were stable. The decline in US - line trade data may be due to a time - lag. The June contract will follow the delivery logic, and far - month contracts are affected by sentiment [8] 2. Industry News - From May 19th to 23rd, the China export container shipping market continued to improve, with most long - haul routes' freight rates rising. In April, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year. On May 23rd, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index rose 7.2% to 1586.12 points. In the European route, the eurozone's economic recovery faces challenges. The freight rates of European and Mediterranean routes increased significantly, while those of North American routes also rose. In the near - ocean routes, the freight rates to Japan remained stable, the rate to Southeast Asia increased, and the rate to South Korea decreased. Due to tariff policy uncertainty and inventory shortages in US retailers, shipping companies plan to increase freight rates. Future four weeks will see 75,000 TEU of overtime ships on the US - line. The EU's new draft policy may impact the European small - package market [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Spot Freight Rates for Container Shipping - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index shows that from May 19th to May 26th, the European route's index decreased by 1.4%, while the US - West route's index increased by 18.9% [12] 3.2 Futures Market of Container Shipping Index (European Route) - Not elaborated in text, but figures of the main and secondary - main contracts' trends are provided [16] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Figures of global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates are provided [17][21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. Core Views of the Report Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period. Demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase. However, there are risks from non - aluminum demand pressure and rising valuations after cost reduction. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and try positive spreads for the 6 - 9 contracts [7]. - **PVC**: The recent rebound is due to macro - stimulus, export support, and supply - demand factors. But in the long - term, there is an obvious oversupply pressure, and potential negative factors exist. It is suggested to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling idea in the medium - term, with a resistance level of around 5100 for the 09 contract [7]. Crude Oil Industry - International oil prices are in a volatile trend, lacking strong drivers. The market is mainly affected by macro and supply factors. Short - term prices will continue to fluctuate, and the implied volatility is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, a trading - band strategy is recommended, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be observed. Attention should also be paid to the INE spread rebound opportunities and options' volatility - trading opportunities [12]. Styrene Industry - The recent rebound of styrene is due to tariff relief and low - inventory support. But high - price spot shows signs of weakness, and there are problems in the downstream and raw - material supply. It is expected to have more downward space, and the strategy is to short - sell at a high price around 7800 for the near - month contracts and pay attention to the widening opportunity of the EB - BZ spread [23]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply is increasing, and the supply - demand situation is marginally weakening. It is relatively resistant to decline in the short - term. The strategy is to pay attention to the support at 6500 - 6600 and try a reverse spread for the 9 - 1 contracts [27]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and the basis has declined. It is also relatively resistant to decline. The strategy is to pay attention to the support at 4600 and take a reverse - spread approach for the 9 - 1 contracts [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Supply is expected to contract, and inventory is decreasing. The strategy is to wait and see on the single - side and try a positive spread for the 9 - 1 contracts at a low price [27]. - **Short - fiber**: The processing fee may be repaired. The strategy is the same as PTA for the single - side, and the processing fee should be expanded at a low level [27]. - **Polyester Bottle - chip**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the processing fee is low. The strategy is the same as PTA for the single - side, and the processing fee should be expanded at the lower limit of the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range [27]. Polyolefin Industry - For LLDPE and PP, the supply of LLDPE is expected to decrease in inventory before early June, while the supply pressure of PP will increase after late May. Demand lacks sustainability. The strategy is to short - sell PP at a high price and pay attention to the expansion of the LP spread [31]. Methanol Industry - The port inventory is at a turning point, and the supply is increasing while the demand is in the off - season. The 09 contract's supply - demand situation is more relaxed. The strategy is to short - sell around 2300 - 2350 with a target of around 2100, and the MTO spread should be operated within 0 - 500 [34]. Urea Industry - The supply is at a high level, while the demand is under pressure from the decline of compound - fertilizer plants and stagnant agricultural fertilization. The short - term market is likely to move in a range after the decline [38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: On May 26, the 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2687.5 yuan/ton (in 100% equivalent), and the 50% was 2840 yuan/ton. The PVC market prices in East China were 4760 yuan/ton for the calcium - carbide method and 5000 yuan/ton for the ethylene method [2]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: For caustic soda, the FOB price at East China ports on May 22 was 405 dollars/ton, with an export profit of 32.1 yuan/ton. For PVC, the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 670 dollars/ton, and the export profit was 40.3 yuan/ton [3][4]. - **Supply**: The caustic - soda industry's operating rate on May 23 was 86.9%, and the PVC total operating rate was 73.1% [5]. - **Demand**: The alumina industry's operating rate on May 23 was 78%, and the PVC downstream pipe - making and profile - making operating rates were 45.3% and 39.6% respectively [6][7]. - **Inventory**: On May 22, the liquid - caustic soda inventory in East China factories was 19.1 tons, and the PVC upstream factory inventory was 38.7 tons [7]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On May 27, Brent was 64.71 dollars/barrel, WTI was 61.47 dollars/barrel, and SC was 455.90 yuan/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread was 3.24 dollars/barrel [12]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The market is affected by OPEC+ production policies, geopolitical factors such as the US - Iran nuclear talks, and macro - economic policies [12]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices**: On May 26, Brent crude oil (July) was 64.7 dollars/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha was 566 dollars/ton, and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was 780 dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot and Futures**: The styrene spot price in East China on May 26 was 7825 yuan/ton, and the EB2506 futures price was 7341 yuan/ton [21]. - **Overseas Quotes and Import Profits**: The styrene CFR China price on May 26 was 896 dollars/ton, and the import profit was 271.5 yuan/ton [22]. - **Industry Operating Rates and Profits**: On May 23, the domestic pure - benzene comprehensive operating rate was 71.6%, and the styrene operating rate was 69.3% [23]. Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: On May 26, Brent crude oil (July) was 64.74 dollars/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha was 566 dollars/ton, and CFR China PX was 834 dollars/ton [27]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On May 26, the POY150/48 price was 6990 yuan/ton, and the FDY150/96 price was 7275 yuan/ton [27]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: On May 23, the Asian PX operating rate was 69.4%, the PTA operating rate was 77.1%, and the polyester comprehensive operating rate was 95% [27]. Polyolefin Industry - **PE and PP Prices and Spreads**: On May 26, the L2505 closing price was 7008 yuan/ton, and the PP2505 closing price was 6888 yuan/ton [31]. - **Non - standard Prices**: The East China LDPE price on May 26 was 8930 yuan/ton [31]. - **Operating Rates and Inventories**: On May 23, the PE device operating rate was 78%, and the PP device operating rate was 76.8%. The PE enterprise inventory was 49.8 tons, and the PP enterprise inventory was 59.3 tons [31]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On May 26, the MA2501 closing price was 2293 yuan/ton, and the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line was 338 yuan/ton [34]. - **Inventory**: On May 23, the methanol enterprise inventory was 33.401 tons, and the port inventory was 49 tons [34]. - **Operating Rates**: On May 23, the Shanghai - domestic enterprise operating rate was 74.51%, and the downstream MTO device operating rate was 75.7% [34]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On May 26, the 01 - contract price was 1737 yuan/ton, and the spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 12 yuan/ton [38]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: On May 26, the price of anthracite small pieces (Dangcheng) was 1000 yuan/ton, and the price of steam - coal at the pithead (Ejin Horo Banner) was 418 yuan/ton [38]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: On May 23, the domestic urea daily output was 20.48 tons, and the factory inventory was 91.74 tons [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market currently has high inventory, but the basis provides some support in the short - term. In the long - run, due to weak demand and over - capacity, the price is mainly driven by the macro - environment, and the expected rebound space is limited [2]. - The caustic soda market has high supply pressure and limited demand growth. The short - term is in a volatile state, and the medium - term 09 contract is mainly for shorting [3]. - The rubber market has fundamental pressure, with slow short - term supply increase and high raw material prices providing some support, but the overall upward drive is insufficient due to strong future supply increase expectations and weak demand [4][5]. - The urea market has stable supply and expected demand release, but there is obvious upward price pressure. It is expected to run in a volatile manner [6]. - The methanol market has relatively abundant supply and strong downstream demand wait - and - see sentiment. It is expected to run in a volatile manner [7]. - The plastic market has reduced supply pressure due to increased maintenance, but weak downstream demand. It is expected to have a wide - range volatile run in the short - term [8]. Summary by Product PVC - On May 22, the PVC 09 contract closed at 4926 yuan/ton (- 43), and the market prices in different regions showed different trends. The basis strengthened recently, providing some support to the futures price [2]. - In the long - term, demand is dragged down by the real estate industry, and exports are restricted. The supply side has new investment plans, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern. The price is mainly affected by the macro - environment [2]. - The short - term tariff relief exceeds expectations, but the actual impact on demand is still expected to exist. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to tariff progress [2]. Caustic Soda - On May 22, the caustic soda SH09 contract closed at 2528 yuan/ton (+ 1), and the market prices in Shandong increased. The inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises is high and the de - stocking is not smooth [3]. - The supply side has high - profit and high -开工, with new device production expectations. The demand side is affected by tariffs, and the non - aluminum industry's demand has slowed down. The alumina industry has mixed production situations [3]. - The short - term is in a volatile state, and the medium - term 09 contract is mainly for shorting. It is necessary to pay attention to multiple factors such as delivery volume, inventory de - stocking, and alumina production [3]. Rubber - On May 22, the rubber price center declined slightly. The short - term supply increase is slow, and the high raw material prices provide some support, but the future supply increase expectation is strong and the demand is weak [4][5]. - As of May 18, the inventory in Qingdao and the social inventory of natural rubber showed different trends. The capacity utilization rates of semi - steel and full - steel tire sample enterprises changed, and the inventory continued to increase [5]. - The prices of raw materials in Thailand and different regions in China are provided, and the basis between Yunnan full - latex and the RU main contract changed [5]. Urea - The urea 2509 contract fell 0.48% to close at 1849 yuan/ton, and the spot price continued to decline slightly. The supply side has stable production, and the cost of anthracite is stable or decreasing [6]. - The demand side shows that the capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The demand support of other industrial sectors is weak. The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased, and the port inventory has increased [6]. - The supply is stable, and the demand is expected to be released, but there is obvious upward price pressure. It is expected to run in a volatile manner [6]. Methanol - The methanol 2509 contract fell 1.1% to close at 2241 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Taicang decreased. The supply side has a reduced capacity utilization rate and production volume [7]. - The cost of coal - to - methanol has decreased slightly, and most are in a profitable state. The demand side shows that the olefin industry's开工 rate has decreased, and the traditional demand has limited support [7]. - The inventory of sample enterprises has increased, and the port inventory has decreased. It is expected to run in a volatile manner [7]. Plastic - On May 22, the plastic 2509 contract fell 1.01% to close at 7159 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of plastics decreased. The supply side has reduced开工 and production due to increased maintenance losses [8]. - The demand side shows that the export of plastic products has increased in the short - term, but the demand for agricultural films has declined, and the demand for packaging films and pipes is average [8]. - The inventory pressure has been relieved to some extent, but the future market expectation is still weak. It is expected to have a wide - range volatile run in the short - term [8].