Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a volatile and consolidating manner, with prices continuing to move downward in a volatile fashion, hitting new recent lows, and the price center of gravity continuing to shift downward due to weak supply - demand and pessimistic market sentiment. Winter storage is sluggish this year, providing weak price support [1][3]. - The view on aluminum ingots is that prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up rates. There are pressures on the downstream start - up rates, and the price is expected to operate in a high - level range in the short - term, with subsequent attention on the inventory - consumption trend [1][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, with a resumption of production expected between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, and an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the remaining mills will stop production around mid - January, with an estimated daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the minutes of the Fed's last meeting boosted market optimism, with most policymakers believing that interest rate cuts later this year are appropriate. However, policymakers are still worried about the inflationary pressure brought by Trump's tariffs, and only a few officials think a rate cut could happen as early as this month [2]. - As of Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina in China is 110.82 million tons/year, and the total operating production capacity is 88.57 million tons/year. The weekly start - up rate of alumina has decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92% compared to last week, with some enterprises in Shandong and Guangxi undergoing maintenance and a decline in operating production capacity. As of the end of June, the inventory in alumina enterprises' factories increased by 81,000 tons [3]. - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% compared to last week [3]. - On July 10, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 466,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from Monday and 8,000 tons from last Thursday. Although the ingot - casting volume of some electrolytic aluminum plants has increased, the arrival volume is still low, resulting in a short - term reduction in social inventory of aluminum ingots [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Views - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center moving downward and running weakly [1][2] - The aluminum price is expected to run in a high - level range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [3] Summary by Related Contents Finished Products - Yunguizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance time is mostly in mid - to late January, with a production resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have or will shut down, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - Finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Aluminum - Macroscopically, Trump escalated trade tensions on Monday, warning 14 countries of higher tariffs, but the effective date was postponed to August 1. The market is waiting for the Fed's latest policy meeting minutes [1] - Domestically, as of last Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina was 110.82 million tons/year, the operating total capacity was 88.63 million tons/year, and the weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 79.97%. As of the end of June, the in - plant inventory of alumina enterprises increased by 81,000 tons [2] - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% last week [2] - In the aluminum plate and strip field, enterprises actively reduced production due to insufficient orders and high inventory. In the aluminum cable field, July orders are pessimistic, but the delivery expectation of State Grid orders in the second half of the year is good. Aluminum profile enterprises have weak new orders and are under pressure due to intense processing fee competition [2] - On July 7, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 478,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last Thursday and 10,000 tons from last Monday. It is expected that the inventory of domestic aluminum ingots will increase steadily in early July [2] - Currently, the off - season inventory accumulation has initially appeared, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is reflected in the ore price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. Macro - risk pricing increases, and attention should be paid to domestic policy promotion [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] -铝价预计短期区间震荡，关注宏观情绪、下游开工、宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复产情况和消费释放情况 [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1.成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响建筑钢材总产量74.1万吨，安徽省6家短流程钢厂停产期间日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [3][4] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比下降40.3%，同比增长43.2% [4] -成材在供需双弱格局下价格震荡下行创近期新低，今年冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] 3.2.铝锭 -海外市场担心美国政府赤字及贸易协议不确定性，国内利好政策促进消费 [3] -截至6月30日，氧化铝行业理论利润248元/吨，山西、河南部分产能理论已亏损，成本支撑将体现 [4] -6月铝加工行业PMI综合指数40.1%，跌至荣枯线以下，环比降9.7个百分点，同比降1.5% [4] -上周铝线缆龙头企业开工下降，国网订单匹配慢，采购节奏放缓 [4] -6月30日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存46.8万吨，较上周四增0.5万吨，环比上周一增0.4万吨 [4] -7月上旬国内铝锭库存预计稳中小增，关注到货和累库持续性 [4] -海外宏观不稳定，低库存支撑铝价但库存走势反复，几内亚雨季影响矿石价格，需求端淡季限制上行空间 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views -成材震荡整理运行 关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] -铝价短期预计区间震荡 需关注宏观情绪和下游开工 [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1成材情况 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨 安徽省短流程钢厂停产期间日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [3] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日 10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降40.3% 同比增43.2% [4] -成材供需双弱 市场情绪悲观 价格重心下移 冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] 3.2铝锭情况 3.2.1宏观因素 -地缘政治局势紧张缓解 市场预期美联储今年降息更多致美元走弱 但美联储内部分歧大需关注后续表态 [3] -海外宏观不稳定存在 低库存和铝水比例走高预期支撑铝价 但库存走势反复 几内亚雨季影响矿石价格 需求端淡季压力限制上行空间 [5] 3.2.2国内基本面 -6月20日数据显示 国内港口铝土矿周度到港总量较前一周减3.8万吨 几内亚主要港口铝土矿周度出港总量较前一周减101.08万吨 6月下旬几内亚雨季影响预计逐步体现 [4] -6月下游铝加工淡季氛围浓厚 周度开工环比降0.6个百分点至59.8% [4] -6月23日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存较上周一下降0.6万吨 去库幅度减弱 低库存有支撑 现货升贴水回落 铝水比例维持高位 市场铸锭量偏紧 个别铝厂铸锭量本周稍有增加但难改格局 [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation [2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate within a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream开工 [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content For Finished Products - Yunguizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel output; 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui, with different shutdown times and a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - Finished products prices continued to decline, with a pessimistic market sentiment, and this year's winter storage was sluggish, providing weak price support [2] - Follow - up attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [2] For Aluminum Ingots - The impact of previous news on ore prices has stabilized, alumina enterprises continue to resume production, and spot inventory is gradually increasing pressure [2] - In June, the overall off - season atmosphere in the downstream aluminum processing industry is strong, with the weekly starting rate dropping 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% [2] - On June 9, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 477,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons from last Thursday and 34,000 tons from the end of May [2] - The core driver of inventory reduction is the tight supply, with a decrease in ingot casting volume and low actual arrivals, resulting in a shortage of circulating goods [2] - In the short term, the inventory is expected to continue to decline, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the annual low of 440,000 tons [2] - Overseas macro instability exists, and the price is under pressure in the off - season. The short - term aluminum price is expected to be adjusted within a range, with inventory reduction supporting the price [3] - Follow - up attention should be paid to macro expectations, geopolitical crises, ore resumption, and consumption release [3]

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - The finished steel is expected to be in a state of shock consolidation [2]. - The aluminum ingot price is expected to run in a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [3]. Summary by Related Content Finished Steel - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in Yunnan and Guizhou regions will stop production and overhaul from mid - January, and the resumption time is around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - The finished steel continued to decline in shock yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is weak [2]. Aluminum Ingot - Overseas data shows that the better - than - expected employment growth in the US in May indicates that the Fed may wait longer to cut interest rates. After the data was released, the financial market bet that the Fed would not cut interest rates until September and would cut them twice in 2025, reducing the bet on a third rate cut [1]. - As of this Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical alumina in China is 110.82 million tons/year, and the total operating production capacity is 87.27 million tons/year. The weekly start - up rate of alumina increased by 0.54 percentage points to 78.75% compared with last week [2]. - In June, the off - season atmosphere of downstream aluminum processing is strong, and the weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% compared with last week. The aluminum cable and wire sector is weak, and attention should be paid to the next delivery cycle and market segment orders [2]. - On June 5, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 504,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the beginning of the week and 7,000 tons from last Thursday. The post - holiday inventory accumulation is controllable, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline in the short term [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No clear industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2) Report's Core Views - For成材, it is expected to have an oscillatory consolidation with a downward trend in the price center, running weakly [1][3] - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to have a short - term range - bound movement, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [4] 3) Summary According to Related Content For成材 - **Production Disruption**: Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel output; 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui will have production disruptions, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2] - **Market Performance**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase. The price of成材 continued to decline, hitting a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the weak supply - demand pattern, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] - **Outlook**: It will run in an oscillatory consolidation, and attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [3] For Aluminum - **Cost and Profit**: The impact of the Guinea bauxite mining rights incident on market sentiment has eased. The cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased by about 258 yuan/ton last week to about 17,200 yuan/ton, a 1.5% increase. The profit of aluminum plants has been compressed. The average profit of the alumina industry exceeded 400 yuan/ton as of May 30 [3] - **Production and Inventory**: In May 2025, China's bauxite production increased by 5.0% MoM and 19.1% YoY. As of June 3, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 519,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous week [3] - **Industry Index**: The PMI composite index of the aluminum processing industry in May was 49.8%, close to the boom - bust line but still in the contraction range, a 1.8 - percentage - point MoM decrease and an 8.7% YoY increase [3] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to have a short - term range - bound movement. Attention should be paid to the alternation of peak and off - peak seasons, macro policy changes, macro expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [4] - **Tariff Policy**: The US President Trump signed an executive order to raise the import tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% on June 4 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - For building materials, it is expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its price center moving down and showing weak operation [1][3]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to undergo short - term weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Building Materials - **Production Impact**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process building steel producers' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons; 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui have or will shut down, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2]. - **Real Estate Transaction Data**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, with a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [3]. - **Price Trend**: Building materials continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3]. - **Future Focus**: Macro policies and downstream demand conditions [3]. Aluminum - **Tariff Policy**: Trump plans to raise import tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, and US officials are accelerating trade negotiations. The dollar is under pressure due to tariff threats [2]. - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The impact of the Guinea bauxite mining rights incident on market sentiment is easing, and the market is in an oversupply pattern in the short term. Imported bauxite prices are expected to enter a volatile adjustment phase. In May 2025, China's bauxite production increased by 5.0% MoM and 19.1% YoY [3]. - **Alumina**: As of May 30, the average profit of the alumina industry exceeded 400 yuan/ton. In June, alumina production capacity is expected to gradually resume and new production capacity will be further released [3]. - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: The PMI composite index in May was 49.8%, in the contraction range. The industry is in a slack season, with weak terminal demand and limited new orders [3]. - **Aluminum Ingot Inventory**: On May 29, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 511,000 tons, showing a decline [3]. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to adjust within a range, and attention should be paid to the alternation of peak and off - peak seasons and macro - policy changes [4]. - **Future Focus**: Macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No explicit industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - For building materials, it is expected to have an oscillating and sorting operation. The price center of building materials has been moving downward. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is rather sluggish, with weak support for prices [4]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to have a short - term strong - side oscillation. The inventory in the East China region has been decreasing, and holders generally have a strong willingness to hold up prices, but the downstream buying has weakened. In the Central China market, the consumption is showing a weakening trend [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Building Materials - **Production Disruption**: Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui Province, 6 short - process steel mills have shutdown or will shutdown, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3][4]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - **Market Performance**: Building materials continued to oscillate downward yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support. The view is an oscillating and sorting operation [4]. - **Later Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. Aluminum Ingots - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, the aluminum price moved within a range. In the East China region, due to the decreasing inventory, holders have a strong willingness to hold up prices, but the downstream buying is weakening, and the market transaction is becoming lighter. In the Central China market, the consumption is showing a weakening trend, and the spot premium is under pressure [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: On May 26, 2025, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas in China was 534,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from last Thursday and 51,000 tons from last Monday. In the short term, the inventory is expected to continue to decrease, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season [4]. - **Industry Operation**: The operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises in China decreased slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 61.4% last week, with different trends in each sector [4]. - **Later Concerns**: Changes in macro - expectations, development of geopolitical crises, resumption of production at the mine end, and consumption release [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Report's Core View - The price of finished products is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [2][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Finished Products - The production of short - process construction steel enterprises in Yunnan and Guizhou regions will be affected by 741,000 tons during the Spring Festival shutdown, and 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui will also have production affected [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [3] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is weak [3] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. The US House of Representatives passed Trump's tax and spending cuts bill, and the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased, which boosted the dollar [2] - As of Thursday this week, the national alumina operating capacity increased, and the weekly start - up rate rose by 0.99 percentage points to 78.01% [3] - The impact of the Guinea event on the supply of bauxite needs to be evaluated, which may support the price of bauxite and the cost of alumina in the short - term [2][3][4] - As of May 22, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas decreased by 28,000 tons compared with Monday and 24,000 tons compared with last Thursday. There is an expectation of continued de - stocking next week, and the next two weeks are a critical stage [3]