Group 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Yesterday, steel and iron ore showed relatively strong trends, while coking coal declined significantly due to the "supply guarantee" expectation. Considering the high steel inventory and winter storage pressure, the molten iron of steel mills in the January contract is likely to fall rather than rise. The iron ore port inventory continues to accumulate, and the supply of iron elements in the January contract is turning loose, with a negative feedback basis in the iron element chain. The main interference later lies in the winter iron ore replenishment of steel mills. The long coking coal and short hot-rolled coil arbitrage was affected by the decline of coking coal. Considering the inventory differentiation between the two, this arbitrage logic will continue in the near term and can be held. For single-side trading, it is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the support levels of 3000 for rebar and 3200 for hot-rolled coil [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of rebar in East China, North China, and South China were 3190 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0, 10, and 10 yuan/ton. The prices of rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3089 yuan/ton, 3133 yuan/ton, and 3055 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -13, -3, and -19 yuan/ton. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil in East China, North China, and South China were 3260 yuan/ton, 3190 yuan/ton, and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -10, 0, and 10 yuan/ton. The prices of hot-rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3253 yuan/ton, 3274 yuan/ton, and 3242 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -10, -9, and -10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price was 2930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The profits of East China hot-rolled coil, North China hot-rolled coil, and South China hot-rolled coil were -30, -110, and -40 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -3, -3, and -13 yuan/ton. The profits of East China rebar, North China rebar, and South China rebar were -110, -100, and -10 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -3, 7, and 7 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production Indicators**: The daily average molten iron output was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons or -0.9%. The output of five major steel products was 856.7 tons, a decrease of 18.5 tons or -2.1%. The rebar output was 208.5 tons, a decrease of 4.1 tons or -1.9%, including an electric furnace output of 29.3 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or -0.9%, and a converter output of 179.3 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons or -2.1%. The hot-rolled coil output was 318.2 tons, a decrease of 5.4 tons or -1.7% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products was 1503.6 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons or -0.7%. The rebar inventory was 592.5 tons, a decrease of 10 tons or -1.7%. The hot-rolled coil inventory was 410.5 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons or 0.9% [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume was 91 tons, a decrease of 17 tons or -15.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products was 866.9 tons, a decrease of 49.5 tons or -5.4%. The apparent demand for rebar was 218.5 tons, a decrease of 13.7 tons or -5.9%. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coil was 314.3 tons, a decrease of 17.6 tons or -5.3% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Last night, iron ore strengthened and the basis narrowed. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased this week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports declined. Based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to increase. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin has dropped significantly, the molten iron output has declined from a high level, and the steel mill replenishment demand has weakened. In terms of inventory, the port inventory is accumulating, and the port clearance volume has increased slightly. If the steel mill losses continue to intensify and the finished product destocking fails to meet expectations, the iron ore price will hit a new low. However, given the current profit rate and inventory level of steel mills, the probability of negative feedback in molten iron is relatively low. The Rio Tinto Q3 report shows that the overall commissioning progress of the Simandou project is faster than expected, and it is expected to complete the first batch of iron ore shipments to the port in October, about one month earlier than the original plan. For the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short iron ore, due to the significant decline of coking coal, considering the large discount of iron ore, partial profit-taking can be considered. Wait for the coking coal to stabilize before paying attention to this arbitrage again [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines were 836.3 yuan/ton, 852.4 yuan/ton, 864.2 yuan/ton, and 846.7 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -7.7, -2.2, -2.2, and -3.2 yuan/ton. The 01 contract basis for Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines were 36.3 yuan/ton, 52.4 yuan/ton, 64.2 yuan/ton, and 46.7 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -5.2, 0.3, 0.3, and -0.7 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was 21.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or 2.4%. The 9 - 1 spread was -45.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.0 yuan/ton or -2.3%. The 1 - 5 spread was 23.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or 2.2% [4]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: The spot prices of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port were 876.0 yuan/ton, 775.0 yuan/ton, 814.0 yuan/ton, and 718.0 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -2.0, 0, -2.0, and 0 yuan/ton. The prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index were 102.8 dollars/ton and 107.7 dollars/ton respectively, with price changes of -0.5 and -0.7 dollars/ton [4]. - **Supply Indicators**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 2741.2 tons, a decrease of 477.2 tons or -14.8%. The weekly global shipment volume was 3069.0 tons, a decrease of 144.8 tons or -4.5%. The monthly national import volume was 11632.6 tons, an increase of 111.6 tons or 10.6% [4]. - **Demand Indicators**: The weekly average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons or -0.9%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 320.9 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons or 0.2%. The monthly national pig iron output was 6604.6 tons, a decrease of 374.7 tons or -5.4%. The monthly national crude steel output was 7349.0 tons, a decrease of 387.8 tons or -5.0% [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly inventory at 45 ports increased by 229.4 tons or 1.5% compared to Monday, reaching 15128.19 tons. The weekly imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.6006 tons, an increase of 160.1 tons or 1.8%. The weekly inventory available days of 64 steel mills was 21.0 days, unchanged [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - **Coke**: Yesterday, the coke futures showed a weak downward trend. Recently, the spot and futures markets have not been in sync. The port trade quotes have followed the futures down. The third round of price increase by mainstream coking enterprises has been implemented, and the fourth round of price increase has been initiated but not yet landed. On the supply side, the coking coal prices in the Shanxi market are strong, providing cost support for coke. However, coking enterprises still face losses after price increases, and their开工 rate has declined. On the demand side, environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi have led to a significant decline in steel mill molten iron output, suppressing the price increase of coke. In terms of inventory, the inventories of coking plants, ports, and steel mills have all decreased slightly, and the overall inventory is slightly lower in the middle range. Coke supply and demand are tight, and downstream enterprises are destocking passively. Although the Mongolian coal quotes have followed the futures down and the Shanxi auctions have become mixed, the coking coal prices are still firm, and coke still has the expectation of a price increase. For the strategy, take a wait - and - see attitude towards single - side trading, with the reference range of 1650 - 1780. It is recommended to carry out a long 01 and short 05 arbitrage for coke, and guard against the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in steel prices [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Yesterday, the coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend, with a certain divergence between the spot and futures markets. The Shanxi spot auction prices are running strongly, while the Mongolian coal quotes have followed the futures down. The thermal coal market has been rising recently, and the overall coal spot market is in a tight situation. On the supply side, some shut - down coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have started to resume production, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased significantly since November, with the port inventory rising from a low level. On the demand side, the decline in profits and environmental protection restrictions have led to a significant decline in molten iron output, a slight decline in coking plant开工, and a weakening of steel mill replenishment demand. In terms of inventory, coal mines and steel mills are destocking, while coking plants, coal washing plants, ports, and terminals are accumulating inventory, and the overall inventory is slightly higher in the middle range. The downstream is actively replenishing inventory. For the strategy, take a wait - and - see attitude towards single - side trading, with the reference range of 1170 - 1290. It is recommended to carry out a long 01 and short 05 arbitrage for coking coal, and guard against the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in steel prices [7]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) were 1662 yuan/ton and 1689 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged. The prices of the coke 01 and 05 contracts were 1685 yuan/ton and 1831 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -59 and -46 yuan/ton. The 01 basis was 4 yuan/ton, and the 05 basis was -142 yuan/ton. The J01 - J05 spread was -146 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton. The weekly coking profit of Mysteel was -54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton [7]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) were 1420 yuan/ton and 1331 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0 and -33 yuan/ton. The prices of the coking coal 01 and 05 contracts were 1213 yuan/ton and 1272 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -53 and -31 yuan/ton. The 01 basis was 118 yuan/ton, and the 05 basis was 61 yuan/ton. The JM01 - JM05 spread was -59 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton. The weekly profit of sample coal mines was 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.4% [7]. - **Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) was 1420 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. - **Overseas Coal Prices**: The arrival price of Australian Peak Downs coal was 213 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.5 dollars/ton or 0.2%. The ex - warehouse price of Australian primary coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton or -2.4%. The ex - warehouse price of Australian thermal coal at Guangzhou Port was 882 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.4 yuan/ton or 0.3% [7]. - **Supply Indicators**: The weekly average daily coke output of all - sample coking plants was 63.6 tons, a decrease of 1.0 ton or -1.5%. The weekly average daily coke output of 247 steel mills was 46.1 tons, a decrease of 0.1 ton or -0.3%. The weekly average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons or -0.9% [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory was 887.1 tons, a decrease of 13.0 tons or -1.4%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 58.3 tons, a decrease of 1.6 tons or -2.6%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 626.6 tons, a decrease of 2.4 tons or -0.4%. The port inventory was 202.1 tons, a decrease of 9.0 tons or -4.3%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines was 80.4 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or -0.9%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 1070.0 tons, an increase of 17.5 tons or 1.7%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 787.3 tons, a decrease of 9.0 tons or -1.1%. The port inventory was 304.3 tons, an increase of 14.1 tons or 4.9% [7]. - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The calculated coke supply - demand gap was -3.7 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons or -2.2% [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity moving downward and showing a weak operation [1][2]. - The aluminum ingot market is expected to maintain a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, with prices remaining at a high level. In the short - term, it is expected to be in a high - level shock, and prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [1][2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 成材 (Finished Products) - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, one of the 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [2]. - The finished products continued to decline yesterday, hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity continued to move down, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2]. 铝锭 (Aluminum Ingot) - Macroscopically, since mid - September, the US dollar has continued to rebound, with traders more optimistic about the US economic growth prospects, and many Fed officials are cautious about further interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns [1]. - Domestically, the output of bauxite has decreased. Although mines in Shanxi and Henan affected by environmental policies and the rainy season can resume production with government approval, some compliant mines may resume production on a small scale by the end of the year. With sufficient imported sources, some miners increase the proportion of imported high - temperature ore to maintain output, and domestic bauxite prices are expected to remain stable [2]. - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 61.6%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The operating rate of aluminum cables decreased by 2 percentage points, and the aluminum profile operating rate dropped to 52.6%. The operating rates of aluminum strip and foil leading enterprises also decreased slightly. The overall operating rate is expected to continue to shrink [2]. - On November 10, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 627,000 tons, up 5,000 tons from last Thursday and flat from last Monday. In November, the pressure of weak inventory accumulation increases, which is expected to have a negative impact on aluminum prices [2]. - Overseas, due to high import tariffs and tight global supply, the premium of the US spot aluminum market has reached a record high [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors including macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical events. Different commodities show diverse trends based on their specific fundamentals [6][13][33]. - For macro - finance, the stock market is in a weak adjustment state, and the bond market has upward potential due to the expected implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy [10][11]. - In the black commodity market, the prices of steel and related raw materials are likely to remain weak in the medium - term, especially during the winter [13]. - For agricultural products, the prices of different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, production forecasts, and market expectations [24][27]. - In the energy - chemical sector, the supply - demand imbalance in the oil market persists, and the prices of related products are expected to be volatile [33]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - Information - The US will suspend the implementation of the export control penetration rule from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce views this as an important measure to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur [6]. - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the importance of observing financial aggregates through indicators like social financing scale and money supply [6]. - Mexico delays increasing tariffs on Chinese goods, and the EU considers removing Huawei and ZTE equipment. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs urges the EU to provide a fair business environment [7]. - The US Senate passes the "Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act" to end the government shutdown, and the House of Representatives will vote on it [7]. - The US "small non - farm" data shows a significant decline in private - sector employment, which is the largest monthly decline since March 2023 [8]. Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a wait - and - see strategy with a view of market oscillation. The A - share market is weakly sorted, and the inflation repair's sustainability needs further observation. The trade data in October shows a decline in export growth [10]. Bond Futures - Bonds still have upward momentum as the moderately loose monetary policy is expected to be implemented. The capital market has shifted from tight to loose, and interest rates are stable [11]. Black Commodities Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - In the medium - term, the black commodity market is likely to remain bearish. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is stable but lacks elasticity. The supply of steel mills may decrease, and the probability of negative feedback is increasing. Iron ore prices are expected to decline due to the expected increase in supply [13]. Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to decline in the short - term. The supply of coking coal may increase during the heating season, and the demand for steel is weak in the off - season, but the price of thermal coal provides some support [15]. Ferroalloys - In the long - term, the surplus situation of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is difficult to reverse. In the short - term, a bearish strategy is recommended, but pay attention to cost changes [16]. Soda Ash and Glass - Currently, a wait - and - see approach is recommended. The production of soda ash has slightly decreased, and the cost has increased. The sales of glass have weakened, and the market is concerned about demand and inventory [17][18]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals are good, but the price may decline in the first quarter of next year. There are opportunities for buying on dips [20]. Industrial Silicon - The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range. There is a certain pressure on supply in the near - term, but the supply may decrease during the dry season [21]. Polysilicon - The price is expected to oscillate weakly. The negative feedback of demand is deepening, and the market is waiting for policy expectations from industry meetings [22]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The price is expected to oscillate at a low level due to increased supply pressure and weak demand. Pay attention to the agricultural reports from the US Department of Agriculture [24]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market is expected to be bearish in the long - term due to the expected increase in supply and the decrease in demand. In the short - term, the price is supported by cost and inventory [26][27]. Eggs - The futures market is strong due to the expectation of "capacity reduction", but the spot market is stable, which may drag down the near - term futures contracts. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. Apples - The price is expected to oscillate strongly. The inventory is low, and the price is relatively high. Pay attention to consumption trends [30]. Corn - Pay attention to the upward pressure on the price. The spot price has rebounded, but the supply pressure still exists, and the impact of policy - based wheat release needs to be monitored [31]. Red Dates - A wait - and - see approach is recommended. The weakening of the spot market in the sales area has a negative impact on the price [32]. Pigs - The supply pressure continues, and the demand is stable. A bearish strategy is recommended for near - term contracts [32]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The price is expected to oscillate. The supply - demand imbalance is expected to persist in the long - term, and the measures of OPEC+ to slow down production increase have limited support for the price [33]. Fuel Oil - The price will follow the trend of crude oil. The supply is abundant, and the demand is stable. The market is concerned about the supply impact of sanctions on Russia [35]. Plastic - The price is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply pressure is large, but the cost provides some support [36]. Rubber - The price may oscillate slightly stronger in the short - term. Pay attention to the spread between RU and NR and the selling of call options [37]. Synthetic Rubber - The price has stopped falling in the short - term. It is recommended to sell call options after the price rebounds [38]. Caustic Soda - A short - term bearish strategy is recommended, but the downward space is limited. Consider buying at low prices in the medium - term [39]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase after continuous decline. The focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game [40][41]. Polyester Industry Chain - The price is expected to be strong in the short - term. Pay attention to unexpected changes in device operation [42]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price is expected to be strong in the short - term due to the approaching peak demand season, but bearish in the long - term due to abundant supply [42]. Pulp - The price is expected to oscillate widely. The fundamentals are stable, but the upward space is limited [44]. Logs - The price is expected to be under pressure. The inventory is expected to increase, and the market is in the off - season [44]. Urea - A bearish strategy is recommended. The spot price has declined, and the futures price has also decreased [45][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Overall, the finished steel products are supported by raw material costs at the lower end but constrained by inventory at the upper end, expected to trade in a range. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking speed of steel and downstream consumption, with the risk of negative feedback due to the decline in the profitability rate of steel enterprises [3]. - Iron ore prices will continue to be weak in the short term. Macroeconomic data in the US and China are weakening, and overseas risk events are reducing market drivers. Fundamentally, supply remains high, port inventories are accumulating, and demand is weak [20]. - Recently, downstream coke and steel mills have been replenishing stocks, and the inventory structure of coking coal has improved. However, steel mill profits are damaged, and the demand for coking coal and coke has peaked seasonally. In the medium - to - long term, policies restricting coking coal supply and winter storage may affect prices [30]. - Ferroalloys are expected to trade in a range as they return to the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand after the macro - sentiment fades, but are supported by costs [45]. - Soda ash prices are restricted by high inventory but supported by costs. There is a weakening expectation for its rigid demand due to the cold - repair expectation of glass [54]. - Glass sales have weakened recently, and the spot market is under pressure. There is a small expected decline in supply. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but there is cost support and policy expectation in the long - term [80]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3025 yuan/ton, down from 3044 yuan/ton on November 10. The closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3242 yuan/ton, down from 3252 yuan/ton on November 10 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3228 yuan/ton, up from 3223 yuan/ton on November 10. The aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton, down from 3270 yuan/ton on November 10 [8][10]. - **Spreads**: On November 11, 2025, the 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4, the same as on November 10; the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2, also the same as on November 10 [17]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of 01 contract was 763 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from November 10 and 12.5 yuan from November 4 [21]. - **Fundamentals**: As of November 7, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 234.22 tons, down 2.14 tons week - on - week and 7.32 tons month - on - month. The 45 - port inventory was 14898.83 tons, up 356.35 tons week - on - week and 874.33 tons month - on - month [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1238 yuan/ton, unchanged from November 10. The coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1680 yuan/ton, unchanged from November 10 [34]. - **Market Situation**: Recently, downstream coke and steel mills have replenished stocks, and the inventory structure of coking coal has improved. However, steel mill profits are damaged, and the demand for coking coal and coke has peaked seasonally [30]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On November 11, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 42 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan from November 10. The silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from November 10 [45]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On November 11, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 206 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan from November 10. The silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5560 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from November 10 [47]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract was 1292 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from November 10; the 09 contract was 1356 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from November 10; the 01 contract was 1215 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from November 10 [55]. - **Market Situation**: Soda ash prices are restricted by high inventory but supported by costs. There is a weakening expectation for its rigid demand due to the cold - repair expectation of glass [54]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the glass 05 contract was 1184 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan from November 10; the 09 contract was 1261 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan from November 10; the 01 contract was 1053 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from November 10 [81]. - **Market Situation**: Glass sales have weakened recently, and the spot market is under pressure. There is a small expected decline in supply. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but there is cost support and policy expectation in the long - term [80].

Report Summary Key Points - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The steel industry is expected to see a gradual decline in production in the future, with potential for price increases in the latter half with the help of macro funds or policies. The silicon iron and manganese silicon markets are likely to experience price fluctuations due to high supply and weak demand. The coking coal and coke markets are expected to remain volatile, with supply-side support weakening and demand-side pressures increasing. The iron ore market is facing a supply surplus, and prices are likely to decline [5][6][7]. Summary by Category Steel - Futures prices have temporarily stabilized, and spot trading volumes have increased. The short-term macro outlook is uncertain, and the focus is on industry contradictions. Steel production is expected to decline gradually, with potential for price increases in the latter half [5]. - Investment strategy: Hold off on unilateral trading. Consider participating in cash-and-carry arbitrage for hot-rolled coils or using options strategies to assist in spot sales [8]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - Prices are fluctuating due to a decline in market sentiment and external macro factors. The fundamentals are weak, with high supply, large inventory, and weak downstream demand. Prices are likely to be under pressure [5]. - Investment strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading and wait for more information on supply and demand [11]. Coking Coal and Coke - Steel mills have not responded to the fourth round of coke price increases, and the spot market sentiment has weakened. The supply of coking coal is still disrupted, but the upward price drive has weakened. The demand side is facing negative feedback as steel demand enters the off-season [6]. - Investment strategy: Hold off on short-term unilateral trading and consider low-buying in the long term. Industrial customers can consider selling hedges [6][11]. Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore is currently strong, but mainly due to shipping schedules. Iron ore port inventories are expected to continue to rise as steel production declines. The market is facing a supply surplus, and prices are likely to decline [7]. - Investment strategy: Partially take profits on short positions [7][11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, trend - bearish varieties include zinc; shock - bearish varieties include egg, plastic, methanol; shock varieties include soda ash, glass, asphalt, etc.; shock - bullish varieties include lithium carbonate, apple; trend - bullish varieties are not mentioned [2]. - Based on quantitative indicators, bearish varieties include corn, PTA, glass, etc.; shock varieties include coking coal, hot - rolled coil, etc.; bullish varieties include methanol, palm oil, rapeseed oil, etc. [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro News - The US suspends the 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding and other industries for one year. China suspends the special port fees for US ships and anti - countermeasures against 5 US subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. for one year. China adds the US, Mexico, and Canada to the export control list of precursor chemicals [6]. - The US Senate passes a temporary appropriation bill to end the government shutdown, but the final vote time is not arranged, and the bill still needs to be voted by the House of Representatives. The US government shutdown may end before this weekend [6]. - The State Council issues measures to promote private investment, including encouraging private capital to participate in the construction and operation of small - scale urban infrastructure projects [6]. - The Asset Management Association solicits opinions on the management guidelines for the investment style of public - offering theme funds to regulate style drift [7]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation issues compliance tips for the "Double Eleven" online promotion, banning illegal acts such as "big data price discrimination" [7]. - The US and Thailand reach a reciprocal trade framework agreement. Thailand cancels 99% of tariff barriers, and the US maintains a 19% reciprocal tariff [7]. - Switzerland is close to reaching an agreement with the US to reduce tariffs on Swiss goods to 15% [7]. - Fed Governor Milan supports further interest rate cuts. San Francisco Fed President Daly suggests discussing further rate cuts with an "open mind" [8]. - In October, US container imports were 2.31 million TEU, down 7.5% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month. November and December imports are expected to decline [8]. - The new Japanese government asks the central bank to postpone interest rate hikes until at least January next year, but the central bank may raise rates as early as December [8]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a shock - rising strategy and pay attention to the style switch between IH and IC. The A - share market shows differentiation, with inflation data better than expected and export decline affected by high - base and holiday factors [10][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - Monetary policy implementation is in the realization period, and bonds still have upward momentum. Pay attention to the rhythm. The market digests inflation data, and bonds show a strong trend. The decline in exports is affected by multiple factors, and moderately loose monetary policy should be implemented [12]. Black Steel and Iron Ore - In the short term, the black market will be in shock consolidation, and in the medium term (winter), it will maintain a short - on - rallies strategy. Policy events are basically settled, and the industry will return to fundamentals. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for coils is okay. Steel mills' profits are low, and iron ore and other raw material prices are weak [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the impact of mine inspections and downstream molten iron output. In the short term, molten iron output may decline, and coking coal supply is restricted. However, weak steel demand in the off - season and potential negative feedback will limit price increases [16][17]. Ferroalloys - In the long - term, the oversupply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is difficult to ease. Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy. In the short - term, also take a short - on - rallies approach, but be cautious due to the firm performance of manganese ore and rising lanthanum charcoal prices [18]. Soda Ash and Glass - Currently, adopt a wait - and - see strategy. Glass prices are weak, and soda ash prices are strong. Glass enterprises reduce prices after poor sales, and some soda ash plants raise prices due to cost increases and production cuts [19]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Hold short positions at high levels. Domestic zinc inventories slightly increase, and zinc prices are high due to inventory fluctuations and macro - positive factors. Downstream demand is cautious, and spot trading is mainly among traders [21]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the fundamentals are good, but there is an expectation of weakening demand in Q1 next year. After the price correction, consider buying on dips [21]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon has no prominent supply - demand contradiction and will fluctuate within a range. Polysilicon's price is supported by spot prices, and its upper limit depends on capacity merger policies. It will also fluctuate within a narrow range [24]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton prices will fluctuate at a low level. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. The end of the US government shutdown is beneficial for market confidence. Pay attention to USDA reports [28]. Sugar - Domestic sugar prices are under pressure from supply expectations but supported by production costs. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy before new sugar supply increases significantly. Global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus [30]. Eggs - Egg futures are strong due to "capacity reduction" expectations, but the premium over spot may limit the upside. Spot prices may be strong in November but with limited upside. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short near - month contracts [33]. Apples - Apple prices will fluctuate strongly. The apple storage season is nearly over, and inventory is lower than last year. Pay attention to price trends and post - storage sales [35]. Corn - Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the upside pressure on the futures. Corn prices have rebounded, but supply pressure is still accumulating. Pay attention to new - grain sales progress and wheat policy [36]. Red Dates - Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. Weak spot sales in the distribution area drag down new - jujube ordering prices, and the futures fluctuate [38]. Pigs - Supply pressure continues, and demand is average. Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy for near - month contracts and control positions. Supply is high, and short - term sales pressure remains [38]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate. EIA inventories are increasing, and there is an expectation of supply surplus in Q1 next year. OPEC+ slows down production increases, but the long - term supply - demand imbalance remains [41]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices. Supply is loose, and demand is weak. The focus is on supply concerns after sanctions on Russia [43]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to fluctuate weakly due to supply pressure, but production losses may provide some support [44]. Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger. Consider going long on dips with stop - losses. Pay attention to the spread between RU and NR [45]. Synthetic Rubber - Be cautious about going long on synthetic rubber. It may continue to fluctuate weakly due to raw material drag. Pay attention to downstream procurement and macro - sentiment [46]. Methanol - Methanol prices fluctuate greatly. Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy for near - month contracts and wait for a long - entry opportunity for far - month contracts after a rebound driver appears [47]. Caustic Soda - Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy for caustic soda and consider going long on dips. Spot prices are stable, and futures prices are affected by coking coal prices [49]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices are expected to have a larger fluctuation range. The focus is on the price bottom after winter - storage games. Crude oil prices are stable, and asphalt demand is entering the end - stage [50]. Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is expected to be strong in the short - term. Pay attention to unexpected device changes. PX supply is stable, PTA supply pressure may ease, and ethylene glycol inventory is high [51]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - In the long - term, adopt a short strategy for LPG. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate strongly due to the approaching peak demand season [53]. Pulp - Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for pulp. Fundamentals are stable, and the upside space is limited [53]. Logs - Log prices are expected to be under pressure. Fundamentals are weakly balanced, and inventory is expected to increase [54]. Urea - Operate according to policies and pay attention to basis pressure. Adopt a wide - range fluctuation strategy. Spot prices are rising, but the follow - up power is insufficient [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In the short term, due to weak terminal acceptance and seasonal decline in demand, coal and coke prices may face adjustments. However, in the medium to long term, policies restricting over - production and safety inspections will limit the supply elasticity of coking coal. Coupled with winter storage, the downward adjustment space of coking coal spot may be limited. Coal and coke are suitable as long - positions in the black commodity sector [2]. - The recommended trading ranges are 1100 - 1350 for coking coal and 1600 - 1850 for coke. Consider taking partial profits when the prices rebound to the upper end of the ranges [2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Short - term situation**: Recent downstream restocking and reduced mine production have improved coking coal inventory. However, steel mills are in deeper losses, with more planned maintenance, leading to a decline in hot metal production and seasonal weakening of coal and coke demand. Spot valuations are considered too high, and restocking demand has peaked [2]. - **Long - term outlook**: Policies on over - production inspection and safety will limit coking coal supply elasticity. Winter storage is expected to support prices, and coal and coke can be long - positions in the black commodity sector [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Base - spread strategy**: Coking coal basis is high, and end - users with procurement plans can consider buying hedging on the futures market. Coke basis has strengthened, and no cash - and - carry arbitrage strategy is recommended [8]. - **Calendar - spread strategy**: The 1 - 5 reverse spread for coking coal is suspended. It is recommended to wait and see due to unclear reverse - spread logic [8]. - **Hedging and arbitrage strategy**: Short the coking profit on the futures market, with an entry range of 1.5 - 1.55 for the 01 coke/coking coal ratio [8]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory hedging**: Coke producers worried about price drops can short the J2601 contract, with different hedging ratios and entry ranges [11]. - **Procurement management**: Coking plants concerned about rising raw material prices can long the JM2605 contract, with different hedging ratios and entry ranges [11]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Coking coal supply**: Some mining indicators such as 523 mine coking coal production and 314 coal washery production have changed. Inventory has also changed, with an overall increase in total coking coal inventory [12]. - **Coke supply**: Coke production and inventory have changed, with a decrease in total coke inventory [12]. - **Prices**: Spot and futures prices of coking coal and coke, as well as related profit indicators, have shown different trends [13][14][15]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive news**: CPI increased in October, coke prices were raised, and coking coal prices in some areas rose [17]. - **Negative news**: Scrap steel prices dropped, steel mill profitability declined, and steel consumption decreased [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor China's October M2 money supply growth rate, US October CPI, initial jobless claims, China's October retail sales, and industrial added - value [19]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral trend**: The coking coal futures main contract failed to break through the resistance level and may enter a wide - range oscillation [19]. - **Capital flow**: Coking coal long - position holders took profits, and short - positions in coke increased, indicating a cautious market sentiment [21]. - **Calendar - spread structure**: The 1 - 5 positive spread for coking coal has strengthened, and it is recommended to wait and see for the reverse spread [26]. - **Base - spread structure**: Coking coal basis is high, suitable for buying hedging. Coke basis has strengthened, with neutral valuation [32]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Since July, upstream coking coal mines' profits have improved, while downstream coking and steel - making profits have deteriorated. Coke price increases have not significantly improved coking profits, and steel mills are reluctant to accept further price hikes [44]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Mongolian coal long - term contract trade profits have recovered, and customs clearance has increased. Seaborne coal import profits have improved, and coal shipments are expected to remain high [46][49]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply Side and Projections - Coking coal production growth in the fourth quarter is limited, with an estimated weekly production of 960 - 965 tons in November. Import supply is expected to remain high, with an estimated net import of 980 - 1000 tons in November [63]. - Coke production is expected to be 763 - 767 tons per week in November, and exports are linearly extrapolated [65]. 5.2 Demand Side and Projections - Due to shrinking steel mill profits, the estimated daily hot metal production in November is 230 - 232 tons [68]. 5.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - Coking coal and coke supply - demand balance sheets show changes in production, imports, supply, and inventory over different weeks [70].

Group 1: Report Summary - This week, coking coal and coke showed relative resilience in the black steel industry chain, maintaining a sideways oscillation. The macro - level disturbances eased, and the market gradually returned to trading based on its own fundamentals. The strong performance of coking coal was mainly driven by the rising price of thermal coal, reduced inventory pressure on mining enterprises, limited supply increase, and the expectation of winter storage, which released price elasticity. However, the decline in steel mill profitability and hot metal production restricted the upward space of coking coal prices. The short - term futures market is expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the rhythm and intensity of downstream winter storage. As hot metal production gradually declined, coke consumption decreased, but production also dropped, resulting in a relatively balanced supply - demand pattern. The third round of coke price hikes has been implemented, slightly improving the loss of coke enterprises, but they are still in the loss range, and the fourth round of price hikes has been initiated. High furnace material prices have continuously reduced steel mill profitability, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises. Steel mills will resist price hikes more strongly, limiting the profit space of coke enterprises. The subsequent price hike space of coke depends on the upward range of coking coal, and the futures market fluctuates with coking coal [6]. - As of November 4, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.82%, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points, and that of housing construction projects was 53.19%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38 percentage points. Since November 10, 2025, China has suspended the 15% additional tariff on imported coking coal from the United States, and the import tariff has dropped to 13%. Thailand has launched an anti - circumvention investigation into hot - rolled steel plates from China [7]. - Domestic coking coal supply has slightly shrunk. Upstream coking coal inventory has slightly increased, but the pressure is not significant. Independent coke enterprises have slightly replenished coking coal, while steel mills have maintained just - in - time procurement. Coke production has slightly decreased. Hot metal production has declined, leading to lower coke consumption. The third round of price hikes has been implemented, slightly improving the loss situation [7]. Group 2: Bull - Bear Focus - Bullish factors include low inventory pressure of coking coal, strong performance of thermal coal prices, and the expectation of industry winter storage. Bearish factors are the weakening profitability of steel mills, low willingness to replenish raw material inventory, and the decline in hot metal production due to environmental protection factors [10]. Group 3: Data Analysis - As of the week of November 7, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 83.76%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.02%, and the daily average output was 73.83 tons, a decrease of 2.01 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 37.61%, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%, and the daily average output was 27.53 tons, an increase of 1.01 tons. As of the week of November 1, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port rebounded but was slightly lower than the same period last year. Overall, the supply of coking coal has limited room for increase [13]. - As of the week of November 7, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 165.59 tons, an increase of 1.06 tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 294.97 tons, an increase of 10.55 tons; and the port coking coal inventory was 304.27 tons, an increase of 14.12 tons. The downstream replenishment rhythm of coking coal has slowed down, and the inventory depletion rate has decreased, resulting in a slight increase in weekly inventory, but the mine inventory pressure has been significantly reduced [15]. - As of November 7, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 1070.02 tons, an increase of 17.54 tons. The available inventory days were 12.65 days, an increase of 0.4 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coke enterprises was 58.3 tons, a decrease of 1.57 tons. This week, the production and sales of independent coke enterprises were relatively balanced, inventory decreased, and the willingness to replenish coking coal remained, but the replenishment amplitude was narrower than before [18]. - As of November 7, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 787.3 tons, a decrease of 9.02 tons. The available inventory days were 12.84 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory was 626.64 tons, a decrease of 2.41 tons compared with the previous period, and the available days were 11.07 days, a decrease of 0.5 days. Recently, the profitability of steel mills has continuously declined, and the willingness to replenish raw materials is weak, mainly for just - in - time procurement [22]. - As of November 7, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 72.31%, a decrease of 1.13% compared with the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 63.59 tons, a decrease of 1 ton compared with the previous period. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 84.99%, a decrease of 0.22% compared with the previous period, and the daily average coke output was 46.09 tons, a decrease of 0.12 tons compared with the previous period. As downstream consumption weakened, coke production also decreased, resulting in a relatively balanced supply - demand pattern [24]. - As of the week of November 7, China's coke consumption was 105.4 tons, a decrease of 0.96 tons. From the data of 247 steel enterprises, the daily average hot metal output was 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons. Recently, hot metal production has gradually declined, and coke consumption has also decreased, but it is still in a relatively high range [26]. - As of November 7, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises was a loss of 22 yuan/ton. The third round of price hikes has been implemented, slightly improving the loss. However, high raw material prices have continuously reduced steel mill profitability. As of November 7, the profitability of 247 steel enterprises was 39.83%, a further decrease of 5.19% compared with the previous period. The decline in steel mill profitability will intensify the game between steel and coke enterprises, and steel mills will resist price hikes more strongly, delaying the implementation of the next price hike or reducing the possibility of implementation, thus limiting the profit space of coke enterprises [28]. - The spot and futures prices of coking coal and coke maintained a slightly bullish oscillating trend [30]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The strong performance of coking coal is mainly driven by the rising price of thermal coal, reduced inventory pressure on mining enterprises, limited supply increase, and the expectation of winter storage, which releases price elasticity. However, the decline in steel mill profitability and hot metal production restricts the upward space of coking coal prices. The short - term futures market is expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the rhythm and intensity of downstream winter storage [33]. - As hot metal production gradually declines, coke consumption decreases, but production also drops, resulting in a relatively balanced supply - demand pattern. The third round of coke price hikes has been implemented, slightly improving the loss of coke enterprises, but they are still in the loss range, and the fourth round of price hikes has been initiated. High furnace material prices have continuously reduced steel mill profitability, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises. Steel mills will resist price hikes more strongly, limiting the profit space of coke enterprises. The subsequent price hike space of coke depends on the upward range of coking coal, and the futures market fluctuates with coking coal [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The finished products are expected to move in a sideways consolidation manner, with a continued downward trend in price, and the price center of gravity continues to shift downward due to the weak supply - demand pattern and pessimistic market sentiment. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [1][2]. - The price of aluminum is expected to be strong in the short - term, showing a high - level shock. Attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment, mine - end news, inventory - consumption trends, and high - level pressure [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5, and most of the others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [2]. 3.2 Aluminum - Macroscopically, US data shows a weak labor market, increasing the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates again this year. The market is concerned about the impact of Trump's trade policy and the risks related to the long - term government shutdown [1]. - The alumina market has a continuous supply - demand relaxation pattern, with spot prices under pressure. Industry profitability has shrunk, and some high - cost enterprises face operational pressure. Environmental policies may restrict production during the heating season and carbon emission verification [2]. - Downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises have weak procurement willingness, mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. Raw material inventory has accumulated to 3.202 million tons, and the total industry inventory has increased by 92,000 tons to a historical high of 4.599 million tons [2]. - The weekly starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises is 61.6%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from last week. The starting rates of aluminum cables, profiles, strips, and foils have all declined [2]. - On November 6, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 622,000 tons. In November, the pressure of weak inventory accumulation increases, which may have a negative impact on aluminum prices [2].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a range-bound consolidation, with the price center shifting downward and running weakly [2][4]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and mining news. The high inventory pressure in the domestic aluminum ingot market in November is expected to have a negative feedback effect on the subsequent aluminum price [4][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou regional short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January. Anhui's 6 short - process steel mills have also scheduled shutdowns, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3][4]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [4]. - The finished products continued to oscillate downward yesterday, reaching a new recent low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage this year is sluggish, with weak price support [4]. Aluminum Ingots - Macro data shows that the US private employment and non - manufacturing PMI in October were better than expected. The Shanghai aluminum price was high yesterday [3]. - The alumina market is in a state of loose supply and demand, with the spot price under pressure, and the industry's profit margin has shrunk significantly. Although the weekly output of alumina has decreased slightly, the overall operating capacity remains high, and environmental protection policies may bring new constraints to production [4]. - Downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises have weak procurement willingness, and the raw material inventory has continued to accumulate. The total industry inventory has reached a historical high of 4.599 million tons [4]. - The aluminum processing PMI in October fell below the boom - bust line, and the "Silver October" peak season was lackluster. The comprehensive PMI in November may decline further [4]. - As of November 6, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 622,000 tons, and the inventory pressure in November has increased [4].