Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Report Date: April 9, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Due to the unexpected impact of tariff conflicts, the yield of the active 10-year treasury bond has fallen back to the level in early March, and the easing expectation has resurfaced. If the tariff situation does not ease, the probability of China implementing reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in April will significantly increase. If the impact of tariffs on exports and the economy is further reflected in April data, the easing expectation may continue to rise, and treasury bond futures are expected to challenge previous highs [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: With strong signals from multiple departments to stabilize the market, risk aversion declined, the A-share market strengthened, and the bond market slightly corrected [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major term interest rate bonds in the interbank market all rebounded, with a larger increase of about 5bp at the short end and an increase of 3 - 4bp in the yield of the active 10-year treasury bond. By 16:30, the yield of the 10-year active treasury bond 250004 reported 1.6675%, up 2.75bp [9] - **Funding Market**: The central bank's open market operations turned to net injection. The funding situation marginally tightened but remained stable overall. The central bank conducted 1674 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations with 649 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, achieving a net injection of 1025 billion yuan. Short-term interbank funding rates slightly increased, while medium - and long - term funds continued to decline [10] - **Conclusion**: Short - term attention should be paid to the responses of various countries before the additional reciprocal tariffs on April 9. If the situation does not ease, the probability of China implementing reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in April will significantly increase [11][12] 2. Industry News - The US threatens to further impose 50% tariffs on China, and China firmly opposes this. If the US implements tariff escalation measures, China will take countermeasures. The so - called "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the US on China are baseless and a typical act of unilateral bullying [13] - China will impose additional tariffs on imported goods from the US starting from 12:01 on April 10, 2025, adding 34% to the current applicable tariff rates [13] - The global manufacturing PMI in March was 49.6%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The US tariff hikes will lead to a "lose - lose" situation in the short term [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Information on the trading data of treasury bond futures on April 8, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc., is provided [6] - **Money Market**: The central bank's open - market operations, changes in interbank short - term and medium - long - term funding rates are presented [10] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves is provided [34]

Core Viewpoint - The current decline in government bond futures is primarily attributed to the central bank's indication that it may not be the right time for interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions, which diminishes expectations for monetary easing [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On March 17, government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 1.81%, the 10-year main contract down 0.56%, the 5-year main contract down 0.26%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.05% [1]. - The long-end government bonds have adjusted to levels seen before the easing expectations in early December of the previous year, indicating a market correction [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The economic data for January and February released recently mostly exceeded expectations, suggesting that the current economic fundamentals are not weak and continue to support the stock market [1]. - The basic support for the bond market is weakening as the central bank continues to withdraw liquidity, leading to higher funding costs [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - For the bond market to recover, a shift in monetary policy stance is necessary, which may require the emergence of new downside risks in the economy or a weakening of expectations [2]. - Given the current strong economic outlook, the bond market is likely to continue its adjustment in the short term [2].