Market Overview - The market has returned to previous highs, with the Hang Seng Index reaching a new high for the year, while the Hang Seng Tech Index has not yet surpassed its previous high [1] - Both Chinese and US markets are currently stable, awaiting significant trading events in the coming week [2] - The 10-year treasury yield at 1.8% has seen increased institutional buying, indicating ongoing liquidity pressure [1] Investment Strategy - The overall judgment of "stock market oscillation upward" continues, with a focus on marginal funds and pricing direction this week [1] - Three key investment directions are suggested: 1. Small-cap growth manufacturing sectors benefiting from easing policies (robotics, new energy, machinery) [1] 2. Cyclical sectors such as real estate and dividends [1] 3. Undervalued sectors like pharmaceuticals that continue to attract active funds [1] Hot Topics - Various ETFs are highlighted for different investment strategies, including: - High-tech ETFs focused on artificial intelligence and innovation [2] - Financial technology ETFs and brokerage ETFs as part of a bull market strategy [2] - ETFs related to food and internet sectors for recovery plays [2] - The market's structural expectations are anticipated to clarify during the upcoming trading week [2] Global Context - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and new rounds of negotiations between China and the US are key global focus points [2] - There is a notable contrast between global easing expectations and domestic liquidity conditions [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US plans to include more steel and aluminum derivatives in the tariff scope, increasing short - term tariff risks. The market is preparing for the Fed's rate cut this week, leading to a weaker dollar and rising global risk appetite. Domestically, China's consumption, investment, and industrial增加值 in August were lower than previous values and market expectations, with slowing domestic demand. The Ministry of Finance will advance the issuance of part of the new local government debt quota for 2026 and take multiple measures to resolve existing implicit debts. Short - term external risk uncertainty is reduced, and domestic easing expectations are enhanced, leading to an overall increase in domestic risk appetite. The recent market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a strengthened short - term upward macro - drive. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; government bonds are short - term oscillating weakly, and cautious observation is advised; in the commodity sector, black metals are short - term oscillating, and short - term cautious observation is needed; non - ferrous metals are short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and cautious observation is required; precious metals are short - term oscillating strongly at high levels, and cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overseas, the US tariff risk increases, the dollar weakens, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, economic data is lower than expected, domestic demand slows, but policy expectations are positive, and domestic risk appetite also increases. The trading logic focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, and the short - term macro - drive is upward [3]. - Asset trends: the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, government bonds are short - term oscillating weakly, black metals are short - term oscillating, non - ferrous metals are short - term oscillating strongly, energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and precious metals are short - term oscillating strongly at high levels [3]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as small metals, precious metals, and military industry, the domestic stock market declined slightly. Domestic economic data is weak, but policy expectations are positive, and risk appetite increases. The trading logic focuses on policies and easing expectations, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets continued to rebound on Monday, but trading volume was low. Macroeconomic data in August was weak, increasing anti - involution expectations. Real - world demand is weak, with different trends among varieties. Supply has shown some changes, and the steel market is likely to oscillate in the short term [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined slightly on Monday. Iron - making water production increased, and supply is at a high level. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded slightly on Monday. Supply is increasing slightly, and the market is in a state of game. The prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash was strong on Monday. Supply is increasing, and the pattern of over - supply remains. Demand is weak, and it should be treated with a medium - to - long - term bearish view, while being vigilant about short - term positive impacts [6]. - **Glass**: The main contract of glass was strong on Monday. Supply is stable, and demand has limited growth. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Macroeconomic factors lead to a weaker dollar and a rise in copper prices. However, considering the global economic slowdown and weakening domestic demand, the upward space is limited [8]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices oscillated on Monday. Inventory increased unexpectedly, and the mid - term upward space is limited, with slow de - stocking expected [8]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited [9]. - **Tin**: Supply is affected by short - term factors, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the upward space is limited [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose on Monday. Supply and demand are both increasing, and the market is expected to oscillate and stabilize [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon rose on Monday. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon fell slightly on Monday. With rumors of storage and capacity reduction, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is weighing measures to restrict Russian oil and supply - surplus expectations. Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities and the expected Fed rate cut provide short - term support for oil prices [12]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt rebounded with the rise in oil prices. The upward space is limited, and attention should be paid to the follow - up with oil prices [13]. - **PX**: The price of PX rebounded slightly. It is in a tight pattern and is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - **PTA**: The price of PTA rebounded slightly. Downstream and terminal开工 rates have different recovery situations, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol sector heated up slightly, but inventory increased, and downstream demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [14]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber adjusted slightly. Terminal orders increased seasonally, but the upward space is limited, and it can be shorted on rallies in the medium term [14]. - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is rising. However, there are some supporting factors, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [14]. - **PP**: Production decreased due to maintenance, and downstream demand improved, but supply is still loose. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [14]. - **LLDPE**: Supply increased, and demand improved slightly. With low inventory and a weak market sentiment, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure is expected to increase. Demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term, but short - term support may come from downstream replenishment [16][17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans declined slightly. Export inspection data was better than expected, and Brazilian drought may support the market [18]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic short - term supply - demand situation is surplus. The supply pressure of soybean meal is large, and the price is expected to improve in late September and October. Rapeseed meal has high inventory, but there is an upward basis in the later period [19]. - **Oils and Fats**: The supply of soybean oil is sufficient, and consumption support is limited. The supply of rapeseed oil decreased. The production of palm oil in Malaysia is affected by floods, and domestic demand is weakening, with increasing inventory [20][21]. - **Corn**: The initial listing price of new - season corn is chaotic, with a slight year - on - year increase. The price is expected to be strong, and the futures price has low - valuation support [21]. - **Pigs**: The planned slaughter of large - scale pig farms increased in September, demand has no obvious increase, and the price rebound expectation is reduced. There may be pressure on the price from October to November, which may promote capacity reduction [21].

Group 1: Gold Price Surge - Gold prices reached a record high of $3,674.27 per ounce, surpassing the previous peak of $850 per ounce (adjusted for inflation) [1] - The price of gold has increased approximately 5% this month and nearly 40% year-to-date, highlighting its status as a safe-haven asset amid macroeconomic uncertainties [1] - Factors such as rising unemployment claims and persistent high core CPI contributed to the recent surge in gold prices, with analysts suggesting a constructive outlook for gold in the coming months [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Recent economic data indicates a cooling U.S. economy, with the August CPI rising 2.9%, the largest increase in seven months, and a decline in the PPI [2] - Non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs in August, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, raising concerns about stagflation [2] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve have increased, with traders fully pricing in this possibility [2] Group 3: Factors Driving Gold Prices - U.S. tax cuts and tariffs, along with challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve, have diminished the attractiveness of the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, leading to increased investment in gold [3] - Historical perspectives on gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation are being reinforced by current economic conditions and geopolitical uncertainties [3] - Goldman Sachs projects gold prices could reach $3,700 by the end of 2025 and potentially $4,000 by mid-2026, with scenarios suggesting prices could even hit $4,500 to $5,000 if there is a significant outflow from dollar assets [3] Group 4: Central Bank Trends and Future Outlook - Central banks are diversifying their foreign reserves, with gold's share in reserves rising since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, making it the second-largest reserve asset globally [4] - The future trajectory of gold prices will depend on Federal Reserve policy and global risk events, with historical trends indicating that rate-cutting periods enhance gold's appeal [4] - The ongoing gold market rally is supported by a broad investor base and policy uncertainties, positioning gold as both an inflation hedge and a beneficiary of global asset reallocation [4]

Group 1 - The French stock market continues to strengthen, with the CAC40 index rising by 0.1% to 7835 points, marking the fifth consecutive trading day of gains [1] - Market expectations are leaning towards a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, driven by recent U.S. inflation data meeting expectations and an increase in initial jobless claims to a nearly four-year high, reinforcing easing expectations [1] - The European Central Bank has indicated that the rate-cutting cycle may be coming to an end, with President Lagarde stating that the decline in inflation is largely complete and economic growth risks are becoming more balanced [1] Group 2 - Investors are closely watching for the announcement of France's sovereign credit rating by Fitch, which is expected to be released after today's market close [1] - Euronext has announced that TP (formerly Teleperformance) will be removed from the CAC40 index starting September 22 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US macro - fundamentals are stable, but political pressure on the Fed has pushed up market expectations of interest - rate cuts. There are still tail risks such as sticky service inflation, tariff shocks, and concerns about Fed independence. The overseas liquidity is expected to expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel, which may support the recovery of total demand [7]. - Domestic: Market expectations for corporate profit margins have improved, and the "anti - involution" has promoted the continued improvement of mid - stream profits in July. Real - estate policies in first - tier cities have been relaxed, with a relatively weak overall intensity, aiming to support developer liquidity. After important events in early September, China may enter the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the fundamentals may have a greater impact on asset pricing, especially for short - duration commodity assets [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: The US macro - fundamentals are stable, but political pressure on the Fed has reached a new high, pushing up market expectations of interest - rate cuts. The willingness of US consumers to buy real estate, cars, and household durables fluctuates widely at a low level, and real salary growth is flat. There are still tail risks [7]. - Domestic Macro: Market expectations for corporate profit margins have improved, and the "anti - involution" has affected the profit distribution among industries. In the real - estate sector, first - tier cities have introduced policies to relax restrictions, with a relatively weak overall intensity and more relaxation in suburban new homes in core cities [7]. - Asset Views: Short - term market volatility may increase in early September in China. After important events, the fundamentals may play a more important role in asset pricing. Overseas, liquidity will expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, and non - US dollar assets are worth attention [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock Index Futures: Market sentiment is ebbing, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention paid to the decline of incremental funds [8]. - Stock Index Options: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to the deterioration of option market liquidity [8]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The stock - bond seesaw is playing out again, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: The US interest - rate cut cycle may restart in September, and the market is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention paid to the US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter is fading, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to the rate of freight - rate decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel: The market is weak, and it is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and hot - metal production [8]. - Iron Ore: The hot - metal production is decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate, with attention paid to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot - metal production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics [8]. - Coke: The bearish sentiment is growing, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [8]. - Coking Coal: Many coal mines stopped production yesterday, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [8]. - Ferrosilicon: The futures price is at a low level, and it is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to raw - material costs and steel tenders [8]. - Manganese Silicon: The cost support is insufficient, and the futures price is expected to be weak, with attention paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - Glass: The mid - stream inventory is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate, with attention paid to spot sales [8]. - Soda Ash: The production is increasing, and the inventory may accumulate again, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to soda - ash inventory [8]. - Copper: China and the US have extended the tariff suspension, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with attention paid to supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed policies, and domestic demand recovery [8]. - Alumina: The spot market is weakly stable, and the warehouse receipts are increasing, and the market is expected to be under pressure, with attention paid to ore复产, electrolytic - aluminum复产, and extreme market trends [8]. - Aluminum: The social inventory is slightly accumulating, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with attention paid to macro - risks, supply disruptions, and demand [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Zinc: The prices of black - series products have fallen, and the zinc price is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention paid to macro - risks and zinc - ore supply [8]. - Lead: The consumption situation is unclear, and the lead price is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention paid to supply - side disruptions and battery exports [8]. - Nickel: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely, with attention paid to macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and supply release [8]. - Stainless Steel: The price of ferronickel is rising, and the stainless - steel futures price is expected to decline, with attention paid to Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - Tin: The raw - material supply is still tight, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with attention paid to the复产 expectations in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - Industrial Silicon: Coal prices are fluctuating, and the silicon price is expected to rise while fluctuating, with attention paid to supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The multi - empty game continues, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely, with attention paid to demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Concerns about production increases have resurfaced, and the oil price is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention paid to OPEC+ production policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation [10]. - LPG: The valuation repair is over, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to cost - end developments such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - Asphalt: Crude - oil prices are fluctuating, and the upward trend of asphalt has slowed down, and the market is expected to decline, with attention paid to sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The futures price is fluctuating, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to geopolitics and crude - oil prices [10]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It follows the crude - oil market, and the price is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention paid to crude - oil prices [10]. - Methanol: Port inventory is accumulating, and the olefin market is declining, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10]. - Urea: The domestic supply - demand is relatively loose, waiting for the recovery of autumn demand and export release, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to actual export implementation [10]. - Ethylene Glycol: The low - inventory fundamentals and macro - sentiment are in a game, and the downward support is strong, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to coal and oil prices, port - inventory rhythm, and unexpected device shutdowns [10]. - PX: The market atmosphere has cooled, and the upward support is insufficient, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to crude - oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and the peak - season demand [10]. - PTA: The terminal market atmosphere has cooled slightly, but the tight supply - demand still supports the price, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to crude - oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and the peak - season demand [10]. - Short - Fiber: The downstream is观望, and the peak - season performance needs to be verified, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to downstream yarn - mill purchasing and unexpected device production cuts [10]. - Bottle Chip: Mainstream large - scale manufacturers continue to reduce production, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to unexpected production increases and overseas export orders [10]. - Propylene: It follows the PP market in the short term, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic macro - situation [10]. - PP: The pressure of new production capacity is increasing, and the market is expected to be weakly volatile, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - Plastic: The oil price is falling, and the plastic price is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - Styrene: The commodity sentiment has improved, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - PVC: The weak reality suppresses the market, and the PVC price is expected to be weakly volatile, with attention paid to expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - Caustic Soda: The spot rebound has slowed down, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Oils and Fats: The market is continuously adjusting, and it is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil production and demand data [10]. - Protein Meal: The protein - meal price is fluctuating narrowly, and it is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and trade wars [10]. - Corn/Starch: The replenishment is over, and the market is expected to be weak, with attention paid to demand, macro - situation, and weather [10]. - Live Pigs: The demand support is insufficient, and the price is expected to remain low, with attention paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - Rubber: The short - term driving force is not obvious, and the market is expected to be range - bound, with attention paid to production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - Synthetic Rubber: The market is expected to be range - bound, with attention paid to crude - oil fluctuations [10]. - Pulp: The spot trading is light, and the core driving force of pulp futures is difficult to determine, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to macro - economic changes and US - dollar - based quotes [10]. - Cotton: The cotton price has support, but the upward driving force is insufficient, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to demand and inventory [10]. - Sugar: The sugar price continues to decline, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to imports [10]. - Logs: The spot price is falling, and the market is expected to be weakly volatile, with attention paid to shipment volume and transportation volume [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term market volatility may increase. After important events, China may gradually enter the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the pricing weight of fundamentals for assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Overseas liquidity will maintain an expansion trend in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak US dollar" repair channel, which is expected to support the recovery of total demand and form a positive feedback between sentiment and overseas macro - fundamentals. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US macro - fundamentals are relatively stable, but the political pressure on the Fed has reached a new high, boosting market expectations of interest rate cuts. At the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting in August, Powell's dovish stance exceeded market expectations. On August 25, Trump removed the hawkish Fed governor Cook, further increasing market expectations of interest rate cuts. Currently, the US consumer's willingness to buy real estate, cars, and household durables is fluctuating widely at a low level, and the actual salary growth of US consumers is flat. The ability of residents to consume still awaits the transmission of interest rate cuts. Loose expectations and asset revaluation are expected to have a positive feedback effect on investment and consumption, but sticky service inflation, tariff shocks, and concerns about the Fed's independence remain tail risks [8] - **Domestic Macro**: Market expectations for corporate profit margins have improved. "Anti - involution" has promoted the continued improvement of mid - stream profits in July. Recently, demand - side policies in first - tier cities have been frequently introduced. The marginal relaxation of policies is expected to boost trading volume, but the sustainability remains to be seen. From January to July, the year - on - year decline in the profits of national industrial enterprises above the designated size narrowed to - 1.7%. "Anti - involution" has enabled the raw material processing industry to obtain a larger share of profits, while both upstream mining and downstream consumer goods industries have seen their profits squeezed. The issue of anti - involution still has a long way to go. In the real estate sector, first - tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have successively introduced policies to relax purchase restrictions and optimize provident funds. Compared with previous policies, the overall intensity of this round of policies is relatively weak. Structurally, the relaxation of new homes in the suburbs of core cities is relatively stronger, aiming to guide residents to digest the inventory of suburban new homes first, which has a marginal support for developers' liquidity [8] - **Asset Views**: Short - term market volatility may increase. After important events, China may gradually enter the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the pricing weight of fundamentals for assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Overseas liquidity will maintain an expansion trend in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak US dollar" repair channel, which is expected to support the recovery of total demand and form a positive feedback between sentiment and overseas macro - fundamentals. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [8] 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: For stock index futures, the chips show signs of loosening, and the short - term judgment is volatile upward. For stock index options, the strategy is mainly for hedging and defense, and the short - term judgment is volatile. For treasury bond futures, continue to pay attention to the performance of the stock market, and the short - term judgment is volatile [9] - **Precious Metals**: The expansion of interest rate cut expectations is beneficial to the price. For gold and silver, it is expected that the US interest rate cut cycle may restart in September, but the impact of market risk appetite needs to be noted. The short - term judgment is volatile upward [9] - **Shipping**: For the container shipping route to Europe, the peak season in the third quarter has turned dull, and there is a lack of upward driving force due to loading pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile [9] - **Black Building Materials**: After the parade, there are still upward expectations for the sector. For products such as steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc., they are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [9] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The weak US dollar continues to support non - ferrous metals, but the weakening demand also needs to be emphasized. Most products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [9] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The weakening of crude oil supply - demand and the decline of coking coal have dragged down the chemical industry. Most products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [11] - **Agriculture**: The agricultural sector is in a high - level narrow - range volatility, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, concerns about government fiscal conditions have intensified, leading to multi - year high yields on UK and French government bonds, a decline in the pound and euro, and a rebound in the US dollar. The global risk appetite has cooled. In China, the official manufacturing PMI in August improved slightly to 49.4 but remained below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. The extension of the 90 - day tariff truce between China and the US and the increased expectation of US monetary easing have reduced short - term external risks and increased domestic risk appetite. The market is focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a marginal increase in short - term macro - upward drivers. [2] - For different assets: the stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and cautious observation is advised; the black commodity sector is expected to be slightly weaker in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended; the non - ferrous sector is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; the energy and chemical sector is expected to rebound in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended; precious metals are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and cautious long positions are recommended. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, concerns about government finances have led to high bond yields in the UK and France, a decline in the pound and euro, and a rise in the US dollar. A US federal appellate court's ruling on tariffs and the assessment of Trump's tariff policy have cooled global risk appetite. In China, the August official manufacturing PMI improved slightly but was below the boom - bust line. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption. The extension of the tariff truce and US easing expectations have increased domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro - upward drivers strengthening. [2] - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as communications, electronics, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market declined slightly. The August official manufacturing PMI improved slightly but was below the boom - bust line. Policy support and reduced external risks have increased domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations. Short - term cautious observation is recommended. [3] - **Government Bonds**: Government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and cautious observation is advised. [2] Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to be weak on Tuesday, with a slight increase in trading volume. Real - world demand continued to weaken, but there may be a seasonal improvement in September - October. Supply remained high, with the average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in August at 2.115 million tons, a 2% month - on - month increase, and a 4% increase in steel inventories. Although supply may decline temporarily due to production restrictions, steel mills are likely to resume production next week. Coke price increases were blocked and instead decreased. The steel market is likely to remain weak in the short term. [4] - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, the spot price of iron ore rebounded slightly, and the futures price oscillated. Due to production restrictions, steel mills' demand decreased, and they mainly replenished inventory on a just - in - time basis. Last week, the pig iron output was over 2.4 million tons but decreased significantly. The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 2.41 million tons to 35.56 million tons this week, and the arrival volume increased by 1.827 million tons. The supply of mainstream Australian powder was stable, but traders were reluctant to sell at low prices. The port inventory decreased slightly by 120,000 tons. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. [6] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Tuesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,680 - 5,730 yuan/ton. Manganese ore prices were weak. Inner Mongolia's production was stable, with new high - silicon production this month and planned new capacity in October. Ningxia's production was stable, and some southern factories were in losses. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas was 5,150 - 5,300 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade was 5,750 - 5,950 yuan/ton. Although silicon iron profits were compressed, electricity costs provided support, and producers were reluctant to cut production. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term. [7] - **Soda Ash**: On Tuesday, the main soda ash contract oscillated. Last week, the weekly production of soda ash decreased. With new capacity coming online, supply pressure remained, and the oversupply situation persisted, with new installations planned for the fourth quarter. Demand was stable week - on - week, but overall support from downstream demand was weak. Profits decreased week - on - week, and the industry was in a loss. Soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term due to high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. [8] - **Glass**: On Tuesday, the main glass contract oscillated. Last week, glass production was stable, with an increase in the start - up rate and the number of production lines. Terminal real estate demand remained weak, but downstream deep - processing orders increased in mid - August, and overall demand was stable. Profits increased slightly. Glass is expected to oscillate in the short term due to stable supply and limited demand growth. [8] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: On Tuesday, concerns about the UK economy and rising global bond yields led to a rise in the UK's long - term borrowing costs and a fall in the pound against the US dollar. With the decline of factors such as export rush, over - installation in the photovoltaic industry, and the diminishing marginal effect of the trade - in policy, domestic copper demand will weaken. However, the expected Fed rate cut in September may boost copper prices temporarily. [9] - **Aluminum**: On Tuesday, the closing price of aluminum rose slightly but fell slightly at the end of the session, with a decrease in open interest of 7,398 lots. Aluminum inventory increased to 623,000 tons, exceeding the previous expectation of 600,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 1,450 tons, reaching a neutral level. In the medium term, the upside potential of aluminum prices is limited, but in the short term, there is still a peak - season expectation, and there is no strong downward driver, so it is expected to oscillate. The recent rise in gold prices may have a limited positive impact on copper and aluminum prices. [10] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants is rising. It is still the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing slowly. Considering cost support, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand. [10] - **Tin**: The combined start - up rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased by 0.21% to 59.43%. Some smelters in Yunnan were under maintenance, and the supply of tin ore was tight in reality but expected to ease. The import of African tin ore decreased in July due to transportation and power issues. Terminal demand was weak, and the inventory decreased by 117 tons to 9,161 tons last week. As prices rose, downstream procurement slowed down. Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, supported by smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations but restricted by high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weak demand. [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Tuesday, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 fell 4.3% to a settlement price of 74,180 yuan/ton, with an increase in open interest of 19,567 lots to a total of 761,400 lots. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,250 yuan/ton, a 1,750 - yuan decrease. The price of Australian lithium spodumene was 860 US dollars/ton, a 20 - dollar decrease. The production profit of purchasing lithium spodumene was 50 yuan/ton. Lithium carbonate inventory is gradually decreasing, and it is expected to oscillate widely, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook. [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: On Tuesday, the main industrial silicon contract 2511 rose 1.13% to a settlement price of 8,515 yuan/ton, with a decrease in open interest of 12,531 lots to 491,200 lots. The price of oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9,100 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase. The futures price was at a discount of 630 yuan/ton. The price difference between 421 and 553 in East China was 300 yuan/ton. With polysilicon prices oscillating at a high level, industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short term. [12] - **Polysilicon**: On Tuesday, the main polysilicon contract 2511 rose 3.97% to a settlement price of 51,985 yuan/ton, with a decrease in open interest of 8,457 lots to 318,000 lots. The price of N - type polysilicon was 50,500 yuan/ton, a 1,000 - yuan increase. The price of P - type cauliflower - shaped polysilicon was 30,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of N - type silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece, a 0.01 - yuan increase. The price of single - crystal Topcon battery cells (M10) was 0.292 yuan/watt, unchanged. The price of N - type modules (centralized): 182mm was 0.66 yuan/watt, unchanged. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 6,870, a decrease of 10 lots. Rumors of a "industry restructuring plan" by GCL Technology have increased market expectations of capacity integration. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality. [13] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Technical buying and supply disruptions drove the rebound of crude oil prices, with the largest increase since the end of July. Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries have affected crude oil supply, and the US will study sanctions on Russia this week. The Cushing inventory is still low. However, attention should be paid to the OPEC+ production decision this Sunday. [14][15] - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices rise, the asphalt futures price also increases, driven by cost factors in the short term. Currently, asphalt is still weak, with a slightly decreasing basis. The social inventory has not decreased significantly, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly. Profits have recovered slightly, and the start - up rate has increased significantly. In the future, crude oil prices may be affected by OPEC+ production increases, and the follow - up increase of asphalt prices needs to be monitored. [15] - **PX**: Although crude oil prices are rising, the increase in downstream petrochemical products is limited. The low start - up rate of PTA has kept the PX price weak, supported only by maintenance plans. The PX supply is still tight, with the PXN spread decreasing slightly to 251 US dollars and the PX foreign price rebounding to 848 US dollars. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, waiting for changes in PTA installations. [15] - **PTA**: Recently, the start - up rate of PTA has dropped to a seasonal low due to environmental protection requirements and low processing fees. The high basis has weakened, and the processing fee has recovered, indicating a high possibility of supply recovery. The demand growth has slowed down, with a downstream start - up rate of only 89.8%. PTA is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the recovery risks of crude oil and downstream demand. [16] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to problems with overseas installations, the import forecast has been low recently, leading to a significant decrease in port inventory to 440,000 tons. The load of syngas - based production units is already high, and there is limited room for further increase. The impact of the petrochemical industry's capacity adjustment on ethylene glycol is relatively limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short term, but attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream start - up rates and crude oil cost fluctuations. [16] - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber rose with the sector but then declined slightly. The overall strength of the polyester sector is still insufficient. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, and the start - up rate of short - fiber has rebounded slightly, with a limited increase in inventory. Further inventory reduction depends on the continuous recovery of terminal orders. In the medium term, short - fiber is expected to follow the polyester sector and may be shorted on rallies. [16] - **Methanol**: The restart of inland installations and concentrated arrivals have increased supply pressure. As the port price falls, the reflux window has opened, providing some support to the spot market. MTO installations are planned to restart, and the traditional downstream peak season is approaching, indicating a marginal improvement in the fundamentals. However, the oversupply situation remains, and high inventory continues to suppress prices. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. [17] - **PP**: The start - up rate of PP installations has increased, and new capacity has been put into operation, resulting in a record - high weekly supply. The downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, but demand growth is weak. Although there is policy support, the downside is limited. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly. [17] - **LLDPE**: Currently, maintenance has relieved some supply pressure, and downstream demand is gradually increasing, with a decrease in inventory. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. However, as maintenance ends and supply recovers, pressure will increase, and attention should be paid to the synchronous growth of demand. The price is expected to oscillate. [17] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, the November soybean contract on the CBOT closed at 1,040.00, a decrease of 14.50 or 1.38% (settlement price: 1,041.00). As of August 31, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. The pod - setting rate was 94%, and the leaf - falling rate was 11%. The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans as of August 28, 2025, was 472,914 tons, higher than the market expectation. Since the beginning of this crop year, the cumulative export inspection volume has reached 49.763188 million tons, higher than the same period last year. [19] - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures price is likely to be under pressure in the short term. In China, the increase in imported soybean sales and the high procurement and start - up rate of oilseeds in the third quarter have increased the inventory pressure. The basis is difficult to repair in the short term. The rapeseed meal market is also weak, and attention should be paid to the trade policy between China and Canada. [20] - **Oils**: Overnight, the CBOT soybean oil futures price rose by 1% due to the decline in soybean oil inventory. The BMD palm oil futures price may open higher, supported by strong palm oil exports from Malaysia and a weakening ringgit. According to high - frequency data, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 15.37% (AmSpec) and 30.53% (SGS) in August 2025 compared with the same period last year. Ukraine has imposed a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseeds until January 1, 2030, and the tax rate will decrease by 1% annually until it reaches 5%. [20] - **Corn**: New - season corn has started to be harvested in Liaoning, and farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices. The futures market has rebounded recently, which is beneficial to market sentiment. This year, there is no pressure from a large - scale arrival of corn at ports, and the inventory at ports and downstream enterprises is low. The estimated cost of new - season corn in North China is 1,960 - 2,020 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang, it is at least 2,100 yuan/ton. Referring to the policy - supported wheat market, it is expected that during the new - season corn harvest period, farmers will be reluctant to sell when the price in North China is below 2,220 yuan/ton and in the northern ports is below 2,130 yuan/ton, and traders will be more willing to store corn. It is estimated that the opening price of the main C2511 contract may be slightly higher than last year, and if there are no unexpected weather risks during the harvest, the main operating range of the opening - price market may be 2,150 - 2,250 yuan/ton. [21] - **Pigs**: In September, the supply and demand of pigs will both increase. In August, large - scale farms increased pre

Market Dynamics - As of the latest trading day, COMEX gold futures have surpassed $2200 per ounce, with silver also rising, showing an annual increase of over 15% [2] - Domestic gold futures have reached historical highs, making them one of the best-performing asset classes this year [2] Core Logic Behind the Rise - **Increased Risk Aversion**: Ongoing geopolitical risks (Middle East conflicts, Russia-Ukraine situation) and heightened concerns over global economic slowdown have led to increased volatility in the stock market, driving funds into precious metals as a safe haven [3] - **Support from Easing Expectations**: The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts within the year, while central banks globally continue to increase their gold reserves, with 2023 seeing record-high gold purchases. The decline in real interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold [3] Observational Insights - Historically, precious metal markets tend to perform strongest during periods of overlapping "risk events" and "monetary easing." Currently, the market is facing several conditions: acceleration of global "de-dollarization," institutionalization of central bank gold demand, and concentrated long positions in the derivatives market [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10] Core View - The dovish signal from Fed Governor Waller indicates that the gold and silver markets will continue to trade on the expectation of future monetary easing. Gold and silver prices are expected to show a moderately bullish trend in the near term, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 760 yuan/gram and 800 yuan/gram, and the Ag2510 contract between 9,200 yuan/kilogram and 9,600 yuan/kilogram [8][10] Market Analysis Economic Data - The annualized revised value of the US real GDP in Q2 showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.1% and the initial value of 3%. The annualized revised value of the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index in Q2 increased by 2.5% quarter-on-quarter, consistent with the initial value but lower than the expected 2.6% [1] Employment Market - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 229,000, compared to an expected 230,000, and the previous value was revised from 235,000 to 234,000 [1] Interest Rates - Fed Governor Waller supports a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the September meeting and expects further cuts in the next 3 - 6 months. He believes that unless the August employment report shows a significant economic slowdown and inflation is well - controlled, there is no need for a larger - scale rate cut in September [1] Tariffs - The European Commission proposed to cancel import tariffs on US industrial products on Thursday, which is part of a trade agreement with the US. This agreement could retroactively reduce US tariffs on European cars [1] Futures Market Gold Futures - On August 28, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 782.00 yuan/gram and closed at 783.22 yuan/gram, a change of 0.26% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 783.00 yuan/gram and closed at 785.02 yuan/gram, up 0.23% from the afternoon close [2] Silver Futures - On August 28, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,287.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,377.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.77% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 337,242 lots, and the open interest was 278,545 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,390 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,405 yuan/kilogram, up 0.30% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On August 28, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond closed at 4.203%, up 0.19 basis points from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds was 0.572%, down 0.22 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange Gold - On the Au2508 contract, there were no changes in both long and short positions compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of gold contracts on the previous trading day was 192,127 lots, a change of 0.04% from the previous trading day [4] Silver - On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots, and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 583,887 lots, a change of 30.49% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings increased by 5.44 tons to 967.94 tons compared to the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings increased by 57.89 tons to 15,332.59 tons [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Spot - Futures Price Difference - On August 28, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was - 12.99 yuan/gram, and for silver, it was - 783.07 yuan/kilogram [6] Gold - Silver Ratio - The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 83.53, a change of - 0.51% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 88.49, a change of 0.79% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On August 28, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 30,942 kilograms, a change of 13.32% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 475,098 kilograms, a change of 33.92% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 12,518 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 60 kilograms [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term macro upward drive is marginally strengthening, with the market focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3]. - Different asset classes are expected to show short - term range - bound trends, and specific investment strategies vary according to different sectors. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: The attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook has raised concerns about central bank independence, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. - Domestic: China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. Policy stimulus has been strengthened, and the short - term external risk uncertainty has decreased while domestic easing expectations have increased, resulting in an overall increase in domestic risk appetite. - Asset Recommendations: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level, and cautious observation is advised; commodities in different sectors are generally expected to oscillate in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended [2]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as rare earth concepts, biomedicine, and small metals, the domestic stock market declined slightly. - With the strengthening of policy stimulus, the reduction of short - term external risk uncertainty, and the increase in domestic easing expectations, the short - term macro upward drive is marginally strengthening. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported in the short term due to increased concerns about independence, rising risk of stagflation, and strengthened rate - cut expectations. However, attention should be paid to the Fed's attitude changes, and the market focus is on the upcoming US PCE data [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures markets of steel continued to be weak. Demand was weak, inventory increased, and supply was expected to decline in the future. With strong cost support, a range - bound approach is recommended in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined. With strong northern production - restriction expectations, cautious procurement by steel mills, and increasing supply pressure, a range - bound approach is expected in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices were flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. Supply in some regions was increasing, but there were potential production - cut plans. A range - bound approach is recommended in the short term [7][8]. - **Soda Ash**: There is a situation of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor suppressing prices. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [9]. - **Glass**: Supply is stable, demand is difficult to increase significantly, and it is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term under the boost of real - estate news [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The impact of Trump's attempt to remove Cook on the copper market is expected to be small in the short term, and domestic demand is expected to weaken marginally [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: The price declined slightly. The fundamentals changed little, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term with limited upward space [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, production costs are rising, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term with limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: Supply is expected to be relatively loose in the long term, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: After the previous sentiment subsided, it is expected to oscillate in a wide range, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to oscillate in a range, considering the high - level oscillation of black metals and polysilicon [13]. - **Polysilicon**: It is facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about the Fed's independence and the potential impact of US tariffs on India's oil imports have affected oil prices. There is still some support for oil prices in the near term [16]. - **Asphalt**: Supported by anti - involution in the petrochemical industry and rising crude oil prices, but with limited inventory reduction, it is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the near term [16]. - **PX**: It is in a tight situation in the short term and is expected to oscillate while waiting for changes in PTA device operations [16]. - **PTA**: Driven by capacity adjustments and increased downstream demand, it is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillating pattern in the short term [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory has decreased slightly. Supported by downstream demand recovery, but facing supply pressure, short - term buying on dips should pay attention to crude oil cost fluctuations [18][19]. - **Short - fiber**: Driven by sector resonance, its price increased slightly. It is expected to follow the polyester sector and may be shorted on rallies in the medium term [19]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are showing marginal improvement, but the oversupply situation remains. It is expected to oscillate in price [19]. - **PP**: Supply pressure is increasing, but there is policy support. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should focus on peak - season inventory - building [19]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure remains, and demand shows signs of turning. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should focus on demand and inventory - building [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The selling pressure of US Treasuries has increased, and the weakening of the US dollar has provided some support to commodities. The expected Sino - US trade negotiations have boosted the export sales expectations of US soybeans [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic soybean and soybean meal in oil mills has eased. Rapeseed meal still has the basis for upward fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the development of Sino - Canadian trade relations [21]. - **Oils**: Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the supply is expected to shrink; soybean oil is expected to have a low - valuation price - increase market; palm oil is expected to enter an oscillating phase [21]. - **Corn**: The national corn price is running weakly. The futures price has entered a relatively low - valuation range, and there is a low possibility of breaking through the previous range [21]. - **Pigs**: The weight of pigs has declined, and the second - fattening market is cautious. The market's pessimistic sentiment about the fourth - quarter outlook has increased [22].