| 锌 ： | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 现货升贴水 | 上海锌锭价格 | 天津锌锭价格 | 广东锌锭价格 | 锌社会库存 | 沪锌交易所库存 | | 2025/09/18 | -50 | 22010 | 21980 | 22000 | 14.78 | 87032 | | 2025/09/19 | -50 | 21990 | 21980 | 21980 | 14.78 | 99315 | | 2025/09/22 | -50 | 21950 | 21950 | 21950 | 14.61 | 99315 | | 2025/09/23 | -50 | 21880 | 21880 | 21880 | 14.61 | 99315 | | 2025/09/24 | -50 | 21820 | 21830 | 21830 | 14.61 | 99315 | | 变化 | 0 | -60 | -50 | -50 | 0.00 | 0 | | 日期 | 沪锌现货进口盈利 | 沪锌期货进口盈利 | 锌保税库premium | ...

Core Insights - Semir Apparel is experiencing a "revenue growth without profit increase" scenario, with a slight revenue increase but a significant decline in net profit, indicating operational challenges [1][2] - The company's heavy reliance on children's clothing as a primary revenue source poses sustainability risks, especially as the main leisurewear brand faces downward pressure [1][3] Revenue and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, Semir Apparel achieved a revenue of 6.149 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.26%, while net profit fell to 325 million yuan, a decline of 41.17% [1][2] - The increase in sales expenses, driven by efforts to expand direct sales channels and enhance online marketing, has significantly eroded profit margins [2] Inventory Management and Business Structure - The company faces challenges in inventory management, with a slowdown in inventory turnover and increased inventory levels indicating a mismatch between sales speed and procurement [3] - The dependency on the children's clothing segment has risen, contributing approximately 70% of total revenue, while the leisurewear segment's share has decreased [3] - High online return rates, approaching 50%, are impacting user experience and operational efficiency [3] Strategic Responses - Semir Apparel is seeking breakthroughs through channel optimization and refined operations, with plans to increase investment in direct sales channels and enhance online-offline integration [3] - The company aims to strengthen cost control in the second half of the year while balancing short-term performance with long-term strategic investments [3]

2025 年 9 月 24 日 沥青：山东厂库承压，华东出货走稳 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,373 | -0.82% | 3,399 | 0.77% | | | BU2512 | 元/吨 | 3,320 | -0.95% | 3,347 | 0.81% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | BU2511 | 手 | 182,087 | 14,686 | 231,822 | (4,519) | | | BU2512 | 手 | 55,821 | 16,504 | 92,377 | 7,166 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 58120 | -1260 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the global sportswear industry, with a focus on specialized and functional brands showing resilience while general sports brands face sales pressure [3][4][11]. Core Insights - The performance of international sports brands such as Lululemon and Deckers remains strong, while Nike's revenue decline is better than expected. For the latest fiscal quarter, revenues for Deckers, Lululemon, Adidas, Nike, VF, and Puma grew by +17%, +7%, +2%, -12%, -8%, and -8% respectively, with net profits showing a similar trend [3][11]. - The report highlights that Nike's inventory has reached a turning point, with expectations of a narrowing revenue decline in the upcoming fiscal quarter [4][16]. - Domestic sports brands in China, including Anta and Li Ning, have shown resilience with revenue growth of +14% and +3% respectively in the first half of 2025, indicating a recovery in domestic demand [12][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview - Specialized and functional international sports brands demonstrate resilience, while general sports brands face sales challenges. The latest fiscal quarter saw varied performance across brands, with Nike's revenue decline being less severe than anticipated [3][11]. 2. Nike - Nike's revenue for FY25Q4 was $11.1 billion, a 12% year-over-year decline, but better than the company's expectations of a mid-double-digit decline. The net profit dropped by 85.9% to $210 million [19][21]. - The company anticipates a further narrowing of revenue decline in FY26Q1, projecting a mid-single-digit percentage drop [19][21]. 3. Adidas - Adidas maintained its full-year revenue guidance, expecting high single-digit growth for FY25 despite ongoing tariff disruptions [11][19]. 4. Lululemon - Lululemon's revenue growth was +7%, but it fell short of expectations, leading to a downward adjustment in its guidance for FY25 [11][19]. 5. Puma - Puma's revenue declined by 8.3%, with significant downward adjustments to its guidance due to discounting and tariff impacts [11][19]. 6. VF Corporation - VF Corporation's performance exceeded expectations, with an anticipated improvement in revenue decline for the next fiscal quarter [11][19]. 7. Deckers - Deckers reported a revenue increase of 16.9%, driven by strong performance from its UGG and HOKA brands, and provided optimistic revenue guidance for the next quarter [11][19]. 8. Investment Analysis - The report suggests investment opportunities in the sports industry chain, particularly in outdoor brands like Anta Sports and Li Ning, as well as global supply chain manufacturers [4][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - For pure benzene, domestic attention is on the commissioning progress of Yulong Cracking Unit 2. There will be concentrated new capacity additions from August to September. Domestic existing unit operations are still stable, while the rhythm of imports has slowed down. Downstream pick - up has reached its peak and declined but remains at a decent level, leading to a decline in port inventory. Downstream operations of pure benzene are recovering from the bottom, but overall operations are still low, and short - term maintenance of styrene has dragged down the rigid demand for pure benzene [3]. - For styrene, downstream pick - up during the peak season remains at a relatively high level, and port inventory is waiting to be further reduced. Currently, the absolute level of port inventory is still high. There will be short - term maintenance in the first and middle of September, leading to a decline in operations, and port inventory has started to decline. However, operations may recover in the second half of September. Among styrene's downstream products, the operations of ABS and PS have slightly declined, EPS operations are decent, and ABS has a large inventory pressure [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Relevant figures include the pure benzene main contract basis and futures price, pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread, EB main contract trend & basis, EB main contract basis, and styrene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread [9][14][20] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Relevant figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between FOB Korea pure benzene and CFR Japan naphtha, non - integrated styrene production profits, the difference between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and FOB Korea pure benzene, the difference between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, the difference between FOB Rotterdam pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, pure benzene import profits, styrene import profits, the difference between FOB US Gulf styrene and CFR China styrene, and the difference between FOB Rotterdam styrene and CFR China styrene [22][25][33][40] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Relevant figures are pure benzene inventory at East China ports, pure benzene operating rate, styrene inventory at East China ports, styrene operating rate, styrene commercial inventory in East China, and styrene factory inventory [42][44][47] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream Products - Relevant figures involve EPS operating rate and production profit, PS operating rate and production profit, and ABS operating rate and production profit [53][55][58] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream Products - Relevant figures include caprolactam operating rate and production profit, phenol - acetone operating rate and production profit, aniline operating rate and production profit, adipic acid operating rate and production profit, PA6 regular spinning bright production profit, nylon filament production profit, bisphenol A production profit, PC production profit, epoxy resin E - 51 production profit, pure MDI production profit, and polymer MDI production profit [63][65][74][86] Strategies - Unilateral: None [4] - Basis and Inter - Period: Go for a positive spread arbitrage when the EB2510 - EB2511 spread is low [4] - Cross - Product: Temporarily go for widening the EB2510 - BZ2603 spread when it is low [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The trading logic is the transmission of port pressure to the inland. There is seasonal stocking demand and incremental stocking from the new Lianhong device in the inland, but the port will cause continuous reverse flow impact. The current price is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland behavior is crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. It's necessary to wait before bottom - fishing, considering import variables such as India's purchase from Iran and unplanned maintenance [2]. - Polyethylene: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream two - oil and coal - chemical industries are destocking, social inventory is flat, and downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The maintenance in September is flat compared to the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is significant, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [3]. - Polypropylene: The upstream two - oil and mid - stream inventories are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The drawing production scheduling is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on 01 is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [3]. - PVC: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating. The northwest devices have seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability. The recent near - end export orders have slightly declined. The coal sentiment is positive, the semi - coke cost is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance; the FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: The daily changes of动力煤期货,江苏现货,华南现货,鲁南折盘面,西南折盘面,河北折盘面,西北折盘面,CFR中国,CFR东南亚,进口利润,主力基差,盘面MTO利润 are 0, - 8, - 5, 10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 5, 0 respectively [2]. Polyethylene - Price and Inventory Data: From September 11 to September 17, 2025, the price of Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 850 on September 12 - 17. The prices of North China LL, East China LL, East China LD, East China HD, LL美金, and LL美湾 had certain fluctuations. The import profit was - 76 on September 15 - 17. The主力期货 price and基差 also changed. The two - oil inventory was 66 throughout, and the仓单 increased from 11993 on September 11 to 12736 on September 15 - 17. The daily changes on September 17 compared to the previous day were 0, 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 10, 0, 0 [3]. Polypropylene - Price and Inventory Data: From September 11 to September 17, 2025, the prices of山东丙烯,东北亚丙烯,华东PP,华北PP,山东粉料,华东共聚,PP美金,PP美湾,出口利润,主力期货,基差,两油库存,仓单 had different changes. The daily changes on September 17 compared to the previous day were 0, 0, 10, - 8, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 10, 0, 0 [3]. PVC - Price and Profit Data: From September 11 to September 17, 2025, the prices of西北电石,山东烧碱,电石法 - 华东,乙烯法 - 华东,电石法 - 华南,电石法 - 西北,进口美金价 (CFR中国),出口利润,西北综合利润,华北综合利润,基差 (高端交割品) had certain changes. The daily change of西北电石 on September 17 compared to the previous day was 50, and other items had no change [3].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-9-16） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：受安全事故影响，部分地区生产仍受压制。焦炭价格走弱，下游采购积极性一般，市场成 交仍显疲软，线上竞拍流拍比例仍较高，多数成交价格延续下跌，但由于煤矿库存处于中低位水平，主 流煤种报价暂稳；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1130，基差-57.5；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 6、预期：当下铁水产量高位，对双焦的刚需性仍在，但焦炭第二轮提降落地，焦企利润进一步压缩下， 下游对原料煤需求收紧，对高价原料接受度不高，市场偏谨慎，预计短期焦煤价格或弱稳运行。 4、盘 ...

研究员：童川 期货从业证号：F3071222 投资咨询证号：Z0017010 沥青周报 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 10 | 1 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 成本端原油价格涨跌均有阻力，油价短期预计宽幅震荡，原料稀释沥青贴水暂时维持稳定，成本端暂无趋势性指引。9月份 沥青供应端持续增加，终端需求环比回升，逐渐进入旺季。供需双旺的格局下，产业链库存持续下降。其中炼厂库存低位 企稳，社会库存高位回落。当前炼厂利润尚可支撑高供应，而年底前社会库存预计持续主动去库，为市场增加额外供应， 炼厂去库速度放缓，年底前库存压力将逐步增加。沥青估值偏高，中长期裂解价差预期走弱，BU2511合约运行区间 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand situation is complex. The supply is stable, but demand is weak. The cost support is weakening in the flood season, and the market is expected to oscillate in the range of 8605 - 8875 [6][8]. - For polysilicon, the short - term supply schedule is decreasing, while the demand shows a continuous recovery trend. The cost support is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate in the range of 52660 - 54760 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand was 81,000 tons, a 1.21% decrease from the previous week. The demand in the downstream sectors such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is in different states [6]. - **Cost**: The production of sample oxygen - passed 553 in Xinjiang is at a loss of 3322 yuan/ton, and the cost support is weakening in the flood season [6]. - **Other factors**: On September 11, the basis of the 11 - contract was 260 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The social inventory decreased by 0.73%, and the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 1.55%. The main port inventory decreased by 1.68%. The MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing [6][8]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the production was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for September is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [10]. - **Demand**: The production of silicon wafers last week was 13.88GW, a 0.72% increase from the previous week, and the inventory decreased by 1.78%. The production of battery cells and components is increasing, and the overall demand is recovering [10]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,430 yuan/ton [10]. - **Other factors**: On September 11, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 2160 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price. The weekly inventory increased by 3.79% and is at a low level compared to the same period in history. The MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is long, and the long position is decreasing [10]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the 01 - contract increased by 0.94% [17]. - Spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon also showed increases, such as the price of East China non - oxygen - passed 553 silicon increased by 0.56% [17]. - Inventory data of different types, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory, showed a decreasing trend [17]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of different contracts increased. For example, the 01 - contract increased by 1.54% [19]. - Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were relatively stable, with small changes in some indicators [19]. - The export volume of battery cells and components increased, and the inventory of some products decreased [19]. 3.3 Price and Cost Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The price - basis and delivery product spread trends, as well as the cost trends in sample regions, show fluctuations over time [21][38]. - **Polysilicon**: The market price and cost trends show that the price and cost of polysilicon have different change trends in different periods [64]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show that the supply - demand relationship is in a state of change, with different levels of balance or imbalance in different periods [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows that the supply and demand are also in a dynamic state, with different balance results in different months [67]. 3.5 Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - The DMC price, production, and inventory trends show that the production capacity utilization rate is relatively stable, and the inventory has increased [47][53]. - The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, and raw rubber are relatively stable [49]. Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, and production trends of aluminum alloy show that the inventory is at a high level, and the production and import - export situation is complex [56][59]. - The demand in the automotive and wheel - hub sectors is related to the production and sales of automobiles and the export of wheel - hubs [60]. Polysilicon Downstream - **Silicon Wafers**: The price, production, inventory, and demand trends show that the production is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing [70]. - **Battery Cells**: The price, production, and export trends show that the production is increasing, and the export volume is also increasing [73]. - **Photovoltaic Components**: The price, production, inventory, and export trends show that the production and export are increasing, and the inventory is decreasing [76]. - **Photovoltaic Accessories**: The price, production, and import - export trends of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coating, photovoltaic film, and photovoltaic glass show different change trends [79]. - **Component Composition Cost - Profit**: The cost - profit trends of different components in 210mm components show different profit situations [81].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue increased by 8.4% and demand increased by 13.7% in Q2 2025, despite challenges from tariff uncertainty and a weak housing market [4] - On a two-year basis, revenues increased by 12% and demand increased by 21%, indicating significant market share gains [4] - Adjusted operating margin improved to 15.1%, and adjusted EBITDA rose to 20.6%, both up by 340 basis points year-over-year [4] - Net income surged by 79%, with free cash flow generated amounting to $81 million in the quarter [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gallery demand in RH England rose by 76% in Q2, while online demand increased by 34% [5] - The gallery in the English countryside generated $46 million in demand in its second full fiscal year, with expectations for the Mayfair gallery to perform even better [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing strong demand trends in Europe, particularly with the opening of RH Paris, which has exceeded traffic expectations compared to RH New York [13] - The company anticipates significant brand-building opportunities in key European markets, including London and Milan, set to open in 2026 [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its global presence, with plans to open four additional design galleries in 2025 [20] - The strategy includes creating immersive physical experiences that blend residential and retail spaces, enhancing customer engagement [19] - The company is also shifting sourcing out of China, projecting a decrease from 16% in Q1 to 2% in Q4 2025 [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about the potential impact of new tariffs on the furniture industry, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to avoid significant job losses [52] - The company is optimistic about its growth trajectory, projecting revenue growth of 9% to 11% for fiscal 2025, with adjusted operating margins between 13% and 14% [18] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining focus on long-term investments despite current economic challenges [24] Other Important Information - The company plans to delay the launch of a new brand extension to spring 2026 due to tariff uncertainties [17] - The company is also working on reducing excess inventory, with a target of $200 million to $300 million in inventory reduction by year-end [61] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is real estate monetization still something the company would pursue given the improvement in free cash flow? - Management indicated that they are opportunistic regarding real estate and do not see a pressing need to pursue monetization at this time [30][41] Question: How much visibility is there into the planned launch of the new brand extension? - Management expressed confidence in the launch of the new brand extension, barring any unforeseen tariff issues [58] Question: What are the expected revenues per market or gallery in Europe? - Management noted that while it is early to provide specific figures, they are optimistic about the performance of galleries in England and Paris, with expectations for strong brand awareness in London [75]