研究所 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 11 月 19 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面弱势震荡，最终报收 2013（-10/-0.49%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1920 元/吨，北线报价 1960 元/吨。关中地区 报价 1880 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1910 元/吨，山西地区报价 1970 元/吨，河南地区报价 2000 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2070 元/吨，鲁北报价 2160 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2070 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 1980 元/吨，云贵报价 2040 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 1990 元/吨，宁波报价 1970 元/吨，广州报价 1970 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 截至 2025 年 11 月 19 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 147.93 万吨，较上一期数据减 少 6.43 万吨。其中，华东去库 3.86 万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少 2.57 万吨。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，煤制甲醇利润在 320 元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽 松。进口端，美金价格持续下跌，进口维持顺挂，伊朗全部正常， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in luxury brand sales strategies, particularly focusing on how retailers like Hema and Sam's Club are capitalizing on the luxury goods market amidst changing consumer behaviors and economic pressures [5][8]. Group 1: Retail Strategies - Luxury brands are increasingly utilizing e-commerce and outlet stores as significant sales channels due to the impact of the luxury goods downturn and changing consumer purchasing habits [7][8]. - Membership-based retail platforms, such as Hema and Sam's Club, are becoming vital for luxury brands to reduce inventory while maintaining brand prestige [8][14]. - Hema has expanded its offerings to include luxury brands like Burberry and Gucci, primarily through a global purchasing model that emphasizes pre-sale and direct shipping from Europe [10][12]. Group 2: Burberry's Financial Performance - Burberry reported a revenue of £1.032 billion for the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, reflecting a 3% decline year-over-year, with a significant reduction in operating losses from £53 million to £18 million [17][18]. - The brand's comparable store sales showed a 2% increase in the second quarter, marking the end of a seven-quarter decline, driven by improved consumer sentiment in China [21][24]. - Burberry's gross margin improved to 67.9%, up 410 basis points, attributed to better inventory management and cost control measures [32][25]. Group 3: Market Trends and Challenges - The luxury market is witnessing a shift where consumers are prioritizing value, leading to a decline in full-price sales channels while discount channels are performing better [24][29]. - Burberry's strategy includes reducing reliance on discounting and focusing on maintaining a healthier inventory level, with a reported 24% decrease in net inventory [31][30]. - The competitive landscape for retailers like Hema and Sam's Club is evolving, as they benefit from price advantages while facing challenges from unauthorized channels [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated higher, with domestic refined copper imports remaining at a loss. The Fed Chairman has cooled the market's expectations of a December interest - rate cut, indicating growing internal differences within the Fed. The US House of Representatives will vote on a bill to end the government shutdown. Domestically, the central bank emphasizes the balance of multiple relationships in its monetary policy. LME copper inventories are stable, while Comex, SHFE, and BC copper inventories have increased. Downstream demand is restricted by high - price concerns. LME is seeking opinions on new permanent rules. With the boost from precious metals and the cautious optimism of the equity market, copper may be short - term bullish but will likely remain in a high - level oscillation in the off - season. Attention should be paid to overseas financial markets and domestic inventories [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. Alumina prices have declined, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots has narrowed. Alumina plant profits are compressed, with occasional production cuts in loss - making capacities. Alumina inventories are increasing. The internal and external market situations are different. The electrolytic aluminum market is influenced by both long and short factors and will continue to adjust at a high level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the potential for market recovery due to northern heating season production restrictions and the long - AD spread after the spread narrows [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, nickel prices declined slightly. LME and SHFE nickel inventories decreased. The nickel - iron to stainless - steel industry chain shows weakening raw material support and rising stainless - steel inventories. In the new - energy industry chain, the discount coefficient has risen slightly, but the output of ternary precursors in November has decreased. With increasing inventory pressure, nickel prices may oscillate, and inventory changes should be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price increase, import loss, complex macro - situation, inventory changes, demand constraints, policy impact, and short - term and long - term market trends [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight price fluctuations, price and discount changes in the spot market, profit compression and production cuts in alumina plants, inventory pressure, internal - external market differences, and short - term market adjustment [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight price decline, inventory reduction, weakening support in the nickel - iron to stainless - steel chain, mixed situation in the new - energy chain, inventory pressure, and oscillating price trend [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Price changes in the market, inventory changes in multiple locations (LME, Comex, SHFE, etc.), and changes in other indicators such as LME0 - 3 premium and import profit and loss [1][3]. - **Lead**: Price changes in the average price, premium and discount, and other aspects, as well as inventory and import profit - and - loss changes [3]. - **Aluminum**: Price changes in different regions, inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, and changes in premium and discount and import profit and loss [4]. - **Nickel**: Price changes in different nickel products, inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, and changes in premium and discount and import profit and loss [2][4]. - **Zinc**: Price changes in the market, TC stability, inventory changes in LME and SHFE, and changes in premium and discount and import profit and loss [6]. - **Tin**: Price changes in the market, inventory changes in LME and SHFE, and changes in premium and discount and import profit and loss [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium and Discount**: Charts show the spot premium and discount trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][15]. - **SHFE Near - to - Far - Month Spread**: Charts present the near - to - far - month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][21][23]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts display the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts present the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series products from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and professional titles in the field of non - ferrous metals research, and are responsible for different research directions such as precious metals, aluminum - silicon, and lithium - nickel [50][51].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 23.127 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.84% - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.762 billion yuan, down 7.17% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 10.742 billion yuan, also down 7.11% year-on-year - In Q3 2025, the total revenue was 6.674 billion yuan, a decline of 9.80% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.099 billion yuan, down 13.07% year-on-year, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 3.092 billion yuan, down 13.41% year-on-year [2][4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 87.17%, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points year-on-year - The net profit margin attributable to the parent company decreased by 1.75 percentage points to 46.44% - The operating expense ratio increased by 1.51 percentage points to 16.13%, with sales expense ratio increasing by 1.74 percentage points and management expense ratio increasing by 0.26 percentage points [6][9]. Future Outlook - The company is actively reducing inventory and is expected to operate with a lighter load in the future - The company is gradually assisting distributors in inventory clearance, and long-term, the national expansion of high-end products is progressing steadily, with increasing competitiveness of mid-tier products - The company is expected to achieve stable development, with projected EPS for 2025 and 2026 at 8.14 yuan and 8.43 yuan, respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 16 and 15 times [6][9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor. Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, and November is likely to see high imports. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. The issue of port sanctions is expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland region. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it does not affect profits [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. The upstream (Sinopec and PetroChina) and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differentials are fluctuating, with LD weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotations. New device pressure is high in 2025, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [6]. - **PP**: The upstream (Sinopec and PetroChina) and mid - stream of polypropylene are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differentials are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderately excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - **PVC**: The basis of the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the contradiction of static inventory is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 6th to 12th, the price of thermal coal futures remained at 801. The prices of Jiangsu and South China spot, and other regional converted prices had certain fluctuations. For example, the Jiangsu spot price increased from 2088 on November 6th to 2082 on November 12th. The import profit and other indicators also changed slightly [1]. - **View**: The current situation is poor, with high imports expected in November. Inventory reduction is difficult, and the upside of methanol is limited. The downside depends on the inland region, and coal price strengthening does not affect profits [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From November 6th to 12th, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 740. The prices of North China LL, East China LL, etc. had certain changes. For example, the East China LL price increased from 6975 on November 6th to 7000 on November 12th. The two - oil inventory decreased from 69 on November 6th to 67 on November 7th and then continued to change [6]. - **View**: The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis varies in different regions. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase. Non - standard HD injection molding price is stable, and LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to various factors such as new device commissioning [6]. PP - **Price Data**: From November 6th to 12th, the price of Shandong propylene and Northeast Asian propylene had certain fluctuations. The prices of East China PP, North China PP, etc. also changed. For example, the East China PP price increased from 6320 on November 6th to 6365 on November 12th. The two - oil inventory and other indicators also had corresponding changes [6]. - **View**: The upstream and mid - stream are reducing inventory. The basis, non - standard price differentials, and import profit are in a certain state. Exports are good. Future supply is expected to increase slightly, and attention should be paid to factors such as new device commissioning and PDH device overhauls [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From November 6th to 12th, the price of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2400. The prices of calcium carbide - based PVC in different regions and other indicators had certain changes. For example, the calcium carbide - based PVC price in Northwest decreased from 4320 on November 6th to 4250 on November 11th [6]. - **View**: The basis is at a certain level. Downstream operating rates are weakening, and mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating. Attention should be paid to factors such as new device commissioning, exports, and cost changes [6].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Daily Report, November 12, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [5] - Contact: zhangmengchao_qh@chinastock.com.cn [5] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: The futures market rebounded with fluctuations, closing at 2108 (+14/+0.67%) [2] - Spot Market: Various regions had different spot prices, with production areas like Inner Mongolia南线 at 1960 yuan/ton, and consumption areas like Lunan at 2120 yuan/ton [2] Group 3: Important Information - Port Inventory: As of November 12, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 154.36 million tons, an increase of 5.65 million tons from the previous period. East China saw an inventory increase of 6.49 million tons, while South China had a decrease of 0.84 million tons [3] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Supply: Coal - to - methanol profit was around 320 yuan/ton, with high and stable domestic production capacity utilization and continuous ample domestic supply [4] - Import: The US dollar price dropped rapidly, the import forwardation widened. Iranian production was fully normal, non - Iranian production capacity utilization increased slightly, and the foreign market's production capacity utilization returned to a high level [4] - Demand: The MTO device production capacity utilization increased, with some MTO devices operating stably and some at partial loads [4] - Inventory: Import arrivals decreased slightly, the port inventory accumulation cycle ended, and the basis was strong; inland enterprise inventory fluctuated slightly [4] - Overall Situation: With increased international production capacity utilization, resumed imports, and ample port spot liquidity, methanol continued its downward trend, especially considering the high - inventory background [4] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Hold short positions [5] - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [6] - Options: Sell call options [6]

Core Insights - ASUS has established inventory to address the current price increases in DRAM and NAND flash memory, indicating proactive measures to mitigate supply chain challenges [1] - The company plans to adjust its product mix and dynamically modify sales prices in response to market conditions [1] - The ongoing price surge in storage is attributed to supply-demand imbalances, particularly due to increased demand from AI server applications and stagnant production capacity from major DRAM manufacturers [1] Company Performance - In Q3 2023, ASUS reported revenue of NT$189.907 billion (approximately RMB 43.641 billion), reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21% [1] - The revenue breakdown shows that consumer, gaming, and enterprise segments contributed 29%, 41%, and 30% respectively, with enterprise revenue doubling year-on-year [1] Inventory Management - ASUS has built approximately two months of inventory for both components and finished products, which has limited the impact of supply chain disruptions on Q4 operations [1] - The company intends to strengthen collaboration with upstream suppliers to further enhance inventory reserves [1]

胡书宾表示，华硕上半年就留意到DRAM供应紧张，价格可能上涨的趋势，很早就开始拉长备货周期， 到今年第3季底，华硕在零组件端库存水位约二个月，通路端成品库存也有约二个月，总计有四个月安 全库存应对，存储器缺货影响对华硕第4季营运影响有限。 针对存储器缺货大涨价议题，华硕（2357）共同执行长胡书宾昨（11）日表示，华硕很早就开始拉长存 储器相关元件备货周期，目前总计有四个月安全库存，对本季影响有限，后续将依据成本变化、通路伙 伴，以及消费者需求状况考量，"会在适度状况下，调整产品价格。" ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - In FY2025Q3 (July 1, 2025 - September 30, 2025), the company achieved revenue of €6.63 billion, representing an 8% year-over-year increase at constant exchange rates. The revenue performance was in line with expectations, with the Adidas brand revenue increasing by 12% [2][4]. - The gross profit margin improved by 0.5 percentage points to 51.8%, driven by lower product and transportation costs, improved business mix, and strong sales [2][4]. - Operating profit margin increased by 1.8 percentage points to 11.1%, while the net profit margin rose by 0.1 percentage points to 7.0% [2][4]. Revenue Breakdown - By region, the Adidas brand saw revenue growth across all markets: Europe (+9%), North America (+1%), Emerging Markets (+11%), Japan/Korea (+6%), and Greater China (+6%). The Adidas brand revenue in these regions grew by 12%, 8%, 13%, 11%, and 10% respectively [5]. - By channel, all channels for the Adidas brand experienced double-digit growth: wholesale (+10%), DTC (+14%), self-operated stores (+13%), and e-commerce (+15%) [5]. - By product category, both footwear and apparel for the Adidas brand achieved double-digit growth, with footwear up by 11% and apparel by 16%. Accessories saw a modest increase of 1% [5]. Inventory and Guidance - As of FY2025Q3, the company's inventory increased by 21% year-over-year to $5.47 billion, attributed to a low base last year and pre-purchases for the World Cup, which is expected to support revenue growth [11]. - The company raised its full-year guidance, projecting a 9% year-over-year revenue increase for FY2025 at constant exchange rates, with the Adidas brand expected to achieve double-digit growth. Operating profit is forecasted to be €2 billion, up from a previous estimate of €1.7 to €1.8 billion [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current iron ore supply and demand are weak. With the terminal demand in the off - season, steel mills' procurement is cautious. In the short term, it will maintain a volatile operation. The strategy is range - bound trading [5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Logic - **Supply**: From November 3rd to November 9th, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3069 tons, a decrease of 144.5 tons compared to the previous period. Australian shipments were 1810.8 tons, down 84.3 tons, and Brazilian shipments were 737.8 tons, down 126.3 tons. The arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2741.2 tons, a decrease of 477.2 tons. As of November 7th, the daily output of iron concentrate from 186 domestic mines was 46.87 tons, a decrease of 0.77 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 59.98%, down 0.98%. The mine concentrate inventory was 79.6 tons, a decrease of 9.95 tons [5] - **Demand**: In the week of November 7th, the daily average pig iron output was 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons. After the emergency response to heavy pollution weather was lifted in many places in Hebei, the steel mills' willingness to actively overhaul was weak, and the short - term decline in pig iron output was limited [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory of imported ore continued to increase, the number of ships at the port decreased by 9 to 109. The pressure at the port was transferred to the port, and the steel mills' inventory rebounded from a low level, with the overall inventory increasing slightly [5] - **Basis**: The basis of the 01 and 05 contracts fluctuated slightly [5] - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills declined, and the price of imported ore oscillated in the range of 100 - 105 US dollars per ton [5] Price - The spot price oscillated and declined [7] Mineral Powder Spread - The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder rebounded slightly, and the spread between PB powder and Macfarlane powder oscillated at a low level [13][17] Relative Valuation - The ratio of steel to ore oscillated at a low level, and the ratio of ore to coke declined slightly [28] Supply - Global shipments decreased slightly, and the shipments of non - mainstream mines fluctuated slightly. Australian ore shipped to China and Brazilian ore shipments both decreased slightly. Shipments from FMG decreased, while those from BHP increased slightly. Shipmentsments from The Shipments from RT and VALE increased slightly. The shipping freight index increased slightly, the arrival volume decreased slightly, and the output of domestic iron concentrate decreased slightly [34][38][43][47][52][56][59] Demand - The profit of steel mill blast furnaces increased slightly, the profitability rate of steel mills continued to decline, and the pig iron output continued to decrease [65][71] Inventory - The port throughput changed little, and the port inventory continued to rise. The inventory of Australian ore increased slightly, and the inventory of Brazilian ore was at a high level. The inventory of coarse powder oscillated at a high level, and the inventory of lump ore increased slightly. The steel mills' consumption continued to decline, and the inventory of imported ore oscillated at a low level [78][82][90][98]