央视网消息：近日，国家发展改革委、财政部联合印发《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，对2026年"两新"工作作出系 统部署。与2025年相比，优化方案呈现出"精准发力，提质增效"的特征。 2026版"两新"优化方案出台 消费品以旧换新"得补率"将更高 2026版"两新"优化方案出台 设备更新领域支持范畴更广 在设备更新领域，《通知》在保持总体延续的基础上，进一步将民生关切、公共安全及线下消费领域关键设备纳入支持范畴。包括老旧小区加装电梯， 养老机构设备更新；消防救援设施、检验检测设备更新，支持商业综合体、购物中心、大型超市等线下消费商业设施设备更新。《通知》加大对中小企业设 备更新的支持力度，大幅降低申报相关领域设备更新项目的投资额门槛，实现政策红利"应享尽享"。 2026年，优化后的"两新"政策将更加注重提质增效， 扩内需，稳增长，促转型，惠民生。 在消费品以旧换新领域，《通知》明确，2026年汽车以旧换新将此前定额补贴优化调整为按车价比例补贴，报废更新补贴最高2万元，置换更新补贴最 高1.5万元。2026年家电以旧换新支持冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器等六大类产品，通过 ...

2025年前三季度我国经济同比增长5.2%，尽管四季度经济面临下行压力，但是全年有望实现5%左右的增长目标。 刘元春。资料图 2026年增长目标建议定在5%左右 《21世纪》：2025年前三季度经济增长5.2%，预计四季度经济增速如何？如何看待2025年经济表现？ 具体来看，尽管面临国际经贸斗争，2025年1~11月份我国货物出口同比增长6.2%，实现较高增长，出口表现韧性十足。1~11月份社会消费品 零售总额同比增长4%，服务零售额同比增长5.4%，消费仍在持续恢复，尤其是升级类服务消费增长较快。1~11月份，固定资产投资同比下降 2.6%，高技术产业投资维持较高增长。 中央经济工作会议指出，2026年要更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，持续扩大内需、优化供给，因地制 宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的 有效提升和量的合理增长。 如何看待2025年经济表现？2026年应追求怎样的经济增速？如何展望2026年经济形势？如何更好地提振消费？如何继续实施更加积极有为的宏 观政策？要重点推进哪些结 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the coordinated approach of fiscal and monetary policies in 2025 to stabilize growth, expand domestic demand, and promote innovation amidst complex domestic and international conditions [1][2][3] - Fiscal policy has shifted from "active" to "more active," with a fiscal deficit rate reaching approximately 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, and the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds and 4.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds [2] - Monetary policy has transitioned to a "moderately loose" orientation for the first time in over a decade, with measures including a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reduction, resulting in a cumulative social financing scale increase of 33.39 trillion yuan in the first eleven months, which is 3.99 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2][3] Group 2 - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies has been particularly evident in the bond market, with a significant increase in net financing of various government bonds and a net liquidity injection of 4.9 trillion yuan by the central bank, which is 4.2 trillion yuan more than last year [3] - The combination of fiscal and monetary policies aims to achieve common goals such as stabilizing growth, expectations, and employment, particularly in key areas like supporting technological innovation and stabilizing the real estate market [3][4] - Policies to expand domestic demand have been prioritized, with a series of measures introduced throughout the year to enhance consumer capacity and improve the consumption environment, transitioning from short-term demand stimulation to long-term mechanism construction [4][5] Group 3 - The "subsidy + credit" and "credit + interest subsidy" combinations have effectively amplified policy effects, with 300 billion yuan allocated for subsidies to support the replacement of consumer goods, alongside financial policies encouraging personal consumption loans [5][6] - Data shows significant retail growth in consumer goods categories, with retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural office supplies, and communication equipment increasing by 14.8%, 18.2%, and 20.9% year-on-year, respectively, from January to November [6] - The integration of industrial and financial policies has facilitated technological innovation and industrial upgrading, with a focus on strategic emerging industries and the establishment of a diversified financial service system to support technology-driven enterprises [7][8]

21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭北京报道2025年前三季度我国经济同比增长5.2%，尽管四季度经济面临下 行压力，但是全年有望实现5%左右的增长目标。 具体来看，尽管面临国际经贸斗争，2025年1-11月份我国货物出口同比增长6.2%，实现较高增长，出口 表现韧性十足。1-11月份社会消费品零售总额同比增长4%，服务零售额同比增长5.4%，消费仍在持续 恢复，尤其是升级类服务消费增长较快。1-11月份，固定资产投资同比下降2.6%，高技术产业投资维持 较高增长。 中央经济工作会议指出，2026年要更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策，持续扩大内需、优化供给，因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持续防范化 解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增 长。 《21世纪》：2025年前三季度经济增长5.2%，预计四季度经济增速如何？如何看待2025年经济表现？ 刘元春：按照大家的核算，从需求端来看，四季度经济增速预计在4.5%左右；供给端表现会好一些， 像四季度工业增加值增速预计在4.8%左右，因此最终核算下来，四季度GDP增速预计 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 12 月 30 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-30） | | | | 铁矿：铁矿自身高供给、弱需求、高库存格局不变。当下 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 铁水有所企稳、但板材库存高压，钢厂检修预期升温，现 | | | | 震荡 | 实需求疲弱。近期政策面有三项较为重要的变化，一是出 | | | 铁矿石 | | 口许可管理，二是发改委强调明年开始有效管控双高项 | | | | | 目，三是高层扩内需的强调，短期产生利多情绪。同时较 | | | | | 为明显的低库存+钢厂节前补库预期逻辑，铁矿石期货暂 | | | | | 时忽略了需求淡季和库存高位的现实压力，延续技术性反 | | | | | 弹。长期做空机会的入场节点，需要等补库兑现之后再行 | | | | | 考虑。 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 煤焦：焦炭第四轮提降预计月底提，预计 1 月初落地。年 | | | | | 底产能倒査、安监巡视作为现实催化，叠加反内卷政策的 | | | | | 预期，煤焦仍有支撑 ...

中新网西安12月29日电 (记者 阿琳娜)记者29日从西安市政府新闻办举办的新闻发布会获悉，为抢抓"双 节"消费机遇，西安市商务局紧扣"扩内需、促消费、惠民生"核心目标，积极谋划2026年提振消费政 策，联动全市各区县、开发区商务部门及商贸企业，推出一系列力度大、年味浓、覆盖面广的促消费活 动，全力营造"安全、放心、优质、红火"的假日消费氛围。 据了解，为确保"双节"促消费活动有序开展，西安市商务局坚持服务与监管并重，从提升服务效能、安 全防范等方面入手，全方位优化消费环境，让市民和游客消费更放心、体验更舒心。(完) 图为新闻发布会现场。郝钟毓 摄 "双节"期间，西安市商务局统筹全市重点商贸企业，打造"线上线下联动、市区协同、多业态融合"的年 货消费盛宴。重点举办"第二十一届西安年货会""前方有好物长安乐嗨购""全国网上年货节"等系列促消 费活动，组织千余家商户集中展销糖酒食品、农副产品、年庆文化等万余种商品，同步开展"满减满 赠""抽奖秒杀"等优惠活动；在核心商圈布局"年货专区"，通过现场技艺展演、手作文创展销、特色美 食品鉴相结合的方式，让市民在采购年货的同时，全方位感受浓厚的春节消费氛围。 同时，西安市 ...

央视网消息（新闻联播）：记者从财政部了解到，2026年，我国将连续第二年实施更加积极的财政政策，着力扩内需、优结构、增动能、惠民生。将扩大财 政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度，优化政府债券工具组合，提高转移支付资金效能，持续优化支出结构，加强财政金融协同，放大政策效能。 2026年，更加积极的财政政策将坚持内需主导，支持建设强大国内市场，大力提振消费，深入实施提振消费专项行动，继续安排资金支持消费品以旧换新， 调整优化补贴范围和标准。积极扩大有效投资，加大对新质生产力、人的全面发展等重点领域投入。同时，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。 此外，2026年，更加积极的财政政策还将支持科技创新和产业创新深度融合，推进城乡融合和区域联动，进一步加强民生保障，推动经济社会发展全面绿色 转型等，增强经济发展后劲和百姓获得感。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market in 2026 is expected to revolve around "demand structure change", "supply regulation", and "cost support". The market will show a weak and volatile trend with limited upside and downside space, restricted by demand increment on the upside and supported by cost and supply regulation on the downside [1][2]. - Policy will significantly influence the end - use flow of steel. Coil demand may maintain a certain growth rate, infrastructure will provide a cushion, while the real - estate construction sector will remain weak [1]. - Supply regulation aims to guide steel towards high - value - added products, and steel mills face the challenge of reducing production while maintaining profits in the over - capacity stage. Supply is expected to slightly decline [2]. - Cost support depends on the "anti - involution" trend in the coal industry and the price support of iron ore. Iron ore prices may decline in 2026 [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Three Keywords - **Weak demand for finished products**: In 2025, real - estate construction demand was weak, and infrastructure's demand - increasing effect on building materials was limited. Although manufacturing and exports provided some support, they couldn't make up for the real - estate demand gap, restricting the upside of steel, iron ore, and coking coal prices [7]. - **Anti - involution policy**: It dominated the second - half trend of the black - sector market, especially in the coal sector. Policy changes led to significant price fluctuations in coking coal and coke [8]. - **Tariff trade war**: Sino - US trade frictions mainly affected the indirect export of coils, intensifying market fluctuations in the black sector [8]. 1.2 Policy Review - Steel - related policies in 2025 focused on "promoting upgrading + stabilizing growth + anti - involution", while coal - related policies emphasized "anti - involution + safety + supply guarantee + clean and efficient utilization". In 2026, steel policies will continue to promote high - end development and "anti - involution" implementation needs attention [11][12]. 1.3 Market Recap - **January - February**: Before and after the Spring Festival, demand was weak. Steel winter - storage willingness was low. After the festival, construction resumption was delayed, and steel prices were under pressure. Coal prices were lowered, while iron ore prices were firm due to shipping disruptions [14]. - **March - May**: The domestic demand peak season was below expectations, and export trade frictions intensified. Steel prices dropped, and coal prices declined significantly, while iron ore prices were relatively stable [15]. - **June - July**: Coal supply tightened, and the "anti - involution" policy pushed the black - sector market to rebound. Steel prices increased under cost support [16]. - **August - October**: The "anti - involution" policy expectations fluctuated, and the "Golden September and Silver October" expectations were disappointed. Steel continued to accumulate inventory, and steel mill profits were compressed [17]. - **November - December**: Coal prices fluctuated due to supply - side disturbances. Steel supply, demand, and inventory were all weak, with limited fundamental contradictions [18]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Steel Terminal Demand - **Real estate**: In 2025, real - estate investment, sales, and other data continued to decline. Policies aimed at stabilizing the market, but property sales and investment are expected to decline in 2026, reducing steel demand in real - estate construction [20][28]. - **Infrastructure**: By October 2025, infrastructure investment turned negative year - on - year due to local fiscal constraints and the use of special bonds for debt repayment. In 2026, infrastructure investment is expected to have limited growth [29][39]. - **Manufacturing and indirect export**: Manufacturing's demand for steel increased, driven by the "Two New" policies. However, due to consumption front - loading, the growth rate of steel demand in manufacturing may slow down in 2026 [40][49]. - **Direct export**: As of November 2025, steel exports increased, mainly through "price - for - volume" strategy. In 2026, exports are expected to increase slightly, and exports will develop towards high - value - added and compliant products [54][58]. - **Steel demand forecast**: In 2026, the total demand for crude steel is expected to be 9.84 billion tons, a slight decrease from 2025. Different scenarios (optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic) have different demand forecasts [59][60]. 2.2 Steel Supply - In 2025, steel supply was in a situation of high capacity and weak demand. Crude steel and pig iron production decreased, while steel production increased. Supply is expected to be adjusted according to policy and profit changes in 2026 [62]. 2.3 Steel Inventory - In 2025, the inventory pressure of rebar was relatively low, with high - level inventory in winter - storage and then continuous de - stocking. The hot - rolled coil inventory increased in the second half of the year and had relatively high pressure [69][72]. 2.4 Steel Supply - Demand Summary - Supply is mainly affected by policy regulation and steel mill profits. In 2026, crude steel supply is expected to tighten, and different supply - demand scenarios are predicted [73]. 3. Outlook for 2026 3.1 Market Outlook - The steel market in 2026 will be influenced by demand structure change, supply regulation, and cost support. It is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [74][75]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendations - **Single - side trading**: Focus on short - selling at high points in the range [3]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider spread trading at the upper and lower limits of the rebar - hot - rolled coil spread, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on rebar/hot - rolled coil and short on iron ore [3]. - **Options**: Sell call options at the upper limit of the price range [3].

报告导读： 扩内需逐步被提升至战略地位，消费板块有望触底反弹。白酒板块加速探底， 迈向供需平衡。大众品板块乳制品国产替代有望提速。 投资建议：成长为主线、重视供需出清下的拐点机会。 1）首选具有价格弹性标的，以及有望陆续出清标的；2）饮料结构性高增，重视低估值高股息；3）零 食及食品原料成长标的；4）啤酒；5）调味品平稳、牧业产能去化，餐供有望恢复。 白酒：加速探底，迈向供需平衡。 25Q3以来白酒行业加速探底，报表出清有助于降低渠道库存压力，展望2026年，龙头茅、五批价下行有望激发动销，从而 实现量价平衡。近期宏观及政策层面对消费板块预期形成积极催化，白酒作为顺周期资产，此前已进入加速调整阶段，板块估值分位偏低、股息率具备一定吸 引力，且对宏观环境变化较为敏感，我们认为在政策预期的引导下，股价有望先于基本面见底。 大众品：乳制品国产替代有望提速。 近期商务部对欧盟乳制品实施临时反补贴措施，涉及品类主要为乳酪和稀奶油，有望加速相关产品的国产替代过程，同 时有望增加耗奶量，加速行业周期反转。 风险提示： 宏观经济波动加大、行业竞争加剧、食品安全风险。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 28 年 月 日 交通运输 国际航线旅客周转亮眼，海外电商双十二 GMV 激增 周观点：2025 年 10 月、11 月，国际航线旅客周转量同比 2019 年同期分别 增长 12.9%、14.3%，增速加快。航班管家数据显示，截至 12 月 22 日，2026 年元旦假期经济舱平均票价（不含税）597 元，同比 2024 年下降 1.1%、同 比 2025 年增长 6.7%。继续看好"扩内需"及"反内卷"下航空板块中长期 景气度。TikTok Shop 东南亚"12.12"大促 GMV 同比飙升 2.7 倍。海外电商 GMV 的爆发式增长带动快递业务量迅猛增长，相关标的为极兔速递。 行情回顾：本周交通运输板块行业指数上涨 1.37%，跑输上证指数 0.51 个百 分点（上证指数上涨 1.88%）。从申万交通运输行业三级分类看，涨幅前三名 的板块分别为航运、公交、物流，涨幅分别为 4.70%、4.65%、1.96%；仅航 空运输、铁路运输板块下跌，跌幅分别为-0.75%、-0.73%。 出行：2025 年 1-11 月，民航旅客周转量 12, ...