1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish view on hot-rolled coils [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the supply of hot-rolled coils is contracting while demand is resilient, resulting in an overall tight balance between supply and demand. Pre-holiday winter stocking is an important support for current demand. The social inventory of total inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the pressure on mill inventory is controllable, with the overall inventory risk improving marginally but still relatively high year-on-year. Attention should be paid to the impact of the post-holiday resumption of work and production on supply and demand. In summary, the tight balance between supply and demand and inventory reduction support prices, and subsequent attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of post-holiday demand recovery. Currently, the market sentiment is cautious with low volatility due to the tug-of-war between macro loose expectations and pre-holiday weak demand [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Price**: On Wednesday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 9,222 lots, with a trading volume of 283,776 lots, which was lower than the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,275 yuan, and the high was 3,290 yuan. It showed a weak intraday oscillation, breaking below the 5-day moving average in the short term and closing at 3,280 yuan/ton near the 30-day moving average, a decrease of 13 yuan or 0.39% [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a major region, was reported at 3,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was 0 yuan, basically at par [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22nd, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons month-on-month to 3.0541 million tons, and decreased by 172,300 tons year-on-year. The output decline may be affected by factors such as maintenance arrangements and profit fluctuations, which supports prices [3] - **Demand**: As of January 22nd, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons month-on-month to 3.0996 million tons, and increased by 73,900 tons year-on-year. Although demand declined slightly month-on-month, it maintained year-on-year growth. Pre-holiday stocking supported demand, indicating strong overall demand resilience [3] - **Inventory**: As of January 22nd, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons week-on-week to 3.5778 million tons (social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons week-on-week, and mill inventory increased by 1,100 tons). Year-on-year, the total inventory increased by 212,700 tons (social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year-on-year, and mill inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year-on-year). The month-on-month decrease in total inventory alleviated inventory pressure marginally, while the year-on-year increase indicated that the inventory accumulation rate this year was slightly faster than last year, but the overall risk was controllable [3] - **Policy**: The new regulations on the management of steel export licenses will cause short-term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put downward pressure on prices. In the long term, they will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a positive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in the macro aspect, and listed in - depth rectification of involution - type competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts are also being made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply output, expectation of winter storage demand start, export rush, policy support ("15th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [5] - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hot-rolled coil industry is "Bullish in the short - term" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the supply of hot - rolled coils is contracting while the demand is resilient, with an overall tight balance between supply and demand. Pre - holiday winter stockpiling is an important support for current demand. The social inventory is decreasing on a week - on - week basis, and the factory inventory pressure is controllable, with the overall inventory risk marginally improving. However, the inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. The market needs to focus on the impact of the post - holiday resumption of work and production on supply and demand. The balance between supply and demand and inventory reduction support prices, and subsequent attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of post - holiday demand recovery. Currently, the macro - economic easing expectations and the pre - holiday weak demand are in a tug - of - war, with cautious market sentiment and low volatility. The technical support level is around last week's low, and a bullish view is maintained [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Price**: On Wednesday, the open interest of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract increased by 9,222 lots, with a trading volume of 283,776 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,275 yuan, the high was 3,290 yuan, showing a weak intraday oscillation. In terms of the daily moving average, it briefly fell below the 5 - day moving average and was near the 30 - day moving average, closing at 3,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan or 0.39% [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot - rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between the spot and futures prices was 0 yuan, showing a near - flat price relationship [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons compared to the previous week to 3.0541 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 172,300 tons. The output decline reflects that steel mills' capacity release has converged, possibly affected by maintenance schedules and profit fluctuations, which supports prices [4] - **Demand**: As of January 22, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons compared to the previous week to 3.0996 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 73,900 tons. Although the demand has slightly declined on a week - on - week basis, it has maintained growth on a year - on - year basis. Pre - holiday stockpiling supports demand, and the overall demand is resilient [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons compared to the previous week to 3.5778 million tons (the social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons week - on - week, and the steel mill inventory increased by 1,100 tons), a year - on - year increase of 212,700 tons (the social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year - on - year, and the factory inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year - on - year). The total inventory has decreased on a week - on - week basis, and the inventory pressure has been marginally relieved. The year - on - year increase indicates that the inventory accumulation speed this year is slightly faster than last year, but the overall risk is controllable [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short - term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in - depth rectification of involution - style competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply - side output, expectation of the start of winter stockpiling demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore prices [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Steel mills' resumption of production in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen has shown signs of recovery at the beginning of 2026, breaking the seasonal lull with increasing transaction volumes and stabilizing prices for quality properties, driven by favorable policies and gradually restored market confidence [1][2][31]. Group 1: Market Performance - The transaction volume of second-hand homes in major cities has been rising, with Beijing averaging over 500 transactions per day [1][4]. - Shanghai has seen a continuous decline in inventory for nine months, with a 20% reduction in stock compared to the previous year [22]. - Shenzhen's market is characterized by a structural recovery, where quality properties are appreciating while ordinary properties remain stable [26][30]. Group 2: Policy Impact - Beijing's recovery is largely attributed to new policies implemented in December 2025, which lowered the barriers to home buying [12][14]. - Ongoing favorable policies, such as tax rebates for housing purchases and reduced down payment requirements, are further stimulating demand [33]. - The overall economic improvement and better employment outlook are providing a solid foundation for the release of pent-up housing demand [35]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recovery in the real estate market is not uniform; different cities exhibit varying recovery paces and characteristics [10][18]. - In Beijing, quality properties are in high demand, with a significant reduction in available listings [16]. - In Shanghai, both buyers and sellers are regaining confidence, leading to a more balanced supply-demand dynamic [24]. Group 4: Buyer Considerations - The current market conditions are suitable for genuine buyers with stable financial situations, while speculative buyers and those with insufficient economic strength should refrain from impulsive purchases [41][43]. - The market is expected to maintain a steady recovery without drastic price increases, making it crucial for buyers to assess their financial readiness before entering the market [43][44].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hot - rolled coil industry is "Oscillating with an upward bias" [1] Group 2: Core View - Currently, the supply of hot - rolled coils is contracting, while the demand is resilient. The overall supply - demand is in a tight balance. Pre - holiday winter stockpiling supports the current demand, the social inventory is decreasing month - on - month, and the factory inventory pressure is controllable. The overall inventory risk is gradually improving, but it is still relatively high year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the impact of the post - holiday resumption of work and production on supply and demand. The supply - demand tight balance and inventory reduction support the price. In the future, attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of post - holiday demand recovery. Technically, it has stood firm on the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages, and it is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term, maintaining a bullish view [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures price**: The hot - rolled coil futures main contract increased its open interest by 33,977 lots on Friday, with a trading volume of 304,877 lots. Compared with the previous trading day, the volume increased. The intraday low was 3,283 yuan, and the high was 3,310 yuan. It oscillated with an upward bias during the day. From the perspective of the daily moving average, it stood above the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages. If it stands firm, the probability of continued strength in the short and medium - term is relatively high. It closed at 3,305 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan, or 0.52% [1] - **Spot price**: The price of hot - rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan compared with the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot is - 15 yuan, and the futures are slightly at a premium to the spot [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons month - on - month to 3.0541 million tons, and decreased by 172,300 tons year - on - year. The output decline reflects that the steel mill's production capacity release has converged, which may be affected by factors such as maintenance arrangements and profit fluctuations, and supports the price [3] - **Demand**: As of January 22, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons month - on - month to 3.0996 million tons, and increased by 73,900 tons year - on - year. The demand decreased slightly month - on - month but maintained growth year - on - year. Pre - holiday stockpiling supported the demand, and the overall demand was resilient [3] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons month - on - month to 3.5778 million tons (the social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons month - on - month, and the steel mill inventory increased by 1,100 tons). It increased by 212,700 tons year - on - year (the social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year - on - year, and the factory inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year - on - year). The total inventory decreased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The year - on - year increase reflects that the inventory accumulation speed this year is slightly faster than last year, and the overall risk is controllable [3] - **Policy**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short - term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a positive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in - depth rectification of involution - style competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4] Market Driving Factors Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Decrease in supply - side output, expectation of the start of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as furnace material [5] - **Bearish factors**: The resumption of production of steel mills in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [5]

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is expected to experience significant changes by 2026, with a focus on differentiation in property values based on city and property quality [3][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - The overall real estate market is likely to continue "bottoming out" in 2025, with potential for slight recovery in 2026, particularly in first-tier and strong second-tier cities [3][8]. - Property prices are expected to diverge, with "good cities + good properties" being more resilient to price declines, while weaker cities and assets will face greater challenges [7][10]. Group 2: Sales Dynamics - There is a shift towards the sale of completed properties, as trust in pre-sale properties has diminished due to issues like project delays and quality concerns [14][18]. - The government is emphasizing the importance of "good properties" in its policies, which will lead to increased competition based on quality, community amenities, and service standards [10][18]. Group 3: Policy and Financial Environment - The policy direction aims to stabilize the real estate market rather than incite another price surge, with measures including easing purchase restrictions and maintaining a loose monetary environment [22][28]. - Financial support is expected to continue, with low mortgage rates and down payment ratios, but the focus will be on stabilizing prices rather than driving them up [24][30]. Group 4: Recommendations for Buyers - Buyers are advised to focus on first-tier and strong second-tier cities, avoiding impulsive purchases in weaker markets [12][33]. - When considering properties, buyers should prioritize completed homes or newer second-hand properties, and assess the reputation and financial stability of developers [20][37]. - Financial prudence is emphasized, with recommendations to keep monthly mortgage payments within a manageable percentage of household income [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the bottom. The weekly环比 apparent consumption has rebounded, and the year-on-year is still strong. The demand in the off-season has strong resilience. The warming of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. The total inventory is relatively high, which exerts some pressure, but it has been continuously de-stocked recently. If this trend continues, the pressure will be alleviated. The hot-rolled coil futures have briefly fallen below the 5-day moving average. Attention should be paid to the support near the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. It is recommended to take a cautiously bullish approach and consider buying on dips. However, it should be noted that the oscillation range has not been completely broken yet [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **期货价格**: On Thursday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract decreased by 530 lots, and the trading volume was 326,133 lots, showing a slight increase compared with the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,295 yuan, and the high was 3,314 yuan. It oscillated and consolidated during the day. From the daily moving average, it briefly retraced to find support near the 10-day moving average and then rebounded. It was operating strongly above the medium-term 20-day moving average, closing at 3,307 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - **现货价格**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [2]. - **基差**: The basis between futures and spot was -17 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 28,500 tons to 3.0836 million tons compared with the previous week. The year-on-year output decreased by 118,300 tons. The output has been rising for four consecutive weeks, mainly due to the improvement in steel mill profitability, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of some steel mill hot metal from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production by steel mills after annual maintenance, which promoted the increase in supply. The subsequent increase in supply needs to be observed [4]. - **Demand**: As of January 15, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 58,200 tons to 3.1416 million tons compared with the previous week. The apparent consumption rebounded significantly this week, with a year-on-year increase of 5,100 tons. The demand data is at a high level in recent years, indicating that demand still has resilience [4]. - **Inventory**: As of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 58,000 tons to 3.6233 million tons compared with the previous week (the social inventory decreased by 50,100 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 7,900 tons). The total inventory continued to be de-stocked, indicating that the current demand for hot-rolled coils has resilience. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years. If the de-stocking trend continues, the pressure on prices will decrease [4]. - **Policy**: A new regulation on the export license management of steel products has been introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Addressing involution competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply-side production, expectation of the start of winter storage demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Steel mill resumption of production in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in soybean prices is attributed to a combination of supply-side dynamics and market sentiment, rather than a genuine supply shortage. The domestic soybean supply remains stable, with a projected production of approximately 20.9 million tons in 2025, reflecting a 1.2% year-on-year increase [3][12][13]. Supply Dynamics - The current soybean market is characterized by "loose total supply but tight circulation," as new beans are quickly released from grassroots selling pressure, leading to a transfer of ownership towards trade channels [3][12]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs indicates that domestic soybean production is not in a state of shortage, supporting the notion that the price increase is more about market dynamics than actual supply constraints [3][12]. - The recent adjustments in state reserve purchasing standards have been interpreted as a "policy bottom moving up," which has further elevated price levels [5][15]. Market Behavior - The behavior of grain holders, including farmers and trading companies, reflects a tendency to hold onto stocks due to expectations of policy support and concerns over tight domestic import supplies in the first quarter [4][14]. - The market has seen a significant transfer of soybean stocks from farmers to trade channels, with trade entities actively building inventories in response to concerns over potential disruptions in U.S. soybean imports [5][14]. - The recent auction of old soybeans has also boosted market sentiment, with a high transaction rate and premium prices indicating strong demand from traders [6][15]. Future Outlook - Two potential scenarios for the soybean market are identified: - Scenario A: Continued state reserve purchases or price adjustments could maintain a strong price center [7][16]. - Scenario B: A weakening of reserve purchasing efforts could lead to price corrections, particularly for lower-protein soybeans, while higher-protein soybeans may remain more resilient due to some rigid demand [7][16]. - The overall market is expected to remain supported by policy measures and pre-holiday stocking demands, but caution is advised regarding potential price volatility stemming from changes in import schedules and reserve release strategies [7][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current supply and demand of hot-rolled coils are both increasing. Last week's data shows that the increase in production is greater than the growth in demand. Coupled with the relatively high absolute level of inventory, there is no upward driving force for prices. The destocking of social inventory relies on low-price promotions, and the partial accumulation of steel mill inventory indicates that traders are cautious about winter storage. From the cost side, coking coal is at a low level while iron ore is relatively strong. However, there are still expectations for anti-involution policies, so there is also support at the bottom. It is expected that the short-term trend will be weak and volatile. The daily line has fallen below the 20-day moving average, so beware of further weakening [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures increased its open interest by 26,969 lots on Monday, with a trading volume of 391,613 lots, an increase compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,243 yuan, the high was 3,277 yuan. It decreased in price with increased open interest during the day, closing at 3,248 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.79% [1]. - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,270 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 22 yuan, close to par [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply side: As of December 31, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 109,700 tons week-on-week to 3.0451 million tons. The output has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, and the rebound was significant compared to last week. This was mainly due to the improvement in steel mills' profitability, which increased production enthusiasm. Additionally, some steel mills reallocated molten iron from building materials to plates, and steel mills ended their annual maintenance and increased the intensity of resuming production, driving the supply to increase. The subsequent increase needs to be observed [4]. - Demand side: As of December 31, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 37,300 tons week-on-week to 3.1077 million tons. The apparent consumption rebounded, indicating that demand still had resilience, but subsequent demand data still needed to be monitored [4]. - Inventory side: As of December 31, the total inventory decreased by 62,600 tons week-on-week to 3.7096 million tons (social inventory decreased by 80,600 tons, and steel mill inventory increased by 18,000 tons, with a total inventory decrease of 62,600 tons). The total inventory continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed, indicating that demand had good resilience in late December. The increase in steel mill inventory was mainly affected by the end of the month and the New Year's Day holiday. The total inventory was at a five-year high, and inventory still had a suppressing effect on prices [4]. - Policy side: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in the macro - economic aspect. Deeply rectifying involution - style competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5]. - External macro: The events between the United States and Venezuela may have uncertain impacts [6]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: A significant decrease in supply - side production, the expectation of the start of winter storage demand, the rush - to - export market, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and the strength of iron ore as a furnace material [6]. - Bearish factors: Steel mills' resumption of production in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and price suppression due to inventory accumulation [6].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the resilience of strong sectors in the market, highlighting significant sales in the duty-free sector in Sanya and the rebound in precious metals prices, particularly silver and copper, which reached historical highs [1][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - The State Council has called for proactive measures to ensure a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan, with Sanya's duty-free sales reaching 1.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 60% [1]. - The U.S. stock market saw gains, with major indices rising, particularly in the retail sector, while the banking sector lagged. The market's trading volume was 1.75 trillion yuan [2][12]. - The financing balance decreased by 3.32 billion yuan to 24.82556 billion yuan, indicating a tightening of liquidity [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1%, while the core CPI increased by 2.6%, also below expectations [3][20]. - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs in November, exceeding the forecast of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [3][20]. Group 3: Precious Metals - Silver prices continued to rise, supported by the lower-than-expected CPI, which provides room for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][20]. - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive due to factors such as the weakening of the U.S. dollar's credibility and central bank gold purchases [3][20]. Group 4: Aluminum Market - The night session saw Shanghai aluminum prices increase by 0.93%. The U.S. core CPI's slowest growth since early 2021 has raised questions about its reliability, but the impact on the aluminum market is expected to be limited [4][20]. - Short-term aluminum prices are expected to stabilize, with a long-term optimistic outlook as demand remains steady despite some signs of weakening in downstream operations [4][20]. Group 5: Industry News - The European Commission proposed to relax the 2035 ban on the sale of fuel vehicles, seen as a concession to the traditional automotive industry facing pressure [7]. - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) aims to take on significant national technological tasks, particularly in critical areas where other enterprises lack capability [8]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The European shipping index saw a slight decline, with the SCFI index at $1,533 per TEU, reflecting lower-than-expected market conditions [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The direction of strength in the stock index futures market has switched again, and it is recommended to allocate cautiously with large - cap stocks performing better recently [1][9] - In the stock index options market, year - end behavior is conservative, and protective put options should be used to deal with risks [2][9] - In the treasury bond futures market, the sentiment of ultra - long - end bonds may remain unstable, and while the bond market is supported in the short term, caution is needed for ultra - long - end bonds [3][9][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the market failed to continue the Wednesday sentiment, with major broad - based indices weakening. The ChiNext Index dropped 2% and trading volume shrank. The allocation style became more conservative, with dividend and micro - cap structures outperforming. Industries such as airports, coal, and banks rose over 2%. High - dividend and consumer sectors were resilient. In the future, it is in a stage where both bullish and bearish factors are difficult to be falsified, and it is recommended to hold IC & dividend index [1][9] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The underlying market was volatile and differentiated. The total turnover of the options market was over 7.099 billion yuan, a 29.54% decrease from the previous day. Mid - term sentiment needs improvement, and the short - term market has turned defensive. Volatility of some ETFs increased. It is recommended to use protective put options [2][9] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. However, the ultra - long - end bonds showed instability, with the 30Y treasury bond yield rising about 0.9BP. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, net injecting 6.97 billion yuan. The market's expectation of loose monetary policy may have increased. It is recommended to adopt different strategies for trends, hedging, basis, and yield curve [3][9][10] 3.2 Economic Calendar - It shows the economic data of China and the US from December 15 - 19, 2025, including China's reserve currency in November, the US non - farm payrolls change in November, and the core CPI in November [11] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Domestic Macro**: The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to expand effective investment, including in emerging industries and productive service industries, and address issues in private investment [12] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Tungsten concept stocks rose. The rise in tungsten prices is due to supply - demand factors and future expectations, and the increase in tungsten powder prices is related to the tight supply of tungsten concentrates [12] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The European Parliament approved a plan to phase out Russian natural gas imports by the end of 2027. The US EIA crude oil inventory decreased last week, while gasoline inventory increased [13] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Stock Index Options Data**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Not detailed in the provided content