Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown significant strength, with both futures and spot prices increasing, indicating a shift in market sentiment and potential investment opportunities in long-term bonds [1][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Performance - On August 25, the futures market saw the 10-year bond contract close at 107.95 yuan, up 0.27%, while the 30-year bond contract closed at 116.8 yuan, up 0.78% [1]. - The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 2 basis points to 1.7625%, and the 30-year yield fell below 2%, reported at 1.9975% [1]. - The yield curve has shifted to a bear steepening pattern, with short-term rates remaining stable while long-term rates have increased due to various factors [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The central bank has responded to liquidity conditions by increasing reverse repos and MLF, indicating a generally accommodative stance [4]. - The external environment has shifted with Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting, which may open up more room for domestic monetary easing [4]. - There is a notable divergence in market sentiment, with some institutions opting to remain cautious as public fund durations have decreased [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - As the equity market's growth slows, long-term bond yields are expected to enter a downward trend, supported by a loose monetary environment [4]. - The potential for a dual bull market in both stocks and bonds is highlighted, suggesting that investors should focus on duration strategies and consider opportunities in the 10-year government bond ETF (511260) [4].

Market Overview - A-shares opened higher and continued to rise, with total trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan, indicating a strong market sentiment [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883.56 points, up 1.51%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12441.07 points, up 2.26% [1] Sector Performance - All sectors experienced gains, with telecommunications continuing its strong performance, followed by non-ferrous metals and real estate [1] - Mining ETFs and non-ferrous metal ETFs saw significant increases, with the mining ETF rising by 5.32% and the non-ferrous 60 ETF increasing by 5% [6] Economic Indicators - The bond market showed significant strength, with the 10-year government bond yield falling to 1.7625%, down 2 basis points from the previous trading day [2][5] - The recent dovish signals from the Federal Reserve have raised expectations for interest rate cuts, positively impacting market sentiment and risk appetite [6][7] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on undervalued growth stocks and consider ETFs such as the CSI A500 ETF and Hong Kong Technology ETF to capture opportunities [2][5] - The recent policy changes in rare earth management are expected to enhance supply constraints and increase price bargaining power, benefiting leading companies in the sector [6] Gold Market Insights - The gold market is experiencing upward momentum due to increased expectations for interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, making gold a preferred asset [7][8] - China's central bank continues to increase its gold reserves, with the latest data showing a rise to 73.96 million ounces, reflecting a sustained trend of gold accumulation [7]

Group 1 - The core phenomenon of simultaneous rise in stocks and bonds is a rare occurrence, typically indicating a "seesaw" effect between these asset classes, but current liquidity easing signals have led to this unusual market behavior [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's policy shift, particularly the dovish signals from Chairman Powell regarding potential interest rate cuts, has significantly influenced global market liquidity expectations, leading to increased capital flows into emerging markets [2][3] - Historical precedents show that abundant liquidity is a crucial prerequisite for simultaneous gains in both stocks and bonds, as seen during the period from January 2019 to March 2020 in China [3][4] Group 2 - Today's market performance indicates a preference for growth sectors such as computer and communication industries, reflecting a focus on policy-supported areas and technological growth [4] - The bond market benefits from expectations of declining interest rates, attracting funds in a liquidity-rich environment, similar to the stock and bond bull market from September 2014 to June 2015 [4][5] - The simultaneous rise in stocks and bonds is a collective interpretation of the policy environment, suggesting a re-evaluation of emerging market assets in light of global capital flow changes [4][5] Group 3 - Overall, the simultaneous rise in stocks and bonds is a direct response to global liquidity easing expectations, driven by external policy signals and internal funding allocation needs [5] - Understanding the liquidity-driven market characteristics is more crucial for investors than focusing on individual indicators, as liquidity often dictates asset price movements [5]

Core Viewpoint - The current probability of a "deposit migration" from savings to the stock market is high, driven by factors such as declining deposit rates, liquidity expansion, initial asset appreciation effects, and policy catalysts [1][6]. Group 1: Historical Context of Deposit Migration - Historically, there have been seven rounds of deposit migration, with indicators such as annual changes in household savings rates, the growth rate of household deposits compared to M2, and monthly deposit growth rates [2][13]. - The first round of deposit migration occurred from 1998 to 2000, primarily driven by market reforms that increased consumption rather than stock market investments [19][28]. - The second round from 2009 to 2012 saw deposits initially flow into the stock market, followed by a shift to wealth management and trust products [31][33]. Group 2: Triggers for Deposit Migration - Key triggers for deposit migration include the decline of risk-free interest rates and deposit rates, which widen the yield gap between deposits and alternative investment products [3][14]. - Liquidity and credit expansion have historically prompted asset reallocation, as seen during the 2008 "four trillion stimulus plan" and subsequent monetary policy adjustments [3][14]. - The emergence of asset appreciation effects, such as significant stock market gains, has also been a consistent factor in driving deposit migration [3][14]. Group 3: Channels for Deposit Migration - Deposits typically migrate to the stock market, especially during periods of notable stock market gains, as seen in 2009 and 2014-2015 [4][15]. - Other channels include increased consumption due to market reforms, diversified investment channels, and real estate investments [4][15]. - Low-risk products such as bank wealth management and money market funds also attract migrating deposits [4][15]. Group 4: Characteristics of Deposit Migration to the Stock Market - Historical analysis shows that deposit migration to the stock market is often accompanied by significant appreciation in stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 103.4% in 2009 and 159.5% in 2014-2015 [5][16]. - The migration typically occurs after a delay following stock market uptrends, indicating that it is a reaction to market performance rather than a precursor [5][16]. - Increased household deposits entering the stock market can amplify the market's upward momentum, as evidenced by the subsequent rises in stock indices following deposit migrations [5][16]. Group 5: Current Trends and Future Outlook - The current environment suggests a high likelihood of a new round of deposit migration, driven by lower deposit rates, liquidity expansion, and initial stock market gains of 25% since the 2024 policy changes [6][17]. - Initially, deposits are expected to flow into stable assets like bank wealth management products and money market funds, with a gradual shift towards equity assets anticipated in the latter half of 2024 [6][17].

Economic Overview - The economy in July shows signs of weak recovery, with a potential trend of high-to-low performance throughout the year, indicating increased volatility due to external uncertainties[1] - The nominal GDP is projected to reach around 140 trillion yuan, with limited elasticity in growth rates and GDP deflator index in the second half of the year[12] Industrial Growth - In July, the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations, while month-on-month growth was 0.38%[14] - Manufacturing demand is recovering but showing signs of marginal slowdown, with the new orders index at 49.4%, indicating a decrease in manufacturing market demand[16] Consumer Spending - The retail sales of consumer goods in July grew by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in June, with a notable decline of 1.1 percentage points[19] - Factors affecting retail sales include reduced funding for the "old-for-new" policy, which decreased from 162 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 to 138 billion yuan in the second half[21] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 288.229 billion yuan, growing by 1.6%, which is below market expectations of 2.7%[29] - Infrastructure investment grew by 3.2%, while real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 12.0%[29] Employment Trends - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in July was 5.2%, slightly up from the previous month, reflecting seasonal pressures from the graduation season[6] - Employment policies are being implemented to mitigate youth unemployment, including support for job creation in various sectors[6] Investment Outlook - Manufacturing investment growth was 6.2% year-on-year, but July recorded a negative growth of -0.3%, the first negative reading since July 2020, primarily due to high base effects and uncertainties from trade tensions[45] - The overall investment environment remains cautious, with private investment declining by 1.5% year-on-year, particularly in the real estate sector[29]

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown strong upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the key level of 3674.40 points, reaching a new high since the "9·24" rally last year, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 10% [1] - On August 14, the index continued to rise, surpassing 3700 points, marking the highest level since December 2021, with trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reaching 2.18 trillion yuan, indicating a significant increase in market activity [1][2] Equity Market Dynamics - The current rally in the equity market is driven by multiple factors, including improved expectations from "anti-involution" policies, increased participation from retail investors, institutional funds, and foreign capital, as well as resilient macroeconomic fundamentals and proactive fiscal policies [2] - Various sectors are experiencing structural opportunities, with significant gains in securities, semiconductors, and insurance, indicating a shift away from a market dominated solely by bank stocks [2] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market has shown a mixed performance, with the yield on 10-year government bonds rising from 1.6855% on August 11 to 1.7350% on August 13, reflecting a lack of clear catalysts for bond price increases [1][2] - The bond market is currently influenced by two main factors: the strong performance of the equity market reducing the willingness of bond investors to increase positions, and a divergence in institutional behavior, with funds and brokerages being net sellers while banks and insurance companies are net buyers [3][5] Tax Policy Impact - The recent restoration of value-added tax on interest income from newly issued government and local bonds has led to an increase in selling pressure from funds, impacting their future bond allocation strategies [5][6] - Despite the tax changes, the overall impact on the bond market is expected to be limited, as the demand for fixed-income products remains relatively stable [8] Future Outlook - The bond market is perceived to be in a "top and bottom" range, with limited potential for significant yield declines due to the strong equity market and investor risk appetite, while still supported by a loose monetary policy [7] - Analysts suggest that the "look at stocks, do bonds" strategy may continue, but the coexistence of a "dual bull" market for stocks and bonds is also possible as the capital market recovers [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The equity market has shown significant growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an 8-day winning streak, while the bond market has also performed well, indicating a new trend of "dual bull" in both markets [1][2][4]. Group 1: Equity Market Performance - The stock market experienced a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the high point from October 8 of the previous year, reaching a nearly 4-year high [2]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.15 trillion yuan, marking a return to above 2 trillion yuan after 114 trading days [2]. Group 2: Bond Market Performance - The bond market saw a comprehensive increase in government bond futures, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.10% to 118.270 yuan, and the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.02% to 108.435 yuan [2]. - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market experienced a decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield falling by 0.75 basis points to 1.72% [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market is becoming desensitized to the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, indicating a potential return to fundamental factors driving both equity and bond markets [4][6]. - Future expectations indicate that the 10-year government bond yield may stabilize around 1.65%-1.70% as new bonds are issued, leading to a revaluation of interest rate bonds [4]. - The outlook for the second half of the year suggests a "dual bull" market, with equity investments focusing on structural opportunities in the new economy, while the bond market is characterized by a low-growth, low-inflation, and low-interest-rate environment [6].

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 配置盘可以看收益率逢高增持 信用债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 08 月 11 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 徐沛翔 | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | 转债合理回调，看多逻辑不变：可转债市 场周观察 2025-08-04 信用债正在进入调整后的配置窗口期：信 用债市场周观察 2025-08-04 北交所打新：适合"固收+"的低回撤增厚 策略：固定收益市场周观察 2025-08-04 有关分析师 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the return of market allocation forces, suggesting a cautious increase in credit positions, particularly in the 2-3 year range, with a potential configuration window around mid-August [4][10][11] - The expectation for the second half of the year remains a "dual bull market" for stocks and bonds, with stocks outperforming bonds, driven by market allocation dynamics [9][10] - The corporate perpetual bond market shows limited potential for excess returns in August, recommending a conservative approach with a focus on larger issuers [11][18] Group 2 - In the primary market for corporate perpetual bonds, issuance volume increased, with a total of 158 bonds issued in July, raising 171.5 billion yuan, a 9% increase from the previous month [18][19] - The financing cost for AAA and AA rated bonds decreased, with rates at 2.12% and 2.35% respectively, down 11 basis points and 18 basis points [18][19] - The sectors leading in issuance include public utilities, urban investment, and construction, with Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong being the top provinces for new bond issuance [20][21][22] Group 3 - In the secondary market, the yield on corporate perpetual bonds showed mixed results, with short-term yields remaining stable while medium to long-term yields increased, leading to passive compression of spreads [28][30] - The report notes that the majority of urban investment perpetual bonds maintained stable or slightly compressed spreads, while industrial bonds experienced slight widening [30][33] - The report highlights that the risk profile of asset-backed securities (ABS) remains attractive, with a focus on standardized underlying assets, despite limited opportunities in August [13][14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market continued its recovery this week, with most interest rates declining to varying degrees, especially short - term and credit interest rates. The short - term interest rate's further downward breakthrough momentum is weak, and the bond market may experience short - term phased oscillations, with the subsequent interest rate more likely to break through downward [1][4] - Although other markets and some policies have short - term impacts on the bond market, the continuous loosening of funds provides protection, and the overall pattern of asset shortage in the bond market remains unchanged [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Bond Market Current Situation - This week, the bond market continued its recovery, with short - term and credit interest rates declining more significantly. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate dropped 1.8bps to 1.62%, and the 1 - year and 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds decreased by 2.7bps and 0.7bps respectively. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate fell 1.7bps to 1.69%, while the 30 - year Treasury bond rate rose slightly by 1.1bps to 1.96%. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate has recovered most of its decline from the impact of the stock and commodity markets [1][8] Factors Restraining the Downward Breakthrough of Interest Rates - Other markets still suppress the bond market sentiment. The recent strong performance of the stock market affects the bond market sentiment, especially long - term bonds. The 30 - year Treasury bond has been weak recently due to this factor [2][9] - Institutional caution and the implementation of some growth - stabilizing policies will short - term constrain the bullish forces. In the second quarter of this year, the duration of funds increased significantly, and high positions made institutions operate more cautiously. The relaxation of purchase restrictions in Beijing may also affect the downward force of interest rates [2][11] Factors Protecting the Bond Market - The continuous loosening of funds provides market protection, making it difficult for interest rates to rise significantly. The overnight interest rate is around 1.3%, and R007 is around 1.4%, protecting the overall market. During the market recovery since July 29, short - term interest rates have declined more significantly [3][11] - In the future, funds will remain loose. Financing demand may continue to slow down, government bond supply will decrease, and fund supply is sufficient. The central bank has stated that it will maintain ample liquidity [3][12] Future Outlook for the Bond Market - The bond market may experience short - term phased oscillations. As the fundamentals and asset supply - demand change, the interest rate is more likely to break through downward. From the fundamental perspective, low interest rates are needed to boost domestic demand, and from the asset supply - demand perspective, the decrease in asset supply and continuous loosening of funds will increase the pressure of asset shortage [4][13] - After the phased cooling of the stock and commodity markets, the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds may oscillate when approaching the pre - adjustment levels of 1.65% and 1.85%. Subsequently, as the fundamentals change and the asset shortage evolves, the interest rate may break through downward, more likely near or in the fourth quarter [4][18]