Report Overview - Report Date: July 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The main price of industrial silicon futures has encountered resistance in its upward movement and is undergoing adjustment. The overall supply - demand remains loose. Currently, the dominant factors of the market are policy > funds > fundamentals. The continuous increase in spot prices compresses the adjustment space of the futures market. For the short - term, it is expected to show a cautiously strong and volatile trend, and a bullish trend continuation requires a strong breakthrough above the 10,000 - yuan mark [4] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The closing price of Si2509 was 9,630 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.77%. The trading volume was 1,172,879 lots, and the open interest was 336,274 lots, with a net increase of 1,498 lots [4] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of industrial silicon continued to rise. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 9,550 yuan/ton, Sichuan 553 was 9,050 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 was 10,500 yuan/ton [4] - **Outlook**: Southwest restarts offset the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang, and the monthly output change is not significant compared to the first half of the year. Photovoltaic demand has slightly increased due to the restart of polysilicon enterprises, but the demand has decreased due to the shutdown and rectification of a Shandong organic silicon enterprise. Overall, the supply - demand remains loose [4] 3.2 Market News - On July 23, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 49,776 lots, a net decrease of 330 lots from the previous trading day [5] - On July 18, the work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries including steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials are about to be introduced, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [5] - In June 2025, China's industrial silicon export volume reached 68,300 tons, a month - on - month surge of 23% and a year - on - year increase of 12%, reaching a 18 - month high. Exports to Southeast Asia accounted for 58%, with Thailand (21,000 tons) and Malaysia (18,000 tons) being the main incremental markets [5] - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%, but the domestic installed capacity in June was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "B" for the new materials sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The new materials sector has shown an upward trend, with the new materials index increasing by 1.37%, although it underperformed compared to the ChiNext index, which rose by 1.81% [2]. - The report highlights the implementation of "anti-involution" policies in the new energy vehicle industry, which are expected to enhance the profitability of companies within the supply chain [4]. - The forecast for new energy vehicle sales in 2025 is projected to reach 16 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.26%, indicating sustained growth in the industry [4]. Market Performance - The new materials sector experienced a weekly increase, with notable performances in various sub-sectors: synthetic biology index up by 4.18%, semiconductor materials up by 0.81%, electronic chemicals up by 1.10%, biodegradable plastics up by 1.74%, industrial gases up by 3.16%, and battery chemicals up by 1.45% [2][16]. - The overall market performance for the week (July 14-18, 2025) showed the CSI 300 index rising by 1.09%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.69%, and the ChiNext index by 3.17% [12]. Price Tracking - The report provides a weekly price tracking of various chemical products, including amino acids, biodegradable plastics, industrial gases, and vitamins, indicating stable prices for many products with slight fluctuations [3][11]. - For instance, the price of valine is reported at 14,400 RMB/ton with a weekly increase of 0.35%, while arginine is at 24,500 RMB/ton with a decrease of 2.00% [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Jun Ding Da, Times New Materials, Prit, and Nanjing Julong, which are expected to benefit from the favorable policies and market conditions [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bullish with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][5] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][7] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][8] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][12] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][12] - Coke: Bullish after the second price increase, with a trend strength of 1 [2][15] - Coking coal: Bullish due to supply policy constraints, with a trend strength of 1 [2][16] - Steam coal: Stabilizing with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][20] - Logs: Fluctuating with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][24] Core Views - The report provides daily investment outlooks and trend strengths for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, steam coal, and logs. Analyses are based on fundamental data, macro and industry news [2][4][7] Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price Movement**: Futures closed at 812 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-1.34%); import and most domestic ore spot prices declined [5] - **Macro & Industry News**: The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [5] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Price Movement**: RB2510 closed at 3,274 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.31%); HC2510 closed at 3,438 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.20%) [8] - **Macro & Industry News**: In June, total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, up 5.4% year - on - year. A new round of ten key industries' stable growth work plans will be released soon. Weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand of steel products [9][10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Movement**: Futures prices of both declined, while spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased [12] - **Macro & Industry News**: On July 23, prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions increased. Some changes in production and procurement of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese occurred [13][14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price Movement**: JM2509 closed at 1,135.5 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan/ton (8.30%); J2509 closed at 1,707.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.59%) [16] - **Price & Position**: Northern port coking coal quotes and CCI metallurgical coal index showed price changes. On July 23, there were changes in long and short positions of JM2509 and J2509 contracts [16][17][18] Steam Coal - **Price Movement**: ZC2507 had no trading on the previous day, previous opening was 931.6 yuan/ton, closing at 840 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton [21] - **Fundamentals**: Southern port and domestic origin quotes of steam coal were provided. On July 23, there were no changes in long and short positions of ZC2507 [22] Logs - **Price Movement**: There were declines in closing prices of 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts, with fluctuations in trading volume and open interest [25] - **Macro & Industry News**: The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [27]

Report Information - Report Date: July 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Industry: Industrial Silicon Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The main contract price of industrial silicon futures opened high and moved higher, then fell sharply after a mid - session rally with significant position reduction. The closing price of Si2509 was 9,525 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. The trading volume was 1,681,660 lots, and the open interest was 334,779 lots, with a net reduction of 46,182 lots [4]. - The spot price of industrial silicon continued to rise. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 9,550 yuan/ton, Sichuan 553 was 9,050 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 was 10,500 yuan/ton [4]. Market Outlook - The fundamental factors are not the main driving force currently. The resumption of production in the southwest offsets the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang, and the monthly output change is not significant compared to the first half of the year. The photovoltaic demand has increased slightly due to the resumption of production of polysilicon enterprises, but the shutdown and rectification of a certain organic silicon enterprise in Shandong has reduced the demand. Overall, the supply - demand remains loose [4]. - Currently, the order of factors influencing the market is policy > funds > fundamentals. After the polysilicon limit - up board was opened, industrial silicon also reduced positions by 46,000 lots and fell on heavy volume. If it fails to break through the 10,000 - yuan mark in the short term, it is likely to reach a phased peak. However, due to the current policy and spot price support, the downside space is also limited. It is expected to fluctuate strongly at high levels on an intraday basis [4]. Market News - On July 23, the futures warehouse receipt volume of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,106 lots, a net increase of 53 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - On July 18, the State Council Information Office held a press conference. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's Chief Engineer Xie Shaofeng stated that the steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials are即将出台. The ministry will promote key industries to adjust the structure, optimize the supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [5]. - In June 2025, China's industrial silicon export volume reached 68,300 tons, a sharp increase of 23% month - on - month and 12% year - on - year, hitting a 18 - month high. Exports to Southeast Asia accounted for 58%, with Thailand (21,000 tons) and Malaysia (18,000 tons) being the main incremental markets, mainly used for local photovoltaic module production [5]. - As of the end of June, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed solar power generation capacity was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%, but the domestic installed capacity in June was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 23, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Industry Daily Report - Researcher: Xu Yuhua [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - On July 23, the ferrosilicon 2509 contract closed at 5,832, up 0.90%. The Ningxia ferrosilicon spot price was reported at 5,610, up 110 yuan/ton. With a strong macro - expectation of an upcoming steel industry growth plan, low - level operation of production, a decline in Ningxia semi - coke price, and weak overall steel demand, the ferroalloy production profit is negative. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as an oscillating and slightly upward trend [2] - On July 23, the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 5,938, down 0.37%. The Inner Mongolia manganese silicon spot price was reported at 5,730, up 30 yuan/ton. Affected by the policy of optimizing supply and eliminating backward production capacity, coal prices have risen continuously. The manufacturer's operating rate has been rising for 8 consecutive weeks at a low level, with a moderately high inventory. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the 4 - hour K - line has a large - volume negative close and decline. It should be treated as an oscillating trend [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Manganese Silicon (SM)**: The closing price of the SM main contract was 5,938 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan; the position was 578,273 lots, down 14,232 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 74,609 lots, down 3,160 lots; the spread between the 1 - 9 month contracts was 50 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts was 77,972, down 523 [2] - **Ferrosilicon (SF)**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5,832 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; the position was 393,189 lots, down 848 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 35,969 lots, up 8,342 lots; the spread between the 1 - 9 month contracts was 84 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts was 22,150, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Manganese Silicon**: The Inner Mongolia FeMn68Si18 price was 5,730 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the Guizhou FeMn68Si18 price was 5,670 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yunnan FeMn68Si18 price was 5,700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the weekly average of the manganese silicon index was 5,610 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the basis of the SM main contract was - 208 yuan/ton, up 124 yuan [2] - **Ferrosilicon**: The Inner Mongolia FeSi75 - B price was 5,640 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the Qinghai FeSi75 - B price was 5,430 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the Ningxia FeSi75 - B price was 5,610 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the basis of the SF main contract was - 222 yuan/ton, up 152 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Manganese Silicon**: The price of South African Mn38 lump ore at Tianjin Port was 35 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the manganese ore port inventory was 428.50 million tons, down 4.20 million tons [2] - **Ferrosilicon**: The price of silica (98%, Northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu) was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Manganese Silicon**: The operating rate of manganese silicon enterprises was 40.53%, down 0.02%; the weekly supply was 182,840 tons, up 560 tons; the manufacturer's inventory (half - month) was 216,300 tons, down 4,500 tons; the national steel mill inventory (month) was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days; the demand of the five major steel types (weekly) was 123,381 tons, down 1,547 tons [2] - **Ferrosilicon**: The operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises was 32.45%, up 1.25%; the weekly supply was 100,000 tons, up 1,300 tons; the manufacturer's inventory (half - month) was 63,500 tons, down 6,700 tons; the national steel mill inventory (month) was 14.25 days, down 1.13 days; the demand of the five major steel types (weekly) was 20,013.70 tons, down 153.60 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, up 0.35%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.92%, up 1.05%; the monthly crude steel output was 8,318.40 million tons, down 336.10 million tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The US reached trade agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia. The US will lower the tariff on Philippine goods from 20% to 19%, and Indonesia will supply key minerals to the US and cancel 99% of tariff barriers [2] - Germany announced an investment initiative worth over 630 billion euros to boost the economy, with 61 enterprises participating, and the investment will be used for factory construction, scientific research, and infrastructure in the next three years [2] - The US redeployed nuclear weapons to the UK after 17 years, which means a major change in NATO's nuclear strategy in the European theater [2] - The US and Japan reached a large - scale deal, with Japan paying a 15% reciprocal tariff to the US and investing 550 billion dollars in the US as required [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and fats: Oscillation [5] - Protein meal: Oscillation [6] - Corn/starch: Oscillation [6] - Pigs: Oscillation with a bullish bias [7] - Natural rubber: Oscillation [8] - Synthetic rubber: Oscillation [10] - Cotton: Oscillation [11] - Sugar: Oscillation [12] - Pulp: Oscillation with a bullish bias [14] - Logs: Oscillation with a bearish bias [15] 2. Core Views of the Report - Commodity bullish sentiment is strengthening, and the center of rubber prices continues to move up. Yesterday, rapeseed oil led the decline in the oils and fats market due to the good growth of US soybeans. The recovery of oil refinery profit margins may stimulate production, and attention should be paid to the risk of high - level adjustments in protein meal. Corn arrivals are at a low level, and spot prices are oscillating strongly. There is an abundant supply of pigs, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Synthetic rubber prices continue to rise following the overall commodity trend. Pulp investment should follow the macro trend and go long. Low inventory supports cotton prices, while increased imports add upward resistance to sugar prices. Logs are running strongly due to a favorable macro environment [1]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: US soybeans are growing well, and rapeseed oil led the decline in the oils and fats market yesterday. - **Industry Information**: As of July 20, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the market expectation of 71%. - **Logic**: US soybeans may decline due to expected rainfall, and domestic oils and fats oscillated lower yesterday. The macro environment shows a weakening US dollar and stable crude oil prices. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is still at a relatively high level, and the market expects a bumper harvest. The demand for US soybean oil in biodiesel is expected to increase, and domestic soybean oil inventories are rising. Palm oil production is in the increasing season, with expected inventory accumulation. Rapeseed oil inventories are high but slowly decreasing. - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is facing multiple factors. Recently, the pressure of correction has increased, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of technical support below [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The recovery of oil refinery profit margins may stimulate production, and attention should be paid to the risk of high - level adjustments. - **Industry Information**: On July 22, 2025, the international soybean trade premiums and discounts showed different changes, and the average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing increased. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate is slightly lower than expected, with a risk of low precipitation in the next 15 days. The US soybean export outlook is worrying, but Brazilian soybean premiums are rising. Domestically, the spot price follows the futures, but the basis weakens slightly. Soybean arrivals increase, and the refinery operating rate rises, leading to an increase in soybean meal inventory. In the long term, the consumption of soybean meal may increase steadily. - **Outlook**: The domestic double - meal futures are stronger than US soybeans, and the basis is expected to be weak. Oil refineries can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price at low prices. Hold long positions at 2900 [6]. 3.1.3 Corn - **View**: Corn arrivals are at a low level, and spot prices are oscillating strongly. - **Industry Information**: The average domestic corn price increased by 2 yuan/ton, and the main contract closing price increased by 0.09%. - **Logic**: As the trade sector actively sells grain, the supply in ports and deep - processing industries decreases. It is expected that the supply of old crops will tighten further from July to August, and prices may rebound in some areas. However, downstream demand is weak, and the market has digested the bullish factors. Recently, due to weather and previous overselling, spot prices have rebounded. New - season corn production is normal, and there is an expectation of increased supply and decreased prices in the second half of the year. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is uncertainty in old - crop de - stocking, and prices may rebound. After the new - crop listing, there is a downward driving force [6][7]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: There is an abundant supply of pigs, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. - **Industry Information**: On July 22, the spot price of pigs in Henan decreased by 0.35%, and the futures closing price increased by 0.10%. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply of groups of pigs is accelerating, and farmers still have the sentiment to fatten pigs. In the medium term, the number of new - born piglets has been increasing, and the supply of pigs is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, the production capacity is still high, but the government is guiding the industry to adjust. The demand is not strong, and there is still sentiment for secondary fattening among farmers. - **Outlook**: The market is oscillating with a bullish bias. The supply - side adjustment policy has a positive impact on the market, but the supply pressure in the third quarter remains. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [7]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Commodity bullish sentiment is strengthening, and the center of rubber prices continues to move up. - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products showed different changes on July 22. - **Logic**: The commodity market is strong, and the bullish sentiment continues. Natural rubber follows the upward trend, and its fundamentals are currently stable. On the supply side, Asian production areas are affected by the rainy season, and the supply is limited. On the demand side, the operating rate of some tire enterprises has recovered, and the demand is stable. In the third quarter, there may be de - stocking transactions, and rubber prices may rise further if the macro sentiment remains positive. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it is easy to rise and difficult to fall following the overall commodity sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in capital sentiment [8][9]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures market continues to rise following the overall commodity trend. - **Industry Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed different changes. - **Logic**: The market is mainly driven by the macro environment. In terms of fundamentals, there are no major changes. The price of butadiene has been oscillating strongly, and downstream demand is good, with no obvious supply pressure. The short - term price center may rise further. - **Outlook**: It will generally maintain range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to changes in production facilities [10]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: Low inventory supports cotton prices. - **Industry Information**: As of July 22, the number of registered warrants and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton futures showed changes. - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, the supply of cotton is expected to be loose. It is currently the off - season for downstream demand, and enterprises' operating rates are declining, with a slight increase in finished - product inventory. However, the de - stocking speed of cotton is fast, and the supply is tight before the new - crop listing. In the short term, low inventory supports prices, but the risk of a pull - back is increasing. In the medium term, prices may be under pressure after the new - crop listing. - **Outlook**: The market is oscillating. Low inventory supports prices, but the upward resistance is increasing [11]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: Increased imports add upward resistance to sugar prices. - **Industry Information**: On July 22, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar futures decreased. - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, the global sugar supply is expected to be loose, with production increases expected in major producing countries. Domestic sales are fast, and industrial inventories are decreasing. However, imports have been increasing since May, and Brazil is entering the peak production and export period. - **Outlook**: In the long term, sugar prices have a downward driving force and are expected to oscillate weakly. In the short term, there is a lack of bullish factors, and the market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [12]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The investment should follow the macro trend and go long. - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products showed different changes. - **Logic**: The pulp futures have been rising recently, mainly driven by the macro environment. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the upward driving force comes from the macro aspect. On the supply side, the US dollar price is falling, and overseas pulp mill inventories are high. On the demand side, downstream paper production and sales are increasing, but the price performance reflects poor market expectations. In the short term, the macro environment drives the price up, and the valuation support weakens after the rebound. In the medium term, there is pressure from high imports, and the supply is expected to be abundant. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to oscillate strongly due to a favorable macro environment and relatively low valuation [13][14]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: Logs are running strongly due to a favorable macro environment. - **Logic**: The log market has filled the previous gap and is oscillating around 840. Technically, it maintains an upward trend. Fundamentally, port inventory has decreased, but the short - term circulation pressure of deliverable goods has increased, and the ability of processing plants to receive goods has decreased. The import volume from New Zealand has decreased, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium term. Although it is the off - season, the overall demand this year is stable. The new foreign quotation has increased, which reflects the strong willingness of domestic traders to buy at low prices. - **Outlook**: The market is oscillating with a bearish bias. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of high - price CFR and the change in the volume of deliverable goods. Speculators are advised to wait and see, and industrial players can participate in hedging according to their costs [15][17]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - This section mainly lists various varieties such as oils and fats, corn, pigs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data analysis content is provided in the given text. 3.3 Rating Standards - **Bullish**: Expected increase greater than 2 standard deviations. - **Oscillation with a bullish bias**: Expected increase between 1 - 2 standard deviations. - **Oscillation**: Expected increase or decrease within plus or minus 1 standard deviation. - **Oscillation with a bearish bias**: Expected decrease between 1 - 2 standard deviations. - **Bearish**: Expected decrease greater than 2 standard deviations. - **Time Period**: Next 2 - 12 weeks. - **Standard Deviation**: 1 standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation / current price [175]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoint - In the short term, policy expectations outweigh the fundamentals for urea. Although the urea futures (UR) fluctuated upwards and closed at 1817 on the previous trading day, and the upcoming industrial growth - stabilization plan may boost the market, the supply pressure of urea remains high with a daily output close to 200,000 tons and an enterprise inventory of about 750,000 tons. While the top - dressing demand in July supports the price, the urea price may face significant downward pressure if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand does not pick up [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Futures Prices**: On July 22, UR01 closed at 1809 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan or 1.63% from July 21), UR05 at 1815 yuan/ton (up 28 yuan or 1.57%), UR09 at 1817 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan or 0.28%), and the Shandong price at 1840 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.55%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - grained)**: On July 22, the prices in Shanxi, Hebei, and Northeast remained unchanged at 1720, 1800, and 1760 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Henan was 1850 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.54%), and the price in Jiangsu was 1840 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The Shandong spot - UR basis was 25 yuan/ton on July 22, down 18 yuan from July 21, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 6 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 and 2550 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong was 5007 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan or 0.34%), and in Jiangsu it remained unchanged at 5200 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - Not mentioned in the report Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1820 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1828 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1782 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1817 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1806 yuan/ton, and the position was 191,764 lots [1]

2025 年 7 月 23 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 螺纹钢：宏观情绪推涨，偏强震荡 热轧卷板：宏观情绪推涨，偏强震荡 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢 | | | | | | | | 上海 杭州 | 3370 3420 | 3320 3370 | 50 50 | | | 北京 | | 3310 | 3260 | 50 | | 现货价格 | 广州 | | 3480 | 3450 | 30 | | | 上海 杭州 | | 3470 3500 | 3420 3440 | 50 | | | 热轧卷板 | | | | 60 | | | 天津 | | 3420 | 3340 | 80 | | | 广州 | | 3490 | 3430 | 60 | | | 唐山钢坯 | | 3130 | 3060 | 70 | | 价 差 | | | 昨日 （元/吨） | 前日 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | | | 基差 （ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The coal industry is undergoing a "counter - involution" process. The National Energy Administration's coal production verification notice has affected the prices of coking coal, coke, thermal coal, and coal stocks [6]. - In the short - term, for coking coal and coke, the price increase is mainly due to emotional and macro - level disturbances, with the order of price influence being policy news > futures - spot behavior > actual fundamentals [8]. - For polysilicon, the expectation of "counter - involution" policies is deepening. Although the supply - demand pattern is weak, the market is trading based on the expectation of policy and capacity restructuring, and the price may continue to reach new highs [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate upwards, and silver is expected to break through and rise. Gold's trend strength is 1, and silver's is also 1 [17][18]. - Yesterday, the prices of Shanghai Gold 2510, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2510 all increased, with daily increases of 0.40%, 0.39%, and 0.99% respectively [16]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: Domestic spot prices are firm, supporting the price. The trend strength is 1. Yesterday, the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased slightly by 0.04% during the day but increased by 0.29% at night. The London Copper 3M electronic disk increased by 0.31% [20][22]. - **Zinc**: It will have a slight oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The Shanghai Zinc main contract rose 0.09% yesterday, and the London Zinc 3M electronic disk rose 0.73% [23][25]. - **Lead**: There are still expected supply - demand contradictions, and the price has support. The trend strength is 0. The Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 0.35% yesterday, while the London Lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.17% [26][27]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening. The trend strength is - 1. The SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 900 yuan/ton yesterday [30][32]. - **Aluminum**: It will oscillate within a range. Alumina will oscillate upwards, and cast aluminum alloy will follow electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are 0, 1, and 0 respectively [33][35]. - **Nickel**: Macro - level sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - level sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine elasticity. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [36][40]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke are both expected to oscillate strongly. The second - round price increase of coke has been implemented. Yesterday, the coking coal and coke main contracts closed at the daily limit, mainly due to the coal production verification notice [6][60]. - **Thermal Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and the price will oscillate and stabilize [64]. - **Polysilicon**: The expectation of policies is becoming stronger, and the price is difficult to fall. The trend strength is 1. The main contract of polysilicon futures rose significantly yesterday [9][44]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is high, and attention should be paid to the risk of daily limit. The trend strength is 2. The price of the main contract of industrial silicon futures has been rising recently [44]. 3.3 Building Materials and Steel - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - level expectations, it will oscillate strongly. The trend strength is 0. The main contract of iron ore futures rose 1.73% yesterday [47]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by macro - level sentiment, they will oscillate strongly. The trend strengths of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 1. The prices of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures increased significantly yesterday [51][54]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Driven by the macro - level market, they will oscillate strongly. The trend strengths of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicide are both 1 [56][58]. 3.4 Others - **Carbonate Lithium**: The sentiment in the commodity market is positive, and it will oscillate strongly. The trend strength is 1. The prices of the main contracts of carbonate lithium futures have been rising recently [41][43].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly next week, with no significant change in demand. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and the annual line pressure still exists. It is recommended to go long at low levels [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote was 2,015 US dollars/ton, up 3.5 US dollars [3] - The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 35 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 101,465 lots, up 2,568 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 2,632 lots, down 1,396 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 60,059 tons, unchanged [3] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 62,335 tons, up 7,186 tons; the LME lead inventory was 264,925 tons, down 3,475 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,725 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,910 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [3] - The basis of the lead main contract was - 175 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 25.97 US dollars/ton, down 1.77 US dollars [3] - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,096 yuan, down 124 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,710 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 70.84%, down 7.03 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.32 million tons, down 0.29 million tons [3] - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 50 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the lead supply - demand balance of ILZSG was 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons [3] - The global lead ore output of ILZSG was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly import volume of lead ore was 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [3] Industrial Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate was 540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [3] - The monthly export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries was 10,135.71 yuan/ton, down 26.79 yuan [3] - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41.45 million, down 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 20,050 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources was 1,764.64 points, up 13.09 points; the monthly automobile output was 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles [3] - The monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [3] Industry News - US Republican Congressman Luna sent a letter to the Department of Justice accusing Powell of perjury twice and filing criminal charges [3] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that if inflation data is low, interest rates should be lowered, and the Fed should be comprehensively reviewed [3] - Trump administration officials are considering visiting the Fed during the review of its renovation project, and Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott is also discussing whether to attend [3] - The White House said Trump has no plan to fire Powell [3] - The US Congressional Budget Office said the "Big and Beautiful" bill may increase the US deficit by $3.4 trillion in ten years [3] - Fitch downgraded the industry outlook rating of 25% of US industries to "deteriorating" [3] View Summary - The supply of primary lead has decreased due to falling prices; the supply of recycled lead is tight due to the shortage of waste battery raw materials, and the resumption of production is slow [3] - The price of 1 lead has fallen; the price of waste batteries has stabilized, and the procurement price of some enterprises has returned to 10,000 yuan/ton [3] - The demand for lead - acid batteries has not shown the seasonal peak effect, and the downstream is still waiting and watching, with limited impact on lead prices [3] - Overseas inventory has increased; domestic inventory has increased slightly, and overall demand has slowed down [3] 提示关注 - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly next week, demand will remain unchanged, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [3]