Group 1: Long-term Capital Inflow - The Ministry of Finance issued a notification on July 11 to guide insurance funds for long-term stable investments, introducing a new 5-year assessment cycle for state-owned commercial insurance companies [1][8] - The weight of annual indicators in the assessment has decreased from 50% to 30%, while the combined weight of 3-year and 5-year indicators has increased to 70% [1][8] - The assessment will also include long-term evaluations of "net asset return rate" and "state-owned capital preservation and appreciation rate" [1][8] Group 2: Sci-Tech Innovation Board Reforms - On July 13, the Shanghai Stock Exchange implemented new rules to deepen reforms on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, allowing 32 unprofitable companies to enter the Sci-Tech Growth Layer [2][7] - A pre-review mechanism for IPOs has been introduced, allowing tech companies to apply for pre-review if early disclosure could harm their operations [2][7] - The new rules also establish a system for professional institutional investors, requiring them to have a significant investment history in listed tech companies [2][7] Group 3: Market Developments - The China Securities Association issued 28 measures to enhance self-regulation and promote high-quality development in the securities industry [17] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced a revision to the Growth Enterprise Market Composite Index, introducing mechanisms for monthly removal of risk-warning stocks and ESG negative screening [9] - The upcoming week will see the release of important economic data, including industrial value-added and fixed asset investment [19][21] Group 4: Company-Specific Developments - The National Medical Insurance Administration has initiated adjustments to the 2025 drug directory, allowing eligible entities to apply for inclusion in the commercial health insurance innovative drug directory [13] - China National Nuclear Corporation achieved a significant breakthrough with the successful production of its first barrel of uranium at the "National Uranium No. 1" demonstration project [14] Group 5: Investment Strategies - CITIC Securities suggests that the current market transition from a stock market to an incremental market presents opportunities in low-priced manufacturing sectors [23] - Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that the market has developed a "bull market atmosphere," with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through key levels [24] -招商证券 highlights sectors with high earnings growth potential, including TMT, midstream manufacturing, and consumer goods, while noting the need for policies to address structural industry issues [25]

Core Viewpoint - The recent "anti-involution" policies in China aim to construct a unified national market, improve product quality, and promote high-quality economic development, with a focus on addressing low-price and disorderly competition [1] Market Performance - Since the announcement of "anti-involution" policies on July 1, the Shenyin Wanguo Glass Fiber sector has seen a cumulative increase of 14.2%, while the Shenyin Wanguo Steel and Photovoltaic Equipment sectors have risen by 11.36% and 9.73% respectively [1] Economic Implications - Comprehensive governance of "involution" is expected to enhance overall productivity by correcting low-price competition and overcapacity, thereby preventing "bad money from driving out good" [7] - The policies are anticipated to accelerate industry consolidation and improve corporate profit expectations, particularly in sectors like steel and cement [7][8] - The construction of a unified market is expected to reduce cross-regional transaction costs and stimulate domestic demand [7] Capital Market Impact - The governance of "involution" is likely to lead to the accelerated exit of outdated capacities, enhancing the market share and pricing power of leading companies, thus stabilizing profitability [8] - The "anti-involution" trend is seen as a long-term process that will create systematic investment opportunities as industry concentration increases [10] Sectoral Opportunities - Industries such as photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, steel, and cement are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies [12] - In the photovoltaic supply chain, leading companies in silicon materials and glass are likely to benefit from price stabilization and capacity exit [12] - Traditional industries like steel and cement may see improved profitability through production limits and price stabilization [12][13] Investment Focus - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with real capacity exits and technological upgrades, avoiding speculative investments in companies without actual production cuts [13] - Key areas for investment include supply-demand optimization in steel and cement, technology barriers in photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors, and cost advantages in industries like pig farming [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significance of the "anti-involution" policy in promoting high-quality economic development and the construction of a unified national market in China, emphasizing the need to address low-price disorderly competition and improve product quality [2][10]. Market Performance - Since the announcement of the "anti-involution" policies on July 1, the Shenyin Wanguo Glass Fiber sector has seen a cumulative increase of 14.2%, while the Shenyin Wanguo Steel and Photovoltaic Equipment sectors have risen by 11.36% and 9.73%, respectively [2]. Economic and Market Implications - Comprehensive governance of "involution" is expected to enhance overall productivity by correcting low-price competition and overcapacity, thereby preventing "bad money from driving out good" [10]. - The policy is anticipated to accelerate industry consolidation and improve corporate profit expectations, particularly in sectors like steel and cement [10]. - The construction of a unified market is expected to reduce cross-regional transaction costs and stimulate domestic demand [10]. Industry Beneficiaries - Industries likely to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies include photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, steel, and cement [16][18]. - In the photovoltaic supply chain, leading companies in silicon materials and glass are expected to benefit from price stabilization and capacity clearance [16]. - In the new energy vehicle sector, leading manufacturers are likely to restore profitability through production control and price stabilization [16]. Market Dynamics and Sustainability - The sustainability of the "anti-involution" market rally is contingent on demand-side support, with short-term market reactions driven by policy-induced supply reductions [13][14]. - Traditional industries like steel and coal are expected to see basic support for their market performance due to clear capacity constraints [14]. - The performance of related sectors will exhibit differentiation, with traditional industries benefiting from actual capacity reductions, while technology-intensive sectors will need to focus on innovation and efficiency [14][17]. Long-term Opportunities - Key opportunities include supply-demand optimization in sectors like steel and cement, technology barriers in photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors, and cost advantages in industries like pig farming [17]. - Companies with the ability to set technical standards within their supply chains are expected to achieve excess returns, highlighting the importance of long-term structural changes in the industry [17].

子行业周度核心观点： 光伏&储能：新能源为代表的新兴制造业是本轮"反内卷"的核心聚焦领域，光伏则是核心领域中的标杆示范行业， 当前"依法依规"进行干预的价格端已初显成效，继续关注终端价格传导能力、产业链对涨价趋势一致预期的形成、 以及供给侧自上而下的潜在动作；此外，继续重申推荐受益于美国政策不确定性消除、国内新能源全面市场化+反内 卷驱动格局改善、Q2 业绩同环比展望乐观的大储龙头：阳光电源。 风电：大金重工披露半年报业绩预告，Q2 业绩超预期，看好公司中长期盈利提升，继续坚定重点推荐；海南省发布 "136 号文"细则征求意见稿，增量海风项目获明显政策倾斜；浙江海风、日月、东缆等成立母港装备公司，关注浙 江深远海示范项目推进带来的订单机会。 电网：1）思源电气发布 25 中报业绩快报，25Q2 实现营收 53 亿元，同比+50%；归母净利润 8.5 亿元，同比+62%，大 超预期，上调公司 25 年盈利预测至 27.5 亿元，yoy+34%，当前股价对应 PE 仅 20 倍，维持重点推荐；2）国网输变电 设备 3 批中标金额 211.9 亿元，同比+38%，再创单批次中标金额新高，前 3 批累计中标同比+25 ...

行业研究|可选消费|汽车与汽车零部件 证券研究报告 汽车与汽车零部件行业 周报、月报 2025 年 7 月 13 日 [Table_Title] 行业反内卷持续，领先车企表现亮眼 ——汽车行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 批发快于零售，乘用车稳定快速增长 乘用车：7 月 1-6 日，全国乘用车市场零售 23.8 万辆，同比去年 7 月同 期增长 1%，较上月同期下降 6%，今年以来累计零售 1,114 万辆，同比增 长 11%；7 月 1-6 日，全国乘用车厂商批发 23.3 万辆，同比去年 7 月同 期增长 39%，较上月同期增长 0%，今年以来累计批发 1,351.2 万辆，同 比增长 13%。近期汽车行业反内卷相关政策持续推进。7 月 6 日，市场监 管总局汇总整理 6 起产品质量领域"内卷式"竞争 新能源：7 月 1-6 日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售 13.5 万辆，同比去年 7 月同期增长 21%，较上月同期下降 11%，新能源市场零售渗透率 56.7%， 今年以来累计零售 560.4 万辆，同比增长 33%；7 月 1-6 日，全国乘用车 厂商新能源批发 12.5 万辆，同比去 ...

A股迎来两大重磅。 首先，长期资金入市方面，7月11日，财政部印发《关于引导保险资金长期稳健投资 进一步加 强国有商业保险公司长周期考核的通知》，自印发之日起施行。此次考核方式的变化主要体现 在三个方面：一是考核周期进一步拉长，新增5年周期指标考核；二是当年指标在考核中所占 权重降低、长周期指标所占权重更大，当年度指标权重从50%降至30%，而5年和3年指标所占 权重合计达到70%；三是在对"净资产收益率"长周期考核的同时，对"国有资本保值增值率"也 实施长周期考核。 其次，科创板"1+6"政策配套业务规则发布。7月13日，上交所正式发布实施进一步深化科创板 改革配套业务规则，根据配套业务规则，科创板存量32家未盈利企业将自《科创成长层指引》 发布实施之日起进入科创成长层，新注册的未盈利企业将自上市之日起进入；借鉴境外市场的 经验，在科创板试点引入IPO预先审阅机制，开展关键核心技术攻关或者符合其他特定情形的 科技型企业，因过早披露业务技术信息、上市计划可能对其生产经营造成重大不利影响，确有 必要的，可以申请预先审阅；针对第五套标准企业引入资深专业机构投资者制度，相关投资机 构投资的科技型企业中，需近5年有5 ...

证券研究报告 | 债券专题报告 2025 年 7 月 13 日 如何应对股债"跷跷板" ——信用债策略周报 一、股市走强对债市带来短期调整压力，信用利差大多被动收窄 上周受股市上涨影响，利率债有所调整，由于信用债调整幅度不及利率债，信用 利差大多被动收窄。其中短久期利差收窄幅度较大，1 年期各评级中短票利差全 周累计收窄 5-7bp，3 年期和 5 年期中高评级中短票利差收窄 1-2bp，7 年期各 评级中短票利差走阔 2bp 以内。分品种来看，1 年期二永债利差收窄幅度小于 其他信用品种，3 年期各评级二永债利差均走阔。1）城投债：上周城投债信用 利差大多收窄，短久期利差收窄幅度较大。1 年期各评级城投债利差全周累计收 窄 5bp；2）金融债：上周二永债信用利差表现分化，1 年期各评级二永债利差 均小幅收窄，但幅度小于其他信用品种，3 年期二永债利差均走阔，幅度为 2bp 以内。此外 7 年期券商次级债信用利差走阔约 3bp。 二、信用债二级成交情况：整体换手率有所回落，各品种 TKN 占比均下降 上周信用债整体换手率从上周的 2.36%降至 2.21%（降幅 0.15 个百分点），反 映市场交投活跃度有所 ...

招商证券：建议关注高景气TMT领域、具有全球竞争力的中游制造、内需领域和其他业绩预喜板块 智通财经7月13日电，招商证券发布研报称，近期A股市场持续创下年内新高，随着业绩期到来，沿着 中报超预期的方向进攻是胜率较高的选择。整体来看，A股中报业绩向好率高于去年同期，虽然整体盈 利改善幅度或有限，但结构性方向仍然值得布局，建议关注高景气TMT领域、具有全球竞争力的中游 制造、内需领域和其他业绩预喜板块。关于反内卷，后续需要关注分行业化解产业结构性矛盾的政策出 台。 ...

投资策略 | 定期报告 指数盘整蓄力，主题轮动依旧 策略周报 20250706 研究结论 上篇周报我们认为若关税延期，风险评价下降，风险偏好上升，攻势会再启，本周 美国将关税暂缓期延长至 8 月 1 日，各大指数上涨，上证指数站稳 3500 点，最高至 3555.22 点，我们认为市场已经完成对关税延期消息的边际利好交易。再看风险方 面，我们看到美国对巴西商品征收 50%关税超出此前预期，或因此导致巴西市场本 周下跌 3.59%，特朗普称下周一将发布有关俄罗斯的"重大声明"以及将对乌输送 更多武器的表态，或是俄罗斯市场本周下跌 5.7%的原因。我们认为市场目前对关税 的乐观预期占了上风，对关税不及预期的风险定价不足，风险评价或难继续下降。 指数短期预计进入盘整蓄力阶段： 市场近期风险评价下降，风险偏好上升是推动指数上涨的核心动力，本周创业板指 数、中证 1000 指数和全 a 指数上涨幅度均超过上证指数。乐观的市场情绪可能还有 一定惯性，但我们认为短期在没有新的边际利好预期下，指数可能会在尝试冲高受 阻后，进入盘整蓄力阶段。 信心牛趋势不变，蓄力后逐级再攀新高： 我们认为市场上涨的核心动力是来源于市场对国家治 ...

中美股汇共振走强，资本回报的十字路口 历史上看无论是A股还是美股，市场走势基本都会领先ROE的趋势。而近期中美股市和汇率同时走强的 背后，我们认为体现了各自市场的投资者对未来企业资本回报的乐观预期。只不过这一次的不同之处在 于：A股定价的是处于历史低位的ROE企稳见底，而美股定价的是本就在历史高位的ROE能够继续像过 去一样继续上行。2021年Q4以来，A股在"去金融化、去地产化"和制造业不断升级、再投资的大趋势 下，激烈的竞争导致资本回报不断下降；相反，美股在政府不断债务扩张去刺激需求但供给和杠杆率低 位的背景下，享受到了比较高的ROE。未来上述两个趋势都将发生转变：对于美股而言，无论是减税政 策鼓励制造业投资还是跨国企业实现资本回流，中短期会对美国经济基本面形成支撑，但实际上长期反 而构成了对高ROE的压制，不过市场短期定价将聚焦在前端的总量回升。而对于A股而言，反内卷、海 外制造业活动＞服务业以及债务停止收缩这三个因素有可能成为资本回报企稳回升的来源，尽管短期国 内需求较弱，但中期上升趋势反而明确。历史上看，美股和A股的PB估值差和ROE的差距存在8个月左 右的时滞，在ROE差距收敛的趋势下中美股票市场 ...