1. Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: November 25, 2025 [2] 2. Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation has eased as the US is promoting an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and has drafted a peace framework. The sanctions on Russian oil by the US are about to take effect, and the proportion of Russian oil with unknown export destinations is rising rapidly, potentially reshaping the trade flow. With the geopolitical risks in the market easing recently and significant inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, the report suggests a bearish approach to crude oil, recommending shorting on rebounds or reverse arbitrage [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: WTI's opening price was $58.80, closing at $57.98, with a high of $58.80, a low of $57.38, a decline of 1.73%, and a trading volume of 32.42 million lots. Brent's opening price was $62.40, closing at $61.89, with a high of $62.47, a low of $61.26, a decline of 1.45%, and a trading volume of 41.05 million lots. SC's opening price was 449.1 yuan/barrel, closing at 447.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 449.5 yuan/barrel, a low of 442.5 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.13%, and a trading volume of 10.81 million lots [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Adopt a bearish approach, short on rebounds or engage in reverse arbitrage [6]. 3.2 Industry News - After US sanctions on Russian oil companies, Russian Urals crude is being sold to Indian refiners at the lowest price in at least two years, at a discount of $7 per barrel to Brent spot prices (CIF). Most Indian refiners stopped ordering Russian crude after the sanctions, but some are now considering purchasing from non-sanctioned sellers due to the lower price, with only about one-fifth of the cargoes coming from non-blacklisted entities [7]. - The US is preparing a new round of actions related to Venezuela in the coming days [7]. - The US and Ukraine issued a joint statement stating that they have improved the Russia-Ukraine peace framework [7]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high-frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption, with data sources from EIA, Wind, Bloomberg, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [9][10][17][21]

Core Viewpoint - The current gold price has reached a one-and-a-half-week high, with significant upward momentum driven by a combination of factors including Federal Reserve dovish signals and rising geopolitical tensions [1][2] Group 1: Market Analysis - Spot gold prices have successfully broken through the $4100 mark and are currently trading around $4140, indicating strong bullish momentum [1] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has surged from 40% to 81%, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF, has seen increased holdings in recent days, suggesting institutional investors are actively building positions [1] Group 2: Technical Indicators - Short-term moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, with MACD showing a bullish crossover and RSI entering the overbought zone, indicating continued upward momentum [1] - The price is expected to test resistance levels around $4177-$4178 and potentially reach the psychological level of $4200, with further targets near the monthly high of $4244.96 [2] - Key support levels are identified at $4130-$4132, with additional support at $4110-$4100; a drop below these levels could shift the market sentiment to bearish [2]

周二亚洲盘，黄金继续维持在强势区间震荡，盘中一度摸高至近两周顶部。在市场普遍认为美联储 12 月可能再度降息的背景下，美元在高位表现乏力，资金再次流向黄金，带动金价连续第二日获得支撑。 而俄乌局势加剧、中东冲突反复，也让避险需求保持活跃，为金价提供了另一层推动力。 市场对美联储 12 月降息的预期已经高度反映，若通胀端出现反复，金价可能短线承压。 若后续美国经济数据继续疲弱，美元可能进一步走软，黄金则有望获得更多上行动能。 地缘局势尚未稳定，避险需求仍是推动金价的重要因素。 若接下来美联储官员继续倾向温和立场，金价的上行区间可能进一步打开。 当前黄金主要受到两大因素支撑：政策预期转向宽松、地缘风险维持在偏紧状态。短线回踩仍以技术整 理为主，只要 12 月降息的预期不被数据逆转，金价仍有机会向 4177–4200 区域靠拢。在地缘局势尚未 明显缓和之前，黄金的避险属性预计仍会维持在较高水平。 近期美联储官员密集发声，成为市场预期变化的主导因素。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯上周提到，在经济条 件允许的前提下，调整利率并不会破坏通胀回落进程；而理事沃勒也在公开讲话中强调，就业放缓的迹 象足以支持决策层在 12 月进一步下调 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold will continue to demonstrate its unique allocation value in the medium to long term, supported by factors such as continuous gold purchases by global central banks, monetary policy shifts, ongoing trade uncertainties, and recurring geopolitical risks. Short - term fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations only limit gold's upward movement but do not reverse the bullish trend [3][12] - The Fed's interest - rate cut path may be "stop - and - go" due to inflation stickiness and economic data fluctuations. Policy expectation revisions will be a key factor affecting the volatility rhythm of precious metals [3][12] - Global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine provide support and increase the volatility of precious metals [3][12] Summary by Related Content Fed Policy and Personnel Changes - In 2026, the Fed's Monetary Policy Committee will undergo a major personnel reshuffle. Fed Chair Powell's term ends on May 15, 2026, and Trump's administration is accelerating the selection of a new chair. Five final candidates have been short - listed, with a possible pre - Christmas 2025 announcement. This may lead to a "dual leadership" situation in the first half of 2026 [6] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic will retire in February 2026. His retirement and the selection of his successor will be an important window to observe the White House's influence on the Fed. The Fed's internal policy differences will become more complex, with the dovish camp strengthening and the hawkish camp remaining a counterbalance [7] - Any news of personnel changes may cause the market to re - evaluate the direction of monetary policy, directly affecting precious - metal prices. Investors should closely monitor these changes to predict the 2026 precious - metal market volatility [8] Gold Market Performance in 2025 Q3 - The global gold market showed strong performance in Q3 2025, with both supply and demand booming. Total demand (including over - the - counter transactions) reached 1,313 tons, a record quarterly high, a 3% year - on - year increase. The demand value soared 44% year - on - year to $146 billion. Supply also increased by 3% to 1,313 tons, with mine production rising seasonally to 977 tons and recycled gold supply remaining at a high of 344 tons [8] - The LBMA gold price hit 13 record highs in Q3, with a quarterly average price of $3,456.54 per ounce, a 40% year - on - year increase [8] Gold Market Demand Structure - Investment demand continued to dominate the market in Q3 2025. Global gold ETF holdings increased by 222 tons, and demand for gold bars and coins exceeded 300 tons for the fourth consecutive quarter, reaching 316 tons. Gold jewelry consumption decreased to 371 tons but the consumption value increased to $4.1 billion due to rising gold prices [9] - Global gold ETFs' significant increase in positions drove up the total holdings, with North American and Asian markets being the main sources of capital inflows. As of November 20, 2025, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares, increased by 19.13% compared to the end of 2024, indicating strong institutional demand for gold [9] Price Trends and Investment Suggestions - The COMEX gold futures contract may form strong support in the range of $3,900 - $4,000 per ounce. If it can effectively break through the $4,200 mark, the next target may be around $4,400 per ounce. The Shanghai gold futures contract may fluctuate in the range of 900 - 950 yuan per gram [4][13] - Silver is more elastic due to the resonance of supply - demand tightness and financial attributes. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position strategy when gold prices pull back, and focus on the Fed's interest - rate decision path, inflation data inflection points, and geopolitical situations [4][13]

Group 1: Energy and Metals - International oil prices rebounded overnight, with the Brent 01 contract up 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains [1]. - Precious metals rose overnight. With multiple Fed officials advocating a December rate cut, the implied probability of a rate cut in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels [2]. - Copper prices oscillated overnight. The domestic spot market shows a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly overnight. The inventory decreased, and the demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The price adjustment may continue, with support at around 21,100 yuan [4]. - Alumina supply is in an oversupply pattern, and it will mainly operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5]. - Cast aluminum alloy continues to follow the aluminum price, and the spread with AL may narrow [6]. - Zinc prices found support at the 60 - day moving average. The LME zinc 0 - 3 month spot premium remains high. The rebound height of Shanghai zinc is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Lead prices are looking for support at the annual line. The export of lead - acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the stainless - steel cost support continues to move down [9]. - Tin prices are mainly considered for short - selling, and call options can be used to hedge risks [10]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices oscillated sharply at high levels, and risk control should be prioritized [11]. - Polysilicon futures prices maintain an oscillating pattern due to weak supply and demand [12]. - Industrial silicon futures maintain an oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of silicone prices [13]. - Steel prices oscillated narrowly at night. Supply pressure is gradually easing, and demand is still weak. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range [14]. - Iron ore fundamentals are becoming more relaxed, and the price is expected to oscillate [15]. - Coke prices may oscillate weakly [16]. - Coking coal prices may oscillate weakly [17]. - Silicomanganese prices oscillated. The bottom support expectation has moved down [18]. - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19]. - The SCFIS European route index rose significantly. The 02 contract may maintain a discount, and the price of the 12 contract has limited up - and - down space [20]. - Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22]. Group 2: Chemicals - Urea supply is sufficient, and the market may return to a stalemate [23]. - Methanol futures rose sharply. You can try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices, but beware of weak reality [24]. - Pure benzene continues the idea of short - selling on rebounds, and options can be considered for allocation [25]. - Styrene supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the sustainability of support is questionable, and the rebound height is limited [26]. - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices have certain low - level support, but the supply pressure of polyethylene increases, and the demand of polypropylene and polyethylene is weak [27]. - PVC may follow the cost, and caustic soda runs weakly [28]. - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production, and PTA is mainly driven by cost [29]. - Ethylene glycol prices have a short - term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30]. - Short - fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials, and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by cost [31]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production and wait for the Sino - US trade agreement [35]. - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Palm oil supply is increasing while demand is weak [36]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are supported by supply shortages. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [37]. - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38]. - Corn futures oscillated at a high level. There are still differences in the new - season corn output. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39]. - Live hog futures had a large increase in the far - month contract. The price may have a second bottoming next year [40]. - Egg prices: Pay attention to the spot price performance and the convergence of the basis [41]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in a range. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - Sugar prices: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production expectations are good. Pay attention to production progress [43]. - Apple prices oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory reduction situation [44]. - Wood prices oscillated. Low inventory supports prices, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - Pulp prices fell slightly. Supply is loose, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 4: Financial Instruments - A - shares rose in a narrow range with shrinking volume. The short - term macro - liquidity uncertainty restricts the market. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - Treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but there may be phased adjustments [48].

昨日11月24日（星期一），黄金早盘开盘后开始下跌，在下跌至4040附近企稳开始慢涨，欧盘以及美盘延续上涨，到收盘前最高上涨至4140附近，日线收出 一根阳线。 一、基本面 1、降息预期主导行情：美联储官员集体转鸽，"鹰王"沃勒、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯等重量级人物释放降息信号，芝商所FedWatch工具显示12月降息25个基 点的概率从上周40%飙升至81%。本周美国零售销售、PPI等重磅数据将密集发布，市场预计数据偏软或进一步坐实降息预期，黄金作为零息资产的吸引力 大幅提升。 2、地缘风险推升避险需求：基辅凌晨拉响防空警报，俄军发射多种导弹致乌克兰全境高度戒备；俄拒绝欧洲版和平方案，美乌和平谈判进展渺茫，俄乌冲 突升级风险激活黄金避险属性。 3、今日关注：21:30，美国9月零售销售月率、美国9月PPI；23:00，美国11月谘商会消费者信心指数。 二、技术面 1、日线级别：上周市场经历震荡整理后，本周一以慢涨姿态突破上周高点并收阳，短期偏强格局明确。这一走势不仅打破了前期震荡区间的束缚，还形成 了"震荡后突破"的强势形态，暗示多头动能正在逐步积聚。 2、四小时级别：黄金价格呈现连阳上涨态势，整体运行结构与前 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the fuel oil industry. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the fuel oil market from multiple aspects, including fundamentals, basis, inventory, market trends, and positions. It concludes that the market is influenced by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand dynamics, and interest rate policies. The fuel oil prices are expected to move in the ranges of 2490 - 2540 for FU2601 and 3020 - 3070 for LU2601. The market is affected by both bullish and bearish factors, with supply being influenced by geopolitical risks and demand remaining neutral [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The report presents comprehensive analysis of the fuel oil market, including fundamentals, basis, inventory, market trends, and positions. It also provides expected price ranges for FU2601 and LU2601 [3]. 2. Multi - Air Concerns - Bullish factors: Russian fuel export restrictions and the cancellation of US - Russia talks along with sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - Bearish factors: Uncertainty in demand optimism and pressure on upstream crude oil [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: High - sulfur fuel oil spot demand is mostly weak, with sufficient supply in Singapore in November, potentially pressuring prices in late November and December. The basis shows that the spot is nearly at par with the futures. The inventory in Singapore increased by 257 barrels to 2344.9 barrels in the week of November 19. The price is below the 20 - day line which is trending down. High - sulfur main positions are short and decreasing, while low - sulfur main positions are long and increasing [3]. 4. Spread Data - The report provides data on the basis of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils in Singapore. The basis of high - sulfur fuel oil is 10 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 47 yuan/ton [3]. 5. Inventory Data - The inventory data shows the changes in Singapore's fuel oil inventory from September 10 to November 19. The inventory in the week of November 19 was 2344.9 barrels, an increase of 257 barrels [8]. Market Data - Futures market: The current prices of FU and LU main contracts are 2500 and 3055 respectively, down 29 and 62 from the previous values, with declines of 1.15% and 1.99%. The basis of FU remained unchanged, while that of LU decreased by 20, a decline of 29.52% [5]. - Spot market: The prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils in Zhoushan and Singapore have changed. For example, the price of high - sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan decreased by 11 to 445, a decline of 2.41% [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, with a driving force for price decline but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] Core Viewpoints - The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the Venezuela geopolitical risk are the key factors affecting the energy market this week. The energy market is generally under pressure due to factors such as geopolitical situation, supply - demand imbalance, and the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts [2][3][4] Summary by Categories Crude Oil - The Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation has made progress, and the Fed's wavering attitude towards a December interest rate cut has pressured crude oil and other risk assets. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, so the previous bearish strategy should be continued [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil is dragged down by the cost side. High - sulfur fuel oil has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with limited impact of geopolitical factors on Russian exports and high - level exports from the Middle East to Asia during the off - peak power generation season. The demand for feedstock in China is expected to gradually decline. Although the US sanctions on Russia on November 21 may cause short - term fluctuations, the medium - term supply surplus will suppress the market. Low - sulfur fuel oil was previously supported by unstable overseas refineries, but the partial restart of the Azur refinery on November 29 and the possible increase in supply from the Dangote RFGC device maintenance at the end of December will increase the subsequent pressure [3] Asphalt - The price in the northern market remains stable supported by some refineries switching to produce residual oil and the terminal project rush - demand, while the price in the southern market has been declining due to abundant resource supply and refinery shipment pressure, narrowing the north - south price difference. The weekly shipment volume has been below 400,000 tons since the middle of the month, at a low level in the same period in the past four years. In the short term, the main contract on the trading floor is supported at 3,000 yuan/ton, but the weak crude oil trend still suppresses the asphalt market sentiment, and with the expectation of supply increase, the asphalt is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly [4]

行业 能源化工周报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油、沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 | ⇒ 原油 . | | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish or bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, with the same implications as crude oil [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, similar to the above [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, also suggesting a slightly bullish or bearish trend with poor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term multi/empty trend is in a relatively balanced state, and it's better to wait and see [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The cyclical inflection point of oil prices caused by supply contraction has not been seen, and the rebound space of oil prices due to geopolitical factors is limited, with the market trending weakly in a volatile manner [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil is under multiple pressures, and its weak trend is expected to continue, while the low - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are strengthening, but the supply rebound risk from the RFCC unit maintenance of the Dangote refinery in Nigeria at the end of December needs attention [2] - The cost support for asphalt is continuously weakening, and the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are bearish [3] - The supply of liquefied petroleum gas has an incremental bearish suppression, and the supply - demand relationship has weakened marginally, causing the LPG trading floor to turn weak [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell further, with the SC01 contract dropping 1.67% during the day [2] - The geopolitical risk premium between Russia and Ukraine was suppressed, and the rebound space of oil prices due to geopolitical factors is limited, with the market trending weakly in a volatile manner [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Overnight crude oil price drop dragged down the fuel oil market [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil faces multiple pressures, including the possible decline of geopolitical factors, the steady increase in production in the Middle East, the end of the power generation peak season, and the possible weakening of refinery feed demand. Its weak trend is expected to continue [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are strengthening due to supply - side disturbances, strong diesel cracking, and increased demand. However, the supply rebound risk from the RFCC unit maintenance of the Dangote refinery in Nigeria at the end of December needs attention [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to - 11 US dollars per barrel, and the cost support continued to weaken [3] - Since November, the weekly shipment volume has decreased month - on - month and is at a low level in the same period of the past four years. The commercial inventory depletion has slowed down, and the year - on - year increase of social inventory has expanded. The medium - to - long - term fundamentals are bearish [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - This week, the commodity volume decreased but the arrival volume increased, with supply having an incremental bearish suppression [4] - The profitability improvement of butane dehydrogenation units boosted the downstream chemical enterprises' enthusiasm for starting work, and the demand on the combustion side improved due to the significant cooling in many places [4] - The supply - demand relationship weakened marginally, causing the LPG trading floor to turn weak [4]