地缘风险

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市场避险情绪迅速回落 SC原油主力合约开盘跌停
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-24 01:48
Core Viewpoint - The market's risk aversion has quickly receded, leading to a significant drop in oil prices, with domestic SC crude oil futures hitting the limit down at a 9% decline, currently priced at 518.6 yuan per barrel [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - A senior Iranian official confirmed that Iran agreed to a ceasefire proposal related to the conflict with Israel after a conversation with the Qatari Prime Minister, although the Iranian Foreign Minister stated that no formal agreement has been reached [1]. - The current round of Israel-Iran conflict shows signs of easing without causing disruptions to oil supply, which may lead to a bearish trend in oil prices [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The macroeconomic and supply-demand support for the recent oil price increase is weak, with geopolitical risks in the Middle East being the primary factor for the price premium [1]. - OPEC+ is expected to discuss potential production increases in early July, which may put pressure on oil prices in the near term [2]. - Factors such as low inventory levels, seasonal demand peaks, and declining shale oil supply may limit the speed of oil price declines, suggesting a shift from an upward trend to a wide-ranging fluctuation before a potential downward trend [1][2]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - The oil trading sector is facing mid-term layout opportunities, with geopolitical disturbances potentially having pulse-like impacts, necessitating risk control in trading [2]. - In scenarios where geopolitical factors have limited escalation, a supply-demand perspective may favor short-selling at higher price points [2].
花旗颠覆认知:宽松周期反而将利空黄金,地缘风险触顶将加速资金逃离?解读投行分歧深层逻辑,“聪明钱”精准狙击案例或将重现?美元和黄金均出现“反共识交易”机会!
news flash· 2025-06-24 01:04
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the divergence among investment banks regarding the relationship between interest rate cuts and gold prices, suggesting that a loose monetary policy may actually be bearish for gold, contrary to common belief [1] Group 1: Investment Bank Perspectives - Citigroup challenges the conventional wisdom that lower interest rates will boost gold prices, arguing that a period of monetary easing could lead to a decline in gold demand [1] - The article highlights that geopolitical risks may have peaked, potentially accelerating capital outflows from gold investments [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The concept of "smart money" is mentioned, indicating that sophisticated investors may be poised to exploit emerging opportunities in the market, particularly in the context of the current economic environment [1] - Both the US dollar and gold are experiencing "counter-consensus trading" opportunities, suggesting that market dynamics may not align with traditional expectations [1]
原油成品油早报-20250623
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 13:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - This week, oil prices rose significantly due to geopolitical tensions. After the US announced a successful air - strike on three Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday, Iran declared retaliation and the Iranian parliament approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The uncertainty of Iran's retaliatory actions, scale, and whether the US will deploy ground troops to destroy nuclear projects has increased geopolitical risks. Crude oil may face a sharp increase on Monday. Fundamentally, US commercial inventories decreased by over 10 million barrels, global oil inventories were basically flat, and diesel strengthened significantly due to supply disruptions. The oil futures spread continued to strengthen, approaching the 2022 level. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the absolute price of crude oil may soar to three - digit levels [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Data - From June 16 - 20, 2025, WTI prices fluctuated, with a value of 71.77 on June 16 and 73.84 on June 20; BRENT prices also fluctuated, from 73.23 on June 16 to 77.01 on June 20, with a change of - 1.84; DUBAI prices were around 70 - 71 dollars per barrel [3]. - SC prices had a change of - 4.30 from June 16 - 20, 2025; OMAN prices increased by 0.68 during the same period [3]. - Domestic gasoline prices increased by 30 to 8060, and the domestic gasoline - BRT spread increased by 142 to 3461 [3]. b. Daily News - An Iranian parliamentary committee member said the Iranian parliament concluded that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, but the final decision lies with the Supreme National Security Council [3]. - Russian President Putin agreed with OPEC's view that oil demand will remain high, and Rosneft's head said OPEC + may advance its original production - increase plan by about a year [4]. - Multiple sources said only the ground part of Iran's Isfahan nuclear facility was damaged in the US military operation [4]. - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu "appreciated" the US air - strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, stating Israel won't be involved in a war of attrition and will neither take unnecessary actions nor stop prematurely [4]. c. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of June 13, US crude exports increased by 107.5 barrels per day to 436.1 barrels per day, and domestic production increased by 0.3 barrels to 1343.1 barrels per day [4]. - US commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 11.473 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a 2.65% decline; strategic oil reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 230,000 barrels to 402.3 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [4][5]. - US crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 67.2 barrels per day to 550.4 barrels per day in the week of June 13 [5]. - In China, the main refinery operating rate rose, while the Shandong local refinery operating rate declined. Both gasoline and diesel production increased, with inventories piling up. Main refinery comprehensive profits rebounded, and local refinery comprehensive profits improved [5]. d. Weekly View - Geopolitical tensions caused a sharp rise in oil prices this week. With the uncertainty of Iran's retaliation and US actions, geopolitical risks soared. Crude oil may face a sharp increase on Monday. Fundamentally, US commercial inventories decreased by over 10 million barrels, and global oil inventories were basically flat. Diesel strengthened due to supply disruptions, and the oil futures spread continued to strengthen. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, crude oil prices may soar to three - digit levels [5].
贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250623
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 11:49
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is driven by factors such as the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, inflation concerns, and the uncertainty of monetary policy, but the intraday risk - aversion sentiment has declined [3]. - Copper prices are likely to oscillate around 78,000 yuan per ton in the short - term, with greater upward pressure and relatively weaker downward support due to the possible weakening of demand [14]. - Aluminum's fundamentals show sufficient supply and gradually weakening demand. Low inventory and continuous de - stocking are the core factors supporting aluminum prices in the short - term, and it may maintain high - level oscillations in the short - term and be bearish in the medium - to - long - term [30]. - Zinc's supply is gradually becoming looser, but the transmission from ore to ingot needs time. Demand remains stable, and short - term focus is on macro data and market sentiment [59]. - For nickel, potential audits in Indonesia may affect production. Nickel ore is expected to stabilize, nickel - iron prices are down, stainless - steel demand is weak in the off - season, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are low and stable [72]. - Tin prices are expected to remain stable in the next week, with support from low inventory and under - recovery of upstream mines, and pressure from weakening downstream demand [89]. - Lithium carbonate's mid - term fundamentals are bearish, with high inventory suppressing price increases, and it is expected to be in a weakly oscillating state recently [104]. - The silicon industry chain has a relatively loose supply and slightly improved demand. The southwest region's industrial silicon enterprises'复产 expectations are being realized, and downstream demand varies [114]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Factors**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East, inflation concerns, and monetary policy uncertainty drive funds into the gold market [3]. - **Price Data**: Various price charts of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, and their relationships with factors like the US dollar index and US Treasury real interest rates are presented [4][9] Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term oscillation around 78,000 yuan per ton, with upward pressure and weak downward support [14]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are provided [15]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of copper spot in different regions, as well as import profit and loss and other data are given [19][23] - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of SHFE and LME copper, and their changes are presented [27][28] Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Supply is close to the industry ceiling, demand is gradually weakening, low inventory and continuous de - stocking support prices in the short - term, and it is bearish in the medium - to - long - term [30]. - **Alumina**: Guinea's Axis mine may have short - term production suspension, and the market is in a state of inventory accumulation and price oscillation [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Cost is strongly supported, supply is excessive, demand growth may slow down, and it may oscillate strongly in the short - term with a BACK structure [32]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of aluminum and alumina futures and spot are provided [34][52] Zinc - **Fundamentals**: Supply is gradually loosening, but the transmission to the ingot end is not complete. Demand is stable, and short - term focus is on macro data and inventory [59]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of zinc futures and spot are provided [60][68] Nickel - **Industry Impact**: Indonesian audits may affect nickel intermediate products and stainless - steel production. Nickel ore is stable, nickel - iron prices are down, stainless - steel demand is weak, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are low and stable [72]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of nickel and stainless - steel futures and related raw materials are provided [73][79] Tin - **Price Outlook**: Prices are expected to remain stable, with support from inventory and mine supply, and pressure from weakening demand [89]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of tin futures and spot are provided [90][98] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: Mid - term fundamentals are bearish, with high inventory suppressing price increases, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating recently [104]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of lithium carbonate futures and spot are provided [105][111] Silicon Industry Chain - **Industry Conditions**: Supply is relatively loose, and demand is slightly improved. The southwest region's industrial silicon enterprises'复产 expectations are being realized, and downstream demand varies [114]. - **Price and Production Data**: The latest prices of industrial silicon spot and futures, and production - related data such as output and capacity utilization rate are provided [117][138]
【期货热点追踪】SC原油高开低走,是高点已现还是为后市的上涨蓄力?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-06-23 11:23
自6月13日以色列袭击伊朗以来,中东地缘因素推动油价上涨已经持续10余天,随着美国周末正式介入 中东战场,SC原油主力合约周一大幅高开,日内一度触及588.6元/桶的逾4个月高点,不过随着大部 分"战争溢价"消化,价格单边大幅回落;午盘小幅低开,随后震荡走高,最终收涨0.3%,报收574.5元/ 桶。 分析人士Priyanka Sachdeva说,尽管油价最初飙升,但在亚洲早盘交易中似乎已经企稳,这表明大部 分"战争溢价"已被消化。要想油价继续走高,供应必须受到显著损害。考虑到欧佩克+拥有大量闲置产 能,单凭市场情绪是不足以推动油价进一步走高的。不过,石油市场仍存在很多不确定性。 若伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡,油价将飙升至120美元! 美国总统特朗普在社交媒体最新发文:"我们已成功对伊朗的三个核设施发动攻击,包括福尔多、纳坦 兹和伊斯法罕。所有战机目前已撤离伊朗领空。主目标福尔多核设施遭到满载炸弹的轰炸。"据新闻媒 体报道,在美国对伊朗核设施发动袭击的前几天,伊朗曾向特朗普政府发出信息,警告称如果遭到攻 击,将激活潜伏在美国境内的"沉睡特工"实施"恐怖活动"。 伊朗议会国家安全委员会委员库萨里表示,伊朗议会已得出结 ...
玻璃:需求仍偏弱,预防宏观事件扰动,纯碱:基本面偏空,轻仓参与
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 09:31
玻璃:需求仍偏弱,预防宏观事件扰动 纯碱:基本面偏空,轻仓参与 正信期货玻璃纯碱周报 20240623 首席研究员:徐婧 投资咨询编号:Z0012091 Email: xujing@zxqh.net Tel:027-68851659 首席研究员:赵婷 投资咨询编号: Z0016344 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel: 027-68851659 1、纯碱内容要点 | 因素 | 因素综述 | 驱动方向 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 上周纯碱产量75.37万吨(+1.36,+1.80%),其中轻碱产量33.84万吨(+0.41),重碱产量41.53万吨(+0.95)。纯碱开 | 中性 | | | 工率86.46%(+1.56%),其中氨碱86.57%(+6.53%),联产80.59%(-0.47%)。 | | | 需求 | 上周纯碱企业出货量为71.43万吨,环比上周+4.92%;纯碱整体产销率为94.65%,环比上周+2.61%。上周纯碱需求略有转 | 中性 | | | 弱,下游企业以刚需拿货为主。下周浮法预期略有增量,光伏玻璃有减量预期。5月纯碱进口0.15万吨, ...
海外经济政策跟踪:地缘风险上升,美联储继续观望
Haitong Securities International· 2025-06-23 05:12
Group 1: Market Performance - Global stock markets mostly declined, with the S&P 500 down 0.15% and the Hang Seng Index down 1.52%[3] - Commodity prices generally increased, with IPE Brent crude futures rising by 2.85% and the S&P-Goldman Commodity Index up 2.30%[3] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.63%, closing at 98.76, while the yuan depreciated slightly against the dollar at 7.18[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. industrial output fell by 0.13% year-on-year in May, and the industrial capacity utilization rate decreased to 77.43%[9] - The Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index rose significantly to 35.3% from 11.6% in the previous month[27] - U.S. retail and food service sales decreased by 3.29% year-on-year in May, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending[17] Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - U.S. inflation expectations declined, with the 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations at 5.1% and 4.1%, respectively[22] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, indicating a cautious approach amid rising stagflation expectations[31] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lower interest rates again this year, with current inflation at 1.9% in May, close to the 2% target[32] Group 4: Risks and Uncertainties - Geopolitical risks, particularly related to tariffs and Middle Eastern tensions, are contributing to market volatility and inflation uncertainty[35] - The potential for stagflation is increasing, with the Fed's economic growth forecasts being downgraded and unemployment rate predictions rising[31]
宝城期货原油早报-20250623
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 02:19
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-06-23 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2508 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 强势运行 | 美伊冲突升级,原油强势运行 | 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 原油(SC) 日内观点:上涨 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:强势运行 核心逻辑:上周末,美国对伊朗核设施展开轰炸,揭开美伊战争序幕。伊朗誓言袭击美国在中东的 军事基地,地缘风险再度增强,导致能化商品溢价提升。同时美军三航母舰队开往中东,英法德等 国也派遣军力援助以色列,冲突存在进一步扩大的风险。近日伊朗议会得出结论,认为应关闭霍尔 木兹海峡,但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委员会手中。除了原油运输受到潜在干扰外,地缘风 险增强所带来的溢价空间也在扩大。本周一早间国际油价大幅高开再创 ...
宝城期货甲醇早报-20250623
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 02:05
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-06-23 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 强势运行 | 地缘因素增强,甲醇强势运行 | 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇(MA) 日内观点:上涨 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:强势运行 核心逻辑:上周末,美国对伊朗核设施展开轰炸,揭开美伊战争序幕。伊朗誓言袭击美国在中东的 军事基地,地缘风险再度增强,导致能化商品溢价提升。作为全球重要的甲醇生产与出口国,伊朗 是我国重要的甲醇进口来源国。目前 ...
对二甲苯:地缘风险加剧,趋势走强,月差正套,PTA:地缘风险加剧,单边走势偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 01:55
请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025年06月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯:地缘风险加剧,趋势走强,月差正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA:地缘风险加剧,单边走势偏强 | 2 | | MEG:地缘风险加剧,短期偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶:震荡偏强 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:地缘问题反复,偏强运行 | 6 | | 沥青:地缘局势升级,继续高位运行 | 8 | | LLDPE:反弹难持续,中期震荡市 | 10 | | PP:现货震荡,成交一般 | 12 | | 烧碱:高利润背景下估值承压,但短期低位不宜追空 | 13 | | 纸浆:震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃:原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇:偏强运行 | 18 | | 尿素:短期震荡运行,日内波动关注现货成交 | 20 | | 苯乙烯:短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱:现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG:地缘冲突加剧供应担忧,盘面风险攀升 | 25 | | PVC:短期震荡,趋势仍有压力 | 28 | | 燃料油:夜盘窄幅调整,短期易涨难跌 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油:相对 ...