1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to its lowest since 2014, the dollar index hit a four - year low, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East increased. Domestically, A - shares entered a phase of volume contraction and differentiation, but the medium - term trend remained positive. Industrial enterprise profits in December 2025 showed year - on - year growth, and the full - year profit in 2025 had its first increase in four years [2][3]. - Precious metals: Gold prices hit new highs, and the gold - silver ratio was expected to recover from a 50 - year low [4]. - Copper: The decline in the US consumer confidence index led to a fall in copper prices. It was expected to maintain a high - level range - bound oscillation in the short term [5][6]. - Aluminum: The sharp decline in the US dollar index boosted aluminum prices, which were expected to oscillate at a high level [7]. - Alumina: The supply pressure decreased slightly, and alumina prices were expected to stabilize [8][9]. - Cast aluminum: The supply - demand stalemate continued, and cast aluminum prices were expected to oscillate at a high level [10]. - Zinc: Supported by the weakening dollar and cost factors, zinc prices were expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [11]. - Lead: Refinery production cuts provided some support, and lead prices were expected to remain weak with possible fluctuations around the integer level [12][13]. - Tin: Regulatory measures were offset by the sharp fall of the dollar, and tin prices were expected to oscillate at a high level, but there was a risk of correction [14]. - Steel products (Screw and coil): Before the Spring Festival, demand was limited, and steel prices were expected to oscillate weakly [15]. - Iron ore: Supply pressure persisted, and iron ore prices were expected to oscillate downward [16]. - Coking coal and coke: Spot trading was sluggish, and futures prices were expected to oscillate weakly [18]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal: Attention should be paid to the progress in South American production areas, and soybean meal prices were expected to continue to oscillate [19][20]. - Palm oil: It was expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to geopolitical factors, policy support, and supply - demand changes [21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interest, and price units of various metal futures contracts such as SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc. [22] 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, it shows the price changes of SHFE copper and LME copper, as well as data on inventory, spot quotes, and spreads. Similar data are presented for nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel products, iron ore, coking coal, coke, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and soybean meal [23][25][27][29]

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原油成品油早报 金十数据1月28日讯，周二，美、布两油期货结算价上涨3%，分别报62.39和67.57美元/盎司。据分析师和交易商估 计，因一场严重冬季风暴横扫全美、令能源基础设施和电网承压，美国石油生产商在上周末损失的产量最高达200万桶/ 日，约占全国产量的 15%。经纪公司PVM的石油分析师Tamas Varga称："美国的寒冷天气可能会导致石油库存在未来 几周内大幅下降，尤其是如果这种天气持续下去的话。"船舶跟踪服务公司Vortexa称，在寒冷天气的影响下，美国墨西 哥湾沿岸港口的原油和液化天然气出口量周日降至零。该公司分析主管称，随着港口重新开放，周一出口反弹，流量高 于季节性标准。此外，两位知情消息人士早前表示，哈萨克斯坦最大的腾吉兹油田(Tengiz)可能会在2月7日之前恢复不 到一半的正常产量，该油田正在从火灾和停电事故中缓慢恢复。不过，运营哈萨克斯坦主要出口管道的CPC公司表示， 在其位于俄罗斯黑海沿岸的码头的三个系泊点之一完成维护后，该码头的装载能力已恢复到满负荷状态。 ·美国至1月23日当周API原油库存 -24.7万桶，预期145万桶，前值304.3万桶。 ·美国至1月23日当周API ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - The crude oil futures are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong [1][5]. - Geopolitical risks are rising, which has led to a stable and rising trend in domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on Tuesday night, and it is predicted that domestic crude oil futures will maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Wednesday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within one week): The trend of crude oil 2603 is oscillatory [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The trend of crude oil 2603 is oscillatory [1]. - Intraday: The trend of crude oil 2603 is strong, and the reference view is a strong run [1][5]. Core Logic - Recently, US President Trump has frequently released geopolitical risk signals, and Greenland and Canada may become the next targets for the US to seize and attack [5]. - As the US military aircraft carrier has reached the Middle East battlefield in the short term and Iran has issued tough statements, a new round of military conflict between the US and Iran may break out, threatening the crude oil transportation in the Middle East, and geopolitical risks have increased again [5]. - The geopolitical risk sentiment has overshadowed the weak supply - demand fundamentals of the oil market, boosting the stable and rising trend of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on Tuesday night [5].

Group 1 - The core reason for the volatility in gold and silver prices is the increase in safe-haven demand due to geopolitical risks, uncertainty in Federal Reserve policies, and profit-taking by leveraged funds [1] - Central banks have been increasing their gold holdings for 13 consecutive months, indicating a stable long-term allocation value [1] Group 2 - Market opinions are divided, with some believing that the mid-term logic for precious metals remains unchanged and that the recent pullback presents a buying opportunity, while others warn of potential short-term declines in silver prices [2] - Major institutions like Bridgewater and BlackRock are adjusting their positions in precious metals, primarily for defensive allocation, and there are signs of accelerated hedging in COMEX gold futures [3] - The options market shows that large funds often use a strategy of "spot accumulation + futures shorting" to lock in profits, which is a professional arbitrage method [3] Group 3 - Retail investors may overlook the price tailing during contract rollovers, which can lead to increased volatility and liquidity issues, making them susceptible to being washed out [4] - Experts advise against chasing high prices or panicking, emphasizing the importance of a long-term perspective and cautious allocation in gold and silver [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market is in a tug - of - war between geopolitical risk premiums and a supply - surplus fundamental situation, and the overall commodity market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical events, supply and demand changes, and policy expectations, showing different trends in different sectors [2] Summary by Relevant Categories Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US sanctions against Iran and the deployment of aircraft carriers in the Middle East have raised market concerns, but the supply - demand surplus remains a long - term factor suppressing oil prices. OPEC + plans to keep March production stable in February, and attention should be paid to whether the Iran conflict will actually affect oil supply. Brent crude has rebounded to $65/barrel and WTI to $61/barrel [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver broke through the $5000/ounce and $100/ounce integer thresholds respectively, but there is a risk of capital turning. It is advisable to wait for the volatility to decline before participating, and pay attention to the Fed meeting, Middle East situation, and the risk of the US government shutting down [3] - **Base Metals (Copper, Aluminum, etc.)**: The copper price is affected by precious metal trading sentiment and the weakening of the US dollar, and is expected to oscillate at high levels and tend to adjust; the aluminum price is affected by geopolitical events, and the high - level oscillation range needs to determine the direction; the zinc price is supported by cost but restricted by consumption, and is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton; the lead price is also affected by cost and consumption, and is expected to oscillate at a low level between 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton [4][5][8] - **Lithium and Related Products**: The price of lithium carbonate has fallen after a high opening, and the inventory reduction speed has slowed down. The futures price is in high - level oscillation, with high short - term uncertainty; the price of polycrystalline silicon is still weak, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate [12][13] - **Industrial Silicon**: Driven by production reduction expectations, the price has risen to 9000 yuan/ton, but the increase has retracted. The downstream support is weak, and it is expected to enter a destocking pattern in February, but the destocking range is limited [14] - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices oscillate, with the rebar's apparent demand declining and inventory accumulating, while the hot - rolled coil's demand and production both slightly decline, and the inventory continues to decrease. The iron ore's supply is relatively loose, but considering the replenishment demand and positive market sentiment, the price is expected to continue to oscillate [15][16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are oscillating strongly. The first - round price increase of coke has been shelved, and the supply of carbon elements is abundant. The downstream is in the off - season, and the prices are expected to oscillate within a range [17][18] - **Other Metals (Manganese, Silicon, etc.)**: The prices of manganese ore and silicon - manganese are affected by supply - demand and policy expectations. The silicon - iron price is affected by cost and demand, and the supply and demand are relatively stable [19][20] - **Shipping and Fuel Oil**: The SCFIS (European route) index has declined, and the spot freight rate is in a downward channel. The fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors in the short term and is expected to follow the upward trend of crude oil in the medium term [21][22] - **Other Chemicals (Asphalt, Urea, etc.)**: The asphalt is supported by cost but has weak terminal demand, and is expected to oscillate strongly; the urea price oscillates within a range; the methanol price is expected to be strong in the short term and gradually destock in the long term; the pure benzene price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term and gradually destock in the long term [23][24][25] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The short - term market has digested the expectation of a South American soybean harvest. The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is slow, and attention should be paid to the subsequent harvest situation. The import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal may impact the domestic soybean meal price. The soybean oil and palm oil are affected by policies and market sentiment [36][37] - **Rapeseed and Related Products**: The uncertainty of the rapeseed market lies in the import end. The import of Australian rapeseed and the US - Canada trade friction need attention. The price of rapeseed products is expected to oscillate strongly, with rapeseed oil slightly stronger than rapeseed meal [38] - **Other Agricultural Products (Corn, Cotton, etc.)**: The corn price is relatively strong due to reduced available grain sources and pre - holiday replenishment demand; the cotton price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see; the sugar price is under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to the production situation; the apple price oscillates, and attention should be paid to the future demand [40][43][44] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has adjusted, and the index is transitioning from a rapid upward trend to a strong - oscillation pattern. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, regulatory attitudes, and the Fed's interest - rate decision [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures show a differentiated performance, with the 30 - year bond continuing to rise and the rest slightly adjusting. The curve flattens, and attention should be paid to the opportunities of steepening and flattening the spreads [49]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news indicates that the tin futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract dropping significantly by 2.73% to 430,500.00 CNY per ton as of January 27 [1] Group 2 - Alphamin Resources, a tin mining company based in Mauritius, announced that its Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to reach a total output of 18,576 tons of tin concentrate by 2025 [2] - As of January 26, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported tin registered warrants at 6,835 tons, with cancellations of 230 tons, resulting in a total inventory of 7,065 tons, which decreased by 130 tons [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded tin warehouse receipts at 8,624 tons on January 26, an increase of 42 tons from the previous trading day; however, there was a cumulative decrease of 697 tons over the past week, representing a decline of 7.48% [2] - Over the past month, the Shanghai tin futures warehouse receipts have increased by 655 tons, reflecting a growth of 8.22% [2] Group 3 - According to Wengang Futures, short-term price movements in the tin futures market are influenced by capital speculation, with expectations of a strong performance in the tin price in the near term [5] - The suggested operational range for domestic main contracts is between 430,000 to 470,000 CNY per ton, while the overseas reference range for LME tin is between 52,000 to 58,000 USD per ton [5] - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that market attention is focused on geopolitical risks and the rising trend of silver, while domestic tin concentrate processing fees have been slightly adjusted upwards, indicating a gradual easing of supply expectations [5]

相关机构表示，格陵兰岛局势混乱，加之特朗普抨击美联储威胁央行独立性、美欧关系恶化以及地缘局 势动荡，投资者资金流出美元资产，致使美元指数大幅走弱；对此，特朗普表示如果欧洲抛售美国资 产，将招致美国的重大报复。除短期因素外，全球各国央行（尤其是新兴市场央行）正积极减少对美国 资产的敞口、转为增持黄金，特朗普在达沃斯关于格陵兰岛的言论进一步加速了该趋势，波兰央行批准 购买150吨黄金的计划，其黄金持有量上限从550吨提高到700吨。全球地缘风险、逆全球化趋势延续， 贵金属的行情或仍有支撑。 每日经济新闻 风险提示：数据来源：wind，矿业ETF2025年涨幅106.11%，在有色板块10只ETF中排名第一。提及个 股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参考，不代表其未来表 现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成投资建议或承诺。提 及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品要素、风险等级及收 益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 27 日 LLDPE：美金递盘暂少，上游报价挺涨 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6935 | 1.02% | 683322 | -4043 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -155 | | -165 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -27 | | -22 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华 北 | 6780 | | 6700 | | | | 东 华 | 6850 | | 6750 | | | | 华 南 | 6930 | | 6850 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货走强，上游前期库存转移，企业报价企稳反弹，中游开单有部分改善。标品排产昨日维持，成交有 所改善，基差走弱。下游制品利润压缩，有所抵触高价。外盘报价上涨且 LL 货源偏少，远期进口 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: January 27, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The spot market of container shipping to Europe shows signs of peaking and falling. The freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports has declined for two consecutive weeks, and the SCFIS index has also dropped. Multiple shipping companies have lowered their quotes for late January. However, the sudden change in the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea may boost far - month contracts [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The spot market shows signs of peaking and falling. The freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports dropped 4.8% to $1595/TEU last weekend, and the SCFIS index dropped 4.9% to 1859.31 points on Monday. Many shipping companies have lowered their quotes for late January [8]. - **Red Sea Situation**: The resumption of shipping in the Red Sea has changed suddenly. Maersk redirected some ships via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal. Tensions in the Red Sea region may boost far - month contracts [8]. 2. Industry News - **Market Conditions**: From January 19 to 23, the container shipping market from China was weak. The freight rates of long - haul routes declined, dragging down the comprehensive index. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped 7.4% to 1457.86 points on January 23 [9]. - **Regional Situations**: In the European route, geopolitical risks have increased, and the European economy is not optimistic. In the Mediterranean route, the market freight rate continued to fall. In the North American route, the US economy faces challenges, and the market freight rate has adjusted [9][10]. - **Other News**: The US announced the second - stage plan for the Gaza cease - fire. There are differences between Netanyahu and Trump on this plan. Tensions between the Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia in Yemen have escalated [10]. 3. Data Overview 1. Container Shipping Spot Prices - The SCFIS for the European route dropped 4.9% from January 19 to January 26, and the SCFIS for the US West route dropped 0.8% [12]. 2. Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market - The trading data of container shipping futures to Europe on January 26 is provided, including the opening price, closing price, settlement price, etc. of different contracts [6].