Group 1 - The core issue revolves around President Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Japan, South Korea, and 12 other countries, with a specific mention of a potential 25% tariff aimed at reducing the trade deficit [1][3] - Japan's government is actively discussing countermeasures in response to the U.S. tariff threats, indicating the seriousness of the situation and the potential severe impact on Japan's economy if the tariffs are implemented [1][5] - The expansion of tariffs to cover "all goods" represents a significant systemic pressure test for Japan's economic structure, with potential far-reaching impacts across various industries, particularly in the automotive sector [5][6] Group 2 - Prime Minister Kishida's recent statements reflect a strong stance against perceived U.S. aggression, emphasizing the importance of national interests and the need for Japan to assert itself [3][6] - The relationship between Japan and China appears to be improving, with recent diplomatic engagements suggesting a desire for enhanced cooperation and communication, which may provide Japan with alternative economic partnerships amid U.S. tariff pressures [8]

白银却呈现出相对坚挺的走势，盘初一度触及每盎司38.36美元的高点。这可能反映了市场对白银在工 业和金融双重属性下的乐观预期，尤其是在新能源、半导体和制造业复苏背景下对白银需求的重新评 估。白银价格在某些阶段会受益于黄金的带动，但当黄金自身动力不足时，白银能逆势走强，往往意味 着资金正在寻找更高波动率、更具杠杆效应的配置标的。 尽管全球贸易摩擦再起、经济数据即将出炉，市场本该进入避险模式，但本周二现货黄金却自三周高位 小幅回落，未能延续前一日的强势走势。与此同时，白银却在盘中触及2011年以来的最高点，维持强劲 表现。这种"金弱银强"的分化行情在贵金属市场并不常见，尤其是在美元大幅走强、宏观不确定性上升 的背景下，更加值得警惕。 DLSM从价格表现来看，现货金报3344.46美元/盎司，回落0.1%，美期金同样小幅收低，显示市场在短 期内对黄金的追涨意愿并不强烈。美元则是关键影响变量之一。近期美元指数创下近三周新高，受到特 朗普关税政策不断加码及美联储短期内不急于降息的支撑。强势美元压制以美元计价的黄金价格，令其 吸引力下降，部分短期资金转而观望或流向更具弹性的资产。 钯金与铂金的同步回调则进一步表明，整体贵 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions among major global economies are heightening market caution, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like silver and gold, with silver prices showing strong short-term performance ahead of the upcoming U.S. CPI data release [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver prices recovered to above $38.30, driven by trade tensions and anticipation of U.S. inflation data [1] - The market is closely watching the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with expectations of an increase in overall inflation rate from 2.4% to 2.7% and core inflation from 2.8% to 3.0% [2] - The release of inflation data will directly impact market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, influencing silver prices [2] Group 2: Price Movements - Spot silver reached a high of $39.10, the highest level since September 2011, before stabilizing around $38.28 [2] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to concerns over supply and rapid growth in industrial demand [2] - Gold's sustained increase over the past 18 months has led investors to seek more cost-effective alternatives, boosting silver's appeal [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Silver's recent price action shows a bearish reversal pattern, with the daily RSI remaining high and potential resistance at $39 [3] - Key support levels for silver are identified at $38.00 and $37.65, while resistance levels are at $38.60 and $39.00 [3]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 15 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美国总统推出更多关税措施特别是对欧盟和加拿大对等关税税率定于 30%， 关税武器化程度加剧提振黄金的避险需求，但美元指数走强对贵金属有抑制作用， 伦敦黄金小幅上行至 3370 美元/盎司附近；7 月中旬以来投机资金再次拉升白银 至 39 美元/盎司上方，目前伦敦金银比值已经回落到 86，年内白银涨幅 35%远超 黄金的 28%，但上海白银相对滞涨。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局重组进入 乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提振；目前看黄金波 ...

新华财经法兰克福7月15日电（记者马悦然）随着欧洲政经局势的微妙变化与美国市场情绪的波动传 导，年内一度强势领涨的德国法兰克福交易所DAX指数正面临阶段性下行压力。多位分析人士指出， 尽管部分数据凸显德国经济复苏信心增强，但企业盈利承压、市场估值偏高、全球贸易摩擦加剧等多重 风险叠加，可能令DAX指数未来数月出现一定调整空间。 年内强势上涨 DAX估值隐现压力 数据显示，德国法兰克福DAX指数自2025年初以来最高上涨近23%，一度突破24639点，也在年内首次 跑赢美股主要指数，全球表现亮眼。然而，近期市场风向开始转变。自美国总统特朗普宣布自8月1日起 对欧盟产品征收30%关税以来，市场风险进一步上升。 苏黎世资产管理公司分析师比约恩·海森贝格（Bjrn Heissenberger）表示，在高涨幅之后，估值修复压力 显现。当前DAX指数的市盈率为15.6，虽仍低于标普500的20.5，但从成分股利润率、总股本回报率和 净资产收益率看，价格走势已大幅超前于基本面表现。 欧洲市场对美国政策变动极为敏感，特别是在美股估值高企、回调风险显现之际，情绪外溢可能触发连 锁反应。 咨询公司Alix Partners预计， ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Trump to impose tariffs on Japanese products has raised significant concerns in the international community, particularly regarding the implications for Japan's economy and its trade negotiations with the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Negotiations - Trump announced a tariff increase of 25%-40% on products from Japan and 13 other countries starting August 1, following the U.S. government's earlier announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" [1] - Japan initially approached the negotiations with optimism, believing its substantial investments in the U.S. would lead to favorable treatment [1][3] - Despite Japan's insistence on linking "reciprocal tariffs" with discussions on auto and steel tariffs, the U.S. rejected these demands and pressured Japan to increase imports of U.S. products [3][4] Group 2: Economic Impact on Japan - The Japanese automotive industry, a crucial sector, is particularly vulnerable, with exports to the U.S. projected to reach approximately 1.37 million vehicles in 2024, accounting for over one-third of Japan's total exports to the U.S. [4] - The imposition of a 25% tariff could severely impact Japanese automakers and their supply chains, prompting a potential shift in manufacturing to the U.S. [4] Group 3: Political Context and Responses - The timing of the tariff announcement coincides with Japan's upcoming Senate elections, where Prime Minister Kishida's approval ratings have fluctuated, creating additional political pressure [4] - Kishida has publicly stated Japan's commitment to protecting its national interests and has refused to compromise on key issues, particularly agriculture [5] Group 4: China-Japan Relations - Amidst the U.S. tariff threats, China announced a conditional resumption of imports of certain Japanese seafood products, which could provide Japan with some economic relief [5][7] - The resumption of imports is contingent upon Japan's compliance with international monitoring of its nuclear wastewater discharge, indicating a complex interplay of trade and environmental concerns [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The ongoing trade friction between the U.S. and Japan is unlikely to resolve quickly, and Japan may gain leverage in negotiations due to support from the Chinese market [8] - The potential for trilateral cooperation among China, Japan, and South Korea could enhance their collective bargaining power against U.S. pressures [8][10] - The U.S. strategy of imposing tariffs on allies may backfire, leading to increased resistance and closer ties among affected countries, which could diminish U.S. influence in global economic and political arenas [10]

Export Performance - In June, China's export value reached $325.18 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.8%, up from 4.8% in the previous month[5] - Cumulative export growth for the first half of the year was 5.9%, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points compared to 2024[5] - The trade surplus in June was $114.77 billion, an increase from $103.2 billion in the previous month[5] Import Trends - Imports in June totaled $210.4 billion, with a growth rate of 1.1%, recovering from a decline of 3.4% in May[5] - Cumulative import growth for the first half of the year was -3.9%, down by 5 percentage points compared to the previous year[5] - Key imports showing significant growth included natural and synthetic rubber (27.5%), refined oil (13.9%), and integrated circuits (11.4%) while some prices like coal and crude oil saw declines of -25.2% and -20.2% respectively[7] Trade Dynamics - Exports to the U.S. continued to decline sharply, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%, improving from a previous decline of 34.5%[13] - Exports to ASEAN countries increased to 16.8%, with notable growth rates for Thailand (27.9%) and Vietnam (23.8%) compared to the previous month[14] - The overall global manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in June, indicating a return to expansion, which supports China's export performance[6] Risks and Future Outlook - Trade friction risks are increasing, with potential tariff hikes from the U.S. and other economies, which may pressure exports in the second half of the year[22] - Despite challenges, long-term support for exports includes increased competitiveness of Chinese products and a diversified trade structure, with a notable rise in exports to ASEAN and EU markets[22] - High-tech product exports grew by 9.2% in the first half of the year, indicating a sustained demand for advanced manufacturing[22]

2025年07月14日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡上行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 2 | | 铜：现货走弱，价格承压 | 4 | | 锌：中期偏空 | 6 | | 铅：旺季预期支撑 | 7 | | 锡：价格走弱 | 8 | | 铝：库存过低，虚实比较高 | 10 | | 氧化铝：关注累库幅度 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，全球精炼镍边际累库 | 12 | | 不锈钢：现实与宏观博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 14 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, both China and the US will release a series of important economic data. In the US, the June CPI and PPI data, as well as the July Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value, are highly noteworthy. Economists expect the June CPI to rise 2.7% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 2.4%, and the core CPI to rise 3% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in July are less than 7%, but an unexpected inflation data may force the Fed to act. In China, the June import and export data, June M2 year - on - year, January - June new RMB loans, and social financing scale increment are all important [8]. - The stock index futures are in a long - position pattern. Last week, the market continued to rise due to expectations of supply - side reform and rumors of the restart of shantytown renovation. The current policy focus on the supply side is conducive to the repair of price indicators and has a positive impact on corporate profits. As long as there is no unexpected negative news, the long - position pattern is expected to continue. However, the trend may be reversed by external risk disturbances or a shift in domestic policies towards structural adjustment [9]. - For various commodities, different trends are predicted, such as gold showing an upward trend in a volatile manner, silver breaking through and rising, and copper prices being under pressure due to weak spot markets [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US and China Economic Data Focus - **US Data**: The June CPI and PPI data are crucial. Economists expect the June CPI to rise 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI to rise 3% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. The July Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value also deserves attention. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in July are less than 7%, but lower - than - expected inflation data may lead to an emergency rate cut [8]. - **China Data**: The June import and export data, June M2 year - on - year, January - June new RMB loans, and social financing scale increment are all worthy of high attention [8]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The current market is in a long - position pattern. The core changes last week came from expectations of supply - side reform and rumors of shantytown renovation restart, leading to a joint upward movement of cyclical and growth stocks. The policy focus on the supply side is beneficial for price indicator repair and corporate profit improvement. Without unexpected negative news, the long - position pattern is likely to continue. The trend may be reversed by external risk disturbances or a shift in domestic policies towards structural adjustment. This week, the release of domestic economic data and the impact of mid - year report earnings announcements on growth - style stocks should be monitored [9][10]. 3.3 Commodity Market 3.3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Gold is expected to rise in a volatile manner, and silver is expected to break through and rise. The trend strength of both is 1 [13][19][21]. 3.3.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: The spot market is weak, and prices are under pressure. The trend strength is 0 [13][23][25]. - **Zinc**: It is bearish in the medium - term, with a trend strength of - 1 [13][26][27]. - **Lead**: Supported by peak - season expectations, the trend strength is 0 [13][29]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend strength of 0 [13][31][34]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory is low, and the virtual - to - real ratio is high. Alumina requires attention to the inventory accumulation amplitude, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of all three is 0 [13][36][38]. - **Nickel**: The support from the ore end is loosening, and global refined nickel is marginally accumulating inventory. Stainless steel prices are oscillating due to the game between reality and macro factors. The trend strength of both is 0 [13][39][44]. 3.3.3 Energy - related Commodities - **Coke**: A first - round price increase has started, and it is expected to be strong in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 0 [13][66][68]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by news, it is expected to be strong in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 1 [13][66][68]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and the price is stabilizing in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 0 [13][69][71]. 3.3.4 Other Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, and macro and warehouse - receipt disturbances may occur repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [13][45][48]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to changes in the supply side. The trend strength is 1. Polysilicon is affected by policy disturbances, with increased market volatility, and the trend strength is 0 [13][49][51]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it is expected to be strong in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 0 [13][52]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The sector sentiment remains strong, and prices are oscillating in a wide range. The trend strength of both is 1 [13][55][60]. - **Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Both are expected to oscillate in a wide range, with a trend strength of 0 for both [13][61][64].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by increased trade uncertainties due to new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, alongside escalating geopolitical risks related to Russia and Ukraine, and diverging expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy [3][4][6]. Group 1: Trade Uncertainty and Tariffs - The Trump administration has announced significant tariffs on imports from Mexico, the EU, Canada, and Brazil, with rates ranging from 15% to 50%, effective August 1 [3]. - Historical data indicates that during periods of escalating trade tensions, gold prices typically rise, as seen in the current market response to these tariff announcements [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The U.S. Congress is advancing a bill imposing punitive tariffs of 500% on countries purchasing Russian energy, targeting major clients like India and China, which could exacerbate geopolitical tensions [4]. - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with U.S. military support for Ukraine, has heightened geopolitical risk, further driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - There is a divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some fearing prolonged inflationary pressures, while others see it as a temporary spike [6]. - Market expectations for potential interest rate cuts are influencing gold prices, with indications that the Fed may lower rates twice in 2025, aligning with a 60% probability of a rate cut in September [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold has broken through the resistance level of $3,350 per ounce, indicating a strong bullish trend, with technical indicators suggesting further upward potential [7]. - The price is currently consolidating within a range of $3,353 to $3,374 per ounce, with a key support level at $3,343 per ounce [7].