1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diversified trend. Different sectors, such as financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals, have their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, in financial derivatives, stock index futures are expected to test 3900 again, while treasury bond futures have opportunities despite fluctuations; in agricultural products, the supply - demand situation of various varieties varies, affecting their price trends [5][20][26] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to test 3900 again. On Thursday, the market showed a sideways shock. The main stock index futures contracts mostly declined, and the trading volume and positions decreased. The market rebound was affected by factors such as the overnight decline of the US stock market, and it is expected to maintain a sideways consolidation trend [18][20] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There were fluctuations, but opportunities remained. On Thursday, most treasury bond futures closed higher, and the market funds were balanced and slightly loose. The central bank's open - market operations and market rumors affected the bond market sentiment. In the short term, the central bank's loose tone remained unchanged, but the long - end repair rhythm might be repeated [22][23][24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The production outlook was good, and US soybeans continued to be under pressure. The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indexes declined. The US soybean export sales decreased, and the Brazilian soybean production was expected to increase. The domestic soybean meal crushing profit was still in deficit, and the overall price was expected to be supported but with limited sustainability [26][27][28] - **Sugar**: International sugar prices dropped sharply. The ICE and London sugar futures prices declined. The Brazilian sugar production increase was basically realized, and the market focus shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. The domestic sugar market had increasing supply pressure, but the price had certain support near the cost line [29][30][33] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Palm oil had a technical rebound, and the overall oils were at the bottom - level shock. The overseas palm oil and soybean oil prices had small fluctuations. The Indonesian palm oil inventory decreased, and the domestic soybean oil inventory was gradually decreasing, while the rapeseed oil inventory was expected to continue to decline [35][36] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price declined, and the futures price was at the bottom - level shock. The CBOT corn futures rebounded. The domestic corn processing enterprise inventory increased, and the starch inventory also increased. The Northeast corn price was strong, while the North China corn price was weak [37][38][39] - **Hogs**: The slaughter recovered, and the spot price fluctuated slightly. The hog price was stable in most regions. The short - term slaughter pressure decreased, but the overall supply pressure still existed [39][40][41] - **Peanuts**: The spot price declined, and the futures price had a narrow - range shock. The peanut price was stable in some regions and declined in others. The oil factory's purchase price was adjusted, and the 03 peanut futures price still had a downward space [42][43][44] - **Eggs**: The demand was average, and the egg price was stable with a slight decline. The main - producing and main - selling area prices were relatively stable. The number of laying hens decreased slightly, and the short - term supply pressure was relieved [45][46][47] - **Apples**: The demand was average, and the apple price was mainly stable. The cold - storage inventory decreased, and the import and export volume changed. The apple price was high before, which led to weak demand, and the market was concerned about the January delivery and pre - Spring Festival stocking [49][50][51] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton sales were good, and the cotton price was shock - upward. The ICE cotton futures price increased. The domestic cotton import and export volume changed, and the new cotton sales progress was fast. The market was affected by factors such as the expected reduction of cotton planting area and the expansion of textile factory capacity [52][53][54] Black Metals - **Steel**: The raw material prices stopped falling and stabilized, and the steel price rebounded from the bottom. The steel product supply decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the consumption decreased slightly. The steel price was affected by factors such as the raw material supply, demand, and export policy, and it was expected to show a shock - upward trend [57][58][59] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices rebounded from the bottom, and the trading logic change needed attention. The Mongolian coking coal market was strong, and the prices of some domestic coking coal increased. The market "anti - involution" sentiment led to the price rebound, and the future supply - demand situation might improve slightly [59][60][61] - **Iron Ore**: The market expectations were repeated, and the ore price was in shock. The domestic crude steel and rebar production decreased, and the iron ore production increased slightly. The global iron ore supply was loose, and the domestic demand was weak. The ore price was expected to have limited upward space [62][63][64] - **Ferroalloys**: Supported by cost and the "anti - involution" expectation, the prices rebounded in the short term. The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon prices were stable with a slight increase. The supply was expected to decline slightly, and the demand was under pressure. The cost support and "anti - involution" expectation led to the price rebound [64][65][66] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The US November CPI was better than expected, but the data was questionable, leading to market fluctuations. The international gold and silver prices fluctuated widely, and the US dollar index and US bond yields changed. The market was in a long - short tug - of - war, and the gold and silver prices were expected to maintain a high - level range [67][68][69] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The trading enthusiasm was over - high, and the risk factors were gradually accumulating. The platinum and palladium futures prices increased significantly, and the trading volume expanded. The macro - environment was favorable, and the news boosted the demand outlook. The platinum was short - term bullish, and the palladium might be affected by the macro - environment [69][70][71] - **Copper**: Buy after a full correction. The copper futures prices increased, and the inventory increased. The US inflation data affected the market, and the copper supply was expected to be tight in 2026. The long - term price trend was upward, but the short - term might be in shock [74][75][76] - **Alumina**: The price was in a weak shock. The alumina futures price declined, and the spot price decreased slightly. The overseas supply negotiation and domestic inventory situation affected the price. The price was expected to be under pressure after the "anti - involution" expectation subsided [78][79][80] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overseas economic data was released this week, and the aluminum price rebounded. The electrolytic aluminum futures price increased, and the inventory decreased. The overseas economic data was better than expected, and the domestic demand was resilient. The price was supported [83][84][85] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The scrap aluminum supply was still tight, and the alloy price rebounded with the sector. The cast aluminum alloy futures price increased, and the spot price increased. The scrap aluminum supply was tight, and the cost supported the price. The price was expected to maintain a high - level shock [86][87] - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the domestic social inventory today. The zinc futures price increased, and the spot price had a small change. The overseas zinc inventory increased, and the domestic smelting profit was compressed. The price was under pressure from the external market [88][89][90] - **Lead**: Pay attention to the inventory change. The lead futures price increased, and the spot price decreased slightly. The domestic lead supply and demand decreased, and the inventory became more visible. The price was expected to maintain a range shock [91][92][93] - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy expectation stimulated the nickel price rebound, but the surplus suppressed the upward space. The LME nickel price increased, and the inventory decreased. The global nickel was in a surplus situation, but the Indonesian policy adjustment stimulated the price rebound. The price was expected to decline after the short - term rebound [93][94][95] - **Stainless Steel**: Followed the nickel price and weakened in shock. The stainless steel inventory decreased, and the terminal demand was in the off - season. The price was affected by the nickel price and demand, and it was expected to be at a low - level shock [96][97][99] - **Industrial Silicon**: Sell on rallies. The industrial silicon was in a state of inventory accumulation. The demand in the first quarter of 2026 was pessimistic, and the price was expected to decline. It was recommended to sell on rallies [99][100] - **Polysilicon**: Realize the profits of long positions and pay attention to risk management. The polysilicon futures trading rules changed. The downstream demand was relatively pessimistic, and the short - term price was expected to be strong. It was recommended to take profits on long positions and buy after a correction [100][101][103] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The inventory reduction was slower than expected, and the lithium price was under pressure to correct. The lithium carbonate price had a short - term correction, and the inventory reduction was slow. The price was expected to be at a high - level, and it was recommended to operate cautiously [104][105] - **Tin**: Pay attention to the November export data from Myanmar. The tin futures price increased, and the inventory increased. The US inflation data was questionable, and the domestic tin supply and demand were weak. The price was expected to be affected by the Myanmar export data and market fluctuations [107][108][109] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: MSK released the price of 2500/2600 for the first week, and pay attention to the January freight rate change path. The spot freight rate increased slightly. The European port congestion was serious, and the demand was expected to improve in December - January. The short - term price was expected to be at a high - level shock, and it was recommended to take partial profits on long positions [110][111][113] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The surplus pressure was difficult to change, and the oil price rebound was limited. The crude oil futures prices increased slightly. The US inflation and employment data changed, and the geopolitical situation was uncertain. The oil price was expected to be in a weak shock in the medium - term [114][115][116] - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand was weak, and the raw material risk remained. The asphalt futures price declined, and the spot price was stable. The terminal demand decreased, and the raw material supply was uncertain. The price was expected to be in a narrow - range shock [117][118][119] - **Fuel Oil**: The short - term low - sulfur supply was continuously increasing. The fuel oil futures prices increased slightly. The low - sulfur supply was expected to increase, and the high - sulfur demand was stable and weak. The short - term price was expected to be bearish [120][121][122] - **Natural Gas**: The LNG downward trend remained unchanged. The natural gas futures prices had different changes. The weather affected the demand, and the overall supply was loose. The HH2602 contract long positions were recommended to be held [124][125][126] - **LPG**: The PDH profit continued to be in deficit. The LPG futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The international LPG market was strong, and the PDH profit was in deficit. It was recommended to short the 03 contract on rallies [127][128][129] - **PX & PTA**: The polyester sales volume increased, and the market atmosphere was boosted. The PX and PTA futures prices increased. The PTA supply was expected to increase slowly, and the downstream polyester demand was high. The price was expected to be shock - upward [131][132] - **BZ & EB**: The pure benzene supply - demand was loose, and the styrene basis weakened. The pure benzene and styrene futures prices declined slightly. The pure benzene supply increased and demand decreased, and the styrene supply and demand were also weak. The price was expected to be in a weak shock [134][135][136] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory accumulation pressure remained, and the price was in shock. The ethylene glycol futures price increased slightly. The supply and demand were weak, and the inventory had a de - stocking pressure. The short - term price was expected to be in shock and weak in the medium - term [138][139] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand was weak. The short - fiber futures price increased. The short - fiber supply and demand decreased, and the processing fee was under pressure. The price was expected to be shock - upward [140][142] - **Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand was relatively loose. The bottle - chip futures price increased. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was relatively stable. The price was expected to be shock - upward [143][144] - **Propylene**: The demand was poor, and the rebound was weak. The propylene futures price increased first and then decreased. The propylene supply was expected to be high, and the demand was weak. The short - term price was expected to be shock - upward [146][147] - **Plastic PP**: The PE production decreased month - on - month, and the PP production increased month - on - month. The L and PP futures prices declined slightly. The PE and PP supply and demand had different changes. It was recommended to wait and see for the L and PP 2605 contracts [148][150][151] - **Caustic Soda**: The price was in a shock trend. The caustic soda spot price had a small adjustment. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a weak shock [152][153][154] - **PVC**: The price continued to rebound. The PVC futures price increased, and the spot price increased slightly. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to continue to rebound [155][156][157] - **Soda Ash**: The futures price was in a strong trend. The soda ash futures price increased, and the spot price had a small change. The supply was expected to be under pressure in the future, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be shock - upward next week with a risk of decline at the end of the month [157][158][159] - **Glass**: The futures price was in a strong trend. The glass futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The supply was expected to be reduced, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be shock - upward next week with a risk of decline at the end of the month [160][161][163] - **Methanol**: The price rose strongly. The methanol production increased, and the international device operation was affected. The price was expected to be shock - upward [165][166] - **Urea**: The price continued to rise. The urea production decreased slightly, and the international market had an impact. The short - term price was expected to be strong, and the medium - long - term supply - demand was relatively loose [167][168][169] - **Pulp**: The reality was weak, but the expectation was strong. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt registration and port inventory changes. The pulp futures price declined slightly, and the spot price had a small adjustment. The cost supported the price, but the demand was weak. It was recommended to hold the previous short positions [170][171][173] - **Logs**: The fundamentals were weak, and the futures - spot price was inverted. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt registration. The log price was stable, and the inventory and arrival volume changed. The price was expected to continue to bottom - out. It was recommended to hold the 03 long positions [173][174][175] - **Offset Printing Paper**: The supply pressure remained, and the high pulp price transmission did not meet expectations. The offset printing paper futures price declined slightly, and the spot price was stable. The production and inventory of double - offset paper and coated paper changed. The price was expected to be bearish [179][180] - **Natural Rubber**: The tire production line decreased month - on - month. The natural rubber futures prices had different changes. The Thai government took measures to stabilize the price, and the domestic tire production decreased. It was recommended to short the RU 05 contract slightly and hold the NR 02 contract long positions [182][183] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The BD & BR production decreased marginally, and the tire production decreased month - on - month. The butadiene rubber futures price increased, and the natural rubber futures prices had different changes. The domestic butadiene and tire production decreased. It was recommended to hold the BR 02 contract long positions [186][187][188]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 is projected to finish 2026 around $7,500, indicating an 11.5% price upside from the current level of $6,728, along with a dividend yield of over 1% [1] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy focuses on deep fundamentals, impactful narratives, and Austrian economics [1] - Long-horizon research emphasizes digital assets, macroeconomic factors, and general value opportunities, while short-horizon research targets options and volatility for income generation and hedging [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The analysis presents a global, long-run macro view as the foundation for investment considerations, suggesting a balanced approach to market conditions [1]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [17]. Core Insights - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations and upward movement, with notable performance in the aerospace, pharmaceutical, cultural media, and banking sectors, while sectors like consumer electronics, batteries, and securities showed weaker performance [2][3]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are currently at 15.90 times and 48.80 times, respectively, which are above the median levels of the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][16]. - The total trading volume on the two exchanges was 16,770 billion, which is above the median trading volume of the past three years, indicating active market participation [3][16]. - The central economic work conference has set a tone of "more proactive and effective" economic policies for the coming year, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have led to fluctuating expectations regarding future easing [3][16]. - The current macroeconomic environment is in a state of mild recovery, but the foundation still needs to be solidified, supporting the ongoing upward trend in the A-share market [3][16]. - It is anticipated that the Shanghai Composite Index will consolidate around the 4,000-point mark, with cyclical and technology sectors expected to perform alternately [3][16]. - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in the pharmaceutical, aerospace, banking, and cultural media sectors [3][16]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On December 18, the A-share market faced resistance after a rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,876.37 points, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.29% [7][8]. - Over 60% of stocks in the two markets rose, with significant gains in the pharmaceutical, aerospace, commercial retail, and banking sectors, while sectors like batteries and electronic chemicals saw declines [7][9]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The market is expected to maintain a consolidation phase around the 4,000-point level, with a focus on macroeconomic data, overseas liquidity changes, and policy directions [3][16]. - Investors are advised to pay close attention to investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical, aerospace, banking, and cultural media sectors in the short term [3][16].

Production - In November, industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.4%, indicating resilience in industrial operations[1] - The service production index grew by 4.2% year-on-year, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[1] Investment - Fixed asset investment in November saw a month-on-month decline of 12.0%, with a cumulative growth rate dropping to -2.6%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Infrastructure investment showed a cumulative growth rate of 0.1% for broad infrastructure and -1.1% for narrow infrastructure, both continuing to decline[2] - Real estate investment fell by 15.9% cumulatively, with funding and sales also showing significant declines, indicating ongoing instability in housing prices[2] Consumption - Social retail sales grew by 1.3% year-on-year in November, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to high base effects from last year[3] - Restaurant consumption showed relative resilience with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, while retail sales of goods increased by only 1.0%, reflecting a notable slowdown[3] Policy Outlook - The necessity for policy support has increased due to continued weak demand, with the December Central Economic Work Conference emphasizing the need for proactive fiscal measures and enhancing macroeconomic governance[5] - The policy toolbox remains ample, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply[5]

许多投资者希望借助黄金抵御经济波动，却常常将现货黄金与购买实物金饰混为一谈。现货黄金是一种国际金融衍生工具，通过杠杆机制支持全天候交易， 为投资者提供基于价格变动的灵活机会。 截至2025年12月18日，现货黄金价格在4330美元/盎司附近高位震荡，受美联储政策调整及全球避险情绪影响，年内涨幅显著。 现货黄金的基本概念 现货黄金的市场特点 现货黄金市场实现24小时不间断交易，从亚洲到欧洲再到美洲时区无缝衔接，确保投资者能及时应对国际事件。 现货黄金，通常称为伦敦金，是以美元计价的国际黄金交易品种。其起源可追溯到伦敦黄金市场，早期的标准化模式奠定了今日全球贵金属交易的基础。 与实物黄金不同，现货黄金无需实际持有或交割金条，而是通过价格差额结算。这使得交易更注重市场流动性和透明度，而非存储与物流问题。 金盛贵金属作为香港黄金交易所认可的电子交易商，提供相关现货黄金服务，帮助投资者参与这一全球性市场。业内人士指出，现货黄金常被视为反映宏观 经济和地缘因素的资产。 现货黄金的核心交易规则 现货黄金采用T+0模式，意味着投资者可在同一日内多次进出仓位，操作更为灵活。 它还允许双向操作：价格上涨时可做多，下跌时可做空，从 ...

Revenue Insights - In November, the national general public budget revenue was 1,402.6 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.02%[2] - Tax revenue growth slowed down, with November tax revenue recorded at 1,145.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, down from 8.6% in the previous month[2] - Non-tax revenue in November was 257.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10.8%, but the decline was less severe than the previous month[2] Expenditure Trends - General budget expenditure in November was 2,271.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%, but showing a marginal improvement from a previous decline of 9.8%[3] - Social security and employment expenditure saw a significant drop, decreasing by 7% in November, marking a rare negative growth in the past three years[3] - Science and technology expenditure increased significantly by 28 percentage points to 27% in November, indicating a focus on innovation[3] Government Fund Dynamics - Government fund revenue in November was 580.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, but the decline was less than the previous month by 2.6 percentage points[4] - Government fund expenditure surged to 1,123.2 billion yuan in November, with a year-on-year growth rate of 41 percentage points, indicating a strong recovery in spending[4] - The issuance of special bonds accelerated, contributing to the significant increase in government fund expenditure[4] Fiscal Health Outlook - The overall fiscal revenue decline is expected to be manageable, with potential revenue gaps estimated at around 340 billion yuan under certain assumptions[4] - If the government fund revenue growth continues as in November, the total revenue gap could exceed 750 billion yuan, but the impact on the economy is expected to be limited[4]

德勤中国华南区主管合伙人欧振兴表示，香港新股市场的前景仍将在一定程度上受到宏观经济及地缘政 治因素影响，包括美国货币政策走向、全球资金配置动向，以及中国企业出海与扩大内需的政策取向。 与此同时，资本市场的持续改革与制度优化，将在提升香港市场整体竞争力、流动性及估值水平方面发 挥关键作用，并逐步改善新股市场的生态与表现。 他续指，市场近日就修订同股不同权公司上市要求、调整新股买卖单位等改革展开讨论，亦期望监管机 构能进一步检视双重主要上市及第二上市制度，深化港交所与东南亚证券交易所的合作，并建立更具针 对性的机制，便利海外企业来港上市。 智通财经APP获悉，12月18日，德勤中国资本市场服务部发布《中国内地及香港IPO市场 2025年回顾与 2026年前景展望》。资本市场服务部预测，在目前超过300宗上市申请个案的名单支持下，2026年全 年，香港新股市场将有约160只新股，融资不少于3000亿港元。预计其中将有7只新股，每只最少融资 100亿港元，其中包括内地龙头企业。除了有大量A+H股上市申请人外，科技、传媒及电讯、医疗、消 费、国际公司以及在美上市的中概股的上市项目也将成为市场关注的焦点。 德勤提及，美国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the global macro - economy is expected to maintain resilience, supporting risk sentiment. The macro - economic mainline will shift from trade policies and geopolitical relations to economic fundamentals, and major economies will be in a period of relatively abundant macro - liquidity mainly driven by fiscal expansion [2][49]. - The global economy, led by the US, will maintain resilience in 2026, continuing to support the performance of risk assets. The structure may be more balanced than in 2025, with the technology sector, industry prosperity logic, and macro - cycle opportunities intertwined [3][50]. - The long - term US Treasury bond yield has limited trends in 2026, with an upward - risk bias. The US dollar index is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation throughout the year, with an upward - risk bias [3][163][172]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Overseas Macroeconomic Mainline Logic and Performance Review of Major Asset Classes - **Economic fundamentals**: In 2025, the US economy maintained a relatively high growth rate, but the actual GDP growth rate declined marginally compared to 2024. Non - US economies were stronger in the first half of the year, and the US economy was stronger in the second half. The inventory and net exports of the US GDP fluctuated greatly in the first half due to trade policies, and personal consumption and private fixed investment showed certain resilience. The US industrial output increased, and there were signs of an early - cycle expansion. Monetary policy continued to cut interest rates, and the yield of US Treasury bonds declined, but the stock - market valuation remained basically unchanged. The fiscal deficit ratio decreased [7][8][16][17][26]. - **Adapting to the new reality of the tariff era**: In 2025, tariff policies were the most important macro - risks. The overall US tariff rate remained high, and the "severe decoupling" between China and the US turned into "slow decoupling." The "tariff - inflation" transmission was relatively mild, and the US inflation expectation became stable and desensitized to tariff uncertainties [30][37][39]. - **Performance review of major asset classes**: In 2025, the global market had a good year. Global equity markets rose significantly, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the STAR 50 Index leading the way. The bond market also had positive returns, and the commodity market was highly differentiated [47][48]. 3.2 2026 Overseas Macroeconomic Outlook 3.2.1 "From Politics to Economy", "From International to Domestic" - The mainline of the global macro - economy will shift from trade policies and geopolitical relations to economic fundamentals, and the focus of geopolitics will shift from international to domestic. The US mid - term elections, China's 14th Five - Year Plan, the eurozone's fiscal expansion, and Japan's new policies will all focus on domestic economic and political issues [55]. - **Tariff policy changes**: The "general tariff" under the IEEPA framework is facing challenges. If the government loses the lawsuit, the IEEPA tariff will be revoked. Relevant industry tariffs may become an important legal tool for rebuilding the high - tariff system, and attention should be paid to changes in key industries and commodity trade flows [56][58]. - **US National Security Strategy**: The US National Security Strategy focuses on economic and financial security, including trade balance, ensuring key supply chains, re - industrialization, energy dominance, revitalizing the US dollar, and tax cuts and deregulation. It shows a shift from maintaining global leadership to focusing on national interests [61]. 3.2.2 Macro - liquidity - **Monetary policy**: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates to 3.25% in 2026, with two 50bp cuts in total. There is a risk that the final interest - rate cut space is less than expected, and there is a probability of an early end to the interest - rate cut cycle or a start of an interest - rate hike cycle. The Fed is expected to restart balance - sheet expansion in the second half of 2026 [65][67][68]. - **Fiscal policy**: The US fiscal policy will expand marginally in 2026. The "Great Beauty Act" will have a positive impact on the economy, and the fiscal deficit ratio is expected to expand moderately. The risk of concerns about the sustainability of US Treasury bonds is relatively controllable [78][79][80]. - **Macro - liquidity**: The US financial conditions index is expected to continue to expand in 2026, mainly driven by factors such as the decline in the benchmark interest rate, credit expansion, and the resilience of the equity market. The expansion of the financial conditions index is expected to have a more significant impact on the real economy [86][94][96]. 3.2.3 Economic Structure - **Forward - looking and backward - looking indicators**: The US economy is currently in a situation where forward - looking indicators are improving while backward - looking indicators are still weak. It is expected that the backward - looking indicators will improve in 2026 [101]. - **Inflation**: Inflation is expected to remain above the Fed's target in 2026, with a CPI growth rate of 2.8%. The "pro - cyclical inflation" will have a relatively limited impact on macro - assets [103][104]. - **Employment**: The employment market is trending downward, supporting the Fed's interest - rate cut tendency. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% in the first half of 2026 and then fall to 4.4% in the second half [114]. - **Consumption**: Personal consumption is expected to remain stable in 2026, showing a K - shaped differentiation. Consumption may be weak in the first half due to income factors and will be boosted by the employment market and fiscal policies in the second half [121][122]. - **Private fixed investment**: Private fixed investment is expected to be a highlight in 2026, with a significant improvement in the quarter - on - quarter growth rate. However, the structure is differentiated, and it is necessary to follow industry Alpha [128][129]. 3.2.4 Debate on the "AI Bubble" - The "AI bubble" reflects concerns about the sustainability of AI investment, debt, and return on investment. At the index level, there is no systematic risk for now, but the risk is concentrated in leading technology companies. It is recommended to track risks through indicators such as ROIC - WACC, credit market risk exposure, and the profit erosion of depreciation and amortization [135][137][147]. 3.3 US Treasury Bond Market - In 2026, the long - term US Treasury bond yield has limited trends, with an upward - risk bias. The 10 - year US Treasury bond interest - rate center may be around 4.20%, with support at 3.95 - 4.00 and the first target at 4.35% and the second target at 4.65%. The 2 - year US Treasury bond yield has support at around 3.20% and a target of 3.68%. The yield curve may show a "bull steepening" in the first half and a "bear steepening" in the second half [163][164]. 3.4 US Dollar Index - The US dollar index is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in 2026, with an annual oscillation range of 96 - 108 and an upward - risk bias. The oscillation range in the first quarter of 2026 is 97.7 - 102. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of economic relative strength, the marginal change of interest - rate differentials, and carry - trade themes [172][180].

Core Viewpoint - China's macroeconomic operation continues to show overall stability and progress, with a projected growth rate of around 5% for the year, laying a solid foundation for the 14th Five-Year Plan and 2026 [2][17]. Economic Performance - The industrial added value maintained a stable and relatively fast growth, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% in November and 6.0% from January to November [4]. - Fixed asset investment is on a downward trend, with a total of 444,035 billion yuan from January to November, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%. Excluding real estate development investment, fixed asset investment grew by 0.8% [4][6]. - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 15.9% year-on-year from January to November, with the decline expanding compared to the previous month [12]. Consumption Trends - Social retail sales totaled 43,898 billion yuan in November, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3% and a cumulative growth of 4.0% from January to November [7]. - Consumption patterns show steady growth in basic and some upgraded goods, with significant increases in food, communication equipment, and cultural office supplies [7]. Export Resilience - Exports showed strong resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% in November, reaching a record high of 330.35 billion USD for the year [9]. - Exports to the US stabilized, while growth rates for exports to ASEAN and the EU remained robust, compensating for the decline in exports to the US [9]. Financial Indicators - Social financing maintained good growth, with a total of 2.49 trillion yuan in November, a year-on-year increase of 1,597 billion yuan [14]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.7% year-on-year in November, indicating a steady upward trend in prices [14]. Future Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference indicated that achieving the 5% growth target for 2025 is highly likely, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations for 2026 [17][18]. - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain an expansionary stance, with a projected deficit rate of 4%-4.2% and an increase in special government bond issuance to support key areas [21]. - Monetary policy will remain flexible, with potential small-scale adjustments to interest rates and reserve requirements to ensure liquidity and support economic growth [22].

Group 1 - The U.S. Labor Department reported that non-farm employment increased by 64,000 in November, significantly below the market expectation of 200,000, causing global markets to react negatively [1] - Major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with tech stocks and AI-related shares facing notable sell-offs [1] - The volatility of U.S. Treasury bonds decreased to its lowest level since May of the previous year, while the ten-year Treasury yield only slightly decreased by 0.5 basis points [1] Group 2 - The cryptocurrency market also faced adjustments, with Bitcoin dropping to around $85,000 and Ethereum briefly falling below $2,900 [3] - A total of $582 million in liquidations occurred across the crypto market within 24 hours, with Ethereum accounting for $186 million and Bitcoin for $174 million [3] - XBIT Wallet's features, such as cold storage and real-time risk monitoring, are highlighted as essential tools for investors in high-volatility environments [3] Group 3 - The selection of the next Federal Reserve chair is becoming a critical factor influencing interest rate curves and inflation expectations, with concerns about the close relationship between candidate Hassett and President Trump [4][6] - If the new chair is perceived as an extension of the president rather than an independent central bank leader, it could lead to higher long-term Treasury yields and increased government financing costs [6] - The appointment will significantly impact market perceptions of real interest rates, monetary easing boundaries, and the dollar cycle, which will resonate in Bitcoin's volatility and long-term trends [6] Group 4 - Historical patterns suggest that the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, tends to follow a predictable script around macroeconomic events like non-farm data releases [7] - The significance of the non-farm data lies in its potential to reshape market judgments on inflation persistence and interest rate paths, affecting the entire chain from the dollar index to crypto markets [7] - XBIT Wallet's capabilities, such as rapid cross-chain transfers and reduced transaction fees, are positioned as advantageous for users needing to adjust their positions quickly during high-volatility events [7] Group 5 - The non-farm data release tests investors' ability to withstand volatility, with the underlying logic of the crypto market remaining unchanged as both a barometer of macroeconomic conditions and a testing ground for technological innovation [9] - Utilizing professional tools like XBIT Wallet can help Bitcoin investors capture trend opportunities while maintaining a safety margin [9]