Group 1 - The current spot gold price is around $3340 per ounce, showing a slight increase of 0.27% from the previous trading day, supported by a weakening US dollar index which hit a four-year low at 97.449 [1][2] - The market is focused on two main variables: the impact of the latest developments in Iran nuclear negotiations on geopolitical risk premiums, and the upcoming US May PCE inflation data on June 27, which may reshape Federal Reserve policy expectations [1][3] Group 2 - The decline of the US dollar index is driven by multiple factors, including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's emphasis on waiting for the impact of tariffs on inflation before making interest rate decisions, which has led to a market perception of a potential rate cut this year [3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield has slightly decreased to 4.287%, reflecting growing concerns about economic slowdown, further diminishing the dollar's interest rate advantage [3] - The negative correlation between the dollar index and gold prices is particularly evident in the current environment, with gold's relative value increasing for investors holding currencies like the euro and pound [3] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding the Iran nuclear negotiations remains a significant variable in gold pricing, with skepticism about the sustainability of the ceasefire agreement announced by Trump [5][6] - The complexity of geopolitical risks is highlighted by the potential for both reduced safe-haven demand for gold due to the ceasefire and the retention of Iran's technical capabilities, which could lead to retaliatory actions [6] Group 4 - The upcoming US May PCE data is expected to show a decrease in core PCE year-on-year from 2.8% in April to 2.6%, potentially the lowest level since March 2021 [7] - If the PCE data meets or falls below expectations, it may strengthen market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, further weakening the dollar and boosting gold prices [7] Group 5 - From a technical perspective, gold has shown a downward trend for seven consecutive weeks, with a critical resistance level at $3355; failure to break this level may lead to further declines towards the $3300 support level [8] - Conversely, if geopolitical risks resurface or the PCE data is weak, gold prices could rebound above $3400 [8] Group 6 - Overall, while the weakening dollar provides short-term support for gold, geopolitical uncertainties and potential impacts from the PCE data limit the upside potential for gold prices [10]

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 盘整 油价重回基本面定价，消费旺季 VS 供给增加，油价盘整。本周一周二油 价大幅下跌，地缘风险溢价被挤出，油价重回基本面定价。OPEC+从 4 月 份开始正式增产，当前产能处于增产初期，加上当前处于消费旺季，油价 下方有一定支撑，但随着增产量逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大。策略：轻 仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【490-520】 LPG 反弹偏空 地缘缓和，成本端大幅下降，液化气承压。特朗普宣布，以色列和伊朗已 同意全面停火，成本端油价大幅回落；下游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷 基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端利好，港口库存连续下降。策略：成本 端利空，可轻仓试空。PG【4250-4350】 L 空头盘整 装置大量重启，停车比例降至 13%，美伊冲突升级，盘面波动加剧。淡季 继续补库意愿不足，华北基差为 19（环比+71）。本周检修力度增加，预 计产量继续下降。需求淡季，下游补库力度放缓，关注后续库存去化力度。 策略：反弹偏空。L【7200-7400】 PP 空头盘整 停车比例上升，下游刚需采购，综合利润修复。华东基差为 116（环比-42）。 近期检修力度加剧，预 ...

交易员正在加大对美债看涨期权的押注，认为10年期美债收益率可能将跌至4%。8月到期的10年期美债 看涨期权在上周五和本周一吸引了至少3800万美元的资金。 不过，市场仍不乏反对的声音。TS Lombard的Daniel von Ahlen和Adrea Cicione写道，投资者持有较长期 美债所要求的额外收益，即期限溢价，最近并没有太大变化。这种稳定表明10年期美债收益率不太可能 跌至4%以下，因为"如果风险溢价没有实质性的压缩，收益率进一步下跌的空间就有限了。"他们说， 美联储不太可能在下一个宽松周期中将利率降至3%以下，将进一步支撑高收益率。 （文章来源：新华财经） 大型银行此前批评该资本规定限制其持有更多美国国债并在29万亿美元的市场中发挥中介作用的能力。 美联储负责监管的副主席鲍曼表示，该提案将有助于增强美国国债市场的韧性，减少市场功能失常的可 能性以及美联储在未来压力事件中干预的需要。 美联储主席鲍威尔对此表示支持。他周二出席众议院金融服务委员会听证会时表示："当杠杆率具有约 束力时，就会阻碍银行从事低利润率、相当安全的活动，比如国债市场中介。"由于银行资产负债表上 相对安全资产的比例显著增加，重新 ...

6月26日，据追风交易台消息，德意志银行在最新研报中称，金融市场对美联储明年的政策预期出现显著变化，特别是对新 任美联储主席上任后的降息预期异常激进。 德意志银行最新一份研报显示，市场对美联储明年的预期出现显著变化，预计新任主席或推动持续宽松。 注：残差，指实际观察值与估计值（拟合值）之间的差。"残差"蕴含了有关模型基本假设的重要信息。如果回归模型正确的 话， 可以将残差看作误差的观测值。 不过，报告也指出，对这种"新主席溢价"持谨慎态度。因为制定货币政策需要FOMC的多数票委支持，新任美联储主席需要 说服同僚支持不同的政策轨迹。这一制度约束意味着围绕新主席的政策定价不连续性应该是轻微的。 美联储现任主席任期将于明年5月到期，不过，据华尔街见闻文章指出，特朗普考虑最早今夏宣布下任美联储主席人选，远 早于传统的3-4个月过渡期。知情人士透露，特朗普希望通过提前宣布继任者，让"影子主席"在鲍威尔任期结束前就开始影 响市场预期和货币政策走向。 报告还称，自上周美联储理事沃勒等官员发表鸽派讲话以来，市场已为年底前额外定价约10个基点的降息。 统计模型揭示明年异常定价："新主席溢价"现象浮现 德意志银行称，真正引人注目 ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-06-26 盘面进入震荡，市场短期驱动有限 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收跌0.3%，报3011元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收涨0.49%，报3709元 /吨。 随着中东局势缓和，前期由于地缘冲突攀升的原油溢价也迅速回落，已基本抹去这轮冲突爆发以来的涨幅，并带 动能源板块大幅下跌。如果没有新的变数，原油和燃料油市场或重新进入基本面主导的阶段。 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求不及预期、欧佩克增产幅度超预期、船燃需求不及预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 高硫燃料油方面，近日月差结构明显转弱，反映现货端相对充裕，下游炼厂端利润的疲软制约了采购需求。随着 夏季临近，中东、埃及等地发电端需求逐步提升，市场调整后依然存在一定支撑。其中，埃及由于天然气产量供 应不足，可能会进口更多LNG和高硫燃料油来满足旺季电力需求。沙特燃料油进口量也呈现逐月攀升的态势。值 得一提的是，6月我国高硫燃料油到港量有一定增加的迹象，燃料油消费税抵扣比例可能会适当上调，这将带动炼 厂端的需求从低位回升。整体来看，地缘扰动结束后高 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-06-26 地缘溢价回落，供需两弱格局延续 市场分析 1、6月25日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3574元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌69元/吨，跌幅 1.89%；持仓251579手，环比下降17999手，成交282213手，环比下降178364手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3920—4086元/吨；山东，3650—4030元/吨；华南，3600—3750元/吨； 华东，3700—3800元/吨。 随着中东局势显著缓和，前期由于地缘冲突攀升的原油溢价也迅速回落，已基本抹去这轮冲突爆发以来的涨幅， 并带动包括沥青在内的能源板块期货整体下跌。现货方面，昨日西北、华东以及川渝地区沥青现货价格暂时持稳， 其余地区沥青现货价格均出现不同幅度下跌。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存维持低位。 原油价格大幅回落后，炼厂生产成本有所修复，炼厂生产积极性增强，或带动沥青产能利用率增加。与此同时， 天气与资金因素制约下，沥青刚性需求缺乏亮点，情绪仍较为谨慎，整体市场驱动不足。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the oil market is returning to fundamentals, with a significant decrease in US crude oil inventories, highlighting supply-side value and boosting oil soft power [1][3] - As of the last trading session, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for August delivery settled at $64.92 per barrel, up $0.55, a rise of 0.85%, while Brent crude oil for August delivery settled at $67.68 per barrel, up $0.54, a rise of 0.80% [1] - The US Energy Information Administration reported a decrease of 5.8 million barrels in crude oil inventories, far exceeding the market expectation of 1.3 million barrels, marking the fifth consecutive week of decline [1][3] Group 2 - The geopolitical risk premium is diminishing, with President Trump stating that tensions in the Middle East have "ended" and that the US will hold talks with Iran while maintaining pressure on Iranian oil revenues [1][3][4] - The OPEC alliance is considering increasing production again in August, with Russia expressing willingness to support this if deemed necessary, although there are internal disagreements among member countries regarding production strategies [2][4] - The current market is characterized by a "pulse rebound" in oil soft power, but overall, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to geopolitical uncertainties and OPEC's production decisions [2][4] Group 3 - The decline in inventories emphasizes the scarcity of supply, reinforcing the physical supply-demand tension in the oil market and shifting focus from geopolitical conflicts to domestic fundamentals in the US [3] - The dynamic interplay of macroeconomic disturbances, such as the expiration of tariff exemptions and potential new trade tensions, is likely to suppress oil demand expectations [4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations may further limit the rebound potential of oil prices, creating additional pressure alongside the diminishing geopolitical premium [4]

宝城期货原油早报-2025-06-26 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘情绪反复，原油震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普发表评论预示伊朗和以色列冲突将结束，市场交易地缘逻辑弱化。 随后消息传出伊朗和以色列宣布正式停火。这引发投资者大幅调整预期，认为中东地缘因素对于油 价的影响不会进一步激化 ...

6月25日（周三），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜在伊朗和以色列暂时停火的支撑下上涨，这改善了整 体市场情绪，金属市场的注意力转移到了现货铜合约溢价的大幅下跌上。 渣打银行分析师Sudakshina Unnikrishnan表示，本季度迄今为止，铜价一直保持稳定，因为铜受全球经 济增长前景担忧、铜精矿供应受限和LME注册仓库库存减少等因素左右。 伦敦时间6月25日17:00(北京时间6月26日00:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨43.5美元，或0.45%，收报每吨 9,712.5美元。 | | 6月25日 LME基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 全屋 | 收盘价 | 张跌 张跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 9.712.50 ↑ | +43.50 ↑ +0.45% | | 三个月期铝 | 2,563.50 ↓ | -15.50 J -0.60% | | 三个月期锌 | 2,704.50 ↑ | +23.00 ↑ +0.86% | | 三个月期铅 | 2,032.00 ↑ | +13.00 ↑ +0.64% | | 三个月期镇 | 15,074.00 ↑ | +154.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts from TS Lombard suggest that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is unlikely to fall below 4% due to stable term premiums and limited room for further yield declines if risk premiums do not compress significantly [1] Group 1: Yield Analysis - The additional yield required by investors for holding longer-term U.S. Treasuries, known as term premium, has not changed significantly recently [1] - The stability in term premiums indicates that there is limited space for further declines in yields [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is not expected to lower interest rates below 3% in the next easing cycle, which will further support high yields [1]