Group 1 - The euro is currently trading around 1.1426 against the US dollar, showing a decline of 0.12% from the previous close of 1.1439 [1] - This week is significant for euro traders due to the release of two high-impact financial data points: the preliminary harmonized consumer price index (HICP) for May and the revised GDP for the first quarter [2] - A slowdown in the HICP data could weaken the euro, indicating reduced inflationary pressure in the eurozone, which may increase the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) [2] Group 2 - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut from the ECB, but actual actions may not sufficiently weaken the euro, as another cut is expected by year-end [2] - Political instability within Europe, particularly related to Ukraine and Palestine, continues to be a concern for euro traders [2] - Any progress in ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine could positively impact the euro, while easing trade tensions between the EU and the US may also support the euro [2] Group 3 - The initial support level for the euro against the dollar is at the 55-day moving average of 1.1175, with further support levels at the May low of 1.1064 and the psychological level of 1.1000 [2] - If these levels are breached, the euro may test the critical 200-day moving average support at 1.0815 [2] - Momentum indicators show divergence, with the average directional index (ADX) around 20 indicating weakening trend strength, while the relative strength index (RSI) breaking above 60 suggests increasing bullish momentum [2]

【重点关注】 ·据证券时报，全国多地多措并举、加强管控，严防战略矿产非法外流。其中，国家出口管制工作协调 机制办公室《加强战略矿产出口全链条管控工作总体部署》按流程审批后印发实施，贵州将严格按照 《总体部署》分工，做好相关工作；湖南省相关主管部门表示，将认真落实属地监管责任，对湖南战略 矿产出口企业进行系统摸排并建立台账，指导企业加强合规制度建设，提高企业合规意识和能力，确保 管控措施落实到位；而广西将持续做好国家战略性矿产勘查开采的监督管理，加大对无证开采、越界开 采、以采代探等非法采矿行为的查处力度，坚决防止非法开采战略性矿产非法外流。 ·数据显示，5月，上海一二手住房合计成交223万平方米，同比增长17%。今年1-5月，上海房地产市 场"量升价稳"特征凸显。 ·商务部新闻发言人就美方有关言论答记者问：中方坚决拒绝无理指责 ·5月26日-6月1日全国货运物流有序运行 ·多地多措并举严防战略矿产非法外流 ·日本首相：无意在美国关税问题上让步 ·现货黄金本周开盘走高 【国内要闻】 ·商务部新闻发言人表示，美单方面不断挑起新的经贸摩擦，加剧双边经贸关系的不确定性、不稳定 性，不仅不反思自身，反而倒打一耙，无端指 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent surge in gold prices is driven by geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and a weakening US dollar, making gold an attractive safe-haven asset [3][4][5] - Trump's decision to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% has raised concerns about potential job losses and supply chain disruptions, particularly affecting Canada and the EU, which are major suppliers [3] - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated, with significant military actions from both sides, contributing to market uncertainty and further driving investors towards gold [3][4] Group 2 - The US dollar index has recently fallen below 99, which typically boosts gold prices as they have an inverse relationship [3] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold purchases, with last month's net buying reaching a new high, providing strong support for gold prices [3] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to increasing global economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and geopolitical risks, reinforcing its role as a hedge against inflation and market volatility [4][5]

自特朗普执政以来，中美的关系一直走下坡路，甚至一度降到了冰点。 美国更是无所不用其极，关税战打的啪啪响，还在科技和教育等方面给予压力，但似乎没得到一个理想 的结果。 本以为没了退路，但还是出现了转机，中美顺利完成通话，特朗普也是在无意中给我们送上了惊喜。 与此同时，万斯也低下头，承认他们败了，到底是什么情况？ 一、中美通话也许是一个好开端 特朗普自从上台就总是大言不惭，非说中国会主动打电话求和，实际上真正等电话的人是美国。 不管是之前的日内瓦谈话，还是此次电联，主动把电话打过来的都是美方，由此可以看出，焦急的人并 不是我们。 近日外交部对外发布了通告，二十二号，美副国务卿兰多主动把电话打了过来，与我国的副外长马朝旭 进行通话。 这一次通话主要是谈了谈两国关系以及双方都在意的一些问题，同时两边都同意会保持沟通。 虽然只是一次简单的通话，并不能说明当前的贸易谈判有了突破口，不过"保持沟通"这4个简单的字却 能够释放出积极的信号。 在后续的磋商过程中，关税壁垒确实有所松懈，然而美国针对我国商品依然维持着比较高的关税。 当然，我国也不是吃素的，不可能甘愿做砧板上的鱼肉，因此采取了不少反制政策，其中最显著的莫过 于对稀 ...

宏观月报 / 2025.05.31 ——5 月 PMI 数据解读 证券研究报告 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 分析师 马骏 SAC 证书编号：S0160523080004 majun@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《PMI 节前还比较弱——1 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-01-31 2. 《PMI 节后表现如何？——2 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-03-01 3. 《出口带动需求回暖——3 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-03-31 4. 《生产高位扩张，价格持续上行—— 4 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-04-31 5. 《成本压力上升——5 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-05-31 6. 《PMI 还是弱了些——6 月 PMI 数据 解读》 2024-06-30 7. 《出口订单创同期新高——7 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-07-31 8. 《外需仍有回升——8 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-08-31 9. 《PMI 再现背离，经济景气如何？— —9 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-09 ...

随着欧洲经济持续面临不确定性，欧洲央行官员Francois Villeroy de Galhau近日表示，未来可能会进一步降低借贷成本，特别是当前消费者价格没有明显的 上行压力。他强调，尽管全球经济环境复杂，尤其是美国的关税政策可能对全球通胀产生影响，但在欧洲并未看到类似的压力回升迹象。 整体来看，欧洲央行的政策路径正处于关键时刻。随着全球经济形势的不断变化，特别是美国贸易政策的影响，欧洲央行如何平衡经济支持与控制通胀之间 的关系，将决定未来几年欧元区的经济走势。虽然短期内可能会继续降息，但在中期，欧洲央行仍需谨慎评估通胀压力和经济增长之间的微妙平衡。 尽管外界普遍预计欧洲央行将在六月的会议上再次降息，这一决策背后却隐藏着不同的声音。部分欧洲央行官员认为，欧元区经济仍需外部支持，特别是面 对全球贸易摩擦可能带来的不利影响，他们认为适度的降息可以缓解经济压力，刺激经济增长。然而，也有一些官员对降息的后果持谨慎态度，特别是对未 来可能出现的通胀风险表示担忧。 荷兰央行行长Klaas Knot也对当前的全球关税政策提出警告，称这种政策对通胀构成了"相当大的挑战"。他认为，尽管短 期内欧洲的价格压力有所缓解，但从中期 ...

报 告 正 文 PMI 表现如何？ 5 月全国制造业 PMI 录得 49.5% ，升至近五年同期中位数附近，较上月上行 0.5 个百分点。 主要分项较上月多有回升，其中 供给相对需求增幅更大，外需相对内需改善更明显 ；大企业升至线上运行， 原材料价格和产成品价格稳中略降。本月制造业 PMI 上行主要来自于 供需两端的同步改善 ，而生产回暖是其 回升的最大动力， 主因中美贸易摩擦阶段性缓和 ，带动外需回暖，新出口订单低位反弹，而抢出口同步带动 生产改善 。 此外，有三点值得关注 ： 一是 从行业来看， 新动能市场需求增长较为突出 。装备制造业和高技术制造业的 新订单指数均在 52% 以上；消费品制造业需求也稳定上升，新出口订单指数上升超过 6 个百分点至扩张区间 。二是价格指数降幅显著收窄 。原材料价格和产成品价格仅较上月小幅下降 0.1 个百分点，环比降幅均较上 月明显收窄 。三是供大于求局面仍然存在 ，新订单和生产指数差距有所扩大，后续仍待稳增长政策加码提振 内需 。 制造业 PMI 线下回升 。本月全国制造业 PMI 录得 49.5% ，较上月上行 0.5 个百分点。主要分项多有回升， 生产升至线上，新订 ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Outlook - The global economy is undergoing a restructuring of the monetary system, driven by changes in trust due to shifts in international relations, leading to a gradual "de-dollarization" process [3] - The long-term bull market for gold is expected to continue, as the decline in trust among countries is unlikely to change, indicating a historical shift [3] - In the short to medium term, the U.S. dollar may face further credit decline risks, with potential upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and inflation expectations [3] Group 2: U.S. Tax Policy Risks - The new U.S. tax reduction plan presents three main risks: financing risk due to inappropriate U.S. debt supply pressure, economic risk from unfair income distribution effects, and trust risk related to unfriendly international tax policies [6] Group 3: Trade Relations and Asset Prices - Historical analysis shows that asset prices are significantly influenced by trade relations, with market sensitivity to negative signals being higher than to positive ones [7] - The performance of different asset classes varies, with stocks and currencies being more sensitive to trade signals compared to the bond market [7] Group 4: Convertible Bonds Market - The convertible bond market is expected to enter a bull market due to supply-demand mismatches, with low interest rates driving demand for attractive assets [9] - The risk of credit shocks in the convertible bond market is considered manageable, with strong support for the current convertible bond pricing [10] Group 5: IPO Market Strategy - The IPO market is set for high-quality development, with regulatory support for technology-driven companies and a steady increase in the number of IPOs expected in 2025 [16][17] - The anticipated issuance of 80 to 140 new stocks in 2025 is expected to raise approximately 94 billion yuan, with a projected average first-day increase of 150% for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [17] Group 6: Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery industry is facing intensified price competition, but healthy competition is expected to prevail, with market share likely concentrating among leading companies [18] - The resilience of leading e-commerce delivery companies is noted, with their performance remaining stable amid competitive pressures [18] Group 7: 3D DRAM Technology - The transition from 2D to 3D DRAM architecture is highlighted as a long-term trend, with significant implications for AI applications and hardware development [20] Group 8: Textile and Apparel Industry - The textile and apparel industry is expected to benefit from high-end segments and e-commerce trends, with a focus on brands that adapt to new market dynamics [22][23] Group 9: Yellow Wine Industry - The yellow wine industry is undergoing structural upgrades, with leading companies focusing on high-end product development and targeting younger consumer demographics [25]

研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 30 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 关税缓和叠加 6 月中旬报价持续小幅上涨，指数企稳回暖。目前 6 月报价较 为坚挺，昨日马士基开仓 6 月中旬报价 2100 美元并在下午涨至 2273 美元，今日 进一步小幅上涨至 2319 美元或显示需求尚可，其余多数航司报价变动不大，基本 维持前期水平，集中在 2500~3300 美元区间。美线贸易数据出现回落，主要是 5 月中旬海运进口提单和从中国发往美国集装箱船数量均明显回落，但可能是 5 月 12 日中美贸易摩擦缓和对出口的提振存在时滞、还未体现的原因，出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent tariff conflict between China and the U.S. has prompted Chinese companies, particularly in Guangdong, to adapt their strategies to mitigate risks and explore new markets as a response to the changing trade environment [1][2]. Group 1: Company Responses to Tariff Changes - Companies like Kunyan Technology in Foshan have faced significant challenges due to their heavy reliance on the North American market, which accounted for over 80% of their business. The sudden increase in tariffs led to a halt in orders, prompting the company to seek new markets and diversify its customer base [2][3]. - Kunyan Technology has successfully reduced its North American customer base to less than 50% by actively engaging with clients from Brazil, Germany, the UK, and France, thus mitigating risks associated with the tariff conflict [3]. - Shenzhen Kairun Electronics has seen a 67% drop in the export volume of digital cameras due to increased tariffs, leading the company to optimize its supply chain and explore emerging markets to counteract the impact of policy changes [4][5]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments and Innovations - Kairun Electronics is implementing strategic adjustments by enhancing contract terms to clarify delivery timelines and risk-sharing, as well as optimizing pricing mechanisms to remain competitive amidst tariff fluctuations [4][5]. - Dongguan's Wanle Toy Company has shifted its focus to domestic sales, signing a significant procurement order with JD Supermarket worth 50 million yuan, thus alleviating pressure from the U.S. market [6]. - The trend of "exporting to domestic sales" is gaining traction among companies, with many exploring local markets to reduce dependency on international trade [6]. Group 3: Global Expansion and Supply Chain Restructuring - Companies are increasingly adopting a "don't put all eggs in one basket" approach, diversifying their market presence to reduce reliance on single markets, as seen with Kunyan Technology's outreach to various countries [7][8]. - Many Guangdong enterprises are establishing manufacturing bases in countries like Mexico to minimize geopolitical risks and reduce tariff impacts while being closer to end markets [8][9]. - The shift towards global supply chain restructuring is evident, with companies considering Southeast Asia for production and sourcing opportunities [7][8]. Group 4: Brand Development and Localization - There is a growing emphasis on building strong independent brands as companies transition from pure OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) models to brand-oriented strategies, enhancing their market presence and pricing power [10][11]. - Companies are focusing on localizing their products and services to meet the preferences of different markets, which includes adapting product designs and establishing local service teams to improve customer satisfaction [11][12].