1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical risk has decreased, and the probability of a rate cut in July has decreased, but there is still uncertainty in tariff negotiations. Although OPEC+ will complete the plan to exit the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million tons ahead of schedule, the price increase in Saudi Arabia for the Asian region combined with the peak demand season will support the downside of oil prices. The implementation of the increased production has a certain lag, and once it is implemented, it will still impact the market. Short - term trading should be mainly based on short - term band operations, focusing on the WTI range of $60 - 70, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 International Crude Oil Analysis - **Price Trends**: From July 7 - 11, international oil prices fluctuated strongly. Despite uncertainties in trade frictions, peak - season demand and low inventories supported oil products. As of July 11, WTI and Brent settled at $67.93/barrel (+2.46%) and $69.78/barrel (+2.34%) respectively; INE SC settled at 512.26 yuan/barrel (+2.36%) [8]. - **Financial Aspects**: Against the backdrop of the postponement of tariff implementation and the easing of the Middle East situation, investors' risk appetite increased significantly, and the US stock market remained at a high level. As of July 11, the S&P 500 index reached 6259.75, continuing its rebound since mid - April [12]. - **Crude Oil Volatility and Dollar Index**: The crude oil ETF volatility continued to decline this week, while the dollar index rebounded. As of July 11, the crude oil volatility ETF was at 37.06, and the dollar index was at 97.87. Crude oil volatility declined with the easing of risks, and the dollar index rebounded due to the reduced expectation of a rate cut but was still under pressure overall [15]. - **Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions**: As of July 8, the net long positions of WTI management funds decreased by 28,900 contracts to 145,700 contracts, a monthly decline of 16.6%; the speculative net long positions increased by 3,600 contracts to 63,700 contracts, a monthly increase of 6%. Since July, peak - season demand has gradually supported oil prices, but the net long positions decreased due to high valuations [18]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis - **OPEC Production**: In May, OPEC's production increased by 184,000 barrels per day to 2.7022 million barrels per day. Most countries, except Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, have started to implement the production increase plan, especially Saudi Arabia. However, the increase in May of the eight countries that agreed to increase production was far lower than planned, mainly because some countries began to implement their submitted compensatory production cut plans [23]. - **OPEC+ Production Cut Situation**: According to the IEA's statistical caliber, the production of 9 OPEC member countries in May was 2.199 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 barrels per day. Iraq and the UAE still had significant over - production, but the over - production amount has started to decrease, indicating that the compensatory production cut plan may be taking effect [26]. - **Saudi and Iranian Production**: In May, Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased by 177,000 barrels per day to 9.183 million barrels per day. Iran's crude oil production decreased by 25,000 barrels per day to 3.303 million barrels per day. The impact of US sanctions on Iran may be gradually reflected in its crude oil production [30]. - **Russian Crude Oil Supply**: According to the OPEC statistical caliber, Russia's crude oil production in May was 8.984 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 barrels per day, remaining relatively stable at a low level. According to the IEA statistical caliber, its production was 9.17 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 160,000 barrels per day, presumably affected by compensatory production cuts [40]. - **US Crude Oil Rig Count**: As of the week of July 11, the number of active drilling oil wells in the US was 424, 1 less than the previous week and 54 less than the same period last year. The improvement in drilling and well efficiency allows producers to maintain record - high production while controlling capital expenditure. The rig count in the Permian region has decreased significantly, and the potential for crude oil production increase may be limited [44]. - **US Crude Oil Production**: As of the week of July 4, US crude oil production remained stable at 13.385 million barrels per day, a decrease of 48,000 barrels per day from the previous week, but a year - on - year increase of 0.64%. Although US crude oil production is at a historical high, low oil prices may dampen producers' enthusiasm and limit the growth space of US oil production [47]. 3.3 Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis - **US Total Petroleum Product Demand**: As of the week of July 4, the average daily demand for refined oil products in the US was 20.863 million barrels per day, an increase of 376,000 barrels per day from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 0.55%. The four - week average shows that US petroleum demand continues to recover in the peak season, but the recovery speed is slower than in previous years [51]. - **US Crude Oil, Gasoline, and Distillate Data**: As of July 4, US crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels per day to 13.385 million barrels per day; consumption increased by 276,000 barrels per day to 20.564 million barrels per day; refinery throughput decreased by 99,000 barrels per day to 17.006 million barrels per day; refinery utilization rate decreased by 0.2% to 94.7% [55]. - **US Gasoline, Heating Oil Crack Spreads**: As of July 11, the gasoline crack spread was $23.4 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $34.34 per barrel. The weekly demand for gasoline and heating oil increased month - on - month. The four - week average demand for gasoline was lower than in previous years, while that of heating oil was better than last year [59]. - **European Diesel, Heating Oil Crack Spreads**: As of July 11, the ICE diesel crack spread was $26.81 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $32.43 per barrel. The extremely cold weather and low temperatures had limited impact on heating oil demand, and the positive effect was weaker than in the first quarter, mainly showing a volatile trend. Diesel performed better than heating oil due to low inventories and restocking needs [63]. - **Chinese Oil Products and Refinery Situation**: In May, China's crude oil processing volume decreased by 1.406 million tons year - on - year to 59.111 million tons (-2.32%); imports decreased by 370,000 tons year - on - year to 46.6 million tons (-0.79%). Since March, state - owned refineries have reduced their purchases of Russian seaborne oil and increased procurement from alternative supplies in the Middle East, West Africa, and South America [67]. - **Institutional Forecasts of Demand Growth**: International institutions such as EIA and IEA have lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth, while OPEC maintains last month's judgment. In June, EIA, IEA, and OPEC predicted this year's global crude oil demand growth rates to be 800,000 barrels per day (down), 720,000 barrels per day (down), and 1.3 million barrels per day (unchanged) respectively. Next year's growth rates are expected to be 1.05 million barrels per day, 740,000 barrels per day, and 1.28 million barrels per day respectively [72]. 3.4 Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis - **US Crude Oil Inventory**: As of July 4, EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased significantly by 707,000 barrels to 426.02 million barrels, a year - on - year decrease of 4.29%; SPR inventories increased by 238,000 barrels to 403 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 46,400 barrels to 212,000 barrels [73]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of the four - week period ending July 4, the net import volume of US crude oil decreased by 1.358 million barrels per day to 3.256 million barrels per day. US refinery throughput decreased by 99,000 barrels per day to 17.1006 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate decreased by 0.2% to 94.7% [77]. - **WTI and Brent Month - to - Month Spreads**: As of July 11, the WTI M1 - M2 month - to - month spread was $1.41 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 spread was $4.13 per barrel. The WTI month - to - month spread maintained a back structure, and the monthly spread indicator strengthened slightly on a weekly basis. The Brent month - to - month spread also maintained a back structure, with the M1 - M2 spread at $1.2 per barrel and the M1 - M5 spread at $2.96 per barrel [81][84]. 3.5 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Difference - **Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance Table**: In July, the EIA predicted that this year's global oil supply would be 104.61 million barrels per day, and demand would be 103.54 million barrels per day, with a daily surplus of 1.07 million barrels, which continued to increase compared to last month. The EIA believes that OPEC's production increase plan and the production increase outside the group will continue to drive the strong growth of global liquid fuel production [88].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market continued to rise last week, with cyclical sectors leading the gains. The real estate, steel, and non-bank finance sectors were among the top three gainers, while coal, banking, and automotive sectors were among the top three losers. The core driver of the market was the expectation of supply-side reform and the "small essay" about the restart of shantytown renovation on the demand side, which led to a joint upward movement of cyclical and growth sectors. With the policy focusing on the supply side, the supply and demand are moving towards balance, which is beneficial for price index repair and has a positive impact on the stock market's profitability. The strong market last week was also supported by a high market risk appetite, including factors such as the non-escalation of trade friction risks, new highs in the US stock market, and positive domestic policy paths. The bullish pattern of the market is expected to continue as long as there are no unexpected negative factors. The factors that could reverse the trend may be intensified external risk disturbances or a shift in domestic policies towards structural adjustment, which need to be dynamically tracked. This week, attention should be paid to the release of domestic economic data [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: Last week, the market continued to rise, with cyclical sectors leading. The real estate, steel, and non-bank finance sectors were the top three gainers, while coal, banking, and automotive sectors were the top three losers. The market's core driver was the expectation of supply-side reform and the "small essay" about the restart of shantytown renovation on the demand side, leading to a joint upward movement of cyclical and growth sectors. The market's strength was also supported by a high market risk appetite, including factors such as the non-escalation of trade friction risks, new highs in the US stock market, and positive domestic policy paths [1]. - **Future Outlook**: Currently, although the index is at a relatively high level, the market risk appetite remains positive. Without unexpected negative factors, the bullish pattern of the market is expected to continue. The factors that could reverse the trend may be intensified external risk disturbances or a shift in domestic policies towards structural adjustment, which are difficult to predict in advance and need to be dynamically tracked. This week, attention should be paid to the release of domestic economic data [2]. - **Factors to Watch**: Domestic economy, progress of the "anti-involution" policy implementation, and expectations of the Federal Reserve's policies [3]. Strategy Recommendations - **Short-term Strategy**: For intraday trading, the 1-minute and 5-minute K-line charts can be used as a reference. The stop-loss and take-profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4]. - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips. The core operating ranges for the IF2507, IH2507, IC2507, and IM2507 contracts are expected to be between 3894 and 4095 points, 2686 and 2810 points, 5842 and 6234 points, and 6227 and 6646 points respectively [4]. - **Cross-variety Strategy**: Due to the unclear trend, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Market Data Review - **Global Stock Index Performance**: Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.02%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.31%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.08%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 index rose 1.34%, Germany's DAX index rose 1.97%, and France's CAC40 index rose 1.73%. In the Asia-Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 index fell 0.61%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.93%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09% [8]. - **Domestic Index Performance**: Since 2025, major domestic indices have all risen. Last week, all major market indices also showed an upward trend [8]. - **Industry Performance in Spot Market**: In the CSI 300 index, most industries rose last week, with the pharmaceutical, telecommunications, and industrial sectors leading the gains. In the CSI 500 index, most industries also rose, with the financial real estate, energy, and raw material sectors leading the gains [10]. - **Stock Index Futures Performance**: Last week, the IM2507 contract of stock index futures had the largest increase and the largest amplitude among the main contracts. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures both increased. The basis (futures - spot) of the main contracts of stock index futures and the cross-variety ratios also showed certain trends [12][14][20]. - **Index Valuation**: Based on weekly data, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index is 14.93 times, the CSI 300 index is 13.02 times, the SSE 50 index is 11.18 times, the CSI 500 index is 27.66 times, and the CSI 1000 index is 36.02 times [21][22]. - **Market Fundamentals**: The number of new investors in the two markets and the share of newly established equity funds showed certain trends. The capital interest rate declined last week, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the three major oils fluctuated and declined. Palm oil had the largest decline among the three major oils due to factors such as OPEC+ members agreeing to increase production, the negative impact of US tariff policies on the global economic outlook, and a bearish MPOB report. Soybean oil had a relatively small decline in the oils due to the impact of US tariff policies on increasing the cost of domestic soybean imports. In the future, as a large number of soybeans arrive at ports and the oil mill operating rate increases, the shortage of domestic soybean oil will soon be alleviated. Against the background of low - level fluctuations in crude oil, the demand outlook for palm oil as biodiesel is limited. Coupled with the current entry into the production - increasing cycle, there is a need for the price difference between palm oil and soybean oil to return, and the market may continue to fluctuate weakly [9][10]. - For the feed sector, the USDA supply - demand report this month did not make major adjustments to South America. Brazil's bumper harvest pattern is set, and the large - scale arrival of soybeans starting from April will still bring certain supply pressure to the domestic market. However, the report significantly increased the domestic soybean crushing demand in the US, which also reflects that under the current tariff policy, the import volume of US oils may decline, which is beneficial to domestic soybean oil consumption in the US. The CBOT US soybean price also rebounded after a decline. Domestically, it is currently the window period for the arrival of Brazilian soybeans. Although the Brazilian premium has remained firm under the influence of tariff policies, which supports the import cost to a certain extent, the overall arrival volume in the next few months is still large, and the domestic downstream supply is not tight in the short term. Future policy changes and domestic soybean arrival situations need to be focused on [12]. - In the pig market, the supply side is expected to remain stable in the future, with no significant changes in the slaughter volume and weight. The consumption side shows weak growth in slaughter data and synchronous growth in frozen product inventory, with large resistance in white - striped pork sales and weak consumption. It is expected that the consumption side may decline slightly in the future. Overall, there is no obvious contradiction between supply and demand in the pig market, and the price is expected to fluctuate steadily. As the delivery month approaches, the basis of near - month contracts may converge. At the current price, the probability of large - scale entry of secondary fattening is not high, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate [14]. - For the cotton market, the short - term risks of the cotton futures market have been cleared, but the macro uncertainty is still high, and the cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Domestically, the short - term supply is still abundant, and the expected cotton - planting area in the new year is expected to increase steadily. The downstream performance is still weaker than the peak - season level, and the demand is expected to weaken after April. Internationally, the April USDA report slightly increased the global cotton ending inventory, with a neutral - to - bearish overall adjustment. As the Northern Hemisphere enters the sowing season and the expectation of reduced planting in the new year of US cotton increases, attention has gradually shifted to the new - season supply, and the drought situation in the main US cotton - producing areas needs to be continuously monitored [16]. - Regarding the sugar market, short - term international sugar prices are still strongly supported, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. In the medium term, the sugar price may still be under pressure. The short - term focus is on the weather and the start of the crushing season in Brazil, as well as the weather in Guangxi and the import rhythm in China [17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Evaluation and Strategy - **Supply**: The weekly national oil mill imported soybean crushing volume was 1.0301 million tons, with a decrease in soybean crushing, and the imported rapeseed crushing was 70,000 tons, with a decrease in rapeseed crushing. The oil mill's expected operating rate this week was slightly reduced, and the crushing volume decreased. As of April 4, the actual soybean crushing volume of the oil mill was 1.0301 million tons, and the operating rate was 28.96%. The sample showed that the inventory of breeding sows in March was 5.0484 million heads, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.08%; the elimination volume of breeding sows in March was 97,826 heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.18%; the inventory of commercial pigs was 35.4457 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.27%; the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in March was 10.3928 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 17.43%. According to the Cotton Information Network, the national commercial cotton inventory at the end of March was 4.8396 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.24%, 19,800 tons lower than the same period last year, a decrease of 0.41%. As of the end of March in the 2024/25 sugar - making season, 43 sugar mills in Yunnan and 1 in Guangxi were still in production, and sugar mills in other provinces (regions) had all stopped production. The total national sugar production in this sugar - making season was 10.7479 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1748 million tons, an increase of 12.27% [9][12][15]. - **Demand**: The weekly national spot trading volume of palm oil was 5,299 tons, soybean oil was 145,000 tons, and rapeseed oil pick - up was 8,300 tons. Palm oil and soybean oil increased, while rapeseed oil decreased. The national soybean meal trading volume this week was 1.3546 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 709,000 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 270,900 tons, an average daily month - on - month increase of 141,800 tons. This week, the slaughter data of pigs showed weak growth, and the frozen product inventory also increased synchronously. The downstream performance of the cotton market was still weaker than the peak - season level, and the demand is expected to weaken after April. As of the end of March, the national cumulative sugar sales volume was 5.9958 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.64%; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 55.79%, a year - on - year acceleration of 6.33 percentage points [9][12]. - **Inventory**: The weekly port palm oil inventory increased to 373,400 tons, the oil mill soybean oil inventory decreased to 791,200 tons, and the coastal oil mill rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 127,000 tons. This week, the oil mill's inventory was 791,200 tons, a decrease of 47,900 tons from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 31,300 tons, an increase from last week. This week, the frozen product storage rate of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 17.38%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points from last week. This week, the raw material inventory of yarn mills increased slightly, and the finished - product cotton yarn inventory increased slightly; the cotton yarn inventory of weaving mills decreased slightly, and the all - cotton grey fabric inventory continued to increase. As of the end of March in the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the national monthly industrial sugar inventory was 4.7521 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86,500 tons [9][12][15]. - **Basis**: The spot basis includes North China first - grade soybean oil Y05 + 324, East China fourth - grade rapeseed oil OI05 + 95, and South China 24 - degree palm oil P05 + 266. The spot basis of soybean meal in South China is M05 - 114, and that of rapeseed meal in Fujian is RM05 + 1. The spot basis of live pigs in Henan is LH05 + 455. As of this Friday, the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang is 14,215 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 424 yuan/ton. The spot basis is CF05 + 1405, a month - on - month increase of 276. The national weighted average spot price of cotton is 14,275 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 627 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is CF05 + 1465, a month - on - month increase of 73. As of this Friday, the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 6,170 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 90 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is SR05 + 84, a month - on - month increase of 13 [9][12][15]. - **Profit**: This week, the import profit of Malaysian palm oil for April shipments was - 699 yuan/ton. This week, the on - paper gross profit of Brazilian soybeans for May shipments was 265 (with a premium of 175), and the on - paper crushing gross profit of Canadian rapeseed for May shipments was 284. As of April 10, the self - breeding and self - raising profit this week was 129.30 yuan/head, a decrease of 2.67 yuan/head from last week, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 65.80 yuan/head, a loss of 39.06 yuan/head compared with last week. As of April 10, the national immediate spinning profit of 32s pure - cotton ring - spun yarn was - 297.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 723.1 yuan/ton from last week. On April 11, the sales profit of white sugar produced from imported Brazilian raw sugar in China was about 1,665 yuan/ton (within the tariff quota) or 294 yuan/ton (outside the tariff quota); the sales profit of white sugar produced from imported Thai raw sugar was about 1,782 yuan/ton (within the tariff quota) or 450 yuan/ton (outside the tariff quota) [9][12][15]. - **Cost**: According to the data released by the shipping survey agency SGS, it is estimated that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from April 1 to 10 was 211,252 tons, a decrease of 6.63% compared with the export volume of 226,247 tons in the same period last month. The MPOB data showed that the Malaysian palm oil production in March was 1,387,193 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.76%, higher than the Reuters' expectation of 1.31 million tons; the palm oil import was 121,886 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82.51%; the palm oil export was 1,005,547 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.91%, lower than the Reuters' expectation of 1.02 million tons; the palm oil inventory was 1,562,586 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%, higher than the Reuters' expectation of 1.56 million tons. This week, the price of US soybeans fluctuated steadily. As of April 10, the closing price of US soybeans was 1,035.50 cents per bushel. As of April 10, the average cost of secondary fattening this week was 14.40 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg from last week; the pig - to - grain ratio was 6.46:1. The Cotlook:A index: 1% tariff price was reported at 13,825 yuan/ton, and the China Cotton Price Index: 328 was reported at 14,275 yuan/ton, with an internal - external cotton price difference of 450 yuan/ton. On April 11, the processed cost of imported Brazilian raw sugar (with a premium of 0.69) in China was about 4,884 yuan/ton (within the tariff quota) or 6,255 yuan/ton (outside the tariff quota); the processed cost of imported Thai raw sugar (with a premium of 0.88) was about 4,765 yuan/ton (within the tariff quota) or 6,099 yuan/ton (outside the tariff quota) [9][12][15]. 3.2 Oilseeds Sector Supply and Demand - **Palm Oil**: Analyzed the basis, monthly spread, import cost, and profit of palm oil, as well as the supply and demand data of GAPKI and MPOB palm oil, and the direct import volume of China's three major oils, domestic oil mill crushing, production, and inventory [23][56][59]. - **Soybean Oil**: Analyzed the basis, monthly spread, import cost, and profit of soybean oil [37][41]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Analyzed the basis, spread, import cost, and profit of rapeseed oil, as well as the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil, and between soybean oil and rapeseed oil in Guangdong [47][53]. 3.3 Feed Sector Supply and Demand - Analyzed the basis, monthly spread, price difference, and profit of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the import volume of oilseeds and meal, domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal production, and inventory [72][88][91]. 3.4 Pig Sector Supply and Demand - Analyzed the basis, monthly spread, monthly supply and demand, weekly profit, and weekly pig - to - grain ratio of live pigs [100][107][110]. 3.5 Cotton Sector Supply and Demand - Analyzed the basis, monthly spread, supply and demand (including import volume, industrial inventory, commercial inventory, factory load, inventory, and retail and export data), and global and regional supply and demand of cotton [122][129][151]. 3.6 Sugar Sector Supply and Demand - Analyzed the price, basis, and supply and demand (including domestic and international production, inventory, import, and export data) of sugar [161][167][169].

Group 1 - The European Parliament passed a resolution condemning China's restrictions on rare earth exports, highlighting China's "quasi-monopoly" in the sector and its significant market influence [1] - The resolution received overwhelming support with 523 votes in favor, 75 against, and 14 abstentions, indicating strong political consensus in Europe against China's trade practices [1] Group 2 - China's EU delegation expressed strong dissatisfaction and urged the European Parliament to refrain from politicizing trade and economic issues, advocating for a rational and pragmatic approach to cooperation [4] - Since May 13, the U.S. has adopted a tough stance on China's rare earth issues, with some progress in negotiations, but U.S. rare earth magnet manufacturers still face low approval rates for exports [4] - Europe has begun to emulate U.S. strategies, initiating investigations into Chinese electric vehicles and banning Chinese companies from participating in EU public procurement projects exceeding 5 million euros [5] Group 3 - China has responded to European pressure with countermeasures, including new policies that exclude EU companies from participating in government procurement for medical devices over 45 million yuan [5] - The article suggests that Europe misjudges its position in the trade conflict, believing it can pressure China without facing repercussions, which may lead to strategic miscalculations [5][7] Group 4 - Both Europe and China share similar positions regarding the rare earth issue, with China's export restrictions seen as a strategic response to U.S. and European sanctions on its high-tech sectors [11] - China's advancements in rare earth processing technology have allowed it to achieve high purity levels and efficiency, reinforcing its dominant position in the market [11] Group 5 - The article references past conflicts, such as the 2010 rare earth dispute between China and Japan, to illustrate the cyclical nature of trade tensions and the potential for retaliatory measures [12] - It emphasizes that while Europe expresses frustration, it must demonstrate genuine commitment and financial investment to achieve fair trade with China [14]

Group 1 - Current gold market is experiencing a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and a rebound in the US dollar, with gold trading around $3327.68 per ounce [1] - Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports from Brazil has raised concerns about escalating global trade tensions, providing support for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset [1][3] - Unexpected decline in US initial jobless claims to 227,000 has pushed the dollar index to a two-week high of 97.92, which has suppressed gold demand priced in dollars [1] Group 2 - The implementation of tariffs may increase commodity prices, potentially exacerbating inflationary pressures, which presents both opportunities and challenges for gold [3] - Rising inflation expectations could enhance gold's appeal as an inflation hedge, but the strengthening dollar and rising US Treasury yields may offset this benefit [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the tariff policy complicates the inflation outlook, and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance may continue to limit gold's upward potential [4] Group 3 - The gold market is influenced by multiple factors, including Trump's tariff policy providing safe-haven support, while the strong dollar and rising Treasury yields restrict price increases [4] - Short-term gold prices are likely to remain within the current range unless there is a significant escalation in geopolitical or trade tensions [4] - Investors should closely monitor the upcoming CPI data on July 15 and the Federal Reserve's policy direction, as these factors will provide clearer guidance for future gold price movements [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the increasing interest in gold as a safe-haven asset amid global market volatility and geopolitical tensions, with significant inflows into gold ETFs [1][3][5] - As of June 30, the gold ETF (159937) reached a scale of 27.9 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 12.9 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, reflecting an 86% growth [3] - The gold ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past five days, totaling 187 million yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 37.43 million yuan [6] Group 2 - Spot gold prices have fluctuated, recently surpassing the 3,300 USD mark, currently trading at 3,330.75 USD per ounce, with a daily high of 3,336 USD [2][4] - The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which could further support gold prices, although there are internal divisions within the Fed regarding the timing and extent of such cuts [3][5] - The ongoing trade tensions, including new tariffs announced by the U.S. on imports from Canada and Brazil, are expected to increase inflationary pressures, thereby enhancing gold's role as a hedge against macroeconomic instability [4][5] Group 3 - The gold ETF and its linked funds provide a low-cost and accessible way for investors to participate in gold investments, with features such as T+0 trading [6] - The recent geopolitical risks and the actions of emerging market central banks in accumulating gold have provided additional support for gold prices [5] - Analysts suggest that while the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, short-term price movements may be more influenced by U.S. macroeconomic data and increased market volatility [5][6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-11 初申失业金人数下降，金价上行受阻 ⾦价连续第⼆天上涨，⽬前维持在3300美元以上，但整体多头动能不⾜。 美元⾛软、美国国债收益率下滑以及市场对美联储降息的押注，为⾦价提 供⽀撑。 重点资讯： 1）美国总统特朗普周三向七个小型贸易伙伴发出了最终关税通知， 与此同时，美国政府与其最大贸易伙伴欧盟距离达成协议更近一步。 2）布鲁塞尔正在与美国方面讨论一系列措施，旨在保护欧盟汽车产 业免受美国高额进口关税的影响。这些措施包括削减关税、设定进口 配额，以及对欧盟汽车制造商对美出口提供抵免。 3）俄罗斯国防部称："俄罗斯联邦武装部队使用高精度远程武器和 无人机对基辅的军工企业和军用机场基础设施实施了集群打击。" 4）美国至7月5日当周初请失业金人数 22.7万人，预期23.5万人， 前值由23.3万人修正为23.2万人。 价格逻辑： 金价连续第二天上涨，目前维持在3300美元以上，但整体多头动能不 足。美元走软、美国国债收益率下滑以及市场对美联储降息的押注， 为金价提供支撑。同时，全球贸易紧张局势也推动投资者涌入黄金这 一避 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - US stocks - Overweight [34] - European stocks - Overweight [35] - Chinese A - shares - Equal - weight [36] - Hong Kong stocks - Underweight [37] - Japanese stocks - Equal - weight [38] - Indian market - Overweight [39] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June 2025, different financial markets showed diverse trends, influenced by factors such as economic data, central bank policies, and trade relations. Stock markets had varying performances, with some reaching new highs. Bond markets were affected by economic and geopolitical events. The foreign exchange market was driven by interest rate expectations and trade policies. Commodity prices fluctuated due to supply - demand dynamics and geopolitical tensions. The report also provided investment ratings and reasons for different markets and selected funds based on specific criteria [34][56][64] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance Data - **Stock Markets**: In June 2025, the Nasdaq 100 index had a monthly increase of 6.27% and a YTD increase of 7.93%, while the European Stoxx 50 index decreased by 1.18% monthly but had an 8.32% YTD increase. The Hang Seng Index rose 3.36% in June and 20.00% YTD [1] - **Bond Markets**: The Bloomberg US Corporate High - Yield Bond Index increased 1.84% monthly and 4.57% YTD, while the Bloomberg European Aggregate Total Return Index decreased 0.09% monthly and had a 0.84% YTD increase [2] - **Commodity Markets**: Gold prices (in dollars per ounce) increased 0.42% monthly and 25.86% YTD, and New York crude oil futures (in dollars per barrel) increased 7.11% monthly but decreased 9.22% YTD [4] - **Foreign Exchange Markets**: The US dollar index decreased 2.47% monthly and 10.70% YTD, while the euro/dollar increased 3.88% monthly and 13.84% YTD [5] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis US Macroeconomy - **Employment**: In June, the US added 147,000 non - farm jobs, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. However, the growth mainly came from the government sector, and the actual employment pressure remained [9] - **Inflation**: In May, the US CPI increased 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased 2.8% year - on - year. Some categories affected by import tariffs had significant price increases [11] - **Retail Sales**: In May, US retail sales decreased 0.9% month - on - month, mainly due to the decline in automobile and gasoline sales [16] - **Services PMI**: In June, the US ISM Services PMI was 50.8, back in the expansion zone, while the S&P Global Services PMI was 52.9, showing differences between SMEs and large enterprises [18] Chinese Macroeconomy - **Consumption**: In May, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased 6.4% year - on - year, with significant growth in some categories due to promotional activities and policies [21] - **Real Estate**: In May, housing prices in Chinese cities showed a pattern of month - on - month decline and year - on - year narrowing of the decline [21] - **CPI and PPI**: In May, China's CPI decreased 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased 3.3% year - on - year, with different trends in different industries [21][23] - **Imports and Exports**: In May, China's exports increased 4.8% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports decreased 3.4% year - on - year, with different performances in trade with different regions [23] - **PMI**: In June, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, and the composite PMI output index was 50.7%, indicating continued improvement in the economic climate [23] Central Bank Policies - **Canada**: On June 4, the Bank of Canada kept the key interest rate at 2.75%, waiting for clearer signals on trade conflicts [25] - **Europe**: On June 5, the European Central Bank cut the three key interest rates by 25 basis points, further releasing a loose monetary policy signal [25] - **Japan**: On June 17, the Bank of Japan kept the target interest rate at 0.5% and planned to reduce the scale of Japanese government bond purchases [25] - **US**: On June 18, the Fed kept the federal funds rate at 4.25 - 4.5%, with more officials cautious about interest rate cuts [27] - **UK**: On June 19, the Bank of England kept the policy rate at 4.25%, with more members worried about economic weakness [27] - **Switzerland**: On June 19, the Swiss National Bank cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 0%, dealing with low inflation pressure [27] 3. Market Review and Outlook Stock Markets - **US Stocks**: In June, US stocks generally rose, with the S&P 500 hitting a new high. The reasons for the upgrade to overweight include trade friction mitigation, positive economic data, low inflation, and the irreplaceability of US stocks [34] - **European Stocks**: In June, European stocks were sluggish, but the market expected a trade agreement between the US and Europe. The reasons for maintaining the overweight rating include government fiscal spending, central bank interest rate cuts, and the attractiveness of European stocks as a diversification alternative [35] - **Chinese A - shares**: The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high in June. The reasons for the upgrade to equal - weight include progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, signs of economic bottoming, low capital costs, and expectations for the Politburo meeting [36] - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index exceeded 24,000 in June, but the Hang Seng Tech Index underperformed. The reasons for the downgrade to underweight include intensified competition in the Internet industry, a slowdown in new consumption, and a shortage of high - quality assets [37] - **Japanese Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 index exceeded 40,000 in June. The reasons for maintaining the equal - weight rating include the stalemate in US - Japan trade negotiations, corporate governance optimization, and Japan's exit from deflation [38] - **Indian Market**: The Indian stock market hit a new high in June. The reasons for maintaining the overweight rating include high - speed economic growth, the potential to benefit from manufacturing transfer, and a reasonable valuation considering growth [39] Bond Markets - **Primary Market**: In June 2025, 89 bonds were issued in the primary market of Chinese overseas bonds, including 46 US dollar bonds and 26 offshore RMB bonds. The issuance scale of US dollar bonds recovered, and the issuance of dim - sum bonds increased [44] - **Secondary Market**: As of June 30, 2025, the Markit iBoxx Chinese US dollar investment - grade bond index rose 0.89%, and the high - yield bond index rose 1.11% [47] Foreign Exchange Market - In June, the US dollar index declined for the sixth consecutive month, and the euro was strong. The RMB rose against the US dollar but had a lower increase compared to other major currencies [61] Commodity Market - Gold prices fluctuated at a high level, with short - term adjustment needs but long - term support. Crude oil prices rose first and then fell, with a significant discount indicating concerns about supply surplus. Iron ore prices dropped due to the weak real estate market and supply - side reform expectations [64] 4. Selected Funds - The report selected funds based on different criteria for different types of funds, including historical performance, expense ratio, and risk. For example, the Taikang Kaitai Hong Kong Dollar Money Fund was selected as a money - market fund, and the Invesco Global High - Grade Corporate Bond Fund USD Acc was selected as an investment - grade bond fund [66]

在全球金融市场聚焦于美国与其贸易伙伴之间不断升温的谈判局势之际，黄金价格在周三表现出罕见的 韧性。尽管美元指数持续高企，给贵金属市场带来抑制作用，但黄金仍小幅走高，现货金交投于每盎司 3318美元附近，反映出避险资金仍在悄然流入。这种表现不禁引发一个疑问：美元强势的背景下，黄金 缘何没有进一步下挫？ DLSMARKETS从当前局势看，黄金之所以没有被美元的压力完全压制，背后是多重情绪交织的结果。 一方面，美国总统特朗普再度向七个主要贸易伙伴发出关税信函，强化"8月1日关税生效"这一时间表， 使得全球贸易紧张氛围再度升温。尽管市场已部分"习惯"其反复横跳的谈判策略，但多国表态强硬，尤 其是巴西明确提出将依据本国法律对美关税行为进行报复，贸易摩擦的反复和加剧始终为避险情绪提供 支撑。此时，即便美元走强，黄金作为对冲工具的吸引力也并未完全丧失。 另一方面，美联储会议纪要虽未明确释放降息信号，但从措辞来看，仍保留了政策灵活性的空间。特别 是在关税政策或对中长期通胀构成扰动的背景下，部分官员已提出预期内的风险情景，这使得市场对未 来政策路径的分歧再度扩大。不少资金因此更愿意通过增配黄金来防范政策误判或滞后所带来的资产波 ...

Group 1: Silver Futures Market Performance - On July 10, the main silver futures in Shanghai reported a price of 8887 yuan per gram, with a decline of 0.13% [1] - The opening price for the day was 8880 yuan per gram, with a maximum of 8911 yuan per gram and a minimum of 8856 yuan per gram [1] Group 2: Macro News - President Trump announced that the U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1, which will impact industries reliant on this metal, including automotive, housing, and appliances [2] - Copper is the third most consumed metal globally, with nearly half of U.S. consumption coming from imports, primarily from Chile [2] - This tariff is part of a series of tariffs aimed at promoting domestic mining and metal processing, following previous increases in steel and aluminum tariffs [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Guoxin Futures noted that precious metals are experiencing mixed fluctuations, with New York gold futures rising by 0.1% to $3321 per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures increased by 0.19% to 771.02 yuan per gram [3] - New York silver futures fell by 11.9 cents to $36.63 per ounce, and Shanghai silver dropped by 0.33% to 8870 yuan per kilogram [3] - The outlook for precious metals suggests continued fluctuations, with key support levels for gold at around $3300 per ounce and silver at $36.5 per ounce, influenced by deepening trade tensions and geopolitical disturbances [3]