Group 1: Glass and Soda Ash - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The market sentiment for glass and soda ash is pessimistic, with both showing an oscillating downward trend. Glass production is decreasing, but due to insufficient demand recovery in the real - estate and deep - processing sectors, inventory is piling up. Soda ash production has declined due to increased plant maintenance, but the supply remains abundant, and the demand improvement space is limited [1] - Market analysis - Glass: The glass futures market oscillated downward yesterday, with strong pessimism. In the spot market, the Shahe market was weak, the East China market had a narrow - range adjustment, the Central China market's prices were weak, the South China market's prices were stable for now, and the Northeast market remained unchanged. Overall, the shipment was average, mainly for external sales [1] - Soda ash: The soda ash futures market oscillated weakly yesterday. In the spot market, the domestic soda ash market was stable with oscillations, and the transaction prices were flexible. The daily production of soda ash decreased, with an operating rate of 75.45% [1] - Supply - demand and logic - Glass: Recently, glass production has been on a downward trend. However, due to insufficient demand recovery in the real - estate and deep - processing sectors, the replenishment intensity and sustainability are weak, leading to obvious inventory accumulation. The high - temperature and rainy season is unfavorable for glass storage, and enterprises may have a stronger intention to reduce prices for inventory clearance [1] - Soda ash: Affected by increased plant maintenance, soda ash production has declined recently but remains in a loose state. Currently, the growth of the photovoltaic industry has slowed down, the demand improvement space for soda ash is limited, and the inventory clearance pressure is still large [1] - Strategy - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] Group 2: Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The market for silicomanganese and ferrosilicon is sluggish, with continuous increases in maintenance. The production of both is affected by industry profits and is at a low level, but the demand has certain resilience. The high inventory of silicomanganese manufacturers suppresses prices, while the low - level manganese ore port inventory supports the alloy cost. The ferrosilicon price is currently dragged down by costs [3] - Market analysis - Silicomanganese: The market expectation has been weak recently. A large - scale silicomanganese enterprise in Chongqing decided to shut down 2 furnaces for maintenance. The daily average production of silicomanganese this week was 22,065 tons, with a theoretical weekly production of 154,455 tons. The silicomanganese futures market oscillated strongly. In the spot market, the silicomanganese market oscillated, with few quotes. The price in the northern market was 5,600 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5,650 - 5,750 yuan/ton [3] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures market followed the black - goods sector, rising and then falling. In the spot market, the ferrosilicon market was weak, and most operations were cautious. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,900 - 5,950 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand and logic - Silicomanganese: Affected by industry profits, silicomanganese production continues to decline and is at a low level over the years. The high pig - iron production maintains the demand for silicomanganese. The high inventory of silicomanganese manufacturers and registered warrants suppresses the price. However, the low - level manganese ore port inventory and the continuous decline in manganese ore prices support the alloy cost. Future attention should be paid to the supply side of manganese ore [3] - Ferrosilicon: In the context of enterprise losses, ferrosilicon production remains at a medium - low level. The high pig - iron production maintains the demand for ferrosilicon. The manufacturers' inventory is continuously decreasing, and the downstream enterprises' inventory is at a low level. The ferrosilicon production capacity is relatively abundant, and the short - term price is dragged down by costs. Future attention should be paid to the impact of electricity price changes and industrial policies on the black - goods sector [3] - Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [4]

2025年05月14日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：月差正套，加工费扩张 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：需求预期好转，月差持续走强 | 2 | | MEG：装置意外停车检修，大幅上行 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：偏强运行 | 7 | | 沥青：原油反弹，偏强震荡 | 9 | | LLDPE：短期偏强，中期震荡 | 11 | | PP：价格小涨，成交一般 | 13 | | 烧碱：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 14 | | 纸浆：震荡偏强 | 16 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 18 | | 甲醇：宏观情绪好转，短期震荡运行 | 19 | | 尿素：出口政策较为温和，中期进入震荡格局 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：市场情绪修复，盘面跟随上涨 | 24 | | 燃料油：日盘高开，短期或偏强震荡 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘大幅转强，外盘高低硫价差继续走弱 | 27 | | 集运指数（欧线）：短期偏强，6-8反套、10-12反套持有 | 28 | | 短纤：预期好转震荡偏强，多PF空PR ...

从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 有色金属日报 2025-5-13 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 中美贸易谈判取得进展，关税大幅降低，权益市场走强，贵金属走弱，铜价冲高后有所回落，昨日伦 铜收涨 0.67%至 9502 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 77820 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存减少 10253 至 190750 吨，注销仓单比例下滑至 43.1%，Cash/3M 升水 23.9 美元/吨。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **LPG**: The supply from the US is expected to decrease in mid - late May as the tariff grace period for "in - transit goods" ends, while the Middle East will maintain high output. China's demand may decline due to high tariffs, and India's demand is expected to increase. The EIA inventory has risen, and the price shows a pattern of FEI with butane stronger than propane and May CP with propane stronger than butane. After May 13th, the US exports to China may significantly decrease, and the future situation in Japan and India needs further attention [10]. - **Methanol**: The supply, including domestic production, imports, and traditional downstream, is under pressure. The demand from downstream and olefins is weakening. The inventory situation shows that the support of low inventory for the basis is weakening. The price structure is weak, and the overall pattern of methanol is bearish. It is recommended to short on rebounds, and the price above 2300 points in the long - term is under pressure [56]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply of PP and PE has support from coal - chemical summer maintenance, but the demand is weakening as it enters the off - season. The inventory, cost, and price structure show certain characteristics. Affected by oil prices and tariff policies, the market sentiment is poor, and the polyolefin market is expected to run weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [124]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LPG - **Supply** - **US**: The "in - transit goods" tariff exemption is about to end, and the output will gradually decrease in mid - late May, with the export focus shifting to other regions [10][14]. - **Middle East**: It is expected to maintain a strong output pattern to China and India in May [10][22]. - **Demand** - **Asia**: South Korea's demand is poor, and Japan will receive a large amount of US LPG in May [29]. - **China and India**: The arrival volume of US LPG will decrease in mid - late May, and India is turning to the US to purchase cheaper propane [35]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of May 2, the US propane and propylene inventory level has risen for the third consecutive week, and the production has slightly decreased but is still higher than the same period in previous years [10]. - **Price and Structure** - **Price**: As of May 8, FEI propane prices were stable, and butane prices were relatively strong. The May CP price of propane decreased by 5 dollars/ton, and butane decreased by 15 dollars/ton [10]. - **Structure**: The FEI - MOPJ spread widened, and the CP propylene - butane spread widened, reflecting China's attempt to find alternative supplies [10]. Methanol - **Supply** - **Domestic**: Short - term maintenance is rare, and the high - level supply pressure will be maintained. The weekly average output in late May is expected to slightly decrease to the range of 95 - 100 tons [56]. - **Import**: The arrival is increasing, and the pressure of import recovery will gradually appear in May. The overseas overall start - up has slightly declined [56]. - **Traditional**: The start - up of formaldehyde and acetic acid is at a high level, but the start - up of MTBE continues to decline [56]. - **Demand** - **Downstream**: The olefin load has decreased due to coal - chemical maintenance. As of May 8, the MTO start - up rate was 75.99% (- 2.08%) [56]. - **Inland**: The inland market has entered the off - season with low inventory [56]. - **Inventory** - **Inland**: As of May 7, the sample inventory of inland production enterprises was 30.39 tons (+ 2.06), and the pending orders were 23.78 tons (- 1.19) [56]. - **Port**: As of May 9, the total inventory was 61.9 tons (+ 0.1), and the negotiable inventory was 21.2 tons (- 1.2). The support of low inventory for the basis is weakening [56]. - **Price and Structure** - **Basis and Spread**: The near - end basis in East China is around 09 + 150/160, and the spread MA9 - 1 = - 63 ( + 2 compared with before the holiday) [56]. - **PP - 3MA**: As of May 9, 09MTO = 286 ( + 6 compared with before the holiday), and the spread trend is difficult to predict [56]. Polyolefins - **Supply**: The start - up rates of PP and PE are 80.2% (+ 3.9%) and 79.2% (- 1.95%) respectively as of May 8. There is support from coal - chemical summer maintenance, and attention should be paid to the PDH start - up and the impact of tariff policies on PE imports from the US [124]. - **Demand**: The start - up of PP downstream industries has seasonally declined, and the start - up of PE downstream industries has also weakened, with the industry entering the off - season [124]. - **Inventory**: As of May 9, the inventory of the two major oil companies was 79 tons (- 1.5), and attention should be paid to the inventory depletion speed after the holiday [124]. - **Cost**: The oil price performance is poor, and the support for polyolefin valuation is limited [124]. - **Price and Structure** - **Basis and Spread**: The PP9 - 1 = 81 yuan/ton ( + 23 compared with before the holiday), and L9 - 1 = 65 yuan/ton ( + 4 compared with before the holiday) [124]. - **PP - L**: As of May 9, 09PP - L = - 9 yuan/ton ( + 33 compared with before the holiday), and the spread is dominated by the difference in the fluctuation range of the two varieties [124].

上周受渤化等装置提负影响，PVC产能利用率环比+0.70%至79.33%。上周管材开工率环比+1.05%至 48.34%，型材开工率环比-6.5%至34.15%。 截至5月8日，PVC社会库存新（41家）样本统计环比减少0.41%至65.10万吨，对外出口集中交付依旧带 动市场库存去化。 5月8日PVC常州市场价4660元/吨（-40），主力基差-179元/吨(+3），广州市场价4790元/吨（0），杭州 市场价4730元/吨（-40）。 机构观点汇总： 截至2025年5月9日当周，PVC期货主力合约收于4805元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周增持182689 手。 本周（5月6日-5月9日）市场上看，PVC期货周内开盘报4930元/吨，最高触及4960元/吨，最低下探至 4800元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-2.54%。 消息面回顾： 中辉期货：供给端，1月新增新浦化学50万吨装置投产。供给端高位承压，产能利用率为79%。需求 端，房地产竣工面积降幅收窄，下游开工率季节性下降。出口方面，2025年1-3月PVC累计出口98万 吨，累计同比+56%，5月台塑报价环比持平。综上，开工继续上行，上游累库，仓单持续注册， ...

期货热点追踪 炎热干燥的天气威胁小麦生产，中国罕见大量进口小麦，市场供需将有何变化？ 相关链接 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride are all forecasted to have an oscillatory trend [1][3][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices rose significantly. OPEC's oil production in April may have slightly decreased due to the US's attempt to curb oil flow, leading to reduced supply from Venezuela, Iraq, and Libya. The US's expanded sanctions have increased market concerns and caused oil prices to rebound. The oil market will continue to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. Singapore and Fujeirah's fuel oil inventories decreased. The reduction in East - West arbitrage arrivals in May will support the low - sulfur market in the short term. High - sulfur fuel oil is also supported by the expected improvement in Middle Eastern summer power generation demand, but low raw material procurement demand will still pressure the market [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises decreased, while the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt increased. With the improvement of processing profits, supply is expected to increase. The issuance of special bonds is expected to accelerate, and terminal demand is supported, but attention should be paid to the pressure brought by increased supply [3]. - **Polyester**: PTA, EG, and PX futures prices rose on Thursday. PTA's load decreased and then is expected to rise. The overall ethylene glycol start - up load increased. Some MEG devices restarted or plan to shut down. The production and sales of polyester yarn in the Yangtze River Delta are weak. The prices of PX and PTA will follow cost fluctuations, and ethylene glycol is relatively resistant to decline [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. The start - up loads of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased. The rubber market fundamentals are weak, but the delayed rubber tapping in Thailand will support prices in the short term [6]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol prices showed certain trends. In May, domestic supply is expected to increase, while demand will remain relatively stable, and price support will weaken [6]. - **Polyolefin**: On Thursday, the average national price of polypropylene (PP) was reported, and the prices of polyethylene (PE) in different regions decreased. Supply is expected to decline due to refinery maintenance, but demand will enter the off - season, and the decline in inventory will slow down. Polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China decreased. The real estate construction off - season will drag down the demand for PVC downstream products, and exports may decline. In May, the PVC market fundamentals are loose, and prices are expected to remain low and fluctuate [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on May 8th and 9th, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantiles [8]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC's oil production in April may have slightly decreased, despite the relaxation of voluntary production cuts. The organization plans to accelerate production increases in May and June, but the impact of the US's restrictions on Iran and Venezuela remains uncertain. Kazakhstan has no plan to cut crude oil and condensate production in May [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][14][17]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis charts of main contracts such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are provided, showing the basis trends over the years [28][32][33]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows the spread charts of different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, and other products, such as the spreads between 05 - 09 and 09 - 01 contracts of fuel oil [44][45][46]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The spread charts between different varieties are presented, including the spreads between domestic and foreign crude oil, B - W spreads of crude oil, and the spreads between fuel oil and asphalt [60][64][65]. - **Production Profits**: The production profit charts of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are provided [68][69][72]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [74][75][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and shipping. Different commodities face different supply - demand situations and market factors, leading to diverse trading outlooks [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: Prices oscillated. Supply of copper ore remained tight, and domestic inventories decreased weekly. Short - term trading should adopt an oscillatory approach [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2506 contract price declined. Supply was expected to be in surplus in the long - run, and 5 - month consumption was pessimistic. If domestic demand was insufficient, prices might fall further, but short - term support came from low inventories [1]. - **Lead**: The 2506 contract price rose. Supply was affected by raw material shortages and low production enthusiasm. Demand was weak, and post - holiday inventory accumulation was likely. Buying on dips after price drops was advisable [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 2506 contract price increased. Supply was expected to increase with some restarts, and demand was weak. Short - selling on rebounds was recommended [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2507 contract price rose. Supply decreased, and demand was mixed. Futures prices were expected to oscillate downward, and holding short positions or waiting was recommended [1][2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The PS2506 contract price fluctuated. Bulls and bears were in a tug - of war, and waiting was recommended [2]. - **Tin**: Prices were strong. Market risk preference was boosted, and short - term trading should be based on an oscillatory view [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract price fell. Supply and demand were both weak, and inventory pressure was low due to low production. Short positions should be held [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract price declined. Near - term supply - demand was neutral - strong, but medium - term surplus was expected. Short positions in the 2509 contract could be attempted [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract price decreased. Supply - demand was relatively loose, and waiting was recommended [3][4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans were expected to oscillate, and domestic soybeans were short - term bearish and medium - term followed the international market. Trade policies and sowing areas should be monitored [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract price oscillated. Supply - demand tightened, and prices were expected to rise. Buying on dips was recommended [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract price rose. Brazil's new season was expected to be productive, and domestic prices were expected to fall with a smaller margin. A bearish trading approach was recommended [5]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Zhengzhou cotton prices also declined. Selling on rallies was recommended [5]. - **Log**: The 07 contract price dropped. Supply was strong, demand was weak, and waiting was recommended [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices rose. Supply was seasonally increasing, and demand improved. It was in a seasonal weak phase, and production and policies should be monitored [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract price oscillated. Supply was high, and prices were expected to decline [6]. - **Pigs**: The 2509 contract price oscillated. Supply was increasing, and prices were expected to decline with resistance [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract price fell. Supply was increasing, and demand was expected to decline. Short - term and long - term short - selling on rallies were recommended [7]. - **PVC**: The V09 contract price declined. Supply was large, and exports cooled. After the contract returned to a high premium, hedging was recommended [7]. - **PTA**: PX supply decreased, and PTA short - term pressure eased. Positive spreads should be held, and short - selling on far - month rebounds was recommended [8]. - **Glass**: The FG09 contract price fell. Supply was increasing, and inventory was accumulating. Prices were expected to continue falling [8]. - **PP**: The main contract price fell. Supply was rising, and demand was expected to weaken due to tariffs. Short - term prices were expected to oscillate downward [8]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure increased, and demand was weak. Short - term waiting was recommended, and cost support should be monitored [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices rebounded. Short - term prices were expected to oscillate, and the Brent price range was $55 - 65 per barrel [8][9]. - **Styrene**: Supply was expected to accumulate slightly, and demand was affected by tariffs. Prices were expected to follow the cost of pure benzene and oscillate downward [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract price fell. Supply was high, and inventory was difficult to digest. Prices were expected to oscillate, and selling out - of - the - money call options at 1500 was recommended [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The sh09 contract price fell. Inventory decreased, and prices were expected to stop falling and stabilize [9]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The main contract price fell. Supply was affected by tariff policies, and demand was mixed. Unilateral trading should wait, and a light - position long spread for 8 - 10 months could be tried [10].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价重心回落，其中 WTI 6 月合约收盘下跌 1.02 美元至 58.07 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.73%。布伦特 7 月合约收盘下跌 1.03 美元至 61.12 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.66%。SC2506 以 459 元/桶收盘，下跌 7.1 元/桶， | | | | 跌幅 1.52%。美联储周三维持利率不变，但指出通胀和失业率上升 | | | | 的风险增加，在联储努力评估关税政策的影响之际，这进一步令 | | | | 经济前景蒙阴。FOMC 表示，经济前景的不确定性进一步增加。 | | | | 在这次会议上，决策者们一致同意将指标利率目标区间维持在 | | | | 4.25%-4.50%不变。EIA 公布的库存报告显示，截至 5 月 2 日当 | | | 原油 | 周，美国商业原油库存减少 200 万桶，至 4.384 亿桶，此前市场预 | 震荡 | | | 期为减少 80 万桶。截至 5 月 2 日 ...

Report 1: Zinc Futures Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc - Bearish outlook [1] 2. Core View - Tariff impact is temporarily receding, short - term supply is changing from tight to loose, and in the medium - to - long - term, there is an overall surplus, so it should be viewed bearishly [3] 3. Summary by Directory Macro & Industry News - Due to the trade war, Teck is considering other export options for its US concentrates. After China imposed a new round of retaliatory tariffs on US goods, Teck's lead - zinc concentrates from the Red Dog mine in Alaska became a "victim" of the Sino - US trade conflict. The company's business team is evaluating various solutions [1] Supply - Mining enterprise profits are affected by tariff policies, with single - ton profits shrinking from over 6,000 to around 4,000. However, TC prices have not declined, indicating no production cuts at the mine end. The supply side is generally becoming looser, and the possibility of production cuts for both pure smelting and integrated enterprises is extremely low [2] Demand - The peak demand season of "Golden March and Silver April" is coming to an end. Galvanizing shows low capacity utilization and production, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is low. The demand for zinc ingots is expected to decline in the short term. In the die - casting alloy and zinc oxide markets, demand is weak [3] Conclusion - Tariff impact is temporarily receding, short - term supply is changing from tight to loose, and in the medium - to - long - term, there is an overall surplus, so it should be viewed bearishly [3] Operation Suggestion - Wait for an opportunity to short; if there is no rebound, the downside space is limited [4] Report 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Nickel - Short after a rebound; Stainless steel - Hold [5] 2. Core View - Although the Sino - US trade concerns remain, market sentiment has eased. Nickel prices have rebounded in the short term, but the fundamental trend of surplus remains unchanged. The support from the mine end is not sustainable [6] 3. Summary by Directory Macro & Industry News - In the first week of May 2025, the price of 1.6% grade nickel ore (CIF) increased by $1.1 per metric ton, while the price of 1.2% grade nickel ore (CIF) remained stable. Some processed product prices declined [5] Supply - Indonesia has increased mining royalties, and the price at the mine end is firm. The probability of the mine end becoming looser is high. The profit of ferronickel produced from medium - grade nickel ore is close to the break - even point, while the profit from low - grade nickel ore is still substantial. The total supply of domestic electrolytic nickel remains at a high level, and the cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decline [5] Demand - In the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the nickel cost is about 127,000 yuan, which is consistent with the technical pressure level. The demand support from downstream nickel sulfate cost is about 134,000 yuan/ton, and the profit critical point for external - purchasing manufacturers is about 137,000 yuan/ton. The possibility of stainless steel production cuts is small [6] Conclusion - Although the Sino - US trade concerns remain, market sentiment has eased. Nickel prices have rebounded in the short term, but the fundamental trend of surplus remains unchanged. The support from the mine end is not sustainable [6] Operation Suggestion - Short [7]