Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the products in the energy and chemical industry are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea, and asphalt [2][4][6]. - Natural gas is rated as "Cautiously Bullish" [6]. - Glass is rated as "Bearish with Rebound" [6]. - Soda ash is rated as "Bearish with Consolidation" [6]. Core Viewpoints - The industry is generally affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost fluctuations, and geopolitical risks. Most products face downward pressure due to oversupply or weakening cost support, while natural gas has upward potential due to increased demand in the consumption season [2][4][6]. Summary by Product Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with WTI down 0.80%, Brent down 0.69%, and SC unchanged from the previous period [8][9]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the oversupply in the off - season. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause production increases in Q1 next year. Global crude oil inventories are accelerating the accumulation [10][11]. - **Strategy**: Hold existing short positions and consider adding short positions lightly. Pay attention to the price range of SC at [455 - 470] [12]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On November 4, the PG main contract closed at 4,266 yuan/ton, down 0.91% [14][15]. - **Basic Logic**: It follows the cost - end oil price. The cost is bearish as Saudi Arabia lowered the CP contract price again. The supply has decreased slightly, and the downstream chemical industry's operating rate has increased, but the inventory at ports has risen [16]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the price range of PG at [4200 - 4300] [17]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,009 yuan/ton [20]. - **Basic Logic**: Social inventory is slowly decreasing, and cost support is weakening. The supply is in a loose pattern, and the demand is in the peak season but lacks restocking motivation [21]. - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell - hedge at high prices and hold short positions. Pay attention to the price range of L at [6750 - 6900] [21]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6,691 yuan/ton [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream and mid - stream inventories are at the same - period high. The demand is at the end of the "Silver October", and there is a high pressure to destock. The oil - based cost support is insufficient [25]. - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell - hedge at high prices and hold short positions. Pay attention to the price range of PP at [6450 - 6600] [25]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 closed at 4,719 yuan/ton [28]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost support is weakening as the price of calcium carbide falls. The social inventory is stable, and the fundamentals maintain a high - inventory and high - warrant structure [29]. - **Strategy**: The market maintains a high contango. Industries should hedge at high prices. Be cautious when short - chasing. Pay attention to the price range of V at [4550 - 4700] [29]. PX - **Market Performance**: - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has domestic production cuts and overseas production increases. The demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are relatively high. The cost - end oil price rebounds but the supply - demand pattern remains loose [30]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the price range of PX at [6550 - 6650] [31]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA01 closed at 4,586 yuan/ton [32]. - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is low, and the later - stage device maintenance efforts are expected to increase, which will relieve the supply pressure. The terminal demand has slightly improved, but there is an expected inventory accumulation in November [33]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the price range of TA at [4530 - 4590] [34]. MEG - **Market Performance**: - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas devices have increased their loads. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and there is an expected inventory accumulation in November. The valuation is low, but there is no upward driver [36]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price range of EG at [3870 - 3950] [37]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppresses the spot price rebound. The supply pressure is large, and the demand performance is average. The cost support is weakly stable [40]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously. Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices and consider the MA1 - 5 reverse spread. Pay attention to the price range of MA at [2091 - 2141] [42]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The UR01 closed at 1,625 yuan/ton [43]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand has slightly improved. The inventory is at a high level but has decreased recently. The valuation is low [44]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are weak. Consider going long lightly in the medium - to - long - term. Pay attention to the price range of UR at [1610 - 1640] [46]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On November 4, the NG main contract closed at 4.501 US dollars per million British thermal units, up 3.02% [48][49]. - **Basic Logic**: The geopolitical risk of sanctions on Russia has been released, and the demand for heating has increased with the temperature drop, which supports the gas price [50]. - **Strategy**: The rising demand in the consumption season supports the gas price, but the supply is sufficient, and the upward pressure is increasing. Pay attention to the price range of NG at [4.262 - 4.458] [51]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On November 4, the BU main contract closed at 3,193 yuan/ton, down 1.24% [53][54]. - **Basic Logic**: It follows the cost - end oil price. The cost support is decreasing, and the supply and demand are both weakening. The inventory has decreased [55]. - **Strategy**: The valuation is high, and the supply is sufficient. The medium - to - long - term trend is bearish. Lightly short - allocate. Pay attention to the price range of BU at [3100 - 3200] [56]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG2601 closed at 1,095 yuan/ton [59]. - **Basic Logic**: The daily melting volume has increased slightly, the fundamentals are in a loose pattern, and the capital game is intense. The inventory in factories is slowly decreasing but remains high [60]. - **Strategy**: The loose pattern is hard to change, and the medium - to - long - term rebound is bearish. Pay attention to the price range of FG at [1060 - 1110] [60]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA2601 closed at 1,209 yuan/ton [63]. - **Basic Logic**: The factory inventory is slightly decreasing but still at a high level. The demand is mostly rigid, and the supply is in a loose pattern due to high - production periods [64]. - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell - hedge at high prices. The single - side rebound is bearish. Pay attention to the price range of SA at [1170 - 1220] [64].

Report Overview - This is the Agricultural Products Morning Report of Wukuang Futures on November 5, 2025, covering market information and strategic views on multiple agricultural products [1][2] Market Information Soybean and Bean Meal - Overnight, CBOT soybeans declined due to profit - taking and the expectation of a global soybean bumper harvest. Brazilian soybean premium was stable, while the cost of domestic soybean imports increased [2] - On Tuesday, the domestic bean meal spot price dropped by 10 yuan, with the price in East China reported at 2990 yuan/ton. Bean meal trading was weak, but pick - up was good. The oil mill operating rate was 51%, down from the previous period [2] - MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume this week would be 2.0964 million tons, compared with 2.2534 million tons last week [2] - As of October 30, the Brazilian soybean planting rate reached 47%, lower than 54% in the same period last year, affected by irregular precipitation. It was rumored that China had purchased several cargoes of US soybeans [2] Fats and Oils - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in October increased by 4.31% - 5.19% compared with the previous month. SPPOMA data indicated that Malaysia's palm oil production in October increased by 5.55% [6] - Reuters survey showed that palm oil inventory was expected to soar 3.5% in October to 2.44 million tons, the highest since October 2023 [6] - The National Grain and Oil Information Center predicted that in November, the consumption of fats and oils would enter the peak season. With the depletion of domestic rapeseed inventory in oil mills and the continuous decline of rapeseed oil inventory, and the recent decline in the fat and oil market price driven by palm oil, downstream consumption demand might be stimulated [6] - On Tuesday, domestic fats and oils slightly corrected. It was reported that Australian rapeseed would enter China, while palm oil was still restricted by the high recent production in Malaysia and Indonesia [6] Sugar - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January sugar contract was 5481 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous trading day [9] - In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 5670 - 5700 yuan/ton, down 0 - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, down 10 - 30 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5790 - 5920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [9] - According to UNICA data, in the first half of October, the sugarcane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil was 34.037 million tons, an increase of 0.3% year - on - year; the sugar - making ratio was 48.24%, an increase of 0.93 percentage points year - on - year; sugar production was 2.484 million tons, an increase of 1.25% year - on - year [10] Cotton - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January cotton contract was 13535 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton or 0.48% from the previous trading day [13] - As of the week ending October 31, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, flat compared with the previous week, 6.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 9.52 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years [13] - On November 3, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 7.01 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [13] Eggs - The national egg price remained stable yesterday. The average price in the main producing areas was 2.84 yuan/jin, with the price in Heishan remaining at 2.7 yuan/jin and that in Guantao at 2.69 yuan/jin [17] Pigs - Domestic pig prices generally continued to decline yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped 0.25 yuan to 12.04 yuan/kg, in Sichuan dropped 0.19 yuan to 11.67 yuan/kg, and in Guangxi dropped 0.26 yuan to 11.63 yuan/kg [20] Strategic Views Soybean and Bean Meal - The import cost is expected to fluctuate mainly. The domestic soybean and bean meal inventories are high, and the crushing profit is under pressure. In the short term, bean meal is expected to rise with the import cost, and the crushing profit will recover, stimulating ship purchases. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and it is still advisable to sell on rebounds [4] Fats and Oils - The higher - than - expected palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market. In the short term, the current situation of large supply and inventory accumulation of palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to view the market as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, and turn to a long - position thinking if there are signs of production decline [8] Sugar - Recently, due to the strengthening of import control of syrup and premixed powder, the Zhengzhou sugar price rebounded, but the external market is still weak. It is recommended to wait for the rebound momentum to weaken and then look for opportunities to short [11] Cotton - Fundamentally, demand is weak this year, and the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. The new - year domestic cotton harvest is abundant, and the selling hedging pressure is high. It is expected that the cotton price will continue to fluctuate in the short term [14] Eggs - The continuous low replenishment and high culling of chickens have led to the expectation of a peak and decline in inventory. It is expected that the egg price will be mainly strong and consolidate in the short term, and the upper - level pressure should be monitored in the medium term [18] Pigs - The plan completion rate of large - scale pig farms is relatively high, but due to the increasing difficulty in selling white - striped pigs, the spot price increase is less than expected. It is advisable to short on rallies, but since the current futures market position is high, cautious investors can use reverse - spread positions instead [21]

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 3951.10 with a change of -74.15 [3] - London Silver's latest price is 47.76 with a change of -1.02 [3] - London Platinum's latest price is 1580.00 with a change of -9.00 [3] - London Palladium's latest price is 1463.00 with a change of -2.00 [3] - WTI Crude's latest price is 61.05 with a change of 0.00 [3] - LME Copper's latest price is 10692.00 with a change of -220.00 [3] - US Dollar Index's latest price is 99.88 with a change of 0.00 [3] - Euro to US Dollar's latest price is 1.15 with a change of 0.00 [3] - British Pound to US Dollar's latest price is 1.31 with a change of 0.00 [3] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest price is 154.21 with a change of 0.00 [3] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest price is 1.82 with a change of 0.00 [3] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 15002.46 with a change of 0.00 [4] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 665.61 with a change of 6.76 [4] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1038.63 with a change of -3.15 [4] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15189.82 with a change of 0.00 [4] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 1050.68 with a change of 0.00 [4] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with a change of 0.00 [4] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2 with a change of 0.00 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Urea spot prices decreased yesterday, and low - price transactions improved. Short - term fluctuations are expected. In the short term, autumn fertilizer production for agriculture is ongoing in some areas, and the overall operating rate has increased with the recovery of equipment. The production of autumn fertilizers for compound fertilizers is nearing completion, and the inventory of compound fertilizers for winter wheat is mainly being cleared. With the improvement of weather, the sentiment of product sales has improved. The operation of melamine has increased slightly, with rigid demand for procurement. In the long - term, due to the release of new production capacity, the supply and demand of urea will remain relatively loose. Gas - fired equipment maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. The factory inventory decreased last week, and the highest inventory is still in Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the operating rate of compound fertilizers in the Northeast, the raw material procurement rhythm, and the national light - storage rhythm. Urea is still affected by export sentiment, and the export policy may change. [2] - Strategies: For single - side trading, expect range - bound fluctuations; for inter - period trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for cross - variety trading, there is no specific strategy. [3] 3. Summary by Directory I. Urea Basis Structure - The report provides information on the market prices of small - sized urea in Shandong and Henan, as well as the basis of the main continuous contracts in Shandong and Henan, and the price of the urea main continuous contract and relevant spreads. [1][6][7] II. Urea Production - The report shows the weekly production of urea and the loss of urea plant maintenance. [17][22] III. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes the production cost, spot production profit, and the operating rates of coal - based and gas - based urea production. [25][26][29] IV. Urea Foreign Market Prices and Export Profits - The report presents the FOB prices of small - sized urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR prices of large - sized urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB prices of small - sized and large - sized urea in China, and the export profit and on - paper export profit of urea. [31][33][37] V. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It shows the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, as well as the number of days of pending orders. [46][47][48] VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes the upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract. [51][54][55] Market Data Summary - **Price and Basis**: On November 3, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,623 yuan/ton (- 2). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,560 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,560 yuan/ton (- 30), and in Jiangsu was 1,560 yuan/ton (- 20). The price of small - sized anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis in Shandong was - 63 yuan/ton (- 28), in Henan was - 63 yuan/ton (- 18), and in Jiangsu was - 63 yuan/ton (- 18). The urea production profit was 30 yuan/ton (- 30), and the export profit was 904 yuan/ton (+ 32). [1] - **Supply Side**: As of November 3, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.32% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.5543 million tons (- 75,900 tons), and the port sample inventory was 110,000 tons (- 100,000 tons). [1] - **Demand Side**: As of November 3, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 31.04% (+ 3.33%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 49.98% (+ 1.68%), and the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 7.53 days (+ 0.12). [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China-US meeting, market sentiment and the capital environment are expected to improve. Coupled with the expectation of a recovery in manufacturing demand, steel consumption may gradually recover in the future. Although demand remains weak in the short term, it is expected to turn around with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro environment [2] - For the black sector, the report maintains a non - pessimistic view. It believes that finding callback positions to do long may have higher cost - effectiveness than shorting. The macro situation is a more important factor affecting prices than the weak fundamentals [11] - For industrial silicon, its price is likely to fluctuate with the overall commodity environment and is subject to the influence of coking coal futures prices. It is expected to trade in a range in the short term [14] - For polysilicon, its supply - demand pattern may improve marginally due to production cuts, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The price is affected by policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies [17] - For glass, the market has enhanced expectations for supply - structure improvement, but the current fundamentals are weak, and the sustainability of the market needs to be observed based on spot transactions and inventory de - stocking [20] - For soda ash, with high industry operating rates, continuous expansion of enterprise losses, and only rigid replenishment demand from downstream, the price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [21] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3079 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (-0.86%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 123,040 tons, a decrease of 1200 tons from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract was 1.919017 million lots, an increase of 39,567 lots. The Tianjin aggregate price of rebar was 3190 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the Shanghai aggregate price was 3220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3295 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.39%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 98,537 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract was 1.422835 million lots, a decrease of 47,384 lots. The Lecong aggregate price of hot - rolled coil was 3310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregate price was 3310 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Views - Rebar shows both increasing supply and demand, with continuous inventory de - stocking, performing neutrally overall. Hot - rolled coils have a continuous recovery in demand, but the production is still high, and the inventory, although decreasing, remains at a relatively high level [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 782.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -2.19% (-17.50). The open interest changed by -5350 lots to 534,900 lots. The weighted open interest of iron ore was 918,400 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 788 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.34 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.61% [4] Strategy Views - In terms of supply, the latest overseas iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level for the same period. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both declined, with FMG showing a significant decrease. Shipments from non - mainstream countries decreased slightly, and the near - end arrivals rebounded rapidly to the highest level of the year after rhythm fluctuations [5] - In terms of demand, the latest daily average pig iron output was 236.36 million tons, a decrease of 3.54 million tons month - on - month. The number of blast furnaces under maintenance far exceeded those being restarted. The profitability of steel mills hit a new low for the year, and some blast furnaces started maintenance due to profit decline. Environmental restrictions in Hebei also affected pig iron production [5] - In terms of inventory, port inventories continued to increase, while steel mill inventories decreased. The terminal data was neutral. Fundamentally, pig iron output continued to decline, iron ore demand weakened, and inventory pressure remained [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On November 3, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) rose 0.38% during the day, closing at 5794 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5890 yuan/ton on the futures basis, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 96 yuan/ton over the futures [7] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) rose 0.47% during the day, closing at 5526 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a discount of 26 yuan/ton to the futures [9] Strategy Views - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal and lack a major contradiction. Potential drivers may come from the manganese ore end. If the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to possible disturbances in the manganese ore end [11] - The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions or drivers and are likely to follow the black sector's market, with relatively low operability [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 9140 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.44% (+40). The weighted contract open interest changed by -8769 lots to 399,774 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 160 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of -240 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion [13] - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 56,065 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.61% (-345). The weighted contract open interest changed by -13 lots to 258,086 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.25 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of -3815 yuan/ton for the main contract [16] Strategy Views - The supply pressure of industrial silicon persists. Although production cuts continue in the southwest during the dry season, production in the northwest continues to rise, and weekly production has not reached its peak. On the demand side, some polysilicon production capacity will start maintenance, and the production schedule in November will drop to 120,000 tons, with production expected to decline in the last two months. The operating rate of silicone DMC has decreased and is expected to remain stable in the short term. The cost of electricity in the southwest during the dry season and coking coal prices provide support for the industrial silicon futures price [14] - Some polysilicon production capacity will start maintenance, and the production schedule in November will drop to 120,000 tons, with production expected to decline in the last two months. The operating rate of downstream silicon wafers is also expected to decline slightly. The supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The price is affected by policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies [17] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - On Monday at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1083 yuan/ton, down 0.73% (-8). The price of large - sized glass in North China was 1130 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1120 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 65.79 million boxes, a decrease of 823,000 boxes (-1.24%). Among the top 20 long - position holders, 37,089 long positions were reduced today, and among the top 20 short - position holders, 36,309 short positions were reduced today [19] - On Monday at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1225 yuan/ton, down 0.81% (-10). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1162 yuan, down 13 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 100 tons (-1.24%), including 886,400 tons of heavy soda ash, a decrease of 48,100 tons, and 815,600 tons of light soda ash, an increase of 48,000 tons. Among the top 20 long - position holders, 64,210 long positions were increased today, and among the top 20 short - position holders, 84,522 short positions were increased today [21] Strategy Views - For glass, the market has enhanced expectations for supply - structure improvement due to the cold - repair plan of production lines in Shahe and the "anti - involution" policy, but the current fundamentals are weak, and the sustainability of the market needs to be observed based on spot transactions and inventory de - stocking [20] - For soda ash, with high industry operating rates, continuous expansion of enterprise losses, and only rigid replenishment demand from downstream, the price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on methanol is "oscillating", suggesting a cautious and slightly bearish approach in investment operations [2]. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the methanol market shows a pattern of loose supply, weak demand, high - level inventory, and differentiated profit performance. The futures market is likely to continue the weak oscillating pattern in the short term due to factors such as weak downstream demand and general cost - side support [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - This week, the overall methanol supply is in a loose state. Domestic production has some devices under maintenance and some resuming production, with relatively stable capacity utilization and output. Imports have increased compared to last week, and port inventories remain high with subsequent arrivals expected [2]. Demand - The overall methanol demand is weak. The methanol - to - olefins industry has limited consumption, and traditional downstream industries show differentiated performance, with some facing profit pressure and having cautious purchasing intentions [2]. Inventory - The overall methanol inventory is at a high level with regional differentiation. Port inventories are historically high, and inland inventories vary in different regions, with the overall inventory suppressing prices [2]. Profit - Methanol profit shows a differentiated pattern in terms of process and industry chain. Coal - based methanol profit has a slight adjustment, coke - oven gas - based profit declines slightly, and natural - gas - based methanol continues to be in the red. Downstream industries also have different profit performances, and the overall methanol industry chain still faces profit pressure [2]. Macro and Geopolitical Factors - The easing of Sino - US trade policies is beneficial. On October 30, the leaders of the two countries met, and the US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff for another year, and pause some export control rules and investigations. China will make corresponding adjustments [2]. Investment and Trading - The methanol futures market is in a weak state, with the core trading logic centered around the supply - demand fundamentals. The short - side pressure from high port inventories and loose supply suppresses prices, while the long - side support from low valuations and prices is limited. It is recommended to be cautious and slightly bearish in investment operations, and both single - side and arbitrage trading suggest a wait - and - see approach [2]. Price and Market Data - The spot prices of methanol in various regions show different degrees of decline this week. For example, the price of imported methanol in Taicang decreased by 1.51% [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry Chain - PX: In November, with few PX unit overhauls in Asia and China, but concentrated PTA unit overhauls, PX supply - demand is expected to be weak. PX absolute prices are expected to gradually face pressure. The strategy is to follow crude oil for unilateral trading and go short on rallies, and try to shrink the PX - SC spread [1]. - PTA: In November, there are still many PTA unit overhaul plans. With better - than - expected terminal and polyester demand in October and low polyester inventory, PTA supply - demand is expected to be slightly loose with a small inventory accumulation expectation. PTA will continue to oscillate at a low level. The strategy is to follow crude oil for unilateral trading and go short on rallies, and treat TA1 - 5 as a rolling reverse spread [1]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): In November, domestic supply is high, overseas shipments are concentrated, and inventory accumulation is expected to be high, putting pressure on the price. The strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies and do a reverse spread on EG1 - 5 on rallies [1]. - Short Fiber: In November, supply is expected to remain high, demand may weaken seasonally, and cost support is limited. Short - fiber prices will gradually face pressure. The strategy is similar to PTA for PF12, and try to shrink the PF processing margin when it is above 1000 [1]. - Bottle Chips: In November, supply changes little, demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Bottle - chip prices will follow the cost side, and the processing margin will fluctuate with raw material costs. The strategy is similar to PTA for PR, and the main - contract processing margin is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton [1]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: In November, supply is expected to increase, demand support is weak, and prices are expected to be weakly stable. The overall trend is bearish, and it is necessary to track downstream restocking rhythm [2]. - PVC: In October, PVC prices continued to decline. In November - December, supply pressure will continue due to new capacity and high - season operation, and demand is in the off - season. Prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [2]. Methanol Industry The current market is trading the "weak reality" logic centered on high port inventory. Before the Iranian gas restriction, the weak reality will continue to be priced in. The 01 - contract inventory problem cannot be solved [3][4][5]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: In November, supply is expected to be loose, demand support is limited, and although the East China port inventory decreased in October, it may increase later. Pure - benzene prices are expected to have weak driving force, but attention should be paid to unit changes [8]. - Styrene: In November, supply may slightly decrease, demand is expected to change little, and the supply - demand may be in a tight - balance state. However, high port inventory will limit price increases. The strategy is to be bearish on EB12 price rebounds [8]. Polyolefin Industry PP supply recovery has slowed down due to unplanned overhauls, while PE supply is expected to increase. Demand has recovered, but the agricultural film peak is approaching. Overall, supply will increase and demand will decrease, and there is inventory pressure on the 01 - contract. The 05 - contract may have long - term low - buying opportunities, and the monthly spread is suitable for reverse spreads [10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Chain Price and Spread - Upstream: Brent crude oil (December) dropped 0.1% to $65.00/barrel, WTI crude oil (December) dropped 0.7% to $60.57/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha rose 1.4% to $573/ton, etc. [1] - Downstream: POY150/48 price remained unchanged at 6415 yuan/ton, FDY150/96 price remained unchanged at 6690 yuan/ton, etc. [1] - PX: CFR China PX rose 0.4% to $820/ton, PX spot price (RMB) dropped 2.4% to 6753 yuan/ton [1]. - PTA: PTA East China spot price dropped 0.6% to 4535 yuan/ton, TA2601 futures rose 0.4% to 4586 yuan/ton [1]. - MEG: MEG port inventory dropped 9.7% to 52.3 million tons, MEG arrival expectation rose 273.6% to 19.8 million tons [1]. 开工率 - Asian PX开工率 dropped 0.5% to 78.1%, Chinese PX开工率 rose 1.1% to 87.0%, PTA开工率 dropped 0.8% to 78.0%, etc. [1] Chlor - Alkali Industry Price and Spread - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) remained at 2500 yuan/ton, East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price dropped 1.1% to 4610 yuan/ton [2]. 开工率 - Caustic soda industry开工率 rose 0.1% to 85.6%, PVC total开工率 dropped 1.9% to 73.7% [2]. 库存 - Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory dropped 3.8% to 18.8 million tons, PVC upstream factory inventory dropped 7.4% to 33.4 million tons [2]. Methanol Industry Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2180 yuan/ton, down 1.27% from the previous day, and the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's north line dropped 9.09% to 150 yuan/ton [3]. 库存 - Methanol enterprise inventory rose 4.36% to 37.606%, methanol port inventory dropped 0.38% to 150.6 million tons [4]. 开工率 - Upstream domestic enterprise开工率 dropped 0.09% to 75.78%, downstream external - procurement MTO device开工率 rose 7.63% to 84.06% [5]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Price and Spread - CFR China pure benzene rose 0.4% to $677/ton, styrene East China spot price rose 1.1% to 6470 yuan/ton [8]. 库存 - Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory dropped 14.1% to 8.50 million tons, styrene Jiangsu port inventory dropped 4.7% to 19.30 million tons [8]. 开工率 - Asian pure benzene开工率 dropped 0.5% to 78.8%, domestic styrene开工率 dropped 3.7% to 66.7% [8]. Polyolefin Industry Price and Spread - L2601 closed at 6968 yuan/ton, down 0.99% from the previous day, PP2601 closed at 6590 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from the previous day [10]. 库存 - PE enterprise inventory dropped 19.16% to 41.6 million tons, PP enterprise inventory dropped 6.80% to 59.5 million tons [10]. 开工率 - PE device开工率 dropped 0.73% to 80.9%, PP device开工率 rose 1.5% to 77.1% [10].

Report Overview - This is the agricultural product morning report of Wukuang Futures on November 3, 2025, covering protein meals, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For protein meals, expect short - term price increases following import costs, with a mid - term strategy of selling on rebounds due to the expected global soybean supply surplus [5] - For oils, suggest a bearish view in the short - term until Malaysian palm oil exports improve, and switch to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline [9] - For sugar, recommend looking for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens due to limited upward space for raw sugar [13] - For cotton, expect limited upward space for cotton prices in the short - term due to weak fundamentals [16] - For eggs, expect short - term strong consolidation, and pay attention to upper pressure in the mid - term [18] - For pigs, suggest a strategy of selling on rallies, and cautious investors can use reverse spreads [20] Summary by Category Protein Meals Market Information - Last Friday, CBOT soybeans rose as the market expected China to buy a large amount of US soybeans. Over the weekend, domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 30 yuan, with the East China price at 2950 yuan/ton. Last week, soybean meal trading was average, and pick - up was good. MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume this week will be 2.0964 million tons, compared with 2.2534 million tons last week. In the next two weeks, rainfall in the main Brazilian planting areas will be at a neutral level. US officials said China will buy tens of millions of tons of soybeans after the APEC talks [3] Strategy Viewpoints - Import costs will mainly trade in a range. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and the crushing margin is under pressure. However, as the inventory - reduction season approaches, there is some support. Expect short - term price increases following import costs, a rebound in the crushing margin, and an increase in vessel bookings. In the mid - term, the expected global soybean supply surplus remains unchanged, so the strategy is to sell on rebounds [5] Oils Market Information - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 30 increased by 4.31% - 5.19% compared with the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 25 increased by 1.63% compared with the same period last month. As of the week of October 26, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 25.4% to 155,500 tons. China and Canada agreed to promote the solution of specific economic and trade issues [7] Strategy Viewpoints - The high - than - expected palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. Palm oil's inventory build - up due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the inventory - reduction time may come earlier. Before Malaysian palm oil exports improve, maintain a bearish view, and switch to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline [9] Sugar Market Information - On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to trade sideways. The closing price of the January contract was 5483 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the price of processed sugar remained unchanged. In the first half of October, Brazil's central - southern region had a cane crushing volume of 34.037 million tons, a sugar production of 2.484 million tons, and an increase in the sugar - making ratio [11][12] Strategy Viewpoints - Stricter import controls on syrup and premixed powder have driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the overseas market is still weak. Brazil's central - southern region's cumulative sugar production has exceeded last year's level, and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere's main producing countries in the 2025/26 season limits the upward space for raw sugar. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens [13] Cotton Market Information - On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures traded in a narrow range. The closing price of the January contract was 13,595 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. As of the week of October 31, the spinning mill's operating rate was 65.6%. On November 1, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.31 yuan/kg [15] Strategy Viewpoints - Due to weak demand during the peak consumption season this year, the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. There is an expected high - yield in the new year, and the selling hedging pressure is high. Although the recent increase in the new cotton purchase price has driven up Zhengzhou cotton prices, the fundamentals are still weak, and the upward space for cotton prices in the short - term is limited [16] Eggs Market Information - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were mainly stable, with some local decreases. The laying hen inventory decreased slightly, but the supply of medium and small - sized eggs was still sufficient. The demand side was supported by increased stocking due to the cooling weather and upcoming Double Eleven preparations [17] Strategy Viewpoints - Low replenishment and high culling rates have led to expectations of a peak and decline in inventory. With increased stocking sentiment after the cooling, the previous downward spiral of egg prices has been broken. With upcoming consumption themes such as Double Eleven and pre - festival preparations, the market sentiment is improving. However, due to the high premium in the futures market and the expected high supply, expect short - term strong consolidation, and pay attention to upper pressure in the mid - term [18] Pigs Market Information - Over the weekend, domestic pig prices mainly declined. Some large - scale breeding groups increased their pig sales at the beginning of the month, resulting in a price drop. The demand increase was insufficient, and the supply still exceeded demand [19] Strategy Viewpoints - Large - scale breeding groups have a high plan completion rate, but the spot price increase was less than expected due to difficulties in selling pork. There is a phenomenon of inventory postponement, and the market is under high - supply pressure. The futures market has priced in the future supply pressure in advance. The overall strategy is to sell on rallies, and cautious investors can use reverse spreads [20]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Report's Core View - For Shanghai Nickel (SHFE Nickel 2512), it is expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average, with some support from the cost line below. The overall situation is affected by macro - factors, with a long - term surplus pattern. The short - term situation is affected by factors such as nickel ore price, nickel iron price, and inventory [2]. - For Stainless Steel (Stainless Steel 2512), it is expected to operate with wide fluctuations around the 20 - day moving average. The spot price has declined, and the cost line has loosened downward [4]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs 1. Price Information - **Nickel Price**: On October 31, the Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 120,590 yuan, down 390 yuan from the previous day; LME Nickel was at 15,250 yuan, unchanged. The spot prices of various nickel types all decreased slightly. For example, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,950 yuan, down 250 yuan [11]. - **Stainless Steel Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,655 yuan on October 31, down 70 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in different regions also decreased [11]. 2. Inventory Information - **Nickel Inventory**: As of October 31, LME nickel inventory was 252,102 tons, an increase of 462 tons; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 31,388 tons, a decrease of 144 tons. The total inventory increased by 318 tons [14]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: On October 31, the inventory in Wuxi was 598,700 tons, in Foshan was 306,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,031,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,700 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 651,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,600 tons. The stainless steel futures warehouse receipts were 73,657 tons, a decrease of 120 tons [19][20]. 3. Cost Information - **Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Price**: The prices of red - soil nickel ore CIF with different grades remained unchanged on October 31 compared to the previous day. The price of high - nickel ferronickel decreased slightly, and the price of low - nickel ferronickel remained unchanged. The sea freight also remained stable [23]. - **Stainless Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,852 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 13,012 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,669 yuan [25]. - **Nickel Import Cost**: The calculated import price was 122,291 yuan/ton [28]. 4. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: The price of nickel ore is firm, which provides some support to the cost line [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. Both domestic and overseas inventories are accumulating [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The outcome of the China-US meeting today was below expectations, and the price of US soybeans declined. The profit margin of domestic soybean purchases has improved but remains poor. The domestic futures price is relatively low, and the futures market is expected to rebound in the short term to repair the crushing profit. However, the current abundant supply of near - term soybean meal in the spot market and the expected abundant global soybean supply in the long - term limit the upside potential of the futures market. Attention should be paid to the subsequent policy changes between China and the US and the impact of South American weather on the market [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spread and Price Difference Data - **Spot and Futures Basis**: On October 30th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang was - 24, down 25; the basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Tianjin was 26, down 25; in Rizhao it was 6, down 25; in Dongguan it was - 44, down 25; in Zhanjiang it was - 4, down 15. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 73, up 13 [6]. - **Price Difference**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 593, down 3; the price difference between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 448, down 16 [7]. - **Spread**: The RM1 - 5 spread was 1500, up 23; the M1 - M5 spread data was presented in the table; the M1 - RM1 spread was 900, and other spread data was also provided [6][7]. 3.2 Supply - related Information - **USDA Forecast**: The estimated ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 300 million bushels, and the expected yield per acre of 53.5 bushels may be revised downward. Exports depend on China - US policies [7]. - **Brazilian Soybean Sowing**: As of October 25th, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans was 34.4%, compared with 21.1% last week, 37.7% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 42.5% [7]. - **Domestic Supply**: In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [7][8]. 3.3 Demand - related Information - **Livestock and Poultry Demand**: In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports current demand. However, the current breeding profit is in deficit, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply [8]. - **Soybean Meal Sales**: The downstream transactions of soybean meal are normal, and the pick - up is good [8]. 3.4 Inventory - related Information - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels compared to the same period. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have decreased to a low level [8]. 3.5 Other Information - **Exchange Rate and Profit**: The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium and the import soybean crushing profit data were presented in the report [7]. - **Domestic Oil Mill Data**: The opening rate and soybean crushing volume of domestic major oil mills, as well as the inventory data of domestic major oil mills' soybean meal and soybean, were provided [7].