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宝城期货国债期货早报-20250512
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 02:51
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2506 is to fluctuate, the medium - term view is to fluctuate, and the intraday view is to fluctuate strongly, with an overall view of range - bound fluctuations. The core logic is that the expectation of interest rate cuts has been fulfilled, and short - term fluctuations and consolidation are the main trends [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to fluctuate strongly, the medium - term view is to fluctuate, and the reference view is range - bound fluctuations. The long - term upward policy basis for bonds is solid due to policy - driven interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts. However, the current bond futures price already implies the expectation of interest rate cuts, and further cuts require the cooperation of domestic and foreign environments. The hawkish expectation of the Fed's monetary policy may limit the central bank's future easing pace, and the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low. Also, due to the high uncertainty of Sino - US contacts, the demand for bond hedging remains. Overall, bond futures are expected to remain high - level fluctuating in the short term with limited downside [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Bond Index Sector - For TL2506, short - term: fluctuate; medium - term: fluctuate; intraday: fluctuate strongly; overall view: range - bound fluctuations. Core logic: expectation of interest rate cuts fulfilled, short - term fluctuations and consolidation [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Bond Index Sector - For TL, T, TF, and TS, intraday view: fluctuate strongly; medium - term view: fluctuate; reference view: range - bound fluctuations. Core logic: long - term upward policy basis for bonds is solid due to policy - driven cuts. Current price implies interest rate cut expectation, further cuts need domestic and foreign cooperation. Hawkish Fed policy may limit central bank's easing pace, short - term interest rate cut possibility is low. High uncertainty of Sino - US contacts leads to hedging demand, short - term high - level fluctuations with limited downside [4].
机构:长债或维持高位震荡局面,30年国债ETF(511090)成交额已超20亿元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-12 02:41
资金流入方面,30年国债ETF近17个交易日内有10日资金净流入,合计"吸金"4.80亿元,日均净流入达 2825.78万元。 数据显示,杠杆资金持续布局中。30年国债ETF最新融资买入额达2.27亿元,最新融资余额达2.28亿 元。 招商期货指出,5月7日,三部门召开国新办新闻发布会,推出"降准+结构性降息"组合拳:降准50bps, 降息10bps,房贷利率降25bps,推行科技、消费领域再贷款政策,优化小微企业融资协调机制,优化长 线资金稳定活跃资本市场相关规则,货币政策取向进一步宽松。本次政策定位旨在稳定资本市场,而非 强力刺激,属于底部信号。在经济明确出现转好信号前,长债或维持高位震荡局面,但也不排除预期反 转转为下行。在资本市场企稳之后,贸易谈判情况或为市场重心。结合周末中美的贸易谈判来看,由于 国内资本市场已有企稳,中方谈判策略或可更加激进,因此谈判进程或较为波折,可关注贸易局势来回 摇摆间的交易性机会。 截至2025年5月12日 10:07,30年国债ETF(511090)下跌0.43%,最新报价123.87元。流动性方面,30年国 债ETF盘中换手12.82%,成交20.54亿元,市场交投活跃 ...
债券周报:按图索骥,利差压缩到哪一步?-20250511
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-11 14:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market has entered a volatile period without obvious drivers. The short - term impact of the current economic fundamentals on the bond market is limited, and the short - end has fully reacted to the loose funds. The stock - bond seesaw effect is not significant [1][2]. - After the interest rate cut, although the short - end benefits may gradually spread to the long - end, the 10 - year bond has no significant downward space. The bond market has entered a spread - mining market [3]. - In terms of different maturities, the rotation pattern of government bonds from short - end to medium - end to ultra - long - end is obvious. In terms of different categories, attention should be paid to the catch - up opportunities of other varieties after the high - liquidity varieties take the lead [4][5]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Bond Market Enters a Volatile Period without Obvious Drivers - **Fundamentals**: The economic data in April is divergent. Exports are still strong, but the PMI reflects a downward expectation. The second - quarter fundamentals may face some disturbances, and the short - term impact on the bond market is limited [1]. - **Monetary Policy**: The favorable monetary policy has been implemented, and the funds are loose. The short - end has fully reacted, and the subsequent downward breakthrough of funds still needs to be observed [1]. - **Equity Market**: After the double - cut this time, the equity market has performed steadily, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is not significant [2]. 3.2 Bond Market Strategy: How to Compress Spreads in the Volatile Period? - Although the short - end benefits may spread to the long - end, the 10 - year bond has no significant downward space. The previous low may be an important resistance level [3]. - In terms of different maturities, government bonds show a rotation pattern from short - end to medium - end to ultra - long - end. In terms of different categories, attention should be paid to the catch - up opportunities of other varieties after the high - liquidity varieties take the lead [4][5]. 3.3 Interest - Rate Bond Market Review: After the Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts, the Yield Curve Steepens - **Funding**: The central bank's OMO has a large - scale net withdrawal, and the funding is balanced and loose [8]. - **Primary Issuance**: The net financing of government bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit has increased, while that of policy - bank bonds and local government bonds has decreased [8]. - **Benchmark Changes**: The term spreads of government bonds and CDB bonds have both widened [8].
中小银行存款利率忙补降!新一轮银行集体“降息”即将到来
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-05-11 11:50
多地中小银行密集按下存款利率"下调键",5月11日,北京商报记者注意到,近日,包括哈密市商业银行、 聊城沪农商村镇银行、海伦惠丰村镇银行在内的多地中小银行以及上海华瑞银行、福建华通银行等民营银 行"官宣"对存款利率进行下调。部分长期限存款利率跌破2%,步入"1时代"。这轮中小银行的"补降",被 视为对前期国有大行"降息"的跟进,人民银行降息、降准一揽子货币政策的落地,将市场对新一轮全国性 银行集体"降息"的预期也推向高点。 中小银行集体"补降" 银行存款利率已全面向"1时代"迈进,5月11日,北京商报记者注意到,近日,多地中小银行、民营银行宣 布执行新的存款利率水平。 在此之前,受市场利率下行、持续让利实体经济等因素影响,2024年A股上市银行净息差仍面临严峻考 验。据北京商报记者统计,过去一年,42家银行净息差全线收窄,降幅在1—51个基点之间。股份制银行 及地方银行降幅较大,平安银行、浙商银行、贵阳银行、郑州银行、江阴农商行、张家港农商行等净息差 下降幅度达30个基点或以上;光大银行、华夏银行、长沙银行、齐鲁银行、瑞丰农商行2024年净息差同比 降幅则在20个基点附近。息差下行幅度亦符合行业趋势,国家金融 ...
C50风向指数调查:“双降”后新一轮存款利率下调预期升温 市场预计PSL或再次重启
news flash· 2025-05-09 03:14
智通财经C50风向指数调查:"双降"后新一轮存款利率下调预期升温 市场预计PSL或再次重启 智通财经5月9日电,新一期智通财经"C50风向指数"结果显示,多家市场机构预计,降准、降息落地 后,货币政策将呈现持续宽松的特征,资金利率中枢有望进一步下行。在20家参与调查的市场机构中, 19家认为二季度货币政策走向实质性宽松,16家预计2025年货币政策维持宽松基调。17家市场机构料下 调政策利率10BP后,1年期和5年期LPR也将同步下行10BP,新一轮存款利率调降或将开启。此外,为 配合政策性金融工具协同发力,抵押补充贷款(PSL)可能再次重启。(智通财经记者 夏淑媛) ...
降准降息落地,信用债ETF天弘(159398)昨日大涨0.15%,近5日获资金净流入超1.7亿元
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the implementation of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy to support employment, businesses, and market stability [1][2] - The Tianhong credit bond ETF (159398) experienced a net inflow of over 170 million yuan in the past five days, reflecting positive market sentiment following the monetary policy adjustments [2] - The recent interest rate cut of 0.1 percentage points and the upcoming reserve requirement ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points are expected to benefit short-term instruments and support a downward trend in interest rates [1][2] Group 2 - The credit bond default rate continues to decline, and the market has fully priced in the positive effects of the policy, leading to a significant compression of risk premiums [2] - Future assessments of the credit bond market suggest that higher coupon bonds in May still hold certainty, with potential for value recovery and further downward movement in yields [2] - The current policy aims to prevent the spread of credit risks while maintaining low credit spreads, indicating a stable outlook for the credit bond market [2]
央行“双降”之后,还有哪些政策值得期待
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-05-08 12:21
Core Viewpoint - The recent press conference on May 7 highlighted a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, indicating a strong commitment from the authorities to support the economy amid increasing external pressures [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The conference signaled a clear shift towards further monetary easing, including measures such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [2]. - Starting May 15, the RRR will be lowered by 0.5 percentage points, expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market [2]. - The policy interest rates, including the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, will be reduced from 1.5% to 1.4%, with the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) anticipated to decrease by about 0.1 percentage points [2]. Structural Policies - New structural monetary policy tools will be introduced to support sectors like technology innovation, consumption expansion, and inclusive finance [3]. - The quota for technology innovation and technical transformation re-loans will increase from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan, and a new 500 billion yuan re-loan for service consumption and elderly care will be established [3]. Economic Context - The need for enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments is emphasized due to increasing economic downward pressure from external shocks, particularly in the context of trade tensions [3][4]. - The financial market's stability is crucial, especially following significant fluctuations in international markets due to tariff policies [3]. Future Expectations - There is anticipation for new policy tools to be introduced, particularly those aimed at supporting technology innovation and stabilizing foreign trade [5][6]. - The implementation of counter-cyclical measures will depend on the intensity of external shocks, with expectations for a gradual acceleration in fiscal policy [6][7].
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250508
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 06:05
投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年5月8日 贾利军 从业资格证号: F0256916 投资咨询证号: Z0000671 电话: 021-80128600-8632 邮箱:jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号: F03092124 投资咨询证号: Z0018827 电话: 021-80128600-8631 刘慧峰 从业资格证号: F3033924 投资咨询证号: Z0013026 电话: 021-80128600-8621 邮箱:Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号: F03091165 投资咨询证号: Z0019876 邮箱:liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号: F03089928 投资咨询证号: Z0019740 电话:021-80128600-8622 冯冰 从业资格证号:F3077183 投资咨询证号: Z0016121 电话:021-80128600-8616 邮箱:fengb@qh168.com.cn 宏观金融: 央行超预期降准和降息,美联储维持利率不变 【宏观】 海外方面,美联储按兵不动维持利率不变,以及 ...
黑色商品日报-20250508
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 05:31
黑色商品日报(2025 年 5 月 8 日) 黑色商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢:昨日螺纹盘面小幅反弹,截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3098 元/吨,较上一交易收盘价格 | 窄幅整理 | | | 上涨 21 元/吨,涨幅为 0.68%,持仓减少 3.02 万手。现货价格小幅上涨,成交回升,唐山地区迁安普方坯 | | | | 价格上涨 40 元/吨至 2980 元/吨,杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 10 元/吨至 3190 元/吨,全国建材成交量 | | | | 11.66 万吨。据钢谷网数据,本周全国建材产量下降 0.32 万吨至 426.98 万吨,社库下降 20.57 万吨至 637.92 | | | | 万吨,厂库增加 3.92 万吨至 320.45 万吨,建材表需下降 56.51 万吨至 443.63 万吨。受五一假期影响,本 | | | | 周库存降幅明显收窄,表需大幅回落,基本符合预期。央行宣布下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点,从 2025 年 5 | | | | 月 8 日起,由此前的 1.50%调整为 ...
银河证券每日晨报-20250508
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-05-08 02:44
每日晨报 2025年5月8日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎:010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码:S0130511090001 要闻 4 月外汇储备规模环比上升 1.27% www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:货币先行,多箭齐发。从政策要求来看,4月政治局会议要求加紧加快 既定政策的落实落地,一方面再度明确适时降准降息,另一方面财政工具加快 落实发行使用,二季度将迎来政府债供给高峰,货币政策配合的必要性亦进一 步提升。实际上,近年来,每一轮政策放松往往以"货币政策先行"为主要特 征。从上述角度出发,我们认为后续货币政策仍将呈现持续宽松的特征,降准 降息仍有空间。PSL也可能再度重启,新型政策性金融工具也有望适时推出。 0 固收:止盈情绪加剧,债市不空。债市怎么看?5月债市供给量偏高下,资金 面或维持宽松,此外关税压力下外需对宏观经济的实质冲击影响落地,短期债 市不空。考虑到十债收益率目前已接近前期低点,收益率下行最顺畅阶段或已 过去,预计短期债市仍以震荡 ...