值得一提的是，本次降息决策并未得到全体联邦市场公开委员会（FOMC）投票委员支持。决议声明显示，有2人投票反对降息25个基点，其中包括美联 储新任理事斯蒂芬·米兰，他倾向于在本次会议上降息50个基点。 美联储再次动手！ 北京时间10月30日凌晨2点，美联储宣布，降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率从4.00%～4.25%降至3.75%～4.00%，符合市场预期。同时，美联储决定从12月 1日起结束缩减资产负债表（缩表）的计划。 美联储主席鲍威尔在随后召开的新闻发布会上表示，在本次会议讨论中，对于12月应如何行动，官员们存在明显分歧。12月议息会议再次降息并非板上钉 钉。政府停摆可能会影响12月的议息会议，在缺乏数据的情况下，可能有必要更加谨慎，经济数据缺失可能构成暂停利率调整的理由。 受此影响，交易员下调了对美联储12月降息的押注，美股三大指数全线跳水，盘中一度集体翻绿，随后纳指迅速翻红，道指、标普500指数尾盘跌幅有所 收窄，美元指数则直线拉升。有分析指出，鲍威尔的表态给美联储后续的政策前景增添了巨大的不确定性。 美联储宣布：降息 北京时间10月30日凌晨2点，美联储宣布，将联邦基金利率从4.00%～4.25%降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 and a cumulative reduction of 150 basis points in this cycle [1][3]. Market Impact - The U.S. stock market is expected to continue rising, with potential fluctuations before the end of the year; foreign capital is generally optimistic [6]. - Following comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding uncertainty around December's rate actions, U.S. stocks experienced a drop, although tech stocks like NVIDIA and Apple showed strong performance [12]. - The yield on two-year U.S. Treasury bonds surged to 3.59%, while the dollar index rose slightly, and the onshore RMB depreciated against the dollar [13]. Economic Outlook - Powell indicated that the December rate cut is not guaranteed, and uncertainties such as a government shutdown could impact economic activity [10][11]. - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased to 65%, down from 90% prior to the meeting [11]. - The Fed plans to end its balance sheet reduction on December 1, with indications that it may be time to halt quantitative tightening [11]. Emerging Markets - The attractiveness of emerging markets is expected to increase as U.S. Treasury yields decline, which may lower global financing costs and support better performance in global stock markets [19].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to halt its bond-selling program and has cut its Federal Funds Rate from 4.25% to 4% due to concerns over the weakening jobs market in the US [1][2] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced it would stop its balance sheet run-off, indicating elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook and increased downside risks to employment [2] - The Bank of England is under pressure to follow the Fed's lead in halting its active selling of UK bonds, which has been criticized for increasing government borrowing costs [3][6] Group 2 - During the pandemic, central banks engaged in quantitative easing by purchasing large amounts of bonds to support financial markets, which has now shifted to quantitative tightening [4] - The Fed's balance sheet has decreased from nearly $9 trillion in 2022 to approximately $6.6 trillion today as it allows bond purchases to run off [5] - The Bank of England's roadmap for slowing its bond sales program may be influenced by the Fed's recent decision, potentially leading to a halt in its bond sales by 2026 [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Jerome Powell, indicates that the U.S. economy is experiencing moderate expansion, but the government shutdown may temporarily hinder economic activity. The labor market is gradually cooling, with rising downside risks to employment, yet initial jobless claims remain low, suggesting a slow decline rather than a rapid downturn [1][2]. Economic Outlook - Powell expects the economic growth rate for the year to be around 1.6%, lower than the previous year. He emphasizes that there has been no significant deterioration across various economic sectors [2]. - The Fed's monetary policy remains moderately restrictive, with inflation slightly above target levels. The core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) is projected to be around 2.3% to 2.4%, while inflation excluding tariffs is only 0.5% to 0.6% above the 2% target [1][3]. Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Fed plans to end its balance sheet reduction on December 1, citing recent pressures in the money market that necessitate immediate adjustments. Powell notes that the benefits of continuing quantitative tightening (QT) are diminishing, and the Fed will maintain stability in the short term [3]. - Powell acknowledges that there is no zero-risk policy path, and the balance of risks has shifted. The recent rate cuts are steps toward a more neutral policy stance, but the decision for further rate adjustments in December remains uncertain due to data shortages caused by the government shutdown [2][4]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's statements, the dollar index rose by 0.60%, while the two-year Treasury yield surged to 3.59%. The stock market experienced a downturn as traders adjusted their expectations for a December rate cut, now estimated at 65%, down from 90% prior to the meeting [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that Powell's comments reflect internal tensions within the Fed regarding further rate cuts, especially with inflation remaining high. This has led to a temporary market reaction, as investors had anticipated more aggressive rate cuts to stimulate the economy [5][6].

要点： 美联储连续两次降息25基点，行动符合市场预期。 美联储缩表持续三年半后告终，决定12月起以短期国债替代到期MBS持仓。 两名反对利率决议的FOMC票委中，特朗普"钦点"的新晋理事米兰和上次会议一样主张降息 50基点，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德支持按兵不动。 声明重申"鉴于风险平衡已转变"决定降息，将"最近的"数据指标换为"可获得的"，新增指 出，劳动力市场近期指标与政府关门前趋势相符，称就业下行风险"近几个月增加"。 "新美联储通讯社"：联储继续努力防止近期就业放缓的趋势恶化，但经济数据缺失使未来利 率走向变得扑朔迷离。 本次降息决定完全在投资者意料之中。到本周二收盘，芝商所（CME）工具显示，期货市场预计联储 本周降息25个基点的概率达99.9%，12月下次会议继续降息25基点的概率为91%。这显示，市场已几乎 完全消化今年内合计降息三次的预期。9月上次FOMC会后公布的利率展望显示，多数联储决策者预计 的今年降息次数由6月公布的两次提高到三次。 和前两次会议一样，本次会上，美联储决策层依然没有就利率行动达成统一。包括美国总统特朗普"钦 点"的新任理事米兰在内，两名FOMC委员投票反对降息25个基点的决 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussions regarding economic assessments and monetary policy decisions are ongoing, with no predetermined conclusions for the upcoming December meeting, highlighting diverse opinions among participants [4]. Economic Assessment - Current economic assessments indicate that inflation risks are skewed to the upside, while employment risks are to the downside, suggesting a complex economic landscape that cannot be addressed simultaneously with existing tools [2]. - Different forecasts exist among participants, reflecting varying levels of risk aversion towards inflation and employment outcomes [3]. Monetary Policy and Balance Sheet Management - The committee has indicated a gradual tightening in money market conditions, with significant tightening observed in recent weeks [8]. - The balance sheet is currently shrinking at a slow pace, with a decision to freeze its size effective December 1, allowing markets time to adapt [9]. - The reduction of reserves will continue as non-reserve liabilities grow, indicating a strategic approach to balance sheet management [7].

【导读】美联储降息25个基点 大家好，北京时间10月30日凌晨两点，美联储以10比2的投票结果，将基准利率下调25个基点至3.75%-4.00%，为连续第二次会议降息，尽管 因政府停摆导致对经济的可见性不足，此举仍在市场预期之内。 除降息外，美联储宣布将于12月1日结束其缩减资产购买——即"量化紧缩"（QT）的进程。 一起关注一下这次降息有哪些重点内容。 理事米兰再次投下反对票，倾向于更快行动、一次性降息50个基点。圣路易斯联储主席施密德也投了反对票，但理由相反——他主张本次不 降息。 美联储力求在充分就业与物价稳定之间取得平衡。不过，近来官员表示就业面临的风险略高。 另外，美联储表示将自12月1日起停止缩减资产组合，结束始于2022年的进程。此后，美联储已抛减逾2万亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持 证券（MBS），使资产负债表降至不足6.6万亿美元，为2020年以来最低水平。 疫情后，为支持经济，在将基准利率降至接近零的同时，美联储进行了数万亿美元的资产购买。 以下是美联储的声明全文。 可获得的指标显示，经济活动一直以温和的步伐扩张。今年就业增长放缓，失业率小幅上升但截至8月仍处于低位；更为近期的指标与上述情 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive meeting with a rate cut, despite uncertainties due to government shutdowns [2][4]. Group 1: Rate Cut Details - The decision to cut rates was made with a 10 to 2 vote, with dissenting opinions from members advocating for either a larger cut or no cut at all [4][10]. - The Federal Reserve will end its quantitative tightening process on December 1, having reduced its balance sheet by over $2 trillion since 2022 [3][6]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Fed acknowledged a lack of data due to the government shutdown, which has affected the availability of key economic indicators such as non-farm payrolls and retail sales [4][5]. - Recent indicators suggest a moderate expansion in economic activity, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [4][8]. Group 3: Inflation and Employment - Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, with the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showing an annual inflation rate of 3%, driven by rising energy costs and tariffs [5][6]. - The Fed aims to balance maximum employment with price stability, noting that risks to employment have increased recently [6][8]. Group 4: Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the rate cut, U.S. stock markets did not experience significant volatility [11]. - Other central banks in the region, including Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE, also lowered their rates by 25 basis points in response to the Fed's decision [12].

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a quarter point to a new range of 3.75% to 4% [1] - There were two dissents regarding the decision, with one governor advocating for a 50 basis point cut and another preferring no change at all [1][5] Quantitative Tightening and Balance Sheet Management - The Federal Reserve announced it will stop quantitative tightening and the roll-off of its balance sheet starting in December [1][5] - Future rolloffs of treasuries and mortgage-backed securities will be reinvested into T-bills, marking a shift in strategy [2] Economic Indicators and Outlook - The Fed noted that economic activity has expanded at a moderate pace, indicating a slight upgrade from previous assessments [2][3] - Job gains have slowed, but unemployment remains low as of August, with recent indicators aligning with these trends [3] - Inflation has increased since earlier this year and remains somewhat elevated, consistent with previous characterizations [4]

Jerome Powel Bitcoin. Photo by BeInCrypto The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on Wednesday, marking its second rate cut this year. The central bank said economic growth remains moderate while job gains have slowed and unemployment has edged up. Inflation, however, remains “somewhat elevated,” keeping the Fed cautious about further policy easing. Fed Balances Inflation and Labor Market Risks The decision also confirmed that the Fed will end quantitativ ...