Core Insights - The gold market in November 2025 is characterized by "high-level consolidation and tug-of-war between bulls and bears," with international gold prices testing the $4000 per ounce mark repeatedly [1] - The recent tax policy changes and brand premium differentiation have led to a three-tier pricing system in the domestic market, impacting the wholesale market significantly [4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The new tax policy exempts standard gold traded through the Shanghai Gold Exchange and futures exchanges from VAT, while off-market transactions incur a 13% VAT, affecting the Shenzhen Shui Bei wholesale market [4] - The price gap between Shui Bei market gold and brand retail prices has narrowed to approximately 90 yuan per gram due to increased costs for some merchants [4] - Major banks like ICBC and CCB have paused gold accumulation services, raising concerns about liquidity tightening, although ICBC quickly resumed operations, indicating a focus on "regulating transactions" rather than "suppressing the market" [4] Group 2: Investment Sentiment - Despite ongoing uncertainties in the Middle East, market pricing of "extreme risks" has become more rational, with gold ETF holdings decreasing for four consecutive weeks, equivalent to a reduction of 69 tons of physical gold [4] - Speculative long positions have dropped to a three-month low, and the RSI indicator has decreased from 82 to 54, indicating a release of short-term overbought pressure [4] Group 3: Central Bank Support - Central bank gold purchases have become a long-term support factor, with global central banks acquiring 220 tons in Q3 2025, bringing the total for the year to 634 tons, nearing record levels from 2024 [4] - This "structural demand" effectively smooths out short-term volatility in the gold market [4] Group 4: Price Levels and Future Outlook - In the short term, gold prices need to test the support level of $3800 per ounce; a drop below this level could trigger programmatic selling [4] - The market is currently in a phase of "macro support versus technical pressure," with key variables to watch: 1. Federal Reserve policy: December rate cut probabilities have decreased by 25 basis points, but forward rate futures are pricing in a cumulative 50 basis point cut in 2025 [4] 2. Geopolitical risks: An escalation in the Middle East could reignite safe-haven demand [4] 3. Inflation persistence: The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 123%, and if secondary inflation expectations rise, gold's inflation-hedging properties will become more pronounced [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry is expected to continue its oscillatory consolidation. Crude oil should be treated with an oscillatory mindset. PX is in a strong position, and the short - term price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish. PTA's supply - demand pattern shows an improvement expectation, and the price is expected to be supported [3][14]. - Most products in the energy and chemical sector are expected to oscillate, with some showing a slightly bullish or bearish tendency in the short - term, depending on factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - On November 6, 2025, the Chinese A - share market rose, and the commodity market sentiment generally improved. PX and PTA in the energy and chemical sector performed well, with PX rising more than PTA, and TA's processing fee per ton dropping to 120 yuan/ton. The rise of aromatics is related to the high cracking spread of global gasoline, and there has been arbitrage from Asian blending products to the Americas recently. The downstream demand for polyester remains healthy, and the loom operating rate has increased week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Product - by - Product Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure persists, geopolitical risks remain, and the price is expected to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: Saudi Arabia has lowered the official selling price for Asia, corresponding to the downward shift of the Middle - East oil premium center in the past month. Russian refineries have been attacked, and the US refined oil inventory has decreased smoothly since October. The overseas gasoline and diesel markets remain strong, and the reduction of refined oil inventory pressure and the strong cracking spread support the crude oil demand. However, the continuous inventory build - up in reality is difficult to change, so the price oscillates [9]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price may test the 3200 yuan/ton resistance level again. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production in December, the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, and the situation between the US and Venezuela is under control. The asphalt futures price has fallen below the important support level of 3200 yuan/ton, which may turn into a resistance level. The asphalt - fuel oil spread has fallen below 400 yuan/ton, the production schedule in November has decreased significantly, but the demand has entered the off - season. The supply shortage problem has been resolved, and the driving force for the high premium of asphalt has weakened. The pricing weight of asphalt futures has returned to Shandong, and the inventory build - up pressure is still large [11]. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The fuel oil is expected to oscillate weakly. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production in December, the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, but the premium on Russian products in Europe and the US still exists. The fuel oil supply in the Asia - Pacific region in November is expected to decrease due to the decline in Russian exports. However, the refinery processing demand is weak, and the fuel oil demand is still weak as it has entered the off - season [11]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The refined oil market is strong, and low - sulfur fuel oil may run strongly. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weak oscillation of crude oil, and the 3500 yuan/ton resistance level is effective in the short - term. The main product attribute of low - sulfur fuel oil is strong, and the decline in Russian refined oil exports has driven the rebound of the gasoline and diesel cracking spread, supporting low - sulfur fuel oil. However, it faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil is low, and it is expected to follow the movement of crude oil [13]. 3.2.5 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The 2100 yuan/ton integer level provides some support, and methanol is expected to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: The methanol futures price oscillated on November 6. The domestic methanol factory operating rate remains high, resulting in sufficient supply. The port inventory is relatively high, which still suppresses the price in the short - term. However, considering the possible disturbances in Iran in winter, methanol still has long - buying value and should be treated with an oscillatory view in the short - term [28]. 3.2.6 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The export information has been confirmed, and urea is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. - **Main Logic**: On November 6, the supply - demand pattern of urea remained loose. Although the supply has returned to a high level after the end of plant maintenance, the demand is weak due to the end of winter wheat sowing. The high inventory pressure still exists, but the coal cost provides strong support. Combined with the speculation about export information in the market, urea is expected to oscillate strongly [28]. 3.2.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the rebound height is limited under the fermentation of market sentiment. - **Main Logic**: The polyester chain products have strengthened, but EG's own supply - demand is weak, and the port inventory has continued to increase this week. The overall price elasticity of EG will be significantly suppressed in the medium - term. Although the factory operating rate of EG has decreased this week, providing some support to the price, the long - term inventory build - up pressure is large, and the rebound height is limited [20][21]. 3.2.8 PX - **Viewpoint**: PX is leading the polyester chain strongly, and the short - term market sentiment is enthusiastic. - **Main Logic**: The cost change is limited. There are rumors of production cuts and PX factory maintenance in the market, driving PX and PTA prices up. PX has been in a strong position in 2025, with continuous inventory reduction and tight spot liquidity. The supply of PX is expected to be tight in the first half of next year, and the positive growth of downstream demand supports PX demand to some extent [14]. 3.2.9 PTA - **Viewpoint**: After the meeting, PTA plants have stopped production in batches, and the market sentiment continues to ferment. - **Main Logic**: Affected by market news, the PTA futures price has strengthened significantly. Although it is difficult for enterprises to reach a coordinated production - cut agreement, there are many planned plant disturbances in November. The supply - demand pattern of PTA is expected to improve, and the downward compression space of the PTA processing spread is limited, but the upward space depends on whether there is more than expected production cut [14]. 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Caught between rising costs and falling demand expectations, the processing fee is passively compressed. - **Main Logic**: The price of upstream raw materials has risen due to capital speculation, and short - fiber has followed the cost increase but with a smaller increase, resulting in a passive compression of the processing fee. Although the downstream procurement has increased in the afternoon under the influence of market sentiment, the overall sales this week have been weak, and short - fiber has continued to accumulate inventory [22][23]. 3.2.11 Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: It follows the rise of raw materials passively. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures have risen, driving some polyester bottle - chip factories to raise their prices. The market trading atmosphere is okay, and the processing fee is within a stable range [24][25]. 3.2.12 Polypropylene (PP) - **Viewpoint**: As the price drops, the trading volume increases, and PP is expected to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: The downstream trading volume has increased as the price drops. The price of crude oil oscillates, and OPEC+ has shown a cautious attitude towards increasing production. PP's own fundamental support is limited. As the peak season fades, the upstream and mid - stream still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, and the production pressure is large due to the decrease in maintenance and the increase in production capacity [31][32]. 3.2.13 Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: The downstream trading volume has increased, and LLDPE is expected to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: The LLDPE futures price oscillates. The price of crude oil oscillates, and OPEC+ has shown a cautious attitude towards increasing production. LLDPE's own fundamental support is limited. As the peak season fades, the upstream and mid - stream still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, and the production pressure is large due to the decrease in maintenance and the increase in production capacity [30]. 3.2.14 PVC - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and PVC is expected to oscillate weakly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the macro - disturbances in November have subsided. At the micro - level, the PVC fundamentals are under pressure, with stable costs. The upstream maintenance has ended in early November, and PVC production will increase. The downstream operating rate has recovered, but only the low - price procurement volume has increased. The PVC export order signing has weakened this week, and the anti - dumping measure suppresses the export expectation [34]. 3.2.15 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak expectations, caustic soda is expected to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the macro - disturbances in November have subsided. At the micro - level, the fundamentals of caustic soda have improved this week, but the driving force for continuous improvement is limited. The alumina production capacity has decreased, the demand for caustic soda from Weiqiao is still high, the new alumina project in Guangxi in the first quarter of 2026 will boost the demand for caustic soda, the non - aluminum operating rate is stable, and the replenishment intention is not high. The maintenance of caustic soda plants will end in early November, and the production will increase month - on - month [35]. 3.3 Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. have changed to different extents. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX has increased by 22 yuan/ton [37]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different products also show different changes. For example, the basis of asphalt has increased by 17 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt is 7690 [38]. - **Inter - product Spreads**: The spreads between different products, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., have also changed. For example, the 1 - month TA - EG spread has increased by 78 yuan/ton [40].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an early morning report on crude oil and refined oil, released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on November 7, 2025 [2] Group 2: Daily News - India's Reliance Industries, the largest private refiner, is seeking to sell some Middle - Eastern oil cargoes to domestic and international buyers, which is unusual as it's usually a major buyer. It's trying to sell oil grades like Murban and Upper Zakum on the spot market. After US sanctions on Russia, it bought millions of barrels of crude from the Middle East last month [3] - Kazakhstan's crude oil production in October decreased by 10% month - on - month to 169 million barrels per day [3] - Russia's Tuapse refinery stopped fuel exports after a drone attack on November 2 [3] - Global commodity trader Mercuria said that a supply glut is slowly forming and may hit the market in the next few months [3] Group 3: Inventory US Inventory - In the week ending October 31, US crude oil exports increased by 0.6 million barrels per day to 436.7 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production increased by 0.7 million barrels to 1365.1 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 5.202 million barrels to 421 million barrels (a 1.25% increase), and strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 498,000 barrels to 409.6 million barrels (a 0.12% increase). The average four - week supply of US crude oil products was 2034.4 million barrels per day, a 1.15% decrease from the same period last year. US crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 592.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 87.3 million barrels per day from the previous week [4] - US EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma in the week ending October 31 was 30,000 barrels, compared with 133,400 barrels in the previous week [4] - US EIA gasoline inventory in the week ending October 31 was - 4.729 million barrels (expected - 1.14 million barrels, previous value - 5.941 million barrels), and refined oil inventory was - 643,000 barrels (expected - 1.969 million barrels, previous value - 3.362 million barrels) [5] UAE Inventory - As of the week ending November 5, the total refined oil inventory in Fujairah, UAE increased by 851,000 barrels to 18.607 million barrels. Light distillate inventory decreased by 1.236 million barrels to 6.713 million barrels, medium distillate inventory decreased by 79,000 barrels to 3.234 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 2.166 million barrels to 8.66 million barrels [5] Domestic Inventory - From October 23 - 30, domestic major refinery operations decreased, independent refinery operations increased slightly, gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated, independent refinery gasoline inventory increased while diesel inventory decreased, and the profits of major and independent refineries both decreased [5] Group 4: Weekly Viewpoint - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. On Friday, US media reported that the US was about to launch a military attack on Venezuela, causing oil prices to rise. On Sunday, OPEC + members confirmed an increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December. According to data provided by Vortexa and organized by institutions, Russia's average daily seaborne oil product exports in the first 26 days of October were 1.89 million barrels, and Kpler's preliminary data showed that Russia's average daily seaborne crude oil exports in October were 5.198 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 460,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 321,000 barrels per day [6] - Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories slightly increased this week, while floating storage inventories slightly decreased. Affected by a significant decline in net crude oil imports, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.858 million barrels, and gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Refining profits in Europe and the US rebounded this week [6] - Short - term geopolitical risks have resurfaced, but the pressure on crude oil supply release is high. Brazil's P78 has been put into production, OPEC has further increased production, and the US total production remains at a high level. Crude oil will maintain a weak pattern [6] Group 5: Price Data - The report provides price data for WTI, BRENT, DUBAI, SC, OMAN, and other oil products from October 31 to November 6, 2025, as well as price differences and changes [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Recently, the energy and chemical sector has diverged from the crude oil market, with the fundamentals driving the trend. Key products like synthetic rubber and styrene have hit new lows, and methanol has also shown a downward trend. Crude oil has rebounded recently due to geopolitical disturbances and short - term supply - demand factors. Given the high probability of a US military action against Venezuela, short - term geopolitical risks may resurface, and it is recommended to take profit on oil - chemical related positions and wait for opportunities to re - enter short positions [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Crude Oil - **Logic**: After digesting the impact of US sanctions on Russia, the medium - term logic is the downward pressure from the gradual realization of supply - demand surplus. However, the supply - demand logic has not been smoothly realized recently. The high probability of a US military action against Venezuela may bring a similar impact to the market as the bombing of Iran in July. It is recommended to take profit on short positions [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term oscillating structure on the hourly chart. It oscillated during the day. Short positions on the hourly cycle can be held according to technical analysis, with a stop - loss reference at 471, but it is recommended to stop loss and wait and see due to geopolitical risks [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: It is the most bearish product in the energy and chemical sector, with weak reality and weak expectations. The core logic is the continuous accumulation of factory and port inventories due to new device production and slow demand growth. There is a risk of price collapse under the pressure of over - inventory. The possible US military action against Venezuela may bring short - term emotional disturbances [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. After hitting a new low today, it rebounded with reduced positions at the end of the session. The short - term downward structure remains unchanged, with a short - term resistance at 6345. Short positions on the hourly cycle can be held according to technical analysis, but it is recommended to take profit and wait for a rebound on the daily chart to re - enter short positions due to geopolitical risks [6]. Rubber - **Logic**: Tire demand is stable, but the willingness to stock up is low due to inventory pressure and high raw material prices. The supply is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter. There is no obvious short - term contradiction, and there is a certain bullish driving force due to continuous inventory reduction recently. The pressure of inventory accumulation in the peak season should be monitored in the medium term [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. It increased in volume during the day and closed with a long Yang line after a slight reduction in positions at the end of the session. The downward structure remains unchanged, but the downward momentum has weakened, with a short - term resistance at 15170. It is recommended to wait and see on the hourly cycle [9]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The high supply pressure of butadiene rubber persists, but the supply - demand contradiction is gradually weakening due to stable tire demand. The main driving factor is the cost - side butadiene, whose high supply and high inventory situation has led to cost loosening and the product hitting a new low since listing. The possible US military action against Venezuela may bring short - term emotional disturbances [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. It rebounded with a long Yang line and reduced positions today. The short - term downward structure remains unchanged, with a short - term resistance at 10520. Short positions on the hourly cycle can be held according to technical analysis, but it is recommended to take profit and wait for a rebound on the daily chart to re - enter short positions due to geopolitical risks [13]. PX - **Logic**: High profits drive high - level operation, with sufficient supply and stable demand. The main logic is to follow the fluctuations of crude oil. Attention should be paid to whether there are production - reduction measures in the polyester industry meeting [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. It showed abnormal growth with increased positions in the afternoon, and the short - term upward trend may accelerate, with a short - term support at 6560. It is recommended to wait and see on the hourly cycle [15]. PTA - **Logic**: There is no significant supply - demand contradiction. The main logic is to follow the cost fluctuations of crude oil. Attention should be paid to whether there are production - reduction measures in the polyester industry meeting [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. It showed abnormal growth with increased positions in the afternoon, and the short - term structure has reversed, with a short - term support at 4550. It is recommended to wait and see on the hourly cycle [19]. PP - **Logic**: The commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant has increased the supply pressure, and the downstream demand recovery is limited. The supply - demand expectation is weak, and attention should be paid to the downward pressure on the cost side brought by the decline of crude oil [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. It oscillated during the day, rebounded with reduced positions after hitting a new low. The short - term resistance is at 6530. Short positions on the hourly cycle can be held according to technical analysis, but it is recommended to take profit due to geopolitical risks [23]. Methanol - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory have been pressing down, but as Iran enters the heating season, the short - term buying opportunity is approaching. The possible US military action against Venezuela may have a limited impact on methanol, but it is recommended to take profit on previous short positions [25]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term and short - term downward structure on the daily and hourly charts respectively. It oscillated during the day, with a short - term resistance at 2210. It may stabilize in the short term after two consecutive days of rebound with reduced positions. Short positions on the hourly cycle can be held according to technical analysis, and the stop - profit should be moved down to 2150. It is recommended to take profit due to geopolitical risks [25]. PVC - **Logic**: The supply remains at a high level, the domestic real - estate demand has collapsed, and the social inventory has accumulated to the highest level in history. The high - production, high - inventory, and weak - demand structure makes it difficult to have an upward driving force [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. It oscillated during the day, with a short - term resistance at 4660. Short positions on the hourly cycle can be held according to technical analysis [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: The supply is at a high level, and the supply pressure will further increase with new capacity. The continuous inventory accumulation recently has increased the downward driving force on the market. However, short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil should be vigilant [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. It oscillated during the day, with a short - term resistance at 3950. Short positions on the hourly cycle can be held according to technical analysis, but it is recommended to take profit due to geopolitical risks [31]. Plastic - **Logic**: The commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant has increased the supply pressure, and the downstream demand in the peak season is weak. The supply - demand expectation is weak. However, short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil should be vigilant [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. It oscillated during the day, with a short - term resistance at 6850. Short positions on the hourly cycle can be held according to technical analysis, but it is recommended to take profit due to geopolitical risks [34]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory situation persists. The demand has further weakened due to the planned maintenance of 4 production lines in the glass industry on the weekend. The downward driving force of the fundamentals remains unchanged [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. It oscillated during the day and was in an oscillating state on the 15 - minute cycle, with a short - term resistance at 1245. Remaining short positions on the hourly cycle can be held [36]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The high - level operation continues, and the supply pressure increases with new capacity. The profit of downstream alumina is under pressure, and the demand growth is limited. The supply - demand driving force remains weak under the high - inventory situation compared with the same period [40]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. It rebounded with reduced positions today, but the short - term downward structure remains unchanged, with a short - term resistance at 2400. It is recommended to wait and see on the hourly cycle [40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2512 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and oscillatory - weak respectively, and the intraday trend also being oscillatory - weak [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - period Views - **Short - term**: The crude oil 2512 contract shows an oscillatory trend [1] - **Medium - term**: The crude oil 2512 contract shows an oscillatory - weak trend [1] - **Intraday**: The crude oil 2512 contract shows an oscillatory - weak trend [1][5] 3.2 Price and Driving Logic - After the meeting between the leaders of China and the US, the overall results were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - bullish sentiment was digested, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and there was a profit - taking phenomenon. The escalation of the South American geopolitical conflict due to the US troop increase in the Caribbean Sea last weekend boosted the international crude oil premium, which hedged geopolitical risks to some extent. On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract maintained an oscillatory - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.95% to 457.7 yuan/barrel. It is expected that on Thursday, the contract will maintain an oscillatory - weak trend [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil prices maintained a volatile trend. On Friday, US media reported that the US was about to launch a military attack on Venezuela, causing oil prices to rise. On Sunday, OPEC+ members confirmed a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December. Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories slightly increased, while floating storage inventories slightly decreased. Affected by a significant decline in net crude oil imports, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.858 million barrels, and gasoline and diesel inventories also decreased. Refining profits in Europe and the US rebounded this week. Although short - term geopolitical risks have resurfaced, the pressure on crude oil supply release is relatively high. With the commissioning of Brazil's P78, further production increases by OPEC, and the US maintaining a high total production, crude oil will maintain a weak pattern [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Changes - From October 29 to November 4, 2025, WTI crude oil prices decreased by $0.49, BRENT decreased by $0.75, and DUBAI decreased by $0.76. Among refined products, NYMEX RBOB increased by $0.67, and NYMEX HO increased by $3.93. For other related products, SC decreased by 4.40 yuan, and Japanese naphtha CFR decreased by $2.57 [3][12] b. Daily News - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending October 31 was 6.521 million barrels, with the previous value being - 4.02 million barrels. BP's CEO stated that oil demand remains strong, with aviation and petrochemical products driving a 1% increase in oil demand. TotalEnergies' CEO believes that global renewable energy will double by 2040, and there is no investment shortage in the oil market. The US Energy Department's deputy minister said that energy demand is rising rapidly, and the top priority is to replenish the strategic petroleum reserve. Brazil's National Petroleum Agency reported that the country's oil production in September was 3.915 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% [3][4] c. Inventory - According to the EIA report for the week ending October 24, US crude oil exports increased by 158,000 barrels per day to 4.361 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 15,000 barrels to 13.644 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.858 million barrels to 416 million barrels, a decrease of 1.62%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.753 million barrels per day, a 0.91% decrease compared to the same period last year; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 533,000 barrels to 409.1 million barrels, an increase of 0.13%; and crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.051 million barrels per day, a decrease of 867,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. US gasoline inventories decreased by 5.941 million barrels, and refined oil inventories decreased by 3.362 million barrels. From October 23 - 30, the operating rate of domestic main refineries decreased, while that of local refineries slightly increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated, with local refinery gasoline inventories increasing and diesel inventories decreasing. The profits of both main and local refineries decreased [4][5] d. Weekly View - This week, crude oil prices were volatile. On Friday, news of a potential US military attack on Venezuela drove up oil prices. On Sunday, OPEC+ confirmed a production increase in December. According to data, Russia's average daily seaborne oil product exports in the first 26 days of October were 1.89 million barrels, and the average daily seaborne crude oil exports in October were 5.198 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 460,000 barrels and a year - on - year increase of 321,000 barrels. Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories slightly increased, while floating storage inventories slightly decreased. Affected by a significant decline in net crude oil imports, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased. Gasoline and diesel inventories also decreased, and refining profits in Europe and the US rebounded. Despite short - term geopolitical risks, the pressure on crude oil supply release is high, and crude oil will maintain a weak pattern [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not specified [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not specified [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the market) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Not specified [1] Core Viewpoints - The oil market still faces medium - term surplus pressure, but short - term geopolitical risks exist. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to short - position configuration opportunities after geopolitical risks are repriced [1] - The absolute price of fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. The supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to ease marginally, but the upward momentum is limited. The medium - term supply of high - sulfur fuel oil tends to be loose, and the crack spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to widen further [2] - The asphalt market is bearish. The main contract has fallen, and the fundamentals show negative signals, with prices expected to decline under pressure [3] - The LPG market is expected to fluctuate mainly, as the upward trend has ended, and the fundamentals lack strong support factors while the cost - side guidance turns bearish [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Crude oil has shown a fluctuating trend this week. The OPEC+ meeting last Sunday slightly exceeded expectations by pausing production increases in Q1 2026, but the market supply - demand surplus is expected to expand marginally in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. Short - term geopolitical risks around Russia and Venezuela still exist [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. The supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to ease marginally due to unexpected shutdowns and shipment adjustments at some refineries, but the upward momentum is limited. The medium - term supply of high - sulfur fuel oil tends to be loose [2] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract fell 2% today. Construction in the north is declining, and the year - on - year change in the shipment volume of 54 asphalt sample enterprises has turned negative since late October. The decline in commercial inventory has slowed down, and social inventory has increased year - on - year for the first time at the end of October. Prices are expected to decline under pressure [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The upward trend of the LPG market that started in mid - October has ended. The main contract fell 1.4% today, and the weekly LPG production volume has decreased. Chemical profit improvement has promoted demand growth, and the cooling weather has boosted combustion - end demand. The refinery storage rate has slightly decreased, while the full - storage rate has increased. The market is expected to fluctuate mainly [3]

Overall Key Points - The report analyzes the overnight performance and future trends of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives [2][3][4] Group 1: Energy Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fluctuated. The oil market has been rapidly accumulating inventory since September, with a 2.8% increase in inventory in the fourth quarter, including a 5.9% increase in crude oil inventory and a 2.1% decrease in refined oil inventory. The inventory accumulation of upstream crude oil is concentrated in the transit link. The OPEC+ meeting last Sunday slightly exceeded expectations, and the suspension of production increase in the first quarter of next year reflects the organization's management of the downward risk. However, according to the current production increase path, the market supply-demand surplus in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year still faces marginal expansion. Short-term oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the entry opportunity of the short-selling portfolio after the geopolitical risk is priced again [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market shows a structural differentiation. The medium-term supply pattern of high-sulfur fuel oil tends to be loose, and the previous high valuation faces correction pressure. The low-sulfur market has received short-term support, and the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to tighten. The price difference between high and low sulfur is expected to further widen [22] Asphalt - In late October, some refineries in Shandong and Hebei switched to producing residual oil and shut down, and the weekly output decreased. The construction in the north is gradually declining, and the construction in the northeast and northwest has gradually stopped under the influence of low temperatures. The south still has the demand for rush construction. Since late October, the year-on-year change in the shipment volume of 54 asphalt sample enterprises has shown a negative growth for the first time, and it is likely to continue the trend of negative year-on-year growth in the future. The decline of the overall commercial inventory has slowed down, and the social inventory has increased year-on-year for the first time at the end of October [23] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The LPG contract continued to fluctuate narrowly. The weekly LPG commodity volume decreased slightly, while the arrival volume increased significantly. The improvement of chemical profit has promoted the increase of demand, and the cooling in many places has driven the improvement of combustion demand. The market expects the overall demand to improve. The refinery storage capacity ratio decreased slightly, and the port storage capacity ratio increased. The marginal improvement of the fundamental expectation still supports LPG [24] Group 2: Metals Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October was slightly lower than expected and the previous value. Recently, many Fed officials have spoken out against a rate cut in December, reflecting internal differences. The US government shutdown is still in the game stage, and the non-farm payroll data this week may not be released. The market is waiting for new drivers, and precious metals have built a high-level shock platform. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [3] Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fell in late trading. The market is evaluating the copper consumption at the end of the year. The US ISM manufacturing PMI has contracted for the eighth consecutive month, and the high copper price in China has suppressed demand. However, compared with the second quarter of last year, the spot side has improved its passive adaptability in the environment of "weak supply and demand". At the same time, the domestic social inventory has accumulated to more than 200,000 tons, and there is still a certain space from the critical point of the lagging reflection of supply and demand. After the short-term copper price reached a high, there is a certain risk of correction. Attention should be paid to the support toughness of the MA20 moving average. Some long positions can be held based on the key moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 0.8 million tons compared with Thursday. Since October, the domestic inventory and spot performance have been average, and the apparent consumption is basically flat year-on-year. The macro sentiment dominates, and the resonance of the aluminum market fundamentals is limited. In the short term, it fluctuates strongly towards the high point in November 2024, but the upward space is cautiously viewed for the time being [5] - **Zinc**: The zinc ingot export window is open, the LME zinc inventory has increased slightly, and the SMM zinc social inventory has decreased to 161,700 tons. The divergence of the inventory between the domestic and foreign markets has temporarily stopped, and the cross-market arbitrage funds have the demand to take profits. The domestic mine TC continues to decline to 2,850 yuan/metal ton, and the imported mine TC also declines synchronously. The short-term rebound momentum of SHFE zinc is relatively strong. Short-term long positions can be participated, and the high rebound range is temporarily seen at 23,000-23,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Lead**: On Monday, the SMM lead social inventory slightly increased to 30,200 tons, which is generally low. The correction of SHFE lead is not smooth, and the fundamentals are mixed. The funds are more cautious to enter the market. The raw material overlap between recycled lead and primary lead smelters is increasing day by day. Under the background of winter storage, the smelting capacity is surplus, and the shortage of lead concentrate is intensifying. The price of waste batteries remains high and stable, and the cost of SHFE lead is strongly supported. The refined scrap price difference is 75 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 lead is at a discount of 125 yuan/ton to the nearby contract. Downstream enterprises tend to purchase low-priced recycled lead, and the trading of electrolytic lead is slightly sluggish. Affected by the game between cost and demand, SHFE lead is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,300-17,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel fluctuated narrowly, and the market trading was light. The weak downstream demand dominates the market. Although there are news of stainless steel mills reducing production, the actual implementation still needs to be observed. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,600 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 400 yuan, and the premium of electrowinning nickel is 50 yuan. The price of high-nickel pig iron is quoted at 926 yuan per nickel point, and the support brought by the rebound of the upstream price is weakening, which may drag down the price level of the entire nickel industry chain. The pure nickel inventory decreased by 700 tons to 48,800 tons, the nickel pig iron inventory increased by 500 tons to 29,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory increased by 400 tons to 947,000 tons. SHFE nickel is running weakly, and the center of gravity tends to move down [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, the tin price fluctuated weakly. The tin market lacks clear guidance and mainly follows the rhythm of the copper price. In addition to the interference of the rainy season on the transportation rhythm, the closure of the Dar es Salaam port in Tanzania may also affect the export speed of tin products. The tin price fluctuated at a high level for a long time in October, and the inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is generally average, but there is still demand for spot pricing. Last week, the social inventory of SMM and Steel Union continued to flow out slightly. Subjectively, it is recommended to short on rallies or wait for the right-side trading opportunity after a clear break [11] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Overnight, the iron ore futures fluctuated weakly, and the basis fluctuated recently. On the supply side, the global shipment volume decreased this period but is still at a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia and Brazil both decreased, but the Brazilian shipment is still at a high level in the same period. The domestic arrival volume increased significantly this period and reached a new high this year. On the demand side, the molten iron output decreased significantly last week, and the profitability of steel mills reached a new low this year, with further production reduction pressure in the future. The progress of the Sino-US trade agreement has alleviated the concern about weak exports, and an important domestic meeting has been held. After the short-term rebound of the iron ore futures, the market tends to realize some benefits. It is expected that the iron ore will fluctuate weakly at a high level [16] - **Coke**: The price fluctuated downward during the day. There is an expectation of a third round of price increase for coking coal. The coking profit is average, and the daily output decreased slightly. The coke inventory hardly changed. Currently, downstream enterprises purchase on demand in small quantities, and the inventory increased slightly. The purchasing intention of traders is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level, which supports the raw materials. However, the profit level of steel is average, and the pressure to reduce the price of raw materials is strong. The coke futures are at a premium, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal producing areas. The price may be more likely to rise than to fall [17] - **Coking Coal**: The price fluctuated downward during the day. The market sentiment declined rapidly due to the resumption of production of a small number of coal mines in the Wuhai production area after meeting the environmental protection standards, but most of the coal mines facing resource integration have not resumed production. It is judged that the price is difficult to continue to decline. The output of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions improved, and the transaction prices generally increased. The terminal inventory increased. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly month-on-month, and the production-side inventory decreased slightly. As the safety inspection team is about to enter the main coal-producing areas, attention should be paid to the relevant impacts. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level, which supports the raw materials. However, the profit level of steel is average, and the pressure to reduce the price of raw materials is strong. The coking coal futures are at a discount to the Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal producing areas. The price may be more likely to rise than to fall [18] - **Silicon Manganese**: The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, the molten iron output remained at a high level above 2.36 million tons. The weekly output of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the production remained at a high level. The silicon manganese inventory decreased slightly, and the spot and futures demand is still good. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month-on-month, and the spot ore was boosted by the futures. The manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. The price is likely to fluctuate narrowly [19] - **Silicon Iron**: The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, the molten iron output remained at a high level above 2.36 million tons. The export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The output of magnesium metal increased slightly month-on-month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of silicon iron remained at a high level, and the on-balance-sheet inventory continued to decline. The price is likely to fluctuate narrowly [20] Group 3: Chemicals Polyolefins - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The market is still dragged down by the demand side, and the bearish expectation of market participants remains unchanged. However, the positive impact of the maintenance of the Binzhou PDH unit will provide a window for bargain hunting and is expected to drive propylene to stop falling to a certain extent. For polyethylene, the number of domestic petrochemical maintenance units decreased, and the capacity of Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation, resulting in an increase in domestic supply. The demand for greenhouse films and mulch films weakened, and other downstream industries showed no bright spots. The enthusiasm of factories for raw material procurement was dull, and the overall trading volume was limited. For polypropylene, the impact of new capacity and the weakening of unit maintenance intensity are expected to increase the supply pressure. The downstream operating rate is stable, with rigid demand support, but the downstream profit is limited, and the raw material procurement is cautious. The demand is difficult to release continuously, which still suppresses the market [29] Other Chemicals - **Methanol**: The methanol futures continued to decline significantly at night. The import supply is expected to remain sufficient, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate. The profits of most downstream products are not good, and the overall support for the methanol market is insufficient. Some coastal MTO units have maintenance plans in the future, and the demand of traditional downstream industries is expected to enter the off-season as the weather gets colder. The situation of high port inventory and high import supply of methanol is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the weak downstream demand further suppresses the market. The inflection point of port inventory has not appeared, and it is necessary to wait for the substantial implementation of supply reduction and demand improvement [26] - **Pure Benzene**: The chemical products fell overall at night, and the price of general benzene fell below 5,500 yuan/ton again. The arrival volume increased and the提货 volume decreased, and the port inventory increased significantly on Monday. The units restarted this week, and the operating rate of pure benzene increased slightly. The purchasing sentiment for low-price spot goods is good, but there are negative factors such as high import volume and falling demand in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory accumulation rhythm in the future, and the monthly spread reverse arbitrage is recommended [27] - **Styrene**: The cost support is insufficient, and the improvement of the supply-demand situation is limited. The overall pressure remains. Although new units have been put into operation, the overall supply has still decreased slightly due to the sudden maintenance of individual units. The demand remains stable, and the supply-demand balance continues, but the high inventory structure is difficult to resolve, which keeps the price under pressure [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The price of calcium carbide decreased, and the cost support weakened. Under the weak reality, PVC is operating at a low level. Enterprises' inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased, but the industry inventory pressure is still large. The maintenance of some enterprises such as Shandong Xinfa, Xinjiang Tianye Tianneng Production Area, and Hangjin Technology has ended, and the supply is expected to continue to increase. The domestic demand is stable, and the export is mainly on the sidelines due to the Indian holiday and anti-dumping duties. With weak cost support and high supply and low demand, PVC may operate at a low level. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has become negative again, and the profit has narrowed. Some caustic soda enterprises have slightly raised the price, and it is operating strongly during the day. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, and the inventory pressure is large. The enterprises' maintenance has recovered, and the supply has increased. The profit of alumina has been compressed, and the operating rate has decreased slightly. Currently, the raw material inventory is high, and the replenishment intention is not strong. The non-aluminum demand growth is limited. The supply pressure of caustic soda is high, and the purchasing price of alumina has been lowered again. The downstream demand is average. It is expected that the futures price will operate at a low level. Further attention should be paid to the price trend of liquid chlorine. If the price continues to fall, the caustic soda price may rebound at a low level under the cost support [30] - **PX & PTA**: The prices of PX and PTA closed with a doji at night, and the center of gravity moved down. The units of Wuhua Petrochemical and Fujia Dahua restarted, and the supply of PX and PTA increased. The supply and demand of PX increased simultaneously, the polyester load was stable, and PTA has the pressure of inventory accumulation. Currently, the downstream demand is acceptable, but there is an expectation of weakening in the medium term. Under the expectation of PTA inventory accumulation, the reverse arbitrage idea is continued. Attention should be paid to the oil price fluctuation [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output of ethylene glycol decreased slightly, the port arrival forecast increased, and the inventory increased slightly on Monday. The Zhenhai Refining & Chemical unit is planned to restart, and the supply pressure will be further manifested. The ethylene glycol futures fell with increasing volume and open interest. The demand is expected to weaken in the medium term, and the inventory accumulation is expected to continue. The reverse arbitrage is recommended. Attention should be paid to the possibility of unit production reduction after the benefit decline [32] Group 4: Agricultural Products Grains - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal futures fluctuated strongly at night. The US soybeans are expected to have better sales due to the easing of Sino-US negotiations and continue to be strong. After the preliminary consensus was reached in the Sino-US-Malaysian economic and trade consultations, President Xi Jinping held a meeting with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea, and Sino-US relations may tend to ease. However, as of the time of publication, there is no official policy adjustment. There are already news that China has purchased some US soybeans, but it has not been confirmed through official channels. Currently, the domestic soybean arrival volume is sufficient, the soybean crushing volume is stable, the crushing profit has been repaired, and the soybean meal inventory has increased slightly this week. The atmosphere of Sino-US trade easing is strong, and attention should be paid to the policy adjustment of China's import of US soybeans in the future. According to Jin10 Data, the latest US soybean premium quotation is roughly the same as that of Brazil. A significant reduction in the tariff on US soybeans is needed to resume Sino-US soybean trade. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips after the Sino-US trade eases [36] - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures corrected at night. The new corn in the Northeast continues to be supplied, and the price is stable with a slight

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil is in a volatile pattern due to the co - existence of supply pressure and geopolitical risks. OPEC+ decided to continue increasing production in December 2025 but pause in Q1 2026. The high inventory and surplus supply are bearish factors, while strong refined - product crack spreads, geopolitical attacks on refineries are bullish factors [1]. - Liquid chemical products faced a significant decline on Monday. Ethylene glycol has a supply - surplus expectation, and the styrene - pure benzene market may continue to decline without major supply cuts or demand surges [2]. - Overall, crude oil will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the chemical supply side still faces significant pressure [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. Overseas crack spreads are strong, but domestic refinery profits are under pressure. OPEC+ is more cautious about increasing production, and oil prices may move from the bottom - seeking to the bottom - grinding stage. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. Asphalt - **View**: With the weakening of crude oil and rebar, asphalt futures prices lack support. The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [8]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: As crude oil weakens, fuel oil futures prices are on the weak side. Although the supply in the Asia - Pacific region may decline in November, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [8]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It fluctuates with crude oil. It is supported by the rebound of gasoline and diesel crack spreads but faces negative factors such as weak shipping demand. It is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations with a relatively low valuation [9][10]. Methanol - **View**: Suppressed by the high - inventory reality in the near term, methanol fluctuates downward. Although the port inventory has decreased slightly, the high inventory still has a suppressing effect, but there is still value in going long at low levels considering potential Iranian disturbances [24]. Urea - **View**: There is a co - existence of high - inventory suppression and cost support, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The high inventory restricts the upward space of futures prices, while coal costs provide support [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The expectation of supply surplus suppresses the market, and there is no fundamental positive support. With the return of integrated refineries and concentrated imports, the price is expected to decline in the medium - and long - term under the expectation of inventory accumulation [15][16][17]. PX - **View**: Although some plants are under reform and maintenance, PX supply is not affected. With strong supply and demand, the profit supports the price. It is expected to return to the cost - and - fundamental pricing logic in the short term and maintain range - bound trading [11]. PTA - **View**: The supply - demand drive is limited, the market negotiation fades, and the basis weakens slightly. The price is affected by cost and macro - sentiment fluctuations, and there is a weakening expectation in the medium term [11]. Short - Fiber - **View**: There is an expectation of weakening supply and demand, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream cost support is weak, and the downstream demand fails to keep up, so the price is expected to fluctuate with the upstream [19][20]. Bottle Chip - **View**: The cost provides no obvious guidance, the volatility narrows, and the trading atmosphere fades. The price follows the cost fluctuations, and the processing fee has stronger support during the factory production - reduction period [21]. Propylene - **View**: The propane CP price is reduced again, and PL is weaker than PP in the short term [29]. PP - **View**: With the decline in maintenance and high inventory pressure, it is expected to trade within a range. The decrease in maintenance leads to an increase in production, and the high - level inventory in the middle reaches suppresses the price [28]. Plastic - **View**: With the short - term decline in maintenance, it is expected to trade within a range. The supply pressure and weak fundamental support limit the price upside, and the profit support is also limited [27]. Styrene - **View**: There is still a concern about inventory swelling, and it fluctuates weakly. Although there are some disturbances in the cost - side pure benzene supply, it cannot reverse the situation, and the subsequent trend depends on crude oil [13]. PVC - **View**: The market sentiment cools down, and it fluctuates weakly. After the end of maintenance in early November, the production will increase, while the downstream demand is weak, and the export is also under pressure [30]. Caustic Soda - **View**: The supply - demand is under pressure, and the cost rises. The inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is weak. Attention should be paid to whether low profits can drive upstream production cuts [30]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring Energy Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. have different changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different contract periods of each variety [32]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse - receipt data of different varieties are presented, showing the relationship between spot and futures prices and the quantity of goods in storage [33]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are provided, which can be used to analyze the relative price relationships between different chemical products [34]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report mentions the basis and spread monitoring of multiple chemical varieties including methanol, urea, etc., but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content. 5. Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2250.33 (+0.10%), the commodity 20 index is 2546.82 (+0.02%), and the industrial product index is 2237.50 (+0.09%) [273]. - **Energy Index**: On November 3, 2025, the energy index was 1178.10, with a daily increase of 1.69%, a 5 - day increase of 0.79%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.81%, and a year - to - date decrease of 4.06% [275].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The oil market is in a state of rapid inventory accumulation, with short - term oil prices expected to fluctuate. The precious metals market is waiting for new drivers and is advised to remain on the sidelines. Copper prices have a callback risk after hitting highs. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term. Other commodities also have their own price trends and influencing factors, and the stock and bond markets are also in a state of shock [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The oil market has been rapidly accumulating inventory since September, with a 2.8% inventory increase in the fourth quarter. OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year, but the market supply - demand surplus may still expand. Short - term oil prices will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after geopolitical risks are priced in [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a supply pattern that is becoming more relaxed, and the previous high valuation faces a correction. The low - sulfur fuel market has short - term support, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels is expected to widen further [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The LPG contract continues to fluctuate narrowly. The weekly commodity volume slightly decreases while the arrival volume increases significantly. The demand is expected to improve, and the fundamental improvement still supports the price [24] - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the content Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals continue to fluctuate. The US ISM manufacturing PMI is slightly lower than expected, and the Fed officials have internal differences on interest rate cuts. The market is waiting for new drivers, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines for now [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The London copper price fell at the end of the session. The US manufacturing PMI has been shrinking, and high domestic copper prices suppress demand. There is a risk of a short - term correction after the price hits a high, and attention should be paid to the support of the MA20 moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fluctuates. The social inventory of aluminum ingots has increased, and the apparent consumption is basically flat year - on - year. The short - term trend is slightly stronger, but the upward space is limited [5] - **Zinc**: The zinc ingot export window is open. The LME zinc inventory has slightly increased, and the domestic social inventory has decreased. The short - term rebound momentum of Shanghai zinc is strong, and short - term long positions can be considered [8] - **Lead**: The SMM lead social inventory has slightly increased. The fundamentals are mixed, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel price is weakly operating. The downstream demand is weak, and the price support from the upstream is weakening [10] - **Tin**: The tin price fluctuates softly. The market lacks clear guidance and follows the copper price trend. It is advisable to consider short - selling on rallies or wait for a clear breakthrough [11] - **Alumina**: The alumina production capacity is at a historical high, the inventory is rising, and the supply surplus pattern is difficult to change. The price is mainly weak, and the rebound space is limited [7] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of Baotai ADC12 has increased. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and it is difficult for the cast aluminum alloy to have an independent market and continues to follow the aluminum price [6] - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures price fluctuates weakly. The global shipment has decreased, and the domestic arrival volume has reached a new high. The iron water production has decreased, and the steel mill profitability is at a new low. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly at a high level [16] - **Coke**: The coke price fluctuates downward. There is an expectation of a third price increase. The coking profit is average, and the inventory is almost unchanged. The price is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [17] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price fluctuates downward. The production of coking coal mines has slightly increased, and the inventory has slightly increased. The price is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [18] - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese price fluctuates. The demand is good, the production has slightly decreased, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The price is likely to fluctuate narrowly [19] - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron price fluctuates. The demand is acceptable, the supply is at a high level, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is likely to fluctuate narrowly [20] Chemical Commodities - **Methanol**: The methanol price has fallen significantly. The import supply is expected to be sufficient, the port inventory may continue to accumulate, and the downstream demand is weak. It is necessary to wait for the supply to shrink and the demand to improve [26] - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene price has fallen. The port inventory has increased significantly, the plant load has slightly increased, and there are medium - term negatives. It is advisable to focus on the port inventory accumulation rhythm and conduct reverse spread trading [27] - **Styrene**: The styrene price is under pressure. The cost support is insufficient, the supply has slightly decreased, the demand is stable, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to resolve [28] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The propylene market is dragged down by demand, but the PDH device maintenance provides a buying opportunity. The polyethylene supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The polypropylene supply pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is difficult to release continuously [29] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC price is running at a low level. The cost support is weakening, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand is stable. The caustic soda price is running at a low level, the supply pressure is high, and the demand is average [30] - **PX & PTA**: The PX and PTA prices are moving downward. The supply of both has increased, the polyester load is stable, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. It is advisable to continue the reverse spread strategy and pay attention to oil price fluctuations [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price has fallen. The production has slightly decreased, the port arrival is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is increasing. It is advisable to conduct reverse spread trading and pay attention to the possibility of plant shutdowns [32] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal futures price fluctuates strongly. The US soybean sales are expected to improve, and the domestic soybean arrival is sufficient. It is necessary to pay attention to China's policy adjustment on US soybean imports and look for buying opportunities on dips [36] - **Edible Oils**: The prices of edible oils are correcting downward. The cost of imported soybeans in China has increased, the domestic soybean crushing profit is still in a loss state, and the palm oil supply is increasing while the demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply from the origin and the performance of the soybean market [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed meal futures price has risen, and the rapeseed oil price is expected to be relatively weak. The rapeseed meal market is more affected by Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian trade relations [38] - **Corn**: The corn futures price has corrected. The new corn supply in the Northeast is stable, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to operate weakly at the bottom [40] - **Hog**: The hog spot price has fallen, and the futures price has hit a new low. The supply pressure in the later period is large, and the pig price is expected to have a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [41] - **Egg**: The egg futures price is strong. The vegetable price provides support, the in - production inventory is high, and the far - month contract has a high premium. It is advisable to wait for short - selling opportunities in the fourth quarter [42] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has risen slightly, and the domestic cotton price fluctuates. The cotton acquisition in the north is basically over, and the demand from downstream spinning mills is general. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiations [43] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price fluctuates. The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new sugar - making season's output forecast. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather and sugarcane growth [44] - **Apple**: The apple futures price is strong. The high - quality apples are priced high, and the low - quality apples have inventory pressure. It is advisable to wait and see [45] - **Wood**: The wood price is operating weakly. The supply is under pressure, the demand supports the price, and the inventory is low. It is advisable to wait and see [46] - **Pulp**: The pulp futures price has risen significantly. The port inventory is high, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is general. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [47] Others - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has a shrinking - volume rebound, and the futures index is mixed. The geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the market is expected to fluctuate with a slightly positive attitude. It is advisable to focus on the technology - growth sector [48] - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond futures price has closed flat. The bond market interest rate lacks downward momentum, and the yield curve steepening is expected to end [49]