Group 1: US Economic Indicators - In November 2025, the inflation-adjusted personal consumption expenditures in the US increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with the growth rate of goods consumption reaching its highest level since the second half of 2025[1] - The US industrial output in December showed unexpected growth, and the previously announced annualized GDP growth rate for Q3 was revised upward, marking the highest level in two years[1] - The US economy demonstrates strong endogenous momentum as of the end of 2025, supported by wages and savings despite persistent inflation[1] Group 2: European Economic Conditions - By December 2025, the year-on-year inflation rate in Europe fell below 2%, indicating a continued easing of pressure, primarily driven by labor costs and year-end consumption peaks in the service sector[2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) considers its current monetary policy stance appropriate but retains flexibility for adjustments[2] - Uncertainties regarding the Greenland issue between major European countries and the US have temporarily decreased, leading to a slight increase in global risk appetite[2] Group 3: Domestic Economic Outlook - In Q4 2025, China's actual GDP growth rate slowed due to a high base effect, but the annual economic growth target was still met, with a pattern of stronger supply than demand and stronger external demand than internal demand[2] - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see continued structural support from net exports, with new policy measures from the central bank likely to stabilize government-led investment projects[2] - The State Council emphasizes improving long-term mechanisms to promote consumption, with new stimulus policies including loan interest subsidies and special guarantee plans being introduced[2] Group 4: Market Risks - Geopolitical risks are rising, potentially disrupting market risk appetite due to uncertainties in the global economic and trade landscape[2] - Economic and policy changes exceeding expectations could lead to adjustments in related policies as the domestic economy undergoes a transformation[2]

最新comex黄金库存数据： 摘要1月22日，COMEX黄金库存录得1124.21吨，较上一交易日增加0.04吨；COMEX黄金周四（1月22 日）收4920.80美元/盎司，上涨2.09%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4932.20美元/盎司，最低触及 4772.70美元/盎司。 1月22日，COMEX黄金库存录得1124.21吨，较上一交易日增加0.04吨；COMEX黄金周四（1月22日） 收4920.80美元/盎司，上涨2.09%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4932.20美元/盎司，最低触及4772.70 美元/盎司。 【要闻回顾】 最新消息，欧美围绕格陵兰岛的博弈还在持续。考虑今年是美国中期选举年，委内瑞拉事件中，特朗普 攫取了足够利益，且国内民调支持率回升，对外积极性或增强，这也将加剧地缘风险。叠加金融属性与 货币属性强化的中长期利好，黄金多配格局明确。 日期 COMEX黄金库存量(吨) 增持（吨） 2026-01-22 1124.21 0.04 2026-01-21 1124.17 0.22 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing a phase of volatility, with prices shifting from a strong upward trend to a consolidation pattern amid increasing global financial market fluctuations and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent U.S. employment data has shown robust performance, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy stance in the short term [1]. - The anticipation of delayed interest rate cuts has led to a strengthening of real interest rates and the U.S. dollar, which has exerted downward pressure on gold prices [1]. - Geopolitical tensions that previously supported gold prices are easing, resulting in a reduction of risk premiums and a temporary decline in safe-haven demand for gold [1]. Group 2: Short-term and Mid-term Outlook - In the short term, gold prices are likely to continue fluctuating as the market focuses on signals from the Federal Reserve, inflation, employment data, and the impact of the U.S. dollar on gold prices [2]. - The mid-term trajectory of gold prices will depend on two key factors: whether monetary policy expectations shift back towards easing and whether geopolitical risks escalate again [2]. Group 3: Investment Platform Insights - Harmovest Capital, an investment platform with a global user base of 2 million, offers diversified solutions for investors participating in the gold market [4]. - The platform operates under multiple regulatory jurisdictions, ensuring the safety and transparency of user funds through oversight by authoritative bodies [4]. - Harmovest Capital provides comprehensive support for investors, including direct participation in gold trading, flexible leverage options, and advanced risk management tools [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - As of January 16, US crude, gasoline, and diesel inventories all exceeded expectations, leading to a significant cooling of market sentiment after a rebound due to cold wave speculation in the previous two trading days. Supply - overhang pressure restricts the enthusiasm of capital chasing up prices. With geopolitical risks slightly easing, it is difficult for oil prices to break through the upside space, but geopolitical risks have not completely disappeared [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents US Crude and Product Inventory Data - US commercial crude inventory increased by 3,602 thousand barrels (0.85%) to 426,049 thousand barrels as of January 16 compared to January 9 [1][2]. - Cushing crude inventory increased by 1,478 thousand barrels (6.27%) to 25,063 thousand barrels [2]. - US gasoline inventory increased by 5,977 thousand barrels (2.38%) to 256,990 thousand barrels [2]. - US distillate inventory increased by 3,348 thousand barrels (2.59%) to 132,592 thousand barrels [2]. - US total oil product inventory increased by 7,538 thousand barrels (0.58%) to 1,307,633 thousand barrels [2]. - US strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 806 thousand barrels (0.19%) to 414,484 thousand barrels [2]. US Refinery and Production - Related Data - US refinery utilization rate decreased by 2.0 percentage points (-2.10%) to 93.3% [2]. - US crude oil production decreased by 21 thousand barrels per day (-0.15%) to 13,732 thousand barrels per day [1][2]. - US crude oil imports decreased by 645 thousand barrels per day (-9.09%) to 6,447 thousand barrels per day [2]. - US crude oil exports decreased by 618 thousand barrels per day (-14.35%) to 3,688 thousand barrels per day [2].

Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading at approximately 1117.84, with a recent increase of 2.43%, reaching a high of 1117.98 and a low of 1084.80 [1][3] - The short-term outlook for gold futures appears bullish, supported by geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar [1][3] Group 2 - Trump's statement regarding Greenland indicates a strategic shift, asserting that the U.S. aims for "full permanent access" to the territory, with the only cost being the deployment of the "Iron Dome" missile defense system [2] - Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen emphasized that sovereignty issues are non-negotiable, while expressing willingness to cooperate in security matters [2] - Greenland's autonomy government welcomed Trump's comments but stressed that sovereignty is a "red line" and that negotiations should involve Denmark and the EU [2]

2026年1月23日，国际黄金市场再迎历史性突破，伦敦现货黄金盘中强势站上4900美元/盎司关口，最高 触及4967.37美元/盎司，年内涨幅已逼近15%。行情快速传导至国内消费端，老庙黄金、周生生等头部 品牌足金饰报价同步走高，老庙黄金克价升至1548元，单日涨幅超50元，国内金饰市场同步进入高价区 间，折射出黄金金融属性与消费属性的双重共振。 国际金价突破4900美元，是多重长期支撑与短期催化叠加的结果。长期来看，美元信用弱化与"去美元 化"进程加速为金价提供底层支撑，美国债务高企、特朗普干预美联储独立性引发市场对美元资产的担 忧，各国央行持续增持黄金对冲风险，中国央行已连续14个月增持黄金，2025年12月末储备量达7415万 盎司，全球央行月均购金量预计2026年维持在60吨。短期催化则来自地缘风险与避险情绪，美欧贸易争 端、中东局势紧张等因素推升市场恐慌情绪，资金加速涌入黄金避险，VIX指数一度飙升至20.09，创 下去年11月以来新高。 美联储政策预期进一步强化金价涨势。市场普遍预测2026年美联储将下调基金利率50个基点，实际利率 下行降低黄金持有机会成本，推动西方黄金ETF持仓回升，全球最大黄 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, although geopolitical risks have eased, market uncertainties remain high, and precious metal prices are expected to remain at high levels. Long - term, the logic for the rise of precious metals remains firm, and the strategy is to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. Gold is expected to be better than silver for allocation, and attention can be paid to the phased repair opportunities of the gold - silver ratio [3]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed is still in an easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainties will continue, dollar credit risks will increase, and the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. The medium - to - long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - On January 22, 2026, compared with January 21, 2026, London gold spot fell 0.4% to $4825.93 per ounce, London silver spot fell 0.2% to $94.07 per ounce, COMEX gold fell 0.4% to $4826.50 per ounce, COMEX silver fell 0.2% to $93.96 per ounce, AU2602 fell 0.5% to 1083.56 yuan per gram, AG2602 rose 0.8% to 23370 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) fell 0.4% to 1081.44 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) rose 0.7% to 23352 yuan per kilogram [3]. 3.2 Spread/Ratio - On January 22, 2026, compared with January 21, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active spread rose - 36.7% to - 2.12 yuan per gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread rose - 1900.0% (data may need verification), the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) rose 5.7% to - 4.96 yuan per gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) rose - 27.4% to - 511 yuan per kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio fell 1.3% to 46.37, the COMEX gold - silver ratio fell 0.2% to 51.37, AU2604 - 2602 rose 18.2% to 4.02 yuan per gram, and AG2604 - 2602 rose - 36.7% to - 31 yuan per kilogram [3]. 3.3 Position Data - As of January 21, 2026, compared with January 20, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR fell 0.37% to 1077.66 tons, the silver ETF - SLV fell 0.35% to 16166.09757 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions rose 7.92% to 296183 contracts, non - commercial short positions fell 3.97% to 44945 contracts, non - commercial net long positions rose 10.37% to 251238 contracts, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions fell 0.10% to 47337 contracts, non - commercial short positions fell 15.66% to 15277 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions rose 9.53% to 32060 contracts [3]. 3.4 Inventory Data - On January 22, 2026, compared with January 21, 2026, SHFE gold inventory rose 2.02% to 102009 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory fell 1.95% to 589052 kilograms. On January 21, 2026, compared with January 20, 2026, COMEX gold inventory rose 0.02% to 36142880 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory fell 0.98% to 422313658 troy ounces [3]. 3.5 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On January 22, 2026, the dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.00, with a 0.01% increase compared to January 21, 2026. On January 21, 2026, compared with January 20, 2026, the dollar index rose 0.23% to 98.77, the 2 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged at 3.60%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.93% to 4.26%, the VIX fell 15.88% to 16.90, the S&P 500 rose 1.16% to 6875.62, and NYMEX crude oil rose 1.93% to 60.67 [3]. 3.6 Market Review - On January 22, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.69% to 1087.58 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 1.22% to 2339 yuan per kilogram [3]. 3.7 Influencing Factors Analysis - Trump reached a cooperation framework with NATO on Greenland and withdrew tariff threats against 8 European countries, and stated no military action to seize the island, which eased market risk aversion and pressured precious metal prices. The US Q3 GDP growth was higher than expected and weekly jobless claims were stable, indicating US economic resilience and may suppress the rise of precious metals. However, the Greenland crisis is not fully resolved, there are concerns about European funds selling US Treasuries and reducing US stock investments, and Trump's threat of retaliation adds to market uncertainties. With tight spot supply and low inventory, the fundamentals support precious metals. [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The risk preference of LLDPE continues to spill over, and the basis weakens significantly. The futures price strengthens, the upstream inventory is transferred, the enterprise quotation stabilizes and rebounds, the mid - stream order placement improves, but the basis weakens. The downstream product profit is compressed, resisting high prices. The external quotation rises, and the long - term import profit is opened. The raw material end oil price strengthens, the ethylene monomer weakens, and the PE process profit is repaired. The supply side has new capacity trial - production and the maintenance plan decreases, and there is supply - demand pressure in the medium term[1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2605 is 6814, with a daily increase of 2.22%. The trading volume is 567,632, and the position changes by 11,162[1] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of the 05 contract is - 164 (previous day: - 146), and the 05 - 09 contract spread is - 31 (previous day: - 28)[1] - **Spot Price Data**: The spot price in North China is 6650 yuan/ton (previous day: 6520), in East China is 6700 yuan/ton (previous day: 6650), and in South China is 6750 yuan/ton (previous day: 6700)[1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures price strengthens, the upstream inventory is transferred, the enterprise quotation stabilizes and rebounds, and the mid - stream order placement improves again. The production of standard products continues to rise, the trading volume weakens significantly, and the basis weakens sharply. The downstream product profit is compressed and resists high prices. The external quotation rises, the LL supply is scarce, the long - term import profit is opened, and the importer's trading volume increases. The downstream factories are mostly cautious and wait - and - see. Geopolitical intensification may support the US dollar market to run strongly[1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The raw material end oil price strengthens, the Middle East geopolitical risk is not released, the ethylene monomer link weakens, and the PE ethylene and ethane process profits are repaired. The PE futures market continues to rebound, the trading volume is mostly concentrated in the mid - stream, and the downstream has not chased the rising price to replenish goods. The downstream agricultural film is weakening, the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand, but after the recent decline, the willingness of the mid - and downstream to hold goods weakens. The upstream offers discounts to sell goods at the end of the year, the factory inventory decreases slightly, and the basis is weak. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang is gradually in trial - production, the maintenance plan in January decreases month - on - month, some FD switches back to standard products, and the supply - demand pressure brought by high inventory capacity and weakening demand in the medium term still needs to be concerned[2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is - 1[3]

宝城期货原油早报-2026-01-23 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供应过剩主导，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普频繁释放地缘风险信号，格陵兰岛、加拿大或成为美国下一个夺取 和打击的目标。由于短期美军航母绕过马六甲海峡，赶赴中东战场，伊朗发表强硬言论，中东地缘 风险再度增强。由于市场担忧全球原油 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cold wave has pushed up natural gas prices, with US natural gas futures soaring to their highest level since 2022, and the HH natural gas price is expected to set a record for the largest weekly increase since 1990. The cold wave may disrupt natural gas production in southern US and increase demand, while its impact on shale oil production is expected to be limited [1]. - Crude oil prices remain stable, natural gas prices rise, and chemical product prices rebounded significantly on Thursday. The chemical industry chain is relatively dull, with the ethane - cracking ethylene plant and US propane prices being positively affected. The prices of PTA and styrene in the aromatic hydrocarbon sector are supported by market expectations of profit expansion in the chemical industry chain, but considering the large idle capacity of most chemical products, the probability of continuous profit expansion is low [1]. - Overall, the energy and chemical market is expected to fluctuate, with crude oil still facing geopolitical risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, with high inventories of crude oil and refined products in the US. The impact of the cold wave and supply disruptions in Kazakhstan are temporary, and future price support depends on geopolitical factors. The outlook is for a volatile market [7]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt futures has risen with the strength of crude oil. However, the supply of Venezuelan oil may increase in the long - term, which will be a major negative factor. Currently, asphalt is overvalued, and its medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline. The outlook is for a volatile market [7][8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There is an expectation of a significant increase in heavy oil supply, which will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. Although the geopolitical premium has returned, the high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the substitution of fuel oil by natural gas and photovoltaic energy are long - term negative factors. The outlook is for a volatile market [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The sharp increase in natural gas prices may support low - sulfur fuel oil. However, it faces challenges such as a decline in shipping demand, substitution by green energy, and high - sulfur fuel oil. Currently, its valuation is low, and it is expected to fluctuate with crude oil. The outlook is for a volatile market [10]. - **PX**: Driven by market sentiment, PX prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, but its own structural weakness restricts its upward space. PXN is expected to range between $300 - 350 per ton [11]. - **PTA**: Due to increased capital attention, PTA prices have risen significantly. Although the supply - demand pattern is expected to accumulate inventory, the processing fee has improved, and it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [11]. - **Pure Benzene**: Factors such as port destocking, downstream profit - locking, potential tariff cancellation, and the need for a price increase in the aromatic hydrocarbon sector have led to a slightly stronger and volatile trend in pure benzene prices [13][14]. - **Styrene**: Export disruptions, geopolitical factors, and the overall warm commodity atmosphere have led to a short - term strong and volatile trend in styrene prices. If there is no unexpected significant increase in supply or major negative news from crude oil, this trend will continue [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by capital and the cold wave, ethylene glycol prices have rebounded with reduced positions. Although there is seasonal inventory accumulation pressure, short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [15][17]. - **Short - Fiber**: Driven by cost and market sentiment, short - fiber prices have strengthened, and downstream replenishment has increased. The price is expected to follow the upstream trend with slightly pressured processing fees [19]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The resonance of cost and improved supply - demand has led to profit expansion. The price is expected to fluctuate with raw materials, and the support for the processing fee has increased [21]. - **Methanol**: The inland market is weak, and the coastal market has both long and short factors. Methanol is expected to fluctuate within a range [23]. - **Urea**: With good new order transactions at low prices, urea prices have stabilized and are expected to fluctuate. The market is currently in a stalemate [24]. - **LLDPE**: The cold wave in the US and the strong chemical market sentiment have driven the price rebound, but the upward space may be limited. The short - term outlook is for a volatile market [28]. - **PP**: Driven by the chemical market sentiment, PP prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of profit changes on maintenance plans [29]. - **PL**: Supply has tightened, and PL prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [30]. - **PVC**: Short - term "export rush" may support PVC prices, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is under pressure. The price is expected to be volatile [32]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, caustic soda prices are expected to be weak and volatile [33]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent (M1 - M2: 0.71, unchanged), Dubai (M1 - M2: 0.36, - 0.02), etc. [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities, for example, asphalt (basis: - 162, change: - 75, warehouse receipts: 45820 tons) [35]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are various inter - variety spread values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA (- 358, + 10), 1 - month TA - EG (1630, + 180), etc. [36]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report also provides basis and spread monitoring for various chemicals such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data summaries are not detailed here [37][49][61]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index all showed certain increases on January 22, 2026. For example, the commodity index increased by 0.69% to 2444.59, the energy index increased by 1.46% to 1124.89, etc. [276][277].