| CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY | 元/吨 | 2025/6/17 | | 9050.00 | 9050.00 | 0.00% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 下 | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY | 2025/6/17 | 元/吨 | 7350.00 | 7350.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D | | 2025/6/17 | 元/吨 | 7250.00 | 7250.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D 游 | | 2025/6/17 | 元/吨 | 7250.00 | 7250.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 | | 2025/6/17 | 元/吨 | 6645.00 | 6645.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 | | 2025/6/17 | 元/吨 | 5970.00 | 6020.00 | -0.83% | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 2025/6/17 元/吨 | | | | 6050.00 | 6 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance in trends and poor operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆, also suggesting a short - term balance in trends and poor operability [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆, indicating a short - term balance in trends and poor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] Report's Core View - Amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, different energy products are affected in various ways. Investors should pay attention to supply risks and price fluctuations, and choose appropriate investment strategies based on product fundamentals and geopolitical situations [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Before the US and Iran resume negotiations, the Israel - Iran conflict shows no clear sign of downgrading. Although OPEC's effective idle capacity and OPEC+'s production increase elasticity can make up for Iran's oil exports in about 6 months, investors should focus on the risk of attacks on Iran's oil production and export facilities and short - term supply reduction [2] - Based on the market pricing performance in 2011 when Iran threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, the extreme upside risk of the Brent crude oil near - month contract points to $80 - 90 per barrel. Investors are advised to hold out - of - the - money call options for hedging and adopt a medium - term short strategy after the geopolitical situation eases [2] - Due to the direct impact of Middle East geopolitical risks on the supply of medium - sulfur crude oil, the tanker freight from the Middle East to China is supported, and the spread between SC and Brent is expected to rise [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - After the pulse - like rise and subsequent decline of crude oil today, the upward trend of fuel - related futures has come to a halt [3] - The Israel - Iran conflict boosts the geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil, but the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil from ship bunkering and deep - processing is weak, and the demand boost from summer power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is limited due to high valuation. The FU crack spread is expected to be under pressure [3] - The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil remains abundant, the demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is insufficient, and the LU crack spread declines when crude oil strengthens due to geopolitical premium [3] Asphalt - Today, oil prices fell from high levels, and asphalt mainly fluctuated. Due to the gradual consumption of crude oil quotas, the increase in production of local refineries lacks resilience. After the peak maintenance period, major refineries plan to increase the operation of deep - processing units, and the increase in asphalt production is expected to be limited [4] - The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has increased month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year growth has turned positive. The sales volume of road rollers, a leading indicator of asphalt consumption, increased significantly year - on - year from January to April, indicating a substantial boost in terminal demand soon [4] - The latest factory and social inventories of asphalt have both declined. The fundamental support factors for asphalt still exist, but the BU crack spread is under pressure before the risk of rising oil prices caused by geopolitical risks is eliminated [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The Middle East geopolitical conflict is still intensifying, increasing the risk of Iran's LPG production and exports. The international market prices in the risk and remains strong [5] - Currently, China's chemical demand for LPG is still recovering, and attention should be paid to the pressure of declining margins after the increase in import costs. The mid - month arrival volume and refinery gas release are both increasing. If the geopolitical risk eases, the supply pressure will bring strong downward pressure [5] - The fundamental supply - side pressure remains, but the market has been oscillating strongly recently to price in the risk [5]

| Millio | >国技期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月17日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜黄金回落,自银波动有限。伊以军事对抗延续,媒体报道伊朗希望与以色列绘和敌对关系，美国方面提 出与伊朗会晤的提议,但并未有明确的停战信号释放,特朗普呼吁所有人撤离德黑兰,后续发展尚持观察。 短期黄金震荡偏强波动率抬升,不过在今年4月5月双顶位置存在阻力,本周市场面临美联储议息会议和地缘 风险的双击,观望为主谨慎参与。今晚关注美国零售销售数据。 ★关税-①特朗普宣布英美签署贸易协议,卢特尼克将决定钢铝关税的豁免配额。2报道称欧盟准备有条件 地接受美国10%的统一关税,欧盟方面称该说法是猜测性的。③印度和美国计划在7月9日前签署临时协议。 (4日美首脑G7峰 ...

看期货热点,到 3 金十期货 Eleffa 2025 06-17 15:54 6 期市动态雷达 今日主力合约涨跌分布 今日主力合约市场中50个合约上涨,26个合 约下跌。市场呈现明显的多头情绪,更多资金 和交易活动集中在上涨品种上。 主力合约涨跌排行 (%) 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% -3.00% 涨幅居前的品种： 尿素2509(+3.99%)、20号胶2507(+1.55%)、乙二醇 2509(+1.55%)。这些品种受供需影响显着。 数据透视线索 26 跌幅居前的品种： 原油2507(-2.05%)、苯乙烯2507(-1.7%)、沪金 2508(-1.46%)，可能受空头力量增强或基本面利空影响。 资金流向(亿元) 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 资金流入最多的品种： 菜油2509(7.33亿元)、十年国债2509(5.0亿 元)、豆粕2509(3.7亿元)，这些品种吸引了大量主力资金关注。 资金流出最多的品种:中证1000 2506(-35.23亿元)、沪深300 2506(-33.3亿元)、中证500 2506(-25.22亿元) ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran have led to significant reactions in the global oil tanker industry, with operators avoiding Middle Eastern routes and halting new bookings, creating a new wave of volatility in the energy market [1][3]. - The oil tanker industry is facing structural risks, including a surge in crude oil transportation costs, with VLCC rates from the Middle East to Asia increasing by over 20% to Worldscale 55 [3]. - The cost of clean product tankers has risen, with transportation quotes for refined oil from the Oman Gulf increasing from $3.3 million to $4.5 million, reflecting heightened war risk premiums and operational risks [3]. - Insurance costs have escalated, with tankers passing through Gulf waters facing additional war risk premiums of $3 to $8 per barrel, significantly raising overall transportation costs [3]. - Major shipping companies, such as Frontline, have suspended all new bookings in the Middle East, indicating that trade will become less efficient and safety will come at a cost [3]. Group 2 - The current market is responding not only to political statements but also to the actual actions of transporters, insurers, and port announcements, with shipping companies reacting faster to risks than governments [4]. - The "asymmetric threats" such as electronic interference and GPS deception are posing greater challenges to maritime operations, prompting insurers and port managers to reassess safety levels [4]. - The energy demand in India is increasing, leading to close monitoring of shipping dynamics and fuel price fluctuations, indicating that changes in Middle Eastern shipping will directly impact the Asian economic region [4]. - The global energy market is entering a structurally volatile period dominated by "transportation risks," where even the absence of direct attacks can lead to significant market reactions if shipping is disrupted [4][5].

地缘风险仍存，燃料油市场受到支撑 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨3.38%，报3276元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨1.28%，报3874 元/吨。 随着伊以冲突升级，原油价格走势偏强，对FU、LU单边价格形成提振，但目前局势仍不明朗，市场或面临反复波 动。 燃料油日报 | 2025-06-17 就燃料油自身基本面而言，目前整体矛盾有限，市场存在一定支撑，但也没有出现短缺的情况。随着夏季临近， 中东、埃及等地发电端需求逐步提升，市场短期存在支撑。其中，埃及燃料油进口延续增长态势。参考船期数据， 埃及6月份高硫燃料油进口量目前预计在65万吨，环比增加9万吨。参考去年季节性，发电终端需求还有提升空间。 此外，由于以色列天然气出口到埃及，如果其天然气田生产受损，则可能导致埃及的天然气供应进一步收紧，进 而采购更多的高硫燃料油来填补天然气的缺口。目前战事还未造成实质性的供应中断，但如果有伊朗炼厂和港口 在冲突中受到严重损坏，则其燃料油供应有从源头减少的可能，我国炼厂的原料来源或边际收紧，亚洲高硫燃料 油市场面临潜在上行风险。 低硫燃料油方面，短期供应压力有限，国内保税港口库存偏低，市场结构持 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by the tight supply of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel, and the closure of the arbitrage window from the West to Singapore will limit cargo arrivals in the first half of July. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by the seasonal demand peak of utilities in the Middle East during summer. However, sufficient supplier inventories and weak downstream bunker demand may suppress the market fundamentals in the short term. The fuel oil is expected to run strongly. FU2509 will run strongly in the range of 3250 - 3350, and LU2508 will run strongly in the range of 3800 - 3900 [3] - The market is driven by the resonance of supply - side production cuts to be observed and neutral demand. There are potential risks such as the breakdown of OPEC+ internal unity and the escalation of war risks [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil has a price of 474.18 dollars/ton with a basis of 219 yuan/ton; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil has a price of 543.5 dollars/ton with a basis of 120 yuan/ton, showing a spot premium over futures. The price is above the 20 - day line which is upward - sloping. High - sulfur主力 holds more long positions with a decrease in long positions, while low - sulfur主力 holds short positions with a decrease in short positions [3] - The overnight Middle East geopolitical risk first decreased and then increased. The possible US intervention in the Israel - Iran conflict raises market risk concerns [3] 3.2 Long - Short Focus - **Likely to be Bullish**: OPEC+ extends additional production cuts (implementation to be tracked), and China releases import quotas [4] - **Likely to be Bearish**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxation of sanctions on Russia [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The previous price of the FU主力 contract was 3169, and the current price is 3246, with a rise of 77 (2.43%); the previous price of the LU主力 contract was 3825, and the current price is 3854, with a rise of 29 (0.76%). The previous FU basis was 80, and the current one is 219, with a rise of 139 (173.50%); the previous LU basis was - 16, and the current one is 120, with a rise of 136 (- 827.08%) [5] - **Spot Market**: The prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils remained unchanged. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil rose from 445.99 to 474.18 dollars/ton (6.32%), the price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil rose from 519.50 to 543.50 dollars/ton (4.62%), the price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil rose from 426.41 to 454.08 dollars/ton (6.49%), and the price of Singapore diesel rose from 613.79 to 640.83 dollars/ton (4.41%) [6] 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on the week of June 11 was 23.119 million barrels, an increase of 1.71 million barrels [3][8] 3.5 Spread Data - The report shows the historical data of the spread between high - and low - sulfur futures from 2021 - 09 - 07 to 2025 - 06 - 07 [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The US economic fundamentals still have the momentum to recover, and the Fed is expected to "hold steady" in June. Although the economic fundamentals are still recovering, they are disturbed by geopolitical risks and uncertainties in economic and trade prospects. The rebound of May's CPI data falling short of expectations supports the Fed's rate cut, but the soaring oil prices may prompt the Fed to send hawkish signals next week [6]. - Domestic macro: The national economy is operating steadily with progress. Fixed - asset investment continues to expand, manufacturing investment grows rapidly, service industry growth accelerates, and the year - on - year decline in commodity housing sales prices in all tiers of cities continued to narrow in May [6]. - Asset views: Domestically, there are mainly structural opportunities for assets, and the policy - driven logic is strengthened. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while in the long run, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals are on the path of recovery from the contraction in Q1. However, the recovery is limited by geopolitical and economic - trade uncertainties. The Fed is likely to maintain the current interest rate in June due to the balance between upper - limit constraints and lower - limit support [6]. - Domestic: In May, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. The service production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 6.4% year - on - year [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts are expected, and short - term fiscal policies will be implemented as planned [8]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure is flattening, economic growth expectations are improving, and stagflation trading is cooling down [8]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Geopolitical impacts are fading, waiting for policies from the Lujiazui Forum. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Stock index options: Volatility has quickly bottomed out, mainly buying options. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Treasury bond futures: The yield curve is steepening. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: If the progress of China - US negotiations exceeds expectations, precious metals will continue to adjust in the short term. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: Macro sentiment is recovering, and prices are fluctuating at a low level. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Iron ore: Shipments and arrivals have decreased, and port inventories have slightly decreased. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Coke: Demand support is weak, and cost - driven increases are difficult to sustain. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Coking coal: Market sentiment has improved, but supply remains loose. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Ferrosilicon: Cost expectations have improved, and the price has risen from a low level. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Silicomanganese: Manganese ore supply is disrupted again, and the price has risen from a low level. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Glass: Demand is declining in the off - season, and spot prices are being adjusted downwards. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Soda ash: Supply is at a high level, and upstream inventories are accumulating. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The US dollar index is weak, and copper prices are at a high level. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Alumina: Spot prices are falling, and the futures price is under pressure. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Aluminum: There is still a risk of a short - squeeze in the short term, and aluminum prices are fluctuating at a high level. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Zinc: Inventories are slightly accumulating, and zinc prices are weakly fluctuating. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [8]. - Lead: Cost support is stable, and lead prices are fluctuating. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Nickel: LME nickel inventories have increased significantly, and nickel prices are weak in the short term. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [8]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel prices continue to decline, and the futures price is weak. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Tin: There is no obvious driving force, and tin prices are fluctuating. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Industrial silicon: Supply is continuously increasing, and silicon prices are under pressure. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [8]. - Lithium carbonate: Supply and demand lack driving forces, and prices continue to fluctuate. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [8]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks are intensifying, and oil price fluctuations are increasing. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - LPG: Cost support is increasing, and LPG prices are rebounding following crude oil. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Asphalt: Crude oil prices have risen and then fallen, and asphalt futures prices are fluctuating. Short - term outlook is downward [11]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil prices have risen and then fallen. Short - term outlook is downward [11]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are following crude oil. Short - term outlook is downward [11]. - Methanol: Affected by the Iran - Israel situation, methanol prices have risen significantly. Short - term outlook is an upward - trending volatility [11]. - Urea: Affected by geopolitical factors and the start of domestic and foreign demand, the futures price is strong. Short - term outlook is an upward - trending volatility [11]. - Ethylene glycol: Port inventories are decreasing, and Iranian plants are shut down. Short - term outlook is an upward - trending volatility [11]. - PX: Supply - demand support is weakening, and short - term price depends on crude oil. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - PTA: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and it follows crude oil in the short term. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Short - fiber: Production is maintained, and weekly inventories are decreasing. Short - term outlook is an upward - trending volatility [11]. - Bottle chips: Multiple plants are under maintenance, and processing fees have bottomed out. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - PP: Oil prices have risen significantly, and the Middle East situation is uncertain. Short - term outlook is to wait and see [11]. - Plastic: It follows oil prices in the short term. Short - term outlook is to wait and see [11]. - Styrene: Crude oil prices have fallen, and styrene prices are weakly consolidating. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [11]. - PVC: Dynamic costs are rising, and PVC prices are fluctuating. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Caustic soda: It has low valuation and weak supply - demand. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Oils and fats: Macro and EPA proposals are beneficial to oils and fats. Short - term outlook is an upward - trending volatility [11]. - Protein meal: Hedging pressure has arrived as expected, and the futures price is facing adjustment. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Corn/Starch: The increase in spot prices has slowed down, and the futures price is weak. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Pig: It is the off - season for demand, and pig prices are restricted. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [11]. - Rubber: Market sentiment provides support, and the futures price is strongly fluctuating. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Synthetic rubber: The impact of geopolitical conflicts on sentiment still exists. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Pulp: The financial market atmosphere is soft, and pulp prices are rebounding. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [11]. - Cotton: The driving force is weak, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Sugar: Attention should be paid to the lower - level support. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Logs: As the delivery approaches, the game intensifies. Short - term outlook is volatile [11].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the Hong Kong stock market (港股) and the consumption sector, particularly focusing on the AH premium index and its implications for investment strategies in the context of macroeconomic factors and regulatory changes. Core Insights and Arguments 1. As of June 12, 2025, the Hang Seng AH Premium Index stands at 128.05, below the central level of 140.68 established since 2021, indicating a significant correction in the premium of A-shares over H-shares, which has dropped to 27%, a five-year low, suggesting that Hong Kong stocks are not overvalued despite the recovery [1][2][4] 2. Southbound capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks has exceeded 660 billion yuan this year, nearing last year's total, reflecting market recognition of valuation recovery in Hong Kong stocks, while some A-shares are trading at a discount compared to H-shares, indicating structural investment opportunities [1][4] 3. The market focus has shifted from AI technology to new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, with quality stocks listing in Hong Kong, and easing internet antitrust regulations further alleviating valuation pressures, suggesting the AH premium index may return to its second-phase position [1][2][4] 4. Investment in the consumption sector should prioritize leading stocks in new consumption areas, such as Pop Mart and Mixue Ice City, as well as companies benefiting from the easing of internet platform antitrust regulations and innovative pharmaceutical firms with technological advantages [1][5] 5. The consumption sector has shown significant excess returns, particularly in personal care products, animal feed, leisure foods, and cosmetics, indicating structural opportunities in the market [3][6][7] Additional Important Insights 1. The AH premium has been categorized into three distinct phases since 2010, with the current phase indicating a significant deviation from historical norms, suggesting potential for rebalancing between A-shares and H-shares [2][4][13] 2. The current investment strategy should focus on sectors with strong growth potential, particularly in new consumption trends and innovative pharmaceuticals, while being cautious of geopolitical risks that may affect exposure to the U.S. market [14][15] 3. Identifying sustainable improvement in industries can be achieved through analyzing financial reports, focusing on sectors that have transitioned from negative to positive growth, which can signal potential investment opportunities [11][12] Recommendations for Future Investments 1. Focus on domestic consumption sectors, including apparel, automobiles, personal care products, and food and beverage industries, which are expected to benefit from domestic demand [15] 2. Emphasize technology sectors that are self-sufficient and domestically controlled, particularly in AI, semiconductors, and military applications [15] 3. Monitor cost improvement-driven sectors, such as agriculture and energy, and explore structural opportunities in exports, especially in light of improving trade relations with Europe [15]

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