Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 300 billion MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a maturity of one year, as part of its strategy to ensure ample liquidity [1] - In June, the PBOC conducted significant reverse repo operations totaling 1.4 trillion yuan, indicating a proactive approach to manage liquidity ahead of maturing financial instruments [1][2] - The liquidity supply-demand imbalance is heightened during mid-year, with a notable increase in maturing certificates of deposit and government bond issuance pressures [2][4] Group 2 - The adjustment of MLF operations to a multi-price bidding system marks a shift in its role from a policy rate tool to a liquidity management tool, allowing for more market-driven pricing [3] - The decline in interbank deposit rates suggests potential for further decreases in MLF rates, influenced by the new bidding mechanism [3] - The PBOC is expected to continue utilizing various liquidity management tools, including reverse repos and MLF, to address liquidity needs and stabilize market expectations [5] Group 3 - The upcoming fiscal pressures in July, including tax payments and government bond issuance, are anticipated to create significant liquidity gaps, necessitating PBOC intervention [4][5] - The Ministry of Finance plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies to support economic stability and growth, with potential additional funding of 500 billion to 1 trillion yuan expected [6][7] - The focus on fiscal policy is expected to complement monetary policy efforts, with an emphasis on supporting consumption and effective investment [6][7]

Market Performance - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise over 1%, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.04%, reaching a new high for the year, and the ChiNext Index rising 3.11% [1] - The total market turnover was 1.64 trillion yuan, an increase of 191.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Reasons for the Rise - Market hotspots were concentrated in finance, military industry, and computer sectors, with more stocks rising than falling. The strong performance of the ChiNext 50 Index was attributed to geopolitical factors, policy support, liquidity recovery, and industry events [5] - Geopolitical developments, particularly the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, reduced market risk aversion and led to a capital influx into high-risk assets, benefiting the technology sector and the ChiNext [6] - The Federal Reserve's recent statements indicated a potential for monetary easing, which may boost market risk appetite and attract foreign capital into emerging markets, particularly benefiting growth sectors like the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board [7] Policy and Market Support - Recent guidance from the central bank and six departments emphasized financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, aiming to stabilize economic fundamentals and enhance the flow of medium- to long-term capital into the market [8] - The implementation of monetary policy tools to maintain liquidity and reduce financing costs is expected to promote stable development in the capital market [8] Industry Performance - The brokerage and fintech sectors showed significant performance, with news about stablecoins and regulatory approvals potentially driving valuations higher for leading brokerages [9] - Companies like CATL are benefiting from the accelerated industrialization of solid-state batteries, which are expected to become mainstream in the high-end market by 2030, presenting valuation opportunities for related firms [9] Market Outlook - Short-term focus should be on event catalysts and mid-year earnings reports, with potential for continued strength in the ChiNext if earnings exceed expectations and geopolitical stability is maintained [9] - From a mid- to long-term perspective, sectors like AI, new energy, and pharmaceuticals show clear growth logic, with the ChiNext 50 Index currently trading at a PE-TTM of approximately 31 times, below its historical average, indicating potential for valuation recovery [10]

Group 1: US Economy - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell believes that oil price shocks will not have a lasting impact on inflation, consistent with the quantitative analysis conducted by the US economic team in September 2023 [1] - The research indicates that a 10% increase in oil prices typically results in a modest 5 basis point increase in core prices within three months [1] - The model shows that headline prices react more significantly, increasing by 5 basis points in the same period, primarily due to the energy component of the CPI [1] Group 2: China Liquidity and MSCI China - In May, China's liquidity showed some improvement but remained negative due to strong growth in M1 (narrow money supply), intensified PPI deflation, and stable industrial value-added growth [4] - Morgan Stanley expects deflationary pressures to persist throughout 2025, with a passive policy stance leading to continued negative liquidity [4] Group 3: Chinese Beauty Market during 618 Sales - The total GMV of beauty products across four major e-commerce platforms grew by over 10% year-on-year, attributed to a 10-day extension of the promotional period and simplified sales strategies [6] - Douyin's beauty category growth outpaced Tmall's by approximately 10%, although the growth advantage for Douyin appears to be narrowing [6] - Tmall's competitive landscape remained stable, with the top six brands consistent with the previous year, while domestic brands showed more volatility in rankings [6] Group 4: E-commerce Platforms and Competition - Morgan Stanley expresses confidence in Meituan's competitive barriers in the instant retail sector, with Alibaba's e-commerce and local life services synergy expected to drive business expansion [15] - Meituan's restructuring of its 优选 (preferred) business is seen as a positive move, allowing for more investment in instant retail and international expansion [19] - Meituan is projected to achieve a GTV of 350 billion RMB in instant retail by 2025, reflecting a 30% year-on-year growth [19] Group 5: Alibaba's Strategic Moves - Alibaba announced the integration of Ele.me and Fliggy into its e-commerce group, maintaining their operational structures while enhancing business efficiency through strong synergies [21] - This move is seen as a response to JD's recent expansions into instant retail and online travel, highlighting the competitive landscape in the e-commerce sector [21]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 300 billion MLF operation on June 25, with a one-year term, marking the fourth consecutive month of increased MLF operations since March 2025 [1] - In June, 1.82 trillion MLF matured, resulting in a net injection of 1.18 trillion through MLF for the month [1] - The PBOC also announced a 1 trillion three-month reverse repo operation and a subsequent 400 billion six-month reverse repo operation, achieving a net injection of 200 billion through reverse repos in June [3] Group 2 - The PBOC's liquidity management has been proactive, with a total net liquidity injection of 3.18 trillion in June, including a 1 trillion reserve requirement cut released in May [3] - The chief economist of China Minsheng Bank noted that liquidity supply and demand issues are more pronounced mid-year, prompting the PBOC to maintain strong liquidity support [3][4] - As the end of the quarter approaches, the PBOC's MLF operations are aimed at stabilizing market expectations and alleviating long-term funding pressures in the banking system [3][4] Group 3 - Recent liquidity concerns have eased significantly, with overnight repo rates and one-year deposit rates declining, indicating a more stable funding environment [4] - The chief economist anticipates increased liquidity pressure in July due to tax payments and government bond issuances, estimating a liquidity gap of around 1 trillion [4] - The PBOC is expected to continue using various liquidity management tools, including reverse repos and MLF, to meet liquidity demands and signal stability [4][5] Group 4 - Looking ahead, monetary policy is expected to focus on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth, with MLF likely to continue its increased operations [5] - The coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is emphasized, with MLF and reverse repos playing a crucial role in maintaining stable liquidity levels [5] - This approach aims to enhance banks' lending capabilities and support the real economy, mitigating external economic fluctuations [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - This year, global funds have generally flowed out of US dollar assets and returned to their home markets. The spill - over of US dollar liquidity has led non - US markets to generally outperform US assets. However, with the easing of geopolitical tensions and the resurgence of the "US Exceptionalism," there are new changes in global capital flows. After the cooling of the Middle East situation, funds temporarily flow back to risk assets. The prospect of a soft landing in the fundamentals and the resurgence of the AI narrative may continue to support the performance of the US stock market. If the Hong Kong Monetary Authority recovers Hong Kong dollar liquidity, it may put short - term pressure on the Hong Kong stock market. In the short term, the cooling of geopolitical conflicts and the dovish stance of the Fed have led to the repair of global risk appetite and the rise of easing expectations. Equity assets may be favorable in the short term, while crude oil and gold may face some correction pressure [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Capital Flow and Asset Performance - Global funds have flowed out of US dollar assets this year. According to TIC data, in April, overseas investors reduced their holdings of medium - and long - term securities by $88.9 billion, including $59.2 billion in US stocks and $46 billion in US Treasury bonds. Canada and the Chinese mainland had relatively large reduction scales [8]. - European stocks are the most benefited assets under the weak US dollar due to friendly policies, low - level fundamental repair, and frequent capital rotation between the US and Europe. European investors have continuously reduced their holdings of US stocks and returned to their home markets this year. The recent 3 - month rolling net capital inflow into European stocks has reached a high since 2010 [12]. - Multiple funds support the liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market, including foreign capital inflows, southbound funds, and the liquidity injection by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. The recent rise of the Hong Kong stock market is more of a valuation repair due to abundant liquidity. However, if the Hong Kong Monetary Authority recovers Hong Kong dollar liquidity, it may put short - term pressure on the Hong Kong stock market, but the long - term impact is limited [14][29]. - A - share market has abundant off - market liquidity and low opportunity cost, with active on - market funds. Since April, the trading sentiment has weakened, and the market is mainly in a state of stock game. Recently, large - finance (high - dividend), small - cap stocks have led the rise, and themes are active [21][31]. Short - term Changes in Global Liquidity - The cooling of the Middle East situation has improved market risk appetite, and funds have temporarily flowed back to risk assets. Risk - aversion assets are under pressure, and the focus will shift to fundamental data and the Fed's monetary policy stance [23]. - The "US Exceptionalism" has recovered. The prospect of a soft landing in the fundamentals and the resurgence of the AI narrative may support the US stock market. "De - dollarization" may be postponed. In the short term, the net inflow of funds into US stocks has stabilized and rebounded, and the inflow of funds into US Treasury bonds is generally stable [23]. - The Hong Kong dollar has touched the weak - side guarantee. If the Hong Kong Monetary Authority recovers Hong Kong dollar liquidity, it may put short - term pressure on the Hong Kong stock market. The subsequent depreciation pressure of the Hong Kong dollar may come from the appreciation of the US dollar and capital outflows from the Hong Kong stock market [29]. Market Condition Assessment - Domestic: Port throughput has slightly converged, the supply and demand in the construction industry are weak, and housing prices need to stabilize. Externally, the US consumption and real estate sectors face downward pressure, the impact of tariffs is gradually emerging, economic growth is slowing down, and the Fed has raised its inflation forecast [38][39]. - Overseas: US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month (previous value - 0.1%), industrial output decreased by 0.2% month - on - month (previous value 0.1%), and the housing start - up rate in May dropped to a five - year low, down 9.8%. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, lowered the GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.4%, and raised the core inflation forecast to 3.1% [39]. Configuration Suggestions - For large - category assets: In the short term, equity assets may be favorable, while crude oil and gold may face correction pressure [34]. - For the domestic bond market: The recent keyword is more upward direction, limited space, and emphasis on micro - operations. The yield of 10 - year Chinese bonds is approaching 1.6%, and small opportunities can be grasped from curve convex points and "micro - operations" [34]. - For the domestic stock market: Policy strength and performance drivers need to be realized. Continue to trade along industrial hotspots, policy expectations, and "high - to - low" rotations [35]. - For US Treasury bonds: The cooling of the US economy may bring short - term opportunities for US Treasury bonds. It is recommended to lay out 10 - year US Treasury bonds when the yield is above 4.5%, and the 2 - year variety is relatively more stable [35]. - For US stocks: Although the short - term sentiment is strong, the valuation has been repaired to a historical high, and there is still downward pressure on earnings. Pay attention to the return of the AI narrative and avoid tariff - affected sectors [36]. - For commodities: After the supply concerns are alleviated, commodities are generally under pressure and will gradually return to fundamental pricing. It is recommended to buy gold on dips, and crude oil is expected to be weak in the short term. It is judged that copper is better than oil [36]. Follow - up Concerns - Domestic: June official manufacturing PMI, June Caixin manufacturing PMI, and the Summer Davos Forum [52]. - Overseas: A series of US economic data including May new home sales, initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21, etc., as well as economic data from the eurozone, the UK, and Japan [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The easing of the Middle - East situation and the possible delay of interest rate cuts have suppressed gold prices in the short - term, but long - term supporting factors remain [3]. - **Copper**: In the short - term, copper prices may fluctuate around 78,000 yuan per ton. Considering the possible weakening of demand, the upside pressure is large and the downside support is relatively weak [13]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum's fundamentals show sufficient supply and gradually weakening demand. Low inventory is the short - term core factor supporting prices, with short - term high - level fluctuations and a long - term bearish outlook. Alumina is in low - level operation, and cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [30][31][32]. - **Zinc**: The supply side is gradually becoming looser, but the transmission from ore to ingot needs time. The demand is stable, and in the short - term, macro data and market sentiment should be focused on, along with inventory data [59]. - **Nickel**: The overall nickel industry is affected by the situation in the Middle - East and the US macro - level. Nickel ore may remain tight, the contradiction in the nickel - iron link is difficult to resolve, and the supply - demand situation of stainless steel may improve if the production cut continues. Sulfuric acid nickel maintains a production - based - on - sales trend [72]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are expected to remain stable in the short - term. The continuous decline in inventory and the under - recovery of upstream tin mines provide support, while weak downstream demand creates pressure [88]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is weak. The supply and demand fundamentals have not improved, and high inventory suppresses price increases. It is expected to fluctuate this week [103]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: The supply of the silicon industry chain is strong, while the demand is weak. High inventory suppresses price increases [113]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: The cease - fire in the Middle - East has weakened the safe - haven demand, and the possible delay of interest rate cuts has tightened the US dollar liquidity, suppressing gold prices [3]. - **Price Data**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios are presented in the report [4]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term copper prices may fluctuate around 78,000 yuan per ton, with greater upside pressure and weaker downside support [13]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are provided [14]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic copper spot prices and spot premiums are given [19]. - **Import and Processing Data**: Copper import profit and loss and copper concentrate TC data are presented [23]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data on SHFE and LME copper inventories are provided [27][28]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: The supply is sufficient, demand is gradually weakening, and low inventory supports short - term prices. The inventory increase on June 23 may or may not be the inflection point [30]. - **Alumina**: The Axis mine in Guinea may remain shut down in the short - term, and alumina is in low - level operation due to the game between production resumption and maintenance [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is strongly supported, but the demand growth may slow down. The futures contract is in a BACK structure, and the price may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [32]. - **Price and Spread Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum and alumina futures, as well as various price spreads, are provided [35][38]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum and alumina spot prices, as well as various basis and price spreads, are given [43]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data on SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina inventories are provided [51]. Zinc - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply side is gradually becoming looser, but the transmission from ore to ingot needs time. The demand is stable, and in the short - term, macro data and inventory data should be focused on [59]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and LME zinc futures are provided [60]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of zinc spot prices and spot premiums are given [65]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data on SHFE and LME zinc inventories are provided [68]. Nickel - **Industry Situation**: The overall industry is affected by the Middle - East situation and US macro - factors. Nickel ore may be tight, the nickel - iron link has contradictions, and the stainless - steel supply - demand situation may improve with production cuts. Sulfuric acid nickel maintains a production - based - on - sales trend [72]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel futures are provided [73][75]. - **Inventory and Related Data**: Data on nickel spot prices, warehouse receipts, nickel ore prices, and inventory are presented [79][81]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Tin prices may remain stable in the short - term, with support from inventory and under - recovery of upstream mines, and pressure from weak downstream demand [88]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London tin futures are provided [89]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data on SHFE and LME tin inventories are provided [97]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is weak. The supply and demand fundamentals have not improved, and high inventory suppresses price increases. It is expected to fluctuate this week [103]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices are provided [104][108]. - **Inventory Data**: Data on Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and various lithium carbonate inventories are presented [111]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. High inventory suppresses price increases [113]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot and futures prices are provided [115][116]. - **Related Product Prices**: Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other silicon - related products are presented [124][126]. - **Inventory and Production Data**: Data on industrial silicon production, inventory, and industry average costs are provided [131][137][140].

Market Overview - The bond market continued to show weakness, with most government bond futures closing lower and interbank bond yields generally rising by around 1 basis point in the afternoon [1][2] - The central bank's net MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) injection reached 118 billion yuan in June, indicating a continued effort to stabilize market expectations and support credit issuance [1][5] Bond Market Performance - The 30-year government bond futures fell by 0.22% to 120.670, while the 10-year futures decreased by 0.04% to 108.995 [2] - The yield on the 30-year government bond rose by 1.25 basis points to 1.862%, and the 10-year government bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.7235% [2] International Bond Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively declined, with the 2-year yield falling by 3.6 basis points to 3.819% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields also fell, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 2.6 basis points [3] - European bond yields generally decreased, with the 10-year UK bond yield dropping by 4.6 basis points to 4.490% [3] Primary Market Activity - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had a successful auction with yields of 1.4076%, 1.6739%, and 1.7537% for 1-year, 3-year, and 10-year bonds respectively, indicating strong demand [4] Liquidity Conditions - The People's Bank of China conducted a 300 billion yuan MLF operation to maintain liquidity, resulting in a net injection of 118 billion yuan for June [5] - Short-term Shibor rates rose across the board, with the overnight rate increasing by 0.1 basis points to 1.371% [5] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that the acceleration of government bond issuance in Q3 may increase liquidity support needs from financial institutions, suggesting potential for further monetary easing measures [7] - Huatai Fixed Income highlighted that current consumption is driven by policy but faces challenges from low endogenous momentum, indicating a need for more demand-side policies to stimulate consumption [7]

事件 一是在政府债券持续大规模发行、近月银行同业存单到期规模处于"高峰期"阶段，保持银行体系流动性 持续处于充裕状态，控制资金面波动，稳定市场预期； 二是释放数量型货币政策工具持续加力的政策信号，推动存量社融和M2增速稳中有升，更好满足企业 和居民的融资需求，强化逆周期调节。 往后看，下半年货币政策有望在扩内需、稳增长方向进一步发力，并强化与财政政策的协调配合，作为 重要的数量型政策工具之一，MLF有望持续加量续作，并结合买断式逆回购操作，保持中期流动性处 于净投放状态。这一方面会确保资金面处于较为稳定的充裕水平，支持政府债券发行，同时也能增强银 行放贷能力，加大金融对实体经济的支持力度，及时有效对冲外部环境波动对宏观经济运行的影响。 要点解读如下 央行6月24日宣布，将于6月25日（周三）开展3000亿MLF操作。 本月有1820亿MLF到期，这意味着6月央行MLF净投放达到1180亿，为连续第四个月加量续作。考虑到 截止6月16日，央行还开展了2000亿买断式逆回购净投放，这意味着6月中期流动性净投放总额已达3180 亿。考虑到本月已开展两次不同期限品种的买断式逆回购，较为充分地满足了金融机构资金需求，我 ...

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.03% to close at 3455.97 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.72% to 10393.72 points, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 3.11% to 2128.39 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1602.789 billion yuan [1] Banking Sector - The banking sector led the market rally, with major banks such as Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Bank, Construction Bank, and Bank of Communications reaching historical highs [2] - Other banks, including Jiangsu Bank and Hangzhou Bank, also saw their stock prices rise by over 2% and hit historical highs [2] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 300 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, contributing to a net liquidity injection of 1180 billion yuan in June, marking the fourth consecutive month of increased liquidity [3] - The total net liquidity injection for June, including a 2000 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, reached 3180 billion yuan [3] - Experts anticipate further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year, with potential cuts of 30 basis points and 0.5 percentage points, respectively [3] Margin Trading and Foreign Investment - The margin trading balance has shown a recovery, remaining above 1.8 trillion yuan for 11 consecutive trading days [4] - Foreign investment institutions express optimism about the Chinese market, with firms like Goldman Sachs maintaining an overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, projecting a target for the CSI 300 Index at 4600 points [4] Global Economic Factors - Expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut are rising, with Federal Reserve officials indicating potential cuts if labor market conditions worsen [5] - The approval of cryptocurrency trading services by Guotai Junan International reflects a growing interest in virtual assets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing measures to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, including a 300 billion MLF operation and multiple reverse repos, indicating a moderately accommodative monetary policy to stabilize market expectations and support financing needs [1][2]. Group 1 - The PBOC will conduct a 300 billion MLF operation with a one-year term on June 25, 2025, marking a net injection of 118 billion MLF in June, the fourth consecutive month of increased liquidity [1]. - In June, the PBOC executed two reverse repo operations, injecting a total of 2 trillion yuan, which is the first time such operations were announced twice in one month [1]. - The combination of MLF and reverse repos aims to ensure sufficient liquidity at the end of the half-year period, addressing the impact of government bond issuance on liquidity [1][2]. Group 2 - The recent liquidity conditions are influenced by large-scale government bond issuances and a peak in interbank certificates of deposit maturities, necessitating a stable liquidity environment [2]. - The PBOC's liquidity management tools are well-stocked and diversified, with a clear focus on providing one-year liquidity through MLF, while also utilizing various short- and medium-term tools [2]. - Anticipation of liquidity disturbances in July due to tax payments and government bond issuance suggests that the PBOC will continue to use MLF and reverse repos to meet liquidity demands and signal stability [3].