投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250703 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美元指数止步九连跌，国内市场响应"反内卷"政策 海外方面，特朗普宣布与越南达成贸易协议，越南市场将全面向美开放，并同意对输美 商品征收 20%关税、对转运货物征收 40%关税，突显美国打击转口贸易的意图。美国 6 月 "小非农"录得-3.3 万人，创 2023 年 3 月以来最大降幅，近期就业数据冷暖不一，关注今 日晚间非农就业数据。目前市场几乎定价美联储将在 9 月前降息，美元指数震荡上涨、结束 9 连跌，美股再创新高，黄金、原油与铜价齐涨。 国内方面，市场对"反内卷、出清落后产能"政策反映积极，长期产能过剩的内需品种 （新能源、黑色、生猪）迎来显著反弹，相较于 2015 年以去产能为核心、聚焦上游行业的 供给侧改革，本轮"反内卷"政策更倾向于调整中下游产业结构，着力缓解部分中下游行业 的过度竞争与无效内卷，以缓解物价低迷的困局。目前处于"反内卷"叙事的初期，从预期 走向落地，预期到现实仍需 ...

Market Review and Analysis - The primary market saw the issuance of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds amounting to 1110 billion, 6416 billion, and 1150 billion respectively, with net financing of 1110 billion, 5604 billion, and 1093 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) totaled an issuance of 839 billion with a net financing of 612 billion, while non-financial credit bonds had an issuance of 2889 billion and a net financing of 11 billion [1] - The secondary market exhibited a fluctuating performance influenced by factors such as cross-quarter liquidity, the ceasefire in the Israel-Palestine conflict, military parade news, and market sentiment [1] Liquidity Tracking - The central bank's open market operations (OMO) showed a net injection, and the medium-term lending facility (MLF) was rolled over, supporting the cross-quarter liquidity [1] - The R001 and R007 rates increased by 1.2 basis points and 32.9 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [1] Policy and Fundamentals - In May, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises turned negative, impacted by base effect, price wars, and tariff shocks [1] - High-frequency data indicates stable production, sluggish consumption, and continued pressure on prices, with a significant drop in oil prices following the ceasefire [1] Overseas Market - Several Federal Reserve officials expressed dovish views, and weakening economic data in the U.S. has raised market expectations for interest rate cuts within the year [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond closed at 4.29%, down 9 basis points from the previous week [1] Equity Market - The easing of the Israel-Palestine conflict significantly boosted market sentiment, leading to a rise in most broad-based A-share indices, with the total A-share index increasing by 3.56% and the ChiNext index rising by 5.69% [2] - The average daily trading volume in A-shares surged to 1.49 trillion, with a weekly increase of 2716.46 billion [2] - As of June 26, 2025, the total financing balance for A-shares reached 18265.35 billion, an increase of 173.68 billion from June 19 [2] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - Factors favoring the bond market are increasing in July, although the central bank's monetary policy tone may lead to a temporary market sentiment adjustment [2] - Historical trends suggest that bond market bullish forces may strengthen in July due to seasonal liquidity easing and reduced bank liability pressure [2] - A recommended strategy includes a combination of short to medium-term credit bonds and long-duration government bonds [2] - The convertible bond market faces supply-demand imbalances, with some banks redeeming convertible bonds, leading to a scarcity of underlying assets [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. ADP employment report for June showed an unexpected decrease of 33,000 jobs, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, against an expectation of an increase of 98,000 jobs [1] - The service sector experienced a significant decline, losing 66,000 jobs in June, the largest drop since the pandemic began, indicating a bleak employment outlook in the U.S. [1] - Following the ADP report, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July increased, with FedWatch showing a rise from 20% to approximately 23% for a rate cut, and the federal funds futures indicating a jump to 27.4% [1] Group 2 - Recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that inflation and employment conditions may lead to an earlier rate cut, contributing to rising market expectations for such a move [2] - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, supported by Trump, passed a procedural vote in the Senate, potentially increasing U.S. debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, which may heighten concerns over fiscal deficits and benefit gold prices [2] Group 3 - The gold ETF (518800) closely tracks gold price movements and offers T+0 trading, making it a more convenient and liquid option compared to physical gold investments [3] - Investors are encouraged to consider gradual investments in gold ETFs during price corrections, as the current market shows high volatility in gold prices [3]

周四（7月3日）亚市早盘，现货黄金短线冲高回落，黄金价格失守3350美元关口，ADP就业数据的疲软 点燃了降息预期，成为金价上涨的直接催化剂，今日即将发布的非农就业报告将进一步决定市场走势的 方向。 黄金价格周三震荡上行，当天最低3327，最高3360，日线小阳收于3356，日线看今日金价还将继续上 涨，上方关注3400一线，四小时线，震荡上行，小时线，早间冲高3365回落，目前处于3350下方，下方 关注3330和3300，重点关注晚间非农数据。 高盛分析师的预测更为悲观，认为新增就业岗位可能仅为8.5万个，且联邦政府职位减少1.5万个，特朗 普政府的移民政策收紧及关税对制造业的持续拖累可能进一步加剧就业市场的压力。 Kitco Metals高级分析师Jim Wyckoff警告，如果非农数据远超预期，可能会削弱降息预期，对金价走势 构成利空。 非农就业报告的重要性不仅在于其数据本身，还在于其对美联储货币政策路径的指引。就业市场的任何 意外表现都可能引发市场剧烈波动。如果数据继续显示劳动力市场疲软，投资者对降息的信心将进一步 增强，金价有望延续涨势。反之，若数据强劲，美联储可能放缓降息步伐，短期内对金价形成压 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Short - term copper prices are strong. The core drivers are the ongoing "232" investigation in the US and the unresolved LME warehouse receipt issue, which provide strong support for copper prices. Before the "232" investigation is finalized, the tight supply situation in non - US regions is difficult to reverse, and the main contract is expected to trade between 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, with the main contract trading in the range of 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels in the short - term, with the main contract trading between 20,000 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate, with the main contract trading between 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Short - term zinc prices have rebounded due to higher interest rate cut expectations and a weak US dollar. However, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and a short - on - rallies strategy is recommended in the medium - to - long - term, with the main contract trading between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment provides support, but the nickel fundamentals have not changed much. The cost support for refined nickel has weakened, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. The price upside is limited. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract trading between 116,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term under macro - support, with the main contract trading between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy trends and steel - mill production cut rhythms [12]. Tin - In the short - term, tin prices are expected to be strong and fluctuate. However, considering the pessimistic demand outlook, a short - on - rallies strategy based on inventory and import data is recommended [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate still face pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the performance around 65,000 yuan/ton and changes in macro - expectations [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose 0.98% to 80,990 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread increased by 11.18% to 2,403 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30%. In May, the import volume was 253,100 tons, an increase of 1.23%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 12.44% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.14% to 20,810 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22%. The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.86% week - on - week [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 100% to 0 tons. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.38% to 26,100 tons. The import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots increased by 11.75% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot rose 0.04% to 22,290 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 262.82 yuan/ton to - 911 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, an increase of 6.50%. The social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots in seven regions increased by 3.60% week - on - week [8]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.49% to 122,050 yuan/ton. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 3.85% to 2,500 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, Chinese refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04%. The import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90%. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1.51% week - on - week [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose 0.40% to 12,700 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread decreased by 23.08% to 200 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 1.7912 million tons, an increase of 0.36%. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased by 0.28% week - on - week [12]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin rose 0.75% to 268,500 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 17.60% to - 13,401.25 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39%. SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 0.57% to 61,650 yuan/ton. The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 160 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34%. The demand was 918,866 tons, a decrease of 0.15%. The total inventory increased by 2.27% month - on - month [17].

国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025年07月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：降息预期升温 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 2 | | 铜：美元承压，价格坚挺 | 4 | | 锌：区间运行 | 6 | | 铅：中期偏强 | 7 | | 锡：宏观环境带动上行 | 8 | | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 10 | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 10 | 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 3 日 黄金：降息预期升温 白银：继续冲高 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | -- ...

2025年07月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：降息预期升温 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 3 | | 铜：美元承压，价格坚挺 | 5 | | 锌：区间运行 | 7 | | 铅：中期偏强 | 8 | | 锡：宏观环境带动上行 | 9 | | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 11 | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：治理内卷式竞争主要影响下游汽车行业需求，关注宏观情绪扰动放大波动率 | 13 | | 工业硅：短期情绪扰动，关注上方空间 | 15 | | 多晶硅：盘面预计冲高回落 | 15 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 17 | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪提振，偏强震荡 | 18 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪提振，偏强震荡 | 18 | | 硅铁：宏观情绪提振，震荡偏强 | 20 | | 锰硅：宏观情绪提振，震荡偏强 | 20 | | 焦炭：反内卷信号发酵，震荡偏强 | 22 | | 焦煤：反内卷信号发酵，震荡偏强 | 22 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 24 | | 原木：主力切换，宽 ...

贵金属日报 2025-07-03 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 沪金涨 0.26 %，报 779.66 元/克，沪银涨 0.71 %，报 8845.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 0.07 %， 报 3362.20 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 0.12 %，报 36.77 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.3%，美元指数报 96.74 ； 市场展望： 昨日公布的美国 ADP 就业数据显著偏弱，进一步加强市场对于联储宽松的货币政策预期，对 贵金属价格形成利多因素。 美国 6 月 ADP 就业人数减少 3.3 万人，大幅低于预期的新增 9.5 万人以及前值的新增 2.9 万人。 鲍威尔在欧洲央行活动中强调联储决策的数据依赖性，而昨夜的 ADP 就业数据则体现了美国劳 动力市场的弱化。当前需重点关注今夜将公布的美国 6 月非农就业人口变动数，市场预期 6 月 新增非农就业人口数为 11 万人，低于前值的 13.9 万人。若非农数据再度低于预期，则市场的 ...

美东时间7月2日，美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.02%； 标普500指数涨0.47%，创历史新高； 纳指涨0.94%，创收盘历史新高 。 当地时间7月2日，美国公布6月ADP报告（由美国自动数据处理公司发布的就业数据报告，通常被视为 非农就业数据的先行指标，被称为"小非农"）。私营部门就业人数6月减少3.3万人，创2023年3月以来 最大降幅，而预估为增加9.8万人。 | 新版 成分 | 资讯 | 相关基金 | | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ◆ | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 315.650 | 4.97% | | TSLA.O | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 157.250 | 2.58% | | NVDA.O | | | | 苹果(APPLE) | 212.440 | 2.22% | | AAPL.O | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABET)· | 179.760 | 1.61% | | GOOG.O | | | | 微软(MICROSOFT | 491.090 | -0.20% | | MSFT.O | | | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | ...

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 降息预期和关税预期升温，利好 金价 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升，铜价上行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：近期金价维持强势运行，海外金价拉升至 3350 美元一线，国内 ...