Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate is experiencing fluctuations around 0.8020, with previous gains being fully retraced, as market sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve's policy outlook becomes more cautious [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The initial jobless claims data reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in the coming months, with a 95% probability of no rate change at the January 27-28 meeting [3] - The Fed's next rate cut is now anticipated to be postponed until June, driven by a strong labor market and persistent inflation concerns [3] - The labor market remains stable, reducing the necessity for short-term rate cuts and providing potential support for the USD [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Exchange Rate Dynamics - The stability of the Federal Reserve's policy has provided clear signals to the market, alleviating volatility caused by policy uncertainty and positively impacting market sentiment [4] - Key indicators to watch include the December industrial production data and public comments from Fed officials, which will directly influence market expectations and the USD/CHF exchange rate [4] - The USD/CHF pair is expected to maintain a range-bound movement, with the Fed's policy outlook and U.S. economic data being the primary drivers of its trajectory [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the cautious and steady approach of the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, as indicated by the statements of Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson [1][3] - The current benchmark interest rate is maintained in the range of 3.5%-3.75%, with Paulson suggesting that this level is slightly above neutral, aiding in the final push to reduce inflation [3] - The labor market shows structural concerns, with job growth concentrated in specific sectors, indicating potential hidden vulnerabilities despite overall economic expansion [5][6] Group 2 - Inflation is moving towards the 2% target, with companies exhibiting caution in pricing behavior due to competitive pressures, providing a rationale for the Fed to maintain its current stance [8] - Paulson's remarks, while leaning towards a hawkish tone, leave open the possibility of later interest rate cuts, suggesting that the bullish logic for gold remains intact but may slow down [10] - Recommendations for investors include controlling positions before the upcoming FOMC meeting, monitoring inflation boundaries, and considering geopolitical uncertainties as a support for gold prices [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro-finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black building materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended to sell on rallies [1][7]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper is advised to hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations; aluminum suggests enhanced observation; nickel suggests observation or selling on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver is expected to be relatively strong; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][10]. - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary observation; styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to be weakly volatile [1][18]. - **Cotton - spinning industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust sideways; apples are expected to be slightly strong sideways; jujubes are expected to rebound from the bottom [1][26]. - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to sell on rallies in the near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish in the far - term contracts; eggs suggest waiting to sell on rallies for hedging; corn suggests being cautious about chasing highs in the short term and selling on rallies for hedging; soymeal is recommended to be bullish on dips in the near - term contracts and bearish on rallies in the far - term contracts; oils are expected to trade sideways, with rapeseed oil being stronger than soybean and palm oils in the short term [1][29]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the influencing factors of each product and gives corresponding investment strategies, including buying on dips, selling on rallies, range trading, and temporary observation [1]. Summaries by Categories Macro - finance - **Index futures**: Influenced by factors such as Fed officials' statements, employment data, and China's monetary policy, the market sentiment has cooled, and index futures are expected to trade sideways. It is bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips [5]. - **Treasury bonds**: After the central bank's interest rate cut of structural monetary policy tools, the bond market showed a deep "V" trend. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5]. Black building materials - **Coking coal**: With a slowdown in replenishment and cautious purchasing, and an accumulation of port inventories, the market is in a state of short - term balance between bulls and bears. It is suitable for short - term trading [7]. - **Rebar**: The futures price is in the range between valley - electricity cost and flat - electricity cost of the electric furnace. In the short term, it is in a policy vacuum period, and the export is expected to weaken. It is expected to trade sideways, and attention can be paid to the positive cash - futures arbitrage opportunities [7]. - **Glass**: Although there are short - term factors such as production line shutdowns and inventory reduction, the fundamental pattern has not changed. The inventory problem will still be prominent, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [7][8]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: In the short term, the upward momentum is exhausted, but the long - term shortage expectation still exists. It is expected to trade in a high - level range with a possible downward shift in the range. It is advised to hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: The over - supply of alumina is a reality, and the policy is uncertain. The upward pressure on aluminum prices is large in January. It is recommended to enhance observation [12]. - **Nickel**: Although there is a reduction in nickel ore quotas, the long - term oversupply is expected to continue. It is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [13][14]. - **Tin**: With tight supply and recovering downstream consumption, it is expected to trade strongly sideways. It is recommended to build positions on dips [14]. - **Silver and gold**: Affected by factors such as the US employment data and interest rate cuts, the medium - term price centers are expected to move up. Silver is recommended to hold long positions, and gold is for range trading [16]. - **Lithium carbonate**: With supply uncertainties and strong downstream demand, it is expected to trade in a range [17][18]. Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, it has a low valuation. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy, and attention can be paid to policies and cost - end disturbances [18]. - **Caustic soda**: With large supply pressure and weak demand, it is recommended to temporarily observe [20]. - **Styrene**: After a previous rebound, the valuation is high. It is for range trading, and attention should be paid to cost and supply - demand changes [20]. - **Rubber**: In a state of long - short balance, it is for range trading. Attention should be paid to inventory and downstream demand [21]. - **Urea**: With an increase in supply and stable demand, it is expected to trade in a range. Attention should be paid to factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies [22]. - **Methanol**: With a recovery in supply and a weak traditional demand, the price is expected to be weak in the inland market and strong in some areas. It is for range trading [24]. - **Polyolefins**: With a loose supply and a weakening demand in the traditional off - season, the price is expected to be weakly volatile [24][25]. - **Soda ash**: With an over - supply situation and rising costs, it is recommended to temporarily observe [26]. Cotton - spinning industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the price has adjusted after a previous rise. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [26][27]. - **Apples**: The market is relatively stable, with different trading situations in different regions. It is expected to be slightly strong sideways [27]. - **Jujubes**: The acquisition in Xinjiang has ended, and the market is showing signs of a bottom - rebound [28]. Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: In the short term, the supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to be under pressure. In the long term, the capacity reduction is slow, and it is recommended to be cautiously bullish. It is suitable to sell on rallies for hedging [29][30]. - **Eggs**: The short - term price is expected to be strong seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. In the long term, the capacity reduction takes time. It is recommended to wait to sell on rallies for hedging [32][33]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the price increase is limited, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and sell on rallies for hedging. In the long term, the demand is gradually released, but the supply - demand situation is relatively loose [34][35][36]. - **Soymeal**: The short - term near - term contract is recommended to be bullish on dips, and the far - term contract is recommended to be bearish on rallies [37][38]. - **Oils**: The three major oils are expected to trade sideways, with rapeseed oil being stronger than soybean and palm oils in the short term [38][43].

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai retreated to 103,000 yuan per ton, while London copper fluctuated around 13,155 USD [4][17] - The U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 198,000, significantly below market expectations, indicating a slowdown in the job market, but the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, leading to a cooling market sentiment [5][17] - The increase in copper warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange by 13,000 tons to 163,000 tons, while LME copper inventories decreased by 500 tons to 141,100 tons [5][17] - The State Grid expects investments during the 14th Five-Year Plan to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan [5][17] - Overall, macro sentiment adjustments and the postponement of key overseas mineral tariff investigations may exert pressure on recent prices, but pre-holiday stocking demand and raw material tightness may limit the downside for copper prices [5][17] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced an adjustment of nickel ore RKAB quotas to 250-260 million tons by 2026, which is expected to provide short-term support for nickel prices [6][18] - The nickel market lacks further supply-demand contradictions, and the tightening quota expectations have already been priced in [6][18] - The current strategy for nickel and stainless steel is to remain on the sidelines, with Shanghai nickel futures expected to trade between 140,000 and 160,000 yuan per ton [6][19] Group 3: Aluminum Market - The price of alumina has slightly declined, maintaining a downward trend in spot prices, with the 05 contract showing increased short positions [20] - The overall supply of alumina is excessive, with production slightly rebounding to around 96 million tons [20] - The market anticipates a continued decline in spot prices due to lower production costs and reduced concerns about large-scale production cuts in the alumina industry [20] - The 05 contract for alumina is expected to trade between 2,500 and 2,800 yuan per ton, with a recommendation to hold short positions [20][21] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc prices showed a slight upward trend, with the U.S. initial jobless claims decreasing and the New York manufacturing index returning to expansion territory [23] - Domestic TC prices are stabilizing at low levels, while overseas prices are also declining, leading to a slight recovery in the import supply [23] - The strategy for zinc is to remain observant, with the main contract expected to trade between 24,500 and 25,500 yuan per ton [23] Group 5: Lead Market - Lead prices showed a slight upward trend, with supply-side pressures easing due to adjustments in primary smelter maintenance plans [24] - The recycling of waste batteries is expected to decline, but the willingness of recyclers to maintain prices is increasing [24] - The strategy for lead is to operate within a range, with the main contract expected to trade between 17,000 and 18,000 yuan per ton [24] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced slight fluctuations, with gold, silver, and palladium showing minor pullbacks, while platinum saw slight gains [26] - The U.S. has temporarily refrained from imposing tariffs on key minerals, which has led to some profit-taking pressure in the market [26] - The overall market remains uncertain, with ongoing geopolitical tensions supporting safe-haven demand for precious metals [26]

Group 1 - International precious metals futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.33% at $4620.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.90% at $92.21 per ounce [1] - Analysts believe that hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials and better-than-expected U.S. economic data have increased rate hike expectations, putting pressure on gold prices [1] - On January 15, Asian gold and silver prices fell as investors took profits after both metals reached historical highs in the previous trading session [1] Group 2 - Spot silver prices touched a historical high of $93.57 per ounce before dropping 3.4% to $89.63 per ounce, following signals of easing geopolitical tensions [1] - Investors engaged in profit-taking after three consecutive days of significant price increases, leading to a decline in gold prices [5] - The market is awaiting U.S. weekly initial jobless claims data to gain further insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, with traders expecting two rate cuts this year [5] Group 3 - As of January 14, the Huaan Gold ETF's circulation scale reached 100.762 billion yuan, becoming the first gold ETF in China to surpass 100 billion yuan and maintaining its position as the largest gold ETF in Asia [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the remarkable surge in silver prices, which have increased significantly due to supply-demand imbalances, macroeconomic policies, and industrial demand, positioning silver as a key investment opportunity in the current market [2][8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market has faced a structural shortage, with a projected supply gap of 3,700 tons by 2025, marking a ten-year high. This shortage is exacerbated by the fact that approximately 70-72% of silver is produced as a byproduct of mining other metals, making it difficult to increase silver production in the short term [10][11]. - Major silver-producing countries are experiencing production declines due to various factors, including political instability in Peru and sanctions affecting Russia, while new mining projects in Australia are insufficient to offset declines from older mines [10][11]. Industrial Demand and Macroeconomic Factors - Industrial demand for silver has exploded, with over 60% of silver consumption now coming from industrial applications, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, which is expected to demand 0.61 million tons by 2025 [14]. - The macroeconomic environment, characterized by expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, has created a favorable backdrop for silver investments, driving down the holding costs of non-yielding assets like silver [15]. Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - The market has seen a significant influx of investment, with net physical investment in silver projected to reach approximately 6,400 tons by 2025. This surge in interest has led to a dramatic increase in silver prices, with a notable 3.56% rise in a single day [17]. - There is a stark divide among institutional forecasts regarding silver prices, with optimistic projections suggesting a target of $100 per ounce in the near term, while more conservative views highlight potential volatility and profit-taking among investors [18]. Conclusion - The current silver market is characterized by a combination of strong fundamental support from supply-demand dynamics and industrial growth, alongside speculative investment behavior. Investors are advised to approach the market with caution, considering both the potential for high returns and the inherent volatility associated with silver investments [19].

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责 任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用 、删节和修改。 贵金属期货日报 2026/1/15 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 1035.200 | -5.4↓ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 22665 | -98.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 93,276.00 | -7403.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 1,470.00 | +32.00↑ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | 190,086.00 | -11001.00↓ ...

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1月14日，黄金与白银周二双双创下历史新高，现货黄金最高触及每盎司4634美元的历史新高，但随后 迅速回落，最终收盘在4586美元，日线最终收阴。现货白银上涨2.1%至每盎司86.92美元，盘中亦刷新 历史高点至89.11美元，今天早盘更是触及到90美元新高位置。周三（北京时间1月14日）亚市早盘，现 货黄金又是高开高走，一路攀升，目前交投于4620美元附近。 基本消息面： 美国12月消费者物价指数（CPI）的公布，本应是黄金多头的福音，却在实际走势中引发了市场的复杂 反应。数据显示，CPI环比上涨0.3%，同比2.7%，影响较小；核心CPI环比0.2%、同比2.6%，均低于分 析师预期的0.3%和2.7%。然而，黄金价格在数据公布后并未持续走高，反而从高点回落，这反映出市 场对通胀数据的解读并非一边倒，虽然通胀低于预期支持降息，但它也暗示经济冷却迹象，圣路易斯联 储主席穆萨莱姆强调，在通胀仍高于2%目标的情况下，近期无进一步降息理由，这让短期降息预期冷 却。 地缘政治方面，当地时间13日，以色列外交部长萨尔宣布，以色列决定退出多个联合国机构及相关组 织。以方称，这些机构存在"反以色列偏见"等问题。丹麦和格陵 ...