贵金属日报 2025-12-18 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 0.53 %，报 982.48 元/克，沪银涨 3.93 %，报 15594.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4371.40 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 66.44 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.16%，美元指数报 98.38 ； 昨日美联储理事沃勒发表讲话，总体基调偏鸽派。他认为就业市场疲软，降息有助于改善就业 前景。而通胀在未来几个月将有所下降，美联储仅凭通胀前景缓和即可进行降息操作。 美国劳动力市场表现疲软，美国 11 月新增非农就业人口数为 6.4 万人，高于预期的 5 万人， 但十月份新增非农就业数据则录得 10.5 万人的下跌。 从 10 月和 11 月非农就业数据来看，建筑业撑起商品生产就业，而医疗保健几乎是服务业新增 就业的唯一支撑，政府就业由于关门影响扰动较大。总体就业格局从分项来看表现疲乏，符合 鲍威尔所说的劳动力市场具备风险的情况：建筑业新增就业 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the policy - supported attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - For national debt, in the short term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after over - decline [6]. - For precious metals, the weak US non - farm payroll data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards silver [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, the prices of copper, aluminum, etc. are expected to be relatively stable or have upward potential due to factors such as supply - demand structure and macro - policies, while zinc, lead, etc. may face some downward pressure [11][13][16]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation, and the price of iron ore is estimated to run within an oscillation range [33][35]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber can be short - term operated with a neutral - to - long idea, and oil prices are recommended to be traded with a low - buy and high - sell strategy [53][57]. - For agricultural products, the prices of different products such as pigs, eggs, and beans are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship and seasonal factors, presenting different trends and investment suggestions [81][84][86]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The A500ETF had a huge trading volume of nearly 53 billion yuan, three times that of the CSI 300ETF. The national general public budget revenue from January to November was 20.0516 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. SpaceX entered the pre - IPO regulatory quiet period [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the end of the year, some funds cash in on profits, and the market faces certain uncertainties. But in the long - term, the policy - supported attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged, and the strategy is to go long on dips [4]. National Debt - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. The national general public budget revenue from January to November was 20.0516 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The central bank conducted 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In November, the production side was stable, but the service industry was weak, and the demand side needed to be strengthened. The expectation of interest rate cuts is expected to boost the bond market sentiment. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 0.53% to 982.48 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 3.93% to 15,594 yuan/kilogram. The US non - farm payroll data was weak, and the Fed governor's speech was dovish [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The weak non - farm payroll data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards silver [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The silver price hit a new high, and the copper price rose. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic futures warehouse receipts decreased. The domestic copper spot import was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference widened [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The liquidity expectation is marginally relaxed, and the supply of copper ore is tight. The short - term copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts continued to increase, and the aluminum price rose. The domestic aluminum inventory decreased, and the spot was at a discount [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global aluminum inventory is decreasing, and the aluminum price is strongly supported. It is expected to rise after oscillation [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price fell, the zinc ore inventory decreased, and the LME zinc inventory slowly increased. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased, and the import was at a loss [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc ore inventory decreased, and the domestic spot tightened. After the Fed's meeting, the zinc price may give back some gains [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price fell, the lead ore inventory was basically flat, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is expected to run weakly in a wide range in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price rebounded after hitting the bottom. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price weakened [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The nickel surplus pressure is still large. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price rose. The supply side had problems such as insufficient raw materials, and the demand side was affected by high prices. The inventory increased [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The lithium carbonate price rose. The MMLC battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices increased [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern repair expectation cannot be falsified. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to fundamental dynamics [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price rose. The domestic spot was at a premium, and the overseas price fell. The futures inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to oscillate downward, and the alumina production capacity is surplus. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel market is in a traditional off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume and open interest decreased, and the inventory decreased [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is firm, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [30]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The rebar price rose slightly, and the hot - rolled coil price fell slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increased [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The terminal demand is weak, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The export license policy may suppress the price in the short term [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price rose, and the inventory increased [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of iron ore increased, and the demand decreased. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price was flat, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash price was flat, and the inventory decreased [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is in a weak supply - demand balance and is expected to oscillate narrowly. The soda ash price is expected to decline under pressure [37][39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price rose. The manganese silicon was at a premium, and the ferrosilicon was at a premium [40]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly led by the black sector and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the manganese ore and electricity price [44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price rose, and the polysilicon price rose. The inventory of industrial silicon decreased, and the inventory of polysilicon increased [45][47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial silicon supply and demand weakened marginally, and the polysilicon supply decreased and the demand was weak. Both are expected to fluctuate with the market [46][48]. Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated and rose. The inventory was low, and the demand for winter storage was positive. The tire enterprise's operating rate was different [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to operate short - term with a neutral - to - long idea and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil price fell, and the refined oil prices had different changes. The gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, and the fuel oil inventory increased [54][56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is not recommended to be overly shorted in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export support willingness [57]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol had different changes, and the futures price rose. The MTO profit was negative [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol price is expected to be sorted out at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [59]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea were stable, and the futures price rose. The inventory decreased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea supply decreased and the demand increased. It is recommended to go long at low prices [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased. The inventory of pure benzene and styrene increased, and the demand had different changes [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long at present [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price rose. The cost was stable, and the operating rate decreased. The inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies [66]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply decreased, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol supply and demand need to be improved by reducing production. Pay attention to the risk of price rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price rose. The supply was stable, and the demand decreased. The inventory decreased slightly [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA supply is expected to increase, and the demand will decrease. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price rose. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene inventory is expected to increase slightly. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price fell. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on rallies for the LL1 - 5 spread [76]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price fell. The supply increased slightly, and the demand increased slightly. The inventory decreased [77]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP supply and demand are weak, and the price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [78]. Agricultural Products Category Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price rose. Some farmers held back sales, and the demand for large pigs increased [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The pig price may rebound in the short term, but the long - term supply is high. It is recommended to short after the rebound and long the far - month contract [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price was mostly stable. The supply was stable, and the demand was different in different regions [82]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to squeeze the premium in the near - month and pay attention to the pressure in the far - month [84]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price fell. The domestic soybean meal price fell slightly, and the inventory decreased [85]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The soybean import cost has a bottom, and the soybean meal price is expected to oscillate [86]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The palm oil production and export data were different. The domestic oil price stopped falling [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The palm oil supply may reverse in the future. It is recommended to operate based on high - frequency data [88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar price oscillated weakly. The production data of major sugar - producing countries were different [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton price oscillated narrowly. The spot price rose, and the inventory increased [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is unlikely to have a unilateral trend due to uncertain policies and hedging pressure [93].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's Waller advocates a moderate pace of interest rate cuts, causing the US dollar index to weaken; the A - share market on December 17 showed a significant volume - based recovery, indicating the national team's support for the long - slow bull market; the commodity market has different trends in various sectors, such as the sugar market being affected by production and export in Brazil and India, and the energy market being influenced by geopolitical events and inventory changes. [2][3][5] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Bostic is more worried about inflation than employment; the US Senate passed a $900.6 billion defense authorization bill. Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, and silver prices soared. In the short term, the Fed's rate - cut expectation is weak, and the market lacks incremental stimuli. [11][12] - Investment suggestion: The short - term trend of gold prices is volatile and has not broken through, and the sentiment for silver is high, so be aware of increased volatility. [13] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US plans to sanction Russia's energy industry if Putin rejects the peace agreement; Treasury Secretary Bezant refutes concerns about Hassett as Fed chair candidate; Fed's Waller, a top candidate, advocates a moderate rate - cut pace. [14][15] - Investment suggestion: The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term. [18] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Oracle's $10 - billion data center financing faces obstacles, while Micron's performance and guidance exceed expectations. The Fed's Waller believes there is room for rate cuts but no need to rush. [19][20][21] - Investment suggestion: The short - term trend is weakly volatile, but maintain a generally bullish view. [22] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - On December 17, A - shares had a significant volume - based recovery. The national team's support for the stock market is evident, which further boosts confidence in the long - slow bull market of A - shares. [23][25] - Investment suggestion: Allocate evenly in long positions of various stock indexes. [26] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan. The market for treasury bond futures rose, but the long - end bonds are volatile. [27] - Investment suggestion: Be cautious about the rise of TL, and be careful when chasing the rise. [28] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for January and the export tariff. The reduction in export tax and approaching Ramadan may boost exports in January. [29] - Investment suggestion: The price is expected to stabilize, waiting for the release of subsequent high - frequency data. [29] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - There will be an auction of 550,000 tons of imported soybeans on December 19. The market is worried about US soybean exports, and domestic soybean supply is sufficient with high soybean meal inventory. [30] - Investment suggestion: The futures price of soybean meal is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies. [30] 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The drafting of the "Guidelines for the Construction of the Carbon Emission Data Factor Library in the Steel Industry" started. The steel price is slightly stronger in a volatile pattern, but the upward space is limited due to demand constraints and export issues. [31][33] - Investment suggestion: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices. [34] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory of starch enterprises has increased, with stable production and weak downstream demand. However, the approaching holiday season may bring some demand growth. [35] - Investment suggestion: In the short term, the price difference between corn starch and corn may not deviate significantly from the processing cost, and it may widen after approaching the previous low. [36] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern ports has increased slightly, and the grain inventory in the southern ports has stopped falling and rebounded. The spot price has stabilized, and the futures price has shifted from a decline to a narrow - range fluctuation. [37] - Investment suggestion: The futures contracts 03 and 05 are expected to be weakly volatile in the near term. [37] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil exported 1.6 million tons of sugar in the first two weeks of December. In mid - November, sugar production in southern Brazil decreased due to factors such as early harvest and low sugar - making ratio. India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season increased. The international sugar market may be in short supply in the first quarter, but the overall supply is expected to be loose this season. [38][40][41] - Investment suggestion: The downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be limited. [42] 2.7 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the East China market is weakly stable. The supply has decreased, and the demand is weak. The price of coking coal futures has fallen, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether subsequent restocking can support the price. [43][44] - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to whether subsequent restocking can support the price. [45] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The winning bid price of Three Gorges' 2.5GW component procurement is 0.75 - 0.763 yuan/W. Some polysilicon enterprises have raised their quotes. The establishment of a polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is expected to support the price, but the upward space is limited considering downstream losses. [46][47][48] - Investment suggestion: For existing long positions, gradually take profits. Consider buying put options. [48] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A 2.5GW solar cell joint - venture project is planned. Some silicon factories may have production cuts, but the inventory may still accumulate in the first quarter of next year if the production cuts are not sustained. [49][50] - Investment suggestion: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. [50] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A new nickel - containing mineral, Jinxiuite, was discovered. The planned nickel ore production in 2026 is expected to be 250 million tons, which may cause a supply shortage. The current production of NPI and pure nickel has decreased, and it is advisable to short on rallies next year without supply disruptions. [51][52] - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to whether the quota reduction can be implemented. [53] 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Shandong launched a Level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather, which has limited impact on the lead recycling industry. The LME will set position limits for six metals from July 2026. The lead market is weakly stable, and short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered. [54][55] - Investment suggestion: Short on rallies in the short term; wait and see for arbitrage. [56] 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME will set position limits for six metals from July 2026. The LME zinc inventory has increased, and the domestic refinery production cuts are being implemented. The zinc demand is strong, and positive spreads in monthly contracts are expected to perform well. [57] - Investment suggestion: Look for buying opportunities on mid - term pullbacks; hold positive spread positions in monthly contracts; maintain the reverse spread strategy between domestic and foreign markets. [58] 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Yichun plans to cancel 27 mining rights, which has increased market expectations for fundamental improvement. The social inventory is decreasing, but the price may decline after the resumption of production. [59][60] - Investment suggestion: In the short term, the bullish sentiment is supported, but consider buying on pullbacks in the medium - to - long term. [60] 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin inventory and the SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts have increased. Indonesia's tin export in November increased significantly. The supply from Myanmar is increasing, and the demand remains weak. [61][62][63] - Investment suggestion: The tin price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term, and beware of price drops due to geopolitical easing or capital outflows. [63] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased. Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela may cause short - term supply disruptions, but the long - term supply risk is relatively small. [64][65] - Investment suggestion: The short - term price will be affected by geopolitical changes. [66] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt has decreased. The demand is weak, but the supply is at a seasonal low, and the price is expected to be stable. Geopolitical risks may increase the cost of asphalt raw materials. [66] - Investment suggestion: The asphalt price is strongly supported by geopolitical factors in the short term. [67] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports has decreased slightly. The styrene price is weakly volatile, and it may enter a inventory - building phase in early next year, but the cost may provide some support. [68][69][70] - Investment suggestion: Consider the price to be volatile in the short term. [70] 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - MSC's annual container volume at Qingdao Port exceeded 3 million TEUs. The opening price of MSK's Shanghai - Rotterdam route was lower than expected, and the market may focus on the high - point and decline slope. [71] - Investment suggestion: Hold existing short positions and pay attention to whether other shipping companies will lower their quotes. [71]

英国朝野对此反应不一。英国首相斯塔默称这是"向好的一步"，他也承认民众仍受生活成本压力困扰。 保守党则批评通胀仍处高位，指责工党政策加剧经济压力。 英国媒体注意到，对普通民众而言，通胀放缓的感受尚不明显。有居民表示，工资增长滞后于物价涨 幅，被迫削减非必要开支。 通胀数据利好进一步抬升市场降息预期。目前英国央行基准利率维持在4%，外界普遍预计，央行或在 本月利率决议中宣布圣诞节前降息，以提振经济。(完) 中新社伦敦12月17日电 (欧阳开宇 刘施岑)英国国家统计局17日发布数据显示，英国今年11月消费者价 格指数(CPI)同比上涨3.2%，较10月的3.6%显著回落，创下今年3月以来的最低水平，且降幅超出市场预 期。 数据显示，食品价格下跌是此次通胀降温的主因，蛋糕、饼干等品类降幅尤为明显，烟草价格走低及女 装折扣促销也助推通胀回落。剔除能源和食品的核心通胀率同步降至3.2%，显示通胀压力全面缓解。 不过，当前通胀率仍高于英国央行2%的目标。 ...

| 11/11 | 国校期货 | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月17日 | | 黄金 | ★☆★ 白银 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铂 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美国公布11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人好于预期的5万人，但失业率升至4.6%创2021年9月以来新高且 10月就业减少10.5万人，此外美国12月标普全球制造业PMI、服务业PMI以及10月零售销售均低于预期，数据 验证经济降温轨迹,市场维持2026年降息两次预期。黄金偏强运行逼近历史高点,如果实现突破则责金属强 势表现有望延续。 ★美国12月标普全球服务业PMI 初值52.9，创6月份以来 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 谭诗吟 2025 年 12 月 17 日 宏观点评 证券分析师 程强 姓名 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 薛威 姓名 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 平庸的数据，微弱的影响 ——2025 年 11 月美国就业数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_Main] 资格编号：S11305XXXXXX 港股执业证号：非必填 邮箱：xxxxx＠tebon.com.cn 资格编号：S11305XXXXXX 事件：美国劳工统计局公布 10 月和 11 月就业数据。10 月就业人数下降 10.5 万 人，预期下降 2.5 万人；11 月新增非农 6.4 万人，预期 5 万人；11 月失业率 4.6%， 高于预期值 4.5%。8 月和 9 月新增非农均有下修，合计较修正前减少 3.3 万人。 港股执业证号：非必填 邮箱：xxxxx＠t ...

Employment Data Summary - In November, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, slightly above the expected 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the anticipated 4.5%[1] - The October non-farm payrolls were revised to a decrease of 105,000 due to significant federal government employee losses during the government shutdown[1] - The September non-farm payrolls were also revised down from 119,000 to 108,000[1] Sector Performance - In November, the goods-producing sector added 19,000 jobs, with construction contributing 28,000 jobs, indicating a recovery in the housing cycle[2] - The service sector added 50,000 jobs, down from 61,000 in the previous month, with notable declines in transportation, warehousing, and leisure and hospitality sectors[2] - Government employment continued to decline, with a loss of 5,000 jobs in November following a loss of 157,000 in October[2] Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The October government shutdown had broader impacts beyond government employment, affecting private sector job growth, which fell from 104,000 in September to 52,000 in October[3] - Retail sales in October showed no growth, indicating a temporary contraction in overall economic demand due to the shutdown[3] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.5% in November, up from 62.4% in October, driven by a rise in employment among the 16-24 age group[4] - Job vacancy rates remained stable at 4.6%, suggesting a slight easing in recruitment demand[4] Unemployment Trends - The U6 unemployment rate rose significantly to 8.7% from 8.0% in September, with part-time employment due to economic reasons increasing to 7.831 million[5] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 236,000, indicating a potential increase in unemployment risks[5] Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the employment data release, market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 increased slightly, with the average expected cut rising from 55.4 basis points to 59.3 basis points[6] - The likelihood of a rate cut in March 2026 rose from 49.5% to 53.2%, reflecting growing confidence in potential monetary easing[6]

渣打银行（Standard Chartered）高级投资策略师拉贾特·巴塔查里亚（Rajat Bhattacharya）在2026年展望 报告中指出，在地缘政治不确定性及全球财政宽松担忧的推动下，黄金开启了创纪录的上涨行情，今年 涨幅超50%，过去三年累计涨幅更是超过150%， 今年是黄金连续第二年跑赢股票和债券，且已连续10 年跑赢债券，他表示2026年黄金将再次跑赢全球股票和债券。 每日经济新闻 12月17日，受美疲软的经济数据催化，降息预期升温，金价持续走强，白银价格再创历史新高，截至A 股收盘，COMEX黄金期货交投于4357美元/盎司附近，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨0.76%，黄金股 ETF(159562)涨2.27%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)涨2.97%。 今日盘面，大宗期货大面积上涨，碳酸锂涨超7%，沪银涨超5%，沪金涨0.8%，铜涨超1%。 ...

黄金本月横盘上破，多头二度爆发，一路狂飙150美金后。到今天接连冲高遇阻，高位洗盘，支撑上 移，重回4300上后，震荡走强，再战前高阻力。 昨天4281附近，再次空获利。 今天的走势 昨天黄金半夜惊坐起，来了超跌反弹。 直接起飞，冲高回落4300调整。 上方持续，再闯4353的强阻力。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，俄乌局势谈谈打打，又开始了和平推进计划，特朗普继续推进谈判进程，妥协或成为了唯一的 选择，整体积极信号明显。地缘风险退潮，影响黄金一个幅度回落。 另外一方面，美非农报告落地，结果11月就业数据增长6.4万，超预期的5万。不过意外的是美失业率超 预期，录得4.6，创4年的新高。劳动力市场失衡，而且加速恶化，提振降息预期，利好黄金大幅反弹。 整体强势归来，看二度反弹。 再次上破，看向4380的前高阻力。 当然了，处在4353下方，再次调整。 下方可再探4310的为主，关注支撑反弹延续。 另外，高位洗盘阶段，下方再次跌穿4310，看向4270的支撑。 黄金10月跳水后，到本月，走出了2个月的单边行情。一路爬坡，本月横盘整理后，多头再不改强势， 而且支撑上移，整体箭指历史新高，4400或已经不是什么意外。短期内 ...

11月17日，沪银期货显著走强，主力合约最高报15477.00元/千克，现涨幅达4.48%，续创历史新高，今年迄今累计涨超106%。 12月15日芝加哥商业交易所(CME)：白银期货成交量为125079手，较上个交易日减少80235手。未平仓合约为154451手，较上个交易日增加196 手。 机构观点 五矿期货：昨日公布的美国关键经济数据全面低于预期，令市场交易后续联储货币政策的进一步宽松，金银价格短线得到支撑。美国11月新增非 农就业人口数为6.4万人，高于预期的5万人，但十月份新增非农就业数据则录得10.5万人的下跌。从10月和11月非农就业数据来看，建筑业撑起商 品生产就业，而医疗保健几乎是服务业新增就业的唯一支撑，政府就业由于关门影响扰动较大。美国非农就业数据偏弱提振降息预期，但银价在 前期传闻哈塞特提名过程中已录得大幅上涨，当前白银策略上建议维持观望。 兴业期货：白银长线上行驱动未变。但短线白银做多策略已较为拥挤，资金趋于谨慎，海外最大白银ETF连续两个交易日流出。白银短线做多性 价比低于黄金。策略上，沪银02合约前多配合止盈线持有，新单等待外盘白银"多逼空"行情结束、沪银价格波动率下行后的买入机会 ...