基本面： 周一（2月9日）黄金价格早盘高开大涨，随后大跌，市场短线追空或者等地回落支撑位多单布局，金价早盘上演绝地反击，单日狂飙近4%，现货价格一度 逼近每盎司4955美元，周线顽强收涨。现货黄金延续涨势，一度上涨1.7%至5046.15美元/盎司。与此同时，白银的波动更为剧烈，上周五盘中暴跌后10%后 大幅反弹，收盘上涨逾9%，收报77.50美元/盎司，波动幅度令人咋舌，周一续涨3%至79.90美元/盎司。这绝非简单的技术性反弹，其背后是美元指数的微妙 转向、中东地缘政治"火药桶"引信的忽明忽暗、以及全球央行政策路径的混沌交织。 本次金价暴力拉升，最直接的催化剂来自于外汇市场与地缘政治两个层面的"共振"。美元的"短暂喘息"：美元指数在上周五下跌0.2%，结束了连续多日的强 势。尽管整周仍录得上涨，但此时的回落，对于以美元计价的黄金而言，如同卸下了一副沉重的枷锁，使其对持有欧元、日元等其他货币的投资者而言变 得"更便宜"，从而刺激了实物买盘和投资需求。这种"跷跷板"效应在情绪敏感时期总是被放大。中东迷雾中的"避险脉冲"：伊朗方面关于在阿曼与美国举行 的核谈判取得"良好开端"并将持续推进的表态，本意是缓和局势， ...

摘要今日周一(2月9日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1120.17元/克，较前一交易日上涨14.52元，涨幅 1.31%，日内呈现震荡上涨走势。当日开盘价报1110.53元/克，盘中最高触及1124.59元/克，最低下探至 1106.41元/克。 今日周一(2月9日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1120.17元/克，较前一交易日上涨14.52元，涨幅 1.31%，日内呈现震荡上涨走势。当日开盘价报1110.53元/克，盘中最高触及1124.59元/克，最低下探至 1106.41元/克。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 黄金市场在上周五展现出稳健的修复态势。价格自4655一线稳步起涨，摆脱了此前抛物线式的狂飙模 式，转而通过"慢阳上行"的健康方式，收复了前一交易日近半数的跌幅，并以阳线稳固了周线收盘。本 周一开盘，多头动能得以延续，金价成功突破并站稳5000这一重要的整数心理关口，标志着阶段性反弹 进入新阶段。 【要闻速递】 当前，金价面临的首要技术阻力位于5100附近，次要阻力则在5150一线。这两个位置因前期套牢盘及短 线获利了结压力，预计将产生较为明显的压制作用。小时线上今天开盘先跌后涨，4965是阳线起涨点， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, methanol futures declined and adjusted due to weak fundamentals. The methanol weighted price closed at 2,248 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a 3.19% drop from the previous week. The methanol supply was sufficient while the demand was insufficient, and the fundamentals remained weak. The support mainly came from the macro - face and geopolitical tensions. Future methanol trends need to closely follow the guidance of the macro - face, geopolitics, and crude oil [4][6][7] - In the future, methanol may fluctuate strongly. It is advisable to consider selling put options or using a bull spread strategy [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, affected by weak fundamentals, methanol futures declined. Spot prices in ports were weak, and inland prices continued to fall. The price range of Ordos North Line in the main production area was 1,785 - 1,798 yuan/ton, and the price range of Dongying in the downstream was 2,145 - 2,160 yuan/ton [10] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production increased to 2,061,085 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 92.26%, a 1.15% increase from the previous week [11] - **Downstream Demand**: As of February 5, the olefin开工率 increased, the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate remained flat, the acetic acid capacity utilization rate decreased, the chloride capacity utilization rate increased, and the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate decreased [15][17] - **Inventory**: As of February 4, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises decreased by 55,800 tons to 368,300 tons, a 13.16% decrease. The order backlog increased by 21,400 tons to 287,100 tons, an 8.05% increase. The port sample inventory decreased by 61,100 tons to 1.411 million tons, a 4.15% decrease [20][22] - **Profit**: Last week, the raw material side was stable and slightly stronger, and methanol prices fluctuated. The theoretical profits of different process routes for methanol production showed different trends [26] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, more methanol plants are expected to resume production than to undergo maintenance. The estimated methanol production is about 2.073 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 92.79%, an increase from last week [27] - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin开工率 is expected to continue to rise; the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate may decline; the acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly; the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate may decline; the chloride capacity utilization rate may increase slightly [30][31] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to slightly decrease to 365,500 tons. The port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate, and the accumulation range depends on the unloading speed of foreign vessels and the change in提货量 [31]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish, suggesting stable and multi - allocation [1] - Silver: Bearish, not recommended for participation [1] - Copper: Bullish in the long - term, suggesting long - term holding and short - term profit - taking [1][7] - Zinc: Neutral in the short - term, suggesting waiting for more macro guidance; bullish in the long - term, suggesting buying on dips [1][11] - Lead: Bearish, price under pressure [1] - Tin: Bearish, price rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Bearish, price rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Bearish, price rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Neutral, wide - range oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Bearish, price under pressure [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Neutral, waiting for stabilization [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Gold**: With the decline of US inflation expectations, the market sentiment has recovered after adjustment. In the long - term, due to the reshaping of the geopolitical order and central banks' continuous gold purchases, the long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged [1][3] - **Silver**: Although there are long - term supply - demand gaps and favorable factors from global fiscal policies, short - term market adjustments continue, and the risk - return ratio is not suitable for short - term participation [1] - **Copper**: In the short - term, approaching the Spring Festival, market risk - aversion sentiment rises, demand is weak in the traditional off - season, and high global copper inventories suppress the upside space. In the long - term, it is still optimistic due to copper's strategic position and green demand [1][6][7] - **Zinc**: In the short - term, speculation enthusiasm cools down, demand is weak approaching the Spring Festival, and inventories are accumulating. In the long - term, it is advisable to buy on dips due to potential supply challenges [1][10][11] - **Aluminum**: Overseas bauxite prices are under pressure, alumina costs are low, domestic inventories are accumulating, and downstream开工 rates are declining, so the price rebound is under pressure in the short - term [1][12][14] - **Nickel**: The expectation of supply contraction in Indonesia has been digested, domestic high inventories and weak consumption continue, and stainless steel inventories have rebounded slightly, so the price rebound is under pressure in the short - term [1][16][18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Total inventories have been decreasing for 4 consecutive weeks, production has declined. Market sentiment has been affected, and it is recommended to wait for stabilization before layout [1][20][21] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: After a significant adjustment, the prices of gold and silver rebounded on Friday, but market confidence has not been fully restored. Positions and narratives are in an unstable state [2] - **Influencing Factors**: US inflation expectations have declined, and the Chinese central bank has been continuously buying gold. The three pillars supporting the gold price (central bank purchases, de - dollarization, and global policy uncertainty) remain stable, but the market needs time to digest volatility [3] - **Strategy**: Domestic gold should be observed around 1060, and silver around 19000. Gold VIX and silver VIX are still at relatively high levels, and attention should be paid to volatility reduction [4] Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded. Global copper inventories are at a high level, and downstream demand is weak approaching the Spring Festival [5][6] - **Influencing Factors**: Global copper mines are in short supply, and the growth of copper smelting capacity has been curbed. The output in January increased slightly year - on - year, and is expected to decline slightly in February [6] - **Strategy**: In the short - term, it is recommended that long - position holders take profits on rallies and hold cash and be empty during the holiday. In the long - term, copper is still optimistic. Short - term Shanghai copper should focus on the range of 99500 - 104000 yuan/ton, and LME copper on 12500 - 13200 US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc is in a range - bound consolidation [9][10] - **Influencing Factors**: Global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026. Domestic zinc ingot output increased in January, and inventories are accumulating approaching the Spring Festival. Traditional demand is weak, but emerging demand may make up for part of the gap [10] - **Strategy**: In the short - term, it is recommended to reduce positions and control risks, waiting for more macro guidance. In the long - term, it is advisable to buy on dips. Shanghai zinc should focus on the range of 24000 - 25000 yuan/ton, and LME zinc on 3250 - 3300 US dollars/ton [11] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices rebounded under pressure, and alumina prices declined [12][13] - **Influencing Factors**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues in 2026. The electrolytic aluminum industry is profitable, but inventories are increasing, and downstream demand is weak. Overseas bauxite prices are under pressure, and alumina inventories are still under pressure [14][15] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits and wait and see in the short - term, paying attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot inventories. The main operating range is 22000 - 24500 yuan/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel prices rebounded under pressure [16][17] - **Influencing Factors**: Indonesia may reduce nickel ore production quotas in 2026. Domestic pure nickel inventories are accumulating, and downstream stainless steel inventories have rebounded slightly. The downstream is in a seasonal off - season [18] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits and wait and see, paying attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is 120000 - 140000 yuan/ton [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2605 opened low and went low, and recovered the 130,000 - yuan mark at the end of the session [20] - **Influencing Factors**: The external atmosphere of precious metals and non - ferrous metals is weak, and the market liquidity is insufficient. The fundamentals have no obvious negative factors, and the inventory is decreasing in the off - season. The market is worried about inventory accumulation in the peak season in March [21] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to be empty - position mainly, with the range of 130000 - 145000 yuan/ton [22]

2月9日，早盘伦敦现货 黄金再次站上5000美元/盎司。本周内盘为春节长假前最后一周，海外地缘局势 不确定性较高，资金或有退潮迹象，黄金交易需谨慎。地缘政治方面，海湾局势继续紧张，美伊阿曼谈 判并未达成有效共识，未来两国发生冲突的可能性仍然存在。目前，市场寄希望于地缘政治，但地缘政 治的反复性可能会增加对行情预判的难度。近期贵金属走势来看，波动率难以下降，但趋势仍然不明 了，建议节前谨慎操作，轻仓过节。 ...

2月9日，早盘伦敦现货黄金再次站上5000美元/盎司。本周内盘为春节长假前最后一周，海外地缘局势 不确定性较高，资金或有退潮迹象，黄金交易需谨慎。 宏观数据方面，本周美国将公布CPI和非农就业数据，恐引发黄金等贵金属波动。其他数据方面，美国 ISM1月服务业PMI指数为53.8，与12月持平，也持平于2024年10月以来的最高水平，好于市场预期，但 新订单指数有所放缓；美国1月ADP新增就业岗位2.2万个，远低于市场预期4.5万人，显现劳动力市场动 能减弱迹象；美国12月JOLTS职位空缺654.2万人，为2020年9月以来的最低水平，低于预期值725万人 和前值692.8万人。消息面，一向作为鸽派代表的美联储理事米兰表示今年需要降息不止100个基点，很 期待沃什接下来的表现；美国众议院通过了一项由该国总统特朗普与参议院民主党人协商达成的拨款协 议，美国政府的部分停摆有望结束。 地缘政治方面，海湾局势继续紧张，美伊阿曼谈判并未达成有效共识，未来两国发生冲突的可能性仍然 存在。 目前，市场寄希望于地缘政治，但地缘政治的反复性可能会增加对行情预判的难度。近期贵金属走势来 看，波动率难以下降，但趋势仍然不明了，建议 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:地缘局势扑朔迷离，国际油价宽幅波动 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给（中长期） | 中性 | （1）EIA：EIA继续小幅上调对2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2026年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,765万桶/日，较2025年上升139万桶/ | | | | 日。(2)OPEC:2025年12月份OPEC国家原油产量为2856.4万桶/日，较2025年11月份上升10.5万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1426.7万桶/日， | | | | 较2025年11月份下降34.3万桶/日。（3）IEA：2025年12月份OPEC国家原油产量为2882万桶/日，较2025年11月份下降34万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国 | | | | 家原油产量为1447万桶/日，较2025年11月份上升32万桶/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - LPG exhibits a game between sentiment and fundamentals, with PG oscillating before the holiday. In the short - term, the internal and external market logics are differentiated, and the PG price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is advisable to pay attention to geopolitical situations and opportunistically short at high levels [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Can - Chemical Product Closing Price Monitoring - The report presents the closing prices, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes of various can - chemical products, including exchange rates, precious metals, crude oil, and chemical products. For example, the current value of the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate is 6,959 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.03%, a weekly decrease of 0.13%, a monthly decrease of 0.77%, and an annual decrease of 2.95%. The current value of LPG is 4,258 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.04%, a weekly decrease of 0.75%, a monthly increase of 0.88%, and an annual decrease of 2.34% [3]. 3.2. LPG: Game between Sentiment and Fundamentals, PG Oscillates before the Holiday - **Supply**: It is bearish. Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about 548,800 tons. The civil gas commodity volume was 225,400 tons (-2.76%), the industrial gas was 191,700 tons (0.31%), and the ether - after carbon four was 179,800 tons (0.94%). The LPG arrival volume last week was 510,000 tons (2.63%). Domestic supply increased this week, but it is expected to decline next week [4]. - **Demand**: It is neutral. The winter heating demand is maintained, and the LPG combustion demand is gradually improving. However, the PDH device load will gradually decrease before the Spring Festival, and the propane chemical demand is expected to decline. The MTBE profit is in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending oil demand is slowing down, which restrains the civil gas price [4]. - **Inventory**: It is bullish. Last week, the LPG refinery inventory decreased by 1.73%, and the port inventory showed a trend of accumulating. Refineries successfully reduced inventory, while some ports withheld goods for sale [4]. - **Basis and Position**: It is neutral. The weekly average basis in East China, South China, and Shandong are 234.80 yuan/ton, 644.80 yuan/ton, and 261.80 yuan/ton respectively. The total LPG warehouse receipt volume increased by 6,902 lots [4]. - **Chemical Downstream**: It is bearish. The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation are 62.66%, 58.15%, and 36.54% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong are -374 yuan/ton, 142 yuan/ton, and 1 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Valuation**: It is bullish. The PG - SC ratio is 25 (0.41%), and the PG primary - secondary monthly spread is -303 yuan/ton (3.06%). The oil - gas cracking spread has a weakening trend [4]. - **Other Factors**: It is bullish. The US EIA oil and gas inventory continued to decline last week. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia - Ukraine regions are intensifying. The natural gas price has skyrocketed due to the cold wave, and the geopolitical situation has caused market panic [4]. 3.3. Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures oscillated and declined, with a price fluctuation range of 4,110 - 4,360 yuan/ton. International crude oil prices oscillated sharply and trended downward, and international LPG prices oscillated. Domestic supply and demand both decreased, and the spread between ether - after carbon four and civil gas was inverted [6]. 3.4. LPG Futures Price, Monthly Spread, and Cross - Month Spread Overview - **Futures Price**: The current values of PG01 - PG12 contracts are between 4,082 - 4,516 yuan/ton. Compared with last week, most contracts decreased, and compared with last month, most contracts increased [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The current values and changes of various monthly spreads are presented. For example, the PG01 - PG02 spread is -134 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 47.25% and a monthly decrease of 494.12% [11]. - **Cross - Month Spread**: The current values and changes of various cross - month spreads are also presented. For example, the PG01 - PG03 spread is -49 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 800.00% and a monthly decrease of 141.18% [11]. 3.5. Refinery Device Maintenance Plan - **Main Refineries**: Many refineries under Sinopec, PetroChina, Sinochem, and CNOOC have maintenance plans, with different maintenance times and capacities [13]. - **Local Refineries**: Some local refineries in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China also have maintenance plans, and some of the end times are undetermined [13]. 3.6. International Spot Price - The report shows the price trends of CP propane, CP butane, MB propane, MB butane, FEI propane, and FEI butane, as well as the spreads between them [16][27][30]. 3.7. Other Related Data - The report also presents data on LPG consumption, production, import and export, port inventory, refinery inventory, and deep - processing profits, etc., and shows their trends over time [135][150][174][195].

2026年02月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边震荡市，月差偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：区间震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：区间操作 | 2 | | 橡胶：宽幅震荡20260209 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:震荡承压 | 6 | | LLDPE：进口窗口缩窄，节前偏震荡市 | 8 | | PP：估值修复有限，出口周签单下滑 | 9 | | 烧碱：成本抬升，估值低位 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260209 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 14 | | 尿素：震荡有支撑 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：高位震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 19 | | LPG：地缘扰动仍存，基本面驱动向下 | 20 | | 丙烯：供需维持偏紧，上行驱动转弱 | 20 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 23 | | 燃料油：窄幅调整，短期弱势暂缓 | 24 | | 低硫燃料油：偏弱震荡，外盘现货高低硫价差继续下探 | 24 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市 | 25 | | 短纤：短期震荡市2026 ...

原油周报：高波动&宽震荡 研究员：赵若晨 期货从业证号：F03151390 投资咨询证号：Z0023496 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 | | | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 本周国际原油市场呈现高波动、宽幅震荡特征，主要受美伊地缘政治谈判反复主导，叠加宏观需求担忧与供应面 信号，油价整体先跌后反弹，但周线仍录得下跌，终结此前连续上涨势头。后期来看，地缘仍然是短期内交易重 点，美国-伊朗谈判短时间达成初步共识的可能性较小，后期来看，若谈判实质进展，风险溢价快速消退，油价易 进一步下探60-62美元区间；若局势再度紧张或破裂，价格可能快速上冲68-70美元上方，美国伊朗谈判的具体分 析，可关注《美伊百年恩怨与当下博弈——历史、谈判与全球能源风险全解析》专题报告。 【策略】 单边：宽幅震 ...