Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains tense, providing support for oil prices, but OPEC+ plans to increase production in November, and overseas economic data releases in early October will cause market fluctuations, so oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely [1][2]. - The supply of asphalt is expected to decrease during the National Day holiday, and the demand is also weak, but the cost side provides some support, so the asphalt price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and the cracking spread is expected to be bearish in the medium term [3][4]. - The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the high-sulfur fuel oil price is under pressure. The supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is also increasing, and the demand has no specific driving force, so the low-sulfur fuel oil price is also weak [6][7][8]. - The supply of PX is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the PX price is expected to decline. The supply of PTA is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is also weak, so the PTA price is expected to decline [9][10][11]. - The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the ethylene glycol price is expected to decline [12][13]. - The supply of short fiber is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the short fiber price is expected to decline [14][15]. - The supply of bottle chips is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the bottle chip price is expected to decline [16][17]. - The supply of pure benzene is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the pure benzene price is expected to decline. The supply of styrene is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the styrene price is expected to decline [17][18][19]. - The supply of propylene is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the propylene price is expected to decline [21]. - The supply of caustic soda is expected to increase, and the demand is weak in the short term but strong in the medium term, so the caustic soda price is expected to decline in the short term but increase in the medium term [22][23]. - The supply of PVC is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the PVC price is expected to decline [24][25]. - The supply of LLDPE and PP is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the LLDPE and PP prices are expected to decline [26][28]. - The supply of glass is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the glass price is expected to decline in the short term but increase in the medium term [28][30]. - The supply of soda ash is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the soda ash price is expected to decline [31][32][33]. - The supply of methanol is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the methanol price is expected to decline [35][36]. - The supply of urea is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the urea price is expected to decline [38][40]. - The supply of pulp is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the pulp price is expected to decline [43][44]. - The supply of offset printing paper is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the offset printing paper price is expected to decline [46][47]. - The supply of logs is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the log price is expected to decline [49][50]. - The supply of natural rubber and 20 rubber is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the natural rubber and 20 rubber prices are expected to decline [51][54]. - The supply of butadiene rubber is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the butadiene rubber price is expected to decline [56][58]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2511 contract settled at $63.18, down $2.01 or 3.08% from the previous day; Brent2511 contract settled at $67.65, down $2.1 or 3.01% from the previous day; SC2511 contract rose 3.5 to 492.6 yuan/barrel, and fell 14.2 to 480.3 yuan/barrel in the night session [1]. - **Related News**: Russia launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Kiev and other parts of Ukraine on Sunday, causing at least four deaths and dozens of injuries. As of the week ending September 21, diesel and diesel oil exports increased by 85% from the previous week to more than 1.2 million barrels per day, mainly from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. The facilities near the port were attacked by drones this week, temporarily affecting exports [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: The geopolitical situation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains tense, providing support for oil prices. As the National Day holiday in China approaches, there are many uncertainties in the geopolitical situation, and oil prices have an upward driving force. On the other hand, OPEC+ will announce its production increase plan for November on October 5, and the supply side will remain under high pressure. Overseas economic data will be released in early October, causing market fluctuations. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and investors need to pay attention to the risk of holding positions. In the short term, the intraday trading range of the Brent main contract is expected to be between $67.8 and $70 [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation; Arbitrage: Gasoline cracking is weak, and diesel cracking is weak; Options: Wait and see [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2511 closed at 3439 points (-0.43%) in the night session, and BU2512 closed at 3393 points (-0.53%) in the night session. On September 29, the spot price of asphalt in Shandong was stable at 3500 yuan/ton, the spot price in East China was stable at 3560 yuan/ton, and the spot price in South China was stable at 3510 yuan/ton [3]. - **Related News**: In the Shandong market, there was a small amount of rush - work demand before the holiday, which was beneficial to the sales of refineries and traders. In addition, some refineries stopped producing asphalt and consumed inventory, driving the total inventory level of refineries to decline slightly. In the Yangtze River Delta market, the market trading was relatively dull as the National Day holiday approached, and downstream users purchased on demand. In the South China market, the reduction of rainfall in the Guangdong and Guangxi regions drove the sales of refineries and social inventories, and the sales volume of Foshan warehouse increased compared with the previous period, which was beneficial to the increase of asphalt prices [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, the operating rate of domestic asphalt plants on Monday this week was 40.35%, down 9.53% from last Thursday. The total inventory level of refineries was 25.89%, down 1.22% from last Thursday, and the social inventory rate was 34.07%, down 1.24% from last Thursday. Oil prices are oscillating at a high level, and it is expected that there is limited upward space before the holiday, and the cost side provides limited support. The supply and demand of asphalt decreased compared with the previous period before the holiday, and the industry chain can still maintain de - stocking, and the spot price has certain support. There are many uncertainties overseas during the National Day holiday in China, and the situation between the United States and Venezuela will continue to disrupt the supply expectation of asphalt raw materials. In the short term, the asphalt price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the cracking spread is expected to be bearish in the medium term [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Range oscillation; Arbitrage: The spread between asphalt and crude oil oscillates weakly; Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [6]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: The FU01 contract closed at 2870 (-2.28%) in the night session, and the LU11 contract closed at 3399 (-2.38%) in the night session. In the Singapore paper market, the high - sulfur Oct/Nov spread was 4.8 to 2.8 US dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur Oct/Nov spread remained at - 0.5 US dollars/ton [6]. - **Related News**: A major oil port operator in Shandong, China, will take measures to ban shadow fleet vessels and restrict the access of other old oil tankers from November 1. On September 30, there were no transactions in the high - sulfur fuel oil 380, high - sulfur fuel oil 180, and low - sulfur fuel oil in the Singapore spot window [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Russian energy facilities have been attacked continuously, but the refineries and various transportation facilities have also returned from maintenance in a timely manner. The Primorsk port has resumed oil loading after being attacked last Friday, and large refineries such as Ryazan and Volgograd are also in the process of returning to normal. The high - sulfur exports in the Middle East have increased as the power generation demand has subsided, but Iran's exports are still restricted. Mexico's high - sulfur exports have continued to decline due to the commissioning of secondary devices in Olmeca and Tula. The summer power generation demand has completely subsided. Under the background of the decline of high - sulfur cracking and the low cost of tax reform, the feed demand support is still not obvious. The high - sulfur near - end inventory is still at a high level, suppressing the market price. The low - sulfur fuel oil spot window transaction price is at a low level, and the premium continues to decline. The low - sulfur supply continues to increase, and there is no specific driving force for downstream demand [7][8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillation; Arbitrage: Pay attention to the opportunity to widen the LU01 - FU01 spread; Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 [9]. PX & PTA - **Market Review**: The PX2511 main contract closed at 6336 (+10/+0.16%) in the day session and 6248 (-88/-1.39%) in the night session; the TA601 main contract closed at 4662 (+6/+0.13%) in the day session and 4580 (-72/-1.55%) in the night session. The PX price rebounded slightly yesterday, and the PX valuation was 817 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars from last Friday. One November Asian spot was traded at 816, and two December Asian spots were both traded at 816. In the PTA spot market, the negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis changed little [9][10]. - **Related News**: According to CCF statistics, the sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were highly differentiated yesterday, and the average sales volume was estimated to be 3 - 40% by around 3 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, and the average sales volume was 52% by around 3:00 pm [10]. - **Logic Analysis**: OPEC+ plans to increase oil production again in November, and the Kurdistan region of Iraq has resumed oil exports through Turkey, causing international oil prices to decline. In terms of PX supply, the 390,000 - ton PX plant of Tianjin Petrochemical is planned to restart recently. The maintenance of two 700,000 - ton PX plants of Shanghai Petrochemical and Jinling Petrochemical in the fourth quarter has been postponed to 2026. The short - process plants at home and abroad have increased their loads, and the PX operating rate remains at a high level. In the downstream PTA, the 4.5 - million - ton Fuhai Chuang plant restarted last weekend with a load of 50%. This week, the 1.25 - million - ton Ineos plant and the 1.2 - million - ton Zhongtai plant stopped production, and the 1.1 - million - ton Ineos plant and the 5 - million - ton Hengli Huizhou plant reduced their loads. Currently, the load of Hengli Huizhou has recovered. In October, the 1.1 - million - ton Sichuan Energy Investment and the PTA plant of Hengli Petrochemical Dalian are expected to be overhauled. In November, the 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant of Dushan Energy Phase I and the 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant of Honggang have overhaul plans, and the commissioning of the 3 - million - ton new plant of Dushan Energy has been postponed. The PTA operating rate is expected to increase slightly month - on - month in October. Recently, polyester filaments have carried out price promotions, the terminal operating rate has increased, and polyester sales have continued to be boosted. In the fourth quarter, the maintenance of some domestic PX plants has been postponed, and the operating rate is running at a relatively high level. PX is still in a tight balance, and the de - stocking amplitude is smaller than expected; the PTA processing fee valuation is low, the commissioning of new plants is delayed, the planned maintenance volume in October remains relatively high, the PX supply - demand margin is weakening, the PTA supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, and the inventory accumulation pressure is not large. The overall profit of the terminal is still poor. The supply - demand side provides limited driving force, and the price is greatly affected by the macro - level and the cost side [10][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: In the fourth quarter, the PX supply - demand margin is weakening, and the de - stocking amplitude is shrinking; the PTA supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, and the inventory accumulation pressure is not large; the terminal operating rate has increased, but the profit is poor. There is still inventory accumulation pressure on crude oil and PTA. It is recommended to short on rallies; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [11][12]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG2601 futures main contract closed at 4224 (+11/+0.26%) yesterday and 4185 (-39/-0.92%) in the night session. Currently, the spot basis is at a premium of 64 - 68 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and the negotiation price is 4289 - 4293 yuan/ton. In the afternoon, several next - week spot transactions were at a premium of 68 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The basis of the October futures is at a premium of 68 - 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and the negotiation price is around 4293 - 4295 yuan/ton [12]. - **Related News**: According to CCF, the inventory of MEG ports in the main port area of East China was about 409,000 tons yesterday, down 58,000 tons from the previous period. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were highly differentiated yesterday, and the average sales volume was estimated to be 3 - 40% by around 3 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, and the average sales volume was 52% by around 3:00 pm [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: In terms of supply, the 400,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant of Fuzhou Refining is planned to stop for maintenance for about two weeks in October. The 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant of Shanxi Meijin is planned to stop for maintenance from September 25, and it is expected to restart in mid - October. From the end of September to early October, the 900,000 - ton satellite petrochemical and the 260,000 - ton Jianyuan ethylene glycol maintenance plants are expected to restart, and the 400,000 - ton MEG of Shenhua Yulin is expected to increase its load. The Tongliao Jinmei and Henan Yongcheng plants have maintenance plans. The 900,000 - ton/year new ethylene glycol plant of Shandong Yulong Petrochemical is planned to start trial production around the end of this month, and the ethylene glycol supply is expected to increase. Overseas, a 750,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Malaysia stopped production due to technical reasons this week, and the restart time is undetermined. During the National Day holiday, the arrival of overseas ships is relatively concentrated, and the market's willingness to sell has increased. Downstream orders are less than the same period last year, the ethylene glycol supply - demand is expected to become looser, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the future [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillation weakly; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell call options [14]. Short Fiber - **Market Review**: The PF2511 main contract closed at 6336 (+10/+0.16%) in the day session and 6248 (-88/-1.39%) in the night session. The prices of direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained stable, and the mainstream negotiation price of semi - bright 1.4D was 6350 - 6

中美贸易博弈再现新动向：一场甩锅与拆招的外交较量 近日，美国财长贝森特在西班牙马德里会谈后的一番表态引发广泛关注。这位财政高官表示，美国可以考虑不对中国加征针对俄罗斯石油的高额关税，但前 提条件是欧洲国家必须先对中国和印度采取行动。这番看似让步的表态，实则暗藏玄机。 表面上看，美国似乎放软了姿态，但细究之下，这个条件堪称苛刻。美国这是要把欧洲推到前面当挡箭牌，自己则躲在后面观望。相比之下，中方的回应虽 然简洁，却直指问题核心，强调互利共赢原则，反对将经贸问题政治化，展现出成熟稳健的外交智慧。 这场博弈的源头要追溯到2025年9月12日。当时美国通过G7和欧盟渠道，呼吁盟友对中国和印度进口的俄罗斯石油加征50%至100%的高关税。美方的如意算 盘是通过切断俄罗斯的石油收入，迫使普京在乌克兰问题上让步。 但现实情况让特朗普政府颇为尴尬。尽管西方对俄实施制裁，俄罗斯石油出口却未受太大影响，中国和印度成为最大买家，每天进口量高达上百万桶。这些 石油收入源源不断地流入俄罗斯的战争金库，成为其军事行动的重要支撑。 9月15日，贝森特在马德里会谈后的记者会上明确表示，美国不会单独行动，必须等欧洲先出手。这番表态看似给中国留 ...

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 9 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 降息开启，地缘政治加剧，中长线 上行趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2511 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松背景下，矿端扰动再起， 资金关注度快速上升 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：节前黄金白银加速上 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating for the Industry - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - OPEC+ may continue to increase production, which could drag down oil prices. The ethylene glycol port inventory is at a five - year low, and a positive spread trading strategy is recommended. For loss - making varieties with low inventory pressure, a positive spread trading strategy can be held during the holiday, and it is not advisable to hold large - position unilateral positions. If holding positions, polyolefins with continuously innovative high production are preferred. The energy and chemical sector still oscillates with crude oil as the anchor. A light - position short - selling can be tried on pre - holiday rebounds, and low - inventory products can be intervened through positive spread trading [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Outlook - The energy and chemical market is expected to continue to oscillate with crude oil as the anchor. Pre - holiday rebounds can be short - sold with a light position, and low - inventory products can be traded through positive spreads [3] 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - Geopolitical disturbances are frequent. The end of the Israel - Hamas conflict is optimistic, but the actual supply of crude oil has not been affected. The later focus of the geopolitical end is still on the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Iran nuclear issue. Under the background of OPEC+ accelerating production increase, crude oil will face the double pressure of the peak and decline of refinery start - up and OPEC+ accelerating production increase. The short - term view is oscillatory, and risk control should be noted during the holiday [9][10] Asphalt - It follows the oscillation of crude oil and continues to compress profits. The October asphalt production plan increases by 19% year - on - year, and the supply tension problem is greatly alleviated. The high premium of asphalt is expected to decline, and the price difference between months is expected to fall with the increase of warehouse receipts [11] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical disturbances drive the oscillatory price of fuel oil. The export of Russian fuel oil reached a record high in September, but geopolitical disturbances may cause the export expectation to decline significantly. The demand expectation has improved, but the support drivers are unstable. Geopolitical escalation's impact on price is short - term, and the change of the Russia - Ukraine situation should be concerned [11] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - It follows the oscillation of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The supply is expected to increase and the demand to decline, and it is expected to run at a low valuation and follow the fluctuation of crude oil [13] Methanol - The external procurement of olefins in the inland continues, and the methanol futures price oscillates. The inventory pressure in the inland is limited, but the near - month port inventory pressure is still large. Some funds may still bargain - hunt at low prices. Low - long opportunities can be concerned from September to October [26] Urea - Pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the futures price is under pressure under the loose supply - demand situation. The current winter storage and export expectations are not good, and it is expected to be weakly sorted out [27] Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory hits a new low again, and the pattern of near - strong and far - weak continues. Although there is an expectation of a stocking inflection point in the port, the short - term price decline stops slightly, but the rebound height is limited, and interval operation is recommended [20] PX - There is cost support, but the supply - demand expectation weakens, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream naphtha is relatively strong, and the supply is at a high level. The short - term price oscillates within the interval, and the change of downstream PTA devices should be concerned [14] PTA - As the holiday approaches, the negotiation is light. The upstream cost has certain support, but the downstream negotiation is light. The price follows the cost to oscillate and sort out, and attention should be paid to the TA01 - 05 reverse spread [15] Short - Fiber - Downstream pre - holiday replenishment is mostly completed. The cost is weak, and the market lacks a clear direction. The short - fiber price is expected to maintain a bottom - interval oscillation [22] Bottle Chip - The driving force is limited, and it follows the upstream fluctuation. The upstream polyester raw materials oscillate, and the support for the bottle chip price weakens. The supply - demand side has no obvious change, and the short - term price oscillates within the interval [23] PP - Before the holiday, both long and short sides are cautious. It has fallen below the June low, and there is a slight rebound near the previous low. The supply side is still in an incremental state, and the upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure still exists. The short - term view is oscillatory [30] Propylene - It follows the fluctuation of PP, and PL oscillates in the short term. The market sentiment is slightly boosted, but the expectation for the future is still bearish, and the operation is cautious [31] Plastic - Before the holiday, both long and short sides are cautious. The short - term price decline has led to an increase in downstream transactions. Although the downstream start - up improvement is slow, there is still some demand support. The supply side still has certain pressure, and the short - term view is oscillatory [29] Pure Benzene - The pre - holiday wait - and - see sentiment is obvious, and it oscillates weakly. The downstream pre - holiday stocking makes the structure of pure benzene stronger, but according to the current maintenance and production - start plans, it will be in a state of oversupply by the end of the year, especially with large import pressure in October [16][18] Styrene - Before the holiday, there is a wait - and - see sentiment and port stocking. The cost - side support gradually appears, the domestic production supply decreases, and the downstream demand is good, but the port inventory has a continuous stocking expectation. The profit is at a low level, and an attempt can be made to widen the profit, with a rebound - shorting idea [18][19] PVC - The market sentiment cools down, and it oscillates. The macro - level policy has been implemented, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The fundamentals are under pressure, but the disk valuation is low, and the decline space is limited [32] Caustic Soda - There is a strong expectation but weak reality, and the disk oscillates. The fundamentals are still under pressure, but the demand expectation is good. The short - term spot decline slows down, and attention should be paid to whether upstream production reduction occurs due to low profit after the holiday and the procurement process of non - aluminum and alumina [32] 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on inter - period price differences, basis, and inter - variety price differences of various energy and chemical varieties, including Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. These data can help investors understand the price relationship and market trends of different varieties [34][35][36] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [37][50][62] 4. Commodity Index - On September 29, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all showed a decline. The energy index increased by 0.19% on the day, 3.99% in the past 5 days, 1.93% in the past month, and decreased by 0.07% since the beginning of the year [278][280]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On September 29, the container shipping index (European Line) fluctuated weakly. The main 2510 contract closed at 1115.0 points, down 3.11%, with a reduction of 3117 lots. The second - main 2512 contract closed at 1756.3 points, down 1.36%, with a reduction of 1012 lots. The probability of the price increase implementation is low due to the uncertain loading rate of the PA Alliance. Attention should be paid to whether msk adjusts the price in the two trading days of this week, and other shipping companies may adjust the freight rates for late October after the holiday [10]. - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the number of blank sailings in September decreased by 1 to 6. The weekly average capacity in September remained at 296,000 TEU/week. The weekly average capacity in October was slightly revised down to 265,000 TEU/week, and that in November was 308,000 TEU/week. The weekly average capacity in November increased by 9.4% year - on - year and 16.1% month - on - month [11]. - In terms of macro and geopolitics, Trump announced a 20 - point plan to end the Israel - Hamas conflict. Netanyahu agreed to the plan, but the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (Jihad) regarded it as a fuse to detonate the regional situation. China's counter - measures may affect the operation of Matson (US) shipping company and increase the complexity of the US line competition pattern, with limited impact on the European line [12]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: EC2510 closed at 1115.0, down 3.11%, with a trading volume of 16,679 and an open interest of 29,314, a decrease of 3,117. EC2512 closed at 1,756.3, down 1.36%, with a trading volume of 11,879 and an open interest of 20,683, a decrease of 1,012. EC2602 closed at 1,667.0, down 1.47%, with a trading volume of 4,011 and an open interest of 8,852, an increase of 84 [1]. - **Freight Index**: The SCFIS for the European route was 1,254.92, down 12.9% week - on - week; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1,193.64, down 11.6% week - on - week. The SCFI for the European route was 971 $/TEU, down 7.7% bi - weekly; the SCFI for the US West route was 1,460 $/FEU, down 10.8% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: Different shipping companies' spot freight rates for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route varied. For example, Maersk's price for a 40'GP was 1820 $/40'GP, and MSC's was 1515 $/40'GP [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 97.95, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.11 [1]. 2. Macro News - Trump announced a 20 - point plan to end the Israel - Hamas conflict. Netanyahu agreed, but Jihad regarded it as a plan of aggression, and it was predicted that Hamas would reject it [8][12]. - China announced counter - measures, including charging special fees on ships from certain countries and regions, and restricting their entry and exit from Chinese ports, which may affect the operation of Matson (US) shipping company [9][12]. 3. Shipping Company Pricing Strategies - **Gemini Alliance**: Maersk's opening price for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in the 42nd week was 1800 $/FEU (some voyages were 1870 $/FEU), up 400 $/FEU from the 40th - 41st weeks. HPL - SPOT was 1400 $/FEU in the first half of October, and it planned to increase to 2000 $/FEU in the second half of October and 2500 $/FEU in early November [14]. - **OA Alliance**: OOCL and COSCO dropped to 1400 - 1500 $/FEU in the first half of October. OOCL planned to increase to 2000 $/FEU in the second half of October, and COSCO's announced increase level was revised to 2000 $/FEU. Evergreen maintained 1610 $/FEU online, and updated to 1400 - 1500 $/FEU for the early - October sailings offline. CMA was 1620 $/FEU in the first half of October and planned to increase to 2220 $/FEU in late October [14]. - **PA Alliance**: Yang Ming decreased to 1250 $/FEU since September 29. ONE decreased to 1300 $/FEU since September 25. HMM was 1506 $/FEU online and around 1400 $/FEU offline, with the lowest price in the Shanghai area around 1200 $/FEU. ONE and HMM announced price increases for the second half of October, reporting 2035 and 2002 $/FEU respectively [14]. - **MSC**: It decreased to 1390 $/FEU from September 29 to October 14, with a SPOT price of 1240 $/FEU, and planned to increase to 2240 $/FEU in the second half of October, with the SPOT price increasing to 2040 $/FEU [14]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European Line) was 0, indicating a neutral trend [15].

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 尽管 PCE 不支持大幅降息，但是美政府关门等风险和联储官员鸽派表态提供支撑。 | | ★★ | 长期持有 | 降息落地但资金情绪不止，短期沪金 840 支撑。中长期黄金支撑逻辑不变，降息周 | | | | 期开启，地缘重塑，央行买黄金，黄金战略配置价值不变。长单持仓过节 | | 白银 | | 白银跟随黄金波动，但同时也受到铜等其他金属情绪的支撑。全球政策刺激明显， | | | 轻仓过节 | 白银需求坚挺，供供需缺口明显，白银长期看多逻辑不变。黄金等品种波动会白银 | | ★★ | | 盘面波动有冲击。短线轻仓过节，长线长期持有 | | | | 印尼矿难利多充分被市场消化，美宏观数据超预期削弱 10 月降息预期，国庆假期在 | | 铜 | 长期持有 | 即，建议铜短期投机多单移动止盈兑现，准备空仓或轻仓过节，产业卖出套保积极 | | ★ | | 布局，锁定合理利润。中长期，对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 宏观和板块情绪冲高回落，锌重新回归弱现实，国庆假期在即，建议沪锌 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper prices rose significantly, with the main Shanghai copper contract up 3.2%, closing at 82,470 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and force majeure at an Indonesian copper mine stimulated the price increase. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. In the industrial sector, spot trading is mainly for刚需, and copper inventories have decreased. [4] - The copper market will be in tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025. [12] 3) Summary by Directory a) Market Review - Last week, the main Shanghai copper contract rose 3.2% to 82,470 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and an Indonesian copper mine's force majeure stimulated the price increase. Domestically, downstream consumption willingness is average, and spot trading is mainly for刚需. LME copper inventories were 144,400 tons, slightly decreasing, and SHFE copper inventories decreased by 7,035 tons to 98,779 tons. [4] b) Fundamentals - **PMI**: No detailed data provided. [10] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The copper market will be in tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024. [12][15] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories are decreasing, and bonded area inventories remain low. [16][19] c) Market Structure - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees are at a low level. [22] - **CFTC Position**: Non - commercial net long positions in CFTC are flowing out. [24] - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No detailed data provided. [27] - **Import Profit**: No detailed data provided. [30] - **Warehouse Receipts**: No detailed data provided.

Core Points - China has significantly increased its rare earth magnet exports to the EU while reducing exports to the US, highlighting the EU's dependency on Chinese supplies in critical industries [1][3] - The EU is facing production disruptions due to China's export controls, with multiple industries experiencing interruptions in August [3][6] - Ursula von der Leyen's refusal to impose tariffs on China and India as per Trump's demands indicates a strategic decision to protect EU economic interests [4][6] Group 1 - China's rare earth magnet exports to the EU reached 2,582 tons in August, a 21% increase from July, while exports to the US decreased by 5% to 590 tons [1] - The EU's reliance on Chinese rare earths spans various sectors, including automotive, wind energy, and electronics, making it vulnerable to supply shortages [1][3] - Von der Leyen's statement reflects the EU's intent to maintain economic autonomy and avoid being drawn into US geopolitical strategies [4][8] Group 2 - The EU has faced production interruptions due to China's export restrictions, with reports of seven production halts in August and expectations of more in September [3][6] - Von der Leyen emphasized that tariff policies must be decided independently by the EU, despite external pressures from the US [4][6] - The EU's economic ties with China are increasingly critical, particularly for Germany's automotive industry, which relies heavily on rare earths for electric vehicle components [6][8]

Core Points - The European Union (EU) is moving towards a more aggressive stance against Russia, aiming to ban imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia by 2027 under pressure from the United States [1] - The EU Commission has proposed a new round of sanctions that includes unprecedented measures targeting various sectors, including energy, finance, and technology, with a focus on energy [1][2] - The sanctions will also affect Chinese entities, with around 12 Chinese firms potentially facing restrictions on trade with EU companies [5] Energy Sector - The proposed sanctions include a complete ban on importing Russian LNG and a reduction of the price cap on Russian crude oil to $47.6 per barrel [1] - The EU plans to impose sanctions on 118 vessels of Russia's "shadow fleet," increasing the total number of sanctioned Russian ships to over 560 [2] Financial and Technological Measures - The sanctions will expand the trading ban on Russian banks within Russia and third countries, and for the first time, will include restrictions on cryptocurrency platforms to prevent sanction evasion [2] - New direct export restrictions on military goods and technology are also proposed, with 45 Russian and third-country companies set to be added to the sanctions list [2] Impact on Chinese Entities - The EU has prepared a sanctions list that includes approximately 12 Chinese entities, which would prohibit EU companies from engaging in any business with them [5] - Two Chinese petrochemical companies are also facing a complete trading ban with EU companies regarding oil and gas [5] Internal EU Disagreements - There are significant divisions within the EU regarding the sanctions, particularly from Hungary, which opposes the early cessation of Russian fossil fuel imports due to concerns over national energy security [6] - The approval of the sanctions requires unanimous consent from all 27 EU member states, and Hungary's energy security concerns may pose a significant obstacle [6]

国金证券近日发布石油化工行业研究：乌克兰对俄罗斯石油设施的袭击，特朗普施压土 耳其及匈牙利停止购买俄油以及以色列表态不会允许伊朗恢复核能力是市场的主要关注点。 乌克兰无人机袭击新罗西斯克，图阿普谢两座港口。两处转运点合计出口原油200万桶/天。 供应端伊拉克库尔德地区对土耳其的原油管道重启，出口将恢复至18-19万桶/天。 以下为研究报告摘要： 本周行情综述 原油：本周地缘冲突成为推动油价上涨的主要因素。乌克兰对俄罗斯石油设施的袭击， 特朗普施压土耳其及匈牙利停止购买俄油以及以色列表态不会允许伊朗恢复核能力是市场的 主要关注点。乌克兰无人机袭击新罗西斯克，图阿普谢两座港口。两处转运点合计出口原油 200万桶/天。供应端伊拉克库尔德地区对土耳其的原油管道重启，出口将恢复至18-19万桶/ 天。短期布伦特净多持仓跌至低位后，由于不缺乏地缘题材原油价格止跌反弹。地缘仍是短 期决定原油价格走势的主要因素，中期看供需偏弱仍是主要矛盾。后续需关注乌克兰袭击对 俄罗斯出口设施的实际影响及10月5日的OPEC会议决定。截止9月25日，WTI现货收于64.98 美元，环比+1.41美元；BRENT现货收于70.59美元，环比+ ...