1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Despite concerns about demand uncertainty due to macro and geopolitical factors, the strong reality of copper is increasingly strengthening. There is a potential pattern of buying on dips. In the short - term, it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the absence of effective resonance between macro and micro factors, with a focus on the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina shows a tendency of fluctuating upward. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a game between weakening marginal demand and low ingot - casting volume and low - warehouse - receipt squeezing effects. For waste aluminum, there is still cost support, and continuous attention should be paid to the opportunity of rolling to do long on the AD - AL spread [1][2]. - Nickel: In the short - term, the firm raw material prices provide support, but the market lacks confidence. Mid - term demand may still restrict the fundamentals to be bearish. Attention should be paid to the premium of nickel ore and the inventory of primary nickel, as well as the changes in overseas policies [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose 0.65% to $9,727/ton, and SHFE copper rose 0.36% to 78,720 yuan/ton. The import of refined copper and scrap copper in China decreased, and the export window opened. The LME inventory dropped to below 100,000 tons, and the market was worried about extreme market conditions [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina fluctuated strongly, with AO2509 closing at 2,937 yuan/ton, up 1.07%. The spot price of alumina declined. The electrolytic aluminum market faced a game between demand and supply - side factors [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 1.14% to $15,075/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 1.19% to 119,490 yuan/ton. The stainless - steel market was in an oversupply state, and the supply and demand of nickel sulfate were both weak [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased, and the price of waste copper also rose. The LME inventory decreased by 1,200 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 955 tons [1][3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 180 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate price rose, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,125 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai changed slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 1,620 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased. The LME inventory increased by 432 tons, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased by 222 tons [2][4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price rose slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 575 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.26 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.4%. The LME inventory decreased by 25 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 142 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The document shows the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: It presents the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][22][23]. - **LME Inventory**: The LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are demonstrated [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: The SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are shown [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: It includes the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: The document shows the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - **展大鹏**: A master of science, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience [50]. - **王珩**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [50]. - **朱希**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur crack spread fluctuated, with crude oil prices rising significantly. High-sulfur fuel oil, with a large proportion of Iranian supply, performed well in terms of oil product profits. The 380-month spread fluctuated, with the August - September spread at $7.5, and the basis also fluctuated. The domestic FU showed a differentiation between near and far months, with the July contract dropping to around -$7 (it is expected that there will be a large amount of delivery goods), and the September contract fluctuating at around $8. The 0.5 crack spread in Singapore declined, and the month spread fluctuated. This week, onshore inventories in Singapore decreased, high-sulfur floating storage inventories increased, low-sulfur floating storage inventories increased, ARA inventories decreased, floating storage inventories fluctuated, and US inventories decreased. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month-on-month, remaining at a moderately high level compared to the same period, while Russia's shipments were neutral. Iran and Iraq account for about 15% - 20% of Singapore's high-sulfur imports, mainly affecting some bunkering and refinery feedstock in the Asia-Pacific region and cannot be used for physical delivery on the futures market. It is expected that Iran's shipments will decline in the future, mainly due to the impact of US sanctions. If the risk events in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, the impact magnitude will increase. Recently, high-sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak power generation season, with the overseas market performing strongly. The domestic FU near-month contracts are under pressure, with relatively low valuations, and the market game continues. For the far-month contracts, attention should be paid to the impact of supply disruptions. The domestic and overseas valuations of LU are relatively high. [4][5] Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From June 19 to June 25, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, and other related products changed. For example, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased from $481.08 to $414.85, with a change of $1.34. [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - During the same period, the prices of Singapore 380cst M1, Singapore 180cst M1, and other related products also changed. For instance, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased from $480.47 to $420.87, with a change of -$7.03. [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From June 19 to June 25, 2025, the FOB prices of Singapore 380cst and FOB VLSFO changed. The FOB 380cst price decreased from $485.32 to $424.16, with a change of -$7.46. [3] Domestic FU Data - The prices of domestic FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 contracts changed. For example, the FU 01 contract price decreased from 3154 to 2874, with a change of -21. [3] Domestic LU Data - The prices of domestic LU 01, LU 05, and LU 09 contracts changed. The LU 01 contract price increased from 3787 to 3508, with a change of 8. [4]

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market shows mixed trends across different sectors. The stock index market has a positive performance, with most indices rising. The bond market is expected to be volatile, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. The commodity market, including metals, energy, and agricultural products, also has various trends influenced by factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. [2][7] - It is recommended to take different trading strategies according to different market conditions, such as buying certain stock index futures on dips, and being cautious in the commodity market with a focus on specific opportunities and risks. [4][5] Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw most indices rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.04%, the ChiNext Index up 3.11%, etc. The trading volume increased by 188.2 billion yuan. The overseas geopolitical risk has cooled down, and domestic policies are expected to support the economy. It is recommended to buy IH or IF futures on dips and consider IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity". [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: On Wednesday, most treasury bond futures had a slight decline. The economic data shows some disturbances and structural differentiation. The central bank's liquidity injection maintains a loose attitude, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. [6][7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose. The market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased, and the change in the bank regulatory bill is beneficial to silver. It is recommended to buy silver on dips. [8][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillated and rebounded. The overseas geopolitical situation has eased, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut suppresses the sentiment. The copper raw material market is tight, and the low inventory may support the price to rise, but the weakening domestic consumption limits the upside. The price is expected to oscillate and rise, and attention should be paid to the import loss for arbitrage. [12] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price oscillated. The cost - driving force has weakened, and the demand expectation has improved. The low inventory may push the price up, but the price increase and the off - season effect limit the upside. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [13] - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose slightly. The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots, with a high expectation of zinc ingot output. However, some factors affect the inventory and production, and the geopolitical situation may affect the zinc ore export. [15] - **Lead**: The lead price rose. The lead acid battery export growth has slowed down, and the downstream consumption is weak. But the high - concentration long - position in the LME lead July contract and the reduction of domestic inventory make the price run relatively strongly, with limited upside for Shanghai lead. [16] - **Nickel**: The nickel price rebounded slightly. The cost of downstream iron plants is under pressure, and the nickel ore price may fall. The nickel iron price is also under pressure, and the refined nickel supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, with a risk of price decline. [17] - **Tin**: The tin price fell slightly. The supply of tin ore is short - term tight, but the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate in a certain range. [18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated slightly. The marginal variables in supply, demand, and cost are limited, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. [19] - **Alumina**: The alumina price rose slightly. The alumina production capacity is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short on rallies. [20] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price rose slightly. The market supply exceeds demand, and the demand is weak. The planned production cut by steel mills eases the supply - demand contradiction, but the price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. [21][23] Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The steel price oscillated. The real estate demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The terminal demand is weakening, and the market confidence is low. Attention should be paid to policy trends, demand repair, and cost support. [25][26] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was slightly down. The supply has increased, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is in a low - volatility state with support from iron production and pressure from supply. [27][28] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price is expected to be weakly volatile due to the lack of real - estate demand boost. The soda ash supply is expected to be loose, and the price is also expected to be weakly volatile. [29] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. They are still in a downward trend, and the fundamentals point to a downward price. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and attention should be paid to price fluctuations caused by market sentiment. [30][31][33] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price rebounded. The supply is in an oversupply situation, and the demand is weak. The price may continue to decline, and it is not recommended to buy on dips. [35][36][37] Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The rubber price oscillated. The bulls expect a price increase due to potential production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. The tire开工率 is rising, and it is recommended to take a neutral approach and focus on short - term operations. [39][40][43] - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell slightly. The geopolitical risk has been released, and the price is in a reasonable range. It is not recommended to short further. [44][45][46] - **Methanol**: The methanol price rose. The market is expected to return to the supply - demand fundamentals, with high domestic supply and potential weakening demand. It is recommended to wait and see. [47] - **Urea**: The urea price rose. The supply is high, and the demand is relatively weak. The price is expected to have no clear trend in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. [48] - **Styrene**: The styrene price is expected to be oscillated and bearish. The cost is relatively stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. [49] - **PVC**: The PVC price rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline steadily under the background of geopolitical easing. [51][52] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. The inventory is accumulating, and it is recommended to short on rallies with caution. [53] - **PTA**: The PTA price rose. The supply is expected to increase after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long following PX. [54] - **Para - xylene**: The PX price fell. The supply and demand are in a dynamic balance, and the price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long following the decline. [55][56] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The PE price rose slightly. The supply pressure may ease, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate. [57] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The PP price rose slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The price is expected to be bearish in June. [58] Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The hog price showed mixed trends. The northern region may raise prices, while the southern region has stable supply. It is recommended to go long on near - term contracts at low prices and short on long - term contracts at high prices. [60] - **Eggs**: The egg price mostly fell. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is average. The price is expected to be mostly stable with a few slight declines. It is recommended to short on rallies. [61] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices fell. The domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing, and the supply is relatively sufficient. It is recommended to go long at the low - end of the cost range and pay attention to supply pressure at the high - end. [62][63] - **Oils and Fats**: The oil and fat prices oscillated. The Brazilian biodiesel policy is beneficial, but there are still some negative factors. The price is expected to oscillate. [64][65][66] - **Sugar**: The sugar price rebounded. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to change, and the import profit window is open. The sugar price is expected to decline steadily. [67] - **Cotton**: The cotton price rose. The market is in the off - season, and the high basis affects consumption. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [68]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market shows a complex situation with supply increasing, demand remaining sluggish, and cost support weakening. The 2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 7465 - 7645 [6]. - The polysilicon market has continuous supply increase and declining demand, with overall demand in a state of continuous recession. The 2508 contract is expected to oscillate between 30195 - 31055 [8]. - The main logic for the market is the supply - demand mismatch caused by capacity imbalance, making the downward trend difficult to change. The main influencing factors include cost increases, slow post - holiday demand recovery, and the supply - demand situation of downstream polysilicon [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoint Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply was 81,000 tons, a 2.53% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand was 71,000 tons, a 13.41% week - on - week decrease. Downstream industries such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy all have high inventory levels [6]. - **Cost**: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - blown 553 is 3972 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - **Basis**: On June 25, the spot price of non - oxygen - blown silicon in East China was 8100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 545 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 2.27% week - on - week, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 4.32%, and main port inventory decreased by 1.50% [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 of the 09 contract is upward, and the futures price is above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling is increasing, demand recovery is emerging, and cost support is rising. The 2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 7465 - 7645 [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the output was 24,500 tons, a 2.94% week - on - week increase. The scheduled output for June is expected to be 98,800 tons, a 2.80% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 12.9 GW, a 1.52% week - on - week decrease. The inventory decreased by 3.10%. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components shows a downward trend in different degrees [8]. - **Cost**: The average production cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 34,520 yuan/ton, and the production income is - 20 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On June 25, the price of N - type polysilicon was 34,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 08 contract was 3875 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 262,000 tons, a 4.72% week - on - week decrease, remaining at a high level in the same period of history [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 of the 08 contract is downward, and the futures price is below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position is increasing [8]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling continues to increase, demand in various downstream sectors continues to decline, and cost support remains stable. The 2508 contract is expected to oscillate between 30195 - 31055 [8]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Industrial Silicon Market Data**: The report provides detailed data on the prices, basis, inventory, production, and cost of different contracts of industrial silicon, as well as the production, inventory, and profit data of downstream industries such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [15]. - **Polysilicon Market Data**: It includes data on the prices, basis, inventory, production, and cost of polysilicon, as well as the production, inventory, and profit data of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market supply is expected to remain stable, with the cross - month spread narrowing to the lowest level since January. The expected increase in high - sulfur fuel oil demand during the Middle - East summer peak has not had a substantial impact on supply. The market is currently neutral [3]. - The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is a bullish signal. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased in the week of June 18, also a bullish factor. The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is trending upward, which is bullish. However, the main positions in both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are short, and the short positions are increasing, which is bearish [3]. - With the significant decline in crude oil prices and the upcoming negotiation between Iran and Israel, the fuel oil market is under pressure. It is expected to trade in a low - level range in the short term. The FU2509 is expected to trade between 2980 - 3030, and the LU2508 between 3680 - 3740 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Asian high - sulfur fuel oil supply is stable, demand is moderate, and the cross - month spread is narrowing. The expected demand increase in the Middle - East has not changed the supply situation [3]. - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil basis is 158 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur is 78 yuan/ton, with spot premiums over futures [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of June 18 was 2289.9 million barrels, a decrease of 22 million barrels [3][8]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is trending upward [3]. - **Main Positions**: High - sulfur and low - sulfur main positions are short, and short positions are increasing [3]. - **Expectation**: Crude oil prices are falling, and the negotiation between Iran and Israel restricts the upside of fuel oil. Short - term low - level range - bound trading is expected [3]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Deterioration of the Middle - East situation and the expected increase in summer power - generation demand [4]. - **Bearish Factors**: The optimistic demand outlook needs to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxed sanctions on Russia [4]. - **Market Drivers**: The supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The previous FU main - contract futures price was 3206, and the current price is 3020, a decrease of 186 (5.80%). The previous LU main - contract futures price was 3825, and the current price is 3686, a decrease of 139 (3.63%) [5]. - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil basis is 158 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur is 78 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore fuel oil inventory data from April 9 to June 18 shows fluctuations, with a decrease of 22 million barrels in the week of June 18 [8]. 3.4 Spread Data The report presents a graph of the high - low sulfur futures spread from 2021 - 09 - 07 to 2025 - 06 - 07, but no specific numerical analysis of the spread is provided [13]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from April 9 to June 18 shows that the inventory on June 18 was 2289.9 million barrels, a decrease of 22 million barrels compared to the previous week [8].

能源化工日报 2025-06-26 2025/06/26 原油早评： 能源化工组 甲醇 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 2025/06/26 甲醇早评： 甲醇 6 月 25 日 09 合约涨 12 元/吨，报 2391 元/吨，现货涨 10 元/ 吨，基差+259。地缘局势降温，原油大跌，甲醇盘面跌近 5%，外围风险逐步消散，后续预计价 格波动率将逐步回落，市场逐步回归自身供需基本面。近期甲醇的上涨使得其估值大幅抬升， 下游利润被大幅压缩，受海外因素影响，预计国内 8 月份进口相对有限，09 合约前港口难以大 幅累库，盘面基差维持强势。总体来看，国内供应维持高位，需求短期尚可，后续需求仍有走 弱风险，整体矛盾有限，单边参与难度较大，建议观望为主。 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收跌 0.07 美元，跌幅 0.11%，报 64.94 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收跌 0.21 美元，跌幅 0.31%，报 67.61 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 5.20 元，跌幅 1.00%， 报 515.7 元。 ...

| CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY | | 2025/6/25 | 元/吨 | 9200.00 | 9200.00 | 0.00% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY | | 2025/6/25 | 元/吨 | 7450.00 | 7500.00 | -0.67% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D | | 2025/6/25 | 元/吨 | 7450.00 | 7450.00 | 0.00% | | 下 | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D 游 | 2025/6/25 | 元/吨 | 7450.00 | 7450.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 | | 2025/6/25 | 元/吨 | 6785.00 | 6820.00 | -0.51% | | CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 | | 2025/6/25 | 元/吨 | 5935.00 | 5950.00 | -0.25% | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 | | 2025/6/25 | 元/吨 | 6060.00 | ...

贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/25 价 格 表 现 品种 伦敦金 伦敦银 伦敦铂 伦敦钯 WTI原油 LME铜 最新 3302.50 36.07 1295.00 1069.00 64.37 9718.00 变化 -78.05 -0.06 31.00 24.00 -4.14 79.00 品种 美元指数 欧元兑美元 英镑兑美元 美元兑日元 美国10年期TIPS 最新 97.97 1.16 1.36 144.89 - 变化 -0.41 0.00 0.01 -1.25 - 交 易 数 据 | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 库存 | 库存 | | | 库存 | 递延费支付方向 | 递延费支付方向 | | 最新 | - | 1256.83 | 955.68 | 14877.49 | 1378.88 | 2 | 1 | | 变化 | - | 9.73 | -1.72 | -73.50 | 0.00 ...

| 日期 | FOB 380cst | FOB VLSFO | 380基差 | 高硫内外价差 | 低硫内外价差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/06/18 | 486.91 | 548.13 | 7.55 | 9.2 | 20.0 | | 2025/06/19 | 485.32 | 550.77 | 4.65 | 7.5 | 20.4 | | 2025/06/20 | 479.12 | 550.33 | 2.70 | 8.3 | 16.2 | | 2025/06/23 | 475.90 | 549.45 | 3.65 | 9.1 | 18.8 | | 2025/06/24 | 431.62 | 508.57 | 2.75 | 9.8 | 21.1 | | 变化 | -44.28 | -40.88 | -0.90 | 0.7 | 2.3 | | 国 内 F U | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | FU 01 | FU 05 | FU 09 | FU 01-0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The photovoltaic rush in May exceeded expectations, potentially pre - consuming a significant amount of the second - half installation demand. As a result, the subsequent consumer side may be difficult to sustain, and the market may continue to be weak. For industrial silicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [1][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis**: On June 23, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2509 opened at 7375 yuan/ton and closed at 7420 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 303119 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 54184 lots, a decrease of 439 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with individual silicon prices in Kunming and Sichuan decreasing, while those in Tianjin, Xinjiang, and other regions remained unchanged [1]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The supply - demand fundamentals are weak. Although the explicit inventory has decreased due to many warehouse receipt cancellations recently, the total inventory is accumulating. The consumption side is average, with downstream enterprises making rigid purchases [1][2]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that the market will oscillate at the bottom. For single - side operations, it is advisable to operate within a range, and upstream enterprises can sell on rallies for hedging [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis**: On June 23, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures continued to decline, opening at 31200 yuan/ton and closing at 30615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.30% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 78183 lots, and the trading volume was 88450 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, and the inventories of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The weekly output of polysilicon increased by 2.94% week - on - week, while the silicon wafer output decreased by 1.53% week - on - week [3]. - **Price of Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable, with a slight increase in the mainstream transaction price of N - type 210mm components [3][5]. - **Strategy**: The market is mainly trading on the weak expectation of subsequent installations and the production increase of silicon material factories. The market may continue to be weak. For single - side operations, it is advisable to operate within a range and sell on rallies for hedging [6].