Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The cost of imported soybeans may have reached its bottom, but the upside space requires greater production cuts. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range. [5] - The short - term inventory build - up of palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to try a buy - on - dips strategy. [9] - The international sugar price may lack significant improvement until the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to take a short - term wait - and - see approach. [13] - Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend. [17] - The egg futures contracts may be overvalued, and attention should be paid to the upside pressure. [20] - For hog futures, it is recommended to maintain a reverse spread strategy, gradually shifting from shorting near - term contracts to longing far - term contracts. [23] Summary by Categories Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans declined. The USDA monthly report was almost the same as the previous forecast. The domestic soybean meal spot price dropped by 10 yuan, with the East China price at 3000 yuan/ton. The purchase and pick - up of soybean meal were good. MYSTEEL estimated the soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week to be 2.05583 million tons, down from 2.2116 million tons last week. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased last week. [2] - **Weather and Planting**: Brazil's main soybean - growing areas are forecast to have more rainfall in the next two weeks, with a planting rate of 94%. Argentina's main producing areas are expected to have less rainfall. The global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio is still relatively high year - on - year. [3] - **Import and Supply**: The estimated annual production of new global soybeans has been marginally lowered, and the supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season. The domestic soybean inventory is at a relatively high level in history, and the soybean meal inventory is large, but the de - stocking season is approaching. [5] Palm Oil - **Market Conditions**: In November, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased significantly compared to the previous month, and the production showed a mixed trend. On Tuesday, domestic oils closed lower. [6] - **Strategy**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations this year, suppressing the market. However, due to seasonal factors, it is recommended to try a buy - on - dips strategy. [9] Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 5247 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar in different regions remained stable. [11] - **Production**: As of December 7, 2025/26, 56 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of 425,000 tons, down 112,500 tons year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year, and India's sugar production also increased significantly. [12] - **Strategy**: It is expected that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new season, and the global sugar supply - demand relationship will shift from shortage to surplus. It is advisable to take a short - term wait - and - see approach. [13] Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated, with the closing price of the May contract at 13,725 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton decreased slightly. [15] - **Supply and Demand**: As of December 5, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from last week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.47 million tons, up 150,000 tons year - on - year. The global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase. [16] - **Strategy**: Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend due to the lack of strong drivers and the pressure of hedging. [17] Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Most egg prices in the country were stable, with a few rising. The average price in the main producing areas increased by 0.02 yuan to 3.01 yuan/jin. The market inventory was low, and the demand in the sales areas was good. [19] - **Strategy**: The egg futures contracts may be overvalued, and attention should be paid to the upside pressure. [20] Hogs - **Market Conditions**: Domestic hog prices were half stable and half rising. The supply and demand were in a stalemate, with the supply basically stable and the demand increasing only in the southwest region. [22] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to maintain a reverse spread strategy, gradually shifting from shorting near - term contracts to longing far - term contracts. [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Monday saw a decline in international crude oil prices due to factors such as the resumption of normal operations in some Iraqi oil fields, the continuous production - increase plan of OPEC+, high - level US crude oil production, and an increase in crude oil inventory. However, the ongoing Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the expected Fed rate cut next week are likely to support prices. Short - term Brent crude is expected to trade between $60 - 65 per barrel [1]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the continuous decline in Thai raw material prices, the expected increase in overseas supply, the weakening of upstream cost support, and the seasonal increase in overseas shipments have led to a continuous build - up of natural rubber inventory, suppressing spot prices. On the demand side, although tire production is gradually recovering, the overall output increase is limited, and the market is mainly focused on inventory digestion. Short - term rubber prices are expected to be weak and volatile [3]. Methanol - Methanol futures fluctuated narrowly. Spot was purchased on - demand, and the basis was firm. Inland supply increased with plant restarts, but coal - and gas - based production profits were weak. Traditional downstream demand increased slightly, and winter fuel demand provided support. In ports, Iranian gas restrictions led to multiple plant shutdowns, strengthening the expectation of inventory reduction, but high overseas shipments and a large number of registered warrants kept prices weak. Attention should be paid to MTO05 [6][7]. LLDPE and PP - The operating load of polyethylene is gradually increasing, and supply is on the rise. Although upstream inventory is being depleted, it is still higher than the same period last year, and the profit from naphtha cracking is low. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase after maintenance, and inventory depletion is accelerating, but the overall inventory level is still high. The cost of propylene is strong, compressing the profit of PP production processes. Overall, the fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - For pure benzene, domestic supply is expected to remain stable, downstream cash flow has improved slightly, but demand support is limited. There will be a large number of imports arriving at ports, and port inventory is expected to continue to build up. The short - term price driver is weak, and it may follow oil prices and styrene fluctuations. For styrene, although planned and unplanned maintenance is expected to increase, the overall operating rate may rise slightly, and port inventory may continue to decline. However, due to weak cost support and seasonal weakening of terminal demand, the upside space is limited [14]. Urea - Supply pressure is continuously released as the daily production on December 8 reached a recent high. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream procurement willingness is weak. Although the inventory depletion rate of enterprises has accelerated, the overall inventory level is still high. The mismatch between supply and demand is the main reason for price decline, and short - term prices are expected to be weak and volatile [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, short - term supply is less affected, but there is an expected supply contraction in the medium - term. Demand is relatively strong, and short - term price drivers are limited, but medium - term support is strong. PTA supply is expected to decrease in November - December, and demand is relatively strong, with short - term price support. Ethylene glycol is expected to continue to decline due to high overseas supply and inventory build - up. Short - fiber supply remains high, and demand is seasonally weak, with limited price drivers. Polyester bottle - chip supply is expected to increase in December, and demand is weak, with processing fees expected to be squeezed [16]. LPG - The data shows price fluctuations in LPG futures and spot markets, as well as changes in inventory and operating rates. Overall, the market is in a state of adjustment, and attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand and international market prices [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash production is at a high level, and it is expected to return to the inventory - build - up pattern this week. Downstream demand is shrinking, and the supply - demand pattern is bearish. Glass prices in some regions are weakening, and although there is still some short - term demand support, the medium - and long - term demand outlook is not optimistic [19]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda industry supply is abundant, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weak. PVC supply pressure remains high, demand is low, and although there is some export advantage, overall supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude fell from $63.75 to $62.49 per barrel (-1.98%), WTI from $60.08 to $58.88 per barrel (-2.00%), and SC rose from 453.40 to 456.40 yuan/ton (0.66%). Various spreads also showed different degrees of change [1]. - **Refined Oil**: Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil all declined, and their spreads also changed [1]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of various refined oil products in different regions decreased [1]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan Guofu new - type rubber increased slightly, while the price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased. The basis of whole - milk rubber increased [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased significantly, while the 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, production in Thailand, Indonesia, and China decreased, while production in India increased. Tire production and export decreased, and inventory increased [3]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices showed small fluctuations, and various spreads also changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased [6]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rates increased slightly, while some downstream operating rates changed [7]. LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP decreased slightly, and various spreads changed [11]. - **Operating Rates and Inventory**: PE and PP operating rates showed different trends, and enterprise and social inventories decreased [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil, naphtha, and other upstream prices changed, and spreads between products also changed [14]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene prices and spreads showed different degrees of change [14]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories and operating rates in different regions changed [14]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices and spreads changed [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory was at a high level [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Upstream crude oil, naphtha, and other prices changed, and downstream polyester product prices and cash flows also changed [16]. - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: Prices, spreads, inventory, and operating rates of PX, PTA, and MEG all changed [16]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LPG changed, and various spreads also changed [17]. - **External Market Prices**: LPG external market prices increased slightly [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: LPG inventory decreased, and upstream and downstream operating rates changed [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash prices and spreads changed [19]. - **Supply, Inventory, and Real - Estate Data**: Supply, inventory, and real - estate data showed different trends [19]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda prices and spreads changed [20]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Supply, demand, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda showed different trends [20].

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | 12 | 淡季供给过剩主导市场走势，油价上方承压。地缘：俄乌地缘仍有扰动， 月 8 日泽连斯基与英国、德国、法国首脑进行会晤；核心驱动：淡季供 | | 原油 | | | | | 谨慎看空 | 给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原 | | ★ | | 油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关 | | | | 注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。策略：空单继续 | | | | 持有。 | | | | 需求端韧性较强，液化气震荡调整。成本端原油，震荡调整，大趋势仍向 | | LPG | | 下；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70% | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 左右，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端改善，港口与厂内库存环比下降。 | | | | 策略：走势强于沥青和燃料油，锚定成本端油价，大趋势仍向下，反弹偏 | | | 空。 | | | L | | 基差持续偏弱，成本支撑走弱。国 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【新能源周报】 12月排产更新，商品价格承压 国贸期货贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-12-8 分析师：白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号： F03123927 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 02 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS ） 碳酸锂（LC ） 01 PART ONE 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS） 工业硅 ：供给重心向西北转移 ，硅价上方压力较大 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 影响因素 驱动 主要逻辑 供给端 偏多 （1）全国周产8.13 万吨，环比-8.69%；全国开炉238台，环比-19台。 （2）主产区：新疆地区周产4.92 万吨，环比-2.19%，开炉数环比一致。云南地区周产0.55 万吨，环比-19.77%，开炉数环比-11台。四川地区 周产0.25 万吨，环比-60.48%，开炉数环比-7台。 （3）11月产量40.1 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-12-08 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3157 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 18 元/吨（-0.56%）。当日注册仓单 44141 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 147.4541 万手，环比增加 62636 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3200 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3290 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3320 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 12 元/吨（-0.36%）。 当日注册仓单 113732 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/08 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/01 100 3573 115035 31495 -1332.99 -112.30 31.0 47.0 69.10 159425 6475 2025/12/02 120 3264 115035 30568 -1557.87 -95.77 38.0 48.0 69.18 161800 6300 2025/12/03 155 3604 115035 28969 -1649.33 -113.35 38.0 48.0 88.38 162150 56875 2025/12/04 220 4473 115035 32139 -1611.35 -281.23 38.0 48.0 50.44 162825 64325 2025/12/05 210 4659 115035 30936 -860.77 -63.25 38.0 46.0 23.05 162550 6385 ...

（来源：果业研究） 来源：果业研究 国泰君安期货分析认为：在利空影响下，下周一多晶硅合约波动将明显放大，关注下方空间。短期建议 观望。 本周价格走势：工业硅盘面价格整体下行，现货价格下跌；多晶硅盘面重心回落，现货报价稳定。 工业硅供给端，周度行业库存继续累库。据咨询商统计，本周西南地区及新疆地区开工减少，整体周产 环减。具体而言，西南地区11月起逐步减产，按照枯水期电价折算西南枯水期成本在10000-10500元/ 吨，枯水期当地开工持续性回落。月度来看，12月份上游西南减产幅度增加，虽新疆部分工厂有复产但 相较于西南减产体量较少，使得整体11-12月产量环比减少。库存来看，SMM统计本周社会库存累库0.8 万吨，厂库库存累库0.3万吨，整体行业库存累1.1万吨，后续关注期货仓单的注册情况。 工业硅需求端，下游刚需偏弱格局。多晶硅视角，短期硅料周度排产有所增加，后续关注减产情况。有 机硅端，本周有机硅周产降低，多家有机硅单体厂降负荷运行。据称有机硅企业联合于12月起减产挺 价，不过偏自律行为，实际落地性仍有待核实。有机硅短期报价提升，考虑到当下需求淡季、有机硅库 存偏高，挺价逻辑尚难走顺。铝合金端，铝合金锭厂 ...

Group 1: Policy Evolution - The anti-involution policy has undergone multiple iterations, with the central economic work conference in late 2023 first identifying "overcapacity in certain industries" at the national policy level[1] - In 2024, the focus was on industry self-discipline, but most sectors failed to balance supply and demand[1] - From July 2025, governance shifted to a three-dimensional collaboration of "administrative guidance + legal delineation + industry self-discipline," marking a new policy phase[1] Group 2: Capacity Reduction and Price Control - The current anti-involution strategy centers on capacity reduction, with price control as a supplementary measure[1] - The polysilicon sector is expected to clear 1.5 to 2.23 million tons of outdated capacity through energy consumption constraints and market acquisitions[1] - The cement industry has revised its capacity from 1.8 billion tons to 1.6 billion tons and is piloting online production monitoring[1] Group 3: Industry-Specific Measures - Energy-intensive industries like polysilicon and electrolytic aluminum are using energy consumption as a key metric, with 800,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity set to exit by the end of 2026 if not upgraded[1] - Heavy pollution industries such as cement and coking are facing strict environmental constraints, leading to the clearance of tens of millions of tons of capacity[1] - Resource-based industries like lithium and rare earths are tightening compliance with property rights, resulting in a 10% reduction in lithium mica capacity[1] Group 4: Market Performance - From November 29 to December 6, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.28%, the Hang Seng Index by 0.88%, and the S&P 500 by 0.32%[2] - The 10-year China bond yield increased by 0.69 basis points, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 12 basis points[2] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.46%, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.04%[2] Group 5: Inventory and Fund Behavior - The latest crude oil inventory stands at 44.355 million tons, up by 2.78 million tons from the previous week[3] - Copper inventory increased by 14,656 tons to 109,690 tons, while aluminum inventory rose by 2,000 tons to 620,000 tons[3] - The latest week saw a decrease of 530 contracts in long positions for the U.S. dollar, while short positions increased by 229 contracts[3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the week of 12.01 - 12.05, US soybean futures prices mainly declined due to the extension of China's purchase time and lack of expected positive factors. Domestic soybean meal futures prices first rose and then fell, while soybean No.1 futures prices were weak. - In the coming week (12.08 - 12.12), it is expected that the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No.1 will fluctuate weakly. [2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Soybean Market - **China's Purchase of US Soybeans**: On December 5, China purchased 462,000 tons of US soybeans (for delivery in the 2025/26 season). Although the event itself is positive, it is lower than expected and has limited incentive for US soybeans. [2] - **Brazilian Soybean Import Cost**: As of the week of December 5, the average weekly CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased, the average import cost slightly increased, and the average crushing profit on the futures market also increased. [2] - **Brazilian Soybean Planting**: As of the week of November 27, the planting progress of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans was 89%, lower than about 91% in the same period last year. Rainfall distribution was uneven, causing drought in some areas, but it's hard to conclude a yield decline. [2] - **Argentine Soybean Planting**: As of the week of December 4, the planting progress of 2025/26 Argentine soybeans was about 44.7%, lower than about 54% in the same period last year, mainly due to excessive moisture in central Buenos Aires. [2] - **South American Weather Forecast**: In the next two weeks (December 6 - December 19), precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be slightly higher and the temperature will be lower; precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Argentina will be lower and the temperature will be basically normal. Overall, the weather in the producing areas is not a big problem. [2] Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - **Trading Volume**: The weekly trading volume of soybean meal increased. As of the week of December 5, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 140,000 tons, compared with about 120,000 tons in the previous week. [3] - **Pick - up Volume**: The weekly pick - up volume of soybean meal slightly decreased. As of the week of December 5, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 184,000 tons, compared with about 188,000 tons in the previous week. [3] - **Basis**: The weekly average basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) increased to about 143 yuan/ton, compared with about - 10 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 198 yuan/ton in the same period last year. [4] - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal increased both weekly and year - on - year. As of the week of November 28, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 1.08 million tons, with a weekly increase of about 6% and a year - on - year increase of about 45%. [4] - **Crushing Volume**: The weekly soybean crushing volume decreased, and it is expected to increase next week. As of the week of December 5, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 2.06 million tons, and the operating rate was about 57%. Next week (December 6 - December 12), the crushing volume is expected to be about 2.21 million tons, and the operating rate will be 61%. [4] Domestic Soybean No.1 Spot Market - **Soybean Price**: The price of soybean No.1 was stable with a slight increase. In the Northeast, the purchase price of clean soybeans increased by 40 yuan/ton; in the Inner Pass region, the price was flat; and in the sales areas, the price was also flat. [5] - **State Reserve Purchase**: There were no new purchase points for the state reserve. After the opening of purchases at Suihua and Harbin direct - controlled depots, the price was higher than other depots in the province, but there were still few trucks delivering soybeans. [5] - **Farmer's Selling Sentiment**: The increase in the purchase price in the Northeast产区 loosened farmers' reluctance to sell, but the market's acceptance of the increased - price soybeans was average. Later in the week, some large trading entities slightly lowered the purchase price due to rumors of state reserve sales. [5] - **Sales Area Demand**: The pattern of "better in the north and stable in the south" in the sales area demand continued. In the north, the demand for soy products increased due to lower temperatures, and the trading speed of Northeast soybeans was fair; in the south, the demand for edible soybeans did not improve significantly, and the trading speed was normal but slow. [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel market shows a pattern of continued differentiation in inventory reduction between rebar and hot-rolled coils. Rebar maintains good inventory reduction due to production cuts, while hot-rolled coils have a slower inventory reduction. It is expected that the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar will continue to narrow in January. The overall supply and demand situation indicates a year-on-year decrease in demand intensity in the second half of the year, with a seasonal weakening expectation on a month-on-month basis. However, the reduction in hot metal production provides support for steel prices. Steel prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot-rolled coils, it is 3250 - 3400. The spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar has converged to 180, and the current position can be held. Considering the decline in hot metal, which suppresses iron ore prices, the long rebar and short iron ore arbitrage in the January contract can continue to be held [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures showed a weak oscillation yesterday. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume increased week-on-week last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, steel mills continued to cut production, hot metal production decreased, and steel mills increased maintenance. Steel prices rebounded in oscillation, and the profitability of steel mills improved. From the data of the five major steel products, it can be seen that steel production decreased, inventory continued to decline, and apparent demand decreased seasonally. In terms of inventory, iron ore port inventory increased, while the port clearance volume decreased, and the equity inventory of steel mills increased. Looking ahead, with the decline in hot metal this week, steel prices showed signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and market expectations began to improve. With the recovery of downstream demand, there is no basis for a significant decline in hot metal production, which provides support for iron ore demand. Iron ore is supported by downstream restocking on the one hand and has a need for basis repair on the other hand. Considering the high price level, iron ore futures will oscillate in the range of 750 - 820 [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Coke**: The coke futures showed an oscillating rebound yesterday. The port trade quotes stabilized, and the first round of price cuts by steel mills was implemented after four rounds of price increases. In the short term, there is still an expectation of further price cuts, and port prices have fallen in advance. On the supply side, the price reduction range of coking coal in the Shanxi market has expanded, and the auction prices of various coal types have begun to decline. Coking profits have improved, and coke price adjustments lag behind coking coal, and coke price cuts lag behind coking coal price reductions. Coking plant operating rates have increased. On the demand side, steel mills have increased maintenance due to losses, hot metal production has declined, steel prices have rebounded in oscillation, and steel mill profits have improved, with an intention to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, coking plants have increased inventory, while ports and steel mills have reduced inventory. The overall inventory has slightly increased, and the supply and demand of coke have weakened. The coke futures have fallen in advance, basically over - discounting the expected price cuts in the spot market. Considering that there is no problem of cornering the market with coke warehouse receipts, the room for further decline is limited. Strategically, it should be viewed as an oscillating market, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and a reverse arbitrage between the January and May contracts of coke is recommended [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures showed an oscillating rebound yesterday, while the spot market continued to decline, and the rebound space of the spot - weakening market is limited. In the spot market, the high - price auction prices of Shanxi coking coal have declined, and Mongolian coal quotes have stabilized. Recently, the rate of auction failures has decreased, and traders are cautiously waiting and watching. The power coal market has continued to decline, and the coal spot market has shifted back to a loose state. On the supply side, coal mine shipments are poor, daily production has slightly decreased, 3 new coal mines with a total capacity of 300,000 tons have stopped production, and 4 new coal mines with a total capacity of 420,000 tons have resumed production. Coal production may continue to decline near the end of the year. In terms of imported coal, the growth rate of port inventory has slowed down, and Mongolian coal quotes have stabilized following the futures. On the demand side, steel mills have increased maintenance due to losses, hot metal production has declined, coking plant operating rates have slightly increased after the recovery of coking profits, and the restocking demand in the downward market has weakened. In terms of inventory, coking plants and steel mills have reduced inventory, while coal mines, coal washing plants, ports, and border ports have increased inventory. The overall inventory has slightly increased. In terms of policy, ensuring the supply of long - term contract coal for power plants remains the main theme, and a coal mine with a capacity of 180,000 tons in Inner Mongolia has shut down. Strategically, the spot prices of coking coal and coke continue to decline, and after a significant decline in the futures market, it will oscillate in a range. It should be viewed as an oscillating market, with a reference range of 1050 - 1150, and a reverse arbitrage between the January and May contracts of coking coal is recommended [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contracts showed various changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China remained at 3300 yuan/ton, while the 01 contract price increased by 11 yuan to 3148 yuan/ton. The spot price of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 10 yuan to 3310 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price increased by 4 yuan to 3323 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The steel billet price remained at 2990 yuan/ton, and the plate billet price remained at 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 2 yuan to 3247 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 5 yuan to - 29 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average hot metal production decreased by 2.0 tons to 232.0 tons, a decrease of 0.9%. The production of the five major steel products decreased by 26.8 tons to 829.0 tons, a decrease of 3.1%. The rebar production decreased by 16.8 tons to 189.3 tons, a decrease of 8.1% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 35.2 tons to 1365.6 tons, a decrease of 2.5%. The rebar inventory decreased by 27.7 tons to 503.8 tons, a decrease of 5.2%. The hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.5 tons to 400.4 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 0.4 to 9.4, an increase of 4.5%. The apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased by 23.8 tons to 864.2 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 11.0 tons to 217.0 tons, a decrease of 4.8% [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased slightly. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 6.6 yuan to 796.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.8%. The 01 contract basis of PB fines increased by 1.7 yuan to 46.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.8% [3]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indices**: The spot prices of various iron ore types at Rizhao Port decreased slightly. For example, the price of Carajás fines at Rizhao Port decreased by 6.0 yuan to 877.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.7% [3]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) decreased by 117.8 tons to 2699.3 tons, a decrease of 4.2%. The global shipment volume (weekly) increased by 44.8 tons to 3323.2 tons, an increase of 1.4% [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume (weekly) increased by 3.6 tons to 330.6 tons, an increase of 1.1% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory (weekly) increased by 27.3 tons to 15237.39 tons, an increase of 0.2%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 58.8 tons to 8942.5 tons, a decrease of 0.7% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various coke types and contracts changed. For example, the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained at 1662 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price of coke increased by 27 yuan to 1652 yuan/ton [7]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various coking coal types and contracts also changed. For example, the price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained at 1300 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price of coking coal increased by 21 yuan to 1092 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.8 tons to 64.5 tons, an increase of 1.2%. The daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 tons to 46.6 tons, an increase of 0.6% [7]. - **Demand**: The hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.8 tons to 64.5 tons, an increase of 1.2% [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 1.7 tons to 883.0 tons, a decrease of 0.24%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 9.6 tons to 107.6 tons, an increase of 9.8% [7]. - **Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The coke supply - demand gap increased by 1.8 tons to - 2.5 tons, an increase of 74.2% [7].