1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Oscillatory adjustment [1][6] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1][11] - L: Bearish trend continues [15] - PP: Bearish trend continues [1][19] - PVC: Range - bound oscillation [1][23] - PTA: Range - bound consolidation, expect positive outlook [2][27] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [2][30] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2][33] - Urea: Cautiously chase up [2][38] - LNG: Oscillatory consolidation [5][42] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [5][46] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [5][51] - Soda ash: Bearish consolidation [5][55] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends, core drivers, and supply - demand situations of multiple energy and chemical products, providing investment strategies and price range suggestions for each product based on factors like geopolitical situations, cost changes, and seasonal demand fluctuations [1][2][5] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight, oil prices declined. WTI dropped 2.84%, Brent fell 2.75%, and domestic SC rose 1.13% [6][7] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term, geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East persist. Core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, with increasing global crude inventories. US crude and refined product inventories are both rising, putting downward pressure on oil prices [8][9] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC + maintained its production policy unchanged in the February 1st meeting, pausing production increases in March. US crude production is gradually rising as the impact of the cold wave subsides. Indian crude imports in December increased 1.6% month - on - month. As of January 30th, US crude inventories decreased by 3.45 million barrels [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. Short - term, it will oscillate and adjust with increased volatility. Pay attention to geopolitical developments in the Middle East. SC should focus on the range [465 - 480] [10] LPG - **Market Review**: On February 5th, the PG main contract closed at 4,197 yuan/ton, down 0.85% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,470, 4,446, and 4,845 yuan/ton respectively [11][12] - **Basic Logic**: It mainly follows the cost of oil prices. In the long - term, oil prices are under pressure. Supply is stable, but downstream chemical demand is weakening, and inventories are accumulating [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the price center is expected to move down. Short - term, due to uncertainties in oil prices and a bearish fundamental outlook, focus on the range [4150 - 4250] [14] L - **Market Review**: L05 closed at 6,777 yuan/ton, down 2.0% [16] - **Basic Logic**: Cost factors such as oil and ethane prices are falling. Production is expected to continue increasing. Before the Spring Festival, demand is weak. Pay attention to the situation after the festival [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range [6700 - 6900] [18] PP - **Market Review**: PP05 closed at 6,676 yuan/ton, down 1.8% [20] - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, it follows cost fluctuations. In the off - season, inventories are accumulating in the upstream and mid - stream. The supply - demand situation is weak, with a 20% shutdown ratio. PDH profits are low, providing cost support. Pay attention to future demand verification [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range [6550 - 6750] [22] PVC - **Market Review**: V05 closed at 5,155 yuan/ton, up 1.7% [24] - **Basic Logic**: Weekly export orders are weakening, and social inventories are at a record high. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is at a low level, providing bottom - line cost support. However, long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and high - inventory structure is difficult to change [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range [4900 - 5100] [26] PTA - **Market Review**: TA05 closed at 5,270 yuan/ton [27] - **Basic Logic**: Valuation has improved, with better processing fees. Supply is relatively stable as domestic devices are under planned maintenance. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and there is seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February, but the pressure is not significant [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamental outlook is positive. Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips for the 05 contract. TA05 should focus on the range [5090 - 5230] [29] MEG - **Market Review**: EG05 closed at 4,081 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan [30] - **Basic Logic**: Low - valuation has been repaired. Domestic production load has increased, while downstream demand is seasonally weak. Port inventories are rising, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in January - February [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. EG05 should focus on the range [3690 - 3790] [32] Methanol - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned [33] - **Basic Logic**: The main contract is at a high valuation level. Domestic production load remains high, while overseas devices are significantly under - loaded. Demand has weakened significantly. Cost support is relatively stable. Geopolitical conflicts and cold weather in North America bring short - term positive factors [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is a game between weak current reality and strong future expectations. Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips. MA05 should focus on the range [2200 - 2260] [37] Urea - **Market Review**: UR05 closed at 1,777 yuan/ton [38] - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The overall production load is rising, and demand is short - term strong but expected to weaken as it enters the holiday off - season. There are upper and lower limits on prices due to policies [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Supply and demand are both strong, but downstream demand support is expected to weaken. Cautiously chase up. UR05 should focus on the range [1760 - 1790] [41] LNG - **Market Review**: On February 4th, the NG main contract closed at 3.458 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 2.40% [42][43] - **Basic Logic**: The impact of the cold wave has diminished, and prices have gradually declined. Domestic LNG retail profits have increased. Supply decreased in January, and demand in Japan declined in 2025. US natural gas inventories decreased but were higher than the same period last year and the five - year average [44] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, demand supports prices, but supply is relatively sufficient. NG should focus on the range [3.329 - 3.680] [45] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On February 5th, the BU main contract closed at 3,339 yuan/ton, down 0.65% [47][48] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause oil prices to oscillate strongly. Asphalt profits have declined. Supply in February decreased, and demand imports and exports increased in 2025. Inventories have risen [49] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is high. Pay attention to the import of asphalt raw materials. There are uncertainties in supply. Be cautious about risks. BU should focus on the range [3300 - 3400] [50] Glass - **Market Review**: FG05 closed at 1,088 yuan/ton, down 1.9% [52] - **Basic Logic**: Daily melting volume has slightly decreased, and the supply - demand is weakly balanced. The market is in a supply - demand weak pattern, with high - level inventory accumulation. Demand is in the off - season. More supply cuts are needed to reduce inventory. Be cautious about chasing up before further cold - repair [54] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range [1050 - 1100] [54] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: SA05 closed at 1,229 yuan/ton, up 2.3% [56] - **Basic Logic**: Heavy - soda demand has declined, and factory inventories have risen for two consecutive weeks. Real - estate demand is weak, and heavy - soda demand support is insufficient. New production capacity has been put into operation, and production capacity utilization has decreased. Be cautious about chasing up before further maintenance [58] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range [1170 - 1220] [58]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene port inventory peaked and declined slightly at the beginning of the week. China's pure benzene operating rate started to bottom out and rebound, and the pressure of overseas supply being shipped to China still exists. Downstream, the styrene operating rate bottomed out and rebounded; the caprolactam operating rate remained at a low level, the phenol operating rate slightly declined from a high level, and the adipic acid and aniline operating rates performed well, with their sustainability to be observed [3]. - For styrene, the lowest point of domestic operating rate has gradually passed, with Sinochem Quanzhou restarting and Tianjin Bohua expected to resume production. Styrene port inventory still declined in the middle of the week, and the inventory rebuilding cycle is yet to be realized. Downstream, the ABS operating rate further decreased, but the inventory pressure has been significantly relieved; PS continued its seasonal production reduction cycle, and the inventory pressure was at a low level compared to the same period; EPS operating rate performed impressively, and the finished product inventory was significantly reduced [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread of Pure Benzene and EB - The basis of pure benzene's main contract is 23 yuan/ton (+53), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is -115 yuan/ton (-20 yuan/ton). The basis of styrene's main contract is 161 yuan/ton (+18 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 183 US dollars/ton (-3 US dollars/ton), and FOB South Korea processing fee is 182 US dollars/ton (-3 US dollars/ton). The price difference between the US and South Korea is 91.0 US dollars/ton (-9.0 US dollars/ton). Styrene non - integrated production profit is 566 yuan/ton (-48 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory is 30.50 tons (+0.00 tons). Styrene East China port inventory is 108,600 tons (+8,000 tons), and East China commercial inventory is 60,800 tons (-1,500 tons), in the inventory rebuilding stage. Pure benzene operating rate is starting to bottom out and rebound, and styrene operating rate is 70.0% (+0.7%) [1][3]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS production profit is 129 yuan/ton (+69 yuan/ton), PS production profit is -422 yuan/ton (-31 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is -843 yuan/ton (+109 yuan/ton). EPS operating rate is 56.24% (+2.98%), PS operating rate is 55.20% (-0.40%), and ABS operating rate is 64.40% (-1.70%) [2]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam production profit is -755 yuan/ton (+125), phenol - ketone production profit is -766 yuan/ton (+0), aniline production profit is 1061 yuan/ton (-73), and adipic acid production profit is -385 yuan/ton (+27). Caprolactam operating rate is 73.16% (-0.41%), phenol operating rate is 86.00% (-2.00%), aniline operating rate is 89.04% (+0.51%), and adipic acid operating rate is 69.10% (+0.60%) [1].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹需求环比下降，春节临近，现货成交持续萎缩。螺纹利润尚可，产量在利润支撑下 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 回升，库存累积。铁水产量变化不大，供需总体符合季节性规律。钢材供需层面矛盾有 | | | | 限，中期维持区间运行。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需相对平稳，库存略有上升，绝对水平偏高。钢厂利润总体一般，节前生 | | | 谨慎看空 | 产相对平稳。现货相对较弱，基差在平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对行情形成压制， | | ★ | | 中期维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看空 | 钢厂进口矿库存水平明显上升，补库进入尾声，铁水环比小幅回升，外矿发货继续增加， | | ★ | | 铁矿基本面中性略偏弱，价格或承压。 | | | | 焦炭首轮提涨落地，二轮提涨有难度。近期焦企亏损程度略有减轻，受生产惯性短期焦 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看空 | 企生产积极性尚可，供应量环比略降。从需求来看，铁水产量变化不大，下游维持按需 | | ★ | | 采购。预计短期维持区间运行。 | | 焦煤 | 谨慎看空 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on February 5, 2026 - **Stock Market**: A-share three major indices collectively pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.64% to close at 4075.92; the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.44% to 13952.71; the ChiNext Index declined 1.55% to 3260.28. The trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was only 2.1945 trillion yuan, a decrease of 309 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Futures Market**: - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 4670.42, a decrease of 28.26 [2]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The coke weighted index oscillated and consolidated, closing at 1742.0, a decrease of 12.8. The coking coal weighted index fluctuated within a range, closing at 1181.6 yuan, a decrease of 26.6 [2][3]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract rose slightly on February 5, despite the decline in US sugar on Wednesday due to abundant spot supply. In January, Guangxi produced 2.0871 million tons of sugar, an increase of 21,500 tons year - on - year; sold 665,800 tons, a decrease of 82,900 tons year - on - year; and had an industrial inventory of 2.4784 million tons, an increase of 42,300 tons year - on - year. Yunnan produced 591,800 tons of sugar in January, sold 250,600 tons, and had an industrial inventory of 452,100 tons [4]. - **Rubber**: The Shanghai rubber futures fell on February 5 due to the decline in the weekly operating rate of tire factories. The semi - steel tire sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 72.09%, a decrease of 2.23 percentage points month - on - month; the full - steel tire sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 60.45%, a decrease of 2.02 percentage points month - on - month [4][5]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean futures continued to rise on February 5. Stonex estimated that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would reach 181.6 million tons, a 2.3% increase from the January forecast. In the domestic market, the soybean meal main 2605 contract closed at 2731 yuan/ton, a 0.29% increase. At the end of January, the domestic soybean meal inventory rose slightly to about 900,000 tons [5]. - **Live Pigs**: The live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 11,685 yuan/ton on February 5, a 0.43% decrease from the previous trading day. In February, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs remained high, while consumer demand entered a seasonal peak [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil main contract P2605 continued to decline on February 5, closing at 9042, a 1.05% decrease from the previous trading day. Malaysia's palm oil production in January was estimated to decrease by 14% to 1.57 million tons [5]. - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper main contract showed a trend of rising and then falling on February 5, with significant capital outflows. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 101,260 - 101,670 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 3760 yuan/ton [5]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14,620 yuan/ton on the night of February 5, with an increase of 62 lots in inventory compared to the previous trading day. Textile enterprises made rigid - demand purchases [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore 2605 main contract fell 1.73% on February 5, closing at 768.5 yuan. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil continued to increase, and port inventories continued to accumulate [6]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt 2603 main contract fell 0.36% on February 5, closing at 3339 yuan. Asphalt supply remained low, refinery inventory pressure was not large, and terminal demand continued to shrink [6]. - **Log**: The log 2603 main contract closed at 802 on February 5, with a decrease of 407 lots in positions. The port coniferous log inventory had declined for three consecutive weeks [6]. - **Alumina**: The ao2605 contract closed at 2790 yuan/ton on February 5. The increase in social inventory slowed down, while the warehouse - receipt inventory increased. The spot market trading atmosphere weakened, and the price was under pressure [6]. - **Aluminum**: The al2603 contract closed at 23,385 yuan/ton on February 5. The downstream purchasing sentiment was slightly improved due to the decline in aluminum prices, but the overall purchasing sentiment was still low. The industry's inventory continued to accumulate [6]. 2. Core Views - The A - share market showed a collective pull - back on February 5, with reduced trading volume [1]. - In the futures market, different varieties had different trends. Some were affected by supply - demand relationships, such as coke and coking coal with changes in supply and demand from upstream and downstream; some were influenced by international market conditions, like soybean meal affected by Brazilian and Argentine soybean production prospects; and some were related to seasonal factors, such as live pigs and palm oil [4][5]. 3. Future Outlook - For soybean meal, it is recommended to focus on South American weather changes and soybean arrival volume [5]. - For live pigs, pay attention to the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the realization of peak - season demand [5]. - For copper, focus on the support at the 100,000 - yuan mark, inventory, and macro - news guidance [5]. - For iron ore, the short - term price will be in a volatile trend [6]. - For asphalt, the short - term price will show a volatile operation [6]. - For logs, follow the spot - price support, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [6]. - For alumina, although it is expected to stabilize, the rebound pressure is large after the Spring Festival [6]. - For aluminum, the short - term price volatility risk in the aluminum and non - ferrous metal markets has significantly increased, and the price may be affected by factors such as the Fed's policy shift [6][7].

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 昨日 SR605 合约收盘价 5224 元/吨，日涨幅 0.27%，夜盘收 5241 元/吨；SR609 合约 | | | | | 收盘价 5227 元/吨，日涨幅 0.25%，夜盘收 5250 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1.昨日广西白糖现货成交价为 5256 元/吨，上涨 2 元/吨；广西制糖集团报价区间为 | | | | | 5270~5370 元/吨，少数上调 10~30 元/吨；云南制糖集团报价 5110~ 5180 元/吨， | | | | | 加工糖厂主流报价区间为 5580~5800 元/吨，报价持稳。 | | | | | 2.咨询机构 Stonex 近日发布报告，预计 2026/27 榨季巴西中南部地区食糖产量为 | | | | | 4070 万吨，较此前预估的 4150 万吨减少 80 万吨。预计 202 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore: As steel mills' inventory replenishment nears completion, ore prices will fluctuate downward [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Their apparent demands decline month - on - month, and prices will fluctuate widely [2][9][10]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: There is a game between fundamentals and sentiment, and prices will fluctuate widely [2][14]. - Coke and coking coal: Prices will fluctuate at high levels [2][18]. - Steam coal: News of production cuts in Indonesia stimulates the import market, and domestic coal prices will remain stable before the Spring Festival [2][22]. - Logs: Prices will consolidate with fluctuations [2][25]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of I2605 was 768.5 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton or 1.66%. The positions increased by 9,456 lots to 525,113 lots. Spot prices of imported ores such as PB and super - special decreased, while domestic ores remained stable. The basis and spreads had minor changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, and some real - estate enterprises no longer need to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish view [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 were 3,101 yuan/ton and 3,263 yuan/ton respectively, down 9 yuan/ton and 13 yuan/ton, with decreases of 0.29% and 0.40%. Spot prices in most regions remained stable. There were changes in basis and spreads [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to February 5th steel union weekly data, rebar production decreased by 8.15 tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 0.05 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 59.24 tons. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 28.76 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil decreased by 5.87 tons. In late January 2026, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 2.2%, pig iron decreased by 3.0%, and steel increased by 3.2%. The steel inventory of key enterprises decreased by 8.8% compared with the previous ten - day period [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The prices of silicon - iron 72 and 75 in some regions increased. The closing prices and positions of relevant futures contracts had changes. There were also changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The proportion of coal - fired power generation units' fixed - cost recovery through capacity tariffs will be increased to at least 50%. UMK's March 2026 manganese ore price for China increased. River Steel's February 75B ferrosilicon procurement price remained the same as in January, but the quantity decreased. In January, the electricity price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia showed a downward trend, while in Qinghai, it increased [14][15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of JM2605 and J2605 were 1,172 yuan/ton and 1,738 yuan/ton respectively, down 37 yuan/ton and 32 yuan/ton, with decreases of 3.1% and 1.8%. Spot prices of some coking coals and cokes changed slightly, and there were changes in basis and spreads [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 5th, the CCI metallurgical coal index of China Coal Resources Network showed a decline in some coal prices. The coke market was running weakly, with steel mills' procurement enthusiasm being average [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [20]. Steam Coal - **Fundamentals**: The prices of steam coal in different regions and ports had slight changes, and the long - term agreement prices decreased [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 5th, the port steam coal market was stable with a slight upward trend. Near the Spring Festival, the spot market showed weak supply and demand, and port inventories continued to decline. News of import coal reduction led to an increase in import coal prices, providing support for the domestic market. There were also reports of potential production cuts in Indonesian coal mines [24]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts had different degrees of change. Spot prices of most log products remained stable [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, and some real - estate enterprises no longer need to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [28].

2026 年 02 月 06 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 安 期 货 研 究 所 工业硅：关注库存变化情况 多晶硅：区间震荡格局 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,605 | -245 | -320 | -295 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 315,564 | 107,338 | 15,332 | -144,903 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 266,982 | 25,966 | 30,329 | 32,371 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 49,550 | -1,645 | 215 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 11,483 | -1,530 | -4,143 | - | | | | PS26 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The pig market continues its weak oscillation with significant regional differentiation. The average price of ternary pigs in the country is reported at 12.00 yuan/kg, slightly down 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous day. The market has entered a "price decline - reluctance to sell" game phase, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the festival. Attention should be paid to the changes in the selling mentality of secondary fattening farmers after the stabilization in the north [3] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market - **Previous Day Closing Price**: For January, it's 13325; March, 10995; May, 11685; July, 12245; September, 13135; November, 13030 [2] - **Two - day Ago Closing Price**: January, 13355; March, 11150; May, 11735; July, 12295; September, 13210; November, 13130 [2] - **Price Changes**: January, -30; March, -155; May, -50; July, -50; September, -75; November, -100 [2] - **Price Change Ratios**: January, -0.22%; March, -1.39%; May, -0.43%; July, -0.41%; September, -0.57%; November, -0.76% [2] - **Trading Volume**: January, 202; March, 36874; May, 68397; July, 7962; September, 6735; November, 2978 [2] - **Open Interest**: January, 1796; March, 74864; May, 144469; July, 50256; September, 37175; November, 23065 [2] - **Change in Open Interest**: January, 13; March, -8977; May, -1506; July, -199; September, 109; November, 855 [2] - **Price Spreads**: 1 - 3 months, 2330; 3 - 5 months, -690; 5 - 7 months, -560; 7 - 9 months, -890; 9 - 11 months, 105; 11 - 1 month, -295 [2] - **Previous Price Spreads**: 1 - 3 months, 2205; 3 - 5 months, -585; 5 - 7 months, -560; 7 - 9 months, -915; 9 - 11 months, 80; 11 - 1 month, -225 [2] Spot Market - **Spot Prices (Yuan/ton)**: Henan, 12.36; Sichuan, 11.54; Hunan, 11.88; Guangdong, 11.9; Guangxi, 11.84; Liaoning, 12.14 [2] - **Previous Spot Prices (Yuan/ton)**: Henan, 12.22; Sichuan, 11.77; Hunan, 12.1; Guangdong, 12.15; Guangxi, 12.1; Liaoning, 12.23 [2] - **Price Changes**: Henan, 0.14; Sichuan, -23.31; Hunan, -0.22; Guangdong, -0.25; Guangxi, -0.26; Liaoning, -0.09 [2] Warehouse Receipts - **Quantity**: 647, with no change from the previous two days [2]

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 5 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力低开低走，日内走弱。120 分钟布林带走紧口喇叭， 短线震荡信号，盘中压力关注布林带上轨附近，支撑关注日线的 60 均线附近。 成交量较昨日减 47.5 万手，持仓量较昨日减 36791 手；日内最高 1227，最低 1201，收盘 1209，（较昨结算价）跌 10 元/吨，跌幅 0.82%。 2，现货市场：弱稳震荡。企业装置运行稳定，供应维持高位徘徊。下游需 求表需平平，采购积极性不佳，保持随用随采刚需为主。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 2 月 5 日，国内纯碱产量 77.43 万吨，环比下降 0.88 万吨， 跌幅 1.12%。其中，轻碱产量 36.03 万吨，环比下降 0.17 万吨；重碱产量 41.40 万吨，环比下降 0.71 万吨。综合产能利用率 83.25%，上周 84.19%，环比下降 0.94%。其中氨碱产能利用率 88.21%，环比下降 0.78%；联产产能利用率 77.23%， 环比增加 2.58%。16 家年产能百万吨及以上规模企业整体产能利用率 86.47%， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, due to the approaching Spring Festival, terminal factories are about to have holidays, polyester production cuts are expanding, demand is weakening, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in February. With large cost - side disturbances, unclear crude oil trends, and a positive outlook for PX in the long - term, the short - term PTA price is expected to be oscillating and bearish [3] - For MEG, although the comprehensive operating rate has decreased, the port inventory is still accumulating, and there are plans for large ships to arrive in February. The expectation of inventory accumulation is difficult to reverse. With weakening downstream polyester demand before the Spring Festival, there is a supply - demand imbalance. The price is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Main Contract**: On February 5, the PTA main futures contract TA605 fell 1.11%, and the basis strengthened to - 36 yuan/ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: The market price of PTA in East China today is 5140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Brent crude oil is oscillating at a high level of 68 US dollars per barrel. The PTA capacity utilization rate remained flat at 76.90% compared to the previous working day. The weekly PTA factory inventory days are 3.74 days, a decrease of 0.16 days from last week [3] - **Main Force Movements**: The long - position main force reduced positions [3] - **Trend Expectation**: The short - term PTA price is expected to be oscillating and bearish [3] MEG - **Main Contract**: On February 5, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2605 fell 0.87%, and the basis weakened to - 122 yuan/ton [4] - **Fundamentals**: The market price of ethylene glycol in East China today is 3642 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The prices of crude oil and coal on the cost side are under pressure. The total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China is 83.6 tons, an increase of 1.4 tons from the previous period [4] - **Main Force Movements**: There are differences between the long - and short - position main forces [4] - **Trend Expectation**: The short - term ethylene glycol price is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [4]