-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡偏弱 焦煤——震荡偏弱 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 煤焦现货再次下调，盘面增仓下行 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 29 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 1. 美国联邦法院当地时间 5 月 28 日阻止了美国总统特朗普在 4 月 2 号宣布的关税政 策生效，并裁定其对美国出口多于进口的国家征收全面关税的行为越权。 焦煤： 现货下调，期货下行。蒙 5#主焦煤报 920 元/吨(-50)。活跃合约报 779 元/吨(-20.5)。 基差 161 元/吨(-29.5)，9-1 ...

黄金1小时均线继续死叉向下的空头发散，昨天我们就说了，一旦黄金1小时均线形成死叉向下，那么新 的下跌空间将打开，果然如期继续大跌，黄金空头现在气势正盛，反弹就是给继续空的机会。前几天我 们也开始说黄金已经开始有头肩顶结构的雏形，现在跌破头肩顶结构的颈线位，那么黄金短期顶部形态 确立，黄金颈线位阻力3285一线压制下都是逢高继续空。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上金晟富建 议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注3323-3325一线阻力，下方短期重点关注3280-3250 一线支撑，各位朋友一定要跟上节奏。要控制好仓位及止损问题、严格设止损，切勿抗单操作。具体点 位以盘中实时为主，欢迎前来体验，交流实时行情，进群关注实时单。 换资前言： 方向不对，努力白费，能让你生气的行情，说明你还没有驾驭的能力，震荡的时候想单边，单边的时候 想反转，你的习惯将是你最大的弱点，不要总是与行情对着干，多总结经验，暂时的失利，不代表什 么，经验靠积累，一个优秀的分析师会让你少走很多弯路。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周四（5月29日）亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡下跌，一度跳水逾30美元，失守325 ...

（原标题：蒋飞：论降息的重要性） ???核心观点 自5月8日央行降息以来，对今年剩余月份是否继续降息的讨论仍未结束。乐观者认为经济已经企稳，不 再需要降息这种"激进"的货币政策；悲观者认为稳经济压力持续存在，降息周期并未结束。本文我们将 通过这次降息，来讨论降息的重要性。 从当下稳经济的角度出发，降息顺应了资金供需变化的要求，起到稳定房地产市场的作用，提振国内投 资和消费以对冲外需不确定性。当然这种降息更是兑现了长期降息大周期的趋势，在人口、债务、经济 结构等影响中长期基本面因素改善之前的必然选择。 但降息解决不了利率传导不畅、杠杆率持续走高、银行净息差不断缩窄、国内外利差扩大的问题。我们 认为降息是货币政策工具箱里的一种，宏观调控不单单只有货币政策，不能对降息苛刻太多。 我国目前仍有降息空间。根据我们在《财政政策和货币政策的配合（2）》的测算，要让2025年政府杠 杆率不增加，实际利率应该下降至0.32%。这与今年一季度实际利率4.52%（金融机构贷款加权平均利 率：一般贷款-GDP平减指数）相差仍然很大，相对应的政府杠杆率继续上升了2.4个百分点至63.2%。 而在《中国财政可持续性研究》中我们发现，中国 ...

一、宏观动态 宏观政策：财政政策更积极，赤字率提至4%，专项债限额4.4万亿，超长期特别国债1.3万亿；货币政策适度宽松，央行一季度净投放3.02万亿元，3月MLF 改革，利率市场化再进一步。 宏观数据：经济景气回升，3月综合PMI 51.4%，投资消费回暖，社融增量创同期新高，但进出口承压，通胀温和，M1-M2剪刀差扩大。 基准利率：10年期国债收益率震荡上行，受经济预期、政策及资金面影响，3月因MLF改革等因素波动。 人民币汇率：对美元升值，对欧元、日元贬值，受中美政策、贸易顺差等因素影响。 二、债券市场 一级市场：发行规模12.19万亿元，同比增21.8%，地方政府债增69.07%，信用债发行降5.07%，成本双降，产业债中公用事业增108.53%，城投债发行收 缩，央企融资提升，民企净流出。 二级市场：信用债成交环比降18.3%，利差整体收窄但震荡大，产业债多数行业利差收窄，城投债仅河北微升，整体收窄30.15bp。 三、违约与评级调整 违约：1家企业首次违约，2家展期，违约金额20亿元，集中于汽车零售和多元金融行业。 评级调整：国内上调10家（城投占半），国际上调3家；国内下调7家，国际下调11家， ...

Group 1 - The international gold market experienced significant selling pressure, with spot gold prices dropping below the critical psychological level of $3300 per ounce, reaching a low of $3390 due to a rebound in the US dollar index and easing international trade tensions [2] - Despite a slight recovery to around $3308 driven by bargain buying, market attention remains focused on international trade dynamics, US fiscal policy outlook, and Federal Reserve monetary policy [2] - Short-term gold price movements are influenced by the US dollar, interest rate expectations, and economic data, with the $3300 level being crucial for market sentiment [2] Group 2 - The gold price faced downward pressure as it tested trendline resistance multiple times without breaking, leading to a decline and breaking the support level at $3320 [4] - On the daily chart, gold prices are consolidating at high levels around $3350, with MACD indicators showing bearish pressure, and the Bollinger Band's middle line support at $3287 is critical [4] - The four-hour chart indicates a shift from a five-wave to a three-wave structure, suggesting a corrective phase, with key resistance at $3320 and potential further declines towards the $3270-$3250 range [5]

Core Viewpoint - In the absence of support from the Bank of Japan, the yield curve of Japanese government bonds may continue to steepen, influenced by recent adverse factors and upcoming fiscal measures [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - The ruling coalition in Japan may announce fiscal measures, such as cost-of-living subsidies, before the July Senate elections, potentially worsening Japan's fiscal situation [1] - Recent statements from Japanese life insurance companies indicate plans to reduce their holdings of Japanese government bonds, contributing to the steepening yield curve [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The clarity of Japan's fiscal policy trajectory and the Bank of Japan's bond purchasing plans will be crucial for stabilizing the long-term yield curve in the coming weeks [1]

5月19-25 日期间接受调查的36位全球范围内的经济学家全部预计，韩国央行将于5月29日把韩国基准利 率下调 25个基点至2.50%，该水平的利率上次出现于2022年8月。 来自法国兴业银行的韩国首席经济学家吴锡泰表示："4月的货币政策会议上，政策制定者们已强烈暗示 将会降息，且短期经济增长预期也可能被显著下调。此后公布的数据并未出现足以阻止韩国央行降息的 因素。事实上，一季度经济收缩、美国关税不确定性持续以及美元/韩元汇率下跌，都进一步支持韩国 央行货币宽松政策。" 在提供长期利率展望的27名受访经济学家中，有 23位经济学家预计到下一季度末基准利率将在当前水 平基础上再降50个基点至 2.25%，该观点与上期调查数据大体一致。 智通财经APP获悉，一项面向多位经济学家的最新调查数据显示，他们集体预计韩国央行将于周四把关 键政策利率下调25个基点，主要因上季度韩国经济活动意外萎缩且通胀持续趋于温和，加之央行的政策 制定者们已经充分暗示了降息可能性，为韩国央行重启宽松货币政策周期提供了重要的数据凭证。 值得注意的是，韩国央行行长李昌镛此前在4月的货币政策会议上已暗示降息的可能性，叠加几天后公 布的韩国官方数 ...

Group 1: Economic Environment and Challenges - The current international situation is evolving significantly, with increasing competition in technology and industry, leading to heightened external uncertainties [2] - Trade protectionism is on the rise, increasing export pressures on China, particularly in industries heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. such as machinery and electronics [3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8% due to ongoing trade policy uncertainties [3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Manufacturing Risks - There are two major risks for China's manufacturing sector: decoupling and technology blockade, as developed countries attempt to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains [4] - Developed countries are implementing strategies to attract low-end manufacturing away from China, while simultaneously restricting high-end manufacturing technology from leaving [4] Group 3: Financial Market Volatility - Global financial markets are experiencing increased volatility due to economic and political uncertainties, which may exacerbate capital flow fluctuations in China [5] - Financial sanctions and restrictions on capital markets are making it more difficult for Chinese companies to secure financing [5] Group 4: Fiscal Policy Response - A more proactive fiscal policy is deemed essential for enhancing the certainty of high-quality economic development in response to external shocks [6] - The Chinese government has a relatively low debt-to-GDP ratio of 67.5%, providing significant room for fiscal policy expansion compared to G20 and G7 countries [8] Group 5: Implementation of Fiscal Policies - The focus of fiscal policy should be on enhancing social welfare, promoting consumption, and increasing investment efficiency to stimulate domestic demand [9] - Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is crucial for effective macroeconomic management, ensuring that government investments lead to increased social investments [11]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting highlighted the challenges faced by international trade and economic order, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to stabilize the economy and maintain trade resilience [1] Group 1: Economic Challenges - The international economic and trade order is experiencing severe shocks, leading to increased fragmentation of supply chains and rising trade barriers [1] - These challenges are significantly impacting economic development across countries [1] Group 2: Policy Responses - In response to external shocks, the government is enhancing macroeconomic policy adjustments, implementing more proactive fiscal policies, and adopting moderately loose monetary policies [1] - The economy has shown signs of recovery this year, particularly in foreign trade, which has maintained strong resilience [1] Group 3: Future Measures - The government is preparing to introduce measures to stabilize employment and the economy, while also researching new policy tools, including unconventional measures, to be deployed as needed based on changing circumstances [1] - There is confidence in the ability to sustain positive economic momentum [1]

每经记者｜刘明涛 每经编辑｜彭水萍 随着经济稳定，龙头上市公司经营趋于稳定，5月以来，A股核心资产持续走强，股指整体保持反弹趋势。本周，每经品牌100指数继续在1100点附近进行调 整，截至5月23日收盘，每经品牌100指数周跌0.03%，以1096.38点报收。 港股成分股涨幅靠前 本周受益于经济数据持续表现出韧性以及年内首次LPR下调等利好因素，沪指一度走出三连阳，然而市场后续未能延续上行趋势，周四、周五有所回落。从 周K线来看，上证指数周跌0.57%，深证成指周跌0.46%，创业板指和科创50指数跌幅较大，周跌0.88%和1.47%。相较A股主要宽基指数，每经品牌100指数 表现相对抗跌，周跌0.03%，以1096.38点报收。 从成分股表现来看，港股市场成分股表现更优。东方海外国际、中国通信服务以及美团周涨幅分别达到6.92%、4.31%以及4.19%，小米集团、吉利汽车以及 华润医药周涨幅则在3%左右。而顺丰控股、比亚迪、中信银行、长安汽车、上海电气以及中远海控周涨幅也在3%以上。 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 周涨跌幅 (％) | 周市値 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...