Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the **U.S. economy** and **China's trade dynamics**, particularly in relation to the **Belt and Road Initiative** and the impact of U.S. fiscal policies on global capital expenditure cycles. U.S. Economic Insights - U.S. fiscal policy is experiencing cyclical expansion, particularly during the third to sixth years of a presidential term, significantly influencing global capital expenditure cycles and indirectly affecting the global economy through domestic industry and U.S. stock performance [1][4] - Post-pandemic, U.S. consumer spending has reached historical highs, while the savings rate has dropped to historical lows, indicating a close relationship between personal consumption expenditures, fiscal policy, and stock market performance, suggesting a potential economic recession starting in 2027-2028 [1][6] - Employment in private education, healthcare services, leisure, and hospitality has significantly increased, while manufacturing and mining sectors have contracted, reflecting structural shocks from the pandemic and advancements in artificial intelligence [1][8][9] - The U.S. stock market is expected to have upward momentum before the midterm elections, but a significant downturn is anticipated between 2027 and 2030, coinciding with structural employment issues leading to a negative feedback loop in the economy [1][10] China Trade Dynamics - As of May 2025, exports to Belt and Road countries accounted for half of China's total exports, with growth rates significantly outpacing those to non-Belt and Road countries, highlighting the increasing support of the Belt and Road strategy for China's foreign trade [3][13] - In the first five months of 2025, China's export share slightly increased from 13.9% to 14.0%, with expectations of exceeding 14% for the entire year despite challenges such as U.S. tariffs [12] - The July 2025 import and export data showed strong performance, with exports reaching $321.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and imports at $223.54 billion, up 4.1% [14] - Key contributors to China's export growth include electromechanical products and high-tech products, with integrated circuits experiencing a 29.2% year-on-year increase in July, driven by global AI demand [16] Employment Trends in the U.S. - The U.S. unemployment rate has shown a slight increase compared to 2022, indicating potential recession signs, but the overall economic condition remains stable, suggesting a recession may not occur until 2027-2028 [7] - Employment growth has been notable in private education and healthcare sectors due to increased demand post-pandemic, while manufacturing and mining sectors have faced declines due to structural changes [8][9] Future Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to maintain strength through 2026, with a significant downturn anticipated post-2027, emphasizing the importance of the current trading window [10] - China's trade performance is expected to face challenges in the second half of the year due to high base effects from the previous year, but the Belt and Road Initiative may continue to provide support [18] Additional Insights - Traditional export categories such as textiles, bags, and clothing have shown poor performance, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [19] - The U.S. continues to exert a drag on China's exports, while ASEAN and EU countries provide substantial support, with July exports to ASEAN and the EU growing by 16.6% and 9.24%, respectively [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the inter - bank liquidity presented a pattern of "stable and loose, low - level and low - volatility, and policy support". Seasonal loosening was dominant, and large - scale open - market maturities were the main disturbance, but the loose pattern remained. The central bank actively provided support, and the synergy between fiscal and monetary policies was enhanced. The net lending scale of large - scale banks recovered rapidly, and the supply of liquidity was relatively abundant. The money market rates showed low - level and low - volatility characteristics, approaching a stage low [1]. - The seemingly "unexpected" launch of the repurchase with bond ownership transfer was actually in line with the requirements of "maintaining abundant liquidity in monetary policy" and "synergistic efforts of fiscal and monetary policies". Whether the treasury bond trading operation will be restarted this month is also worth looking forward to. Next week, although there will be more disturbances, the overall money market still has support, but the volatility may increase, and the upward pressure on money market rates is controllable, while the downward space awaits the injection of incremental liquidity [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Funds Rate Reaches a Stage Low - At the beginning of the month, funds seasonally loosened. Although there were large - scale open - market maturities, the loose pattern of the money market remained. The launch of the 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase with bond ownership transfer on August 8 showed the central bank's intention to support and the synergy between fiscal and monetary policies. The net lending scale of large - scale banks quickly recovered to over 4 trillion yuan. The primary - market prices of certificates of deposit (CDs) remained stable, and the secondary - market prices declined [11]. - The money market rates fluctuated at a low level throughout the week, possibly reaching a stage low. DR001 approached 1.3%. After the launch of the repurchase with bond ownership transfer on August 8, the money market rates declined further, and the fluctuation range narrowed significantly compared with the previous week [12]. - The seemingly "unexpected" launch of the repurchase with bond ownership transfer was in line with policy requirements. It is a quantity - based monetary policy tool, and its signal significance lies more in the operation scale than in the operation price. Whether the treasury bond trading operation will be restarted this month is worth anticipating [21][23]. - Although there may be resonance of disturbances in the money market in mid - August, with the central bank's pre - emptive support and the possible marginal mitigation of tax payment pressure, the fluctuations will be more controllable. The money market rates may have reached a stage low, and further downward movement depends on the injection of incremental liquidity. How the central bank operates and whether the net lending scale of large - scale banks can be maintained are important observation factors [24]. 3.2. Open Market: Next Week's Maturity Scale Drops Slightly but Still Exceeds One Trillion Yuan - From August 4 to August 8, the open - market net injection was 163.5 billion yuan, an increase compared with the previous week. Among them, 7 - day reverse repurchase injections totaled 1.1267 trillion yuan, with maturities of 1.6632 trillion yuan, and 3 - month repurchase with bond ownership transfer injections totaled 700 billion yuan. From August 11 to August 15, the open - market maturities will be 1.1267 trillion yuan [3][31]. - The central bank withdrew the cross - month liquidity, but the stable trend of funds remained. The balance of reverse repurchases continued to decline but was still above the seasonal level. As of August 8, the balance of reverse repurchases was 1.1267 trillion yuan, a decrease of 536.5 billion yuan compared with August 1 [33]. 3.3. Government Bonds: Next Week's Issuance Scale Increases - This week, the net payment of government bonds was 370.6 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance of government bonds is 351.4 billion yuan, including 260 billion yuan of treasury bonds and 91.4 billion yuan of local government bonds. The net payment of treasury bonds will be 372.4 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds will be 37.7 billion yuan [42]. 3.4. Excess Reserve Tracking and Forecast - It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in August 2025 will be about 0.90%, a month - on - month decrease of about 0.07 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.52 percentage points. It is predicted that the excess reserves at the end of July will be about 3.0668 trillion yuan. From August 4 to August 8, the open - market net injection was 163.5 billion yuan, the net payment of government bonds was 370.6 billion yuan, the predicted fiscal revenue - expenditure gap was - 120 billion yuan, and the reserve requirement was 26.2 billion yuan [50][51]. 3.5. Money Market: DR001 Approaches 1.3% - As of August 8, compared with August 1, DR001 decreased by 0.23 basis points to 1.31%, DR007 increased by 0.09 basis points to 1.43%, R001 decreased by 1.32 basis points to 1.34%, and R007 decreased by 3.26 basis points to 1.45% [53]. - The overnight and 7 - day SHIBOR rates decreased by 5.65 and 8.11 basis points respectively compared with the previous week to 1.31% and 1.44%. The overnight and 7 - day CNH HIBOR rates increased by 8.29 and 5.23 basis points respectively compared with the previous week to 1.22% and 1.45% [58]. - The weekly average rates of FR007S1Y and FR007S5Y decreased by 0.98 and 2.23 basis points respectively compared with the previous week to 1.52% and 1.57%. The weekly average rates of six - month national - share transfer discount and six - month city - commercial transfer discount increased by 0.1 percentage points respectively compared with the previous week to 0.68% and 0.79% [61]. - The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 8.1091 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.3925 trillion yuan compared with the period from July 28 to August 1. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's new pledged national debt repurchase was 2.186 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.97 billion yuan compared with the period from July 28 to August 1 [63]. 3.6. Certificates of Deposit 3.6.1. Primary Market: Next Week's Maturity Scale Approaches One Trillion Yuan - From August 4 to August 8, the total issuance of CDs was 774.7 billion yuan, and the net financing was 190.9 billion yuan, an increase in both issuance scale and net financing compared with the previous week. By issuer, city - commercial banks had the highest issuance scale and net financing. By maturity, 6 - month CDs had the highest issuance scale, and 1 - month CDs had the highest net financing [73]. - The weighted average issuance term of CDs this week was 6.4 months, longer than the previous week's 5.86 months. Among them, the weighted average issuance terms of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city - commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 6.5, 7.4, 6.2, and 6.5 months respectively, with changes of 1.07, 0.69, 0.59, and - 0.08 months compared with the previous week [77]. - In terms of issuance success rate, joint - stock banks had the highest rate. By maturity, 1 - month CDs had the highest issuance success rate. By credit rating, AA - rated CDs had the highest issuance success rate [79]. - Next week, the maturity scale of CDs will be 905 billion yuan, an increase compared with this week. The maturities are mainly concentrated in national - share banks and city - commercial banks, and the terms are mainly concentrated in 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year [83][84]. 3.6.2. Secondary Market: Yields Decline - After the month - end, the seasonal loosening of funds and the large - scale launch of repurchase with bond ownership transfer led to a continuous decline in the secondary - market yields of CDs. The yields of CDs of all maturities and ratings decreased [95][96].

财政部近日发布的数据显示，今年前4个月，全国一般公共预算收入80616亿元，同比下降0.4%， 降幅较一季度收窄0.7个百分点；全国一般公共预算支出93581亿元，同比增长4.6%，完成预算的 31.5%，支出进度为2020年以来同期最快。 1至4月，全国非税收入15060亿元，同比增长7.7%，主要是多渠道盘活资产等带动。4月份，非税 收入增速进一步降至1.7%。对此，温彬表示，今年以来，非税收入增速持续放缓，主要是随着化债资 金落实到位，地方政府财政状况有所好转，对资产盘活的依赖度下降。 国盛证券首席经济学家熊园表示，4月份，一般财政收入增速进一步抬升，税收收入增速由负转 正，四大税种中个税收入改善是主要支撑，其余税种走弱，可能与入库节奏有关。另外，国有资产盘活 较难持续，非税收入增速为去年3月份以来最低水平。 具体到4月份，一般公共预算收入同比增长1.9%，增速较上月加快1.6个百分点。其中，税收收入增 速加快4.1个百分点至1.9%，非税收入增速放缓4.3个百分点至1.7%；一般公共预算支出同比增长5.8%， 增速较上月加快0.1百分点。 中央财经大学教授温来成在接受《金融时报》记者采访时表示，今年前 ...

Core Viewpoint - Long-term government bond yields in China have been declining, with the 30-year yield falling below 2.5%, reflecting expectations of long-term economic growth and inflation, while also being influenced by supply and demand factors [1][2]. Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintains a positive long-term outlook on economic growth, asserting that the fundamental economic conditions remain favorable [1]. - Some institutional investors anticipate a moderate recovery in inflation from low levels, which could support an increase in long-term bond yields as nominal rates adjust to inflation [1]. - The bond market in China has made significant progress, ranking second globally in total size, but still requires improvements in market depth and pricing mechanisms [1]. Group 2 - A noticeable reduction in government bond supply this year may have contributed to the short-term divergence between bond yields and economic expectations [2]. - The PBOC's strong counter-cyclical monetary policy has created a favorable liquidity environment for the stable operation of the bond market [2]. - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds is expected to alleviate the "asset shortage" situation, leading to a potential rebound in long-term bond yields [2]. Group 3 - The PBOC's engagement in secondary market bond trading serves as a liquidity management tool and a reserve for monetary policy [3]. - China's bond market ranks third globally, with improved liquidity facilitating the PBOC's operations in the secondary market [3]. - Unlike developed economies that resorted to large-scale bond purchases for monetary policy goals, China continues to implement normal monetary policy, distinguishing its approach from quantitative easing (QE) practices [3].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of 1 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds in 2024 is significant for funding major projects, stabilizing economic growth expectations, and enhancing market confidence [1][2][3]. Group 1: Issuance Details - The third issuance of the 2024 ultra-long-term special government bonds was completed on November 15, with a face value of 50 billion yuan and an annual yield of 2.27% [1]. - A total of 22 issuances of ultra-long-term special government bonds occurred this year, with 3,000 billion yuan for 20-year bonds, 6,000 billion yuan for 30-year bonds, and 1,000 billion yuan for 50-year bonds [2]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The issuance of these bonds is aimed at supporting national strategic implementations and key areas such as infrastructure and technological innovation, effectively driving domestic demand and promoting high-quality development [3][5]. - The bonds help optimize the debt structure, enhance the central government's leverage, and reduce local government debt risks, thereby alleviating the investment burden on local governments [2][3]. Group 3: Future Plans - The government plans to continue issuing ultra-long-term special government bonds in 2025 to support major national strategies and enhance competitiveness and security [5]. - The ongoing issuance is expected to further stabilize economic growth and bolster international market confidence in the Chinese economy [5].

截至 6 月，高盛 proprietary 的广义财政赤字（AFD）指标按 12 个月移动平均计算为 GDP 的 11.3%（2024 年为 10.6%），这表明今年以来财政政策已成为温和的增长推动力，而去年则是增长拖 累。 香港时间8月6日下午，高盛发布亚洲宏观经济研究指出，鉴于今年迄今为止出口增长强于预期，以及当 前 "被动应对式"（而非 "先发制人式"）的宽松模式，中国的政策宽松一直是适度、有针对性且具有耐 心的。 7 月政治局会议表明，刺激的紧迫性有所下降，但高盛认为，若增长阻力加大，政策制定者仍为进一步 的宽松举措留有空间。 在这份报告中，高盛回顾了中国上半年的财政状况，评估了下半年可用的财政空间，重新审视今年剩余 时间的财政政策展望，并更新高盛对固定资产投资（FAI）的预测。 部分预算外融资渠道持续疲软 与去年相比，上半年财政状况有所改善 得益于去年年底推出的 10 万亿元地方政府债务化解计划以及今年的扩张性预算，中国的财政状况显著 改善。上半年，预算内财政支出同比增长 3.4%，持续高于财政收入（上半年同比下降 0.3%）。受土地 出让收入下滑的拖累，政府性基金收入依然低迷，今年上半年同比进一步 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue and expenditure in the second half of the year are under pressure, but the probability of additional deficits is low. The government is expected to utilize fiscal policy reserves to cover the revenue gap caused by childcare and elderly service subsidies [1][5][11]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Analysis - In the first half of the year, the national fiscal revenue and expenditure deviated slightly from the initial budget, with revenue falling short by 463 billion yuan and expenditure by 1309 billion yuan for the general public budget [2][6]. - The central government's general public budget revenue decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 6.9%. Local governments showed a revenue increase of 3.0% and expenditure increase of 3.7% [3][6]. - For the second half of the year, the expected year-on-year growth rates for the general public budget are -4.5% for revenue and 1.5% for expenditure, leading to a projected revenue shortfall of 516.6 billion yuan and an expenditure shortfall of 547.2 billion yuan compared to the budget [5][11]. Budget Execution and Adjustments - Historically, the completion rate for the general public budget has been over 98%, and significant deviations typically necessitate budget adjustments or additional deficits. However, the flexibility of the special fund budget allows for a completion rate of 80%-90% without strict requirements [2][5]. - The government plans to cover the expected 1200 billion yuan revenue gap from subsidies without increasing the budget by utilizing reserves, including the budget stabilization fund and profits from central financial enterprises [11][12]. Central Financial Enterprises' Role - The profits from central financial enterprises are crucial for offsetting revenue shortfalls. In 2024, these enterprises contributed significantly to the budget, with non-tax revenue showing substantial increases in late 2024 [7][12]. - The central budget stabilization fund had a balance of 2739.22 billion yuan at the end of 2024, with plans to allocate 1000 billion yuan in 2025, leaving a remaining balance of 1739.22 billion yuan [12].

Group 1 - The current economic growth faces challenges, and fiscal policy will focus on more proactive measures to support key areas, including optimizing expenditure structure and enhancing social welfare [1] - In the first half of the year, social security and employment, education, and health expenditures grew by 9.2%, 5.9%, and 4.3% respectively, all exceeding the general public budget expenditure growth of 3.4% [2] - The issuance of local government bonds reached 2.6 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, supporting major project construction [3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance plans to accelerate the issuance and utilization of government bonds, with a focus on special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to stabilize investment and promote growth [3] - By the end of July, 2.78 trillion yuan of new special bonds had been issued, accounting for 63% of the annual quota, indicating a faster-than-usual issuance pace [3] - The Ministry of Finance aims to complete the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to ensure the implementation of key projects [3] Group 3 - The government is actively working on replacing local government hidden debts, with 1.8 trillion yuan of the 2 trillion yuan replacement bonds for 2025 already issued by June [4] - There is a strong regulatory stance against new hidden debts, with a focus on the orderly exit of local financing platforms to mitigate systemic risks [4][5] - The government emphasizes a market-oriented transformation of financing platforms, gradually pushing for their exit from local government financing roles [5]

全面释放财政政策效力，还需着力促进物价合理回升。同时，做好政策储备，必要时及时出台增量政 策，保障下半年财政支出强度。 二是财政支出向民生倾斜。7月以来，国家育儿补贴实施方案、逐步推行免费学前教育、向失能老年人 发放养老服务消费补贴、财政更大力度支持稳就业等政策措施出台，充分表明财政支出更加注重民生， 更多资金资源将"投资于人"。 财政支出端也体现了上述特征。上半年，一般公共预算支出分项中，社会保障和就业、教育、卫生健康 三大民生类支出增速分别达到9.2%、5.9%、4.3%，均高于总体3.4%的增速，合计占一般公共预算支出 的比重达到40.3%，创2019年以来同期新高；相比之下，农林水事务、城乡社区事务、交通运输三大基 建类的支出增速分别只有-7.8%、-4.2%、-3.1%，合计占比降至18.6%的多年同期低点。 与此同时，上半年，侧重民生兜底、政府运行的一般国债（52%）、地方一般债（57%）发行进度快于 侧重项目建设的地方专项债（49%），也一定程度反映了财政支出向民生倾斜的政策取向。 7月30日，中央政治局会议指出"宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力""在保障改善民生中扩大消费需求"。 此前，国家育儿补 ...

Group 1 - In July, the issuance of new special bonds reached 616.936 billion yuan, an increase of 89.842 billion yuan from the previous month, marking a new high for the year [1] - In the first half of the year, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds amounted to 2.16 trillion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 45%, with a noticeable acceleration in the pace of issuance [3] - The acceleration of new special bond issuance is crucial for providing sufficient funding for major project construction, with over 1.6 trillion yuan available for use from August to December [4] Group 2 - The new special bond issuance will significantly support infrastructure investment, with funds primarily directed towards municipal and industrial park infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, and public services [5] - The timely availability of special bond funds helps alleviate the funding pressure on infrastructure projects, playing an important role in stabilizing investment and growth [5] - The acceleration of new special bond issuance is expected to provide strong support for the rebound of infrastructure investment growth in the second half of the year, benefiting related industries such as steel, cement, and construction machinery [5]