Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Currently, caustic soda is in the off - season for demand, with insufficient price increase momentum, but is strongly supported by costs due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine. There are still expectations for peak - season demand in the future, so it is advisable to participate in the 10 - 1 positive spread of the monthly difference [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 09 contract is 2484, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 840, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2625, and the basis is 141 [1] Spot News - Based on the Shandong region, the market price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable, with local areas holding steady and observing. High - concentration caustic soda has low inventory supported by previous orders, but high - price sales are poor after the price increase. The high - price sales of low - concentration caustic soda have slowed down, and the sales performance of each factory varies, with inventory increasing or decreasing [2] Market Condition Analysis - Macroeconomically, in the short term, the overall sentiment of domestic commodities is strong due to the anti - involution effect, while externally, attention should be paid to the risk that the trade war in August may exceed expectations. In the context of anti - inflation in the US and anti - deflation in China, caustic soda is currently in a volatile market [3] - From a fundamental perspective, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda in July decreased significantly compared to June, with maintenance mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China. The new production capacity of caustic soda from July to August may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure will gradually increase. However, manufacturers have over - sold in exports, and the pressure of new production capacity is basically digested by exports [3] - On the demand side, it is the off - season for non - aluminum demand, with weak support. The inventory of caustic soda in alumina is neutral, and the export direction has strong support, with a strong willingness to replenish inventory at low prices [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, with the range of trend intensity values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 indicates the most bearish and 2 indicates the most bullish [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for LLDPE is "Range-bound oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, due to the influence of anti - involution in China, the overall commodity sentiment is strong, but there is a risk that the trade war may exceed expectations in August. Under the background of anti - inflation in the US and anti - deflation in China, plastics are in a range - bound market for now. The fundamentals of polyethylene have not improved significantly, with increasing supply pressure and weak demand support, so the later trend pressure is still large [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of L2509 futures yesterday was 7215, with a daily change of 0.00%. The trading volume was 181,546 and the open interest decreased by 2617. The 09 - contract basis was - 135 (compared to - 114 the previous day), and the 09 - 01 contract spread was - 20 (compared to - 11 the previous day). The important spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7080, 7160, and 7250 yuan/ton respectively, showing a decline from the previous day [1] Spot News - This week, the domestic PE market prices oscillated and declined. The crude oil market maintained an oscillating trend, and the linear futures were generally weak. The downstream factory orders were limited, the enthusiasm for starting work was low, and the intention to purchase raw materials was weak. The sales of petrochemical and trading companies were blocked, and the overall trading volume was limited despite the price decline [1] Market Condition Analysis - Macroscopically, the short - term domestic commodity sentiment is strong due to anti - involution, while there is a risk of an unexpected trade war in August. The polyethylene fundamentals have not improved. The supply pressure is increasing as the maintenance volume in July will be less than that in June and the new production capacity in the third quarter is expected to be 1.6 million tons. The demand support is weak, and although the inventory was previously low year - on - year, it is gradually accumulating. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 77.79%, a decrease of 1.67% from the previous period, mainly due to more maintenance of existing devices [2] Demand - side Situation - The downstream of polyethylene is still in the off - season, with weak terminal orders and cautious enterprise inventory preparation. The shed film industry is in the traditional off - season, with only a slight increase in the operating rate in some areas. The procurement enthusiasm of agricultural film dealers is not high, and the raw material inventory level is lower than last year. Some food and daily - chemical packaging films have short - term rigid demand support, but the continuous replenishment is insufficient. The operating rates of PE hollow and pipes are lower than the same period last year [3][4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

Group 1 - The Canadian government is implementing measures to limit steel imports from countries like China, which are affected by U.S. tariffs, to protect its domestic industry and employment [1][2][4] - Canada will restrict steel imports from non-free trade agreement countries to half of the 2024 levels, imposing a 50% tariff on any excess [2][4] - The Canadian government has also announced an additional 25% tariff on steel products from all countries outside the U.S., including Chinese steel [2][4] Group 2 - In 2024, Canada's steel imports are projected to exceed $16 billion, with nearly half coming from the U.S. and about 10% from China [4] - Canada has imposed a 25% tariff on nearly $60 billion worth of U.S. goods, including steel and aluminum, in response to U.S. tariffs [4][5] - The Canadian government is reassessing all existing steel trade arrangements in light of ongoing negotiations with the U.S. [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: No rating provided [1] - Asphalt: ★☆★, representing a bias towards an upward trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - International crude oil prices may turn into a volatile and pressured state in July, but there is still a possibility of rising again in August. Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures are weak, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is declining. Asphalt prices are supported by low inventories, and the LPG market is in a weak state with a downward - trending disk [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SG08 contract falling 0.12% intraday. Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 3.859 million barrels, but the unexpected increase in refined oil inventories raised demand concerns. Since May, oil prices have been supported by peak - season procurement expectations, but recently, the spot premium and monthly spread of crude oil have not strengthened further. In July, the negative impact of the trade war on oil prices is greater than the positive impact of geopolitical factors. In August, if the European diesel contradiction persists, the market may rise again [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel - related futures are all weak, with LU falling more deeply. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils has started to decline since mid - July. Under the OPEC+ production - increase path, there is an expectation of increased supply of high - sulfur heavy resources globally. The impact of sanctions on major high - sulfur fuel oil production areas such as Russia and Iran is relatively limited in the short term. The actual incremental effect of the previous pilot project of increasing the deduction ratio of fuel oil consumption tax in China is limited, and demand lacks drivers. FU cracking is expected to maintain a downward trend. The unilateral trend of LU mainly follows crude oil [2] Asphalt - Social inventories have slightly increased, while factory inventories have significantly decreased month - on - month, mainly driven by accelerated inventory reduction in East China. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has slightly increased month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year increase has decreased by 1 percentage point compared to the end of June. Overall, the resilience of asphalt supply increase remains to be observed, demand is still weak but there is a repair expectation, and low inventories still support prices. Today, crude oil has slightly declined, while BU has slightly increased, and cracking has also strengthened [3] LPG - The production - increase pressure in the Middle East persists. Although chemical procurement in the Far East has increased, overseas prices continue to be weak and volatile. Recently, import costs have continued to decline, but the weak prices of terminal products have kept PDH gross profit stable. PDH has continued to add maintenance, and the domestic supply and demand are both weak recently, with the domestic gas price facing downward pressure at the top. Crude oil has declined, and the off - season pattern in summer remains unchanged, with the disk trend being weak and volatile [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On Thursday, most futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined. The spot price index has been rising continuously, indicating that the previous price increase announcements by leading shipping companies are likely to be implemented. However, due to trade - war uncertainties, the demand for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is expected to be weak, and the futures prices fluctuate greatly. The rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures prices to rise in the short term. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data [1] Summary by Relevant Contents Futures Market Data - EC2510, the main contract, closed down 4.28%, and the far - month contracts closed down between 1 - 3%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index is 2421.94, up 163.9 points from last week, a 7.3% week - on - week increase. The EC main contract closed at 2164.500, up 16.0; the EC secondary main contract closed at 1581.3, down 70.70. The EC2508 - EC2510 spread increased by 28.30, and the EC2508 - EC2512 spread was 583.20, up 14.20. The EC contract basis was 257.44, down 11.50. The EC main contract open interest was 16587, down 2160 [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly) increased by 163.90, SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly) was 1266.59, down 291.18. SCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) decreased by 30.20, and container ship capacity (in ten thousand TEUs) was 1733.29, down 0.25. CCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) decreased by 29.29, CCFI (European Line) (weekly) was 1726.41, up 32.11. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) decreased by 40.00, the Panamax Freight Index (daily) was 1967.00, up 23.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 14788.00, down 95.00, and that of Capesize ships was 18645.00, up 1736.00 [1] Industry News - Trump said that drug tariffs may be introduced by the end of the month, and the timeline for chip tariffs is similar but less complex. He is studying 5 - 6 trade agreements, and 2 - 3 agreements may be reached before August 1. He may impose a unified tariff of about 10% on all small countries and send tariff payment notices to 150 countries. He is negotiating with India and the two sides are close to an agreement. The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that economic activity increased slightly from late May to early July, with high uncertainty and a neutral to slightly pessimistic economic outlook. The US Trade Representative's Office launched a 301 investigation into Brazil's unfair trade practices. Mexican President Cinbaum said Mexico does not accept the so - called "anti - dumping duty" on Mexican tomatoes imposed by the US unilaterally and will take corresponding actions if an agreement on tariffs cannot be reached by August 1 [1] Economic Data - In June, the US S&P Global Composite PMI index dropped slightly from 53 in May to 52.8. Price pressure increased significantly. In May, core PCE increased by 2.7% year - on - year, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 2.6%. Real personal consumption expenditure decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, the largest decline since the beginning of the year, and personal income decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, the largest decline since 2021 [1] Future Outlook - Trump threatens to impose a maximum 30% tariff on EU products starting August 1. China has implemented counter - measures against EU products such as brandy and medical devices. The 7 - 8 month period is a window for countries like Europe, Japan, and Vietnam to renegotiate with the US, with uncertainties remaining [1] Key Data to Focus On - On July 18 at 07:30, Japan's June core CPI annual rate; at 14:00, Germany's June PPI monthly rate; at 22:00, the US July one - year inflation rate expectation preliminary value and the US July University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the EU is preparing to impose tariffs on US services as a response to the US's recent tariff announcements, escalating the trade conflict into the digital services sector [1][2][4] - The EU is considering a potential tariff list that includes fees on digital services, particularly targeting advertising revenue from US tech companies [2][3] - The EU's response is partly driven by the significant trade surplus the US enjoys in services, amounting to approximately $100 billion annually, making it a more vulnerable target for retaliation [3] Group 2 - The trade negotiations between the US and EU are currently at an impasse, with both sides expressing a willingness to retaliate if necessary [4] - EU officials are actively discussing the situation in Washington, indicating that there are still considerable differences between the two parties [4] - The EU is open to accepting a 10% tariff but seeks to reduce the 25% tariff on automobiles and secure guarantees on future exemptions for pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [4]

Group 1 - President Trump indicated that the U.S. may implement previously communicated tariff rates on Japan and is close to reaching a trade agreement with India, while a deal with Europe is also possible [1][2] - The U.S. has reached agreements with Indonesia and is finalizing a deal with Vietnam, which has alleviated market concerns about escalating trade wars, leading to a rise in major U.S. stock indices [1] - Trump announced that tariffs on all imports from Indonesia will be set at 19%, and he plans to impose tariffs of over 10% on smaller countries, potentially affecting over 150 minor trade partners [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods unless a trade agreement is reached, with the tariff set to take effect on August 1 [6][8] - Japan's exports have declined for the second consecutive month, raising concerns about a technical recession, with a notable 11.4% drop in exports to the U.S. [11][12] - The automotive sector is a critical point in U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, with potential tariffs posing a significant risk to Japan's economy, estimated to lose up to 13 trillion yen, which is over 2% of its GDP [12][14]

Group 1 - The EU is preparing a list of potential tariffs and export control measures against the US services sector as a retaliatory action following failed trade negotiations [2][3] - The EU Commission is compiling this list in response to President Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on EU goods starting August 1 [3] - The proposed measures will target not only US tech companies but also include additional actions beyond the existing proposal against $720 billion worth of US imports, which includes tariffs on Boeing aircraft, cars, and bourbon whiskey [3] Group 2 - Barclays economists estimate that if the average tariff rate on EU goods reaches 35%, combined with a 10% retaliatory tariff from Brussels, it could reduce Eurozone output by 0.7 percentage points [4] - This reduction could deplete much of the already limited growth in the Eurozone and may lead the European Central Bank to further lower its deposit rate from the current 2% [4] - A previous estimate from the German Economic Institute suggested that tariffs of 20% to 50% could result in economic losses exceeding €200 billion for Germany by 2028 [4]

Core Insights - The global reliance on China has increased despite a complex international environment, indicating a trend of deeper integration rather than decoupling [1][2] - China's manufacturing value added accounts for over 30% of the global total, maintaining the largest scale for 15 consecutive years, with projections suggesting it could reach 45% by 2030 [1] - The growth of foreign trade is fundamentally linked to a country's productivity, with China's increasing share in global trade reflecting a consensus on its role in global division of labor [1] Trade Performance - In 2021, China's total goods trade reached 39.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, with exports and imports growing by 21.2% and 21.5% respectively [3] - By 2022, the total goods trade value surpassed 40 trillion yuan, reaching 42.07 trillion yuan, a 7.7% increase year-on-year [3] - In 2023, the trade value was 41.76 trillion yuan, showing a modest growth of 0.2%, while projections for 2024 indicate a rise to 43.85 trillion yuan, a 5% increase [3] Product Structure and Innovation - The export of mechanical and electrical products has strengthened, with 2021 exports reaching 12.83 trillion yuan, accounting for 59% of total exports [7] - High-tech product exports grew by 9.2% in 2025, with significant increases in high-end machinery and instruments [7] - The shift from OEM to ODM and customized products reflects an upgrade in China's export product structure, enhancing design and brand capabilities [6][7] Trade Partners and Market Diversification - China has seen a decline in trade with the U.S. while increasing trade with non-U.S. regions, with ASEAN remaining the largest trading partner [11] - The trade with "Belt and Road" countries has outpaced overall growth, accounting for 51.8% of total trade in the first half of the year [11] - The diversification of international markets has made China's trade more resilient amid uncertainties [11] E-commerce and Digital Trade - Cross-border e-commerce imports and exports reached approximately 1.32 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, growing by 5.7% [9] - The share of cross-border e-commerce in total foreign trade has increased from less than 1% in 2015 to 6.2% in 2024, indicating a significant trend towards digital trade [9][10] Future Outlook - Despite challenges from geopolitical tensions and a slowing global economy, China's complete and high-density industrial chain is expected to maintain its competitive edge for at least the next decade [12] - The focus on enhancing product quality and value-added services is crucial for sustaining international competitiveness [13] - The transition from a production-based economy to a consumption-driven one will require addressing internal challenges and finding new growth points [13]

据彭博社7月14日报道，欧盟敲定了一份长达206页的关税反制清单，拟对价值近720亿欧元的美国商品采取行动，跨大西洋贸易关系由此剑拔弩张。与此同 时，欧盟对中国稀土的需求，也让其在这场贸易博弈中处境更为复杂。 然而，在欧盟强硬的表象之下，内部矛盾也逐渐浮现。据欧洲新闻网消息，欧盟最初拟定的制裁规模高达950亿欧元，后因部分成员担忧过度刺激美国，最 终将规模下调了230亿欧元。在是否对美采取强硬措施的问题上，欧盟内部存在不同声音，部分成员希望通过让步换取特朗普降低关税，毕竟在安全防务方 面，欧盟诸多成员对美国存在高度依赖。 在与美国的贸易摩擦不断升级之际，欧盟对中国稀土的需求使其不得不将目光投向东方。欧盟的新能源、高端制造等产业严重依赖中国稀土，相关数据显 示，欧盟对中国稀土的依赖度超过90%。如今，在贸易战的压力下，欧盟愈发意识到稀土供应稳定的重要性。据悉，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩计划访华，其 中一个重要目的便是希望中国在稀土出口管制方面对欧盟放宽限制。 美欧之间的贸易冲突，已然对全球供应链产生了显著冲击。欧美作为全球两大重要经济体，供应链联系紧密，相互之间的关税战，使得依赖欧美供应链的产 业遭受重创。以德国汽 ...