1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Short - term price trends are volatile, and market fluctuations increase. US economic data and policy decisions influence its short - term rise and fall [14][15]. - Stock Index Futures: A - shares continue to rise with increased trading volume, and the next stage of incremental policies will determine whether market risk appetite can be further enhanced [2]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Bullish in July, but the probability of a trending market is not high. It is recommended to use a grid strategy and continue to hold the curve - steepening strategy [29]. - Steel: Steel prices are oscillating. While spot fundamentals are not under significant pressure, there are still medium - and long - term risks in external demand, so caution is advised regarding the height of the steel price rebound [4]. - Copper: Macro factors support copper prices, and short - term prices are likely to oscillate strongly due to repeated tariff expectations and increased LME squeeze - out expectations [5]. - Crude Oil: Prices are oscillating strongly, waiting for the results of the OPEC+ weekend meeting [6]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - News: Trump will not extend the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline; the US June ISM manufacturing PMI is 49; Powell cannot determine if a July rate cut is too early [12][13][14]. - Review: Gold prices rebound due to the weakening of the US dollar index, but short - term upward momentum is insufficient. The decision on a July rate cut depends on the June non - farm payroll report and inflation data [14]. - Investment Advice: Short - term price trends are volatile, and market fluctuations increase [15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - News: Powell expects tariffs to affect inflation this summer; the US Senate passes Trump's tax reform bill; Trump denies extending the tariff deadline [16][17][19]. - Review: Market risk appetite cools, and the US dollar index remains low in the short term [19]. - Investment Advice: The US dollar remains weak in the short term [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - News: US June manufacturing activity is slightly better than expected; the number of job vacancies unexpectedly rises; Powell says tariffs will affect prices this summer [21][22][23]. - Review: The US economy shows resilience, and the market continues to wait for non - farm data. There are signs of overheating in market sentiment [23]. - Investment Advice: Be aware of the risk of a market correction [23]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - News: The added value of above - scale electronic information manufacturing from January to May increases by 11.1% year - on - year; the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting emphasizes regulating low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises [24][25]. - Review: A - shares continue to rise with increased trading volume, and the next stage of incremental policies will determine market risk appetite [26]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - News: The Caixin PMI in June is 50.4; the central bank conducts 131 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [28][29]. - Review: Bullish in July, but the probability of a trending market is not high. It is recommended to use a grid strategy and continue to hold the curve - steepening strategy [29]. - Investment Advice: Long positions can be held, and it is advisable to pay attention to the strategy of buying on dips [30]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - News: The US processed 203.7 million bushels of soybeans in May [31]. - Review: The market is calm. Brazilian exports are expected to decline in June, and domestic downstream transactions are dull [32]. - Investment Advice: Short - term futures prices continue to oscillate. Pay attention to weather in US soybean - growing areas and Sino - US relations [33]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - News: Malaysia's palm oil production in June decreased by 0.65% month - on - month; Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased by 53% year - on - year [34][35]. - Review: The oil market continues to oscillate. Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to decline slightly in June, and Indonesian exports are expected to remain high in June [35]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to production growth in producing areas and restocking in consuming areas. Also, watch the results of the US July 8 hearing [35]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - News: Only 3 sugar mills of Guangxi Nanhua have not cleared their inventories; the expected delivery volume of ICE July raw sugar is the lowest since 2014; sugar production in central - southern Brazil in the first half of June decreased by 22% year - on - year [36][37][38]. - Review: Sugar production in central - southern Brazil decreased due to rain, and there are uncertainties in future sugar production [38]. - Investment Advice: The external market is weak, which will drag down the domestic market, but domestic spot prices are firm. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [39]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - News: Starch sugar prices are stable, with different trends in different varieties [40]. - Review: Starch enterprises are still in the red, and starch production is expected to gradually reduce to reduce inventory. Downstream demand may increase the operating rate of starch sugar [40]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to wait and see due to complex influencing factors on the CS - C spread [41]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - News: The total land acquisition amount of key real - estate enterprises in the first half of the year increased by 33.3% year - on - year; China's heavy - truck sales in June increased by 30% year - on - year [42][43]. - Review: Steel prices are oscillating, with no significant pressure on the spot market, but medium - and long - term external demand risks remain [44]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to use a rebound - hedging strategy for the spot market [45]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - News: The auction of imported corn starts, with a high成交 rate and premium [45]. - Review: The auction reflects a shortage of spot inventory. If the balance sheet is as expected, the auction volume may not reverse the supply - demand situation [45]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts. When the new - crop production situation is clearer, consider shorting the November and January contracts [45]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - News: The price of steam coal in northern ports is temporarily stable, and terminal inventory is relatively abundant [46]. - Review: High - temperature power consumption eases coal prices in the short term, and prices are expected to remain stable [46]. - Investment Advice: Coal prices are expected to remain stable in the short term due to high - temperature power consumption [46]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - News: The mining plan of the Sino Iron project is unconditionally approved [47][48]. - Review: Iron ore prices continue to oscillate weakly, with seasonal pressure on the fundamentals but no prominent contradictions [48]. - Investment Advice: Iron ore prices are expected to continue weak oscillations in July [48]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - News: The government emphasizes governing low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises [49]. - Review: The polysilicon fundamentals are not optimistic, but there have been significant policy changes recently [50]. - Investment Advice: Before leading enterprises jointly cut production, the fundamentals are bearish. It is recommended to continue holding the PS2508 - 2509 long - spread position [50]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - News: The production schedule of silicone continues to strengthen [51]. - Review: There are production changes in different regions, and the upper space of the disk is limited [51][52]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [52]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - News: Semi - solid batteries are mass - applied in electric light trucks, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will accelerate the research and development of related varieties [53][54]. - Review: The demand in July is better than expected, driving the price to rise [54]. - Investment Advice: Short - term lithium prices are expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to avoid short positions or move them to LC2511 and pay attention to buying on dips. Also, consider the LC2509 - LC2511 long - spread position [54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - News: Russia's exports of basic metals to China have increased significantly; a new copper company is established; Chile's copper production in May increased month - on - month [55][57][58]. - Review: Macro factors support copper prices, and short - term prices are likely to oscillate strongly [58]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to take a bullish approach unilaterally and wait and see for arbitrage [59]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - News: Shanghai launches a subsidy program for electric bicycle trade - ins; battery prices are raised [60][61]. - Review: The short - term supply and demand are weak, but there is an expectation of strong supply and demand in the long term, and the price may rise [62][63]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to buying on dips and potential Sell Put opportunities. Wait and see for the C - structure and consider external - internal reverse arbitrage [63]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - News: The LME zinc spread is at a discount; a zinc smelter strike ends; Peru's zinc concentrate production increased in April [63][64]. - Review: Zinc prices oscillate downward. Although the short - term macro sentiment is strong, the medium - term fundamentals are expected to be in surplus [64]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see unilaterally, consider positive arbitrage for spreads, and maintain the external - internal positive arbitrage idea in the medium term [64]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - News: Indonesia proposes an investment plan for nickel mines to the US [65]. - Review: LME and SHFE inventories decrease. The shortage of nickel ore eases, and raw material cost support weakens [66]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds as the medium - term fundamentals are bearish [67]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - News: API US crude oil inventories increase [68]. - Review: Oil prices oscillate strongly, waiting for the results of the OPEC+ meeting [68]. - Investment Advice: Short - term price oscillations are expected within a range [69]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - News: Sinopec lowers the listing price of pure benzene [70]. - Review: The short - term supply - demand structure of pure benzene is average, and the supply - demand of styrene is expected to weaken in the future [70][71]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to the release rhythm of new pure benzene capacity, and price fluctuations depend on the oil end and supply disruptions [71]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - News: The price of caustic soda in Shandong decreases, and the supply and demand situation is not optimistic [72][73]. - Review: The caustic soda market is oversupplied, and prices may continue to decline [73][74]. - Investment Advice: The rebound of the futures price is limited as the spot price decline has not ended [74]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - News: Bottle chip factory export prices are mostly stable, and some are slightly lowered [75]. - Review: Bottle chip factories plan to cut production in July, and if implemented, inventory pressure will be relieved [77][78]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the bottle chip processing margin by buying on dips [78]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - News: The price of imported wood pulp continues to decline [78]. - Review: The fundamentals of pulp are weak, and the market is expected to oscillate [78][79]. - Investment Advice: The market is expected to oscillate as the fundamentals remain weak despite the adjustment of deliverable pulp varieties [79]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - News: The price of PVC powder in the domestic market decreases [80]. - Review: PVC futures oscillate after falling, and the short - term fundamentals change little [80]. - Investment Advice: The market is expected to oscillate as the short - term fundamentals change little [80]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - News: The closing price of CEA on July 1 decreases, and the carbon market enables one - way auction trading [81][82]. - Review: One - way auction trading improves market efficiency and liquidity [82]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to wait and see due to large short - term fluctuations [82].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum Oxide [1] - Bearish: Zinc (for short - term short - selling opportunity), Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil (if no significant reduction in US soybean acreage), Pulp, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, PVC, LPG [1] - Neutral: Treasury Bonds, Gold, Silver, Zinc (in general), Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Polycrystalline Silicon, Rebar, Iron Ore, Silicon Iron, Glass, Coking Coal, Coke, Canola Oil, Cotton, Corn, Bean Meal (MO9), Logs, Pig Futures, PTA, Styrene, Other Chemicals [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the market is mainly driven by sentiment and liquidity, and it's necessary to pay attention to macro - incremental information for index direction guidance. The asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The overall macro sentiment has improved, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen. Attention should be paid to tariff - related progress and domestic and foreign economic data changes [1]. - For different commodities, their price trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, macro policies, and international relations. For example, the supply recovery expectation of some metals is strong, while the demand shows signs of weakening, but the macro - sentiment improvement leads to price rebounds [1]. Group 3: Summaries by Industry Macro - Financial - Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate as the asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate. Gold may be under short - term pressure due to improved market risk preference, but high tariff uncertainty prevents continuous decline. Silver is mainly in short - term oscillation [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper, aluminum, and aluminum oxide are expected to be bullish in the short - term due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, improved market risk preference, and low inventory levels [1]. - Zinc price rebounds under improved macro - sentiment, but there is an opportunity to short at the high - rebound level due to strong supply - recovery expectation and weakening demand [1]. - Nickel price rebounds from the short - term bottom but has limited upward space. There is still pressure from primary nickel oversupply in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term interval operation and short - selling hedging on rebounds are recommended [1]. - Stainless steel futures oscillate and rebound in the short - term, but the sustainability remains to be observed. There is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - Tin price rebounds under improved macro - sentiment, and attention should be paid to the import situation of Wa State tin ore [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate. The supply - demand pattern of rebar is loose, and there is no upward price - driving force. For iron ore, there is an expectation of iron - water peak, and the supply may increase in June [1]. - Silicon iron price is expected to oscillate with weak supply - demand and approaching the off - season [1]. - Glass price is expected to oscillate weakly as the supply - surplus concern resurfaces, and the terminal demand is weak [1]. - Coking coal and coke prices are bearish. In the context of over - capacity, the opportunity of futures premium for short - selling hedging should be grasped [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil price is expected to decline as the supply is strong, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating after the stagnation or decline of crude oil [1]. - Rapeseed oil price is expected to be bearish if the USDA report does not significantly reduce the US soybean acreage [1]. - Canola oil price is expected to oscillate before the result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed is announced [1]. - Cotton price is expected to oscillate weakly. There are short - term disturbances in the US cotton market, and the domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season [1]. - Sugar production in Brazil's 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - Corn price is expected to oscillate in the short - term and a short - selling strategy on far - month contracts is recommended after the production situation is clearer [1]. - Bean meal (MO9) is expected to oscillate. There is an expectation of import - cost increase in the fourth quarter, and long - position opportunities at low prices for the November and January contracts are recommended [1]. - Pulp price is bearish due to the decline in foreign - market quotes, increased shipments, and weak domestic demand [1]. - Log price is expected to be weak as it is in the off - season and the supply decline is limited despite the foreign - market price increase [1]. - Pig futures are expected to be stable. Although the live - pig inventory is being repaired and the slaughter weight is increasing, the short - term spot is less affected by slaughter, and the decline is limited [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil prices are bearish as the Middle - East geopolitical situation cools down, OPEC+ may continue to increase production, and the long - term supply - demand tends to be loose [1]. - Asphalt price is affected by cost drag, possible increase in Shandong's consumption - tax refund, and slow demand recovery [1]. - Natural rubber price is affected by weakening downstream demand, strong supply - release expectation, and slightly increased inventory [1]. - BR rubber price is expected to be weak in the short - term. The BR premium has been withdrawn, the synthetic - rubber fundamentals are under pressure, and the factory - ex price of butadiene rubber has been lowered [1]. - PTA price is expected to oscillate. The basis continues to weaken, the Northeast PX device maintenance is postponed, and the overseas PX device maintenance leads to a relatively strong PX performance [1]. - Styrene price: The device load has recovered, the inventory is concentrated, and the basis has strengthened significantly [1]. - Other chemicals such as PVC, caustic soda, and LPG are expected to be bearish. PVC is affected by the end of maintenance, new - device production, and the seasonal off - season. LPG has downward space due to factors such as geopolitical - situation mitigation, seasonal off - season, and increased inflow of low - price foreign goods [1]. Other - It is expected that the freight rate will reach the peak in mid - to - early July, showing an arc - top trend in July and August, with the peak - reaching time advanced. The shipping capacity deployment will be sufficient in the following weeks [1].

Macro News - Trump stated that there is no need to extend the deadline and will assign tax rates to various countries [2] - Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Japan due to its reluctance to import American rice [2] - The EU is reportedly willing to accept the US "benchmark tariff" but seeks exemptions for key industries [2] - Canada has made concessions by canceling the digital services tax, and trade negotiations between the US and Canada will resume with the aim of reaching an agreement by July 21 [2] - Bessent anticipates the signing of a series of new trade agreements, stating that the current issuance of long-term bonds is meaningless, and stablecoin legislation may be introduced in mid-July [2] - Despite Republican senators managing to gather votes to initiate debate, the final passage of the bill remains uncertain, with concerns over its potential massive debt scale [2] - Musk criticized the bill as "absurd and destructive," highlighting divisions between hardliners and moderates within the party [2] Institutional Views - Precious metal prices remained volatile in the previous trading day, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.83% to $3315.00 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell by 0.11% to $36.33 per ounce [4] - Recent US economic data exceeded expectations, with inflation data slightly higher than anticipated, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite, which negatively impacted precious metal prices [4] - The de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, has also contributed to reduced demand for safe-haven assets [4] - Future price movements of precious metals will be closely monitored in relation to Federal Reserve policy changes [4] - The projected trading range for Comex gold is between $3200 and $3400 per ounce, while the trading range for Shanghai gold is between 750 and 790 yuan per gram [4] - The projected trading range for Comex silver is between $34 and $37 per ounce, and for Shanghai silver, it is between 8500 and 9200 yuan per kilogram [4]

Group 1 - The external environment is marginally improving, with a rebound in domestic market risk appetite. Recent international situations have shown improvement, leading to an increase in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has driven a general rebound in global capital markets. The domestic market has also seen a notable recovery in risk appetite, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year and the Shenzhen Component Index rebounding as well [1] - The two markets experienced fluctuations with a slight decrease in trading volume. On Monday, both markets opened slightly lower but gradually rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing near its daily high and recovering its five-day moving average. The Shenzhen Component Index continued to rebound, outperforming the Shanghai market recently. The trading volume was around 1.4 trillion yuan, a decrease from the previous Friday. On a microstructural level, there were more gainers than losers, with a significant number of stocks hitting the daily limit up. The main market hotspots were concentrated in the defense, military, and TMT sectors, with small-cap and technology styles leading in gains [1] - The market rhythm indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the small trading range from May and June, moving to a higher level. The index has surpassed the previous trading range and achieved a new high for the year. However, there remains strong technical resistance in the dense trading area from the fourth quarter of last year, and without substantial positive information, it is expected to be challenging to break through upward in one go [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various commodities having different trends. Some commodities are expected to be volatile, while others are influenced by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical events, and policy changes. For example, oil prices are expected to be short - term volatile and weak, and the stock market shows a preference for technology growth on the basis of dividend asset allocation. [1][47] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices fell from high levels. After the cooling of the Israel - Iran conflict, oil prices are back to being dominated by macro and supply - demand factors. OPEC+ may increase production in August. The oil market is expected to be short - term volatile and weak. [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Ship refueling and deep - processing demand are low. High - sulfur fuel oil demand boost from summer power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is limited. FU is volatile and weak, while LU's cracking has rebounded from a low level. [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: After the geopolitical situation eases, the Middle East market has declined. Domestic chemical demand has increased, but supply pressure still exists, and the market is expected to be in a range - bound state. [23] - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices have given back the war premium as the Israel - Iran conflict stopped. Market attention will shift to tariff negotiations and the Fed. [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Last Friday, copper prices were in a high - level shock. The market is concerned about the US trade negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. Short - term, the upward trend of Shanghai copper may reach 81,000, while long - term, short - selling at high levels is recommended. [3] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum was in a high - level shock on Friday night. There is a large market divergence. There are opportunities for short - selling at high levels after the sentiment stabilizes. [4] - **Zinc**: The zinc market is affected by the strike at a Peruvian smelter, but the global zinc supply is still expected to be in surplus. Wait for the opportunity to short - sell at high levels. [7] - **Lead**: Shanghai lead rose and then fell. The supply side provides support, and the rebound height depends on consumption. [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded strongly. The pressure on the ore end has increased. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. [9] - **Tin**: Tin prices retraced last Friday. It is recommended to short - sell distant - month contracts at high levels. [10] - **Manganese Silicon**: Prices follow steel. In the short - term, it is temporarily bullish. [18] - **Silicon Iron**: Prices follow steel. Demand is okay, and it is temporarily bullish in the short - term. [19] - **Ferroalloys** - **Alumina**: Spot trading is scarce. The domestic production capacity is in an over - supply state, and it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds. [5] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The futures follow Shanghai aluminum. Consider a long - AD and short - AL strategy if the spread widens. [6] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price has rebounded, but high positions indicate risk accumulation. It is expected to be in a short - term range - bound state. [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price has increased with positions. It is expected to be in a range - bound state. [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price has increased with reduced positions. It is expected to be in a low - level range - bound state. [13] - **Urea**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the market is in a range - bound adjustment. Export policies will be the key to the future trend. [24] - **Methanol**: The expected reduction in imports has not materialized. The market is expected to be in a short - term range - bound state. [25] - **Styrene**: The cost side lacks support, supply pressure has increased, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak. [26] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The cost side lacks support, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The price is expected to be in a range - bound state. [27] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is relatively strong in the short - term but may be in a low - level range - bound state in the long - term. Caustic soda is expected to follow the cost fluctuation. [28] - **PX & PTA**: Prices rebounded last Friday night. The supply - demand pattern may become looser in the medium - term. [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price decline has slowed down. It is expected to be in a bottom - range - bound state. [30] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip**: Short - fiber prices follow raw materials. Bottle chips may have a chance to repair the processing margin, but it should be treated with caution. [31] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The drought situation in the US soybean产区 has improved. The market is expected to be in a range - bound state for now. [35] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The market is in a range - bound state. Long - term, a long - position strategy at low levels is recommended for vegetable oils. [36] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed planting area in Canada is lower than expected, and the rapeseed market continues to have a bearish outlook. [37] - **Soybean No. 1**: The decline has slowed down. Wait for the US soybean planting area report. [38] - **Corn**: The futures market is expected to be in a range - bound state, affected by factors such as wheat policies and state - reserve auctions. [39] - **Hogs**: The short - term price has rebounded, but the long - term supply pressure is large. [40] - **Eggs**: The price is expected to be weak in the long - term. A short - position strategy is recommended. [41] - **Cotton**: US cotton is expected to be affected by the planting area report. Domestic cotton has a good inventory reduction, and long - positions should be held with caution. [42] - **Sugar**: US sugar is trending downward, and the domestic sugar market is expected to be in a range - bound state. [43] - **Apples**: The market is bearish on the new - season output, and a short - position strategy is recommended. [44] - **Wood**: The price is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see. [45] - **Pulp**: The price is in a low - level range - bound state, and it is recommended to wait and see. [46] Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to face pressure on the upside. [20] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The A - share market shows a style preference for technology growth on the basis of dividend asset allocation. [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures are mostly volatile. The bond market may face increased volatility risk in the short - term. [48]

Group 1 - The report maintains a tactical benchmark view on A-shares, citing the elimination of policy uncertainty and a decline in risk-free interest rates as factors that enhance market performance [4][11][13] - The tactical benchmark view on government bonds is upheld, with the report noting an imbalance between financing demand and credit supply, which limits the downward movement of interest rates [4][11][13] - The tactical allocation view on gold is downgraded to benchmark, as geopolitical tensions have eased and market risk appetite has rebounded, reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][11][13] - A tactical underweight view on the US dollar is maintained, with concerns over fluctuating policies and persistent fiscal deficit issues impacting the dollar's credibility [4][14] Group 2 - The report highlights that the recent market sentiment is stable, with expectations for economic recovery and a favorable environment for equity assets due to declining risk-free rates and high trading volumes [11][12] - The report indicates that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and improved China-US relations have boosted global risk appetite, suggesting structural opportunities within equity markets [11][12] - The report emphasizes that the current macroeconomic environment limits the potential for significant downward adjustments in bond yields, as the market has already priced in the prevailing interest rate levels [11][12]

| TG国贸期货 | 日度策略参 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期: 2025/06 | 布给公馆言: /0001 | 从业资格号:F0251925 | | | | | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 当前国内外消息面较为真空,股指经历强势突破后,在情绪和流 | | | 动性的驱动下进一步走强的概率较高,后续关注宏观增量信息对 | 股指方向的指引。 | | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国债 | 農汤 | 宏观金融 | 空间。 | | | 市场风险偏好改善,金价短期或承压;但关税不确定性仍高企, | 農湯 | 真金 | 金价或难持续下挫,料震荡运行。 | | | | 银价短期震荡为主。 | 震荡 | 日银 | 近期美联储多位官员发表鸽派言论,市场风险偏好回升,叠加海 | 看多 | 镇司 | | 外挤仓行情发酵, 短期铜价偏强。 | 近期美联储降息预期提升,市场风险偏好回升,叠加电解铝库存 | म | 低位运行,铝价偏强运行。 | | | | 美联储降息预 ...

Group 1 - The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, with the Israeli-Iranian military conflict showing signs of de-escalation and a ceasefire agreement in place [1] - The overall global capital markets have shown a rebound, with the domestic market's risk appetite significantly improving, as evidenced by the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year [1] - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have strengthened, contributing to the positive market momentum [1] Group 2 - Last week, both stock exchanges experienced a volatile rebound, with average daily trading volume significantly increasing, surpassing 1.4 trillion yuan, indicating heightened market activity [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the previous resistance levels from May and June, achieving a new yearly high, although it faced resistance near last year's fourth-quarter high [1] - Market hotspots last week were primarily concentrated in the military, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and non-bank financial sectors, with small-cap and technology stocks showing greater gains [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report covers a wide range of financial and commodity markets, including macro - strategy, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products. Market conditions are influenced by various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and geopolitical events. For example, the US core PCE data affects gold and stock markets, and policy changes in different countries impact commodity markets [13][21][37]. - Different markets have different outlooks. Some markets are expected to be bullish in the long - term but may face short - term fluctuations, while others are expected to be bearish or remain in a range - bound state [2][21][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US May core PCE price index rose 2.7% year - on - year, exceeding expectations. Inflationary pressure led to a lack of short - term motivation for the Fed to cut interest rates, causing gold prices to decline on Friday. Geopolitical risks did not intensify. Short - term gold prices are expected to be weak with potential for further decline [13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's "Big and Beautiful" bill has entered a short - term deadlock. Although it is expected to pass, the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term due to the split within the Republican Party and the expected increase in the deficit [15][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US May core PCE price index growth was higher than expected. The market's risk appetite remains high under the support of the interest - rate cut cycle and upcoming tax - cut bills. However, the current position of US stocks does not fully account for negative factors such as tariff negotiations and economic downturn, so there is a risk of correction [19][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The profits of large - scale industrial enterprises in China declined in May. Treasury bond futures rose as a reaction to the weak stock market. The central bank's support for market liquidity is a key factor for the bullish view, but the market may face short - term fluctuations. Long positions can be held, and buying on dips is recommended [22][24][25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The profits of industrial enterprises from January to May turned negative, but the stock market has been strong recently. The divergence between the market and fundamentals is increasing. If policies can promote economic recovery, the market will be more stable; otherwise, the sustainability of the market rally will be reduced. It is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [26][28][29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - US coal production increased from January to May 2025. Steam coal prices strengthened, with the 5500K coal price remaining stable and low - calorie coal prices rising slightly. High - temperature weather in June improved demand, and supply was slightly affected by safety inspections. It is expected that the demand pressure will ease in July [30][31]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The air - conditioner production orders in July turned negative year - on - year. The iron ore price rebounded slightly this week. Although there is pressure on port inventories in July due to the shipping rush in June, this negative factor has been partially priced in. The overall trend is expected to be range - bound, and steel mill profits may be slightly compressed [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel plan in 2026. Palm oil production data in Malaysia shows mixed trends, and exports are expected to increase. Palm oil is expected to remain range - bound, and soybean oil is also expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to factors such as Indian restocking, US soybean weather, and US biofuel policies [33][34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - A cold front caused frost in the sugar - cane producing areas of southern Brazil. The sugar - cane crushing volume in the first half of June in southern Brazil is expected to decrease by 19.3% year - on - year, and sugar production is expected to decrease by 19.9%. The international sugar market is under supply pressure, but the external market has shown signs of stabilization, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [35][37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The drought - affected area of US cotton remained at 3% in the week ending June 24. Indian cotton planting area increased slightly. US cotton export contracts declined. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain in a low - level range - bound state, and attention should be paid to the USDA's actual planting area report [40][42][43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills was close to 2.5 million tons last week. The drought - affected area of US soybeans decreased. Imported soybean costs declined, and soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The price of US soybeans and soybean meal futures are expected to be supported at certain levels, and attention should be paid to US soybean planting area and inventory reports [44][46]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Africa imposed temporary safeguard measures on imported steel flat - rolled products. The production of white goods in July decreased year - on - year. Steel prices rebounded, but the profit margin declined. The steel market may rebound slightly in the short term but faces medium - term pressure [47][49][50]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The growth progress of corn in different regions varies. The spot price of corn is likely to strengthen, but significant price increases may require accelerated inventory depletion. It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts and consider shorting new - crop contracts when the production situation is clearer [52]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch narrowed. The substitution effect needs further attention. It is recommended to wait and see due to complex influencing factors [52]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The national alumina inventory increased slightly. The spot price remained stable, and the weighted index declined slightly. The short - term futures price is expected to be strong due to low inventory and warehouse receipts [53]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - India plans to take measures to address copper supply risks. A new copper project in Canada has released resource data. Short - term macro - expectations are volatile, and the US dollar may continue to weaken. The domestic copper inventory situation is divided. The copper market is expected to be range - bound at a high level, and caution is needed when chasing long positions [55][57]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zhongkuang Resources plans to invest in a lithium salt production project. The short - term lithium price is expected to be slightly bullish. It is recommended to avoid short positions or shift to the LC2511 contract and look for buying opportunities on dips [58][59]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon futures contract rebounded, possibly related to policy news. The supply is expected to be in surplus in July. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and consider positive spreads between contracts [60][61]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A large silicon enterprise in Xinjiang suddenly cut production. The industry's production situation is complex. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [62][63]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GreenMei's products are suitable for low - altitude aircraft power scenarios. Nickel prices rebounded last week. The prices of nickel ore and nickel iron are expected to be weak. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [64][65][66]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The short - term supply and demand of lead are weak, but there is an expectation of strong supply and demand in the long - term. It is recommended to look for buying opportunities on dips and pay attention to positive spreads between contracts [68]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread was in contango, and the spot premium continued to decline. The zinc market may rise in the short term but faces a surplus in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see, protect existing short positions, and consider positive spreads between contracts [69][70]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EUA carbon price fluctuated last week. The short - term carbon price is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to European weather and geopolitical situations [71][72][73]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ may discuss increasing production in July. The number of US oil rigs decreased. The oil price has returned to near the pre - conflict level, and the risk premium may remain in the third quarter. The oil price is expected to be range - bound [73][74][75]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder increased, but the trading volume was low. The PVC market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [75][76]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle - chip factories' export prices were mostly stable. The industry plans to cut production in July, which will relieve supply pressure. It is recommended to look for opportunities to expand the processing margin [77][78]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong had minor fluctuations. The supply was limited due to enterprise maintenance, and the demand was relatively stable. The futures price rebounded, but the rebound height may be limited [79][80]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp stabilized. The futures price rebounded slightly. The pulp market is expected to be range - bound [81][82]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The Antwerp port was severely disrupted by strikes, causing delays for nearly 50 merchant ships. The spot freight rate is showing signs of peaking. The short - term decline of the EC2508 contract is limited, but the return on long positions is also limited [83][84][85].

市场风险偏好继续改善的背景下，贵金属价格全线回落。 上周五（6月27日），纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年8月黄金期价当日收盘下跌55.5 美元，收于每盎司3286.1美元，跌幅为1.66%。 当周金价累计下跌近3%，为连读第二周周线下跌。避险需求减弱成为金价下挫的主要原因。 随着以色列和伊朗在周初达成停火协议，对地缘局势升级的担忧减弱，加上贸易局势出现缓和迹象，均 削弱了避险资产黄金的吸引力，促发了金价的获利了结。 据CME"美联储观察"，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为81.9%，而此前一日这一概率为77.3%。 不过当天稍晚公布的美国6月密歇根大学一年期通胀预期终值则为5%，低于预期的5.2%。加上美国5月 消费者支出出人意料地出现下降，交易员对美联储年内累计降息75个基点、并从9月开始降息的押注有 所增加。 但在短期内，风险偏好转暖带来的抛售仍占据主导。有市场分析人士表示，随着贸易紧张局势减弱和中 东停火协议延续，黄金吸引力减弱，促使部分投资者选择退出。 在此背景下，周一（6月30日）早盘开盘后，金价进一步下挫。纽约期金电子盘低点一度逼近3250美元 ／盎司，刷新逾一个月低点。 在金价大 ...