近日现金流ETF（159399）标的指数完成四季度调仓。从中信一级行业分布的视角看：富时现金流指数25Q4调仓大幅 增加通信的行业权重，提升电子、商贸零售、钢铁、汽车等行业的配置权重，削减石油石化、食品饮料、有色金属等 行业的权重。指数调整后行业分布更加均衡，成分股自由现金流率略有提升。 （数据来源：Wind，调整前数据截至2025年11月28日，指数调整于2025年12月22日生效。注：根据指数编制方案，自 由现金流收益率按最近12个月的自由现金流除以企业价值计算，取截至审核月份前一个月最后一个交易日收盘时的数 据。风险提示：行业分布根据中信一级行业划分，会随行情，公司行为和成分股变化波动） 在低利率、资产配置荒、外部环境干扰的背景下，现金流类资产一方面具有"类黄金"的安全属性，另一方面也更有能 力提供稳定的现金回报，其配置价值凸显。 回顾2014年以来，富时现金流指数与国证现金流、中证现金流以及800现金流2014年以来总体表现接近，强于中证红利 指数与红利低波指数。对比同类现金流指数走势，富时现金流指数的年化波动率相对较低、卡玛比率相对较高，具有 较好的风险收益比。 （数据来源：Wind，截至2025/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the macroeconomic strategies for asset allocation in 2026, emphasizing the importance of understanding economic cycles and the need for wealth management upgrades. The proposed strategy focuses on "risk premium decline, profit increase, and structural differentiation" as a framework for investment decisions [1][2]. Growth Factors - The expected GDP growth rate for China in 2026 is projected at 4.9% for real GDP and 5.2% for nominal GDP, indicating a moderate recovery characterized by a "stable real and rising nominal" trend. This recovery is supported by proactive fiscal policies and monetary easing, which bolster infrastructure and foster new productive capacities [3]. - Corporate profitability is anticipated to improve, with industrial profit margins expected to rise to 5.8%-6.0% and return on equity (ROE) for listed companies increasing to 9.5%-10%. This improvement is driven by supply-side reforms and a recovery in pricing power [4][5]. Inflation Factors - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise moderately to a central value of 0.5% in 2026, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to turn positive in the third quarter, with an annual average of -0.4%. This reflects a weak recovery in consumption and a gradual alleviation of production pressures [6]. Liquidity Factors - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to remain low, with a "low first, high later" trend. The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is likely to be reduced by 10 basis points, aligning with growth stabilization policies while avoiding excessive pressure on bank profitability [7]. - The expected range for the USD/CNY exchange rate in 2026 is between 6.80 and 7.15, indicating a "first rise, then stabilize" pattern influenced by U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and improved foreign exchange supply-demand dynamics [7]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - Equity assets are likely to enter a "profit-driven" golden period, with a focus on new productive capacities and cyclical goods benefiting from PPI recovery expectations. This shift represents a significant change in risk asset pricing [10]. - The bond market is expected to exhibit "low volatility and narrow fluctuations," with a balanced approach to liquidity and yield. The reduction in LPR is favorable for high-rated credit bonds [10]. - Indirect investment tools such as wealth management products and funds are expected to benefit from the "residential savings migration," serving as a transitional option for conservative investors [10]. - The attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets is expected to increase, suggesting a moderate allocation to RMB-denominated equities and bonds to mitigate single currency risks [11].

在短暂整理后，黄金市场再度走强，向历史高位发起持续冲击，国际现货黄金盘中首次突破4400美元/盎司关口，刷新历史纪录，随后在亚洲交易时段进一 步攀升至4480美元/盎司附近，单日涨幅显著。 COMEX黄金突破4520美元后回落，国内金饰价格突破1400元/克，白银站上70美元， 机构普遍看多中长期前景但提示风险管理，投资者宜以资产配置视角审慎布局，避免追高短线博弈，关注即将到来的技术性抛压。 一、金价屡创新高，年内表现领跑主要资产 今年年初，金价仍运行在2600美元/盎司上下，至今累计涨幅接近70%，创下上世纪70年代末以来最强年度表现。 国际金价的持续走高迅速传导至国内市场，上海期货交易所黄金期货主力合约收盘突破1000元/克整数关口，创出新高，显示人民币计价黄金价格同样进入 历史高位区间，黄金在大类资产中的相对收益优势进一步凸显。 二、多重因素共振，支撑金价持续上行 本轮金价上涨并非单一因素驱动，多重宏观与市场力量叠加的结果，首先，地缘政治风险反复升温，国际局势不确定性加大，显著抬升避险需求，黄金作为 传统避险资产收益 关税政策不确定性、资金持续流入黄金ETF以及各国央行延续购金行为，共同推升黄金需求，部 ...

岁末年终，受债市波动影响，以债券为主要配置资产的固收类理财产品净值出现明显回撤，引发投资者 关注。12月24日，北京商报记者注意到，在社交平台上，有不少投资者反映购买的理财产品净值出现波 动，部分产品甚至出现提前终止的情形；也有不少观望者因产品提前终止、净值下跌等消息望而却步。 对此，多家银行及理财公司发文"科普"，并针对不同风险偏好投资者给出资产配置建议。 债市调整理财产品现回撤 进入年末，债市出现连续调整现象，让不少以债券为主要配置资产的银行理财产品出现净值波动。12月 24日，北京商报记者注意到，社交平台上有不少投资者留言求助，"买入理财产品前净值一直较为稳 定，入手后净值却出现波动"；也有投资者表示，"本想靠理财增厚收益，没想到持有一个月却收效甚 微"；还有不少持观望态度的投资者直言，"看到多款产品提前终止、净值下跌的消息，现在不敢轻易入 手了，担心本金受损"。 从市场表现来看，Wind数据显示，自11月以来债市开启持续调整模式，12月上旬曾短暂反弹，但中旬 再度走弱。截至12月24日收盘，30年期超长期国债收益率报2.2185%，较前一交易日下跌0.45个基点； 10年期国债收益率企稳于1.835% ...

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to sell its entire issued share capital of Torch Media Co., Ltd. to Crestwell International Limited for HKD 8 million, as part of its ongoing business optimization efforts [1] Group 1: Sale Details - The sale is scheduled for December 24, 2025, and involves the transfer of certain prepayments held by the target group to the company's subsidiary, Shenqian Technology [1] - Torch Media Co., Ltd. primarily engages in media content production and distribution [1] Group 2: Strategic Rationale - The board believes that the target company has limited strategic development prospects within the group due to two consecutive years of net losses and the need for ongoing financial resources to maintain operations [1] - The sale allows the company to optimize asset allocation and focus on areas with greater growth potential [1] Group 3: Financial Flexibility - By divesting the loss-making business, the company can reallocate internal resources to support the development of its event hosting and functional materials trading segments, thereby enhancing overall financial flexibility [1]

格隆汇12月24日丨中国前沿科技集团(01661.HK)公告，于2025年12月24日，公司为卖方与买方Crestwell International Limited订立买卖协议，据此，卖方同意出售而买方同意以800万港元收购销售股份(为目标 公司Torch Media Co., Ltd.的全部已发行股本)，惟须受买卖协议条款及条件所规限。此外，根据买卖协 议，目标集团现时持有的若干预付款项("预付款项")将转让予公司的附属公司深前科。 目标公司为一家于英属维尔京群岛注册成立的有限公司，主要从事媒体内容制作及发行。 出售事项属集团持续业务优化举措的一部分。经定期检讨本集团的业务组合后，董事会认为，鉴于目标 公司连续两年录得净亏损状况及维持其营运所需的持续财务资源，其业务于集团内部的进一步战略发展 前景有限。因此，出售事项使集团能够优化资产配置，并专注于增长潜力更大的领域及业务。出售事项 亦透过剥离亏损业务及令集团得以重新调配内部资源，支持赛事承办及功能性材料贸易板块的发展，从 而提升集团的整体财务灵活性。 于完成后，公司将不再持有目标公司的任何权益，且目标公司将不再为公司的附属公司。因此，于完成 后，目标公司 ...

公告称，出售事项属集团持续业务优化举措的一部分。经定期检讨集团的业务组合后，董事会认为，鉴 于目标公司连续两年取得净亏损状况及维持其营运所需的持续财务资源，其业务于集团内部的进一步战 略发展前景有限。因此，出售事项使集团能够优化资产配置，并专注于增长潜力更大的领域及业务。出 售事项亦透过剥离亏损业务及令集团得以重新调配内部资源，支持赛事承办及功能性材料贸易板块的发 展，从而提升集团的整体财务灵活性。 智通财经APP讯，中国前沿科技集团(01661)公布，于2025年12月24日，该公司拟向Crestwell International Limited出售Torch Media Co., Ltd.，的全部已发行股本，代价800万港元。此外，根据买卖协 议，目标集团现时持有的若干预付款项将转让予公司的附属公司深前科。目标公司主要从事媒体内容制 作及发行。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant fluctuations, leading to noticeable declines in the net value of fixed-income wealth management products, raising concerns among investors [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since November, the bond market has entered a continuous adjustment phase, with a brief rebound in early December followed by renewed weakness. As of December 24, the 30-year government bond yield was reported at 2.2185%, down 0.45 basis points from the previous trading day, while the 10-year yield stabilized at 1.835% [3][4]. - The decline in bond prices directly impacts the net value of wealth management products, which primarily rely on bonds as their main asset [3][5]. Group 2: Causes of Market Fluctuation - Multiple factors have contributed to the market's volatility, including year-end institutional behaviors and regulatory pressures, which have decreased the willingness of banks and insurance companies to hold long-term bonds [4]. - Despite the current fluctuations, there are signs of recovery in the bond market, with long-term bonds showing improved value and potential for recovery as central bank policies support liquidity [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Various financial institutions have provided asset allocation strategies in response to the market conditions. For instance, cash management products are recommended for their stability and low risk, while "fixed income +" products can help hedge against bond market volatility [6][7]. - Investors with lower risk tolerance are advised to focus on short to medium-term pure bond products, while those with a higher risk appetite may consider medium to long-term bonds or "micro-rights" fixed income products to enhance returns [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of acknowledging uncertainty in investment decisions and the dangers of overconfidence in market predictions [5][7][20]. Group 1: Market Uncertainty - Investors often seek certainty and rely on theories or historical patterns, but the fundamental nature of financial markets is uncertainty [7]. - No investment strategy is infallible; historical examples show that even well-regarded companies can underperform due to high valuations or changing economic conditions [8]. - Holding a mindset of "I am definitely right" can lead to devastating losses when market conditions shift [9]. Group 2: Lessons from Investment Masters - Even top investors like those at Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) and Warren Buffett have made significant mistakes, highlighting that expertise does not guarantee success [12][18]. - LTCM, despite its sophisticated models and high returns, suffered catastrophic losses due to unforeseen events, demonstrating the vulnerability of even the most complex strategies [14]. - Buffett's investment in airline stocks during the pandemic serves as a reminder that even the best can misjudge market conditions [16][18]. Group 3: Overconfidence in Investing - Overconfidence is a survival trait that can lead to poor investment decisions, as individuals often believe they are above average in their abilities [20][22]. - This cognitive bias results in frequent trading, which can diminish returns; studies show that high-frequency traders underperform the market by 6.5 percentage points annually after fees [26]. - Investors tend to seek confirmation of their beliefs, leading to a narrow focus that can exacerbate losses [29][30]. Group 4: Embracing Uncertainty - Adopting the mindset of "I might be wrong" can lead to better investment practices, such as diversification and risk management [31][32]. - Acknowledging potential errors encourages investors to avoid putting all their resources into a single asset and to maintain a balanced portfolio [32]. - Recognizing the possibility of being wrong can also facilitate timely decision-making, such as cutting losses when investment theses no longer hold [36][37]. Group 5: Adjusting Expectations - Accepting the fallibility of one's judgments can lead to more realistic expectations and a healthier investment mindset [38][39]. - Investors should focus on steady growth rather than attempting to time the market perfectly, which can reduce anxiety and improve overall investment experience [41]. - The article concludes that humility and respect for market unpredictability are crucial for long-term success in investing [44].

最后，金丰来认为，目前判断黄金市场已达顶部还为时过早。观察发现，诸如VanEck GDX等矿业股 ETF尚未出现大规模资金流入，且公众舆论中对黄金作为"野蛮遗迹"的偏见依然存在，这种社会共识的 缺失恰恰是牛市尚未终结的积极信号。金丰来表示，只有当全球经济管理进入极致的平衡与理性状态、 债务问题彻底消失时，黄金与比特币的避险价值才会瓦解。而在现实世界的复杂博弈中，这两者作为长 期对冲工具的必要性依然无可替代。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：陈平 12月24日，在审视全球资产配置的演进时，金丰来认为，尽管2026年比特币、人工智能及整体科技板块 可能面临阶段性的回调，但黄金的牛市远未落幕。目前，这种加密资产的暂时疲软，反而可能转化为白 银上行的动力。ByteTree所创立的BOLD指数提供了一个深刻的参考框架，该指数基于风险加权，将黄 金与比特币这两类非相关性资产进行再平衡。金丰来表示，这种策略的核心逻辑在于捕捉两种独立资产 间的互补性，为投资者在波动的市场环境中寻找避风港。 对于长期价格走势，相关分析指出，早在当前牛市启动之前，便有预测认为金价将在2030年触及7000美 元/盎司。金丰来认 ...