以下文章来源于教你挖掘基 ，作者冰姐 教你挖掘基 . 投资理财有方法，我们手把手教你挖掘牛基~ 时光飞逝，仿佛须臾之间，我们挥手作别了2025年上半年。 这半年间： 从特朗普政府的关税政策反复摇摆，到海外地缘政治争端一波未平一波又起，从DeepSeek以惊人效率突破AI算力封锁，到全球资金开始了新一轮的迁 徙，大类资产的投资图景正在经历一场悄无声息的重构。 下一站，多元资产配置——在这个经济全球化遭遇逆风、技术革命"起于青萍之末"的时代，投资者需要的不是预测风暴的能力，而是在风暴中 保持航向的定力。 01 混沌之中的上半年 ——全球资金再平衡实录 翻开大类资产上半年的成绩单，"资金盛与资产荒"精准勾勒了其间的市场底色。 海内外的流动性如同潮水，却在现实世界中似乎找不到足够的优质资产停泊。 在此背景之下，"确定性"资产迎来狂欢， 黄金 成为了明星选手。 相较于南华商品指数的整体收跌，国际现货黄金26%的涨幅背后，是地缘冲突与美元信用松动的双重叙事。 从贸易争端阴云未散，到中东局势骤然生变，黄金的避险属性被无限放大，但更深远的力量来自全球央行持续增持——预计2025年购买量将达 1000吨。中国央行更是连续第7个 ...

偃旗息鼓:全球风险偏好反弹上行 -- 大类资产配置周度点评(20250630) 王子翌(分析师) 02 -386 /6666 本报告导读: 我们调整此前的战术性大类资产配置观点。我们维持对 A 股的战术性标配观点,维 持对国债的战术性标配观点,下修黄金的战术性配置观点至标配,维持对美元的战 术性低配观点。 投资要点: ne Hill - S 黨略 经济修复节奏以及市场对经济景气的预期相对企稳,权益市场表现 较好在一定程度上限制了债市的相对吸引力。此外,资金利率的不 确定性以及市场对央行操作的高度博弈亦限制了利率的下行动能。 参研究报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策略研究 / 2025.06.30 登记编与 □ 我们维持对 A 股的战术性标配观点。投资者对于政策的不确定性消 除提振市场风险偏好中枢,无风险利率的下行有利于A股表现。定 价资金"以我为主",而对复杂多变的外部宏观背景逐渐钝化。总量 政策层面,财政积极发力、货币政策维持宽松;产业层面,中国科 技的突破有利于企业增加信心并增加资本开支。近期市场对 A 股定 价因子的预期亦相对稳定。 我们维持对国债的战术性标配观点。在融资需求与信贷供给不平衡 D ...

Group 1 - The first half of 2025 has seen a significant rebalancing of global funds, characterized by a "funding boom and asset scarcity" [2][4] - Gold has emerged as a star asset, with a 26% increase in international spot gold prices, driven by geopolitical conflicts and a weakening dollar [5][37] - The Chinese central bank has increased its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, reaching 73.83 million ounces, indicating a collective move towards "de-dollarization" [5][37] Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing volatility, with U.S. Treasury yields fluctuating above 4.0%, while China's 10-year government bond yields have dropped to a historical low of 1.65% [6][7] - Credit bond ETFs have rapidly gained popularity, with a total market size exceeding 210 billion yuan, reflecting a shift towards stable income assets [8] - The divergence in economic cycles between the U.S. and China is evident, with the U.S. experiencing a slowdown while China is bottoming out [8] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown resilience, with the Hang Seng Index leading global markets with a 20.5% increase, supported by liquidity from southbound funds [10] - The A-share market has seen strong sector rotation, particularly in the AI industry and consumer sectors, indicating a lack of a consistent overarching theme [11][15] - The current market is driven by liquidity, with expectations of a stabilization in earnings, suggesting a potential return to value-based investing [15] Group 4 - Three key underlying logics have emerged in the market: the continuous rise of certainty premiums, the revaluation of industrial narratives, and the rebalancing of global asset allocation [16][19] - The demand for certainty is reflected in the strong performance of gold and high-dividend assets, as investors seek visible cash flows amid macro uncertainties [17] - The AI industry is transitioning from concept to performance, with significant growth in cloud business revenues and capital expenditures among leading tech firms [18] Group 5 - The outlook for major asset classes in the second half of 2025 emphasizes the importance of strategic asset allocation amid increasing market volatility [23][24] - A diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended, with a focus on both undervalued, high-dividend value stocks and growth sectors driven by AI [27][28] - The U.S. stock market faces risks from high valuations and downward adjustments in earnings expectations, necessitating caution [32]

Core Insights - The public fund issuance has reached a small peak this week, with at least 33 new funds launched, representing a 50% increase from the previous week [1] - Equity funds dominate the issuance structure, with 28 equity funds accounting for 84.85% of the total [1] - Passive index funds continue to be favored, with 21 out of 28 equity funds being passive index funds, making up 85.71% of equity fund issuance [1][2] Fund Issuance Details - The average fundraising period for newly issued funds is 17.55 days, indicating a tight issuance schedule [1] - Among the newly issued funds, there are 4 mixed funds, all of which are equity-oriented, constituting 14.29% of equity fund issuance [1] - The bond fund issuance remains stable, with 5 funds launched, accounting for 15.15% of the total issuance [2] Market Trends - The appeal of passive index funds is attributed to their lower management fees and high transparency, making them attractive in a volatile market [2] - As residents shift their wealth allocation from traditional assets to financial assets, the importance of index funds in asset allocation is increasing [2] - Public institutions are diversifying their index fund product lines, promoting the market penetration of passive index funds [2] Fund Issuers - The 33 newly issued funds come from 23 public fund institutions, with notable contributions from China Europe Fund, Huatai-PB Fund, and China Universal Asset Management, each launching 3 new funds [3] - China Europe Fund's new offerings include a mix of equity funds, while Huatai-PB Fund focuses on bond funds [3][4]

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：甜豆腐脑yyds 不知不觉，A股已经刷新了年内高点，最高触及3462点。不少觉得A股会一直在3000点附近徘徊 的投资者无疑踏空了本轮行情，也有一部分投资者也早在刚刚回本之际，就已经清仓... 雪球上看到有段句话，用来描述这个情景也非常贴切：投资者长期持有一个股票不涨，就像囚徒 呆在地下室里面一样。当股票开始第一波小涨时，跳出地平线，股票投资人会认为涨到如日中天 了。事实是因为长期身处暗室，眼睛无法适应光线，错把清晨的第一缕阳光当成正午的太阳.... 投资不是围绕成本的数字游戏，买入的是各类资产的未来，巴菲特也对这个问题有更朴实见解： 买入一只股票的时候首先忘掉买入价！今天我们来一起分析下投资中常常会拖累我们收益的一种 心理学误区——锚定效应。 01 什么是锚定效应？ 锚定效应（Anchoring Effect）是指人们在面对不确定性的决策时，会过度依赖初始信息或参考 点（即"锚"），并以此为基础进行调整和判断。这个初始信息或参考点可能是之前的经验、他人 的建议、市场上的价格标签等。由于这种依赖，人们的决策往往会偏离理 ...

| 偃旗息鼓：全球风险偏好反弹上行 | | | --- | --- | | [Table_Authors] | 王子翌(分析师) | 证 券 研 究 报 告 A 股 策 ——大类资产配置周度点评（20250630） 登记编号 S0880523050004 021-38676666 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 本报告导读： 策 我们调整此前的战术性大类资产配置观点。我们维持对 A 股的战术性标配观点，维 持对国债的战术性标配观点，下修黄金的战术性配置观点至标配，维持对美元的战 术性低配观点。 略 投资要点： 究 略 周 报 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.30 [Table_Summary] 我们维持对 A 股的战术性标配观点。投资者对于政策的不确定性消 除提振市场风险偏好中枢，无风险利率的下行有利于 A 股表现。定 价资金"以我为主"，而对复杂多变的外部宏观背景逐渐钝化。总量 政策层面，财政积极发力、货币政策维持宽松；产业层面，中国科 技的突破有利于企业增加信心并增加资本开支。近期市场对 A 股定 价因子的预期亦相对稳定。 我们维持对国债的战术性标配观点。在融资需求与信贷供给不平衡 ...

联系人：黄雯瑜 邮箱：huangwenyu@gyzq.com.cn 摘要 资产配置与金融工程 证券研究报告 指数强势突破，贴水大幅收敛 ——大类资产周报（20250623-20250629） 分析师：朱定豪 SAC执业资格证书编码: S0020521120002 邮箱：zhudinghao@gyzq.com.cn 2025年6月30日 分析师：汤静文 SAC执业资格证书编码: S0020524060001 邮箱：tangjingwen@gyzq.com.cn 一、本周大类资产交易主线 本周利多政策密集释放，国内金融促消费政策提振市场信心，贸易摩擦阶段性缓和，美联储降息预期升温，整体风险偏好 有所修复，推动资金回流成长股，但基本面实质压力未消，企业盈利前瞻指数创年内新低（BCI 49.3），PPI预期下行+CPI 连续负增长凸显通缩压力，本周商品普遍承压，CRB指数跌4.09%，原油领跌。央行主动释放流动性，政策信号指数强势， 信贷效率边际改善但仍较弱，本周超长端债券强势，短端表现平淡。美元指数创三年半新低，在美元弱势周期下，人民币 资产吸引力提升，本周权益市场强势突破，全A日均成交额放量（+22.5%）、ET ...

Core Viewpoint - The second half of the year is expected to see a phase synchronization of domestic and foreign policy rhythms, with a focus on structural opportunities in domestic assets [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Despite differing economic cycles between China and the U.S., uncertainties from tariff impacts are leading to synchronized policy rhythms in the second half of the year [1] - In the first half of Q3, both domestic and foreign economies are expected to show resilience, with policies focusing on cautious management of expectations [1] - By the latter part of Q3, export pressures in China and increasing pressures in the U.S. are anticipated, with more incremental policies likely to be introduced in Q4 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. is expected to maintain some resilience in Q3, supporting risk appetite, but uncertainties from tariffs and debt risks may increase market volatility [1] - In Q4, as pressures in the U.S. mount, the likelihood of Fed rate cuts may support risk asset valuations through liquidity [1] - The U.S. fiscal year budget deadline and the expiration of "reciprocal tariffs" in September may lead to significant market fluctuations [1] Group 3: Domestic Economic Conditions - Domestic conditions are expected to remain weak but stable, with infrastructure spending providing upward support in the second half of the year [1] - Export growth is projected to slow down in August, with a neutral year-on-year growth expectation of around 1.5% [1] - Infrastructure funding is expected to increase in the latter half of the year, while real estate policies continue to strengthen [1] Group 4: Asset Allocation - Domestic assets are expected to focus on structural opportunities, with a policy-driven logic becoming more pronounced [1] - Equity markets are anticipated to continue with dividend and growth styles, focusing on undervalued sectors, while commodities will focus on black building materials and agricultural products [1] - Bonds are recommended for low-cost allocation, benefiting from expectations of loose monetary policy in Q4 [1] Group 5: International Market Considerations - International assets should be aligned with the weak dollar theme, while being cautious of volatility spikes [1] - U.S. stocks are expected to experience fluctuations in the first half of Q3, with potential relief from valuation pressures in Q4 due to rate cuts [1] - Non-dollar assets are likely to benefit in a weak dollar environment, while gold and other resource commodities are recommended for long-term strategic allocation [1]

与传统黄金投资渠道相比，国际主流交易市场提供的XAU/USD（黄金兑美元）产品呈现三大特性： 对于希望配置黄金资产的普通投资者，需重点关注三大核心要素： 1. 时间连续性（24小时跨市场交易） 2. 纽约COMEX、伦敦LBMA、上海黄金交易所三大市场接力开市，使投资者可实时响应突发事件。2022年俄乌冲突爆发当晚，国际金价在亚市时段瞬 时波动达3.5%，灵活的交易机制让亚太投资者成功捕捉到窗口机会。 3. 双向风险对冲 4. Bloomberg数据显示，美元指数与黄金价格相关系数长期维持在-0.8以上。在美联储加息周期中，具备多空双向操作能力的交易工具，成为对冲本币贬 值的有效手段。 5. 高流动性溢价 6. 国际清算银行（BIS）统计显示，外汇市场日均交易量超7.5万亿美元，其中贵金属相关货币对占12.7%。这种深度流动性确保在2020年3月全球资产抛 售潮中，黄金报价仍维持正常点差，而部分黄金ETF曾出现10%以上溢价。 三、个人参与路径的风险管控要点 据世界黄金协会2025年报告显示，全球央行连续16个季度净购金，年度增储量达1297吨，刷新历史纪录创1971年美元与黄金脱钩以来最高纪录。这种机构 级 ...

Core Viewpoint - The inclusion of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) ETFs into the fund advisory configuration marks a significant breakthrough, aimed at enriching investment tools and guiding long-term capital towards new productive forces [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Impact - The inclusion of STAR Market ETFs is expected to lay the groundwork for more ETFs to be integrated into fund advisory services, promoting a more efficient and diversified industry [1][4]. - This adjustment is anticipated to have profound effects on the business models and competitive landscape of the advisory industry, potentially leading to a virtuous cycle of enhanced advisory capabilities, improved ETF product systems, and increased funding for technological innovation [6]. Group 2: Investment Characteristics - STAR Market-listed companies are characterized by their focus on high-tech sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and machinery, aligning with the development requirements of new productive forces [2]. - The STAR Market is home to a mix of small-cap startups and high-quality specialized enterprises, providing good coverage for mid-small market capitalization targets [2]. Group 3: Advisory Strategy Applications - STAR Market ETFs can serve as satellite assets in a "core + satellite" investment strategy, replacing high-fee technology-themed active funds and enhancing portfolio diversification [3]. - They can also be utilized to construct barbell strategies, balancing risk and return, and act as liquidity tools for sector rotation or thematic investments in key policy areas like artificial intelligence and biomedicine [3]. Group 4: System and Platform Adaptation - The industry has long called for the inclusion of ETFs in fund advisory configurations, and as the advisory pilot moves towards normalization, other ETFs are expected to follow suit [4][5]. - Significant system adaptations are required to support on-exchange ETF trading, addressing pricing and settlement rules, and enhancing investor education to shift focus from single product speculation to asset allocation thinking [4]. Group 5: Future Development - The integration of STAR Market ETFs is expected to enhance the flexibility of advisory strategies, allowing for more dynamic use of sector and style rotation strategies [6]. - The low fees and high transparency of STAR Market ETFs are likely to reduce portfolio costs and set the stage for further ETF inclusions in fund advisory services, driving the industry towards greater efficiency and diversity [6].