Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of simplicity in investment strategies, suggesting that a straightforward approach can lead to more stable and successful outcomes [2][18]. Group 1: Personal Investment Journey - The protagonist, a 30-year-old programmer in Beijing, has accumulated approximately 3 million yuan in cash, free of loans, but feels anxiety about the "35-year career crisis" [2][14]. - Initially, the protagonist's investment strategy was basic, relying on low-risk products like Yu'ebao and fixed-income products, aiming only to cover daily expenses [3][14]. - The first experience with mutual funds was profitable initially, but subsequent market fluctuations led to significant losses, highlighting the unpredictability of even seemingly stable investments [4][5]. Group 2: Lessons Learned - The protagonist experienced multiple losses in the stock market, which led to a deeper understanding of human psychology and the nature of risk in investing [6][7]. - The realization that overthinking and excessive trading often result in losses, while a more patient approach could yield better results [5][7]. - Acknowledgment of the importance of risk management and the need for a diversified investment strategy to mitigate potential losses [17]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy - The article advocates for a balanced asset allocation strategy, suggesting a mix of 70% bond funds, 10% stock funds, and 20% gold to manage risk effectively [8][15]. - Emphasizes the significance of setting realistic expectations and understanding personal limitations in investment capabilities [15][16]. - The concept of "embracing asset allocation" is presented as a way to acknowledge one's limitations and manage expectations in the pursuit of wealth [15][16]. Group 4: Practical Investment Strategies - The article outlines a simple four-step approach for new investors: assess risk tolerance, select recommended funds, set investment amounts, and establish a flexible investment timeline [18]. - Encourages new investors to focus on consistent and disciplined investment practices rather than overcomplicating their strategies [18]. - The importance of using reliable tools and platforms for investment management is highlighted, with a recommendation for the Snowball platform for its user-friendly features [11][20].

桥水基金创始人达利欧发出警告，美国日益沉重的债务负担正将其市场推向风险边缘，他建议投资者将黄金作为对冲工具，以 抵御潜在的系统性危机。 近日，达利欧在一次活动上将美国不断增加的偿债支出比作堵塞血管的斑块，指出这会"挤出其他开支"，并可能导致"心脏病发 作"。 他建议，在一个充分分散的投资组合中，应配置10%至15%的黄金。这一观点提出之际，美国股市正因通胀数据降温和降息预 期而迭创新高。 同场参与讨论的渣打集团首席执行官Bill Winters表示，尽管欧洲市场的估值不像美国那么高，但面临着相似的状况： "英国和法国处境类似，但市场已经对它们施加了比对美国更严厉的约束"。 达利欧认为，在一个"债务充斥"且地缘政治紧张局势加剧的世界里，投资者在构建一个中立的投资组合时，应该反思"你拥有的 是谁的钱？"他给出了具体的资产配置建议，即在一个充分多元化的投资组合中，黄金应占有10%到15%的比重。 债务"心脏病"警报下，黄金的避险价值 达利欧的警告核心在于美国不断膨胀的债务及其服务成本。他在为即将于12月举行的阿布扎比金融周举办的一场启动活动上表 示，当一个国家花费更多资金来偿还债务时，必然会挤压其他必要的政府支出， ...

【导读】国际金价持续上涨，多家理财子公司密集"上架"黄金理财 在多重因素推动下，国际金价近期持续上涨。9月10日，伦敦现货黄金价格报3650.75美元/盎司，年内 累计涨幅超40%，突破历史高位。 金价持续上涨也促使银行理财子公司加大对黄金理财产品的布局。自9月以来，招银理财、光大理财等 多家理财子公司相继趁势密集发行挂钩黄金的理财产品。据统计，截至目前，市场上存续黄金理财有48 只，其中14只为理财子公司于年内发行。 在业内人士看来，受市场投资与避险需求的双重推动，国际金价中长期仍处于震荡上行通道。当前，理 财子公司参与黄金业务的公司数量还较少，预计未来会有更多公司参与，并探索更多黄金配置策略，相 关"黄金+"理财产品的发行节奏也将明显加快。 黄金理财发行"热潮"再现 趁着国际金价持续上涨，黄金理财发行"热潮"再现。 9月3日，招银理财发布产品成立公告，招银理财招睿焦点联动黄金5号固收类理财计划于9月2日成立， 挂钩标的为SGE黄金9999。此前，8月中旬，招银理财已发行了一只挂钩黄金的理财产品。 9月4日，光大理财阳光青臻盈7期(黄金挂钩策略)固定收益类理财产品也进入募集期。 中国理财网信息显示，截至9月 ...

【 导读 】国际金价持续上涨，多家理财子公司密集"上架"黄金理财 中国基金报记者 马嘉昕 在业内人士看来，受市场投资与避险需求的双重推动，国际金价中长期仍处于震荡上行通 道。当前，理财子公司参与黄金业务的公司数量还较少，预计未来会有更多公司参与，并探 索更多黄金配置策略，相关"黄金+"理财产品的发行节奏也将明显加快。 黄金理财发行"热潮"再现 趁着国际金价持续上涨，黄金理财发行"热潮"再现。 9月3日，招银理财发布产品成立公告，招银理财招睿焦点联动黄金5号固收类理财计划于9月 2日成立，挂钩标的为SGE黄金9999。此前，8月中旬，招银理财已发行了一只挂钩黄金的理 财产品。 9月4日，光大理财阳光青臻盈7期（黄金挂钩策略）固定收益类理财产品也进入募集期。 中国理财网信息显示，截至9月11日，名称含有"黄金"的存续理财产品共有48只。其中，银 行理财子公司存续的黄金理财有17只，14只产品于年内发行。 银行理财产品配置黄金的方式主要有两种：一种是"固收+"类理财产品，"+"的资产主要与黄 金有关。如黄金ETF，其投资比例按规定要在10%以内，一般在5%左右。另一种是与黄金标 的挂钩的结构化理财产品，主要投资黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a stable analytical framework and diversified asset allocation to avoid the pitfalls of chasing trends in investment, highlighting that there is no optimal solution in asset allocation [1][4]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategies - The performance of FOF funds has been strong this year, attributed to effective diversified allocation strategies [6]. - The manager, Tang Jun, adjusts the allocation between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks based on market conditions, demonstrating a responsive approach to market changes [1][6]. - Tang Jun actively participates in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and military ETFs, capitalizing on structural opportunities in a complex market environment [1][8]. Group 2: Professional Background and Insights - Tang Jun's career spans quantitative investment, fund evaluation, and macro research, providing a solid foundation for his current asset allocation work [3][4]. - His experience in quantitative research has enhanced his ability to identify various market factors, which is crucial for effective asset allocation [3][4]. - The "Zhongtai Clock" research incorporates policy analysis to better fit the domestic market, addressing the limitations of the previously used Merrill Lynch Clock [4]. Group 3: Dynamic Adjustment and Market Trends - Tang Jun believes that while macro trends provide guidance for asset allocation, the timing of price reflections can be uncertain, necessitating continuous monitoring and dynamic adjustments [6][8]. - The current allocation shows a shift towards A-shares over Hong Kong stocks, indicating a responsive strategy to market conditions [6][8]. Group 4: Avoiding Common Investment Mistakes - The article discusses the common mistake of "chasing trends," where investors buy high and sell low, and suggests establishing a stable analytical framework to counter this behavior [10][11]. - Diversification is recommended to enhance the return stream and provide confidence in maintaining the analytical framework during market fluctuations [11]. - Understanding "expectation differences" is crucial to avoid chasing trends, as short-term asset performance is often driven by the gap between fundamentals and market expectations [12].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced increased volatility since September, with investors showing a strong interest in industry-themed ETFs, particularly in battery and securities sectors, while shifting away from technology sectors like chips and artificial intelligence [1][4][6]. Fund Flows and ETF Performance - From September 1 to September 9, 12 stock ETFs saw net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with industry-themed ETFs leading the way [1][4]. - Battery ETFs, including Guangfa Battery ETF, Huatai-PB Battery 50 ETF, and CMB Battery ETF, attracted significant net inflows of 35.23 billion yuan, 22.97 billion yuan, and 21.17 billion yuan respectively during this period [4][6]. - The total net inflow for battery-themed ETFs exceeded 10 billion yuan, indicating a strong market interest [6][7]. - The performance of battery ETFs has been notable, with returns of 40% for Huatai-PB Battery 50 ETF and CMB Battery ETF from August 9 to September 9 [7]. Investment Trends and Shifts - Investors are increasingly favoring assets with reasonable valuations and high earnings certainty, as evidenced by the shift from technology sectors to high-growth areas like batteries and securities [4][6]. - The trend of significant inflows into non-broad-based ETFs suggests a change in how retail investors are entering the market, with a preference for thematic and sector-focused investments [14][15]. - The shift in investment strategy indicates that selecting industries may become more critical than selecting individual stocks in the current market environment [15]. Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The inflow into securities ETFs, such as Guotai Junan ETF, which saw a net inflow of 50.84 billion yuan, reflects the active trading environment in the market [10][11]. - The overall trend shows that non-broad-based ETFs have experienced a rapid expansion, with net inflows of 227.9 billion yuan from June to August, while broad-based ETFs faced significant outflows [14]. - The changing dynamics of retail investor participation may lead to a more concentrated market effect, emphasizing the importance of industry selection in investment strategies [15].

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月10日 证券行业 2025 年中报综述暨券业战略转型总结 优于大市 自营轮动加快，海外谋扩张机遇 中报业绩概述：基本盘稳固，自营及经纪驱动业绩高增。2025 年上半年，上 市券商实现营收 2,518.66 亿元、同比+11.37%，实现归母净利润 1,040.17 亿元、同比+65.08%。年初以来权益市场稳步向上，交易额、两融余额等规 模持续提升。受市场活跃度持续提升影响，券商业绩普遍呈现高增长。从营 收增速来看，42 家上市券商中超 7 成业绩上涨，30 家实现营业收入与净利 润双增长，其中 22 家实现归母净利超 50%的增长，10 家实现归母净利超 1 倍的增长。整体来看，分部增速：经纪 634.54 亿元、同比+43.98%，投行 155.3 亿元、同比+18.11%，资管 211.95 亿元、同比-2.72%，利息 196.57 亿元、 同比+30.66%，投资 1,123.54 亿元、同比+53.53%。分部占比：经纪 25.2%、 投行 6.2%、资管 8.4%、利息 7.8%、投资 44.6%，其他 7.8%。 资产配置概况：金融资产持续推动扩表。金融投资资 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent significant decline in bond prices, particularly highlighting the 30-year government bond yield rising from around 2.06% to over 2.11% in a single day [1][11] - The article attributes the bond market's volatility to new public fund regulations regarding redemption fees and rumors about tax exemptions, which have created a sensitive environment for bonds in a low-interest-rate context [12][11] - It emphasizes the importance of strategic asset allocation, suggesting that investors should adopt a diversified approach rather than focusing solely on the performance of individual assets like bonds [17][16] Group 2 - The article notes that A-shares have seen a decrease in trading volume, dropping from 3 trillion to 2 trillion, leading to a "pants-snatching" situation where liquidity is concentrated in a few hot sectors [21][22] - It highlights the performance of specific stocks, particularly in the AI and battery sectors, which have shown significant trading activity and volatility [25] - The article mentions the strong performance of Alibaba in the Hong Kong market, with substantial net buying from mainland investors, indicating a positive sentiment towards the stock [26][27]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing complex fluctuations, with various sectors under scrutiny and expectations for recovery, driven by government policies and economic conditions [1][2]. Market Trends - Since September 24, 2022, there has been a significant policy shift in China from "tight fiscal + loose monetary" to "both monetary and fiscal easing," which has positively impacted market sentiment [1]. - The long-term outlook for A-shares is optimistic, with reasonable valuations and expected annualized growth for the CSI 300 index, despite some sectors showing high valuations and market fragmentation [2]. Investment Strategies - The company employs a diversified macro strategy across various asset classes (stocks, commodities, bonds) to manage risks effectively and control drawdowns [3]. - Advanced systematic risk control mechanisms are in place, including pre-warning and stop-loss indicators, ensuring timely risk management during market volatility [3]. Economic Recovery - There are notable signs of recovery in certain sectors post-pandemic, with strong export performance and increasing contributions from emerging industries like semiconductors and new energy vehicles [4]. - Consumer policies are being implemented to boost spending, although the impact may lag behind compared to developed countries [4]. Sector Focus - The semiconductor and biopharmaceutical sectors have seen significant price increases due to factors such as lower financing costs from interest rate cuts and strong innovation [4]. - The company plans to focus on the non-ferrous metals sector, anticipating increased demand and potential price rises if a global easing cycle occurs [5][6]. Interest Rate Impact - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to have already been partially priced into the A-share market, with ongoing attention on future rate adjustments [6]. - The decline in risk-free asset yields presents opportunities for equities, as the current yield on China's ten-year government bonds is around 1.8%, indicating room for adjustment [6]. Investor Guidance - New investors are advised to temper their return expectations, adopt a systematic asset allocation approach, and continuously learn to develop a suitable investment methodology [6].

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月10日 自营轮动加快，海外谋扩张机遇 证券行业 2025 年中报综述暨券业战略转型总结 优于大市 轻资本业务：经纪业务为增长主力，佣金率延续下滑。2025 上半年，A 股日 均交易额为 12,317 亿元，较去年同期+60%；股基交易额达 188.78 万亿（单 边），较去年同期+61%，市场活跃度提升。我们根据中证协的全行业经纪收 入对交易佣金率进行测算，2025 年上半年证券行业佣金率为 0.0182%，较 2024 年上半年有所降低，经纪业务竞争持续激烈。投行业务，境内股承同比 有所改善，境外股承实现高增。资管业务，伴随行情复苏，公募基金对母公 司业绩贡献逐步增加，私募资管受益于银行理财委外规模增长。 国际业务：加快海外业务及数字资产等创新业务布局。一方面，中资券商加 速海外布局，持续提升国际竞争力。头部券商综合实力强劲，国际业务处领 先地位。另一方面，RWA 等创新业务为中资券商展业提供机遇。当前，部分 券商积极申请相关牌照，也将传统业务向数字资产、虚拟资产领域深度拓展。 投资建议：当前，中证证券全指 PB 估值为 1.56 倍，略高于近 5 年均值，我 们维持行业" ...