国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2026年2月8日 CONTENTS 本周观点总结 01 供应 02 需求 03 库存 04 价格及价差 05 炼厂开工 全球炼厂检修 国内炼厂产量与商品量 国内外燃料油需求数据 全球燃料油现货库存 亚太区域现货FOB价格 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 美国地区燃料油现货价格 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 全球燃料油裂解价差 全球燃料油纸货月差 进出口 06 国内燃料油进出口数据 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周燃料油、低硫燃料油观点：短期偏强，地缘问题仍是关键 | | 近期市场仍然维持高波动，价格在周一下跌之后持续回弹。高硫方面，地缘问题仍然没有得到解决，中东地区随时可能因冲突发生而出现断供， | | --- | --- | | | 现货市场仍然表现强势，新加坡市场的成交升贴水持续维持高位。在地缘冲突得到明确解决路径之前，市场的担忧情绪将持续存在，对现货价 | | | 格有 ...

重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601857.SH | 中国石油 | 10.77 | 0.90 | 0.87 | 0.89 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 推荐 | | 600938.SH | 中国海油 | 34.30 | 2.90 | 2.60 | 2.68 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 推荐 | | 600028.SH | 中国石化 | 6.50 | 0.41 | 0.31 | 0.34 | 16 | 21 | 19 | 推荐 | | 603619.SH | 中曼石油 | 32.59 | 1.76 | 1.48 | 1.99 | 19 | 22 | 16 | 推荐 | | 603393.SH | 新天然气 | 29.08 | 2.80 | 2.81 | 3.06 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major companies in the petrochemical sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Zhongman Petroleum, and New Natural Gas [2]. Core Views - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical developments, particularly the U.S.-Iran negotiations, on oil price volatility. The recent talks have led to fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude futures settling at $68.05 per barrel, down 3.73% week-on-week, and WTI futures at $63.55 per barrel, down 2.55% week-on-week [8][10]. - The report suggests that the decline in U.S. crude oil production, influenced by cold weather, has provided some support for oil prices. As of January 30, U.S. crude oil production was 13.22 million barrels per day, a decrease of 480,000 barrels per day week-on-week [11][12]. - Investment recommendations focus on three main lines: 1) Attention to industry leaders with stable performance and high dividends, such as China National Petroleum and China Petroleum & Chemical; 2) Focus on China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which has low production costs and increasing output; 3) Monitor Zhongman Petroleum and New Natural Gas, which are in a growth phase [12]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for key companies in the petrochemical sector, indicating strong investment potential [2]. Market Performance - As of February 6, the petrochemical sector underperformed, with a decline of 2.4%, compared to a 1.3% drop in the CSI 300 index [14][17]. Company Performance - Notable stock movements include Runbei Hangkai, which increased by 16.35%, while PetroChina Oilfield Services saw a decline of 12.32% [20][21]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their effects on oil prices, emphasizing the need to monitor developments closely [10][23]. Petrochemical Data Tracking - The report includes detailed tracking of oil and gas prices, with Brent crude futures at $68.05 per barrel and WTI at $63.55 per barrel, reflecting recent market trends [45].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the gold market have been dramatic, with significant price drops and increased volatility, prompting banks to issue risk warnings and adjust their precious metal business rules [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On January 30, 2026, international gold prices fell sharply, with spot gold dropping below $4,700 per ounce, marking a nearly 10% decline, the largest single-day drop in 40 years [1]. - The volatility in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including political pressures on Trump, fiscal expansion, a weakening dollar, and a resurgence of liquidity in the market [3]. - The recent surge in gold prices had exceeded normal macro pricing rhythms, leading to concentrated positions and leverage among investors, which triggered a chain of sell-offs when market sentiment shifted [3][5]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - Geopolitical factors have also played a role, with a significant drop in gold prices on October 21, 2025, attributed to easing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Ukraine conflict [5]. - A strengthening dollar has further suppressed gold prices, as the appreciation of the dollar increases the cost of purchasing gold for investors holding other currencies [5]. - The rapid rise in gold prices has led to a desire among investors to take profits, contributing to increased short-term volatility [3][7]. Group 3: Banking Sector Response - Major banks in China, including ICBC, CCB, and ABC, have issued multiple risk warnings and adjusted their gold accumulation business rules in response to market volatility [5][7]. - Banks have raised the minimum investment amounts for gold accumulation and emphasized the need for investors to operate cautiously based on their risk tolerance [7][10]. - Despite the banks' warnings, the demand for physical gold remains high, with many investment gold bars reported as "out of stock" or "sold out" [7][8]. Group 4: Investor Behavior and Market Sentiment - Investor behavior has shown a divide, with some viewing the price drop as a buying opportunity while others remain cautious due to potential further volatility [10][16]. - The market sentiment has shifted rapidly, with some investors feeling the urge to "catch the bottom," which poses operational risks during high volatility periods [16]. - The gold market's performance in 2025 saw prices rise from under $2,700 per ounce at the beginning of the year to over $4,500 per ounce by year-end, driven primarily by investment demand [12].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the trade agreement between the U.S. and India, where India agreed to reduce its purchases of Russian oil in exchange for lower tariffs from the U.S. [1][3] - The trade deal is valued at over $500 billion, with the U.S. reducing tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18% [3][5] - India's imports of Russian oil have significantly decreased, dropping from a peak of 2 million barrels per day in 2025 to 1.1 million barrels per day in January [7][9] Group 2 - India is not completely halting Russian oil imports but is shifting from state-owned refineries to private ones while negotiating with Middle Eastern suppliers [9][13] - The Indian government is subtly tightening the approval process for Russian oil imports, indicating a willingness to cooperate with the U.S. without fully severing ties with Russia [15][16] - Russia has responded to India's actions by offering unprecedented discounts on oil to China, with prices dropping by $9 to $12 per barrel [20][24] Group 3 - The U.S. aims to weaken Russia's financial position, expand its export markets, and strengthen the dollar's role in international trade through this agreement with India [24][29] - India maintains a strategic silence regarding its commitments to the U.S., allowing for flexibility in its dealings with Russia [29][32] - China's approach to Russian oil is cautious, maintaining a diversified supply strategy while benefiting from discounted prices [22][32] Group 4 - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with India balancing its relationships with both the U.S. and Russia, while the U.S. seeks to draw India closer into its trade network [33]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Wood Mackenzie emphasizes that global energy transition is heavily reliant on Chinese technology, particularly in high-voltage transmission, and that attempting to decouple from China could cost the world an additional $29 trillion [1]. Group 1: Importance of Chinese Technology - China's ultra-high voltage (UHV) transmission technology is described as a "lifesaving highway" that efficiently delivers electricity over long distances with minimal loss, making it essential for energy transition [5]. - The U.S. energy grid is outdated, primarily built in the 1960s and 1970s, which hampers its ability to support modern energy demands, especially with the rise of AI technologies that require substantial electricity [3]. Group 2: Economic Implications of Decoupling - If Western countries continue to avoid Chinese technology, they will face significantly higher costs in raw materials, labor, and time, which could lead to a doubling of expenses [9]. - The total hidden costs associated with this decoupling could amount to an additional $29 trillion over the next 20 years, diverting funds that could otherwise improve living standards and education [11]. Group 3: Global Energy Transition Challenges - The report highlights that energy transition is a race against time rather than a geopolitical struggle, with countries like Brazil and Saudi Arabia successfully implementing Chinese technology for their energy needs [13]. - The U.S. faces a dilemma between the urgent electricity needs of domestic AI companies and the political pressures to impose sanctions on China [13]. Group 4: Consequences of Ignoring Chinese Technology - The failure to utilize China's leading technology could not only result in excessive financial costs but also jeopardize efforts to combat global warming, potentially missing the last opportunity to address climate change [15].

地缘政治紧张局势导致船舶绕行苏伊士运河，非洲的海上枢纽如今被视为替代物流路线。中国在东非地 区广泛的港口存在，凸显了嵌入式物流网络相较于（美国那种）永久性军事存在的优势，也增强了其应 对类似冲击的适应能力。重要的是，中国持续优先发展基于互联互通的韧性，而不是追求公海冲突优 势。 美国及其盟友仍保有压倒性海上实力与成熟的基地网络。但基础设施日益成为战略竞争的核心，中国在 非洲港口的发展方略通过在关键海上通道常态化存在、缩小后勤不对称性，正逐步改变环境。从深层 看，这种模式正在重塑传统海权认知：影响力来源不再仅限于舰队的规模，而是更多包括契约性整合、 准入权与所有权标准。北京的方略区别于西方基于联盟的模式，其特点在于愿意承担商业风险，并在政 治环境变动中保持运营能力，这体现出一种重视经贸影响力优势而非战略对抗的发展理念。 如今，基础设施本身已成为一种持久的影响力工具，中国成功融入非洲海洋经济，其在非洲港口的深度 参与正推动全球地缘政治格局发生更广泛的转变。（作者阿克尚·兰詹等，辛斌译） 港口在现代全球经济中具有重要的战略意义。中国企业资助、建设并运营港口设施，并将其作为共 建"一带一路"倡议的重要组成部分，将技术 ...

格隆汇2月7日｜据CCTV国际时讯，对于伊朗和美国在阿曼举行的谈判，伊朗国内一直密切关注。伊朗 媒体认为任何谈判都不应基于零和博弈，而是以双方的诚意为基础，创造可持续局面。伊朗在所有谈判 中的底线是维护国家的威慑力，伊朗不会拿自己的国防能力和国家安全做交易。伊朗应该展现有效的外 交手段，既要理解地缘政治现实以及伊朗与美国之间始终存在的结构性分歧，同时又要在抵抗和对话之 间寻找到合理的平衡。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (predicted upward trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (predicted upward trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (short-term long/short trend in a relatively balanced state, poor operability on the current market, advisable to wait and see) [1] - Asphalt: ★☆★ (predicted upward trend, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market) [1] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation has a significant impact on the energy market, and the oil price is expected to continue to fluctuate sharply [3] - High-sulfur fuel oil is expected to maintain a strong trend due to supply and demand and geopolitical factors, while low-sulfur fuel oil is under pressure [4] - The supply pressure of asphalt is limited, consumption has improved, and the price is expected to continue to strengthen [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - This week, the crude oil market was affected by the alternating tension and relaxation of the US-Iran geopolitical situation, and the oil price maintained a fluctuating trend. The main contract of SC crude oil futures fell slightly by 0.6% (-2.9 yuan/barrel) compared to last Friday [3] - The premium of the near-month contract over the far-month contract has dropped more significantly. The market's concern about the interruption of crude oil supply due to a direct military conflict in the Middle East has temporarily eased [3] - Geopolitical news has a phased and intermittent impact on crude oil prices. The current global oil market inventory accumulation pressure is still significant, and the situation of intensified oil price fluctuations is expected to continue [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil: Geopolitics is the current main contradiction. Due to the high uncertainty of future geopolitical evolution and the structural irreplaceability of high-sulfur resources in the Middle East to the Asian market, the price is supported. The spot price difference remains strong, indicating a tight supply and demand pattern, and it is expected to continue the strong trend [4] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: It is facing greater pressure. Overseas refinery device problems persist, and the arrival of arbitrage cargoes from the West will increase marginal supply. With the arrival of the shipping off-season around the Spring Festival, demand support is expected to weaken, and the overall market is under pressure [4] Asphalt - Some local refineries in Shandong have shut down production, and the main refineries in the south have maintained intermittent production. The scheduled production in February has decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month, and the supply pressure is limited [5] - As of the end of January, the cumulative year-on-year increase in the shipment volume of 54 sample enterprises was 4.9%, and the consumption performance has improved year-on-year [5] - A domestic chemical company bid for Canadian Cold Lake crude oil at a discount of $5 per barrel compared to Brent crude oil as a substitute for Venezuelan crude oil. It is expected that refineries will face an increase in the cost of substitute raw materials after the second quarter, and the futures contracts for relevant months have relatively high increases. The asphalt price is expected to continue the strong trend, and the cracking spread is expected to continue to fluctuate upward [5]

等待地缘爆发 原油月报 2026/02/06 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估&策略推荐 05 原油需求 02 宏观&地缘 06 原油库存 03 油品价差 07 气象灾害 04 原油供应 08 另类数据 01 月度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 资料来源：NYMEX、五矿期货研究中心 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 ...