Group 1 - The chemical fiber sector experienced a collective surge on March 12, with companies like Jilin Chemical Fiber, Taihe New Materials, and others hitting the daily limit up [1] - The chemical fiber industry index rose by 2.95%, reaching 5441.64 points [2] - Notable stock performances included Zhongfu Shenying with a 20.01% increase, Jilin Carbon Valley up by 10.64%, and Jilin Chemical Fiber rising by 10.09% [3] Group 2 - The ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has led to increased tensions, impacting oil prices and indirectly supporting the chemical fiber sector [4] - The International Energy Agency announced the release of 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves to address supply concerns due to military actions in the region [4] - Despite efforts to stabilize the market, oil prices saw volatility, with Brent crude futures rising by 4.8% to $91.98 per barrel and WTI crude futures increasing by 4.6% to $87.25 per barrel [4] Group 3 - Analysts from Everbright Securities noted that the ongoing US-Iran conflict is likely to affect chemical product production and exports from Middle Eastern countries, tightening supply and increasing prices [5] - Shenyin Wanguo Futures highlighted that geopolitical tensions are disrupting global supply chains, with significant impacts on shipping and trade [5]

2026 年 3 月 12 日 集运指数（欧线）：地缘情绪主导，波动较大 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | 期货 | 合约 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2604 | 1,992.7 | 7.15% | 66,207 | 28,602 | 797 | 2.31 | 2.18 | | | EC2606 | 2,329.4 | 10.18% | 16,645 | 15,615 | 168 | 1.07 | 1.12 | | | EC2608 | 2,295.5 | 7.33% | 1,655 | 3,132 | 253 | 0.53 | 0.72 | | | EC2610 | 1,536.0 | 4.43% | 4, ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced declines due to geopolitical events, with the A-share market seeing the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.93% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.22% [1] - The bond market performed well, with government bonds strengthening and a balanced funding environment observed at the beginning of the month [1][29] - Gold prices fluctuated downwards, influenced by a rebound in the US dollar and weakening expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, while the largest gold ETF showed a reduction in holdings [1][5] Group 2: Stock Market Insights - The A-share market faced a temporary emotional shock from geopolitical events, but the impact was limited, and market sentiment improved after the start of the Two Sessions [3] - A barbell strategy is recommended, balancing dividend or free cash flow assets with sectors showing fundamental improvements or policy support [3] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a stable funding environment and neutral supply-demand dynamics [4] - The macro environment of low interest rates is likely to persist, but increased volatility and reduced yield space are anticipated [4] Group 4: Commodity Market Insights - The short-term outlook for gold prices is influenced by the strength of the US dollar and rising bond yields, with a stable long-term allocation logic for gold due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank purchases [5][34] - The South China Commodity Index rose by 6.43% this week, with notable increases in energy and chemical sectors [34] Group 5: International Market Insights - The US economic fundamentals remain strong, but geopolitical events and concerns over AI have dampened risk appetite [6] - Investors are advised to consider overseas assets as part of a diversified portfolio, especially in a low daily subscription limit environment for QDII funds [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - With more refineries in China reducing their operating rates, more petrochemical companies declaring force majeure, and more Middle - East refineries shutting down due to drone attacks, the supply reduction of the chemical industry is a fact. Even if the geopolitical situation eases, damaged refineries won't start immediately, and shut - down facilities need time to restart. The chemical industry may outperform crude oil futures prices later [2]. - Crude oil will lead the chemical industry to maintain a strong and volatile pattern [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: The release of strategic petroleum reserves cannot change the tight supply expectation, and oil prices will remain strong. - **Main Logic**: The IEA's release of strategic petroleum reserves may not change the tight supply pattern caused by the blocked passage of the Strait of Hormuz. If the situation eases, oil prices may fall but won't return to pre - conflict levels in the short term. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish before the situation becomes clearer [7]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt - fuel oil price spread will widen. - **Main Logic**: The high - level shock of crude oil, the expected decline in asphalt refinery operating rates due to the deterioration of refining profits, the high - growth in Hainan's asphalt production, the accumulation of asphalt inventory, and the relatively undervalued asphalt futures compared to fuel oil all contribute to the expected widening of the spread. - **Outlook**: Volatile, with the absolute price of asphalt overvalued and the medium - to - long - term valuation expected to decline [8]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The price of high - sulfur fuel oil has fallen from its high level. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation in Iran affects fuel oil exports and natural gas supply. In the long term, the substitution of fuel oil for power generation by natural gas and photovoltaics is a negative factor [9]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It follows the decline of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. However, its export tax - rebate advantage and the transfer of the "reduce oil and increase chemicals" pressure may support it [10]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: Cost increase has escalated into a real - supply shock, and many refineries in the Asia - Pacific region are under force majeure. - **Main Logic**: Due to the tense geopolitical situation, raw - material costs remain high. PX supply is expected to shrink significantly in the second - quarter maintenance period, and the unplanned losses exacerbate the supply tightness [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the PX price will be volatile and bullish under cost support and real - supply shock. In the medium term, the logic of buying on dips remains. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: The volatility of upstream costs has increased, and the PTA basis has remained relatively stable. - **Main Logic**: The sharp rise in upstream raw materials has pushed up the cost of PTA, and the spot price has risen significantly due to the supply - cut sentiment. In the short term, PTA is expected to be bullish driven by cost and market sentiment [13]. - **Outlook**: Expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: Driven by crude oil and commodity sentiment, pure benzene fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: There is an expectation of geopolitical easing, and international oil prices have fallen. On the fundamental side, some supply enterprises may reduce production, while the downstream industry's profits have improved, and the operating rate has increased [14][16]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Affected by device maintenance and crude - oil fluctuations, styrene fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: There is an expectation of geopolitical easing, and international oil prices have fallen. Supply may be reduced due to device maintenance and production cuts, while exports have increased. The market is supported by replenishment after the price decline [17]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. 3.1.9 MEG - **View**: The reduction in oil - based device operating rates is gradually emerging, and supply is expected to shrink significantly. - **Main Logic**: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has affected the supply of raw materials, leading to a decline in the operating rate of domestic ethylene - cracking MEG enterprises. The reduction in overseas imports and domestic oil - based device production cannot be fully compensated by the delay in coal - chemical device maintenance [19]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish in the short term. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: Upstream raw materials are facing a real - supply shock. - **Main Logic**: The cost of upstream polyester raw materials has increased significantly. Downstream customers have stocked up during the previous price increase and are now waiting for the industrial chain to recover [20]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber price will follow the upstream trend and remain volatile and bullish in the short term. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chip - **View**: The supply contraction of upstream raw materials has triggered market enthusiasm. - **Main Logic**: The sharp rise in upstream futures has strongly driven up the price of polyester bottle chips, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. The current supply - demand situation is tight, and the overall fundamentals are good [22]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price will follow the raw - material trend, and the support for processing fees will increase. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: Due to the continuous geopolitical conflict, methanol fluctuates within a range. - **Main Logic**: The methanol futures price is volatile and bullish. The inventory of production enterprises and ports has decreased, but the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The geopolitical situation still affects the import side [25][26]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: Enterprises have significantly reduced their inventory, and urea fluctuates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: The daily production of the urea industry is stable at a high level. Agricultural demand still exists in some regions, and industrial demand is gradually recovering. The inventory pressure of enterprises has weakened, which provides support for the market [27]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. 3.1.14 PE - **View**: There is an expectation of a decline in refinery operating rates, and PE fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The oil price is volatile. If the Strait of Hormuz is continuously affected, PE imports may decrease. The sentiment in the energy - chemical market is still volatile, and the expected decline in refinery operating rates supports the near - term contracts [30]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: The number of maintenance operations has increased, and PP fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The oil price is volatile. The direct impact on PP imports from the Persian Gulf is limited. The profits of oil - based and PDH refineries are under pressure, and the overall operating rate is low [31]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term. 3.1.16 PL - **View**: There is an expectation of a decline in oil - based refinery operating rates, and PL fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates widely. The spot market has become more rational, and the downstream is waiting and observing [32]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: Upstream production cuts are increasing, and PVC is cautiously bullish. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts have increased the cost support and supply - disruption expectations in the energy - chemical industry. Upstream production cuts have expanded, exports have improved, and inventory is expected to decrease [34]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: Supply continues to decrease, and caustic soda is cautiously bullish. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts have increased the cost support and supply - reduction expectations. The production - cut scale at home and abroad has expanded, exports have improved, and inventory is expected to decrease [35]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., are provided, including the latest values and changes [37]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis, changes in the basis, and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., are provided [38]. - **Inter - Variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of various combinations such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc., are provided [39]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summary content is provided in the text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index show different degrees of decline [276]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index shows a decline of 8.58% on March 11, 2026, an increase of 1.11% in the past 5 days, an increase of 41.21% in the past month, and an increase of 45.03% since the beginning of the year [278].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current gold price maintains a narrow - range oscillation, showing a sideways consolidation trend. After the short - term boost of geopolitics to gold and silver prices, the sharp rise in oil prices under the background of the US - Iran war triggers market inflation expectations and makes the market re - evaluate the US economy's ability to withstand energy shocks. In February 2026, the US CPI and core CPI were 2.4% and 2.5% respectively, remaining flat for two consecutive months. The stickiness of the service end is the core resistance to the decline of inflation, while the slowdown of housing inflation and the continuation of commodity deflation provide key impetus for long - term inflation cooling. In the context of rising energy prices, it may re - intensify price upward pressure, which will make the Fed cautious about the interest - rate cut rhythm, and it is difficult to see rapid easing policy signals in the short term, suppressing precious metal prices. The strategy is to be cautiously bearish, with the reference operating range of the main Shanghai gold contract being 1100 - 1200 yuan/gram and that of the main Shanghai silver contract being 20500 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold fell 0.37% to 1151.48 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.88% to 21997.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold fell 0.07% to 5175.30 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.06% to 85.48 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.21%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.37 [2] - In February 2026, the US CPI and core CPI were 2.4% and 2.5% respectively, remaining flat for two consecutive months. Before the escalation of the current geopolitical conflict, the US inflation pressure had shown significant signs of relief. The CPI had a mild month - on - month increase of 0.3%, the core CPI month - on - month was also stable at 0.2%, and the year - on - year increase of core inflation remained at a near - five - year low [2] - The spokesman of the Central Command of Khatam al - Anbiya in Iran severely warned that Iran is fully capable of blocking the Strait of Hormuz and clearly stated that "no liter of oil will be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz under conditions favorable to the US and its allies." To deal with the violent shock in the energy market and relieve the supply tension, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that it would release 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves into the market. Meanwhile, the Trump administration plans to launch multiple trade investigations on Wednesday local time according to Article 301 of the 1974 Trade Act through the US Trade Representative's Office to pave the way for imposing new tariffs, covering issues such as digital service tax and exchange - rate manipulation [3] 3.2 Strategy View - The current gold price maintains a narrow - range oscillation, showing a sideways consolidation trend. Geopolitics provides short - term support for gold and silver prices, and the sharp rise in oil prices under the US - Iran war background triggers inflation expectations. The US inflation was in a moderate decline channel before the Middle East conflict, but the stickiness of the service end slows down the decline rhythm. Rising energy prices may re - intensify price upward pressure, making the Fed cautious about interest - rate cuts and suppressing precious metal prices in the short term. The strategy is to be cautiously bearish, with the reference operating range of the main Shanghai gold contract being 1100 - 1200 yuan/gram and that of the main Shanghai silver contract being 20500 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [4] 3.3 Gold and Silver Data - **Gold**: COMEX gold's open interest decreased by 2.47% to 40.98 million lots; LBMA gold's closing price rose 2.43% to 5209.70 US dollars/ounce; SHFE gold's open interest increased by 2.72% to 30.57 million lots, and the precipitation funds increased by 2.90% to 56.346 billion yuan; AuT + D's trading volume decreased by 12.13% to 40.35 tons, and the open interest decreased by 0.38% to 243.01 tons [8] - **Silver**: COMEX silver's open interest decreased by 9.67% to 11.33 million lots; LBMA silver's closing price rose 6.09% to 88.53 US dollars/ounce; SHFE silver's open interest decreased by 0.75% to 48.91 million lots, and the precipitation funds decreased by 2.94% to 29.393 billion yuan; AgT + D's trading volume decreased by 43.61% to 195.49 tons, and the open interest decreased by 1.11% to 2860.266 tons [8] 3.4 ETF Holdings - **Gold**: The holdings of iShare US remained unchanged at 494.04 tons; the holdings of GBS UK remained unchanged at 30.59 tons; the holdings of PHAU UK decreased by 0.10% to 54.41 tons; the holdings of GOLD UK increased by 0.12% to 29.96 tons; the holdings of SGBS Switzerland remained unchanged at 35.20 tons [64] - **Silver**: The closing price of silver ETFs fell 2.72% to 77.91 US dollars; the holdings of SLV US decreased by 0.74% to 15539.06 tons, and the precipitation funds decreased by 3.31% to 4.3073 billion US dollars; the trading volume decreased by 20.87% to 29.3077 million shares; the holdings of ETPMAG Australia remained unchanged at 487.41 tons; the holdings of PSLV Canada remained unchanged at 6747.37 tons; the holdings of CEF Canada remained unchanged at 1583.02 tons [64]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 3 月 12 日星期四 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | | | | | 集运: | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周三集运欧线全线上涨，主力 | EC2604 | 合约涨幅 | 7.15%。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、以外长称不寻求"无休止战争"，将与美协商对伊朗行动结束时间。以色列外 | 交部长萨尔 | 10 | 日称，以色列并不寻求与伊朗进行"无休止的战争"，将在适当时 | | | | ...

Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: March 12, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoint - The freight index futures fluctuated greatly due to the rapid change in the Middle - East situation. The market recovered today, possibly affected by the potential continuous impact of mine - laying in the Strait of Hormuz on navigation. Although the suspension of the Middle - East route may lead to an overflow of shipping capacity to other routes, the impact is limited, and the fundamental pattern of oversupply of shipping capacity on the European route remains unchanged. Short - term geopolitical conflicts have a greater impact on the sentiment of far - month contracts and the futures market, which may cause the index to strengthen periodically but is also prone to significant corrections. Attention should be paid to the convergence of spot and futures prices in the second half of March when approaching delivery, and there are opportunities to short - allocate off - season contracts 04 and 06 [7] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: The freight index futures fluctuated greatly due to the Middle - East situation. The market recovered today, possibly affected by the potential continuous impact of mine - laying in the Strait of Hormuz on navigation. After the Spring Festival, it is still the off - season for transportation. Short - term tariff issues are unlikely to trigger exporters to rush shipments, and the demand for photovoltaic exports is limited. The shipping capacity supply in March and April is still at a high level in the same period of history. Although the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz does not affect the European route, the Red Sea resumption plan has slowed down, which can continue to digest the shipping capacity pressure [7] - **Spot Price**: Leading shipping companies announced price increases in early February, but the prices in early March still mainly follow the late - February prices. The price increase in the off - season may be more for price stabilization and difficult to be actually implemented. Attention should be paid to the actual cargo - booking situation later [7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts have a greater impact on the sentiment of far - month contracts and the futures market, which may cause the index to strengthen periodically but is also prone to significant corrections. Attention should be paid to the convergence of spot and futures prices in the second half of March when approaching delivery, and there are opportunities to short - allocate off - season contracts 04 and 06 [7] 2. Industry News - **Overall Market**: The China Export Container Transport Market was affected by the sharp escalation of the geopolitical situation. The transport market faced challenges, the freight rates of relevant routes fluctuated sharply, and the comprehensive index rose. On March 6, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index was 1489.19 points, a 11.7% increase from the previous period [8] - **European Route**: The eurozone's unemployment rate in January fell slightly to 6.1%, indicating a stable economic growth. However, the uncertainty has increased significantly recently. The war in the Middle - East has pushed up energy prices, and the US tariff policy is undecided. The European economy still faces many uncertainties. The transport market on the Asia - Europe route was basically stable this week, with flat demand and a slight increase in freight rates. On March 6, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1452/TEU, a 2.3% increase from the previous period [8][9] - **Mediterranean Route**: The market situation was basically the same as that of the European route, and the spot - market booking prices continued to rise. On March 6, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2360/TEU, a 2.4% increase from the previous period [9] - **North American Route**: The US ADP employment in February increased by 63,000, better than market expectations. The employment market showed signs of stabilization. The US military operations in the Middle - East pushed up energy prices, which may lead to increased inflation pressure. The transport demand was weak this week, and the freight rates continued to rise. On March 6, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports were $1940/FEU and $2717/FEU respectively, with increases of 4.5% and 1.0% from the previous period [9] - **Other News**: Trump said the war with Iran might end soon. The number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz was increasing, and he considered taking over the strait. Affected by this news, US oil prices plunged. The G7 finance ministers held a phone meeting to discuss how to deal with the soaring oil prices. They basically reached a consensus not to release strategic oil reserves for the time being. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the Strait of Hormuz was closed. Goldman Sachs estimated that European natural gas prices might rise by 130% and oil prices by $18 per barrel. The US Supreme Court ruled that some US tariffs were illegal, and China urged the US to cancel them [9] 3. Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: On March 9, 2026, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 1545.46 points, an 82.06 - point increase (5.6%) from March 2; the SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1121.22 points, a 76.14 - point increase (7.3%) from March 2 [11] - **Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Quotes**: The report provides trading data for multiple contracts such as EC2604, EC2605, etc., including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: The report includes charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][19]

Core Viewpoint - Since early March, the geopolitical conflict in Iran has led to a significant increase in crude oil and chemical sectors, driven by rising energy costs and supply disruptions [3][7][34]. Group 1: Geopolitical Impact - The first round of impact comes from direct disruptions in Middle Eastern exports, while the second round involves increased shipping costs due to interruptions in Asian crude oil supply, affecting refinery loads across Asia [3][7][34]. - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 43.5% of China's crude oil imports, poses a substantial risk to domestic oil and refinery supply [8][7]. - The supply impact varies by chemical product, with methanol and polyethylene being notably affected, while the overall supply reduction is estimated to exceed 15% for certain chemicals [7][12][34]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The core influencing factor remains the contraction of supply, with a need to assess demand elasticity and potential delivery dynamics [3][12][34]. - Current estimates suggest that the reduction in Middle Eastern capacity and a 10% decrease in Asian refinery loads could significantly impact domestic supply levels [13][34]. - The demand elasticity for certain chemicals, such as pure benzene and styrene, remains high due to their downstream applications in high-value goods, which exhibit a greater tolerance for price increases [22][31][34]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to go long on pure benzene, styrene, PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol, with a focus on cost areas based on SC pricing [4][35]. - PX and PTA are highlighted as having greater rebound potential, while ethylene glycol's elasticity will depend on the evolution of supply issues [4][35]. - The overall assessment indicates that pure benzene, styrene, and PX have significant rebound potential, while ethylene glycol and chlor-alkali products are currently undervalued and may experience price corrections [32][34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The iron ore market is expected to experience short - term high - level narrow - range fluctuations and show a slightly stronger tendency. Although the iron ore fundamentals face challenges such as disturbances in the shipping end and high inventory pressure, the positive basis and the continuation of the BACK structure limit the short - term downward space. Attention should be paid to further tests near the upper pressure level [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures prices: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated slightly stronger during the day, closing at 787.5 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.45% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 193,000 lots, the holding volume was 475,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.229 billion yuan. The short - term support is around 770, and the short - term pressure is around 795. It may fluctuate narrowly between the short - term pressure and support levels in the near future [1]. - Spot prices: The mainstream varieties of port spot, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, remained unchanged at 773 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder remained unchanged at 655 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was 104.2 (+0.3) US dollars/ton. The swap continued to strengthen while the spot prices were unchanged [1]. - Basis and spread: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 803.8 yuan/ton, and the basis was 16.3 yuan/ton, with a slight contraction. The spread between May and September contracts of iron ore was 29 yuan, and the spread between September and January contracts was 18 yuan [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Overseas mine shipments decreased significantly on a month - on - month basis, with declines in Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries. The arrivals this period increased significantly as the previous high shipments gradually arrived. The port inventory of iron ore increased slightly on a month - on - month basis, the berthing inventory increased, and the factory inventory decreased slightly. Although the shipping has recovered, there are still expectations of disturbances, and the high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term [2]. - Demand side: The number of blast furnace overhauls increased, and there were environmental protection restrictions in some areas during the Two Sessions. The molten iron output decreased significantly on a month - on - month basis, the steel mill profitability rate declined, and the复产 rhythm of molten iron was postponed. However, it is likely to recover seasonally later, and attention should be paid to the support strength of peak - season demand [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: After the release of the "Report", the policy expectation of the market for the active policy in the first half of the year to support the economic start of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will gradually converge, and then it will gradually turn to the verification stage of real data [4]. - Overseas: For the expectation of US dollar monetary policy, it is important to judge the stage of the current geopolitical conflict, which will affect the market's judgment duration of inflation and economy. The Fed will only react when the long - term inflation expectation changes. It is too early to discuss the duration of the war at present, and a neutral scenario is recommended as the benchmark for asset allocation portfolio construction. In the short term, it is advisable to appropriately manage the positions of risk assets such as equities and commodities [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and cast aluminum may all be in a stage of increasing supply and demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 25,215.00 yuan/ton, up 335.00 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,869.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan. The LME aluminum three - month quotation was 3,400.00 US dollars/ton, up 12.00 US dollars. The LME aluminum inventory was 452,375.00 tons, down 2250.00 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 25,030.00 yuan/ton, up 560.00 yuan; the spot price of alumina was 2,630.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan. The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 25,100.00 yuan/ton, up 300.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina production in the current month was 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons. The import volume of aluminum scrap and waste in China was 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum was 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the export volume was 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons. The production of aluminum products was 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 27.08 million tons, down 39.41 million tons; the export volume of non - wrought aluminum and aluminum products was 42.96 million tons, down 11.04 million tons. Automobile production was 3.4115 million vehicles, down 0.1075 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 28%, down 0.0601%; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.83, down 0.0351 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In the first two months of this year, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched the industrial data foundation - building action [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - The alumina main contract fluctuated strongly, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The fundamentals are in a stage of increasing supply and demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - The Shanghai Aluminum main contract fluctuated strongly, with increasing positions, spot discount, and strengthening basis. The fundamentals are in a situation of increasing supply and demand, and the aluminum ingot inventory accumulates seasonally. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices [2]. 3.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy View Summary - The cast aluminum main contract fluctuated strongly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The fundamentals may be in a stage of increasing supply and demand, and the downstream purchasing willingness drives the industrial inventory to decline. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices [2].