基本面： 周一（5月19日）亚盘时段，现货黄金跳空高开后继续震荡，盘中最高再次测试3250一线压力后徘徊，目前交投于3220美元附近。周五（5月16日）金价周五 一度大跌超过2%，致周线下跌近4%，受累于贸易协议带来的风险偏好上升，创下去年11月以来最糟糕的一周。贸易战的缓解使整个市场的风险偏好回升。 这种转变促使期货交易商获利了结，尤其是在黄金市场，并引发了长达一周的结清仓位潮。 上周早些时候，两大经济体暂停贸易战90天，同时双方将制定结束针锋相对的贸易战的细节。因此，华尔街三大股指实现周线上涨，这主要是由于在经历了 长期的不确定性之后，投资者的风险偏好不断增强。与此同时，美国近期通胀数据放缓，加上经济数据弱于预期，巩固了美联储今年将进一步降息的预期。 上周公布的4月份美国消费者通胀率的上升低于预期，消费者价格指数(CPI)4月份上涨了0.2%，使全年涨幅从2.4%降至2.3%。这份报告是个 "好消息"。"对大 多数消费者和企业来说，2025年的通胀应该是可控的。市场预计美联储今年将降息两次，从9月份开始。预计美联储今年将降息56个基点，低于4月份超过 100个基点的预期，当时对特朗普关税影响的担忧最为严重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent high-level trade talks between China and the U.S. have led to significant progress, resulting in a notable decline in gold prices, which reflects reduced market concerns over trade tensions [2] Group 1: Trade Developments - The U.S. and China announced the cancellation or suspension of most tariffs, including the removal of 91% of tariffs and the suspension of 24% of "reciprocal tariffs," alleviating fears of escalating trade friction [2] - The easing of trade tensions has diminished the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, contributing to a drop in international spot gold prices to around $3,215 per ounce, with a single-day decline exceeding 3% [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Domestic gold jewelry prices also fell, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang seeing a decrease of 16-20 yuan per gram, bringing prices back to the "90s" [2] - The market's expectations for delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a rising U.S. dollar index have further pressured gold prices [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Additional factors such as the ceasefire in the Middle East and the de-escalation of the India-Pakistan conflict have further reduced safe-haven demand, intensifying gold sell-offs [2] - Despite the easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, uncertainties remain, including potential new frictions related to U.S. manufacturing repatriation strategies and ongoing geopolitical risks like the Russia-Ukraine situation [2] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The ongoing U.S. debt ceiling issue poses challenges to the credibility of the dollar, while a global trend of "de-dollarization" is leading to strong central bank demand for gold [2] - In the first quarter of 2025, global official gold reserves increased by 244 tons, providing long-term support for gold prices [2] - If inflation rises or the Federal Reserve resumes rate cuts due to economic pressures, gold's anti-inflation properties may become more prominent [3]

Investment Rating - The report suggests to pay attention to Lockheed Martin and Rheinmetall, while remaining positive on Safran, Howmet Aerospace, Rolls-Royce, VSEC, and LOAR [13] Core Insights - The long-standing antagonism between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir issue has led to multiple wars, with the recent April 2025 attack escalating tensions. The subsequent military actions and ceasefire agreement indicate ongoing instability despite international mediation efforts [2][10] - The incident involving the downing of an Indian Rafale fighter jet highlights vulnerabilities in India's air defense capabilities, potentially prompting increased investment in electronic warfare and modernization of the Indian Air Force [3][11] - Geopolitical conflicts typically stimulate defense spending, which may boost the aerospace and defense industry, particularly in India, as seen after the 2019 Balakot conflict [4][12] Summary by Sections Incident Overview - On May 10, 2025, a Pakistani military operation resulted in the downing of an Indian Rafale fighter jet, part of India's response to a terrorist attack in Kashmir. This incident has led to heightened military readiness and international diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire [1][9] Military and Defense Implications - The loss of the Rafale fighter may lead India to diversify its fighter aircraft portfolio and increase domestic manufacturing under the "Make in India" initiative. The incident is expected to drive growth in India's defense budget, particularly for air force modernization and maintenance [3][11][12] International Supplier Opportunities - International suppliers with contracts in India, such as Safran, Rolls-Royce, and Lockheed Martin, are likely to benefit from increased defense spending and procurement activities resulting from the heightened geopolitical tensions [5][6][12]

廖市无双：补缺过后，大势结构如何演化？20250511 摘要 如何看待当前市场风险和机会？ 当前市场风险主要集中在尖峰筹码带形成的阻力区域，即 3,357 点附近。在此 区域内可能会有解套筹码涌出，对指数构成压力。同时，上证指数和恒生科技 指数均显示出需要进行回踩确认动作。例如，上证指数预计将在 3,040 至 3,357 点之间波动，而恒生科技从 6,185 跌至 4,300，下行深度较大，需要通 过 B 浪反弹确认 C 浪调整。 机会方面，由于人民币升值及港股表现对节后 A 股 走势产生积极影响，加之中美谈话利好叠加，使得近期市场表现较为强劲。投 资者可以关注短期内由于这些因素带来的交易机会，但需谨慎应对潜在阻力区 域及震荡行情。 本周市场出现了哪些显著变化？ 本周市场经历了显著的波动，尤其是周五出现了冲高回落的情况，这符合预期。 自 4 月 7 日以来，市场一直在反弹，但随着中美双方刚开始谈判，关税战仍在 持续，仅有沟通渠道，但结果尚不明确。在这种情况下，大盘已经转回，这是 一种非常强劲的表现。之前一些套牢筹码离场是可以理解的，因为劫后余生和 大的不确定性仍然存在。本周市场结构需要仔细分析。前两个交易日 ...

Group 1: Copper Industry - The investment rating for the copper industry is currently neutral, with LME copper prices increasing by 0.89% to $9,439.00 per ton and Shanghai copper prices rising by 0.30% to 77,500 yuan per ton [1][13]. - Supply-side data indicates that the import copper concentrate processing fee index has dropped to -$43.11 per ton, while Codelco's copper production increased by 14.8% year-on-year to 123,200 tons in March [1][13]. - Domestic copper rod enterprises' operating rates have decreased to 62.79%, down 17.10 percentage points week-on-week, primarily due to high copper prices leading to a significant reduction in new orders [1][13]. Group 2: Aluminum Industry - The investment rating for the aluminum industry is neutral, with LME aluminum prices decreasing by 0.66% to $2,418.00 per ton and Shanghai aluminum prices falling by 1.63% to 19,600 yuan per ton [2][14]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory stands at 620,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons compared to earlier in the week, while aluminum oxide weekly operating rates have been adjusted down by 0.07 percentage points to 79.67% [2][14]. - Downstream demand remains weak, with companies primarily adopting a wait-and-see approach and purchasing based on demand [2][14]. Group 3: Gold Industry - The investment rating for the gold industry is positive, with COMEX gold prices decreasing by 0.43% to $3,329.10 per ounce, influenced by international trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts [3][15]. - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, indicating increased uncertainty in the U.S. economic outlook [3][15]. - SPDR gold holdings have decreased by 1.45 tons to 937.94 tons, reflecting market dynamics amid geopolitical developments [3][15]. Group 4: Rare Earth Industry - The investment rating for the rare earth industry is positive, with prices rising due to export controls and supply disruptions from Myanmar [4][32]. - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide has increased by 3.65% to 423,300 yuan per ton, while dysprosium oxide has risen by 9.87% to 1,670,000 yuan per ton [4][32]. - The overall supply-demand situation is improving, with expectations of moderate quota growth and increased focus on rare earth resources amid global geopolitical shifts [4][32]. Group 5: Lithium and Cobalt Industries - The investment rating for the lithium industry is neutral, with lithium carbonate prices decreasing by 3.35% to 66,000 yuan per ton [5]. - Cobalt prices remain stable, with the price of cobalt at 242,000 yuan per ton, reflecting steady demand in the market [5]. - Nickel prices have increased by 2.7% to $15,800 per ton, indicating a positive trend in the nickel market [5].

金十数据整理：印巴冲突最新局势跟踪（5月9日） 2. 巴基斯坦：印度无人机持续侵入巴基斯坦境内，巴方击落了29架印度无人机，巴基斯坦克什米尔地区 有5名平民遇难，至少29人受伤；巴方未采取任何针对印控克什米尔地区或国际边界以外地区的进攻行 动。 其他情况： 1. 交易员：印度央行可能抛售美元以支撑面临压力的卢比。 2. 印度方面：24个机场暂停民用飞行运营；提高所有港口、码头和造船厂的安全等级。 冲突进展： 1. 印度："朱砂行动"目前仍在进行中。巴方使用无人机和导弹袭击印北部和西部的多个军事目标，均被 印方防空系统挫败；拉贾斯坦邦杰伊瑟尔梅尔（Jaisalmer）传出爆炸声。随后，印控克什米尔所有地区 和拉贾斯坦邦西部地区停电。 3. 巴基斯坦方面：经济事务部X账户已被黑客入侵；向国际合作伙伴请求更多贷款；缓和局势的责任在 于印度。印度和巴基斯坦之间已经在国家安全委员会层面进行了接触；巴基斯坦升级局势的说法"完全 荒谬"；巴方每天都在与沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔就缓解与印度的危机进行沟通。 4. 英国方面：与印度外交部长通话，讨论内容集中在"打击恐怖主义，必须零容忍"问题上。 5. 中国方面：提醒中国公民密切关注局 ...

巴基斯坦股市，大幅杀跌！ 5月8日，巴基斯坦股市暴跌，KSE-100指数大跌超6900点，跌幅超过6%，KSE-30指数跌超7%。随后，巴基斯 坦股市暂停交易。在暂停交易1个小时后，巴基斯坦股市恢复交易，不过盘中跌幅继续扩大，巴基斯坦KSE-30 指数一度大跌8.81%，为2008年以来最大跌幅；KSE-100指数盘中最高下跌超8400点，跌幅达到7.64%，该指数 最低触及101599点。截至记者发稿时，KSE-30指数跌幅仍接近7%，KSE-100指数跌6.5%。 当前，印巴局势高度紧张。巴基斯坦三军新闻局局长乔杜里5月8日证实，印度使用无人机对巴基斯坦多地发动 了袭击，巴基斯坦武装部队已在不同地点击落12架印度无人机。 BMA资本管理的国际股票交易主管Ali Raza说："印度无人机在巴基斯坦被击落的报道显示紧张局势升级。如 果不能实现停火或外交上有进展，紧张局势仍将持续，这对投资者情绪不利。" 印度股市8日当天的跌幅虽然不大，但印度的汇率却大幅跳水，印度卢比对美元大跌近1%，至85.65。 巴基斯坦股市大跌 继昨日大幅波动后，巴基斯坦股市今日继续大跌。其中，巴基斯坦股市基准KSE-30指数大跌7.13 ...

| | | 贵金属产业日报 2025-05-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 803.5 | 8.7 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8252 | 17 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 188308 | 60901 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 230354 | -1662 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 104452 | 7343 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 129934 | 5158 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 15648 | 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 940981 | -18804 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 796.2 | 3.89 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 8187 | -49 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -7.3 | -2.41 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/千克) ...

Core Viewpoint - The military industry sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased defense budgets globally, particularly in the EU and Asia [1][2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The military ETF (512660) saw a substantial increase, with a peak intraday rise of nearly 5% and a trading volume exceeding 1 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - Over 70 out of 80 component stocks in the military ETF reported gains, with notable stocks like AVIC Chengfei hitting the daily limit up [1]. - The military sector's pre-receivable accounts reached a record high of 177.2 billion yuan, reflecting a robust demand recovery [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influence - Recent military actions between India and Pakistan have heightened geopolitical risks, which may lead to a reevaluation of military stock valuations due to increased "geopolitical risk premium" [1]. - The EU's shift towards autonomous defense procurement aims for 50% of defense equipment to be sourced internally by 2030, which could enhance the industry's growth prospects [2]. Group 3: Financial Outlook - Despite a projected decline in revenue and profit growth for the military sector in 2024, the first quarter of 2025 shows a narrowing of profit decline, indicating potential stabilization [3]. - The military sector is expected to recover gradually as orders are fulfilled and delivered, supported by national defense goals and domestic demand [6]. Group 4: Future Trends - Emerging themes in the military sector, such as commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy, are anticipated to gain traction, further stimulating market activity [7]. - The military industry is expected to benefit from ongoing recovery in fundamentals, with new industry trends providing additional catalysts for investment opportunities [7].

Macroeconomic Overview - The global economic and political landscape is complex, significantly impacting markets and international relations [1] - The US faces multiple pressures, with a decline in 2-year Treasury yields influenced by trade deficits and corporate pessimism, raising concerns about the impact of trade wars [1] - Traders expect the Federal Reserve to implement three rate cuts this year, with the first potentially in September, although investors remain worried about insufficient policy easing and uncertain market outlook [1] - Recent international trade developments include trade agreements between India and the UK, and the US and the UK, with some UK goods exempt from tariffs imposed by Trump [1] - In the energy market, OPEC+ unexpectedly increased production, leading to a drop in oil prices, with Saudi Arabia warning overproduction among member countries [1] - Political developments include Ukraine approving a mineral agreement with the US, and Oman reaching a freedom of navigation agreement with the US and Yemen [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, with expectations of no change in rates this time but potential future volatility [1] - Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts between Israel and Houthi forces, and between India and Pakistan, are also areas of concern for investors [1] US Dollar Index - The US dollar index showed a downward trend, with a high of 100.077 and a low of 99.143, closing at 99.239 [2] - The dollar index faced resistance at 99.60, and traders are advised to be cautious until a breakout occurs [2] - The index is currently in a low-level consolidation phase, with key support at 98.90 [2] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced an overall increase, reaching a high of 3434.61 and a low of 3323.14, closing at 3430.31 [4] - The price is supported by the daily line, and further upward movement is anticipated unless a significant drop occurs [4] - The market is advised to monitor the 3340-3350 range, maintaining a bullish outlook unless this range is broken [7] Euro and US Dollar Exchange Rate - The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate showed an upward trend, with a low of 1.1279 and a high of 1.1380, closing at 1.1368 [7] - The market is supported at 1.0800 for long-term positions, while short-term fluctuations are being monitored around 1.1320-1.1380 [9]