Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - After the cease - fire agreement, the market's risk - aversion sentiment decreased, the geopolitical premium was quickly squeezed out, the domestic crude oil declined, and methanol also corrected. In the future, the market will no longer focus on the escalation of the conflict, and methanol will gradually return to its own fundamentals. Currently, the domestic methanol supply - demand change is small and the driving force is weak. The possible future impact lies in imports. Although the conflict has affected Iran's methanol supply, the overall arrival volume in South America is stable, and the high operating rate of inland coal enterprises has made up for the loss of Middle - East device maintenance to some extent. Last week, the port generally accumulated inventory. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate, and the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500 [1] Summary According to the Directory 1. Price and Basis - **Futures Prices**: MA01 in Taicang was 2413 yuan/ton (- 0.25%), in Guangdong was 2435 yuan/ton (- 1.22%); MA05 was 2325 yuan/ton (- 0.13%); MA09 was 2381 yuan/ton (- 0.50%) compared to June 27, 2025 [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, it was 2230 yuan/ton (- 1.33%); in Shaanxi, 2057.50 yuan/ton (- 0.36%); in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia, 1947.50 yuan/ton (- 0.38%) [1] - **Basis**: Taicang spot - MA was 377 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Prices**: Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 430 yuan/ton, 490 yuan/ton, and 495 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: In Hohhot, it was 3.94 yuan/cubic meter; in Chongqing, 3.30 yuan/cubic meter. Both remained unchanged [1] 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: Coal - to - methanol in Chongqing was 493.40 yuan/ton, unchanged; natural gas - to - methanol was - 460 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - **Downstream Profit**: Northwest MTO was 562 yuan/ton (+ 2.07%); East China MTO was - 1183.07 yuan/ton (+ 19.69%); acetic acid was 347 yuan/ton (+ 21.00%); MTBE and Yilangtan remained unchanged; formaldehyde was - 262.40 yuan/ton (- 3.96%) [1] 4. Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated narrowly, opened at 2389 yuan/ton, closed at 2381 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 863081 lots and a position of 759974 lots, showing a reduction in volume and position [1] - **Foreign**: 90% of the methanol plants in a Middle - East country are restarting. Attention should be paid to the later start - up and shipping and loading [1] 5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA oscillated in the range and closed at 2371 at night. Considering the current situation, the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500 [1]

经济导报记者｜刘勇 从需求端来看，目前美国夏季出行高峰仍在推进，传统旺季提振燃油需求，需求季节性增强。此外，美 国与欧洲及日本的关税新政谈判也在推进，进展相对积极，也释放积极信号，需求方面或有改善。 今年以来，国内油价已经历12轮调整，分别为"五涨五跌两搁浅"。本轮调价过后，2025年的调价格局将 变为"六涨五跌两搁浅"。 本次调价对于私家车主和物流企业来说成本将小幅增加。以油箱容量50升的普通私家车计算，此次调价 后，私家车加满一箱油将多花9元左右；按市区百公里耗油8升的车型，平均每行驶100公里燃油费用增 加1.44元左右。对满载50吨百公里油耗40升的大型物流运输车辆而言，平均每行驶100公里燃油费用多 花7.6元左右。 展望后市，在地缘局势缓和及OPEC+增产的背景下，国际油价存利空压力。整体来看，预计下一轮成 品油调价（窗口将在7月15日24时开启）下调的概率较大。 7月1日，国内成品油调价窗口如期打开。经济导报记者获悉，7月1日24时将上调汽柴油零售限价，其中 汽油每吨上调235元，柴油每吨上调225元。折合升价，92号汽油每升涨0.18元，95号汽油及0号柴油每 升涨0.19元。至此，国内成品油 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Investors are closely monitoring trade negotiations as the deadline for Trump's proposed "reciprocal tariffs" approaches, with indications that the negotiations may not be as severe as in April [2] - The proposed "Big and Beautiful" bill passed the House on May 22 and narrowly passed a procedural vote in the Senate on June 28, with modifications requiring another House vote; the CBO predicts a $4.5 trillion revenue reduction and a $3.3 trillion increase in the fiscal deficit by 2034 [2] - Technically, gold has been in a correction phase since April 22, with a potential rebound if it stabilizes above $3,300, targeting $3,360 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Despite a verbal ceasefire between Israel and Iran, tensions remain high, with Trump threatening further military action against Iran and Iran halting inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency [4] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 80%, with a 92.5% chance of a rate cut in September, increasing market bets on future rate cuts, which could boost oil demand [5] - OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production, leading to potential oversupply in the oil market; if global economic conditions improve, it may bolster market confidence [5] - Technically, oil prices have shown a downward trend, with resistance at $67 and a potential drop to $60 if prices fall below $64 [5] Group 3: Nikkei 225 and Copper Market - The Nikkei 225 index has been on a strong upward trend, breaking the highest price since July 18, 2024, but caution is advised against chasing further gains [7] - Copper prices have been fluctuating since early April, with a potential shift in trend; support is noted at $4.88 and resistance at $5.06 [7]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 尽管降息预期增加，但是关税风险、地缘局势在上周减少，黄金价格大幅回调。， | | | | 中长期不确定性仍然较多，长期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【760-790】 | | | | 白银跟随黄金大幅调整。目前，金银比价目前回归正常区间，目前白银基本面 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 变化不大，盘面关注 8700 附近表现，考虑到白银的品种特性弹性较大，操作上 | | | | 做好仓位控制。【8600-8900】 | | | | 特朗普威胁提前任命新美联储主席，降息预期走高，美元指数走弱，铜围绕 8 万关 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 口震荡盘整，建议前期铜多单继续持有，部分可逢高止盈兑现，警惕铜高位回落风 | | | | 险，中长期我们对铜依旧看好。沪铜关注区间【79000，81000】 | | | | 宏观和板块情绪积极，秘鲁大型锌冶炼减产，锌延续反弹，震荡走强，关注上 | | 锌 | 反弹 | 方缺口压力位，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注区间【22200， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the rubber industry is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term logic of rubber has been falsified, and new driving factors need to be awaited. The overall price range is adjusted from the initial forecast of 15,000 - 19,000 yuan/ton to 12,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton. The upward trend may be driven by supply - side factors such as weather and policies, while the downward trend may be dragged by macro factors like tariff policies and global economic recession expectations [8][86] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Review of the performance of Shanghai rubber and No. 20 rubber - In the first half of 2025, the natural rubber market fluctuated sharply. In Q1, it remained in a high - level sideways pattern, and in Q2, prices dropped from the high level due to factors such as increased exports from overseas rubber - producing countries, a significant increase in domestic imports, and US reciprocal tariffs. In Q1, the RU index oscillated between 16,600 - 18,000 yuan/ton. In January, prices fluctuated, with raw material prices dropping significantly compared to Q4, and increasing domestic imports and seasonal inventory accumulation suppressing prices. In February, prices rose after the Spring Festival due to seasonal production cuts overseas. In March, the rumored state reserve purchase had limited impact on the market. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival in Q2, the "reciprocal tariff" in the US affected the market, and the increase in import data in March (18% month - on - month and 20.6% year - on - year) also influenced prices. The significant increase in exports from rubber - producing countries and domestic imports in the first half of the year falsified the previous long - term logic, and prices fell back to the level of the same period in 2024 [14][15] 1.2 Review of spreads and price differences - In the first half of the year, state reserve purchases and capital actions strongly disturbed the spreads of Shanghai rubber and No. 20 rubber. In mid - April, after the rumor of the state reserve purchasing 2024 full - latex warehouse receipts, the 9 - 5 and 1 - 9 spreads of Shanghai rubber narrowed rapidly. The 9 - 5 spread even reached a negative level, and the 1 - 9 spread dropped from over 1,000 yuan/ton to below 700 yuan/ton. Later, the 9 - 5 spread gradually recovered, but the 1 - 9 spread remained at a relatively low level at the end of June. For No. 20 rubber, in Q1, the spot was tight, and the spreads showed a backwardation structure. In Q2, although imports increased, capital actions led to the cancellation of warehouse receipts, and the spreads strengthened again. By the end of June, the spreads weakened but still showed a slight premium. In the third quarter, as production increased, the spreads may return to the previous premium pattern [19][23] 2. Macro - fundamentals 2.1 The Fed lowers economic expectations, raises inflation and unemployment expectations, and internal differences widen - The Fed has paused rate cuts for the fourth consecutive time, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50% and the monthly balance - sheet reduction limit at $40 billion. Due to the uncertainty caused by tariffs, the Fed remains cautious. The June economic forecast solidifies the "stagflation" expectation, with economic growth being lowered and unemployment and inflation being raised. The Fed believes that tariffs will have a "one - time" impact on inflation. The internal differences in the Fed are mainly due to the uncertainty of US tariff negotiations and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East [24][27] 2.2 Geopolitical situation and tariff policies disrupt the global economy, increasing uncertainty - US tariff policies disrupt global trade, causing a 0.2% year - on - year decline in global merchandise trade volume in 2025, a 2.9 - percentage - point drop compared to before the tariff war. Multiple international institutions have lowered their global economic growth forecasts for 2025. The recent escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict in the Middle East has raised concerns about oil supply disruptions, pushing up oil prices. This has put central banks in a dilemma between fighting inflation and stabilizing growth [28][34] 3. Upstream and downstream of the industrial chain 3.1 Upstream supply and raw materials - The total planting area of ANRPC is at a high level with a slight downward trend. The new planting area has increased in some countries but cannot offset the reduction in the original planting area. The supply - side output price elasticity still exists. In 2024, global natural rubber production increased by 2.8% year - on - year. Emerging rubber - producing countries such as Côte d'Ivoire have seen rapid growth, partially offsetting concerns about the decline in traditional rubber - producing countries. The second half of the year is the peak production season for natural rubber, and the supply is expected to increase [35][47] 3.2 Imports and inventories - In the first half of 2025, domestic imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased significantly. In May, the total imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 607,000 tons, a 25.2% increase compared to the same period in 2024, and the cumulative imports from January to May were 3.476 million tons, a 23.5% increase. As of June 15, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased slightly. The absolute value of domestic inventory is still at a moderately high level. With the increase in new rubber supply in the second half of the year, imports are expected to rise, and the inventory reduction in the middle - stream may slow down before the third quarter [50][52] 3.3 Downstream demand - Tire production growth is slowing down. In May 2025, the output of Chinese tire casings decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The production of both all - steel and semi - steel tires declined. The all - steel tire market was supported by policies and exports, but the replacement market was weak. The semi - steel tire market faced increasing production and sales pressure due to rising inventory and new production capacity coming online. In the automotive market, production and sales increased in the first five months of 2025, with the passenger car and new - energy vehicle markets performing well. The heavy - truck market showed a slight increase in sales, mainly due to the implementation of the old - for - new policy [57][68] 4. Cost - profit and spread analysis 4.1 Cost - profit analysis - The losses of Thai latex and No. 20 rubber production have been partially repaired. Since May, continuous rain in the Thai production area has affected tapping, leading to an increase in raw material prices. Factories are stocking EUDR raw materials, and the price difference between EUDR raw materials and general raw materials has narrowed compared to last year [72] 4.2 Futures - spot spread analysis - In 2025, the non - standard arbitrage spread has fully returned. Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the price of dark - colored rubber has been strong, and the spread between dark - and light - colored rubber has widened. In May 2025, NR was significantly stronger than RU, and the spread between them reached a multi - year high. The spread between RU2509 and mixed rubber also fully returned, with RU2509 trading at a rare discount to the mixed - rubber spot in late May. Later, attention should be paid to the spread trading opportunities such as going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509, and going long on RU and short on NR [75][85]

Group 1 - Gold experienced a downward trend, reaching a low of 3245, influenced by optimistic trade agreements and stable geopolitical conditions, reducing its appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][4] - The market is expected to see significant changes this week, with attention on non-farm payroll data and central bank leaders' speeches, particularly from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [2][4] - The recent price movement of gold from May 30 to June 30 shows a cycle of highs and lows, with a peak at 3451 and a low at 3245, indicating a potential adjustment phase before a possible recovery [4][5] Group 2 - Domestic gold prices have also seen a significant decline, with Shanghai gold dropping from 793 to 762, but the bullish trend remains intact, suggesting a potential rebound if key support levels are maintained [6] - The focus for domestic gold this week is on support levels of 760 for Shanghai gold and 755 for Rongtong gold, with potential upward movement if these levels hold [6] - International silver has shown a rebound after two declines, maintaining a bullish trend, with support at 35.2 and targets at 36.5 and 37 for potential trading strategies [6][7] Group 3 - The Shanghai silver contract continues to exhibit a bullish trend, with key support at 8600 and targets at 8900 and 9000, indicating opportunities for long positions [7] - International crude oil has shown limited volatility after a significant drop, with a focus on the 64 support level for potential rebounds, while the medium-term outlook remains bullish [7][8] - Domestic fuel oil has undergone considerable adjustments but is still viewed as bullish in the long term, with expectations of reaching higher points around 3000 and 3200 [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The precious metals market declined under pressure due to the easing of geopolitical and trade tariff concerns, despite the warming of interest - rate cut expectations during the week. The medium - to long - term trend may be bullish, but the short - term technical pattern is weak and under pressure. The report suggests maintaining the idea of buying on dips [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, gold prices in the precious metals market declined, and silver prices were volatile. Geopolitical tensions eased as the Iran - Israel conflict in the Middle East calmed down, reducing the safe - haven demand for precious metals. The trade tariff deadline was postponed, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September increased [1]. 3.2 Fund and Inventory - Long - term fund positions: The SPDR Gold ETF's weekly holdings increased by 4.58 tons to 954.82 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF's weekly holdings increased by 115.91 tons to 14,866.18 tons. - Short - term fund positions: As of June 24, according to the CFTC report, gold non - commercial net long positions decreased by 5,644 contracts to 195,004 contracts, and silver non - commercial net long positions decreased by 4,227 contracts to 62,947 contracts. - Inventory: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 16.3 tons to 1,152.3 tons, COMEX silver inventory increased by 112.7 tons to 15,523.5 tons, SHFE gold inventory increased by 69 kg to 18.24 tons, SHFE silver inventory increased by 65.43 tons to 1,295.7 tons, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory decreased by 21 tons to 1,357.8 tons [2]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - Data: Pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls report on Thursday night. - Events: The US Senate will vote on the "Great Beauty" bill, and several Fed officials will give speeches. The COMEX precious metals trading will end early on Friday due to the Independence Day holiday [4]. 3.4 Price and Related Ratios - SHFE gold main contract price was 766.4 yuan/gram, down 1.15%; SGX gold TD price was 763.08 yuan/gram, down 1.32%; CME gold main contract price was 3,286.1 dollars/ounce, down 1.66%. - SHFE silver main contract price was 8,792 yuan/kg, down 0.05%; SGX silver TD price was 8,748 yuan/kg, down 0.28%; CME silver main contract price was 36.165 dollars/ounce, down 1.05%. - CME gold - silver ratio was 90.8641, down 0.61% [6]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The US dollar index was 97.2616, down 0.05%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1643, unchanged. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 43,819.27 points, up 1%; WTI crude oil spot price was 65.52 dollars/barrel, up 0.43%. - LmeS copper 03 price was 9,896 dollars/ton, up 1.74%; 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.29%, up 0.7%; 10 - year US real interest rate was 2%, up 1.01%; 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread was 0.56%, unchanged [17].

张尧浠：避险减弱降息升温、黄金走低下方空间有限 黄金市场上周：国际黄金再度回落走低收跌，并收线至5-10周均线下方，打破了近数周的震荡上趋势支撑，同时附图指标信号高位死叉看空发展，暗示后 市将有望继续走低进一步触及中轨线支撑或更低的目标。 具体走势上，金价自周初开于3389.20美元/盎司，变先行录得当周高点3395.88美元，之后遇阻回落，周二进一步走低一度触及3300美元下方，虽周三周四 止跌震荡回升，但多头力度未能持稳加强重返阻力上方，使得周五时段再度面临抛售压力，并跌破60日均线支撑，录得当周低点3256.07美元，最终有所 止跌回升，收于3273.18美元，周振幅139.81美元，收跌116.02美元，跌幅3.42%。 影响上，受周末地缘局势的升级而高开，但动力未能持续，其特朗普称伊以将实现全面停火，以及后续市场对于中东局势认为是在"表演"而避险情绪反应 减弱，再加上鲍威尔暗示他将抵制7月降息，称在考虑降息前需要更多时间，打压金价转回落连续走低； 虽然受到60日均线支撑附近的买盘推动，以及特朗普表示将在三四人中选出下任美联储主席，令市场普遍预期美联储将很快恢复其降息周期，有所止跌震 荡，但受到技术阻 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Performance - On June 27, the domestic commodity futures market saw more gains than losses, with polysilicon leading with over a 3% increase, followed by焦煤 and industrial silicon with over 4% gains [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1377.97 points, up 5.01 points or 0.36% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1910.45 points, up 6.95 points or 0.37% [1] Group 2: Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon - Polysilicon surged over 6% on June 27, driven by positive market sentiment and news of production cuts from major manufacturers in Xinjiang, impacting daily output by approximately 1500 to 1700 tons [2] - Industrial silicon also experienced a price rebound, closing above 8000 yuan per ton, but faces potential supply increases due to the resumption of production in the southwestern region [3] Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke continued their upward trend, with coking coal reaching a new high in over a month, supported by improved supply-demand dynamics due to production cuts amid safety inspections [3] - Despite the rebound, the overall supply-demand balance for coking coal and coke remains tilted towards oversupply, limiting the potential for further price increases [3] Group 4: Oil and Gold Market Trends - SC crude oil contracts fell for the fourth consecutive day, with a decline of 1.37%, influenced by improved market risk appetite and a weaker dollar [4] - Gold prices also decreased, with the Shanghai gold main contract dropping by 0.87%, although expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve provide some support [5]

Economic Outlook - The US is at the tail end of an economic recovery cycle while entering a new AI technology phase, with capital expenditure in the AI sector stabilizing[3] - Short-term market impacts are expected to be limited, with focus remaining on economic cycles, tariffs, fiscal policies, and geopolitical situations in the second half of 2025[3] Tariff Analysis - As of May, US tariff revenue was $22.17 billion, annualizing to approximately $266 billion, significantly lower than Navarro's estimate of $600 billion[3] - The weighted average tariff rate is projected to rise to 16.1%, potentially generating $665.91 billion in annual tariff revenue based on 2024 import levels of $4.1 trillion[3] - Tariff impacts on inflation may begin to manifest in Q3, with historical data suggesting a high pass-through rate to consumers[3] Fiscal Stability - The overall fiscal impact from the "Big Beautiful Bill" is expected to be limited, with a projected increase in the federal deficit of approximately $2.8 trillion over the next decade, but most of this will not materialize in 2025[3] - The expected interest expenditure in May was $86 billion, indicating significant ongoing fiscal pressures[3] - The upcoming maturity of US debt is not substantial, reducing concerns over debt sustainability in the near term[3] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could lead to significant inflationary pressures and complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions[3] - Two scenarios are outlined: one where escalating tensions lead to higher oil prices and potential stagflation, and another where stabilization allows for possible interest rate cuts by the Fed[3] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on volatility trading strategies using tools like VIX and SIV, and considering domestic companies benefiting from reduced foreign competition due to tariffs[3] - In a stagflation scenario, commodities like gold may perform well, while in a shallow recession scenario, small-cap growth stocks and long-term US Treasuries may be favored[3] Risk Factors - Global economic performance may underperform expectations, leading to pressure on US equities and other risk assets[3] - Inflation could prove stickier than anticipated, complicating the Fed's rate-cutting plans[3] - Escalation of geopolitical conflicts could trigger rapid market volatility and inflationary pressures[3]