今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】本周Mysteel统计全国110家洗煤厂样本：开 工率62.33%较上期增2.60%；日均产量52.59万吨增2.00万吨； 原煤库存300.77万吨减11.40万吨；精煤库存197.07万吨减 17.91万吨。评：近日炼焦煤市场稳中偏强运行，价格多数有所 上涨，煤矿成交情况也较好，多数煤矿已经出现预售情况，多 数煤矿端库存已经不存在压力，煤矿挺价意愿较强。终端补库 带动了投机氛围，对市场情绪有一定提振作用，但产地端煤矿 处于复产节奏当中，后续重点关注煤矿产量以及下游焦钢企业 盈利情况，预计短期炼焦煤价格稳中偏强运行。 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台上发布致8 个国家领导人有关加征关税的信函。其中，巴西将被征收50%的 关税，利比亚、伊拉克、阿尔及利亚和斯里兰卡将被征收30%的 关税，文莱和摩尔多瓦的税率是25%，菲律宾的税率是20%。新 税率将从8月1日起生效。此前，特朗普已向日本、韩国等14个 国家发出了首批关税信函，关税税率从25%到40%不等。他同时 预告本周还会有更多此类信函发出。评：虽然各国对关税均有 所表态，但是关税扰动减弱，市场关注度有所降 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-白银】美国总统特朗普再次表示，美联储主席鲍威 尔应立即辞职。此外，特朗普还在社交媒体平台"真实社交" 上发文表示，经济顾问委员会的一项新研究发现，关税对通胀 毫无影响。事实上，研究表明进口价格实际上正在下降。特朗 普还表示，应该把这项新研究给"太迟先生"美联储主席鲍威 尔看看。评：市场目前认为7月不降息的概率为95.3%，9月不降 息的概率为34.2%，美联储7月降息预期减弱，但是美国经济韧 性好，利多风险资产。后续白银进一步上涨动力不强，或跟随 黄金走势。白银短期或震荡略偏空，关注黄金白银走势是否同 步。 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1262元/吨，震荡下行 趋势；纯碱周度产量70.89万吨，环比-1.1%；纯碱厂家总库存 180.95万吨，周上升2.41万吨；浮法玻璃开工率75.68%，周度 +0.68%；全国浮法玻璃均价1173元/吨，环比上日-1元/吨；全 国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6908.5万重箱，环比下降0.19%。 评：浮法玻璃开工较稳，库存小幅下降，华东市场暂稳，企业 多稳价出货，多数加工厂订单未有显著改善，操作刚需为主。 国内纯碱市场偏弱震荡，供应高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market trends, highlighting the strong performance of the stock market approaching the 3500-point mark, alongside a balanced and loose funding environment, with slight increases in long-term bond yields [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached its highest closing level since September 2022, just a step away from the 3500-point mark [4]. - The stock market is exhibiting strong performance, with a notable "stock-bond seesaw" effect observed as bond yields fluctuate [3]. Group 2: Funding Environment - The central bank conducted a 690 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 1310 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 620 billion yuan [1]. - The funding rates remain stable, with DR001 around 1.31% and DR007 around 1.46% [1]. Group 3: Interest Rates and Transactions - The weighted average rates for various repo codes show slight increases, with R001 at 1.37% and R007 at 1.51%, indicating a minor upward trend in interest rates [2]. - The trading volume for R007 increased by 1537.10 million yuan, reflecting active market participation [2].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】欧佩克+的八个产油国在8月3日继续举行会 议，以审查市场状况、合规情况和补偿事宜。依据列表，8月份 沙特阿拉伯原油日产量可以达到975.6万桶；俄罗斯原油日产量 可以达到934.4万桶。伊拉克原油日产量可以达到417.1万桶， 阿联酋原油日产量可以达到327.2万桶；科威特原油日产量可以 达到251.8万桶；哈萨克斯坦原油日产量可以达到153.2万桶。 评：OPEC+维持增产的立场不变。短期原油低库存，消费旺季， 成品油开工和加工利润尚可。中期重点关注6-8月期间OPEC+实 际产量落实情况。短期震荡，中期等待沽空时机成熟。适度提 防地缘演化。 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普接连在社媒上公布其对多个 国家发出的关税信函，截至目前，其已对14个国家发出最新的 关税税率威胁。其中日本、韩国、哈萨克斯坦、马来西亚和突 尼斯面临25%的关税税率，南非、波斯尼亚税率为30%，印尼税 率为32%，孟加拉国和塞尔维亚为35%，泰国和柬埔寨税率为 36%，老挝和缅甸税率为40%。上述关税将于8月1日生效。评： 关税扰动再起，避险情绪对贵金属或有一定支撑，但是本次关 税扰动或较弱，市场关 ...

Macro Economic Overview - The US job market is experiencing a mild cooling, with June non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000, a decrease of 73,000 from the previous month [2][3] - The unemployment rate in June stands at 4.1%, down by 0.1 percentage points from May, but the labor force participation rate has dropped to 62.3%, the lowest since 2023, indicating potential overestimation of the unemployment rate [2][3] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended order for asset allocation remains: equities > commodities > bonds > cash [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation of "incremental" policies for equities and the impact of the "stock-bond seesaw" effect on the bond market [4][39] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.54% this week, with the leading sectors being steel (5.27%), banking (3.78%), and building materials (3.63%) [39][40] - The ten-year government bond yield remained stable at 1.64%, while the ten-year government bond futures increased by 0.04% [12][44] Economic Data Insights - Internet enterprises in China reported a revenue of 773.5 billion yuan in the first five months, a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, while total profits decreased by 2.2% [25] - The construction material inventory increased by 50,000 tons in the week of July 4, indicating a potential rise in supply [26][30] Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is focusing on optimizing capital market mechanisms to enhance the efficiency of resource allocation towards high-potential sectors [39][41] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is emphasizing the need for precise policies to stabilize the real estate market, encouraging local governments to take responsibility [42]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-聚丙烯】 华东拉丝级聚丙烯主流价7147元/吨，下 降1元/吨；聚丙烯产能利用率77.23%，较上日-0.29%；下游行 业平均开工49.05%，周下降0.58个百分点；聚丙烯商业库存 78.51万吨，周下降0.07万吨；两油聚烯烃库存71万吨，较昨日 持平。评：近期聚丙烯开工受检修影响有所下降，镇海炼化4PP 新装置顺利投产，整体供应仍充裕。近期聚丙烯商业库存偏稳 运行，高于前两年同期值，在供需宽松背景下，预计商业库存 阶段性仍高位运行。受传统淡季效应影响，制品行业订单量同 比下滑，聚丙烯接货积极性欠佳，交投氛围偏淡。预计PP 09合 约短期震荡运行，上方压力7120一线，建议观望。 【短评-黄金】美国财长贝森特称，贸易谈判的最后阶段出 现僵局，未来72小时在贸易谈判方面将会非常繁忙，未来几天 可能会有几项重大公告，贸易谈判的重点是占美国贸易赤字95% 的18个国家，8月1日的最后期限已在致各国的信函中说明；若8 月1日前未能达成协议，关税将恢复至4月水平。评：贸易谈判 仍然存在变数，但是市场对该消息较为平淡。美国非农大幅超 预期，市场降低了对7月降息的押注，黄金进一步上 ...

本周A股市场上行，上证指数创年内新高3497.23点后回落，最终收于3472.32点。中美双 方团队正在加紧落实伦敦框架有关成果，A股新开户数快速增长等为市场上涨提供了良好氛 围，同时银行板块稳步上涨，热点板块轮动形成一定赚钱效应，最终促成市场较好表现。但 沪深两市成交额略减，日均成交额相比前周减少392亿元。港股表现较弱，恒生指数和恒生 科技指数本周均下行，港股互联网、港股消费下行对港股指数拖累较大。 股股债债跷跷跷跷板板？？不不存存在在的的 22002255年年66月月3300日日--22002255年年77月月44日日基基金金投投顾顾观观点点 本周A股、债市上涨，港股收跌，美股继续新高。具体来看，本周市场有以下几个重要方面： 01 具体到不同资产上， 我们本周观点如下： 股票 本周A股和港股一涨一跌，面对"新高"的A股和"不跟涨"的港股，很多投资者可能迫切想理清市场 脉络。其实港股的表现有点意外，但也在情理中，一方面，作为恒生指数和恒生科技重要成分的互 联网公司"内卷"令市场对中报业绩有所担忧，叠加618已过市场关注度下降，另一方面港股市场对 回报率的要求较高，当前港股的潜在回报率的确在历史相对低位，吸 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is currently experiencing strong performance driven by active credit expansion from commercial banks, despite a contraction in total demand from the real economy [2][3] - The banking sector has been a core driver of the market, contributing significantly to the rise of the Shanghai Composite Index, with the banking index up over 15% year-to-date [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying structural opportunities and directions rather than focusing solely on the overall market index performance [1][4] Group 2 - The report indicates that the current market environment is characterized by a shift towards quality growth, moving away from low-end manufacturing and investment-driven growth models [60][64] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to optimize resource allocation and enhance supply quality, which is expected to impact traditional industries such as steel, cement, and photovoltaic glass positively [54][55] - The report highlights that the current phase of the A-share market is in a transition from old to new economic drivers, with a focus on new consumption and technology sectors [4][9] Group 3 - The report notes that the inflow of southbound funds has resumed, with significant investments in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and high-dividend stocks, indicating a shift in investment focus [23][28] - The report discusses the importance of monitoring the balance of stock and bond asset allocation, as the low-interest-rate environment has led to a pronounced "see-saw" effect between equity and bond markets [50][52] - The report suggests that the current market dynamics are reminiscent of previous years, where consumer and technology sectors drove market performance amid structural adjustments [9][31] Group 4 - The report outlines that the current economic environment allows for a target growth rate of around 5% for the year, with no significant risk of economic slowdown [4][60] - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to lead to a reduction in excess capacity and improve profitability in various sectors, particularly in traditional industries facing intense competition [63][64] - The report emphasizes the need for continuous observation of the market's response to policy changes and economic indicators, particularly in the context of the ongoing trade negotiations and fiscal policies in the U.S. [11][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the environment of the stock - bond seesaw, convertible bonds maintain a relatively high valuation. Although the overall valuation premium has been compressed last week, some industries actively increased their valuations, and there were even cases where the underlying stocks fell while the convertible bonds rose. Currently, the cost - effectiveness of convertible bonds is limited, with the median price of the entire convertible bond market rising to 124 yuan and the valuation remaining at a relatively high level, narrowing the space for bond selection [2]. - Next week may be an important time point for the end of the current round of capital idling. It is necessary to focus on whether the stock - bond cost - effectiveness can return to favoring bonds. At the current level, long - term bonds have a slightly better cost - effectiveness than value - style equity assets. If the value - style equity assets continue to decline, a good entry window may appear [3]. - The latest convertible bond portfolio has a zero position in equity - style convertible bonds and is fully allocated to value - style double - low and low - price convertible bonds (bond - like assets), with a total position of 70%. Among them, value - style low - price convertible bonds have a long remaining time and the expectation of downward adjustment, and the liquidity brought by the delisting of bank convertible bonds should be gradually deployed at low levels. Value - style double - low convertible bonds currently have dual advantages in terms of underlying stocks and convertible bonds [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock - Bond and Convertible Bond Market Review - Last week, the theme of the equity market rotated rapidly. Affected by overseas news and capital market fluctuations, the stock - bond seesaw was obvious. On Monday, the stock index rose collectively, with military, stablecoin concept, brain - computer interface, and semiconductor leading the gains. The bond market adjusted comprehensively, with bearish sentiment prevailing. On Tuesday, after the cross - quarter, the capital market eased, the bond market strengthened, and the stock market fluctuated and adjusted. On Friday, the US June non - farm payrolls far exceeded expectations, reducing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July and September. The cross - border payment, bank, game, power, steel, and innovative drug sectors led the gains, and the bond market oscillated strongly without a clear trading theme [1]. Convertible Bond Market Analysis - Valuation: Currently, convertible bonds still maintain a relatively high valuation compared to the underlying stocks. Last week, the overall valuation premium was compressed, but some industries actively increased their valuations. The median price of the entire convertible bond market rose to 124 yuan, and the valuation remained at a relatively high level. The space for bond selection has narrowed, and the proportion of inert convertible bonds with pending valuation adjustment is the largest. The median conversion premium rate decreased slightly to 28.9% (historical quantile of 58%), the implied volatility remained at around 30% (historical quantile of 65%), and the median implied volatility difference remained at around - 15% (historical quantile of 36%) [2]. - Market sentiment: Last week, the average daily trading volume of the entire convertible bond market was 60.2 billion yuan, a 7% increase from the previous week. The trading of traditional speculative bonds such as newly issued bonds, low - rated convertible bonds, and double - high convertible bonds remained sluggish. In the volatile stock - bond market environment, the market tends to trade varieties with stronger option elasticity, such as small - cap stocks and newly issued AAA - rated convertible bonds, whose valuations are suppressed [2]. Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Market outlook: Next week may be an important time point for the end of the current round of capital idling. It is necessary to focus on whether the stock - bond cost - effectiveness can return to favoring bonds. At the current level, long - term bonds have a slightly better cost - effectiveness than value - style equity assets. If the value - style equity assets continue to decline, a good entry window may appear [3]. - Strategy recommendations: The top - down broad - based portfolio view is an 80% position in equity value - style assets and a 20% position in 30 - year treasury bond ETFs. The latest convertible bond portfolio has a zero position in equity - style convertible bonds and is fully allocated to value - style double - low and low - price convertible bonds (bond - like assets), with a total position of 70%. The convertible bond broad - based portfolio underperformed the CSI Convertible Bond Index by 0.42 percentage points last week. Since its establishment in July 2024, it has outperformed the CSI Convertible Bond Index by 15.5 percentage points, with a maximum drawdown of 7.7% (compared to 7.5% for the CSI Convertible Bond Index during the same period) [4].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美国6月非农就业人口增加14.7万人，远超 预期的11万人， 4月和5月就业人数合计上修1.6万人。失业率 意外降至4.1%，预期为升至4.3%。美国上周初请失业金人数 23.3万人，创六周新低。评：美国非农大幅超预期，市场降低 了对7月降息的押注，黄金进一步上涨动力不足，如果美元持续 反弹，将利空黄金。市场关注地缘及关税扰动。黄金中期震荡 格局并未改变，关注美元走势，美元和黄金跷跷板是近期主要 逻辑。 【短评-原油】特朗普"大而美法案"结束对太阳能和风能 长期支持，为石油、天然气和煤炭生产营造友好环境，该法案 已获参众两院通过，待特朗普签署成法律；特朗普"大而美法 案"结束对太阳能和风能长期支持，为石油、天然气和煤炭生 产营造友好环境，该法案已获参众两院通过，待特朗普签署成 法律；贝克休斯公布的数据显示，截止7月3日的一周，美国在 线钻探油井数量425座，为2021年9月份以来最低，比前周减少7 座。评："大而美法案"为传统能源营造友好环境，关注7月6 日OPEC+产量政策，目前OPEC+维持增产的立场不变，需求偏 弱。短期需求旺季，低库存使得油价较抗跌，长期供需预 ...