Group 1 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is cautious about rising food prices potentially increasing the underlying inflation rate, which is close to its 2% target [1][2] - BOJ Governor Ueda indicated that inflation expectations are between 1.5% and 2%, the highest in 30 years, prompting the bank to maintain low interest rates despite rising food prices, particularly a 90% surge in rice prices [2] - Ueda mentioned that the impact of food price inflation is expected to diminish, but the proximity of underlying inflation to the 2% target necessitates careful monitoring of food price inflation's effects [2] Group 2 - The BOJ is closely monitoring economic risks from U.S. tariff increases and domestic inflation pressures to determine when to resume interest rate hikes [2] - Despite lowering forecasts due to trade policy uncertainties, the BOJ expects the core inflation rate to gradually approach the 2% target in the latter half of the forecast period (FY2027) [2] - Ueda stated that if new data increases confidence in the baseline scenario, the BOJ will adjust the degree of monetary easing through interest rate hikes as necessary [2] Group 3 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently trading around 143.90, down 0.15% from the previous close of 144.12, indicating limited upward momentum in the daily technical indicators [1][2] - If the USD/JPY fails to break above 145.00 and sustain upward movement, there is a risk of a pullback, especially if it drops below the support range of 144.00–143.65, potentially testing 143.00 or even the monthly low of 142.10 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Downward - driven commodities**: Coking coal, glass, methanol [1] - **Equity index**: Sideways [2] - **Treasury bonds**: Range - bound [2] - **Gold and silver**: Sideways to weak [2][4] - **Non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, nickel)**: Range - bound [4] - **Lithium carbonate**: Sideways to weak [4][6] - **Silicon energy**: Downward [6] - **Steel and ore (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore)**: Sideways to weak [6] - **Coking coal and coke**: Bearish [8] - **Soda ash and glass**: Bearish [8] - **Crude oil**: Sideways to weak [8] - **Methanol**: Downward [8][10] - **Polyolefins**: Downward [10] - **Cotton**: Sideways [10] - **Rubber**: Sideways to weak [10] 2. Core Views - **Commodity futures**: Coking coal, glass, and methanol have clear downward drivers. Hold previous short positions in JM2509 for coking coal, FG509 for glass, and MA509 for methanol due to supply - demand imbalances [1] - **Equity index**: The A - share market continues to trade in a narrow range with low volume. While the downside risk is controllable due to policy support, the short - term upward momentum is insufficient [2] - **Treasury bonds**: The bond market is under pressure. Although the long - term yield trend is downward, the current directional drivers are limited, and the odds are not favorable [2] - **Precious metals**: Gold prices are affected by short - term factors and lack upward momentum. It is recommended to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. Silver follows gold, and selling out - of - the money put options is also advisable [4] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Uncertainties in the macro environment and demand expectations affect prices. Copper, aluminum, and nickel are expected to trade in ranges, with supply - demand dynamics and policy factors influencing their trends [4] - **Lithium carbonate**: Supply reduction is limited, and demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices [4][6] - **Silicon energy**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak, putting pressure on silicon prices [6] - **Steel and ore**: Traditional demand seasons are ending, and supply pressure may increase. Cost reduction risks also exist, leading to a bearish outlook for steel and ore prices [6] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak, resulting in downward price trends [8] - **Soda ash and glass**: Soda ash production is likely to increase, and demand is lackluster. Glass demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline [8] - **Crude oil**: With the possibility of production increases, the medium - to - long - term oil price center is expected to shift downward [8] - **Methanol**: Supply is growing, and demand is weakening, leading to inventory accumulation and downward price pressure [8][10] - **Polyolefins**: Futures prices have reached new lows, and with lower costs and weaker demand, short positions should be held [10] - **Cotton**: Weather and demand factors need to be monitored. The market is expected to trade in a range [10] - **Rubber**: Cost support is weakening, and supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, leading to a downward price trend [10] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Futures - **Coking coal**: Supply is in continuous surplus, and previous short positions in JM2509 should be held [1] - **Glass**: Pessimistic demand expectations, and previous short positions in FG509 should be held [1] - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and previous short positions in MA509 should be held [1] 3.2 Equity Index - The A - share market is in a narrow - range, low - volume sideways trend. The red - chip defensive and technology - growth styles rotate rapidly, and funds are cautious. The downside risk is controllable, but the short - term upward momentum is insufficient [2] 3.3 Treasury Bonds - The bond market is in a weak sideways pattern. Although the central bank maintains loose liquidity, market concerns about redemptions are rising, and the bond market is under pressure [2] 3.4 Precious Metals - Gold prices are affected by short - term factors such as tariffs and geopolitics. It is recommended to buy on dips or sell out - of - the money put options. Silver follows gold, and selling out - of - the money put options is also advisable [2][4] 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Uncertainties in the macro environment and demand expectations affect prices. The supply of ore is tight, but the demand is cautious, and the market is expected to trade in a range [4] - **Aluminum and alumina**: The macro environment is uncertain. Alumina supply has short - and long - term differences, and prices may fluctuate. Aluminum is expected to trade sideways [4] - **Nickel**: The market is in an oversupply situation. Although the previous short - call option strategy can be continued, new short positions should be avoided due to policy uncertainties [4] 3.6 Lithium Carbonate - Supply reduction is limited, and demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices [4][6] 3.7 Silicon Energy - Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak, putting pressure on silicon prices. Attention should be paid to the furnace - starting situation in the southwest during the wet season [6] 3.8 Steel and Ore - **Rebar**: The traditional demand season is ending, and supply pressure may increase. Cost reduction risks also exist. It is recommended to hold short - call options or short the 10 - contract on rebounds [6] - **Hot - rolled coil**: External and internal demand is weak, and cost reduction risks exist. Short positions in the 10 - contract should be held [6] - **Iron ore**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination and short the 01 - contract [6] 3.9 Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking coal**: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak, resulting in inventory accumulation and downward price trends [8] - **Coke**: Terminal demand is in the off - season, and steel prices are falling, leading to a decline in production willingness and downward price trends [8] 3.10 Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda ash**: Production is likely to increase, and demand is lackluster. Short positions in the 09 - contract should be held, and new short positions can be taken on rebounds [8] - **Glass**: Demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline. Short positions in the FG509 contract should be held, and the buy - glass 01 - sell - soda ash 01 arbitrage can be continued [8] 3.11 Crude Oil - With the possibility of production increases, the medium - to - long - term oil price center is expected to shift downward [8] 3.12 Methanol - Supply is growing, and demand is weakening, leading to inventory accumulation and downward price pressure [8][10] 3.13 Polyolefins - Futures prices have reached new lows, and with lower costs and weaker demand, short positions should be held [10] 3.14 Cotton - Weather and demand factors need to be monitored. The market is expected to trade in a range [10] 3.15 Rubber - Cost support is weakening, and supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, leading to a downward price trend. The short - call option strategy can be adjusted and continued [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is adopting a cautious approach to interest rate cuts due to high uncertainty and inflation risks, indicating potential challenges ahead [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes highlight a consensus on the risks of inflation, suggesting that rate cuts may be difficult [1] - The expectation for rate cuts has been pushed back to September or December due to concerns over consumer inflation driven by tariffs [1] Group 2: Global Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 25 basis points in April, with expectations for further cuts later in the year [1] - The Bank of England reduced its key rate to 4.25% in May, with market expectations for only one more cut by the end of the year [1] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise rates around July, following a recent increase to 0.5% [1] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The 5-year U.S. Treasury auction showed strong overseas demand, reaching a historical high [1] - The upcoming maturity of U.S. Treasury bonds, totaling $1.2 trillion and $1.46 trillion in June and July respectively, may lead to liquidity shocks [1] - Japan's 40-year bond auction saw a bidding ratio at its lowest since July 2024, although results were better than the previous week [1] Group 4: Precious Metals Investment Outlook - Due to the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks, precious metal prices may experience fluctuations, with potential for recovery after initial declines [1] - Investors are advised to consider long positions during market pullbacks, paying attention to support and resistance levels for various commodities [1]

【铝】 隔夜沪铝偏弱震荡。近期铝市库存顺畅去库至低位，强现实局面维持，不过六月需求面临季节性转 淡和贸易摩擦的考验，沪铝在前期缺口20300元关键位置仍面临阻力，考虑逢高偏空参与。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 (原油) 隔夜国际油价小幅收涨，布伦特07合约涨1.07%。昨日第39届0PEC+部长级会议宣布维持25-26年产 量基线不变，并将根据成员国最大可持续产能制定2027年产量基线，5月31日自愿减产8国的快速增 产指引仍令市场担忧。昨日利比亚东部政府表示可能宣布油田和港口的不可抗力，尽管遭到利比亚 国家石油公司否认,相关供应风险仍对市场构成支撑。上周API美原油库存超预期下降423.6万桶, 关注今晚EIA库存结果。原油总体仍存OPEC+增产压力与供应风险并存的震荡期，关注供应风险明朗 后的再次做空机会。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属回落。美国国际贸易法院阻止美国总统特朗普的"解放日"关税生效,裁定特朗普征收 全面关税属于越权行为。特朗普政府将提起上诉，最终结果仍有待观望。美联储会议纪要显示由于 经济不确定性加剧,失业率和通胀率上升的风险增加,决策者观望的政策立场不应改 ...

2025年05月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随下跌 | 2 | | 铜：库存减少，限制价格下跌 | 4 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：继续下行 | 6 | | 锌：承压运行 | 8 | | 铅：区间震荡 | 9 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 10 | | 镍：弱预期与镍矿消息共振施压 | 12 | | 不锈钢：负反馈导致减产边际增加，深跌具有难度 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 29 日 黄金：震荡回落 白银：跟随下跌 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to oscillate and decline, while silver will follow suit [2][5]. - Copper prices are restricted from falling due to inventory reduction [2][10]. - Aluminum will trade within a range, and alumina will continue to decline [2][13]. - Zinc is under pressure, and lead will trade within a range [2][16][19]. - Tin will experience narrow - range oscillations [2][22]. - Nickel is pressured by weak expectations and nickel ore news, while stainless steel is unlikely to fall sharply due to increased marginal production cuts caused by negative feedback [2][28]. - The price of lithium carbonate may remain weak in the short term as the ore price continues to decline [2][34]. - The industrial silicon futures price hits a new low, and it is advisable to short at high prices. Polysilicon shows a weak spot market and a weak futures performance [2][37]. - Iron ore will oscillate weakly as downstream demand reaches a phased peak [2][41]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil will oscillate downward due to the anticipation of negative feedback [2][46][47]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese will oscillate at low levels as demand expectations weaken [2][51]. - Coke will oscillate at the bottom after the second price cut is implemented, and coking coal will also oscillate at the bottom with the arrival of environmental protection supervision teams [2][55][56]. - Steam coal will oscillate weakly as coal mine inventory increases [2][59]. - Logs will oscillate weakly [2][62]. - For p - xylene and PTA, go long on PX and short on PTA. For MEG, short unilaterally and go long on PTA while shorting MEG [2][29]. - Rubber will oscillate weakly, and synthetic rubber will perform weakly [2][32][34]. - Asphalt will oscillate within a range following crude oil [2][36]. - LLDPE will perform weakly, and PP prices will decline slightly with average trading volume [2][38][40]. - Caustic soda will trade in a range for the time being, and pulp will oscillate [2][41][43]. - Glass prices will remain stable, and methanol will perform weakly [2][45][46]. - Urea will oscillate with weak domestic demand and export support, and styrene will oscillate in the short term [2][48][50]. - Soda ash will see little change in the spot market [2][52]. - LPG will oscillate in the short term, and PVC will perform weakly [2][53][56]. - Fuel oil rebounded during the day session and gapped up significantly at night. Low - sulfur fuel oil is weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to narrow [2][58]. - The container shipping index (European line) will oscillate at a high level, and it is advisable to hold the 10 - 12 reverse spread [2][59]. - Staple fiber will trade in a range in the short term, and bottle chips will also trade in a range in the short term, with the suggestion to go long on processing fees at low prices [2][63]. - Offset printing paper will oscillate weakly [2][64]. - Palm oil will explore the bottom while oscillating due to ongoing risks in the producing areas, and soybean oil will trade within a range as the driving force of the soybean complex is weak [2][65]. - Soybean meal may oscillate weakly as overnight US soybeans closed lower, and soybeans No. 1 will oscillate weakly with stable spot prices [2][68]. - Corn will oscillate strongly, and sugar will break through the support level and decline [2][70][71]. - Cotton prices lack upward momentum as demand enters the off - season [2][72]. - For eggs, wait for the verification of culling after the Dragon Boat Festival, and for live pigs, passive inventory accumulation has occurred, and it is advisable to arrange for a trend reverse spread [2][74][75]. - Peanuts will oscillate [2][76]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate and decline, and silver will follow. The trend intensity of both is 0. The report provides detailed data on precious metals, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price spreads [2][5][6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are restricted from falling due to inventory reduction. The trend intensity is 0. The report presents copper - related data and macro and industry news [10][12]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum will trade within a range, and alumina will continue to decline. The trend intensity of both is 0. The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum and alumina and includes comprehensive news [13][15]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is under pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1. The report provides zinc's fundamental data and news [16][17]. - **Lead**: Lead will trade within a range, with a trend intensity of 0. The report offers lead's fundamental data and news [19][20]. - **Tin**: Tin will experience narrow - range oscillations, with a trend intensity of - 1. The report provides tin's fundamental data and macro and industry news [22][27]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is pressured by weak expectations and nickel ore news, while stainless steel is unlikely to fall sharply due to increased marginal production cuts caused by negative feedback. The trend intensity of both is 0. The report provides fundamental data and macro and industry news [28][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate may remain weak in the short term as the ore price continues to decline. The trend intensity is 0. The report provides fundamental data and macro and industry news [34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon futures price hits a new low, and it is advisable to short at high prices. Polysilicon shows a weak spot market and a weak futures performance. The trend intensity of both is - 1. The report provides fundamental data and macro and industry news [37][39]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore will oscillate weakly as downstream demand reaches a phased peak. The trend intensity is - 1. The report provides fundamental data and macro and industry news [41][43]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil will oscillate downward due to the anticipation of negative feedback. The trend intensity of both is 0. The report provides fundamental data and macro and industry news [46][49]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese will oscillate at low levels as demand expectations weaken. The trend intensity of both is 0. The report provides fundamental data and macro and industry news [51][53]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke will oscillate at the bottom after the second price cut is implemented, and coking coal will also oscillate at the bottom with the arrival of environmental protection supervision teams. The trend intensity of both is - 1. The report provides fundamental data and price and position information [55][58]. - **Steam Coal**: Steam coal will oscillate weakly as coal mine inventory increases. The trend intensity is 0. The report provides yesterday's internal market situation, fundamental information, and position information [59][61]. Agricultural Products - **Logs**: Logs will oscillate weakly. The trend intensity is - 1. The report provides fundamental data and macro and industry news [62][66]. - **P - Xylene and PTA**: Go long on PX and short on PTA. The report also mentions the trading strategy for MEG [2][29].

会议纪要显示，本月稍早的会议上，美联储决策者普遍认为，经济面临的不确定性比之前更高，对待降息适合保持谨慎，等待特朗普政府关税等政策的影响更 明朗，再考虑行动。 与会者一致认为， 经济前景的不确定性进一步增加，因此，在一系列政府政策调整的净经济效应更加明朗之前，采取谨慎态度是恰当的 。 而且，此次纪要中，联储决策者几乎全都表达了对关税长期推升通胀的担忧。继4月的上次会议纪要后，本次纪要中，联储官员再度警惕，联储货币政策委员 会FOMC可能不得不在抗通胀和保就业之间做出"艰难的取舍"。 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的记者Nick Timiraos指出，本次会议纪要中，美联储决策者暗示，他们担心关税大幅上调会推升价格，可能刺激通胀上行。鉴于关税 政策的不确定性加剧，联储官员重申需要采取"谨慎态度"。 Timiraos称，纪要显示，联储决策者基本都认为，经济的不确定性增加，失业和通胀双双上行的风险也增加。这让他们不会改变观望的政策立场。 重申完全有能力等经济和通胀前景更明朗再行动 三周前召开的货币政策会议上，美联储决定继续暂停降息，示警滞胀风险，声明新增失业率和通胀均上升的风险已增加这一表述，并重申经济前景的"不确定 性 ...

欧洲央行管委Knot：短期增长风险和通胀风险都偏下行。 中期通胀前景展望更加模糊。 ...

美国旧金山联储主席戴利（2027年FOMC票委）：美联储当前的政策合适；对通胀风险高度敏感。 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 4 月经济数据同比回落 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-20 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美联储官员频频为降息泼冷水 特朗普和普京的谈话结束，特朗普表态俄乌立刻谈判，但是分 歧存在的情况下，预计难以实现。 宏观策略（股指期货） 中国 4 月经济数据同比回落 综 4 月份经济数据同比增速回落，反映出外部冲击和内需走弱的双 重压力。下一阶段政策应竭力呵护房地产市场，持续巩固"止 跌回稳"态势，缓解居民资产收缩压力，释放消费潜力。 合 农产品（豆粕） 晨 美豆种植率高于预期 报 巴西 CNF 升贴水继续下降，国内进口大豆成本随之下行。随着 进口大豆到港及油厂开机增加，上周豆粕库存继续小幅上升， 昨日沿海豆粕现货报价以下跌为主。 有色金属（铜） 中国 4 月未锻轧铜及铜材进口量同比增加 0.2% 短期美元指数承压运行而支撑铜价，但国内基本面阶段转弱预 期升温而抑制铜价，总体上，铜价短期震荡偏弱运行可能性更 大。 能源化工（原油） 欧盟或向 G7 提议将俄罗斯石油价格上限降至 50 美元/桶 油价窄幅波动。 | 杨云兰 | 高级分析师 （农产品） | | --- | -- ...