Core Viewpoint - The escalation of the Middle East situation, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, has led to significant volatility in global markets, especially in oil and precious metals prices. Group 1: Conflict Overview - On June 13, Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, targeting multiple locations including energy facilities, which resulted in fires and explosions [1][3] - Iran retaliated with missile attacks on June 16, hitting key infrastructure in cities like Haifa and Tel Aviv, causing further damage [3] Group 2: Market Impact - The conflict has caused a dramatic increase in oil prices, with WTI crude oil surging over 14% on the day of the conflict, closing at $73.18 per barrel, marking the largest single-day increase since March 2022 [3] - Following the initial surge, WTI futures opened higher again on June 16, but the market showed signs of instability, with prices retracting before the close [3] Group 3: Supply and Price Projections - Analysts predict that if Iranian oil supply is disrupted, the global supply gap could reach 1.6 million barrels per day, potentially raising oil prices by $5 to $10 per barrel [4] - Morgan Stanley has revised its Q3 Brent crude oil price forecast to $67.50 per barrel, citing the conflict's impact on supply [4] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility due to geopolitical tensions, some analysts believe that the fundamental market dynamics will dictate long-term trends, with oil prices expected to stabilize above $60 per barrel in the coming years [5] - The ongoing geopolitical risks are seen as temporary shocks, with the underlying fundamentals remaining the primary drivers of market performance [5]

6月18日，燃料油期货跟随成本偏强震荡，截至发稿主力合约报3348.00元/吨，大幅上涨3.24%。 【消息面汇总】 6月17日，上期所燃料油期货仓单24750吨，环比上个交易日持平；低硫燃料油仓库期货仓单0吨，环比 上个交易日持平。 IEA月报：对可燃化石燃料（不包括石化原料和生物燃料）的石油需求现在可能最早在2027年达到峰 值。 库存方面，新加坡库存增加5%，ARA库存减少0.9%，富查伊拉库存增加20.9%，美国残渣燃料油库存 减少0.3%。舟山和新加坡的燃料油库存处于高位，现货端并不缺货。 机构观点 中泰期货：燃料油近期主要影响因素为地缘冲突，重点为伊朗国内炼厂是否为主要攻击目标，燃料油单 边价格将跟随油价波动，价格跟随原油。布伦特油价昨日最高涨至77美元区域，日内市场反应中东紧张 局势从双方热战转向伊朗政权的改变的可能，特朗普要求伊朗投降，近日特朗普将发表电视讲话，地缘 仍存不确定性，以色列打击伊朗能源设施，如果炼厂受损燃料油供应方面不确定性大增，昨日燃料油主 要反应地缘升级下的供应担忧，中东发电需求旺季叠加关税影响下的船运弱势互相影响，低硫燃料油在 成品油裂解利润偏弱下支撑减弱，船运弱势仍是持续 ...

6月18日早盘，国内期货市场原油主力合约2508持续领涨，对二甲苯、PTA、乙二醇、甲醇等化工商品 价格集体上行。截至上午收盘，原油主力合约涨幅达5.8%，最高报556.3元/桶，月内最大涨幅已超过 25%，其他主力合约中，对二甲苯早盘收涨4.61%，PTA涨4.25%，LPG、苯乙烯涨幅均超3%。 "从历史规律来看，中东的地缘冲突问题，往往导致油价出现脉冲式上涨，上涨空间一般在5美元/桶左 右，维持时间三天左右，除了重大突然性问题、油价上涨幅度更大之外，市场基本都提前消化预期，随 着各方反击、事态逐步消化，油价将陆续回落。无论是之前俄乌问题还是巴以问题，都是如此规 律。"对于近期国际油价走势，卓创资讯原油分析师朱光明认为，这次以色列问题，确实令原油价格上 涨明显，但是油价已经连续上涨，累计涨幅相对明显，事件影响基本消耗完毕，当然也需要警惕更大规 模冲突的可能性。 原油价格的波动，也对下游石化商品形成显著影响。 6月中旬，国内PP市场出现小幅上涨行情，截至6月13日，据卓创资讯数据统计，华北地区PP拉丝均价 收于7135元/吨，较5月底上涨100元/吨，华东地区PP拉丝均价收于7130元/吨，较上月底上涨1. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price of ethylene glycol (EG) has increased due to more EG plant shutdowns in Iran and the upward movement of crude oil prices caused by geopolitical conflicts. The EG futures and spot prices have both risen, with the main contract closing at 4400 yuan/ton (+0.59% from the previous trading day) and the East China spot price at 4470 yuan/ton (+0.74% from the previous trading day). The cost - push effect on EG is significant, and the EG market has shown an upward trend. The production profit of ethylene - based EG is - 40 dollars/ton (down 3 dollars/ton from the previous period), while that of coal - based syngas EG is 117 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan/ton from the previous period). [1] - In terms of inventory, different data sources show a decline in EG inventory at the East China main ports. The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 10.8 million tons, and the planned arrivals this week are 10.0 million tons. The inventory is expected to remain stable, but attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm under the influence of Iranian plant shutdowns. [2] - Regarding the overall supply - demand fundamentals, the domestic supply will gradually recover in June, with a low overall load and a positive de - stocking situation. Overseas supply is affected by the Iranian plant shutdowns due to geopolitical conflicts. On the demand side, there are new maintenance plans for bottle - chip factories, resulting in weak demand expectations. [2] - The trading strategy suggests a short - term long position, with a focus on the further evolution of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. There are no specific strategies for inter - period or inter - variety trading. [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The main EG contract closed at 4400 yuan/ton (+26 yuan/ton, +0.59% from the previous trading day), and the East China spot price was 4470 yuan/ton (+33 yuan/ton, +0.74% from the previous trading day). The East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 85 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan/ton from the previous period). [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG is - 40 dollars/ton (down 3 dollars/ton from the previous period), and that of coal - based syngas EG is 117 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan/ton from the previous period). [1] International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis on international price differences are provided in the text other than the mention of the chart "Ethylene glycol international price difference: US FOB - China CFR". [19] Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - There are new maintenance plans for bottle - chip factories, indicating weak demand expectations. Attention should be paid to the polyester production reduction actions after the significant rebound of raw materials and the restart progress of large EG plants. [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the EG inventory at the East China main ports was 61.6 million tons (down 1.8 million tons from the previous period), and according to Longzhong data, it was 56.4 million tons (down 3.4 million tons from the previous period). The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 10.8 million tons, and the planned arrivals this week are 10.0 million tons. The inventory is expected to remain stable. [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The geopolitical conflict between Iran and Israel is ongoing, causing the energy sector to trend strongly. The PG futures have continued to rebound. The spot prices in Shandong and Northeast China have risen slightly, while those in other regions have remained stable. Driven by international oil prices, the market atmosphere is positive, with smooth production and sales for upstream suppliers and active participation from downstream buyers. As the center of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, Iran's LPG supply faces a downward risk. If the conflict damages Iran's oil facilities or LPG export terminals, Iran's LPG production and exports may decline continuously, tightening China's LPG raw material sources and driving up the Asian and domestic LPG markets [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - **Regional Prices on June 17**: Shandong market: 4560 - 4700 yuan/ton; Northeast market: 4050 - 4210 yuan/ton; North China market: 4505 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market: 4580 - 4750 yuan/ton; Yangtze River region market: 4730 - 4880 yuan/ton; Northwest market: 4350 - 4450 yuan/ton; South China market: 4600 - 4750 yuan/ton [1]. - **July 2025 Second - Half Import Prices**: In East China, the price of propane is 640 US dollars/ton (up 13 US dollars/ton), and butane is 575 US dollars/ton (up 22 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 5055 yuan/ton for propane (up 100 yuan/ton) and 4542 yuan/ton for butane (up 172 yuan/ton). In South China, the price of propane is 645 US dollars/ton (up 22 US dollars/ton), and butane is 575 US dollars/ton (up 22 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 5095 yuan/ton for propane (up 171 yuan/ton) and 4542 yuan/ton for butane (up 172 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Iran's LPG Situation**: Iran's current monthly LPG export volume is around 1 million tons, with nearly 80% directly shipped to China. There were signs of reduced LPG shipments in June [1]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The market is expected to be volatile and trend strongly. Attention should be paid to the development of the Iran - Israel conflict [2]. - **Other Strategies**: No suggestions are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2].

2025年06月18日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘冲突缓和 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 3 | | 铜：伦铜现货强势，支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 氧化铝：大幅反弹 | 7 | | 锌：承压运行 | 9 | | 铅：短期区间调整 | 10 | | 锡：紧现实弱预期 | 11 | | 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 | 13 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：仓单持续减少 | 15 | | 工业硅：仓单持续性去化，关注市场情绪 | 17 | | 多晶硅：仓单未增，关注市场情绪 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：安检趋于严格，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：安检趋于严格，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 26 | ...

2025 年 06 月 18 日 合成橡胶：地缘问题反复，偏强运行 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 （07合约） | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 11,485 | 11,565 | -80 -47790 | | | | | | 111,310 | 159,100 | | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 16,181 | 18,319 | -2138 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 638,234 | 910,041 | -271807 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | 215 | 235 | -20 | | | 月差 | BR06-BR07 | | -11,485 | -165 | -11320 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts ease [2][4]. - Silver: Retreats from high levels [2][4]. - Copper: Strong spot market for LME copper supports prices [2][11]. - Aluminum: Oscillates with a bullish bias [2][14]. - Alumina: Rebounds significantly [2][14]. - Zinc: Under pressure [2][17]. - Lead: Adjusts within a short - term range [2][19]. - Tin: Tight current situation but weak future expectations [2][22]. - Nickel: Concerns at the mine end ease, and smelting supply has full elasticity [2][27]. - Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, with weak supply - demand and low - level oscillations [2][27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2508, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2508 were 785.08, 782.94, and 3406.50 respectively, with daily changes of - 0.91%, - 0.63%, and 0.06%. The previous closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2508 and Comex Silver 2508 were 8864 and 37.180, with daily changes of 0.07% and 2.23% [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump claimed full control of Iranian airspace; Israeli military said it destroyed Iranian uranium - enrichment facilities; US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month; US Senate passed a stablecoin bill; Bank of Japan maintained interest rates [5][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 0, and silver trend intensity is 0 [9]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 78,380, down 0.22%, and the night - session closing price was 78560, up 0.23%. The previous closing price of LME Copper 3M was 9,670, down 0.26% [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump's remarks on Iran; Chile's state - owned copper company's production increased by 20.5% year - on - year in April; Kakula Mine restarted operations; Peru's Condor - Teck copper project got environmental approval; Ivanhoe Mines revised its production target for Kamoa - Kakula [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [13]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20460, and the night - session closing price was 20585. The previous closing price of LME Aluminum 3M was 2545. The previous closing price of Shanghai Alumina's main contract was 2860, and the night - session closing price was 2896 [14]. - **Comprehensive News**: US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 1, and alumina trend intensity is 0 [16]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 21905, up 0.30%, and the previous closing price of LME Zinc 3M was 2660, up 1.28% [17]. - **News**: US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month; US industrial output declined for the second time in three months [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is - 1 [17]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 16860, down 0.71%, and the previous closing price of LME Lead 3M was 2006.5, up 0.70% [19]. - **News**: US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month; US industrial output declined for the second time in three months [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [20]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 263,730, down 0.29%, and the previous closing price of LME Tin 3M was 32,250, down 0.92% [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump's remarks on Iran; Israeli military's actions; US economic data; US tariff disputes; US stablecoin bill; Bank of Japan's monetary policy [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 0 [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 118,570, and the previous closing price of Stainless Steel's main contract was 12,480 [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario province may stop exporting nickel to the US; Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; an Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue maintenance; the Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban [27][28][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [30].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 18 日 LPG：地缘冲突升级，注意极端风险 | | | LPG 基本面数据 图 1：FEI 丙烷升贴水 图 2：美湾丙烷升贴水 资料来源：Argus，国泰君安期货研究 资料来源：Argus，国泰君安期货研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 研 究 所 期货研究 图 3：中东丙烷升贴水 图 4：运费 资料来源：Argus，国泰君安期货研究 资料来源：Argus，国泰君安期货研究 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2507 | 4,382 | -0.36% | 4,481 | 2.26% | | 期货 | PG2508 | 4,320 | 0.02% | 4,424 | 2.41% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2507 | 98,855 | -14358 | 37,734 | -3755 | | | PG2508 | 52,569 | 3085 | 53,341 | 3057 ...

2025年06月18日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：成本偏强，供应计划外下降，正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：伊朗多套装置停车，短期偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：地缘问题反复，偏强运行 | 7 | | 沥青：跟随原油高位震荡 | 9 | | LLDPE：短期偏强震荡 | 11 | | PP：现货持稳，成交偏弱 | 13 | | 烧碱：现货承压，期货补贴水 | 14 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 16 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 18 | | 甲醇：短期偏强运行 | 19 | | 尿素：出口驱动，偏强运行 | 21 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 23 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG：地缘冲突升级，注意极端风险 | 25 | | PVC：短期震荡，趋势仍有压力 | 28 | | 燃料油：窄幅调整，预计短期强势暂缓 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油：震荡走势为主，外盘现货高低硫价差收窄趋势暂缓 | 30 | | 短纤：关注成本波动率放大，高位震荡 | 31 | ...