Group 1 - The report indicates that the simulated portfolio performance remains mixed, with most strategies showing reduced returns except for some credit style portfolios. The city investment long-term and secondary long-term strategies achieved returns of 0.2% and 0.15% respectively [2][14] - In terms of heavy-weighted bond types, credit bond-heavy strategies generally outperformed interest rate bond-heavy portfolios. The average weekly return for credit style time deposit-heavy strategies decreased by 0.7 basis points, while the city investment heavy-weighted portfolio's average weekly return fell to 0.15%, a decline of 4.3 basis points from the previous week [2][18] - The cumulative investment returns for the city investment dumbbell strategy were -0.12% in Q1 and 1.85% in Q2 to date, indicating it is one of the more balanced strategies this year [2][18] Group 2 - The report highlights that the cumulative excess returns for duration strategies have outperformed sinking strategies over the past four weeks. The cumulative excess returns for the city investment dumbbell, broker debt duration, and city investment duration strategies were 45.7 basis points, 17.3 basis points, and 11.5 basis points respectively [4][30] - The report notes that the sinking strategies generally underperformed compared to duration strategies in the past month, with financial bond-heavy portfolios lacking aggressive attributes [4][30] - The report also states that the excess returns for short-end strategies are lacking, with the city investment sinking strategy's excess return significantly narrowing, and the time deposit strategy's return deviating from the benchmark by only 1 basis point [4][30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Leverage can be more aggressive, and positions can be heavier. The certainty of loose funds allows for a more active leverage strategy, and a heavier position can increase bargaining chips in subsequent market games [2][3][17]. - The growth of financing is mainly from the government sector, and the gap between deposit and loan growth rates is still being repaired. The risk of the bank's liability side has been significantly alleviated, reducing the risk of liquidity tightening [2][9]. - The two operations of the repurchase agreement mainly aim to reduce uncertainty, and the change in the scale of medium - and long - term liquidity injection this month may be small [2][11]. - The downward breakthrough of the overnight price center is related to the recovery of the large banks' lending capacity, and the downward trend of the capital price center has not reached its end [2][13]. - Seasonal fluctuations in capital prices will still exist. In the first and middle of July, capital prices may continue the downward trend, and the capital market may return to a stable and loose state [3][15]. Summary by Directory 1 Leverage can be more aggressive - **Previous Views Summary** - There is a possibility that the capital market will be more loosely liquid than expected. There is a chance that the capital price center will be below 1.4%. - The reasonable pricing center for the NCD of state - owned and joint - stock banks after the decline of capital prices in the future may be 1.6%. Currently, 1.7% is too high, and it has obvious allocation value, but it is difficult for the CD interest rate to decline significantly in June. - The main line of the bond market is the downward repair of liability costs and the return repair of position losses, which requires time. After the interest rate reaches a relatively low level, trading often fluctuates between "anticipating the market" and "falling behind" [8]. - **Financing and Credit Situation** - In May, credit growth was still weak. Corporate sector credit increased less year - on - year, and the long - term credit of the household sector showed a stable trend. Corporate sector bond financing increased slightly year - on - year, possibly related to the opening of the bond technology board. Government bonds increased by 236.7 billion year - on - year, and the growth of financing still relied on the government sector [9]. - **Function of Repurchase Agreement Operations** - The two operations of the repurchase agreement this month totaled an injection of 1.4 trillion, but considering the possible 1.2 trillion maturity in the same month, the net injection scale for the whole month is not large. The MLF and the repurchase agreement are currently in a relatively balanced state, and the space for large - scale incremental injection is decreasing. These two operations should be considered comprehensively [11]. - **Factors Affecting Capital Price Center** - The downward breakthrough of the overnight price center is related to the recovery of the large banks' lending capacity. After April, the liability risk problem of large banks has been significantly alleviated. The performance of the capital market in the past two weeks has verified that the large banks' lending capacity has recovered, and the downward trend of the capital price center has not ended [13]. - **Seasonal Fluctuations of Capital Prices** - In mid - June, there is the impact of the tax period, and in late June, the cross - quarter factor will dominate the trend of capital prices. Near the end of the month, fiscal funds may be released to supplement liquidity. In July, the tax period is relatively large, and the fluctuation of the capital market may increase. Before that, in early and mid - July, capital prices may continue the downward trend, and the capital market may return to a stable and loose state [3][15]. - **Bond Market Strategy** - Recently, the short - end and long - end of the bond market still have downward space, but the long - end space is still limited. The 1 - year treasury bond has returned to the recent low, and it is not difficult for it to break through downward. The downward range of short - end treasury bond interest rates can be larger than that of other short - end varieties, which may bring some changes to the flat treasury bond yield curve. Therefore, the leverage strategy can be more aggressive, and a heavier position can increase bargaining chips in subsequent market games [3][17].

Group 1 - The bond market has faced significant challenges in 2023, with fund managers focusing on maintaining stable net value curves and market predictions [1][4] - Future bond yields are unlikely to replicate the significant decline seen in 2022, with duration strategies expected to weaken marginally, making coupon strategies a more stable choice [1][4] - Recent adjustments in deposit rates by domestic banks have led to cautious investor sentiment regarding the bond market, with concerns over profit-taking and pressure on bank liabilities [2][3] Group 2 - Credit bonds have outperformed interest rate bonds recently, driven by a shift of funds from bank deposits to wealth management products due to lower deposit rates [2] - The performance of interest rate bonds has been lackluster, influenced by rapid market movements and weak expectations for short-term liquidity easing [2][4] - Future bond market dynamics will depend on fundamental economic conditions and the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) policy expectations, including potential resumption of government bond purchases [3][5] Group 3 - In a low-interest-rate environment, fund managers need to adopt more refined strategies, focusing on individual bonds and optimizing portfolio structures to maximize risk-return ratios [4][6] - The newly launched fund by the company, which has a 12-month holding period, aims to leverage a stable liability structure and employ a yield curve riding strategy to enhance positive returns [4][5]

Core Insights - The credit bond market has shown unexpectedly optimistic performance, with significant gains surpassing those of interest rate bonds, particularly from May 19 to May 23, 2025 [9][24] - The strategy of focusing on weak-quality city investment bonds with a duration of 2-4 years has been widely adopted by institutions, with an extension to around 5 years observed in recent trading [10][24] - The absolute yield and credit spread protection for credit bonds are currently insufficient, indicating a cautious approach is warranted despite the market's enthusiasm [4][24] Credit Strategy Insights - The yield of AAA and AA+ medium-term notes decreased significantly, with 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, and 5Y yields down by 1.5BP, 0.4BP, 2.4BP, 2.8BP, and 5.2BP respectively during the observed period [9][11] - The performance of weak-quality city investment bonds in the 2-5 year range has been particularly strong, with declines in yields exceeding those of comparable medium-term notes [10][24] - The market for super long-term credit bonds has shown signs of improvement, with a notable increase in buying interest, especially for real estate bonds and weak-quality city investment bonds [21][24] Market Dynamics - The average transaction duration for credit bonds has lengthened, reflecting a shift towards a more optimistic market sentiment [18][24] - The proportion of transactions below valuation for super long-term credit bonds has improved, with a significant focus on real estate bonds, which have seen yield declines of over 20BP [21][24] - The current market conditions suggest that there is still room for exploration in city investment bonds with yields above 2.2%, which constitute about 10% of the public city investment bonds [24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the initiation of a profit recovery cycle in the domestic market driven by low inventory levels and a rebound in the second-hand housing market [1][2] - The active pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a vibrant market, with CXO and innovative drug companies leveraging talent and technology barriers to mitigate overseas policy risks [2] - The ETF market in China is witnessing significant growth, with passive equity fund sizes expected to surpass active equity funds for the first time in 2024, indicating a new era of ETF innovation [2][3] Group 2 - The consumption sector is anticipated to enter a recovery window in the second half of the year, with a focus on traditional consumer leaders and emerging consumption trends [1] - Smart Beta ETFs are gaining traction, with the global Smart Beta ETF market projected to reach $2.24 trillion in 2024, reflecting a 21.4% year-on-year growth [3] - The fixed income market is expected to face challenges due to low interest rates, but short-duration investments in quality credit assets are seen as opportunities for excess returns [4][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the decline in government bond futures across various maturities, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment and liquidity conditions [2] - As of May 22, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has seen a recent average daily trading volume of 25.59 billion yuan over the past month, reflecting active market participation [2] - The liquidity environment is described as abundant, with monetary market rates dropping to around the policy rate of 1.40%, suggesting a supportive backdrop for bond investments [2] Group 2 - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has a current scale of 6.758 billion yuan, with a recent net inflow of 2.013 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [3] - Over the past five trading days, the ETF has experienced net inflows on four occasions, totaling 6.246 million yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 1.249 million yuan [3] - The ETF has achieved a one-year net value increase of 15.29%, ranking 3rd out of 378 index bond funds, placing it in the top 0.79% [4] Group 3 - The ETF has demonstrated a maximum monthly return of 5.35% since its inception, with a historical one-year profit probability of 100% [4] - The management fee for the 30-year government bond ETF is set at 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05%, indicating a relatively low cost structure for investors [4] - The tracking error for the ETF over the past year is reported at 0.071%, showcasing its effectiveness in mirroring the underlying index [4]

Group 1: Report Core View - As of April 18, the weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 1.95 years and 2.15 years respectively, both at relatively high levels since March 2021 [2][10]. - The coupon duration congestion index slightly declined, currently at the 45.7% level since March 2024 [12]. Group 2: All - Variety Term Overview - Urban investment bonds and industrial bonds' trading terms decreased slightly from the previous period but remained at high levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading terms of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 3.69 years, 2.97 years, and 1.93 years respectively. For other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities sub - bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.26 years, 1.79 years, 3.72 years, and 1.36 years respectively [2][10]. Group 3: Variety Microscope Urban Investment Bonds - The average duration of urban investment bonds continued to decline slightly, with the weighted trading term around 1.95 years. Sichuan provincial and Beijing district - county - level urban investment bonds had a trading duration close to 4 years, while the durations of Guangdong prefecture - level and Shandong provincial urban investment bonds shortened significantly. The duration historical quantiles of Zhejiang district - county - level, Beijing district - county - level, Shandong prefecture - level, Henan prefecture - level, and Jiangxi prefecture - level urban investment bonds exceeded 90%, with Beijing district - county - level and Shandong prefecture - level approaching the highest since 2021 [3][17]. Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading term of industrial bonds shortened from the previous period, generally around 2.15 years. The marginal trading term of the commercial retail industry shortened significantly to 1.39 years. Industries such as transportation and commercial retail were at relatively low historical quantiles, while industries like public utilities, food and beverage, building materials, and pharmaceutical biology were above the 90% historical quantile [3][21]. Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of bank perpetual bonds slightly shortened to 2.97 years, at the 36.30% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds significantly shortened to 3.69 years, at the 67.4% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of general commercial financial bonds shortened to 1.93 years, at the 33.9% historical quantile, lower than the same period last year [3][24]. Other Financial Bonds - In terms of the weighted average trading term, insurance company bonds > securities sub - bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at the 88.2%, 18.8%, 3.3%, and 84.9% historical quantiles respectively. The duration of leasing company bonds slightly increased from last week [4][27].

Core Insights - The report suggests that credit spreads may widen in the second quarter of 2025, while extending duration remains a favorable strategy [3][26] - The overall strategy for credit bonds indicates a potential decline in yields following government bonds, but increased supply and weakened demand may lead to passive widening of credit spreads [3][26] Market Review - Since the beginning of 2025, credit bond rates have generally increased, but the rise is less than that of government bonds, resulting in a compression of credit spreads, particularly in lower-rated bonds [5][8] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in net financing of government bonds compared to credit bonds, with the latter remaining relatively stable [14][25] Sector Strategies City Investment Bonds - Focus on opportunities for spread compression in high-quality city investment bonds from good regions, as policies are favorable for mitigating credit risks [3][51] - The new regulations from the exchange may lead to a decrease in supply of lower-rated city investment bonds, while good regional city investment bonds may see a more significant decline in supply [3][50] Industrial Bonds - Attention is drawn to the opportunities in state-owned real estate and construction bonds due to debt resolution policies, which are expected to accelerate cash flow for state-owned enterprises [3][61] - The report highlights that the safety of state-owned enterprise bonds is assured under supportive policies [3][55] Financial Bonds - The report emphasizes the potential for overall opportunities in financial bonds due to reduced supply pressure from perpetual bonds and the consolidation of rural commercial banks [3][70] - The ongoing reforms in rural commercial banks are expected to lower credit risks associated with financial bonds [3][73]

华润元大泓远利率债债券型证券投资基金 基金管理人：华润元大基金管理有限公司 基金托管人：杭州银行股份有限公司 送出日期：2025 年 3 月 31 日 华润元大泓远利率债 2024 年年度报告 基金管理人的董事会、董事保证本报告所载资料不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏， 并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带的法律责任。本年度报告已经三分之二以 上独立董事签字同意，并由董事长签发。 基金托管人杭州银行股份有限公司根据本基金合同规定，于 2025 年 3 月 28 日复核了本报告 中的财务指标、净值表现、利润分配情况、财务会计报告、投资组合报告等内容，保证复核内容 不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证基金一定盈利。 基金的过往业绩并不代表其未来表现。投资有风险，投资者在作出投资决策前应仔细阅读本 基金的招募说明书及其更新。 华润元大泓远利率债 2024 年年度报告 §2 基金简介 基金名称 华润元大泓远利率债债券型证券投资基金 基金简称 华润元大泓远利率债 基金主代码 019563 基金运作方式 契约型开放式 基金合同生效日 ...