Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company [1][8] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.56 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan, up 45.4% year-on-year [5][8] - The product structure is continuously optimized, with sales volume increasing by 2.0% year-on-year, outperforming the industry average [8] - The company is expected to enhance its profitability due to the continued growth of mid-to-high-end products and effective cost control measures [8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2Q25, the company reported revenue of 4.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, and a net profit of 0.94 billion yuan, up 43.0% year-on-year [5][8] - The company’s gross margin for 2Q25 was 47.7%, with a net profit margin of 19.8%, reflecting an improvement of 5.1 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 1.47 billion, 1.77 billion, and 2.04 billion yuan respectively [8] Market and Product Insights - The company’s beer sales in the first half of 2025 were 2.352 million kiloliters, with an average price of 3,358 yuan per kiloliter, indicating a price increase of 4.8% year-on-year [8] - Revenue from mid-to-high-end products reached 5.54 billion yuan, up 9.3% year-on-year, while ordinary products generated 2.36 billion yuan, up 1.6% year-on-year [8] - The company is expanding its market presence, with significant revenue growth in various regions, particularly in East China, which saw a 20.5% increase [8]

2025 年 8 月 11 日 公司研究 扣非归母净利润超预期，改革红利持续释放 ——燕京啤酒（000729.SZ）2025 年半年报点评 增持（维持） 当前价：13.12 元 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 28.19 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 369.79 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 8.69/14.25 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 53.54% | 股价相对走势 -10% 4% 17% 31% 44% 08/24 11/24 02/25 05/25 燕京啤酒 沪深300 上半年量价齐升，产品结构持续升级。 1）拆分量价来看：25H1 啤酒收入为 78.96 亿元，同比+6.9% ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 燕京啤酒（000729）2025 年中报点评 强推（维持） 业绩超预告，升级动能足 目标价：15.5 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年中报。25H1 公司实现营业总收入 85.6 亿元，同增 6.4%；实 现归母净利润 11.0 亿元，同增 45.4%，实现扣非归母净利润 10.4 亿元，同增 39.9%；单 Q2 公司实现营业总收入 47.3 亿元，同增 6.1%；实现归母净利润 9.4 亿元，同增 43.0%；实现扣非归母净利润 8.8 亿元，同增 38.4%，超出此前 预告上限。 评论： ❖ 风险提示：U8 推广不及预期，中高端市场竞争加剧，改革初期盈利波动性大。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 14,667 | 15,472 | 16,114 | 16,608 | | 同比增速(%) | 3.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Ninebot Company has shown strong growth in electric two-wheeler sales and profitability in Q2 2025, leading to an upward revision of the target price to RMB 75.02 and a buy rating [1][4]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Ninebot Company reported revenue of RMB 6.63 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 790 million, representing year-on-year increases of 61.5% and 70.8% respectively [2][3]. - The gross margin and net profit margin were 30.9% and 11.8%, reflecting increases of 0.5 and 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. Sales Growth - The sales of electric two-wheelers reached RMB 3.96 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 81%, and the volume sold increased by 77.3% to 1.389 million units [3]. - The average selling price (ASP) for electric two-wheelers was RMB 2,852, maintaining a high level [3]. Product Development and Market Expansion - The company launched new product series targeting female riders and sports performance, contributing to the optimistic sales outlook for the year [3]. - As of June 30, 2025, Ninebot had over 8,700 dedicated electric two-wheeler retail stores in mainland China, indicating ongoing market expansion [3]. Profitability Enhancement - The gross margin for electric two-wheelers was 23.7% in the first half of 2025, up from 21.1% for the entire year of 2024, indicating improved profitability [3]. - The company achieved a record high net profit margin of 11.8% in Q2 2025, with a combined sales, management, and R&D expense ratio of 17%, down by 1.1 and 1.2 percentage points year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter respectively [3]. Future Outlook - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upward by 3-4% to RMB 19.86 billion, RMB 24.15 billion, and RMB 27.62 billion respectively, due to strong sales growth and product upgrades [4]. - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been increased by 10%-12% to RMB 1.87 billion, RMB 2.49 billion, and RMB 2.96 billion respectively, reflecting enhanced profitability potential [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight revenue increase in the first half of 2025, but faced challenges in the second quarter due to weak domestic demand and increased competition in the air conditioning sector [1][2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 49.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.08 billion yuan, up 3.0% year-on-year [1][2]. - Q2 2025 revenue was 24.50 billion yuan, down 2.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.95 billion yuan, a decline of 8.3% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company’s revenue from domestic and overseas markets in H1 2025 showed a slight decline of 0.3% and an increase of 12.3%, respectively [2]. Business Segment Analysis - Air Conditioning Business: H1 2025 revenue was 23.69 billion yuan, up 4.1% year-on-year, but central air conditioning growth was under pressure, declining by 6.0% due to a weak real estate market [2]. - Washing and Refrigeration Business: H1 2025 revenue reached 15.39 billion yuan, a 4.8% increase year-on-year, with washing machine revenue growing by 37.6% due to technological upgrades [2]. - Automotive Thermal Management: H1 2025 revenue increased by 3.0%, benefiting from the gradual realization of previous new energy orders [2]. Cost and Profitability - The net profit margin in Q2 2025 was 3.9%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, despite a gross margin increase of 1.0 percentage points to 21.5% [3]. - The company faced a one-time expense impact from layoffs in the automotive thermal management segment, amounting to 1.9 billion yen [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in performance due to favorable weather conditions and the successful rollout of government subsidies [4]. - Internal governance improvements are expected to drive growth, with a focus on supply chain efficiency and cost reduction [4]. - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 2.68, 2.94, and 3.20 yuan, respectively, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Hisense Home Appliances, with a target price of 33 yuan, corresponding to a 12x PE for 2025 [2][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 49.34 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.08 billion yuan, up 3.0% year-on-year. However, Q2 2025 saw a revenue decline of 2.6% year-on-year to 24.5 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 8.3% year-on-year to 0.95 billion yuan [2][8]. - The external sales continue to grow, with overseas revenue increasing by 12.3% year-on-year, while domestic revenue slightly decreased by 0.3% [8]. - The air conditioning segment reported a revenue of 23.69 billion yuan in H1 2025, up 4.1% year-on-year, although central air conditioning faced a decline of 6.0% due to a weak real estate market [8]. - The washing machine business within the refrigeration and washing segment saw a significant revenue increase of 37.6% year-on-year, contributing positively to overall growth [8]. - The company is expected to recover growth in the coming quarters due to favorable weather conditions and government subsidies, despite facing high base pressure in Q2 [8]. Financial Summary - For 2024A, the main revenue is projected at 92.746 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 3.348 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 18.0% [4][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is adjusted to 2.68 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 10, 9, and 8 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8][9]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 69.702 billion yuan in 2024A to 84.298 billion yuan in 2027E, indicating a steady increase in financial strength [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hisense Home Appliances is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - Despite short-term pressure on revenue and profitability in Q2 2025, primarily due to a decrease in central air conditioning business share, intense competition in the home air conditioning sector, and adjustments in the three-electric business, the company is expected to achieve significant growth through its proactive overseas expansion, steady growth in overseas revenue, continuous upgrading of domestic and international product structures, and improved profitability in the ice-washing business. There is a considerable probability that the company will meet the performance assessment targets of its employee stock ownership plan, and recent personnel adjustments may bring new opportunities for the HVAC business [4][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 49.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.077 billion, up 3.0%. In Q2 2025, revenue was 24.502 billion, down 2.6%, with a net profit of 949 million, down 8.3% [12]. - The Q2 revenue decline was attributed to a decrease in central air conditioning sales amid real estate pressures, while external sales continued to grow rapidly, supported by brand expansion. The home air conditioning business faced fierce domestic competition, leading to slight fluctuations in sales [12][14]. Business Segments - The HVAC segment's profit margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points in H1 2025, while the ice-washing segment's profit margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 4.2%. The three-electric segment experienced losses in Q2 2025, primarily due to personnel optimization and currency exchange impacts [13][18]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.594 billion and 4.116 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to a current PE ratio of approximately 9.9 and 8.6, indicating a favorable valuation. The "Buy" rating is maintained based on these projections [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The report on Jinhuijiu (603919) indicates a significant adjustment in the liquor industry, with a downward revision of the target price to 22.0 yuan and a recommendation to hold the stock [1] Industry Overview - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase characterized by "policy adjustments, consumption structure transformation, and stock competition" [2] - In Q1 2025, liquor production continued to shrink, with a year-on-year decline of 7.1%, and the main sales price range has shifted from 300-500 yuan to 100-300 yuan [2] - Many liquor companies are experiencing pressure on revenue and profits in Q2 2025, with traditional consumption scenarios like business banquets facing ongoing challenges [2] Company Performance - Jinhuijiu's revenue and net profit have shown steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +11.0% for revenue and +9.9% for net profit from 2015 to 2024 [2] - The company aims for total revenue of 3.28 billion yuan in 2025, representing an 8.6% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 410 million yuan, up 5.2% year-on-year [2] - The product structure has shifted towards high-end products, with the high-end series (above 300 yuan) increasing its share from less than 15% in 2022 to 18.8% in 2024 [3] Market Dynamics - In Q1 2025, domestic revenue growth was only +1.1%, significantly down from +16.1% in 2024, while external revenue grew by +9.5%, slower than the +14.7% growth in 2024 [3] - The company is focusing on refined channel operations in the domestic market and strengthening banquet scene binding to avoid inventory buildup [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to have a dividend payout ratio of 64.0% in 2024, with a dividend yield of 2.6%, the highest since its listing [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.3 billion, 3.7 billion, and 4.3 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 400 million, 500 million, and 500 million yuan [4] - The company is assigned a target price of 22 yuan for 2025, based on a 27x price-to-earnings ratio [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Jinhui Liquor with a target price of Rmb 22.00, indicating an expected upside from the current price of Rmb 18.92 [2][5]. Core Insights - The baijiu industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase characterized by policy changes, consumption structure transformation, and intensified competition. The production in Q1 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 7.1%, with a shift in consumer focus towards lower price bands [3][11]. - Jinhui Liquor has set a pragmatic growth target for FY25, aiming for total revenue of Rmb 3.28 billion (+8.6% year-on-year) and net profit of Rmb 410 million (+5.2% year-on-year), aligning with industry trends [3][14]. - The company's product structure is evolving, with a notable increase in the high-end segment (over Rmb 300) from less than 15% in FY22 to 18.8% in FY24, while the low-end segment is contracting significantly [4][12]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for Jinhui Liquor are Rmb 3.3 billion in 2025, Rmb 3.7 billion in 2026, and Rmb 4.3 billion in 2027, with corresponding net profits of Rmb 400 million, Rmb 500 million, and Rmb 500 million [5][14]. - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to remain stable around 60%, with a gradual increase in return on equity (ROE) from 11.7% in 2025 to 13.5% in 2027 [10][14]. - The dividend payout ratio for FY24 is projected at 64.0%, with a dividend yield of 2.6%, marking a record high since the company’s listing [5][14]. Market Dynamics - The provincial market for Jinhui Liquor showed a modest growth of 1.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, significantly down from 16.1% in FY24, while the extra-provincial market grew by 9.5% [4][13]. - The company is focusing on refining its channel operations within the provincial market and expanding its presence in Gansu, Qinghai, and Xinjiang as core bases for growth [4][13].

Core Viewpoint - The polypropylene industry in China is experiencing a significant restructuring in its import and export dynamics, characterized by a trend of "internal reduction and external increase" in the first half of the year [1][2]. Industry Overview - From January to June, China's polypropylene imports decreased by 6.77% year-on-year, while exports increased by 24.05% [1]. - The expansion of domestic production capacity, competitive pricing, and diversification of export markets are the main drivers of this transformation [1]. - The global polypropylene industry is undergoing a restructuring due to the exit of European capacity and supply constraints from the Middle East, creating opportunities for Chinese exports [1]. Market Dynamics - Domestic polypropylene prices have shown a downward trend, leading to an increase in the price gap between domestic and international markets [2]. - The strong US dollar has suppressed domestic buyers' willingness to import, contributing to a continued decline in import volumes [2]. - New production capacities from companies like Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group and Shandong Yulong Petrochemical are expected to maintain a loose supply in the domestic market [2]. Export Growth - In 2024, global polypropylene production capacity is expected to increase by 5.28 million tons, with China accounting for 3.75 million tons, or 71% of the total [1]. - China's polypropylene exports are projected to reach 2.41 million tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 83.72% [1]. Company Strategies - Companies in the polypropylene industry are enhancing their export strategies to adapt to the evolving market landscape [4]. - Major projects contributing to capacity growth include Jineng Technology's 900,000-ton polypropylene project and Fujian Zhongjing Petrochemical's 600,000-ton project [4]. - Companies are focusing on expanding into emerging markets in Southeast Asia and South Asia, as well as mature markets in Africa and South America [5]. Product Development - Several companies are upgrading their product structures while expanding capacity, with a focus on high-end polypropylene products [5]. - The use of green hydrogen technology and integrated PDH processes is being adopted to reduce costs and maintain competitive pricing for exports [5]. - Investment in technology and high-end product development is crucial for enhancing international competitiveness and product value [5].